交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-11-28 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆市场因感恩节休市，市场关注中国量采购美豆进展，美豆短期偏强震荡等待 中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升，美豆 走势带动和技术性震荡整理，需求短期改善和现货价格贴水压制盘面反弹高度，短期或 维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3000（华东），基差-55，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.29万吨，上周115.3万吨，环比减少13.89%，去年同期77.86万吨， 同比增加27.52%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方但方向向下。中性 5. ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-28 现货价格上涨，豆粕偏强震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3055元/吨，较前日变动+40元/吨，幅度+1.33%；菜粕2601合约2469元/吨，较前 日变动+30元/吨，幅度+1.23%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3080元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差 M01+25，较前日变动-20；江苏地区豆粕现货3000元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差M01-55，较前日变动-20； 广东地区豆粕现货价格2990元/吨，较前日变动跌+20元/吨，现货基差M01-65，较前日变动-20。福建地区菜粕现货 价格2650元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差RM01+181，较前日变动+0。 近期市场资讯，外媒11月26日消息：作物专家迈克尔·科尔多涅博士表示，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆产量预计为4900 万吨，高于美国农业部最新预测的4850万吨。 市场分析 当前国内供应依旧较为宽松，大豆持续到港，油厂开机率虽有所上升，但库存消耗较为缓慢，依旧维持在百万吨 左右，未来预计仍将维持宽松预期。下游饲料企业仍以滚动补库为主。USD ...

油料日报 | 2025-11-28 豆一稳势运行关注终端备货，花生产区强弱分化 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4106.00元/吨，较前日变化+12.00元/吨，幅度+0.29%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01-6，较前日变化-12，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北产区新季大豆行情保持稳健，农户手中余粮有限，惜售心态较为普遍，对价格形成一定 支撑。不过，从贸易环节来看，市场整体走货节奏平缓，多数粮商已完成前期还粮计划，购销活跃度不高，预计 短期价格仍将以平稳运行为主。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日 平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦 市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41% 蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16 元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/斤，较前一日平 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market shows mixed trends across various commodities, with geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and policy expectations influencing prices. Each commodity has its own unique supply - demand situation and price - influencing factors, and the overall market lacks a unified trend [2][4][21] - For financial products such as stocks and bonds, geopolitical and macro - economic factors also play important roles, and short - term caution is recommended [48][49] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Night - time international oil prices rose slightly. Market expectations for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict are still wavering. OPEC may maintain its production policy, and the increasing expectation of a December Fed rate cut boosts oil prices [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market showed a differentiated performance overnight. High - sulfur fuel oil rose slightly with the cost of crude oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil was weak. In the future, the overall contradiction is limited, with high - sulfur fuel oil affected by geopolitical risks and low - sulfur fuel oil having sufficient supply [22] - **Asphalt**: The commercial inventory of asphalt is decreasing faster. The December production plan is lower year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand will decline seasonally, and the market is expected to be loose at the end of the year, putting pressure on prices [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals showed a volatile performance. The uncertainty of interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects led to high - level oscillations. On the first day of the listing of platinum futures, the price fluctuated sharply, and attention should be paid to the strategy of shorting volatility [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The average copper price this year was strong. Next year, the growth rate gap between supply and demand may narrow, and the price increase will be supported by factors such as liquidity and demand for green carbon and intelligent computing. Short - term, a small amount of chasing up can be attempted [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The industry has limited contradictions, and the price will mainly oscillate [5] - **Zinc**: Overseas funds have a strong influence. The domestic ore supply is tightening, and the bottom support is strong, but the consumption outlook is under pressure. The short - term price will oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the decline of the external market has slowed down. The domestic supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price will oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated, and the market sentiment was cold. The cost support of stainless steel continued to decline, and the price is recommended to be shorted on rebounds [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin turned down. Shanghai tin broke through 300,000 yuan and then adjusted. Pay attention to the inventory changes this week. It is recommended to short on rallies and hedge risks with call options [11] - **Ferroalloys**: - **Silicon Manganese**: The market has an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee. The production is at a relatively high level, the inventory is slowly increasing, and the bottom support is expected to move down [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee. The demand has resilience, the supply is at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea futures price continued to rise, and the spot market rose slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the supply - demand surplus pattern is expected to continue [24] - **Methanol**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The short - term can consider unilateral long or positive spread