Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is undergoing a profound transformation driven by structural changes in the geopolitical and economic landscape, rather than simple supply-demand cycles. Trends such as de-globalization, resource nationalism, normalized geopolitical conflicts, and accelerated de-dollarization are reshaping the pricing logic of commodities [2][3]. Group 1: New Pricing Logic of Commodities - The current resource scarcity in the commodity market is a result of the resonance between de-globalization and monetary credit restructuring, rather than a temporary supply-demand imbalance [5]. - The traditional pricing framework based on economic cycles and supply-demand gaps is inadequate to explain the current market volatility, leading to a new pricing era driven by "resource scarcity" and "monetary system restructuring" [3][5]. Group 2: Impact of De-globalization on Supply Chains - The rise of de-globalization has led to the fragmentation of global supply chains, with trade barriers and military conflicts causing significant disruptions in commodity flows, thus revealing resource scarcity [6][7]. - The shift from a cost-optimized global supply chain to a localized supply chain model has weakened the resilience of supply chains, increasing uncertainty in production and transportation, which in turn amplifies the perception of resource scarcity [7]. Group 3: Monetary System Restructuring and Resource Premium - The acceleration of de-dollarization and the ongoing dollar credit crisis have increased the resource scarcity premium, making commodities a key vehicle for hedging against credit risk [8][9]. - The decline in trust towards the dollar has led to a significant increase in gold reserves among central banks, with gold's share in global reserves rising to nearly 20%, the highest since the 1960s [8][9]. Group 4: Geopolitical Conflicts and Strategic Resources - Geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, have significantly impacted commodity supply chains, with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz causing severe disruptions in oil logistics [10][11]. - The blockade has led to a 90% drop in oil tanker traffic through the Strait, with potential production cuts looming if the situation persists, highlighting the strategic importance of resource control [11][12]. Group 5: Research Framework for Commodities - The analysis framework for commodities needs to evolve to capture the deep changes in pricing mechanisms, moving from a focus on economic cycles to a multi-dimensional approach that includes geopolitical risks, supply chain security, and strategic resource management [17][18]. - Future research should consider the integration of various time scales, from short-term geopolitical events to long-term structural changes in the global economy [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - As of the market conditions on March 13, combining the "Gain - Crowding" quadrant chart and ETF fund flow, the agricultural sector is worthy of continuous attention. The agricultural sector is steadily increasing in holdings, possibly due to capital betting on the price - rising logic. The breeding sector shows a net inflow of funds, and its upward space depends on policy strength. The coal and battery sectors have a net outflow of funds and may experience short - term fluctuations. The chemical sector has a high participation difficulty [1][23]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - From March 9 - 13, the market fluctuated and declined. As of March 13, 2026, the closing price of the Wind All - A Index was 6750.45, a 0.48% decrease from March 6 [6]. - The ChiNext performed better. From March 9 - 13, most major stock indexes pulled back. The ChiNext Index and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.51% and 0.76% respectively, while the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and the CSI 500 fell by 2.88% and 1.44% respectively [9]. - Stock - type ETFs maintained a net outflow. From March 9 - 12, stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of 20.904 billion yuan, with a larger outflow scale compared to March 2 - 5. Among them, broad - based index ETFs had a net outflow of 28.299 billion yuan, industry - index ETFs had a net outflow of 1.364 billion yuan, and theme - index ETFs had a net inflow of 4.807 billion yuan [11][12]. - At the industry level, batteries and coal led the gains. The battery index rose by 8.40%, and its crowding - degree quantile since 2020 rose to 68.6%, an increase of 37.4 percentage points. The coal index rose by 6.60%, and its crowding - degree quantile since 2020 rose 7.50 percentage points to 59.70%. Aerospace and military industry and non - ferrous metals fell significantly, and their crowding degrees declined from high levels. The agricultural and livestock sector rose moderately, with little change in crowding degree. The chemical industry index fell slightly, but its crowding degree increased significantly [15][16]. 3.2 Follow - up Attention - The agricultural sector is steadily increasing in holdings and is a direction for capital to bet on the price - rising logic. The agricultural ETF rose 2.68% this week, with a net inflow of 717 million yuan. It has had a net inflow for 9 consecutive days, with a cumulative 1.095 billion yuan, accounting for 29.48% of its fund scale [23]. - The breeding sector also shows a net inflow of funds, and its upward space depends on policy strength. The breeding ETF rose 1.54% this week, with a net inflow of 447 million yuan. If the policy implementation intensity increases, the price of live pigs may recover, and the sector still has upward space [23]. - The chemical sector has a high participation difficulty. From March 9 - 12, the chemical ETF fell 0.42%, with a net outflow of 557 million yuan. After the Spring Festival, the cashing pressure in the sector increased, and from February 24 to March 13, there was a cumulative net outflow of 1.39 billion yuan. The index crowding degree has risen to a relatively high level since 2020 [24]. - The coal and battery sectors have a net outflow of funds and may experience short - term fluctuations. The battery ETF and the coal ETF rose 8.49% and 6.63% respectively this week, with net outflows of 309 million yuan and 795 million yuan respectively. The battery sector may adjust in the short term, and the subsequent market of the coal sector is greatly affected by the situation in the Middle East [24].

