Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [9] Report's Core View - The performance of furnace materials is differentiated, and the upward momentum of finished products is weak. Iron ore prices are strong due to the expected release of restocking demand, while coking coal and coke prices are weak. The fundamentals of finished products in the off - season have limited highlights, and the futures prices have limited upward momentum. If there are still positive releases from the macro and policy fronts later, the phased upward opportunities can still be concerned [3][4][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Situation - The supply and demand of the industry are marginally weakening, in line with off - season characteristics. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. If there are positive macro and policy factors, there may be phased upward opportunities [5][8] 2. Different Product Analysis 2.1 Iron Element Products - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume has declined. The port inventory has slightly decreased. The daily average hot metal has recovered, but there is a seasonal weakening expectation. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly. For example, the port transaction volume is 60.6(-15.2) million tons, the swap main contract is 104.4(+0.01) US dollars/ton, and the PB powder is 795(+3) yuan/ton [13][14] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak. The arrival volume is low, and the total daily consumption has slightly decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. It is expected that the price will oscillate with the finished products. The average price of East China crushed scrap is 2147(+1) yuan/ton, and the screw - scrap price difference in East China is 996(+8) yuan/ton [15] 2.2 Carbon Element Products - **Coke**: The supply is stable, the demand is supported, and the inventory is low. The cost support has weakened, and the price is temporarily in a dilemma. The futures price is expected to oscillate with coking coal. The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is quoted at 1490 yuan/ton (-30) [16] - **Coking Coal**: The supply is slowly recovering, the import is at a high level, and the demand has slowed down. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to oscillate. The medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1430 yuan/ton (0), and the Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1378 yuan/ton (0) [17] 2.3 Alloy Products - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is strengthened, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure is large. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5600 yuan/ton (0) [21] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost valuation is firm, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron is 5150 yuan/ton (0) [22] 2.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply is disturbed, and the inventory is high. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1090 yuan/ton (-10), and the national average price is 1114 yuan/ton (-7) [18] - **Soda Ash**: The cost has increased, but the supply - demand is in excess. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the long - term price center will decline. The delivered price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1170 yuan/ton (-) [20] 3. Steel Products - The third - round and fifth - batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections may affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are weak, the steel mill profits are poor, the production has decreased, the demand has declined, and the inventory is still high year - on - year. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely. For example, the price of Hangzhou rebar is 3180 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260 (-30) yuan/ton [12] 4. Commodity Index - On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities decreased by 0.86% to 2234.87, the commodities 20 index decreased by 0.83% to 2534.70, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.88% to 2208.90. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.98% on that day, increased by 0.40% in the past 5 days, increased by 1.22% in the past month, and decreased by 5.49% since the beginning of the year [103][105]

首席点评： "小非农"有所改善，美股持续回落 美国 10 月 18 日当周首次申请失业救济人数 23.2 万，政府关门致官方报告持续缺席以来首次公布。"小非农" ADP 周度就 业数据：截至 11 月 1 日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少 2500 人。国务院总理李强在上合组织会议上表示， 高额关税等经贸壁垒增多使国际经贸秩序受到严重冲击，呼吁各方拥抱自由贸易、减少壁垒。他强调上合组织应强化安全 合作机制，推动科技交流，反对人为阻碍科技发展，并倡议建立新能源等合作机制，扩大中国－上合组织在金融、科技等 领域的协作平台。国家统计局公布数据， 10 月份，不包含在校生，全国城镇 16-24 岁劳动力失业率为 17.3% ， 25-29 岁劳 动力失业率为 7.2% ， 30-59 岁劳动力失业率为 3.8% 。 重点品种：股指、原油、玻璃纯碱 股指：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指回调为主，传媒和计算机板块领涨，煤炭和电力设备板块领跌，市场成交 额 1.95 万亿元。资金方面， 11 月 17 日融资余额增加 76.21 亿元至 24823.20 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预 计科技板块是长期方 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 18, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, while the glass market is likely to continue its downward trend in the medium term if there is no new market expectation stimulus [8][9] Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On November 17, the main soda ash futures SA601 contract oscillated with a slight upward trend. The closing price was 1,231 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.16%, with a daily reduction of 19,289 lots [7] - Fundamentally, enterprise production and sales are approaching balance, and inventory reduction is not obvious. Weekly soda ash production decreased 1.01% to 73.93 tons, still at a high level. The soda ash device is running stably, and individual overhauls have little overall impact. In the demand side, the shipment of Chinese soda ash enterprises from mid - to early November increased 1.57% to 74.62 tons. The production of float glass