Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferromanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The glass market has weak demand and high inventory, with insufficient decline in production, leading to continued supply - demand contradictions and weak prices. The soda ash market may see increased production after the end of summer maintenance, and with new capacity coming online in the second half of the year, demand is expected to weaken further, intensifying the supply - demand imbalance [1]. - The ferromanganese and ferrosilicon markets are both in a situation of over - supply. They need to suppress production through losses, and their prices will follow the fluctuations of the sector [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass futures market fell sharply yesterday. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for rigid demand [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market opened low and moved lower yesterday. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid restocking, and prices have generally declined [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: Demand remains weak with no significant improvement, high inventory has great pressure to reduce, and production decline is insufficient due to remaining production profits in non - natural gas production lines, resulting in continued supply - demand contradictions and weak prices [1]. - Soda Ash: After the end of summer maintenance, production may gradually recover. With new capacity coming online in the second half of the year, demand is expected to weaken further, intensifying the supply - demand imbalance. The market needs to suppress capacity release through losses, and the premium in the futures market further suppresses prices [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis** - Ferromanganese: The sentiment in the ferromanganese futures market continued to cool yesterday. The main contract closed at 5,736 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97%. The spot market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with average trading volume [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market continued to fall yesterday. The main contract closed at 5,532 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%. The spot market sentiment is average, and prices have been slightly adjusted downward [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Ferromanganese: Production and sales have increased month - on - month, inventory has continued to decline, and costs have slightly decreased. However, the industry still has obvious over - supply, and production needs to be suppressed through losses [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Production and sales have increased, and factory inventory has decreased, but the absolute inventory is still high, suppressing prices. The industry also has obvious over - supply and needs to suppress production through losses [3]. - **Strategy** - Ferromanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: The operation rating is not clearly defined by text, indicated by 'なな☆' [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The operation rating is not clearly defined by text, indicated by '女女女' [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★, suggesting a more definite long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Coke**: ★★★, suggesting a more definite long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Coking Coal**: The operation rating is not clearly defined by text, indicated by 'な女女' [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★★, suggesting a more definite long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The operation rating is not clearly defined by text, indicated by '女女女' [1] 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The steel market faces a negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level is low. The downstream demand is still weak, and the market remains under pressure in the shock. The improvement of building material demand in the peak season needs to be observed, and the market expectation is still pessimistic [2] - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand of iron ore weakens marginally, and the reduction of hot metal production moves from expectation to reality. The market speculative sentiment fluctuates, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] - **Coke**: The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal remains at a high level in the off - season. The coke price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with high short - term volatility [4] - **Coking Coal**: The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal remains at a high level in the off - season. The coking coal price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with high short - term volatility [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese demand is good, the price has limited downward space, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [6] - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron demand is acceptable, the supply rebounds significantly, and it mainly follows the trend of silicon manganese [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - This week, the apparent demand for thread steel improved, production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand and production of hot - rolled coil both declined slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate [2] - The hot metal production decreased slightly at a high level, and the market faced negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level was low [2] - The real estate investment continued to decline significantly, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing gradually slowed down, and the overall domestic demand was still weak, while exports were expected to remain high [2] Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments declined from a high level but were still stronger than last year. The domestic arrival volume decreased, and port inventory decreased slightly this week [3] - Terminal demand continued to improve seasonally. Steel mills' profits weakened, but the willingness to actively reduce production was insufficient, and hot metal production decreased slightly [3] - Overseas interest - rate cut expectations increased, and domestic policy rumors about production restrictions were repeated. Iron ore supply - demand weakened marginally, and it was expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The price was weakly volatile during the day. Due to the approaching major event, the production - restriction expectation of coking plants in East China rose again [4] - The daily hot metal output increased, and the steel - making profit remained high. The coking industry proposed an eighth - round price increase, and the daily production increased slightly [4] - The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders decreased. The price was greatly affected by policies and had high short - term volatility [4] Coking Coal - The price was weakly volatile during the day. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions weakened, and the terminal inventory decreased slightly [5] - The total coking coal inventory increased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. It was likely to increase in the short term due to the resumption of production of previously shut - down mines [5] - The carbon element supply was abundant, and the price was greatly affected by policies and had high short - term volatility [5] Silicon Manganese - The price declined during the day and rebounded at the end of the session. Attention should be paid to the shipment of South32's Australian mine [6] - The hot metal output remained above 240, and the weekly production of silicon manganese continued to increase. The inventory did not accumulate, and the spot and futures demand was good [6] - The manganese ore price decreased slightly this week, but due to the approaching major event, manufacturers stocked up in advance, and the price had limited downward space [6] Silicon Iron - The price declined during the day and then rebounded. The hot metal output decreased slightly but remained above 240, and the export demand remained at about 30,000 tons [7] - The metal magnesium production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The overall demand was acceptable [7] - The silicon iron supply rebounded significantly, the market expected good demand, and the on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly. It mainly followed the trend of silicon manganese [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - As the Politburo meeting concludes and the sentiment related to "anti - involution" cools down, the market sentiment becomes rational, and the futures price trend weakens. