库存方面，据申银万国期货介绍，上周玻璃生产企业库存5329万重箱，环比下降142万重箱。 后市来看，建信期货表示，玻璃上涨情绪有所退潮，"反内卷"更多的是政策托底作用，盘面价格能否继 续上行仍需关注后期基本面数据情况，短期内或宽幅震荡运行。 9月29日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，玻璃期货主力合约报收于1228.00元/吨，大幅下跌 2.31%。 宏观面，瑞达期货（002961）指出，工业和信息化部、自然资源部、生态环境部、住房城乡建设部水利 部、农业农村部关于印发《建材行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》的通知。 基本面上，华联期货分析称，上周玻璃产线无明显变化，前期点火产线开始出玻璃，周供应量环比增 加，下游受消息刺激释放补库需求，厂家库存加速去库。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday; bullish on aluminum, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on nickel, recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][18][19] - **Energy and chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefin, recommended for range trading; recommended for shorting 01 contract and longing 05 contract in soda ash [1][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for narrow - range trading; bullish on apples, recommended for range - bound and upward trading; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range - bound and downward trading [1][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and livestock**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for weak - range trading; bullish on oils, recommended for bottom - building and slight rebound trading [1][37][39][40][42][43] Core Views - Affected by the weakening of the external market and the pre - holiday effect, the A - share market is cautious, with significant structural differentiation. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term and are bullish in the long term. Treasury bonds are recommended to be observed due to potential long - term downward pressure [5] - The black building materials market is mixed. The coal market is active, while rebar is affected by weak industry and strong macro factors. Glass is expected to be supported by demand in October and is recommended to be bought on dips [7][8] - Non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disruptions and macro policies. Copper is expected to be high - range volatile, aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [10][11][17][18][19] - In the energy and chemical sector, most products are expected to oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost fluctuations, and policy uncertainties. Soda ash is recommended for a specific arbitrage strategy [20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - The cotton textile industry chain shows different trends. Cotton and cotton yarn are affected by supply - demand changes, PTA is affected by cost and supply - demand games, apples are expected to be strong, and jujubes are expected to be weak [33][34][35] - In the agriculture and livestock sector, pigs and eggs are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. Corn is expected to oscillate, soybean meal is expected to be weak, and oils are expected to rebound slightly [37][39][40][42][43] Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the short term, the A - share market is affected by external and pre - holiday factors, with active large - tech sectors and weak small - cap stocks. In the long term, it is bullish, and buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Friday, the long - term downward pressure remains. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the end - of - month data [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is active due to factors such as production reduction and price increases. It is recommended for range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price dropped last Friday. It is currently undervalued, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be supported by demand in October. Buying on dips is recommended [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the mine accident in Grasberg, the copper price is expected to be high - range volatile. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure, while the electrolytic aluminum demand is in the peak season. Buying on dips is recommended [12][13] - **Nickel**: The nickel supply is in an oversupply situation in the long term. Shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The tin supply is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. Range trading is recommended [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US economic data and Fed policy expectations, range trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 4850 - 5050 range [20][21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 2450 - 2650 range [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weak - range volatile, and the 6700 - 7100 range is recommended [25] - **Rubber**: The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday replenishment is completed. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 15500 level is recommended as the support [25] - **Urea**: The supply increases, and the demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 contract's 1600 - 1630 support [26][27] - **Methanol**: The supply recovers, and the demand increases. It is expected to be strong - range volatile, and the 2330 - 2450 range is recommended [27] - **Polyolefin**: The demand recovers, and the supply increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the range, and the LL and PP contracts are recommended to focus on the 7200 - 7500 and 6900 - 7200 ranges respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract due to the expected supply increase [31][32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and the future price may face pressure. Range trading is recommended [33] - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to be narrow - range volatile [33][34] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to be strong - range volatile [34] - **Jujubes**: The market is light, and it is expected to rebound in a range [35] Agriculture and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 05 - 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and shorting on rallies is recommended. The 12 and 01 contracts are recommended to be observed [39] - **Corn**: The new crop supply eases the tight supply situation. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak - range volatile. Holding long positions on dips is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The palm oil and soybean oil fundamentals have some support, and the rapeseed oil supply has a gap. It is expected to rebound slightly, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunities [43][44][45][46][47][48]

黑色建材日报 2025-09-29 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3114 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 53 元/吨（-1.67%）。当日注册仓单 272650 吨, 环比增加 1228 吨。主力合约持仓量为 197.6545 万手，环比增加 106096 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢 天津汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比减少 30 元/吨。 热轧 板卷主力合约收盘价为 3313 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 45 元/吨（-1.34%）。 当日注册仓单 28314 吨, 环 比减少 890 吨。主力合约持仓量为 139.1208 万手， ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook is optimistic for cyclical sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals, driven by multiple factors including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, monetary policy shifts, and improved domestic macroeconomic expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, with leading companies' stock prices doubling, but there is a mismatch between current valuations and fundamentals [2][3]. - The core logic for non-ferrous metals includes their role as globally priced commodities, entering a long-term supply-tight price upcycle due to sustained demand and supply constraints [3]. - Factors such as ongoing global manufacturing investment cycles, strategic metal resource demand, and monetary expansion are expected to drive further demand for non-ferrous metals [3]. Group 2: Strategic Asset Allocation - The investment strategy emphasizes a strategic allocation to cyclical assets, focusing on sectors with strong demand-side logic [4]. - The first tier of allocation includes industrial metals, minor metals, and precious metals, with copper and aluminum highlighted for their robust long-term demand and profitability [5]. - The second tier focuses on traditional midstream cyclical leaders like chemicals, steel, coal, and financial sectors, which have low valuations and maintain decent return on equity [6]. - The third tier includes post-cyclical sectors such as general machinery and real estate, which may require time to realize their potential as the macroeconomic cycle progresses [6].

