Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a general rise, with expectations that it will benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital due to low stock market volatility [4][19]. - The A-share market is showing signs of rotation, with a total trading volume of 1.15 trillion, indicating a focus on consumer sectors and a majority of stocks rising [22]. - The U.S. stock market is in a phase of slight upward movement, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices increasing by 0.51%, 0.58%, and 0.81% respectively [29]. Group 2: Asset Class Tracking - The bond market is expected to regain upward momentum as risk aversion increases, particularly if stock market volatility rises [4][19]. - The A-share market is characterized by low volatility and a cautious approach is recommended, especially if indices approach the 3000-point mark [22]. - The foreign exchange market shows the onshore RMB appreciating against the USD, with expectations of reaching around 7.1 [33]. Group 3: Sector Insights - Consumer sectors such as beauty care, beverage manufacturing, and textiles are leading the market, but overall trading volume remains insufficient for sustained growth [22]. - The commodity market is experiencing a rebound, with the Wenhua Commodity Index rising by 0.72%, although it is still in a bearish trend overall [36]. - The agricultural and high-dividend sectors are highlighted as having stronger certainty for future performance [22].

Export Data and Tariff Impact - In April, China's export growth showed a marginal slowdown, with a significant decline in exports to the US, indicating the actual impact of tariff increases is becoming evident [1][10] - The export growth structure can be categorized into three scenarios: overall export slowdown with simultaneous declines in both US and non-US exports, export decline to the US but an increase in non-US exports, and a decline in US exports with overall export growth improving due to non-US exports [2][12] - Industries facing significant revenue impact due to export declines include home appliances, non-ferrous metals, light industry, machinery, and textiles [2][14] Monthly Market Review - In May, risk assets generally experienced a recovery, with A-shares showing a preference for value styles, while sectors like environmental protection, pharmaceuticals, and military industries led the gains [3][21] - The market saw a mixed performance with fluctuations in risk appetite, influenced by tariff negotiations and concerns over US debt risks [3][21] June Market Outlook and Allocation Recommendations - The market is expected to continue its oscillation with a downward shift in the central tendency, influenced by tariff expectations and policy anticipation [4][5] - The recommendation is to increase allocation in low-volatility dividend stocks, focusing on sectors like electricity, banking, and consumer goods, while also considering trading opportunities in emerging technologies such as AI and robotics [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed performance of various sectors in May, indicating a gradual recovery in certain areas while others continue to face challenges, particularly in real estate and industrial production. Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - The cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 1.9% year-on-year as of May 22, marking the first positive reading of the year [1][7] - Industrial sector operating rates showed mixed results, with steel and coking industries underperforming compared to April, while the textile and apparel sectors improved significantly [8][9] - As of the fourth week of May, the operating rate of high furnaces increased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, while coking enterprises saw a 1.6 percentage point increase [8][9] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - The construction funding availability rate remained stable compared to the end of April, with a slight increase of 0.07 percentage points to 58.9% as of May 27 [10][11] - The cement shipment rate recorded 40.5%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point decline year-on-year [10][11] - The oil asphalt operating rate decreased to 27.7% by May 28, down from 34.4% and 30.8% in the previous weeks [10][11] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales - The average daily subway ridership in ten major cities increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 61.51 million, although it showed a decline from the previous month [12] - Real estate sales in May showed a reduced decline compared to April, with a 4.1% year-on-year drop in the average daily transaction area across 30 major cities [14][15] - Retail sales of passenger cars maintained a relatively strong state, with a year-on-year increase of 16% from May 1 to 25 [15] Group 4: Appliance Sales and Export Activity - Retail sales of major home appliances remained high, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showing significant year-on-year growth rates of 66.1%, 75.2%, and 85.2% respectively during the week of May 19-25 [16][17] - Container throughput showed a slight slowdown, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% from May 5 to 25, down from 7.3% in April [18] - The number of container ships sent to the U.S. saw a year-on-year decline of 17.2% as of May 31, indicating a potential shift in export dynamics [18][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese stock market is expected to rise further due to reduced opportunity costs for investors and stable policy continuity [1][2] - The A/H shares are favored, particularly in the financial, technology, and certain cyclical sectors [2] - The adjustment in the stock market during March-April is seen as a significant turning point, indicating reduced investor concerns about US-China competition and a more favorable environment for investment [2] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on inflation in the US is not yet fully realized, with April inflation data showing no immediate pressure from tariffs [7] - The reduction of tariffs is expected to delay any rebound in US inflation, although the risk of "stagflation" remains a concern [7] Group 3 - The bond market is experiencing limited short-term adjustment space due to a supportive liquidity environment, with a focus on mid to long-term economic narratives [9][10] - The recent easing of tariffs is expected to create structural opportunities in convertible bonds, particularly for technology and domestic demand sectors [13][14] Group 4 - The easing of tariffs is beneficial for the electronics sector, with expectations of a significant innovation year for the supply chain, particularly for Apple products [17][18] - The communication sector is also expected to benefit from reduced tariffs and strong overseas AI demand, maintaining a positive outlook for companies with significant overseas operations [21][22] Group 5 - The machinery sector is poised for growth due to reduced tariffs, benefiting both consumer-grade equipment exporters and engineering machinery through global supply chain restructuring [24][25] - The textile and apparel sector is expected to see improved market confidence and valuation recovery due to the reduction of tariffs, although long-term impacts will depend on overseas market fluctuations [28][30]

报 告 正 文 关税下调大超预期，当下加征多少？ 根据联合声明的内容，美国对我国征收的125%对等关税，幅度降至初始的34%。其中10%的基础关税与其 他国家一样征收，剩下24%的关税在90天内暂停实施，等待后续谈判。由于此前美方已经豁免了超2成中国商品的对等关税，则实际关税下降幅 度会更少一些。 当下我国对美总出口关税水平约41%，包括截至去年底的11%实际关税，今年2-3月因芬太尼问题加征的20%，以及最新对等关税的10%。如果 考虑美国额外豁免的部分商品，则整体关税水平降至38%。 直接出口代替转口，抢出口或仍持续。 由于我国与他国，对美出口关税差额将大幅缩小，则转口贸易规模或出现逆转，贸易流将转换为直接对 美出口。同时考虑到特朗普贸易政策多变，其暂停的24%关税后续仍可能继续征收，那么抢出口行为仍将持续，并支撑我国出口。 年内看好出口，国内有何影响？ 年内我们看好出口，一方面，对等关税加征幅度回落，利好直接对美出口；另一方面，俄乌冲突缓和，欧洲经 济重铸也将进一步拉动我国出口，我们在《欧洲振兴，如何带动我国出口？——掘金欧洲系列之二》已外发报告中测算，欧洲振兴或至少拉动 我国出口1个百分点。不过，外部 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略深度报告 策略深度报告 20250508 5 月港股金股：关税阴霾渐退 2025 年 05 月 08 日 [观点Table_Tag] 3、港股反弹还需增量资金和政策刺激。当前增量资金主要以南向为主，香 港本地资金和海外资金还有增配空间。此外，尽管 5 月 2 日，美元兑港币 汇率触及 7.75 强方兑换保证，仍需继续观察外资流入情况。 ◼ 我们相对看好 AI 科技、内需，同时建议配置部分高股息用作防御： 1、看好 AI 科技：一是，美股科技业绩部分亮眼，一定程度上对全球科技 叙事有所提振；二是，业绩进入真空期，业绩干扰减少，利好主题行情， AI 科技东升仍是重点；三是，港交所和香港证监会推出"科企专线"，进 一步利好科创风偏。 2、考虑配置部分高股息：一是，整体海外风险还在，如果美股科技大跌可 能传导至港股科技；二是，二季度部分港股可能提前派息潮。为避免下半 年可能的在岸人民币压力，部分企业可能提前支付股息。三是，近期港币 流动性有宽松信号，若资金成本继续下降，进一步利好高股息。 3、内需消费仍是全年主线。4 月底政治局会议，明确表示要扩大消费，大 力发展服务消费，增强消费对经济拉 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the potential impact of tariffs on various industries in China and the U.S., emphasizing the importance of the tariff burden distribution between Chinese and American companies on profitability. It evaluates industry competitiveness and bilateral trade dependence to assess how tariffs may be shared across different sectors [1][20]. Industry Competitiveness - China's telecommunications equipment, consumer electronics, and textile products exhibit strong competitiveness, with a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) greater than 2 as of 2023. In contrast, primary products and chemicals show lower RCAs below 0.8 [2][3]. - The international market share for China's telecommunications equipment, consumer electronics, and textile products is also high, exceeding 30%, while primary and pharmaceutical products have market shares below 10% [3]. - The comprehensive competitiveness index for textiles, telecommunications equipment, electronic data processing, and apparel ranks high at 14, 14, 13, and 13 respectively, while chemicals, agriculture, food, pharmaceuticals, and mineral fuels rank lower at 4-6 [11][13]. Trade Dependence - The U.S. has a high import dependence on miscellaneous products, machinery, and intermediate raw materials from China, with import dependence rates of 26.1%, 16.0%, and 16.0% respectively for 2024, which are significantly higher than the overall dependence [14]. - China's export exposure to the U.S. in sectors like automobiles, chemicals, and non-ferrous metal products is relatively low, providing stronger bargaining power in tariff negotiations. Conversely, labor-intensive sectors have higher exposure, affecting their negotiation leverage [14][20]. Tariff Impact - Due to strong competitiveness and high U.S. import dependence, China's telecommunications equipment and consumer electronics are expected to bear less of the tariff burden, while pharmaceuticals may face a heavier burden due to weaker competitiveness and higher export exposure [20]. - Current tariff rates for industries such as leather, transportation equipment, and food are among the highest, indicating potential impacts on these sectors [20]. Political Factors - Political considerations, particularly related to national security and labor rights, are likely to influence U.S. imports from China, with expectations of reduced imports of telecommunications equipment, smart and connected vehicles, and textiles [27].