decreased 1.08% to 111.39 tons. The alkali plant inventory slightly decreased to 170.73 tons, in the middle range of the past six months [8] - In the short - term, the disk price is affected by the increase in light soda ash price and the expected equipment overhaul in late November, and is expected to maintain an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern of oversupply may continue [8] Glass - Fundamentally, the daily melting volume of float glass remains high, and the supply is supported. The photovoltaic glass is in a weak balance, and the overall glass supply is at a high level for the year. After the holiday, the factory inventory remains high. The real estate market has not shown a stabilizing trend, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise [9] - Recently, the disk price has been oscillating weakly. In the medium - term, if there is no new market expectation, the downward trend of the disk is difficult to change [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda ash market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][14][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the building materials industry [12] Core Insights - The report highlights that the decline in real estate and infrastructure data is expanding, with a focus on policy expectations. The sales data for real estate remains weak, with a significant year-on-year drop in sales volume and area in October [6][7] - Cement shipments have seen a slight increase, while glass inventory has decreased marginally. The report continues to recommend investments in the African supply chain and existing supply chains, while also highlighting opportunities in AI specialty fabrics [2][9] Summary by Sections Real Estate and Infrastructure - From January to October, the sales revenue and area of commercial housing decreased by 9.6% and 6.8% year-on-year, respectively. In October alone, the declines were 24.3% and 18.8%, indicating a significant worsening compared to September [6] - New construction and completion data for real estate are both weak, with completion area down 16.9% year-on-year from January to October, and new construction area down 19.8% [7] Cement and Glass Market - In November, cement demand in southern regions showed a slight recovery, while the decline in northern regions slowed. The cement shipment rate in key areas is approximately 46%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, but down 6.2% year-on-year [8] - The glass market is experiencing weak price performance, with a total inventory of 59.62 million weight boxes, a decrease of 540,000 weight boxes week-on-week [40][41] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies such as Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing in the African supply chain, highlighting their strong performance and market advantages [9] - For existing supply chains, it suggests focusing on stable leaders that may benefit from demand recovery and structural optimization, with specific mentions of companies like Sanke Tree and Tubaobao [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Fujian Provincial Quality Inspection Institute is actively promoting high-quality development through strategic collaborations with leading enterprises and tailored support for local economies, aiming to enhance industrial upgrading and regional revitalization [1][5]. Group 1: Strategic Collaborations - The Fujian Provincial Quality Inspection Institute has established strategic partnerships with 19 leading enterprises, providing personalized services and achieving 100% on-site response for 150 key companies [2]. - Collaborations include assisting companies like Fuyao Glass and Ruijie Networks in overcoming technical challenges and obtaining essential certifications [2]. Group 2: Local Economic Support - The institute has created quality assistance stations in industrial clusters, serving 41 companies and conducting over 600 tests, saving approximately 2 million yuan [3]. - Continuous support for small and micro enterprises in Nanan has led to the resolution of 239 quality management issues [3]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Industry Development - The institute has visited over 3,380 enterprises to address 5,267 technical challenges across 14 key industrial chains, including new energy and electronic information [4]. - It has been approved as a designated laboratory for electric vehicle power supply equipment certification, aiding local companies in obtaining necessary certifications [4]. Group 4: Future Directions - The Fujian Provincial Quality Inspection Institute aims to integrate into the dual circulation development pattern, collaborating with international organizations to help local enterprises expand into global markets [5]. - The institute emphasizes that inspection and testing are crucial for industrial upgrading, regional revitalization, and safety governance [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for short - term range trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][10][11][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; Soda ash 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [1][20][22][25][31]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples are expected to be slightly bullish; Jujubes are expected to be slightly bearish [1][34][35]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs' price rebounds are under pressure; Eggs' price increases are limited; Corn is in the process of bottom - building; Soybean meal is for range trading; Oils' price rebounds are limited [1][38][40][42]. Core Views - A - share market has hot - spot rotation, and the main line is unclear. Index futures may trade sideways. For Treasury bonds, the possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is relatively limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern [5]. - In the black building