1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The situation of the Iran geopolitical conflict remains unclear, and it is recommended to remain cautious about risk assets in the short - term. The remarks of Trump may help reduce the probability of the tail - risk of further deterioration of the situation, but cannot substantially relieve the Strait blockade. The domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and it has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. [1] - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short - term. The stock index, non - ferrous and precious metal sectors need to be vigilant against the drag caused by the further deterioration of market risk preference. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF. The US stagflation expectation is further strengthened, and the global stock market continues to be weak, which may suppress risk assets. [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overseas Macro - The impact of the Iran geopolitical situation on the financial market continues, and major asset prices fluctuate significantly. Trump's 48 - hour ultimatum is still in effect, but he said that the negotiation with Iran is "progressing very smoothly", which may help reduce the probability of the tail - risk of further deterioration of the situation. Crude oil prices significantly corrected on the evening of March 23, and major asset prices rebounded. [1] 3.2 Domestic Macro - The "15th Five - Year Plan" outlines an increase in the target of the added value of the core digital economy industry, adds indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy. It also focuses on rectifying involution - style competition, advancing carbon peak work, and improving the unified market and dual - carbon assessment and certification systems. The domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and the high seasonality of domestic port container throughput and the CRB index confirms the resilience of external demand. [1] 3.3 Asset Views - Be cautious about risk assets in the short - term. The stock index, non - ferrous and precious metal sectors may be dragged down by the deterioration of market risk preference. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF. The US stagflation expectation is strengthened, and the global stock market is weak, which may suppress risk assets. [1] 3.4 Market Performance 3.4.1 Financial Market - On March 23, 2026, stock index futures generally declined, with the CSI 300 futures down 3.94%, the SSE 50 futures down 3.83%, the CSI 500 futures down 5.16%, and the CSI 1000 futures down 5.87%. Treasury bond futures mostly declined, with the 2 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.03%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.06%, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.09%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures up 0.03%. The US dollar index rose 0.33%. [7] 3.4.2 Industry Index - On March 23, 2026, most industries in the CITIC industry index declined. Industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, and non - ferrous metals had relatively large declines, while the coal industry rose 0.35%. [8][9] 3.4.3 Overseas Commodities - As of March 20, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 2.66%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.61%, COMEX gold fell 2.47%, and COMEX silver fell 4.78%. [10][11] 3.4.4 Domestic Commodities - On March 23, 2026, shipping's container shipping to Europe line rose 7.61%, precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium generally declined, non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc had different trends, and black building materials such as steel, iron ore, and coke generally rose. Energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and methanol also had significant increases. [12][13] 3.5 Short - term Judgment of Each Sector - **Financial**: Stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate. [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver may have a corrective rebound after a short - term over - decline and are expected to fluctuate. [4] - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe line is expected to fluctuate weakly. [4] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to fluctuate. [4] - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: Most basic metals are expected to stop falling and fluctuate, and some varieties such as nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate strongly. [4] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to continue to fluctuate due to the unclear Middle - East geopolitical situation. [5] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are affected by geopolitical conflicts and have large fluctuations, with different trends for different varieties. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The market trends are influenced by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices (London gold) fell 1.88% to $4407.35 per ounce, while domestic gold (9999 on the gold exchange) rose 4.36% to 924.65, and Shanghai gold futures rose 4.26% to 940 yuan per gram. International silver prices rose 2.21% to $69.09 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Trump's statement on pausing military strikes and Iran's denial affected oil prices. There were changes in gold and silver inventories in different locations, and domestic gold ETFs had a small inflow [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider re - laying out long positions in gold; for silver, suggest gradually taking profits on previous short positions [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices were weak during the day and stabilized at night [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Trump's remarks affected the market, and the supply of copper ore remained tight while downstream procurement was active [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: With an unclear but easing situation, it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased 1.94% to 23555 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the conflict in the Middle East, short - term aluminum prices may face greater macro - pressure than industrial support and are expected to fluctuate widely [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased 1.71% to 3093 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina was relatively stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: With supply restrictions and cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, but the high domestic inventory and new capacity may limit the upside [2]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: Zinc and lead main