trading, but the high inventory in ports may suppress the price increase [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The US gasoline crack spread has weakened. The domestic device load has been slightly adjusted down, and the price will oscillate [26] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The supply - demand structure has been slightly improved, the profit has been repaired, and the price will continue to oscillate [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene in Shandong is slightly tight, and the price has risen, but the cost pressure on downstream products may limit the increase. The supply of polyethylene is stable, and the demand is weakening [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating. The export situation may improve, and the price may stop falling and stabilize. Caustic soda is also oscillating, with high inventory and weak demand [29] - **PX & PTA**: The short - term supply - demand of PX is weakening, but the medium - term is expected to be strong. PTA is driven by cost, and the processing margin is expected to be repaired [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output has decreased, and the supply has improved marginally, but the medium - term is still weak [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - grade chip demand is weakening, and the cost is the main driving factor [32] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the supply is loose. Pay attention to the signing and implementation of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement and South American weather [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The overseas supply - demand of palm oil is weak, but the marginal negative factors have eased. Soybean oil is affected by the price of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus of the rapeseed market is on the customs clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. The external market has a short - term boost to rapeseed meal, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [38] - **Corn**: The north port corn price is firm, and the supply and transportation of northeast corn are a concern. The downstream inventory is low, and the replenishment intention has increased. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the northeast [40] - **Livestock & Poultry Products**: - **Hogs**: The number of fertile sows has decreased, and the industry is reducing production capacity. The short - term price is weak, and the long - term may form a double - bottom pattern [41] - **Eggs**: The market is trading on the expectation of a decline in future inventory. The long - term supply pressure is expected to ease, and the fundamentals are expected to improve [42] - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: US cotton has rebounded. The domestic cotton cost provides support, and the sales progress is fast. The cotton yarn market is weak, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [43] - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient. The expected sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is relatively good, and attention should be paid to the production situation [44] - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term price is strong, but the long - term may face inventory pressure. Pay attention to the de - stocking situation [45] - **Wood**: The futures price is oscillating. The low inventory provides support, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [46] - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price has continued to fall. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, the supply is loose, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47] Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) shows a differentiated trend. The far - month contract is under pressure from the resumption of navigation expectations, and the near - month contract is dragged down by the weak spot market. Consider the reverse spread strategy for near - month contracts [21] - **Financial Products**: - **Stock Index**: The stock market closed down, and the futures index also fell. Geopolitical and macro - economic factors have an impact. A wait - and - see and defensive strategy is recommended [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures closed down, and the market is trading lightly. The price will oscillate weakly in the range, and cautious operation is recommended [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oil prices are influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, and domestic industrial enterprise profits have declined. A - shares are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and the bond market still has bearish sentiment. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate, copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate favorably, alumina prices are expected to continue to be weak, casting aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in a wide range, lead prices are expected to stabilize and consolidate, tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile, industrial silicon prices are expected to be strongly volatile, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, nickel prices are expected to be strongly volatile, soda ash and glass prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure, coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate, and palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [2][3][4][6][8][10][11][12][13][15][16][18][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - SHFE copper closed at 86,990 yuan/ton, up 0.46%; LME copper closed at 10,930 dollars/ton, down 0.21% [30] - SHFE aluminum closed at 21,500 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; LME aluminum closed at 2,832 dollars/ton, down 1.13% [30] - SHFE zinc closed at 22,415 yuan/ton, up 0.27%; LME zinc closed at 3,022 dollars/ton, down 1.08% [30] - SHFE lead closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, down 0.64%; LME lead closed at 1,984 dollars/ton, up 0.51% [30] - SHFE nickel closed at 116,900 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; LME nickel closed at 14,840 dollars/ton, down 0.03% [30] - SHFE tin closed at 302,200 yuan/ton, up 2.14%; LME tin closed at 37,925 dollars/ton, down 0.43% [30] - COMEX gold closed at 4,189.