Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are affected by the warm commodity market but constrained by the weak reality. They are supported by costs but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of export expectations, and are expected to maintain a volatile trend [3] - The iron ore market has a neutral fundamental situation. High supply and rigid demand are in balance, and prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [22] - For coal and coke, the import pressure in January may ease. The price of coking coal may rebound if the resumption of domestic mines falls short of expectations. The supply - demand structure of coke may improve if the iron - making production of downstream steel mills increases rapidly [33] - Ferroalloy prices may be suppressed by corporate hedging when they rebound to a certain level, but the downside is limited due to cost support [48] - The over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the demand expectation is weakening. High inventory restricts the price [63] - For glass, the cold - repair of production lines before the Spring Festival may affect long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [86] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3100 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan from the previous day), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3221 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads also showed changes [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions had slight fluctuations. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different contracts and regions also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 200 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, up 13 yuan from the previous day [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The volume - screw difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio were relatively stable on December 31, 2025, compared to the previous day [15][19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts showed small changes. For example, the 01 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan from the previous day). The basis of different contracts also changed [23] - **Fundamental Data**: As of December 26, 2025, the daily average pig iron production was 226.58 tons (up 0.03 tons week - on - week), the 45 - port desilting volume was 315.06 tons (up 1.61 tons week - on - week), and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons (up 346.03 tons week - on - week) [27] Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On December 31, 2025, the month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. The coking profit on the disk decreased, and the ratios of ore - coke, screw - coke, and carbon - coal also changed [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions were relatively stable. The import profits of different types of coal and the export profit of coke showed some fluctuations [39] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On December 31, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 22 yuan/ton (up 78 yuan from the previous day), and the month - to - month spreads also changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable or had small increases [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 80 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads and spot prices in different regions also changed [50][52] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts decreased. The month - to - month spreads changed significantly. For example, the month - to - month spread (9 - 1) increased by 25 yuan, with a growth rate of 17.61% [64] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were relatively stable, with only slight changes in some regions [64] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts were basically unchanged. The month - to - month spreads and basis in different regions changed slightly [87] - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on December 26, 2025, was 105 [88]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-31 市场情绪趋弱，钢价震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：交易情绪提振，玻碱盘面反弹 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货震荡上行，盘中波动加剧，成交活跃。现货方面，下游以观望刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾依旧较大，虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度仍显 不足。库存压力不减，且不排除春节期间持续大幅累库。市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期，持续关注玻璃冷修进 展。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡上行，盘面成交活跃。现货方面，下游报价有所上调，期现成交惨淡，刚需采 购为主。 供需与逻辑：目前纯碱供需矛盾有所缓解，产量有所回落，库存持续下降。但考虑到纯碱后期仍有新增项目投产， 同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期，仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润，避免再度陷入供需失衡局面，持续关注浮法玻璃 产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：合金期货反弹，现货小幅调整 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日硅锰期货反弹飘红。现货端：硅锰市场表现强势，期货开盘继续上行 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-31 震荡运⾏为主，关注钢⼚复产与下游补 库节奏 国家发展改⾰委、财政部发布关于2026年实施⼤规模设备更新和消 费品以旧换新政策的通知，政策基调仍显积极。钢材淡季延续去库， 基本⾯⽭盾有限，盘⾯震荡运⾏。铁矿⾼库存或将⾯临堆存费征收的 压⼒，盘⾯上涨乏⼒。焦煤交割博弈加剧，盘⾯波动剧烈。玻璃供给 扰动带动玻纯盘⾯价格反弹，但供需过剩压制上⽅空间。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水基本持稳，港口库存持续累积，钢厂少量补 库，上下游博弈较强，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供需双弱，钢厂 库存偏高，补库放缓，废钢现货上涨乏力，华东主导钢企上周末提降 30元/吨，预计现货市场跟跌为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，且进入一月后钢厂有复 产预期，随着中下游冬储补库逐渐开启，焦炭供需结构或将逐渐变 紧，四轮提降落地后现货有望企稳，盘面预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随 着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，且进入一月后蒙煤进口冲量行为将 有所改善，总体供应压力将得到缓解，焦煤基本面将延续边际改善， 期现价格仍有上涨动力。 3. 合金方面：内蒙 ...