Price Trends - The current price increase is a result of multiple domestic and international factors, expected to continue at least until mid-Q2 2026[3] - Domestic carbon reduction targets may catalyze supply-side policy intensification, institutionalizing the "anti-involution" trend[3] - Geopolitical conflicts have amplified oil price increases, with Brent crude expected to average around $80 per barrel this year, potentially keeping PPI positive[3][4] Economic Indicators - Post-holiday production and economic indicators are steadily recovering, with most year-on-year growth rates improving[5] - The oil transportation index (BDTI) saw a year-on-year growth rate drop from 248% to 180%, indicating a peak in trade disruptions[5][19] - PPI is expected to turn positive in March if Brent crude averages above $77 per barrel[3][14] Financial Market Insights - The dollar index has surpassed 100, indicating tightening liquidity, while gold prices are under pressure[4][17] - The 10-year government bond yield has slightly increased to 1.81%, reflecting rising concerns about input inflation[24][25] - The market is advised to monitor liquidity closely, as the value of oil and the dollar as hedges becomes more pronounced[4][17] Risks and Future Outlook - The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict presents high uncertainty regarding asset prices and could lead to significant market volatility[7][26] - The path of domestic demand recovery remains uncertain, influenced by the sustainability of price increases and external risk shocks[7][26]

Group 1 - The market is still further recognizing the expectation gap regarding the US-Iran conflict, with the core anchor being the ICE Brent crude oil price, which has seen significant fluctuations from around $80 to a high of $119 before retreating again [3][11][16] - The expectation gaps identified include the duration misalignment from "AI strike" to "mosaic quagmire," the physical rigidity of the Hormuz Strait blockade versus the illusion of increased production, and the US strategy of "watching while fighting" alongside a shift in the Middle Eastern landscape [3][11][15] Group 2 - The next important signal for the market is the convergence of volatility in oil prices, which is currently high and affects various asset classes; the focus should be on when this volatility will stabilize rather than the final price level of oil [4][16] - During periods of high volatility, investment strategies should focus on three levels of asset allocation: "certain varieties" such as shipping, gold, and upstream energy; "trend varieties" like defense and cybersecurity; and "non-consensus" allocations in agriculture and volatility strategies [4][16][17] Group 3 - In the medium to long term, as volatility decreases, investment strategies should pivot towards AI technology, cyclical sectors, and high dividend stocks, particularly in coal, non-bank financials, media, petrochemicals, and transportation [4][17][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining confidence in a bull market while adjusting expectations and seizing opportunities in physical asset allocations due to geopolitical shocks [5][19]

维持观望 甲醇周报 2026/03/14 张正华 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F0270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 01 周度评估 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 05 需求端 02 期现市场 行情走势 资料来源：五矿期货研究中心 02 期现市场 图1：甲醇指数 1,800.0 2,000.0 2,200.0 2,400.0 2,600.0 2,800.0 3,000.0 2025-01-01 2025-01-08 2025-01-15 2025-01-22 2025-01-29 2025-02-05 2025-02-12 2025-02-19 2025-02-26 2025-03-05 2025-03-12 2025-03-19 2025-03-26 2025-04-02 2025-04-09 2025-04-16 2025-04-23 2025-04-30 2025-05-07 2025-05-14 2025-05-2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, industry allocation should focus on two main lines: technology and security, reform and growth. The industry allocation perspective should be more "self - centered", aiming to consolidate national security through technological self - reliance and enhance endogenous growth resilience through comprehensive deep - seated reforms [49]. - In the technology and security aspect, it is optimistic about the domestic computing power and chip manufacturing industry chain, and pays attention to AI power construction, AI glasses new products, humanoid robots and ToB - end AI applications. It also focuses on relevant fields in the 14th Five - Year Plan and resource and energy security [49]. - In the reform and growth aspect, "anti - involution" related varieties will shift from trading policy expectations to pricing the inflection point of prosperity. It is necessary to pay attention to the fundamental bottoming of the electrolyte, positive and negative electrodes, separators, polysilicon and other links in the photovoltaic industry chain, as well as the improvement of prosperity brought about by capacity reduction in the chemical, steel and thermal coal fields. In terms of domestic demand, more attention should be paid to service and non - durable consumer goods [49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Market Performance - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was close to 2.5 trillion, with a contraction of over 140 billion compared to last week [8]. 