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may not maintain the current level, and the futures price may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to continuously monitor the recovery progress of terminal actual demand and the support of the cost side for the finished product price [3]. - In the short term, the iron ore price may be slightly adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the contradiction between high hot metal production and terminal demand will further intensify. Also, follow - up actions of blast furnace enterprises regarding the production suspension of Tangshan independent rolling enterprises need to be monitored [6]. - In the short - term market environment controlled by emotions, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, and it is advisable to wait and see. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations but should control margin (cash flow) safety [10]. - It is expected that the industrial silicon price will fluctuate weakly, with support at 8000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely, with support levels at 47000 and 44000 yuan/ton respectively [14][16]. - In the short term, it is expected that glass and soda ash will fluctuate. In the long term, glass prices will fluctuate with macro - sentiment, and soda ash prices are expected to gradually increase in the price center, but their upward space is limited [18][19]. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3188 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 119412 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10357 tons. The main contract position was 1.617947 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 18597 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3439 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.203%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 78386 tons, with no month - on - month change. The main contract position was 1.255562 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 36269 lots [2]. - **Market Situation**: The export volume declined slightly this week, and the overall export remained weak. Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation speed increased. Hot - rolled coil demand recovered significantly, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. Currently, both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are on the rise marginally, steel mill profits are good, and production remains high, but the demand side's carrying capacity is obviously insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 776.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.13% (+ 1.00), and the position changed by - 4631 lots to 447,300 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 895,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 772 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.22 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.39% [5]. - **Market Situation**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume both decreased in the latest period. The daily average hot metal production increased by 0.34 tons to 240.66 tons. Port inventories increased slightly, and the increase in steel mill imported ore inventories was more obvious. The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken, and the decline in rebar consumption data was significant [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On August 15, the main manganese silicon contract (SM509) fluctuated weakly, closing down 0.40% at 6026 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF509) closed up 0.17% at 5754 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Situation**: The market for "anti - involution" trading still disturbs the market, and relevant emotional disturbances will continue to affect the market. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon has not changed, and its production has shown an upward trend recently. It is expected that in the future, the demand for ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, or the entire black sector will likely weaken marginally [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) closed at 8805 yuan/ton, up 1.50% (+ 130). The weighted contract position changed by - 3135 lots to 531,988 lots. The main polysilicon contract (PS2511) closed at 52740 yuan/ton, up 4.58% (+ 2310). The weighted contract position changed by + 12752 lots to 322,861 lots [13][15]. - **Market Situation**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand of industrial silicon have not fundamentally changed. The production of polysilicon has increased week - on - week, and inventory depletion is limited. The polysilicon market is in a weak supply - demand situation [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1164 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and in Central China, it was 1090 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million heavy boxes (+ 2.55%), and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The spot price of soda ash was 1280 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons from Monday, with a growth rate of 0.94% [18][19]. - **Market Situation**: Glass prices have significantly corrected with the cooling of market sentiment, and the current market sentiment has been basically digested. Soda ash prices fluctuate widely with the coal - chemical sector. In the short - term, both are expected to fluctuate [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability, with a recommendation to wait and see [1] - Coke: ★☆★, implying a certain bullish trend [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, suggesting a certain bullish trend [1] Core Views - The overall steel market has complex supply - demand relationships. With the "anti - involution" influencing the trading floor, the market sentiment is cautious after sharp fluctuations [2] - Iron ore is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term due to factors such as supply recovery, stable demand, and macro uncertainties [2] - Coke is expected to rise in the short term, with its price being significantly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [3] - Coking coal is likely to see continued destocking in the short term, with high volatility and limited downside space, and caution is advised when chasing up [5] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel: This week, apparent demand and production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate. The overall market sentiment is cautious after sharp fluctuations, and the trading floor is mainly influenced by the "anti - involution" [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Demand dropped significantly, production declined, and inventory continued to accumulate. The overall demand in the downstream industries is weak, and the trading floor is affected by the overall commodity market trend [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are expected to increase seasonally in August, domestic arrivals have increased month - on - month, and port inventories have stabilized with no obvious pressure to accumulate in the short term [2] - Demand: Terminal demand is weak due to weather, but steel mills have insufficient motivation to cut production actively, and the demand for iron ore replenishment still exists. Future policy - driven production cuts need to be monitored [2] - Macro: There are still uncertainties in overseas trade, and the bullish sentiment from domestic "anti - involution" has cooled down. The short - term trend is expected to be high - level consolidation [2] Coke - Supply: The sixth round of price increase is pending, production has slightly decreased, and overall inventory has continued to decline slightly [3] - Demand: Downstream molten iron production remains high during the off - season, and traders have good purchasing intentions [3] - Market: The price is significantly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and it is expected to rise in the short term with high volatility [3] Coking Coal - Supply: Production has slightly increased, the spot auction market has improved, and overall inventory has decreased month - on - month, with production - end inventory dropping significantly [5] - Demand: Downstream molten iron production remains high during the off - season [5] - Market: The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with high volatility and limited downside space in the short term. Caution is needed when chasing up [5] Silicon Manganese - Supply: Weekly production has been increasing, but the rate is lower than expected. Manganese ore prices have slightly increased this week, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [6] - Demand: Molten iron production remains above 240, and the demand is relatively high. In July, supply exceeded demand, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline [6] - Market: The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [6] Ferrosilicon - Supply: Supply has slightly increased, and the market trading volume is average, with on - balance - sheet inventory slightly increasing [7] - Demand: Molten iron production has slightly decreased but remains above 240. Export demand is around 30,000 tons, and the secondary demand has slightly declined. Overall demand is acceptable [7] - Market: The price follows the trend of silicon manganese and is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 31, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is affected by factors such as macro - economic policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] - **Silver**: Experiences a high - level decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: The implementation of US copper import tariffs puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Shows a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][15][17] - **Lead**: An increase in inventory puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][21][25] - **Aluminum**: Experiences a slight oscillation; Alumina's price weakens; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum's trend strength is 0, alumina's is - 1, and casting aluminum alloy's is 0 [2][27][29] - **Nickel**: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Has a wide - range oscillation, and the mine - end disturbance has not materialized, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][35][37] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sentiment weakens, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] Energy - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, shows a relatively strong oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The sentiment is realized, with a wide - range oscillation. Both have a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55] - **Power Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price stabilizes with an oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60] - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it remains strong in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's futures price shows a relatively strong oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [2][4][52] Chemicals - **PTA**: Supported by cost, with a positive spread in monthly contracts [2] - **MEG**: The unilateral trend remains weak, with a reverse spread in monthly contracts [2] - **Rubber**: Oscillates [2][32] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Weak in the short - term, but the downside space narrows [2][34] - **Asphalt**: Follows the strong upward trend of crude oil with small - step increases [2][36] - **LLDPE**: The trend still faces pressure [2][38] - **PP**: The spot price oscillates with light trading volume [2][39] - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to delivery pressure [2][40] - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates weakly [2][41] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2][43] - **Methanol**: Oscillates under pressure [2][44] - **Urea**: The pressure gradually increases [2][46] - **Styrene**: Profits are compressed [2][48] - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [4][49] - **PVC**: Weakly oscillates in the short - term [4][50] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Supported in the short - term by the positive sentiment of crude oil and macro - economy [4][59] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress [4][59] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close lower, limiting the rebound of domestic soybean meal [4][61] - **Soybean**: Oscillates weakly [4][61] - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [4][63] - **Sugar**: Oscillates within an interval [4][65] - **Cotton**: The sentiment cools down, and Zhengzhou cotton futures decline [4][66] - **Eggs**: The spot price weakens [4][68] - **Hogs**: Attention should be paid to whether the early - month spot expectations can be realized [4][69] - **Peanuts**: The old crop has support at the bottom [4][70] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions [4][53] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Oscillate in the short - term [4][56] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillates at a low level with limited upward momentum [4][57] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillates relatively strongly [4][58] - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][61]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].

Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Views - Market sentiment is high, and steel prices are oscillating strongly. The glass and soda ash market transactions have improved, leading to a significant increase in the glass and soda ash futures market. The high - price sentiment in the ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon manganese markets is strong, and the market maintains on - demand procurement [1][3] Market Analysis and Strategy for Different Products Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market rose significantly yesterday. The downstream procurement sentiment has warmed up, and spot sales have improved. This week, the开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.1%, a decrease of 0.43% month - on - month. The manufacturer's inventory was 61.896 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 46,900 heavy boxes month - on - month, with significant destocking. However, the overall inventory remains high, and the destocking pressure is still large. In the long term, the glass supply - demand is still relatively loose [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market rose significantly yesterday. The downstream transactions were stable, mainly in a wait - and - see state. This week, the soda ash开工率 was 83.02%, a decrease of 1.28% month - on - month; the output was 723,800 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons month - on - month; the inventory was 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% month - on - month, with obvious destocking. Currently in the summer maintenance stage, the soda ash开工率 is expected to remain at a low level. With the production cut of photovoltaic glass, the demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further, and the annual inventory pressure is large [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon Manganese: The ferrosilicon manganese futures slightly corrected yesterday. The market sentiment was mainly wait - and - see, and the overall price was firm. The price in the northern market was 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was about 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon manganese output remained stable, the hot metal output rebounded, and the overall demand for ferrosilicon manganese maintained resilience. The inventory of ferrosilicon manganese manufacturers and registered warehouse receipts were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of ferrosilicon manganese. The shipment from the Australian end of manganese ore has basically recovered [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated strongly yesterday. The market sentiment in the ferrosilicon spot market was okay, and the price of ferrosilicon was running steadily and strongly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area was 5,400 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was reported at 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The output increased month - on - month, the demand slightly decreased, and the factory inventory was at a medium - to - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment improved, and the price fluctuated following the sector. In the long term, the ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively loose [3] Strategy - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]