宏观深度报告 20250419 贸易摩擦如何影响我国就业？政策如何应 对？ [Table_Summary] ◼ 贸易摩擦或对我国就业市场造成扰动 ◼ 出口就业人数的两种定量测算 ◼ 对等关税对就业影响的估算 2025 年 04 月 19 日 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《中国科技产业为全球资产注入稳定 性》 2025-04-14 《美债抛售潮的原因：去美元化、流 动性冲击与中期财政扩张》 2025-04-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数。关税冲击主要是制造业出口，制造业 有更多的资本和技术投入作为劳动要素的代替，因此每百万元增加值吸 纳的就业只有 4.7 人。相比之下，建筑业和部分服务业吸纳就业的能力 更强。每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数较多的行 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 工业部门开工率同比涨跌互现，其中钢铁、焦化等内需链仍偏强，纺服产业链相关的江浙织机开工率 有一定放缓迹象，有待后续继续观察确认。截至4月第三周，全国247家高炉开工率（期末值，下同）同比增 长3.0pct；焦化企业开工率同比增长6.8pct。苯乙烯开工率同比增长0.6pct；PTA江浙织机负荷率同比回落 8.1pct，环比回落5.0pct；涤纶长丝江浙织机开工率同比回落16.4pct，环比回落7.7pct；山东地炼开工率 同比回落6.3pct；PVC开工率同比增长0.5pct。汽车半钢胎开工率同比回落2.6pct，全钢胎开工率同比增长 1.9pct。 第二， 中电联口径，截至4月10日纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比下降6.4%。这一数据和 3月大致相当，今年3月1-27日同一口径燃煤发电量同比回落6.7%。近年来新能源发电占比迅速提升，火电 对经济的代表性下降，如一季度统计局口径火电、风电、太阳能发电同比增长分别为-4.7%、9.3%、 19.5%，所以燃煤发电数据只有同口径对比的意义。 ...

一、 指数表现 三大股指集体收跌 ， 上证指数下跌 0. 24 %，深证成指跌 1.4 %，创业板指跌1.8 6 % 。 早盘市场情绪低迷，三大指数低开后一度反弹，午后 维持震荡 。全市场超 3 0 00只个股下 跌， 2000 只上涨。成交额 小幅 放量 ， 全天成交 1.13万亿，较昨日增加1631亿元。 二、板块及热点分析 2）机遇：由于特朗普对全球加高额关税，可能将欧盟、东盟推向我们，加大合作。 领涨板块 ： 大消费板块逆势走强 ， 美国将对所有贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，并对多个贸易 伙伴征收更高税率，据彭博报道，对华累计关税预计升至54%，且对我国企业重要的出海区 域，如东南亚，关税力度同样很大，但对加墨未进一步提升关税力度。关税超预期环境下，提 振内需对国内经济愈发重要，基建和国家重点产业战略（如煤化工等）投资建设有望获得政策 加码支持，而出海和制造业投资短期则面临一定的预期压制。 旅游、零售、白酒、养殖等细分 领域领涨，国芳集团、梦百合等多股涨停。贵州茅台年报业绩稳健（ 2024 年 营 收 增 长 15.66%），提振消费板块信心。 电力与地产股异动： 电力板块受电价改革政策推动 ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of social financing in February 2025, driven by proactive fiscal policies, with expectations for continued support [2]. - The consumer sector is anticipated to sustain its momentum due to government policies aimed at boosting consumption, alongside potential foreign investment inflows [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of using broader social financing metrics over traditional loan data to assess the financial system's support for the real economy [5]. - The REITs market showed a mixed performance, with property REITs outperforming other categories, indicating a potential area for investment [4]. - The report suggests that the copper market is tightening due to low inventory levels and stable demand from the power grid, presenting investment opportunities in related companies [18]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector - The report discusses the "three relationships" in credit activity, noting a divergence between credit growth and social financing increase, and contrasting public loan growth with weak retail lending [11]. Consumer Sector - The government’s focus on consumption is expected to catalyze policy support, with thematic investment opportunities emerging, particularly in sectors like service consumption and family planning [3]. Bond Market - The report advises focusing on social financing metrics for a comprehensive view of the financial system's support for the economy, especially during periods of local government debt issuance [5]. REITs - The REITs market experienced fluctuations, with property REITs showing greater resilience and attracting net inflows, suggesting a favorable investment environment [4]. Copper Industry - Domestic copper concentrate inventory has reached a new low, indicating a tightening supply situation, which could lead to upward pressure on copper prices [18]. Coal Industry - The coal sector is expected to stabilize with long-term contract prices providing support, suggesting a defensive investment approach in this area [19]. Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage index has risen significantly, driven by positive consumption policies and low valuation, indicating potential for continued market enthusiasm [20]. Electric Power Equipment and New Energy - The report highlights the low valuation in the wind power sector and the potential for growth in lithium battery technologies, suggesting a positive investment outlook [21]. Other Sectors - The report provides insights into various sectors, including pharmaceuticals, textiles, and insurance, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their growth potential and market conditions [22][23][30].