来源：华泰期货 作者： 黑色建材组 昨日玻璃期货价格大幅上涨。截止昨日收盘，玻璃主力合约FG2605收于1087元/吨，涨3.23%。玻璃上 涨主要有以下原因： 1、过去玻璃价格持续下跌，玻璃厂压力有所增大，近期部分产线放水冷修，供应将延续下降格局。 2、湖北环保厅约谈湖北玻璃企业，市场预期后期将会有所动作，市场情绪有所改善，后续仍需关注相 关影响。 3、玻璃持仓量较大，盘面博弈明显，短期宏观预期有所改善，且基本面短期仍有改善预期下，致使玻 璃盘面价格向上反弹。 宏观及基本面预期改善下，玻璃期货价格低位反弹，但玻璃产能较为充足，仍需关注后期玻璃供需能否 达到新平衡。同时，由于玻璃产量处于历史同期低位，价格反弹后需重点关注产量情况。整体而言，玻 璃中长期仍处于宽松态势，考虑反弹后择机入场套保。 风险提示：宏观政策、产业政策、房地产情况等。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 黑色建材组 昨日玻璃期货价格大幅上涨。截止昨日收盘，玻璃主力合约FG2605收于1087元/吨，涨3.23%。玻璃上 涨主要有以下原因 ...

陈张滢 黑色建材日报 2025-12-31 黑色建材组 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3134 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.127%）。当日注册仓单 58056 吨, 环比增加 2440 吨。主力合约持仓量为 156.0806 万手，环比增加 30014 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3282 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 5 元/吨（-0.15%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 128.3319 万手，环比增加 7022 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 31 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 基本面方面，本周纯碱产量为 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Author: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group - Date: December 30, 2025 - Focus: Colored Metals Sector Cross-Sectional Momentum Reversal [2] 2. Core View - The proportion of long and short positions in commodities has changed little this week. The factor intensity of the colored metals and precious metals sectors has slightly declined, while that of the agricultural products sector has slightly increased. Currently, the cross-sectionally stronger sectors are colored metals and black metals, and the weaker one is agricultural products [3]. - In terms of strategy net worth, different factors have different trends in different periods, and the comprehensive signals vary among different commodities [5][10][13][15]. 3. Key Points by Category 3.1 Commodity Sector Analysis - **Colored Metals**: The short - term momentum of the colored metals sector continues to rise, with a certain reversal in the term structure. Copper and alumina are weak in the cross - section. The time - series momentum of gold rises slightly, and the silver position shows a marginal decline [3]. - **Black Metals**: The time - series momentum of the black metals sector shows a marginal recovery, the cross - sectional differentiation narrows, and the positions of coking coal and coke remain high [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The short - cycle momentum factor of the energy and chemicals sector recovers, and soda ash is in the cross - sectionally short end [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The cross - sectional differentiation of oilseeds and meals narrows, the overall time - series momentum recovers, but the position does not change significantly [3]. 3.2 Factor Performance and Strategy Net Worth - **Factor Performance Table 1**: | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | 0.02 | 0.02 | | Demand | - 0.03 | - 0.31 | | Inventory | 0.05 | 0.51 | | Spread | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Aggregate of Major Categories | 0.04 | 0.05 | [4] - **Strategy Net Worth 1**: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.02%, the demand factor weakened by 0.03%, the inventory factor increased by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. In terms of fundamental factors, the supply side turns neutral, the demand side is long, the inventory side is long but with weakened intensity, and the spread side is neutral [5]. - **Factor Performance Table 2**: | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Pinduoduo | 0.00 | 0.79 | | Demand | 0.00 | 1.12 | | Inventory | 0.03 | - 0.49 | | Spread | - 0.03 | 0.25 | | Profit | - 0.40 | 1.62 | | Aggregate of Major Categories | - 0.26 | 0.79 | [8] - **Strategy Net Worth 2**: Last week, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.03%, the spread factor weakened by 0.03%, the profit factor decreased by 0.40%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.26%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. The supply side turns long, the demand side is long, the inventory side continues to be long, and the profit side continues to be short [15]. - **Factor Performance Table 3**: | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Singh | 0.00 | - 0.37 | | Inventory | 0.00 | 0.08 | | Spread | - 0.09 | - 0.09 | | Aggregate of Major Categories | - 0.04 | - 0.09 | [10] - **Strategy Net Worth 3**: Last week, the spread factor declined. The comprehensive factor weakened by 0.04%, and this week the comprehensive signal turns long [10]. - **Factor Performance Table 4 (Iron Ore)**: | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | - 0.22 | 0.55 | | Demand | - 1.54 | - 1.12 | | Inventory | 1.47 | 0.77 | | Spread | 1.76 | 1.02 | | Aggregate of Major Categories | 0.27 | 0.59 | [13] - **Strategy Net Worth 4 (Iron Ore)**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.22%, the demand factor weakened by 1.54%, the inventory factor increased by 1.47%, the spread factor strengthened by 1.02%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.27%. This week, the comprehensive signal turns from long to short. The supply side turns long but the signal remains neutral, the demand side's long feedback continues to weaken and the signal remains neutral, the inventory side turns long and the signal remains neutral, and the spread side's signal turns long [13]. - **Factor Performance Table 5 (Aluminum)**: | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | 0.09 | | | Aggregate of Major Categories | - 0.04 | - 0.09 | [13] - **Strategy Net Worth 5 (Aluminum)**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.09%, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.04%, and this week the comprehensive signal turns long. The supply side turns long, the demand side's long feedback continues to weaken, the inventory side turns long, and the spread side's signal turns long [13] 3.3 Sector Momentum and Other Indicators | Sector | Momentum Time - Series | Momentum Cross - Section | Term Structure | Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black Metals | 0.21 | - 0.29 | - 0.85 | 1.25 | | Colored Metals | 0.06 | 0.93 | - 2.2 | - 0.64 | | Energy and Chemicals | 0.37 | 0.57 | - 0.02 | 0.16 | | Agricultural Products | - 0.45 | 0.69 | 0.93 | 1.37 | | Stock Index | 0.31 | - 0.1 | - 0.32 | 0.48 | | Other | 0 | | | 0.05 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is expected to maintain high investment attractiveness in 2025 due to structural highlights, despite ongoing pressure from traditional domestic real estate and infrastructure sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Cement - Cement demand is under pressure, with a structural adjustment expected; by 2025, the demand distribution is projected to be 30% from real estate, 50% from infrastructure, and 20% from rural areas [3]. - The industry is anticipated to experience a gradual improvement in supply-demand balance as excess capacity is addressed and supply-side constraints are implemented [3]. Group 2: Glass Fiber - The glass fiber sector is poised for significant profit release in 2026, driven by demand from AI electronic cloth; the focus will be on high-end fabric price elasticity [4]. - The glass fiber industry has established a global pricing structure, with both domestic and international demand being crucial for growth [4]. Group 3: Glass - The glass sector is facing demand pressure and a slowdown in cold repair processes, with a net reduction of approximately 4000 tons per day expected by the end of 2025 [5]. - The industry is experiencing weak profitability, with over 60% of natural gas production lines expected to incur losses; however, there may be opportunities for supply-demand mismatches in 2026 [5]. Group 4: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector has shown signs of stabilization since Q3 2025, with narrowing revenue declines and reduced price competition, indicating that the most challenging phase has passed [6]. - Despite ongoing pressures in new housing demand, the increase in second-hand housing and renovation projects is expected to provide strong support, creating structural opportunities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials and new materials industry is expected to maintain high investment attractiveness in 2025, despite continued pressure from traditional domestic demand in real estate and infrastructure [2]. Group 1: Cement Industry - Cement demand is projected to be under pressure, with structural adjustments expected. The anticipated demand distribution for 2025 is 30% from real estate, 50% from infrastructure, and 20% from rural areas [2][3]. - The industry is expected to experience a low point around April-May 2024, with a gradual improvement in supply-demand relationships as supply exits in an orderly manner [2][3]. Group 2: Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber sector is expected to benefit from the release of profits in AI electronic cloth by 2026, with a focus on high-end fabric price elasticity [3]. - The industry has undergone domestic substitution, establishing China as a global supplier, making both domestic and international demand crucial [3]. Group 3: Glass Industry - The glass sector is facing demand pressure and a slowdown in cold repairs, with a net reduction of approximately 4,000 tons per day as of December 21, 2025, which is a deceleration compared to 2024 [4]. - The overall glass prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand, with a projected decline in construction completions by 18% year-on-year from January to November 2025 [4]. Group 4: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector has shown signs of stabilization since Q3 2025, with narrowing revenue declines and reduced price competition, indicating that the most challenging phase has passed [5]. - Despite ongoing pressures in new housing demand, the release of second-hand housing and renovation projects is expected to provide strong support, leading to structural opportunities [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1] - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper suggests holding long positions cautiously and holding a light position during holidays; aluminum advises more observation; nickel suggests observation or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to move in a range [1] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; polyolefins are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend; apples and jujubes are expected to move sideways [1] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Live pigs suggest a short - selling strategy on rallies for near - term contracts and a cautious bullish view for far - term contracts; eggs suggest that breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the 02 contract; corn suggests caution on chasing highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; soybean meal suggests a bullish view on dips for near - term 03 contracts and a bearish view for far - term 05 contracts; oils suggest gradually closing long positions and caution on chasing