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 4月工业部门开工率同比涨跌互现，其中钢铁、焦化等内需链仍偏强，外需相关度较高的纺服产业链 率开工率呈回落迹象。截至4月第四周，全国247家高炉开工率（期末值，下同）同比增长3.7pct；焦化企业 开工率同比增长8.8pct。苯乙烯开工率同比增长1.7pct；PVC开工率同比增长1.8pct。汽车半钢胎开工率同 比回落2.9pct，全钢胎开工率同比回落1.0pct。PTA江浙织机负荷率同比回落9.0pct，环比回落5.8pct；涤 纶长丝江浙织机开工率同比回落17.3pct，环比回落8.5pct。纺服产业链开工率回落的情况和PMI数据也较为 匹配，在报告《哪些行业景气度逆势上行：4月PMI简析》中，我们指出：从出口订单来看，纺服、化工、中 游装备制造降幅最大。 第二， 4月建筑资金到位率延续改善，传统基建相关实物工作量仍偏弱，电力侧实物开工相对偏强。据百年 建筑调研，截至4月29日，全国工地资金到位率58.8%，相较3月末环比回升0.9pct，非房建、房建项目资金 到位率环比分别增长0.8、1.7pct。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研究报告称，截至4月30日上午，A股上市公司2024年年报和2025年 一季报业绩基本披露完毕(披露率99.8%)。受政策效果持续显现以及科技创新趋势驱动，整体A股盈利增 速转正。大类行业中信息技术、消费服务增速相对领先，TMT、资源品和中游制造业边际改善。推荐 关注业绩增速相对较高、自由现金流边际改善的领域。 招商证券主要观点如下： 利润端：一季度上市公司业绩边际改善。根据一致可比口径和整体法测算，A股2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1 单季度净利润增速依次为3.7%/-15.7%/3.2%，非金融石油石化2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度净利润增速 为-10.5%/-50.2%/4.5%。 收入端：全部A股单季度收入增速较24Q4放缓，但仍高于24Q3，延续改善。全部A股 2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度收入增速依次为-2.0%/1.4%/-0.3%，非金融石油石化板块 2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度收入增速依次为-2.9%/1.2%/0.5%。海外营收增幅扩大，海外营收占收入 的比例持续提升。 25年一季度A股盈利回暖主要受 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the recommended stocks in the consumer sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the upcoming months [9][10][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights nine advantageous sectors within the consumer industry, including agriculture, retail, social services, automotive, textile and apparel, light industry, food, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals, with specific stock recommendations for each sector [5][9]. - The recommended stocks are expected to benefit from various growth drivers, including market expansion, product innovation, and favorable policy support [9][10]. Summary by Sector Agriculture - Recommended Stock: Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (中宠股份) - Focus on pet food industry with strong growth in domestic brands and global capacity expansion. Expected net profit for 2025-2026 is 440 million and 570 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 36 and 28 times [13]. Retail - Recommended Stock: Xiaoshangpin City (小商品城) - Benefits from the high demand for Yiwu small commodities and successful transformation into a foreign trade service provider. Expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.75, 0.95, and 1.14 CNY, maintaining a "Buy" rating [14]. Social Services - Recommended Stock: Keri International (科锐国际) - Positive outlook due to cyclical recovery and AI integration in operations. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 287 million, 399 million, and 523 million CNY, with PE ratios of 23, 17, and 13 times [15]. Automotive - Recommended Stock: Xiaomi Group (小米集团-W) - Anticipated growth driven by stable orders and new model launches. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 35.404 billion, 51.653 billion, and 65.531 billion CNY [16]. Textile and Apparel - Recommended Stock: Hailan Home (海澜之家) - Expected to benefit from e-commerce expansion and international growth. Projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 2.04 billion, 2.57 billion, and 3.43 billion CNY, with a PE ratio of 19, 15, and 11 times [17][18]. Light Industry - Recommended Stock: Dengkang Oral Care (登康口腔) - Growth driven by e-commerce and product innovation. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 200 million, 260 million, and 330 million CNY, with PE ratios of 38, 30, and 23 times [19]. Food - Recommended Stock: Wufangzhai (五芳斋) - Leading market position in the rice dumpling sector with expansion into new channels. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 181 million, 207 million, and 224 million CNY, with PE ratios of 22, 19, and 18 times [19]. Home Appliances - Recommended Stock: Gree Electric Appliances (格力电器) - Strong brand and cost advantages in the air conditioning market. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 35.519 billion, 38.452 billion, and 42.086 billion CNY, with low PE ratios of 7.34, 6.78, and 6.20 times [20]. Pharmaceuticals - Recommended Stock: Kangchen Pharmaceutical (康辰药业) - Focus on innovative drug development with promising products in the pipeline. Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 135 million, 216 million, and 286 million CNY [21][22].