materials market, the coal market is weak, and steel prices may trade at low levels. Glass demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions [7][8]. - Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro and fundamental factors. Copper is in high - level oscillation, aluminum is in high - level trading with uncertainty, nickel has an oversupply situation in the medium - long term, and tin and precious metals are in range trading [11][12][17][18]. - Energy chemicals generally face supply - demand imbalances, with most products expected to trade sideways or weakly. Soda ash may have limited downside space [20][22][25][33]. - In the cotton textile industry chain, cotton and cotton yarn are under pressure due to loose supply - demand, PTA is in low - level oscillation, apples may be strong due to reduced production and quality, and jujubes' prices are weakening [34][35][37]. - In the agricultural and livestock market, pigs' supply is large in the short - to - medium term, egg supply is sufficient, corn is in the bottom - building process, soybean meal is in range trading, and oils' price rebounds are limited [38][40][42][46][53]. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - share market has个股涨跌互现, with hot - spot rotation. 1 - 10 national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 2%. Index futures may trade sideways in the short term and are long - term bullish [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The third - quarter monetary policy report maintains a prudent and loose tone. The possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern, waiting for policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend, with weak demand and widespread price cuts. Market participants are waiting and seeing [7]. - **Rebar**: Futures prices are below cost, with low static valuation. Macro利好 has been realized, and demand may decline. Steel mills may increase production cuts. Short - term steel prices are expected to trade at low levels, with the 01 contract focusing on the range of 3000 - 3100 [7][8]. - **Glass**: The main contract's open interest hits a new high. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 01 contract and sell call options [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is in high - level oscillation, affected by US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data in China. Fundamentally, raw material supply is tight, and consumption is average. Long - term demand is optimistic, but short - term risks exist. The main contract may trade in the range of 85000 - 88000 [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: Bauxite prices are stable, and alumina production capacity has decreased slightly. Aluminum production capacity is basically stable, and demand is affected by the off - season. Inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. Nickel supply is expected to be loose in the medium - long term, with an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: Domestic production has increased, and imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is recovering, and inventory is at a medium level. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US government policies and Fed policy expectations, prices are in range trading. There is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [18][19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Cost is under pressure, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports may slow down. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4700 pressure level [20][21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, the price is under pressure. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2400 pressure level [22][23]. - **Styrene**: Cost and supply - demand factors lead to a weak outlook. It is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 pressure level [23][25]. - **Rubber**: Raw material prices are high, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. It is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 15000 support level [25][26]. - **Urea**: Supply has increased, demand is diversified, and inventory is high. It is expected to trade in a wide range [27][28]. - **Methanol**: Supply has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. It is expected to trade weakly. Key factors to watch include macro changes, device maintenance, and coal prices [28]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and costs are under pressure. PE is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 6800 support level; PP is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 support level [29]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to contract, and demand is stable. The 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - demand is loose, and downstream consumption is weak. Prices are under pressure [34]. - **PTA**: Oil prices are weak, supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and prices are in low - level oscillation, focusing on the 4400 - 4700 range [34][35]. - **Apples**: Production and quality have decreased, and prices may remain strong [35]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition prices are falling, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to decline [37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Short - term prices are in a narrow range, and medium - long - term supply is large. It is recommended to hold short positions in 01, 03, and 05 contracts and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread arbitrage [38][39][40]. - **Eggs**: Supply is sufficient, and price increases are limited. The 12 - contract is recommended to short on rallies, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in a range [40][41]. - **Corn**: Short - term prices are supported by reduced supply, and medium - long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. The 