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.15%; SHFE silver closed at 12,525.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.44%; COMEX silver closed at 53.83 dollars/ounce, up 0.12% [30] - SHFE rebar closed at 3,093 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,293 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [30] - DCE iron ore closed at 799.5 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; DCE coking coal closed at 1,071.0 yuan/ton, down 1.24%; DCE coke closed at 1,607.0 yuan/ton, down 0.74% [30] - GFEX industrial silicon closed at 9,115.0 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [30] - DCE soybean meal closed at 3,055.0 yuan/ton, up 1.33%; CZCE rapeseed meal closed at 2,469.0 yuan/ton, up 1.23% [30] 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, SHFE copper's closing price on November 27 was 86,990 yuan/ton, up 400 from the previous day; LME copper's closing price was 10,930 dollars/ton, down 23. SHFE copper's warehouse receipts remained unchanged, LME copper's inventory increased by 675 tons [31] - For nickel, SHFE nickel's closing price on November 27 was 116,900 yuan/ton, down 360 from the previous day; LME nickel's closing price was 14,840 dollars/ton, down 5. SHFE nickel's warehouse receipts decreased by 396 tons, LME nickel's inventory increased by 930 tons [31] - For zinc, SHFE zinc's closing price on November 27 was 22,415 yuan/ton, up 60 from the previous day; LME zinc's closing price was 3,022 dollars/ton, down 33. SHFE zinc's warehouse receipts decreased by 2,502 tons, LME zinc's inventory increased by 875 tons [34] - For lead, SHFE lead's closing price on November 27 was 16,955 yuan/ton, down 90 from the previous day; LME lead's closing price was 1,973.5 dollars/ton, down 8. SHFE lead's warehouse receipts decreased by 98 tons, LME lead's inventory increased by 400 tons [34] - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum's closing price on November 27 was 21,565 yuan/ton, up 30 from the previous day; LME aluminum's closing price was 2,831.5 dollars/ton, down 32.5. SHFE aluminum's warehouse receipts decreased by 76 tons, LME aluminum's inventory decreased by 675 tons [34] - For alumina, SHFE alumina's closing price on November 27 was 2,724 yuan/ton, up 4 from the previous day; the national average spot price of alumina remained unchanged. SHFE alumina's warehouse inventory decreased by 604 tons [34] - For tin, SHFE tin's closing price on November 27 was 302,200 yuan/ton, up 6,320 from the previous day; LME tin's closing price was 37,925 dollars/ton, down 165. SHFE tin's warehouse receipts increased by 34 tons, LME tin's inventory remained unchanged [34] - For precious metals, there was no change in the prices of gold and silver in various markets on November 27 compared with the previous day. The gold - to - silver ratio in SHFE decreased by 1.81, and the gold - to - silver ratio in COMEX decreased by 0.22 [34] - For other varieties, data such as prices, warehouse receipts, and inventories of rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal on November 27 and their changes compared with the previous day are provided [36]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Oils and Fats - Palm oil: As the end of the month approaches, the market focuses on export and production data, with potential downside risks. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise and could break through the 8,600 yuan resistance [1]. - Soybean oil: Chinese purchases of US soybeans boost CBOT soybeans, but domestic supply is ample and demand is weak, with inventory likely to increase and prices unable to rise in the short term [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The market supply is accelerating, and although southwest curing has started, demand support is limited. Pig prices are expected to remain weak and volatile, and the strategy of inter - month reverse spreads can be continued [3]. Meal Products - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern. With the one - price rising with the market and the basis slightly falling, the market is unlikely to see a continuous upward trend, and there is a risk of a decline after short - term chasing [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the short term, the market remains firm due to farmers' reluctance to sell, but there is still a large amount of grain to be sold, limiting price increases. Attention should be paid to the pace of corn supply and market sentiment [7]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar is expected to consolidate around 14 cents per pound. With new sugar from Guangxi on the market, the market is expected to remain weak and bottom - oscillating this week [11]. Cotton - ICE US cotton futures were closed for the US Thanksgiving holiday. Domestically, the high output of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season creates hedging pressure, but the firm basis and resilient demand support prices, so short - term prices may oscillate within a range [13]. Eggs - Egg prices have fallen below the feed cost line, and with reduced inventory at all levels and recovering demand, futures prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. Key Points by Product Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On