3.1.2 Market Style Performance - This week, the ChiNext Index led the rise, and the dividend style had an overall outperformance. The ChiNext Index rose 2.51%, and the CSI Dividend Index rose 1.60%. Other indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.70%, and the SSE 50 Index fell 1.20% [12]. - In terms of market capitalization style, the relative advantage of small - cap stocks declined to 0 on a 30 - trading - day rolling basis. In terms of growth/value style, the relative advantage of growth stocks over value stocks fluctuated in the negative range on a 30 - trading - day rolling basis [15][18]. - This week, the performance of QFII and Northbound Stock Connect positions was weaker than the broader market [21]. 3.1.3 Market Sentiment - This week, the margin trading balance increased to around 2.66 trillion. The number of rising and falling stocks and the number of limit - up and limit - down stocks showed certain fluctuations [26]. 3.1.4 This Week's Sector Performance - Relevant charts show the rise and fall of SW primary and secondary industry sectors, but specific data is not described in text [32][34]. 3.2 Industry Trend Trading Review and Outlook 3.2.1 This Week's Strong Directions - There is a chart showing the rise and fall of this week's strong themes, but specific data is not described in text [41]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Industry Event Outlook - From March 16 - 19, the NVIDIA GTC Conference will be held; from March 17 - 19, the 2026 Optical Fiber Communication Conference and Exhibition will be held; on March 18, the 2026 Amazon Cloud Technology Going - Global Conference will be held; from March 19 - 20, the Huawei China Partners Conference will be held; from March 17 - 18, the 2026 Second Commercial Aerospace Industry Development Conference and 2026 Commercial Aerospace Exhibition will be held; on March 19, VOYAH will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange by way of introduction; on March 16, the press conference on China's national economic operation will be held to announce important economic data for January - February; on March 19, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced [48]. 3.2.3 2026 Industry Opportunity Outlook - Industry allocation focuses on two main lines: technology and security, reform and growth. In the technology and security aspect, it is optimistic about the domestic computing power and chip manufacturing industry chain, relevant fields in the 14th Five - Year Plan, and resource and energy security. In the reform and growth aspect, it pays attention to "anti - involution" related varieties and domestic demand in service and non - durable consumer goods [49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: After the conclusion of the National Two Sessions, the policy side is mostly favorable, but geopolitical risks persist. Stock indices may fluctuate in the short - term, and investors should wait patiently for stabilization signals. The repeated escalation of the US - Iran situation has pushed up inflation expectations due to rising oil prices, suppressing expectations of Fed rate cuts, and gold has entered a high - level consolidation pattern, with the risk of a breakdown downward [35]. - Medium - to long - term: Stock index valuations will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite. The stock index will maintain a wide - range consolidation in the medium term. The stimulative effect of US tax cuts on the economy will gradually emerge, and there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - In February 2026, China's CPI rose 1.3% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. PPI fell 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points. From January to February, imports increased 19.8% year - on - year, and exports increased 21.8% year - on - year, the highest growth rate since February 2022 [6]. - In the US in February, non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 92,000, the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, and core CPI rose 2.5% year - on - year, with the increase remaining the same as the previous month [20]. 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data - The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation has led to rising prices of international crude oil and chemical commodities, which helps repair the profits of upstream raw material processing industries. However, downstream enterprises still face high operating pressure, with the long - standing phenomenon of increasing revenue without increasing profits, and they have to reduce production and inventory [14]. - The margin balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded slightly to 2634.2 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 176.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net withdrawal of 101.1 billion yuan [17]. 