专家分享：纯碱行业现状与展望 20250927 摘要 2025 年前三季度纯碱总产量同比增长 1.8%至 2,819 万吨，但产能利 用率下降 100 个基点，接近 25%。重碱产量同比减少 10.6%，轻碱产 量同比增长 6%，反映出结构性变化。 房地产市场下滑显著影响平板玻璃需求，2025 年光伏玻璃产量下降 18%，但轻碱需求增长 10%。纯碱出口大幅增长，1-7 月同比增长超过 100%，进口几乎停滞，预计全年进出口总量约 200 万吨。 根据卓创数据，氨碱法和联碱法纯碱生产均面临亏损，但天然碱仍有利 润空间。光伏产业发展预计每年带来 70 多万吨新增纯碱需求，政策层 面或将避免原材料价格上涨。 2025 年玻璃累计产量同比减少 8%，但 9 月起单月产量高于去年同期， 导致库存积压。前九个月玻璃需求下降 6.6%，天然气制玻璃企业亏损， 煤质制玻璃微利。 预计到 2026 年底，纯碱新增产能将达到 630 万吨，总产能超过 4,700 万吨，供应压力巨大。前五家企业市场集中度较高，市场竞争将加剧。 当前纯碱行业的供应和需求情况如何？ 从供应方面来看，目前纯碱市场面临较大的供应压力。尽管今年前三季度重 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Views - The implementation of stable growth policies in the building materials sector is expected to strengthen anti-involution efforts, leading to potential growth opportunities [1][4] - The report highlights a rebound in industrial profits and improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI), driven by anti-involution measures [4] - The report recommends several companies, including Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and Qibin Group, as well as consumer building materials firms like Oppein Home and Arrow Bathroom, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The building materials sector experienced a decline of 2.11% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices, which gained 1.07% and 0.25% respectively [4] - The average price of high-standard cement nationwide is reported at 351.0 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 5.3 CNY/ton but a year-on-year decrease of 35.0 CNY/ton [4][18] - The average cement inventory ratio is 65.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last week [25] 2. Cement Market - The report notes a slight decrease in cement demand due to weather conditions, with an average shipment rate of 46.5%, down 1.9 percentage points from last week [25] - The report anticipates that cement companies will continue to push for price increases as the fourth quarter approaches, with expectations for a rebound in prices [4][11] - Recommendations include leading companies such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from industry consolidation and improved profitability [11] 3. Glass Market - The average price of float glass is reported at 1224.7 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 16.8 CNY/ton and a year-on-year increase of 47.6% [4] - The report suggests that the glass industry is currently facing a supply-demand stalemate, but mid-term supply-side adjustments are expected to improve pricing dynamics [13] - Flagship companies like Qibin Group are recommended due to their competitive advantages in resource access and potential profit growth from diversified business lines [13] 4. Fiberglass Market - The report indicates that the profitability of fiberglass is expected to improve in the medium term, with a focus on high-end products [12] - The report highlights that the industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in supply pressure, which is likely to stabilize prices [12][13] - Companies such as China Jushi are recommended for their strong market position and growth potential in emerging applications [12][13] 5. Consumer Building Materials - The report emphasizes the positive impact of government policies on consumer demand for building materials, with expectations for continued growth in the sector [14] - Companies like Oppein Home and Arrow Bathroom are highlighted for their strong market positions and potential for recovery in consumer spending [14] - The report suggests that the competitive landscape is