01 contract is recommended to short on rallies, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 spread arbitrage [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is in a wide - range oscillation. Domestic supply may improve in December. The M2601 contract is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices at low points [46][47]. - **Oils**: Short - term price rebounds are limited, and it is recommended not to chase the rise but to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread and palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage [47][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - Currently, the industry's supply - demand situation is marginally weakening, in line with the characteristics of the off - season. This fundamental pattern is expected to continue, providing limited guidance on price trends. In the short term, the market will maintain an oscillatory trend. If there are still positive macro and policy signals in the later stage, staged upward opportunities can be observed [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased significantly on a month - on - month basis. Both Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries have seen growth. After reaching a peak, the arrival volume has continued to decline on a month - on - month basis. Port inventory has slightly decreased. Although iron ore replenishment demand has not been significantly released, there is still upward momentum in the short term after the previous rapid price decline. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with the finished products [2] Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices are in a dilemma of rising or falling, and the coke futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [3] Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Steel - The third round and fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have started, which will affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are generally good, but the profitability of steel mills is poor, and the production volume has decreased significantly. The demand has declined from a high level, and the overall inventory of steel continues to decline, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the futures will oscillate widely [7] Iron Ore - Port arrivals have declined on a month - on - month basis, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the average arrival volume is relatively stable. The daily average pig iron production has recovered on a month - on - month basis, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The overall inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. In the short term, after the previous rapid price decline, it is expected to oscillate strongly [8] Scrap Steel - The arrival volume at steel mills has slightly increased this week. The demand for scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased, while the demand in blast furnaces has decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, but the price has a certain cost - performance after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate with the finished products [9] Coke - After four rounds of price increases, the coking profit has improved, and the supply is temporarily stable. The demand is still supported, and the upstream inventory is low. In the short term, the supply - demand is still tight, and the inventory continues to decline, but the cost support has weakened. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal [11] Coking Coal - The supply is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [13] Glass - The supply is expected to be disrupted. The inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] Soda Ash - The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - The price of ferromanganese - silicon is supported by cost in the short term, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [17] Ferrosilicon - The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback of the recent decline in the steel market has ended, and short - term price increases are mainly due to short - sellers taking profits. Steel demand has entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [2]. - For iron ore, although the supply has recovered and high inventory suppresses prices, the short - term increase in hot metal production supports demand. In the macro - vacuum period, prices will operate within a shock range [5]. - For the black sector, as the time approaches December, the positive impact of macro - expectations on sentiment and prices is expected to increase. It is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The future price increase depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies [10][11]. - Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of "weak supply and demand", with short - term prices likely to be weak and volatile. Polysilicon is still fluctuating between reality and expectations, and prices are in a wide - range shock [15][17]. - For glass, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory, and weak demand, the short - term market will continue to be weak. For soda ash, with high supply and weak demand, prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [20][22]. Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3097 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.441%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3655 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 107385 lots. In the spot market, prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 30 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3302 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton (1.412%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 6484 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 23505 lots. In the spot market, prices in Lecong and Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar shows a pattern of both supply and demand decline and continuous inventory reduction, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, and inventory is accumulating against the season. In the short term, prices are likely to be weak and volatile, but there may be an inflection point in demand later [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 788.50 yuan/ton, up 2.07% (+16.00). The positions increased by 1019 lots to 48.14 million lots. The weighted positions were 90.75 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 53.