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data - The growth of Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory has slowed down, and the COMEX gold inventory in New York has continued to decline, indicating a relief of delivery pressure [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report summarizes the weekly trends of the domestic futures market from March 9 - 13, 2026, covering various sectors such as agricultural products, non - ferrous metals and precious metals, black commodities, energy and chemicals, and financial futures. It analyzes the price movements, supply - demand fundamentals, and potential investment opportunities and risks in each sector. Summary by Directory I. Agricultural Futures - **Corn**: The spot price was oscillating strongly. The futures price had a weekly decline of 0.29%, closing at 2386 yuan/ton. The spot price is expected to correct in the short term, and the 2605 contract is short - term weak [6]. - **Pig**: The spot price was oscillating weakly. The 2605 futures contract had a weekly decline of 0.09%, closing at 11150 yuan/ton. The pig price may remain low in the short term [7]. - **Egg**: The spot price first fell and then rose. The 2605 futures contract had a weekly increase of 1.3%, closing at 3433 yuan/500kg. The egg price is short - term stable, but the supply pressure is significant [8]. - **Jujube**: The futures price was oscillating strongly. The CJ605 contract is in an upward channel. Consider short - selling after the upward momentum weakens [8]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar was running strongly. The domestic sugar supply - demand is neutral to bearish, but influenced by geopolitical conflicts and funds, the lower support is strong. Recommend a bullish attitude in the short term [8]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak, suppressing the price increase. In the long term, the supply is expected to shrink. The short - term price may oscillate between 15000 - 15600 yuan/ton [9]. - **Apple**: The decline of the main contract narrowed, and it is in a game between demand suppression and high delivery costs. It may return to a high - level oscillation pattern [10]. - **Log**: In the short term, the demand is seasonally increasing. In the medium term, the real - estate new construction is weak, dragging down the demand [10]. II. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Gold and Silver**: They slightly rose and then fell, showing a horizontal oscillation. Next week, pay attention to the support levels of 1100 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 20500 yuan/kg for Shanghai silver [11]. - **Alumina**: The 2605 contract rose this week. The supply is expected to be loose, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to participate at low prices [12]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The 2604 contract rose this week. The supply is tightening, but the short - term downstream support is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The 2605 contract was strong and oscillating. The supply is loose, but the geopolitical premium remains. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be bearish in the long term [13][14]. III. Black Sector - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They oscillated and rose, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widened. The rebar demand has started, and the hot - rolled coil supply is shrinking while the demand is rising. There is still upward space if the demand recovers as expected [15][16]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rose this week. The iron - water production decreased, and the steel - mill inventory is at a low level. The port inventory is high, suppressing the price. It is expected to have upward space in the medium and short term [17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They rose this week. The supply is loose, and the short - term demand growth is limited. They are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [19]. IV. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: It and related products rose. The release of oil reserves did not solve the supply gap. It is expected to be strong, and short - term operation or waiting and seeing is recommended [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It oscillated in a range. The price fell due to geopolitical conflicts and then was supported. It is expected to oscillate between 150,000 - 170,000 yuan [21][22]. - **Methanol and Urea**: Methanol prices rose significantly, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. Urea prices are expected to be strong in the range, with a price range of 1700 - 2000 yuan/ton [23]. - **Polyester**: The cost has increased, and the industrial chain is significantly differentiated. It is recommended to long the near - month contracts of good - fundamental varieties and short the far - month contracts of weak - fundamental varieties [24]. - **Rubber Series**: - **Natural Rubber**: It oscillated strongly. The overseas production areas are entering the shutdown period, and the domestic demand is recovering. The short - term bottom support exists [26]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The price rose, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level due to the influence of the Middle - East conflict on raw material supply [27]. V. Financial Futures Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Composite Index first rose and then fell. It is recommended to reduce the long - position of stock index futures and increase the proportion of CSI 300, or hedge risks through short - selling CSI 1000 or buying put options [28][29]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The prices of the main contracts fell this week. They may oscillate weakly under the influence of the Iranian situation and high oil prices [29]. Summary of Index Performance - The Nanhua Energy Index rose 14.12%, the Nanhua Petrochemical Index rose 10.77%, the Nanhua Coal - based Chemical Index rose 8.78%, the Nanhua Oilseeds and Oils Index rose 5.31%, the Nanhua Building Materials Index rose 3.51%, the Nanhua Black Index rose 2.69%, the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index fell 0.11%, the Nanhua Economic Crops Index fell 0.24%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell 1.52% [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, and the anti - involution of the chemical industry is still expected. The Middle East situation boosts energy and chemicals. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PP price is likely to rise in the near term. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the festival and the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Analysis - As of the week of March 13, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand recovered slowly due to low acceptance of high - priced raw materials. On March 13, the number of shutdown devices changed little. PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 75.5%, and the production ratio of standard drawstring was around 25.5%. Petrochemical inventory has been decreasing, and is currently at a neutral level in recent years. Although the IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery was slow. With ships attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's blockade statement, crude oil prices rebounded. After the Lantern Festival, downstream rigid demand was released, and the price of BOPP film rose [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upward, with the lowest price of 8314 yuan/ton, the highest price of 8763 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 8603 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.33%. The position increased by 9927 lots to 420700 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 8070 - 8620 yuan/ton [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 13, the number of shutdown devices changed little, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 75.5%, and the production ratio of standard drawstring was around 25.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 13, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71% week - on - week, and demand recovered slowly [4] - Petrochemical inventory: Petrochemical early inventory on Friday increased by 20,000 tons to 820,000 tons week - on - week, 45,000 tons higher than the same period last lunar year, and is currently at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose to $101/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $30/ton to $1100/ton week - on - week [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the trading activities and capital flows in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, emphasizing significant movements in specific stocks and sectors, particularly in the construction and chemical industries. Group 1: Trading Volume and Key Stocks - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 295.245 billion, with Cambricon Technologies and CATL leading in trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, respectively [1][2]. - The top ten stocks by trading volume included Cambricon Technologies (30.59 billion) and CATL (38.66 billion) [2][4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The construction engineering sector saw the highest net inflow of capital, amounting to 17.46 billion, with a net inflow rate of 2.08% [6]. - Other sectors with notable net inflows included power equipment (9.18 billion) and household appliances (8.08 billion) [6]. Group 3: Capital Outflows - The computer sector experienced the largest net outflow of capital, totaling -150.51 billion, with a net outflow rate of -8.09% [7][8]. - Other sectors with significant outflows included the new energy sector (-135.45 billion) and non-ferrous metals (-125.34 billion) [7]. Group 4: Individual Stock Capital Flows - The top stocks with net capital inflows included China Construction (20.38 billion) and NewEase (15.88 billion) [9]. - Conversely, the stocks with the highest net outflows included Huagong Technology (-19.64 billion) and Huasheng Tiancheng (-16.34 billion) [10][11]. Group 5: ETF Trading Activity - The A500 ETF Fund (512050) had the highest trading volume among ETFs, reaching 98.105 billion, with a 5.31% increase from the previous trading day [13]. - The Green Power ETF (159625) saw a remarkable 195% increase in trading volume compared to the previous day [14]. Group 6: Institutional and Retail Investor Activity - Institutional investors were active, with significant buy and sell transactions in stocks like Daikin Heavy Industries and Yingke Medical [16]. - Retail investors showed reduced activity, particularly in stocks like Guangxun Technology, which faced substantial selling pressure [17]. Group 7: Quantitative Fund Activity - Quantitative funds were notably active, with significant purchases in stocks like Chuanjin Nuo and Hongbaoli [18].