improving, with many companies showing signs of profit recovery and growth strategies [14]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperforming the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector (CITIC) declined by 1.73% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.07%, resulting in a 2.8 percentage point lag [2][10] - On September 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly released the "Construction Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", addressing weak market demand and structural issues in the industry. The plan emphasizes strict capacity control for cement and glass, promotes technological innovation, and encourages digital transformation and green low-carbon upgrades [2][17] - The new plan focuses more on resolving structural issues rather than emphasizing growth targets, with clear measures for capacity control in overcapacity sectors like cement and glass. It also highlights the need for continuous improvement in transformation and upgrading, particularly in high-end materials [2][17] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.07% while the construction materials sector (CITIC) fell by 1.73%, with glass fiber and glass sub-sectors experiencing smaller declines. Notable stock performances included Xidamen (+9.8%), Shangfeng Cement (+8.1%), and China Jushi (+7.5%) [1][10] Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Cement: Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, Shangfeng Cement 2. Glass: Qibin Group, Fuyao Glass, Yamaton 3. Consumer Building Materials: Dongfang Yuhong, Sankeshu, Beixin Building Materials 4. Glass Fiber: China Jushi, Shandong Fiberglass, Changhai Co. [2][19] Focused Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on high-demand sectors such as high-end electronic fabrics and overseas markets, recommending companies like China National Materials, Honghe Technology, and West Cement [2][19]

①水泥：本周全国高标均价 351 元/t，同比-35 元/t，环比+5 元/t，全国平均出货率 46.5%，环比-1.9pct，库容比为 65.7%，环比+0.9pct，同比+0.3pct。②玻璃：本周浮法均价 1224.74 元/吨，环比上涨 16.79 元/吨，涨幅 1.39%，截 至 9 月 18 日重点监测省份生产企业库存天数约 26.18 天，较上周四减少 0.69 天。截至本周四，2.0mm 镀膜面板主流 订单价格 13 元/平方米左右，环比持平。③混凝土搅拌站：本周混凝土搅拌站产能利用率为 7.67%，环比+0.17pct。 ④玻纤：本周国内 2400tex 无碱缠绕直接纱均价 3524.75 元/吨，环比持平，电子布市场主流报价 4.1-4.2 元/米不 等，环比持平。⑤电解铝：美强劲数据打压美联储降息预期 铝价短期内震荡回升为主。⑥钢铁：钢材产量有所下降， 主要集中在螺纹钢产量下降较为明显。⑦其他：原油价格环比上涨，煤炭、有机硅、PE 价格环比下跌。 【重要变动】 ①9 月 25 日，中国巨石发布回购预案，拟以不超过 22 元/股回购不低于不低于 3,000 万股（含），不超过 4,000 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：短期震荡市 | 供应 | 周内浮法无放水、点火、引板产线，周产量平稳运行。截至20250925，国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计296条(20万吨/日），其中在 | | --- | --- | | | 产225条，冷修停产71条。全国浮法玻璃日产量为16.02万吨，与18日持平。周内浮法产线运行稳定，无点火，放水浮法产线。 | | 需求 | 截至20250915，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值10.5天，环比+1.0%，同比+2.9%。9月至今，全国各大区多数深加工订单仍未有明显好转， | | | 多数承接仍以散单为主，多数排单天数7天左右，整体利润依旧偏低；少数中大型企业承接的工程类项目部分依旧可以排单20-60天不等。 | | | 截止到20250925，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存5935.5万重箱，环比-155.3万重箱，环比-2 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 09 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 稳增长方案发布，重点关注行业供给优化 [Table_Title2] 建筑材料 [Table_Summary] ►本周受益标的：（1）工信部等 6 部门联合发布《方案》，反 内卷下水泥行业自律加速，推荐华新水泥、海螺水泥等，上峰 水泥等受益；行业"反内卷"同步推进，光伏玻璃行业底部提 价，推荐旗滨集团，福莱特、信义光能等受益；防水顺应倡议 产品提价，推荐东方雨虹、科顺股份等；（2）龙头受益消防新 国标，消防机器人商业化助新成长，推荐消防报警龙头青鸟消 防；（3）受益于特种电子布超高景气，推荐中国巨石、中材科 技、国际复材等受益。（4）推荐经营韧性超预期，个股α强的 三棵树，推荐估值低位且具备高分红的伟星新材、兔宝宝等。 ►反内卷效果显现，水泥、玻璃价格趋势好转。（1）水泥： 本周全国水泥市场价格环比大幅攀升，涨幅为 1.5%。九月 底，受降雨和台风天气影响，水泥市场需求出现阶段性减 弱，全国重点地区水泥企业平均出货率环比下降约 2pct。 （2）浮法玻璃：本周国内浮法玻璃均价 1224.74 元/ ...