contracts closed at 22800 yuan/ton and 16395 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 135 yuan/ton and + 105 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The lead market was affected by overseas declines, but the price difference between recycled lead and primary lead and downstream purchasing provided support. The zinc market had a bearish macro - sentiment, but consumption was gradually recovering [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For lead, watch the inventory reduction; for zinc, it is recommended to wait and see or use a high - selling and low - buying strategy [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8575 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase due to more furnaces and lower electricity prices. Demand from different industries showed different trends [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to possible industry meetings and expect the price to fluctuate between 8100 - 8900 yuan/ton [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 149,040 yuan/ton, up 3.6% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, demand from related industries also rose, and inventory showed different trends in different links [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe supply disruptions in Zimbabwe and April production schedules [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 35435 yuan/ton, down 2330 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eased marginally, and demand prices declined but at a slower pace [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, focusing on downstream procurement and order prices [2]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices stabilized and rebounded [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was tight but production in Wa State was resuming, and demand showed signs of inventory reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a clear macro - situation before buying [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3144 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Inventory was stable, demand was weak in the short - term, and supply decreased year - on - year. The market was affected by the possible cooling of the conflict [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and consider shorting the 2605 contract. The reference range is 3120 - 3180 yuan/ton [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 816 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand improved marginally, but there were structural contradictions. The market was affected by the conflict situation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The reference range is 800 - 830 yuan/ton [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1248.5 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron - making production increased, there was a game in coke price adjustment, and inventory was at a neutral level. The market was affected by the conflict [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and consider shorting the 2605 contract. The reference range is 1220 - 1290 yuan/ton [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher overnight [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Global supply is expected to be abundant, and demand shows seasonal characteristics [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans may enter a volatile period, and domestic soybean meal follows the cost side. Pay attention to crude oil and demand fulfillment [5]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices continued to rise, while spot prices fell [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress was slow, and policy - related factors affected the market [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [5]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian market was closed. ITS estimated a 36% increase in Malaysian exports from March 1 - 20 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand also increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price fluctuations follow crude oil. Pay attention to crude oil and production in the producing areas [5]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5429 yuan/ton, down 0.75% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: International sugar prices rose due to factors such as ethanol production expectations and Indian production. Domestic production increased and entered a stock - building stage [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [5]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices fell, and international crude oil prices dropped significantly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: International cotton prices were affected by crude oil, and domestic and international price differences changed. Domestic textile enterprise inventories decreased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a price range of 14900 - 15400 yuan/ton [5]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices continued to rise, and spot prices rose slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Festival demand boosted the market, but supply was sufficient [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices continued to decline, and spot prices also fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was strong and demand was weak, and attention should be paid to slaughter volume and sales rhythm [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to decline [6]. Energy Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract fell significantly. The spot price in North China was 8900 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis was weak [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to decrease due to production cuts and reduced imports, while demand is improving [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices follow crude oil. In the medium - term, consider short - selling at high prices [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 6250 yuan/ton, up 6.8% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Production of Asian ethylene - based PVC decreased, and demand from downstream factories resumed. Social inventory decreased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest a positive spread strategy [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1083 yuan/ton, up 2% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply continued to decrease, and inventory began to decline. The real - estate market was weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest buying glass and short - selling soda ash [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract fell significantly. The spot price in East China was 9400 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis was weak [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased due to production cuts and reduced imports, and demand improved [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices follow crude oil. In the medium - to - long - term, consider short - selling at high prices [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell significantly due to Trump's statement on negotiations with Iran [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The conflict in the Middle East affected oil production and exports, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a significant reduction in exports [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oil prices may continue to rise if the strait remains blocked, but may reverse if the situation eases [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract fell significantly. The spot price in East China was 11000 yuan/ton, and the market trading was average [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply of pure benzene and styrene may be affected by the conflict, and demand showed mixed trends [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices follow crude oil. In the long - term, supply - demand may weaken [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded due to Trump's statement on the productive talks between the US and Iran, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index and a short - term repair of the US stock market. However, the Iranian attitude remains tough, and the Middle East situation is still highly uncertain [1][2][13][18]. - The A - share market has deeply corrected due to the escalation of the US - Iran war. Although there are rumors of progress in the US - Iran negotiations, the sustainability of the market rebound remains to be seen [3][19]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by the US - Iran situation and their own fundamentals. For example, steel prices are driven by cost but lack fundamental support; coal prices are expected to rise in the short - term; copper prices are expected to maintain a wide - range shock [4][5][25][27][46]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump stated that the US - Iran talks were "productive", causing the global market risk appetite to rebound and the US dollar index to weaken. The US - Iran war may gradually come to an end. It is expected that the US dollar will be weak in the short - term [1][13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's Goolsbee believes that there may be a need to raise interest rates due to the inflation shock caused by the Middle East situation. Trump released a signal of easing, and the stock market rebounded in the short - term. However, the Iranian attitude is still tough, and the US stock market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for a clear right - hand signal [15][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares have deeply corrected, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3800 points. The US - Iran war has hit the global stock market, and although there are rumors of progress in the negotiations, the sustainability of the A - share rebound remains to be seen. It is recommended to maintain a low - position to avoid risks [3][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 80 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1293 billion yuan. The war situation is complex, and it is recommended to observe more and act less [21][22]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korea made an anti - dumping final ruling on Chinese and Japanese carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils. Steel prices are oscillating strongly due to the rise in energy and coking coal prices, but the fundamental driving force is insufficient. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the increase is limited [4][24][25][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable on March 23. The coal price has entered a short - term upward channel due to the impact of the Middle East energy issue. It is expected that the coal price will continue to rise in early April, but the sustainability needs to be vigilant [27]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The Middle East conflict may cause iron ore miners to face billions of dollars in additional fuel costs. The iron ore price continues to oscillate, and the short - term trend is not clear. As the conflict continues, both supply and demand may be damaged [28][29]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased slightly. The rise in shipping costs due to the Middle East conflict has increased the cost of imported soybeans in China, but there is no further upward driving force for soybean meal. It is necessary to pay attention to various uncertainties in the domestic and foreign markets [30]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In February 2026, the import volume of corn starch increased significantly. The supply of corn is expected to increase as the temperature rises, and the downstream demand has rigid support. The short - term market has intensified long - short games, and the medium - to - long - term upward amplitude is restricted by demand and policies [31][32]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - Platinum and palladium prices fell sharply, mainly due to the liquidity crisis. There is support at the spot end, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium in the medium - term, and reduce positions and take profits for long platinum - palladium ratio positions in the short - term [33][34]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly. The lead price has support from the cost of recycled lead, but the terminal consumption is facing the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [35][36]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The inventory of zinc ingots in seven places decreased. The zinc price has support from fundamentals, and it is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [37][38]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand for new energy vehicles is expected to improve. The lithium carbonate market is expected to be in a tight balance in March - April. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after the correction [40][41][42]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The Vatican launched an initiative to encourage investors to withdraw from the mining industry. The copper price is supported by the easing of the Middle East war, but there is a risk of the situation reversing. It is expected that the copper price will maintain a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage [43][46]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply and demand of tin are in a weak pattern, and the price is expected to operate weakly due to the continuous suppression of the Middle East geopolitical conflict [47][48][49]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Trump postponed the military strike against Iran for five days, causing the oil price to drop significantly. The Middle East situation is still highly uncertain, and the oil price will maintain high volatility [52][53]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG is expected to fluctuate widely due to the high sensitivity of the market to the geopolitical situation [54][55]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - Trump's statement of forming agreement points with Iran has reduced the war premium of the fuel oil market. The short - term market uncertainty is still large [55][56][57]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea price may be affected by coal prices in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by policies. It is recommended that market participants purchase based on rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [58][59]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in the East China main port decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene are expected to rise, and it is recommended to be long on aromatics [60][61][62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is rising. The supply and demand of caustic soda are improving marginally, and it may continue to be strong in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by the weak basis and high inventory [63][64][65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has risen, but the high - price resistance is obvious. The supply of PVC is expected to decrease, and the cost is rising. The PVC futures price is expected to be strong [66][67]. 3.2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The last foreign - controlled terminal has withdrawn from the Chinese mainland market. The container freight rate is affected by the geopolitical situation and oil prices. It is recommended to treat the market with a strong - oscillation idea in the short - term and pay attention to the changes in the US - Iran situation and oil prices [68][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no mention of the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran is tense, with conflicting statements from both sides. The control of the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for the global economy and the US hegemony. High oil prices and supply shortages may lead to a global economic downturn, and the stock market is at a dangerous critical point [1][2][3]. - The price of Brent crude oil may increase significantly if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for an extended period. The stock market may face a crash - like decline if the geopolitical situation does not improve in two weeks [1][2]. - The global economic situation is deteriorating, with the US economy facing challenges due to wrong policies and the potential negative impact of the stock market decline on consumption [3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Global Economic and Geopolitical Situation - The US President shows an intention to reach an agreement with Iran, but Iran's "senior leadership" denies the existence of negotiations, stating that the US President's statement aims to lower energy prices and gain time for military plans [1]. - The US Treasury Secretary mentions destroying Iranian facilities and that "all options are on the table", including seizing Kharg Island. Iran warns that US military bases and financial institutions supporting US military spending are "legitimate targets" [1]. - Yemen's Houthi rebels may block the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait to support Iran. Bridgewater's Dalio believes that the "ultimate battle" in the Middle East depends on who controls the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global energy and the US dollar's foundation [2]. - The IEA releases 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the actual global release rate is no more than 3 million barrels per day, while the supply gap caused by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is 11 - 16 million barrels per day [2][3]. Market and Asset Performance - Goldman Sachs extends the duration of a "5% flow" in the Strait of Hormuz from 3 weeks to 6 weeks, introduces a higher structural safety premium, and raises the average price of Brent in March - April to $110. If the blockage lasts for 10 weeks, the Brent crude oil price may exceed the 2008 record of $147 [1]. - The NASDAQ futures have broken through support levels. AI's disruptive substitution in many industries and the Middle East situation may trigger a new round of large - scale selling in the US stock market, and the decline in the US stock market may have a significant negative impact on US consumption [3]. - The call volume of domestic large - scale models has exceeded that of US models for three consecutive weeks, with a 56.9% increase from the previous week [1]. - Gold has unexpectedly underperformed risk assets in the short term, but its long - term allocation value remains solid due to the de - dollarization logic [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in gold prices despite geopolitical tensions, highlighting a shift in market dynamics where traditional safe-haven attributes of gold are being overshadowed by a strong US dollar and tightening liquidity conditions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have recently dropped significantly, with international gold prices falling below $4100 per ounce for the first time since November 24, erasing all gains for the year [1]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has noted increased volatility in precious metal prices due to various market instability factors, urging investors to manage risks carefully [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran have not led to the expected rise in gold prices, as the market is currently influenced more by a strong dollar and rising real interest rates [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that if the geopolitical situation escalates further, it could prolong the current downward adjustment in gold prices, while a significant reversal in the Iran situation could stabilize gold prices more quickly [3][6]. Group 3: Economic Factors - Rising oil prices due to geopolitical risks are affecting inflation expectations and market perceptions of Federal Reserve monetary policy, leading to a decrease in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][5]. - The dollar's status as a preferred safe-haven asset has strengthened, attracting funds that might have otherwise flowed into gold, resulting in a "dollar up, gold down" scenario [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the current downturn, long-term support for gold prices remains, driven by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credibility [7][8]. - Analysts believe that once the current liquidity crisis subsides, gold prices may stabilize and potentially rise again, with the market closely watching Federal Reserve policy changes [7][8].