November 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,560 yuan, up 1.18% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,224 yuan, up 0.91%; the basis of Y2601 was 336 yuan, up 8.39%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 34.03% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8,390 yuan, up 1.21%; the futures price of P2601 was 8,558 yuan, up 1.04%; the basis of P2601 was - 138 yuan, up 8.00%; the import profit in Guangzhou Port in January increased by 14.08% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10,110 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of OI601 was 9,772 yuan, down 0.48%; the basis of OI601 was 338 yuan, up 16.15% [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The basis of the main contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 60.71%; the price of LH2605 was 11,990 yuan, down 0.58%; the price of LH2601 was 11,585 yuan, up 0.39% [3]. - **Spot**: Prices in various regions showed mixed trends, with slaughter volume increasing by 0.47% daily, and most breeding profits decreasing [3]. Meal Products - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,030 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2601 was 3,055 yuan, up 1.33%; the basis of M2601 was - 25 yuan, down 266.67% [6]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,470 yuan, up 1.23%; the futures price of RM2601 was 2,469 yuan, up 1.23%; the basis of RM2601 was unchanged [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of C2601 was 2,243 yuan, up 0.36%; the basis decreased by 14.55%; the import profit increased by 0.93%; the number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing plants decreased by 32.43% [7]. - **Corn starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2,572 yuan, up 0.82%; the basis decreased by 53.85%; the starch - corn 01 spread increased by 4.11% [7]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of SR2601 was 5,403 yuan, up 0.45%; the price of SR2605 was 5,322 yuan, up 0.30%; ICE raw sugar rose 1.48% [11]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 5,450 yuan, unchanged; the basis decreased; the import volume increased by 37.50% [11]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of CF2605 was 13,605 yuan, up 0.15%; the price of CF2601 was 13,640 yuan, up 0.11%; ICE US cotton rose 0.59% [13]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B grade cotton rose 0.69%; the commercial inventory increased by 24.2% [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of JD12 was 2,947 yuan/500KG, up 0.96%; the price of JD01 was 3,282 yuan/500KG, up 1.77% [15]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price rose 1.20%; the egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 3.33%; the breeding profit decreased by 18.60% [15].

海南日报讯 (海南日报全媒体记者 孙慧)近日，海南省农业农村厅公布《2025年海南省农业品牌目 录》。 海南省农业农村厅要求，各市县农业农村局要优先组织并支持纳入目录品牌参展省级及以上农业展 会等活动。依托各级各类展会、展示展销、产销对接、贸易洽谈、人才培训等活动，支持入选省级目录 品牌开展专场(专题)推介。 据了解，海南省农业品牌目录实行动态管理，每年征集发布一次《海南省农业品牌目录》，有效期 为三年。海南省农业农村厅将对品牌目录实行动态管理，不定期组织开展实地调研和指导工作。如发现 存在违法违规行为等情况，一经查实，立即予以通告撤销。 经各申报主体申请、市县农业农村主管部门审核推荐、专家评审等程序，天涯贡此食等5个区域公 用品牌，正大(海南)兴隆咖啡产业开发有限公司等10家企业品牌，海南盛大现代农业开发有限公司等20 家农产品品牌纳入《2025年海南省农业品牌目录》。 ...

农产品期权 2025-11-28 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花弱势盘整，谷物类玉米和淀粉弱势窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The bottom of import cost may have emerged, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. There may be a reversal in the inventory situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try a callback - buying strategy [6][9]. - **Sugar**: The new sugar - making season is expected to see increased production in major producing countries, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell high and close positions when prices fall [11][12]. - **Cotton**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14][15]. - **Eggs**: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the market is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upside pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [16][17]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or do reverse spreads [19][20]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans were closed for a holiday. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable, and the cost of imported soybeans remained unchanged. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were mostly flat, with good trading and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, and last week's was 2.3344 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days decreased by 0.25 days to 7.98 days. Port soybean inventories decreased last week but were still high year - on - year. Soybean meal inventories rose above 1 million tons [2]. - **Strategy**: The bottom of import cost may have emerged, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [4]. Palm Oil - **Market Information**: From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased compared with the previous month, while production increased. In September, Indonesia exported 2.2 million tons of palm oil, lower than the same period last year and August this year. On Thursday, domestic oils continued to rebound, and foreign capital reduced short positions in palm oil [6]. - **Strategy**: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. There may be a reversal in the inventory situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try a callback - buying strategy [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,403 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton or 0.45%. Spot prices were stable. The new sugar - making season is expected to see a global supply surplus of 3.7 million tons, and Brazil's sugar production in the first half of November is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year [11]. - **Strategy**: The new sugar - making season is expected to see increased production in major producing countries, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell high and close positions when prices fall [12]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of the January contract was 13,640 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.11%. The spot price index rose. Spinning mill operating rates decreased slightly, and commercial cotton inventories increased year - on - year. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to increase by 520,000 tons [14]. - **Strategy**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.03 yuan to 2.96 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and downstream digestion was average, with some improvement in local areas [16]. - **Strategy**: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the market is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upside pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [17]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices mostly fell, with slight increases in some areas. Market demand increased slowly, and supply was abundant. Slaughter enterprises still had the intention to suppress prices [19]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or do reverse spreads [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The trading of high - yield margins weakens, and there is a technical rebound [1]. - Soybean oil: It mainly fluctuates within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking Futures | Futures | Closing Price (Day Session) | Daily Change | Closing Price (Night Session) | Night - Session Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Palm oil main contract | 8,528 yuan/ton | 1.04% | 8,598 yuan/ton | 0.82% | | Soybean oil main contract | 8,224 yuan/ton | 0.91% | 8,236 yuan/ton | 0.15% | | Rapeseed oil main contract | 9,772 yuan/ton | - 0.48% | 9,793 yuan/ton | 0.21% | | Malaysian palm oil main contract | 4,089 ringgit/ton | 1.67% | 4,121 ringgit/ton | 0.76% | | CBOT soybean oil main contract | 51.05 cents/pound | 0.79% | - | - | | Futures | Previous Trading Day's Trading Volume | Volume Change | Previous Trading Day's Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Palm oil main contract | 383,418 lots | - 120,764 | 365,152 lots | - 17,145 | | Soybean oil main contract | 225,589 lots | - 8,550 | 357,514 lots | - 25,925 | | Rapeseed oil main contract | 240,541 lots | - 70,749 | 181,941 lots | - 17,805 | [1] Spot | Spot | Price | Price Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 24 - degree palm oil (Guangdong) | 8,390 yuan/ton | 100 yuan/ton | | First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) | 8,570 yuan/ton | 100 yuan/ton | | Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) | 10,180 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | | Malaysian palm oil FOB (continuous contract) | 1,020 dollars/ton | 5 dollars/ton | [1] Basis | Basis | Value | | ---- | ---- | | Palm oil (Guangdong) | - 138 yuan/ton | | Soybean oil (Guangdong) | 346 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed oil (Guangxi) | 408 yuan/ton | [1] Spread | Spread | Previous Trading Day | Two Trading Days Ago | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rapeseed - palm oil futures main - contract spread | 1,379 yuan/ton | 1,458 yuan/ton | | Soybean - palm oil futures main - contract spread | - 304 yuan/ton | - 290 yuan/ton | | Palm oil 1 - 5 spread | N/A | - 58 yuan/ton | | Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread | N/A | 200 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread | N/A | 279 yuan/ton | [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SGS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 were 583,574 tons, a 40.77% decrease from the same period last month [2]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports to China in the first 10 months of this year decreased by about 29% year - on - year, facing challenges in competitiveness, logistics, pricing, and market positioning [3][4]. - GAPKI data shows that Indonesia exported 2.2 million tons of palm oil in September, lower than 2.26 million tons in the same period last year, and produced 3.93 million tons of crude palm oil in September [4]. - Continuous heavy rain in Indonesia's Sumatra Island caused floods and landslides, resulting in 52 deaths as of November 27 [4]. - US farmers are expected to reduce corn planting area and increase soybean planting area next year. Surveys show that 53% of economists expect soybean planting area to be 82 - 84 million acres, 40% think it will be 84 - 86 million acres, and 7% think it will exceed 86 million acres. S&P Global estimates that the corn planting area will be 95 million acres and the soybean planting area will be 84.5 million acres [5]. - Brazilian 2025/26 soybean crop production is expected to reach a record 178 million tons. Although planting was delayed in some areas due to abnormal weather, the planting area increased by about 1 million hectares. Brazilian farmers' agricultural profit is expected to drop from 45% to 33%, and agricultural costs will increase. The soybean price per hectare will reach 4,223 reais, higher than 3,918 reais last year, and the price per bag will drop from 109 reais to 106 reais [6]. - Brazil's Paraná state's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 21.96 million tons, stable compared with the October estimate and a 4% increase from last year [6]. - Anec data shows that Brazil exported 839,997 tons of soybeans, 595,009 tons of soybean meal, and 1,122,093 tons of corn from November 16 - 22, and plans to export 1,042,151 tons of soybeans, 850,134 tons of soybean meal, and 1,672,547 tons of corn from November 23 - 29 [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7].