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.38% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume has recovered significantly. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal output has increased, but the steel mill profitability rate is declining. Port inventory is accumulating. In the short term, prices will operate within a shock range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - The manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.77% at 5792 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 98 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF601) closed up 1.38% at 5566 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 34 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - As the time approaches December, the positive impact of macro - expectations on the black sector is expected to increase. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the operability is low [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9080 yuan/ton, up 0.67% (+60). The weighted contract positions decreased by 2209 lots to 401179 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 52655 yuan/ton, down 2.57% (-1390). The weighted contract positions decreased by 6818 lots to 234241 lots [16]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of "weak supply and demand", with short - term prices likely to be weak and volatile. Polysilicon is still fluctuating between reality and expectations, and prices are in a wide - range shock [15][17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1029 yuan/ton, down 0.29% (-3). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 11.10 million cases (0.18%) [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1231 yuan/ton, up 0.41% (+5). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 0.69 million tons (0.18%) [21]. Strategy Viewpoints - For glass, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory, and weak demand, the short - term market will continue to be weak. For soda ash, with high supply and weak demand, prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [20][22].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The float glass industry has faced severe challenges since 2021, including weakened demand, high inventory levels, and continuous price pressure due to the adjustment cycle in the real estate market [1][15] - The industry is expected to accelerate capacity clearance and transformation by 2025-2026, moving away from its reliance on the real estate sector [1][15] Group 2: Supply-Side Structural Reform - Supply-side structural reform was first proposed in November 2015, focusing on reducing excess capacity, improving total factor productivity, lowering enterprise costs, and preventing financial risks [2] - Significant progress has been made in eliminating excess capacity in key industries, including steel, cement, and flat glass, with 300 million tons, 400 million tons, and 150 million weight boxes of capacity eliminated respectively by the end of 2022 [3] Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market has shown significant policy-driven improvements, with a notable increase in new housing starts and sales from 2015 to 2016, but has since entered a downward trend [4][5] - By 2024, new housing starts are projected to drop to 7.39 million square meters, a 67% decline from peak levels in 2019-2020 [13][14] Group 4: Float Glass Demand and Supply Dynamics - The float glass industry is heavily dependent on the real estate sector, with 80% of its demand linked to construction activities [11] - The industry has experienced a significant drop in demand, with housing completion areas expected to decrease by 26.13% in 2024 [15] - Current inventory levels in the float glass sector are at historical highs, with total inventory reaching 63.14 million weight boxes, a 29.05% increase year-on-year [18] Group 5: Financial Performance and Profitability - The float glass industry has been in a prolonged state of loss, with average weekly profits for natural gas-based production lines at -172.70 yuan/ton [20] - The profitability of the industry is being affected by fluctuating raw material costs, with some production lines still maintaining profits due to lower costs of coal-based gas [20][21] Group 6: Future Outlook - The float glass industry is expected to undergo significant changes, with a focus on reducing reliance on the real estate sector and enhancing operational efficiency [15][21] - The ongoing adjustments in the real estate market and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies are likely to further influence the industry's dynamics and competitive landscape [12][21]

首席点评： 坚持扩大内需，着力推动市场更具韧性 中国财政部：前10月全国一般公共预算收入同比增长0.8%，支出增长2%，交易印花税收入增长88.1%。1-10月，全国 一般公共预算收入186490亿元，同比增长0.8%。中德高级别财金对话在京举行，达成多项成果共识，结束贸易紧张局 势。中德高级别财金对话中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与德方牵头人、德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔17日在北 京共同主持第四次中德高级别财金对话。美联储理事沃勒支持12月降息，副主席杰斐逊强调慎缓慢推进政策。下任美 联储主席的热门人选、现任美联储理事沃勒表示，支持在美联储12月会议上再次降息，原因是他对劳动力市场以及招 聘大幅放缓感到担忧。 重点品种：股指、玻璃纯碱、蛋白粕 股指：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指震荡回落，医药生物和银行板块领跌，计算机和国防军工板块领涨，市场 成交额1.93万亿元。资金方面，11月14日融资余额减少134.56亿元至24746.99亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预 计科技板块是长期方向。资金面来看，国内流动性环境有望延续宽松，居民有望加大权益类资产配置，同时，随着美 联储降息、人民币升值，外部资金也 ...