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product research report focusing on apples, dated March 23, 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji apple price index is 110.41 today, down 0.15 from the next working day; 6 - fruit average wholesale price is 7.94, up 0.24 from the next working day [2] - Prices of various apple varieties like Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80, etc., remain stable [2] Futures Prices - AP01 is 8647, down 25 from yesterday's close; AP05 is 10721, up 110 from yesterday's close; AP10 is 8830, up 3 from yesterday's close [2] - Price differences between different contracts also show certain changes, e.g., AP01 - AP05 is - 2074, down 135 [2] Basis - Qixia first and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 647, up 25; Qixia first and second - grade 80 - AP10 is - 830.0, down 3 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Market News - As of March 19, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 4.6843 million tons, a decrease of 0.3129 million tons from last week, and the de - stocking speed is at a relatively high level in recent years [6] - In the origin, the mainstream apple market is stable, with smooth transactions. Cold - storage high - quality goods are in short supply. Market arrivals are stable, and overall sales are okay, with stable mainstream prices [6] - In Shandong, the price of late - maturing paper - bagged Fuji in inventory is stable, with slow transactions for medium - quality goods. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable, but customer purchasing enthusiasm has declined slightly, and high - end goods are still in high demand [6] Trading Logic - Although the apple fundamentals are strong, with low cold - storage inventory and high cost for May contracts, the upward momentum and time for the May contract are insufficient due to the high previous price and upcoming position - limit for the May contract [5] - As the key growth period of new - season apples approaches, the market will focus on the new - season apple production, and the market is starting to pay attention to the expected high accumulated temperature this year [5] Trading Strategies - For the May contract, it is recommended to leave the market and wait and see [7] - For both arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80, Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, AP contract basis, and apple arrival volume in some markets, etc. [9][10][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On March 20, the four major index futures contracts of the current month showed mixed performance. IF rose by 0.24%, IH fell by 0.71%, IC fell by 0.4%, and IM fell by 0.39% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 12,841 lots, IH decreased by 117 lots, IC decreased by 8,295 lots, and IM increased by 8,391 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 21,044 lots, IH decreased by 10,992 lots, IC decreased by 19,285 lots, and IM decreased by 8,321 lots [2] - The trend strength of IF and IH is 0, and that of IC and IM is also 0 [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Contracts**: The closing price of IF2603 was 4596.8, up 0.24% with a basis of 29.78, and the trading volume was 25,901 lots, a decrease of 23,890 lots; IF2604 had a closing price of 4540, down 0.45% with a basis of -27.02, and the trading volume was 34,902 lots, an increase of 6,086 lots; IF2606 had a closing price of 4486.4, down 0.28% with a basis of -80.62, and the trading volume was 64,425 lots, an increase of 5,370 lots; IF2609 had a closing price of 4406.6, down 0.08% with a basis of -160.4, and the trading volume was 15,301 lots, a decrease of 407 lots [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing price of IH2603 was 2898.4, down 0.71% with a basis of 14.54, and the trading volume was 14,973 lots, a decrease of 8,797 lots; IH2604 had a closing price of 2881.4, down 1.01% with a basis of -2.46, and the trading volume was 15,993 lots, an increase of 4,676 lots; IH2606 had a closing price of 2865.8, down 0.95% with a basis of -18.06, and the trading volume was 30,791 lots, an increase of 2,984 lots; IH2609 had a closing price of 2832.6, down 0.83% with a basis of -51.26, and the trading volume was 7,007 lots, an increase of 1,020 lots [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing price of IC2603 was 7844.4, down 0.40% with a basis of 84.36, and the trading volume was 25,380 lots, a decrease of 28,804 lots; IC2604 had a closing price of 7696.6, down 1.39% with a basis of -63.44, and the trading volume was 48,577 lots, an increase of 9,577 lots; IC2606 had a closing price of 7559.4, down 1.16% with a basis of -200.6, and the trading volume was 104,148 lots, an increase of 12,885 lots; IC2609 had a closing price of 7382.8, down 1.06% with a basis of -377.2, and the trading volume was 22,030 lots, a decrease of 1,953 lots [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing price of IM2603 was 7876.2, down 0.39% with a basis of 92.77, and the trading volume was 39,279 lots, a decrease of 38,975 lots; IM2604 had a closing price of 7727.8, down 1.35% with a basis of -55.63, and the trading volume was 69,129 lots, an increase of 22,484 lots; IM2606 had a closing price of 7560, down 1.26% with a basis of -223.4, and the trading volume was 152,013 lots, an increase of 25,830 lots; IM2609 had a closing price of 7344, down 1.08% with a basis of -439.4, and the trading volume was 30,166 lots, a decrease of 948 lots [1] 2. Top 20 Member Positions in Index Futures - **IF Contracts**: For IF2603 and IF2604, the long positions decreased by 16,112 lots, and the short positions decreased by 16,933 lots; for IF2604, the net change in long positions was 7,623 lots, and the net change in short positions was 7,193 lots; for IF2606, the long positions increased by 12,138 lots, and the short positions increased by 11,782 lots; for IF2609, the long positions increased by 4,040 lots, and the short positions increased by 3,776 lots [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2603, the long positions decreased by 4,661 lots, and the short positions decreased by 6,554 lots; for IH2604, the net change in long positions was 6,237 lots, and the