highs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product, including policy changes, production and inventory levels, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding trading strategies [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: They are expected to move sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term. The Chinese government's fiscal policy is positive, but industrial profit decline and market rotation may cause short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to trading volume changes [5] - **Treasury bonds**: They are expected to move sideways. The previous driving factors of the market are fading, and there is a lack of significant positive factors to drive a new trend. Attention should be paid to the strength changes between assets [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: It is expected to move sideways. The market is in a game between strong negative factors (high inventory of imported Mongolian coal, weak demand) and weak positive factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to move sideways. Futures prices are in a narrow range. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [7] - **Glass**: It is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is expected to decrease due to production line closures, and there is short - term speculation opportunity around the New Year's Day. However, in the long term, the supply - demand situation is not conducive to a continuous price increase [9] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: It has reached a new high. It is expected to be high - level sideways before the New Year's Day holiday. It is bullish in the long term but there is a risk of short - term correction. Cautious long - holding and light - position holiday - holding are recommended [10] - **Aluminum**: It is in a rebound. The fundamentals are still weak, and it is expected to be high - level sideways. More observation is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to move sideways. It is expected to be in a surplus situation in the long term. Observation or shorting on rallies is recommended [14] - **Tin**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to overseas supply disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14] - **Silver**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Holding long positions is recommended, and caution is needed for new positions [16] - **Gold**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Range trading is recommended, and caution is needed for chasing highs [16] - **Lithium carbonate**: It is expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are in a state of balance. Attention should be paid to the impact of Yichun's mining permit issues on supply [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is supported by low valuation and potential policy and cost factors [17] - **Caustic soda**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The fundamentals are weak, and short - term observation is recommended [19] - **Styrene**: It is expected to move sideways. The short - term is in a range - bound state, and the medium - to long - term depends on the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to move sideways. The raw material price increase is limited, and the inventory is accumulating. There is a risk of price correction [21] - **Urea**: It is expected to move sideways. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is in a wide - range fluctuation [22] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is increasing, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [24] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the upward pressure is large [25] - **Soda ash**: Temporary observation is recommended. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space of the price is limited [26] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: They are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Global cotton production and consumption are adjusted, and the price is supported by stable consumption and policy expectations [28] - **Apples**: They are expected to move sideways. The market price of late - harvested Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the trading of farmers' goods is still in a stalemate [28] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to move sideways. The acquisition of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the remaining supply is limited [28] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Live pigs**: The near - term contracts are expected to be bearish on rallies, and the far - term contracts are cautiously bullish. The supply is increasing in the short term, and the price rebound is limited. In the long term, the price depends on the degree of production capacity reduction [30] - **Eggs**: The 02 contract is suitable for breeding enterprises to hedge on rallies. The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply pressure still exists [34] - **Corn**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. The short - term price increase is limited, and the long - term demand is gradually recovering, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [36] - **Soybean meal**: It is expected to move sideways. The near - term 03 contract is bullish on dips, and the far - term 05 contract is bearish [36] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound is limited, and caution is needed for chasing highs. The long - term trend depends on factors such as palm oil production reduction, biodiesel policies, and soybean supply [44]