net change in short positions was 5,295 lots; for IH2606, the long positions increased by 5,781 lots, and the short positions increased by 6,528 lots; for IH2609, the long positions increased by 1,107 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,475 lots [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2603, the long positions decreased by 16,159 lots, and the short positions decreased by 17,895 lots; for IC2604, the net change in long positions was 10,519 lots, and the net change in short positions was 6,901 lots; for IC2606, the long positions increased by 13,275 lots, and the short positions increased by 10,568 lots; for IC2609, the long positions increased by 1,597 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,995 lots [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2603, the long positions decreased by 19,749 lots, and the short positions decreased by 23,822 lots; for IM2604, the net change in long positions was 5,296 lots, and the net change in short positions was -755 lots; for IM2606, the long positions increased by 13,106 lots, and the short positions increased by 11,428 lots; the data for IM2609 was not announced [5] 3. Important Drivers - The draft of the Financial Law of the People's Republic of China is open to public consultation. The draft further clarifies the functional positioning of the central bank, continuously improves the scientific and sound monetary policy system, actively promotes the construction of a macro - prudential management system, and maintains the stability of the RMB value and financial stability. It also implements full - cycle management of the access, operation, and exit of financial institutions, and severely cracks down on financial fraud and other behaviors, comprehensively strengthening financial supervision [7] - US President Trump said he could talk to Iran but did not want to stop the war for now. He also said he was confident that the Strait of Hormuz would "automatically" reopen at some point. Trump severely criticized NATO's performance in dealing with the Iranian issue. US Department of Defense officials have made detailed preparations for deploying US ground troops to Iran. The Iranian military threatened to launch a global devastating strike against "evil officials" of the US and Israel. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen said they might block the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait to support Iran. Switzerland announced a suspension of exports of war materials to the US [7] 4. Market Conditions - **A - share Market**: The large and small indices of A - shares showed significant differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.24% at 3957.05 points, hitting a new low for the year; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.3%, and the Wind All - A Index fell 1.23%. The market turnover was 2.3 trillion yuan. Photovoltaic concept stocks soared, while the lithium - battery industry chain, optical modules, and CPO concept stocks rose against the trend; themes such as computing power leasing, cloud computing, AI applications, and robots led the decline [8] - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.88% at 25277.32 points, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.48%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.4%. Heavy - weight technology stocks generally fell, with Xiaomi Group falling more than 8% and Alibaba falling more than 6%. Lithium - battery stocks soared against the trend. Southbound funds sold a net of more than HK$21 billion, while Xiaomi Group and Alibaba received net purchases of HK$2.459 billion and HK$2.037 billion respectively [9] - **US Stock Market**: The three major US stock indices closed down across the board. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.96% to 45577.47 points, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.51% to 6506.48 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.01% to 21647.61 points. Honeywell International and NVIDIA fell more than 3%, leading the decline in the Dow. The Wind US Technology Seven Giants Index fell 2.03%, Tesla fell more than 3%, and Facebook fell more than 2%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 2.92%, with Kingsoft Cloud falling more than 9% and XPeng Motors falling more than 8%. The market was pressured by multiple factors such as the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the increased risk of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the rising inflation expectations, and investors' risk - aversion sentiment was high [9] - **European Stock Market**: The three major European stock indices closed down across the board. The German DAX Index fell 2.01% to 22380.19 points, the French CAC40 Index fell 1.82% to 7665.62 points, and the UK FTSE 100 Index fell 1.44% to 9918.33 points. The geopolitical conflict led to a sharp rise in energy prices, reigniting inflation concerns, and coupled with the hawkish signals from the ECB, the market's risk - aversion sentiment increased. This week, the German DAX Index fell 4.55%, the French CAC40 Index fell 3.11%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index fell 3.34% [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals tumbled overall. After last week's interest - rate meetings of the Fed and the ECB sent hawkish signals, the market anticipates that the Fed may not cut rates this year. The threat of war and high oil prices have intensified inflation concerns. Before the war shows obvious signs of easing, precious metals may remain weak, with the gold price testing the support at $4000 per ounce [1]. - The market trading logic has shifted from "re - inflation" to "weak demand in recession", causing funds to shift from precious metals and non - ferrous metals to the energy and chemical sectors. Macro, capital, and fundamentals fail to provide effective bullish factors, leading to a gap - down decline in the precious metals market. Due to the strong cost support of platinum and palladium, the first support below the market can refer to the high - cost line of mines [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - Precious metals dropped significantly today. International gold and silver prices broke through key levels and declined [1]. - Gold and silver prices plunged from high levels, the financial premium of platinum and palladium shrank substantially, and the market pricing gradually moved closer to that of industrial metals [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - Central bank policies: The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged. The median forecast of the dot - plot shows that the committee still expects one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, but the number of officials supporting larger - scale rate cuts has decreased, indicating a more conservative policy path. Powell mentioned that the Fed won't consider rate cuts until seeing further progress on inflation, and the possibility of rate hikes has been discussed internally. After the meeting, the market expects the Fed may not cut rates this year [1]. - Geopolitical factors: The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard warned that if Trump's threat to attack Iranian power plants is carried out, Iran will take a series of measures, including completely closing the Strait of Hormuz. High oil prices have intensified inflation concerns, causing a fall in assets such as stocks and putting pressure on precious metals. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the Strait of Hormuz is not blocked, and non - hostile ships can pass through after coordinating with Iranian authorities [1][3]. - Market logic shift: Market trading logic has changed from "re - inflation" to "weak demand in recession", and funds are flowing from precious metals and non - ferrous metals to the energy and chemical sectors [2]. - Fundamental factors: The consumer - side narrative of large - scale application of hydrogen energy needs time to materialize, and the substitution of electric vehicles for traditional fuel vehicles continues, resulting in insufficient support for platinum and palladium prices from the consumer side [2]. Support Levels - The gold price is testing the support at $4000 per ounce [1]. - For platinum and palladium, the first support below the market can refer to the high - cost line of mines. The current mining cost of platinum and palladium in South African deep - well mines is generally above $1150 per ounce (about 254 yuan per gram, converted at an exchange rate of 6.87) [2].

Tabl e_Title 2026 年 3 月 23 日 大类资产运行周报（20260316-20260320） 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | | -0.42% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck | 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -1.97% | | 全球债券指数 | | -0.14% | | 全球国债指数 | | -0.12% | | 全球信用债指数 | 姓名 | -0.15% | | 美元指数 | | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | -0.99% | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 0.36% | | | | 021-68767839 | 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20251208 -20251212)- 美元如期降息 权益资产 走势分化 大类资产运行周报（20251222 -20251226)- 市场偏好有所回升 风险 资产价格上涨 大类资产运行周 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: March 23, 2026 [2] IM Futures Market Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,409.11, down 4.81%. The main contract of IM fell 5.55% to close at 7,190 points. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 325,166 lots, an increase of 73,858 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 408,928 lots, an increase of 16,966 lots from the previous day [3][4]. - The main contract of IM was at a discount of 219.11 points, up 4.32 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -12.09%. The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0 points, 0.14 points, 38.43 points, and 59.68 points respectively [4]. Main Seats - In IM2604, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 69,057 lots, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 58,217 lots, Zhongtai Futures (on behalf of clients) with 23,433 lots, Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 19,108 lots, and Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) with 17,427 lots [16]. - Similar data is provided for IM2606 and IM2609 contracts [20]. IF Futures Market Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,418.00, down 3.26%. The main contract of IF fell 3.56% to close at 4,344.4 points. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 156,918 lots, an increase of 42,290 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 276,923 lots, an increase of 13,787 lots from the previous day [21][22]. - The main contract of IF was at a discount of 73.6 points, up 7.02 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -6.72%. The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 0 points, 0.48 points, 29.67 points, and 83.19 points respectively [22]. Main Seats - In IF2604, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 32,723 lots, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 24,845 lots, Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 10,623 lots, Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) with 10,088 lots, and Guoxin Futures (on behalf of clients) with 8,652 lots [36]. - Similar data is provided for IF2606 and IF2609 contracts [39]. IC Futures Market Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 7,440.75, down 4.11%. The main contract of IC fell 4.88% to close at 7,235 points. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 217,723 lots, an increase of 42,968 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 298,855 lots, an increase of 8,495 lots from the previous day [41][42]. - The main contract of IC was at a discount of 205.75 points, down 5.11 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -11.28%. The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 0 points, 7.07 points, 58.9 points, and 95.52 points respectively [42]. Main Seats - In IC2604, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 25,155 lots, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 18,565 lots, Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 9,339 lots, Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) with 5,214 lots, and Zhongtai Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,372 lots [55]. - Similar data is provided for IC2606 and IC2609 contracts [57]. IH Futures Market Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 2,792.33, down 3.17%. The main contract of IH fell 3.43% to close at 2,776 points. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 78,380 lots, an increase of 24,589 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 115,469 lots, an increase of 14,676 lots from the previous day [59]. - The main contract of IH was at a discount of 16.33 points, up 1.73 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -2.33%. The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 0 points, 0 points, 18.31 points, and 62.65 points respectively [60]. Main Seats - In IH2604, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 15,950 lots, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 12,718 lots, Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 5,530 lots, Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,540 lots, and Guoxin Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,215 lots [71]. - Similar data is provided for IH2606 and IH2609 contracts [73][75].