广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉认为，新政将降低二手住宅交易摩擦，促进挂牌销售。此前 房地产市场销售纾困政策主要集中在降低首付比例、降低利率等，税费优惠政策较少。新政反映出宏观 政策正在加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳定房地产市场。(贺觉渊) 12月30日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》，明确个人将购买不足2年 的住房对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上(含2年)的住房对外销售的， 免征增值税。《公告》自2026年1月1日起施行。 本次政策优化主要针对个人出售持有不满2年的住房的情形。该情形下，个人销售住房所缴增值税的税 率从此前的5%下调至3%。以住房售价500万元、个人持有不满2年计算，新政实施后，个人出售该住房 需缴增值税税费15万元，税费成本将较此前减少10万元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new VAT policy effective from January 1, 2026, will impose a 3% VAT on individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years, while those selling homes purchased for two years or more will be exempt from VAT, reflecting a significant tax reform aimed at simplifying the tax system and promoting a healthier real estate market [1][2]. Group 1 - The VAT rate for individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years will be reduced from 5% to 3% [1]. - The exemption of VAT for individuals selling homes purchased for two years or more maintains legislative consistency following the implementation of the VAT law [1]. - The new policy is expected to provide a direct reduction in tax burden for individuals, positively impacting the development of the real estate market [2]. Group 2 - The VAT law aims to simplify and standardize the tax system by reducing the number of applicable tax rates for small-scale taxpayers [1]. - Prior to the new VAT law, small-scale taxpayers faced VAT rates of either 3% or 5%, with the 5% rate being a carryover from previous business tax policies [1]. - The legislative changes reflect the spirit of tax law and the need for a more streamlined tax structure [1].

Market Overview - Stock market indexes have experienced a slight decline following a strong year, with the Nasdaq up +21% year to date and other major indexes also showing double-digit gains [1] - The Chicago Business Barometer reported a +36.3% print, the lowest since May 2024, indicating ongoing economic challenges [6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is currently averaging +2.5% GDP growth, slightly above the +2.4% seen throughout 2024, following a robust +4.3% in Q3 2025 [2] - The CPI Inflation Rate has decreased by 30 basis points to +2.7%, but analysts caution that this data may be revised upward due to potential tariff impacts on trade goods [3] Employment Situation - Weekly Jobless Claims show benign numbers, but new hires are down approximately -100K compared to last year, indicating a potential labor market issue [4] - The retirement boom is cooling, but the workforce is not adequately replenished, and recent graduates face high unemployment rates [4] Housing Market - Pending Home Sales for November increased by +3.3%, marking a positive shift after previous months of decline, while Case-Shiller Home Prices rose by +1.1% in October, reversing prior losses [5] Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the last FOMC meeting reveal differing opinions on interest rate adjustments, with some advocating for a -50bps cut while others support maintaining the current rate [7] - The market anticipates a pause in rate changes at the next FOMC meeting in late January, with significant focus on upcoming inflation and employment reports [8]

"通过降低二手房出售成本，能够促进二手房市场活跃。二手房市场的活跃又会带动新房市场的发展， 形成良性循环。"严跃进表示，这有助于促进房地产市场循环机制的畅通和市场的向好发展。 《公告》自2026年1月1日起施行。《财政部国家税务总局关于全面推开营业税改征增值税试点的通知》 (财税〔2016〕36号)附件3《营业税改征增值税试点过渡政策的规定》第五条第一款同步停止执行。 2026年1月1日前，个人销售住房涉及的增值税尚未申报缴纳的，符合该公告规定的可按该公告执行。 "这是房地产领域一项关键政策调整。"上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进在接受《证券日报》记者采 访时分析称，此次政策最显著的变化是增值税征收率的下调。过去，个人将购买不足2年的住房对外销 售的，按照5%的征收率全额缴纳增值税，如今调整为按3%计算，这一调整直接降低了房屋出售环节的 税费成本。 严跃进分析称，此次政策调整具有诸多积极意义，比如可减轻房东负担，促进市场流通。同时，相关政 策有利于更好满足改善性住房需求。当房东出售旧房的成本降低后，他们更有能力和意愿将旧房出售， 进而换购新房。这有利于推动整个房地产市场的升级与发展。此外，税费成本的降低也为买 ...

转自：北京日报客户端 个人销售住房增值税政策明年起调整 新华社北京12月30日电财政部、国家税务总局12月30日对外发布公告，明确自2026年1月1日起，个人 （不含个体工商户中的一般纳税人）将购买不足2年的住房对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴纳增值 税；个人将购买2年以上（含2年）的住房对外销售的，免征增值税。 中国政法大学财税法研究中心主任施正文介绍，2026年1月1日起增值税法施行后，继续对个人销售购买 2年以上的住房免征增值税，很好地保持了立法后的税制连贯性。同时，将个人销售购买不足2年的住房 的增值税征收率，从5%下调到3%，是落实增值税法的重要举措，体现了税收法定和简化税制的立法精 神。 据介绍，在增值税法施行前，我国小规模纳税人适用的增值税征收率主要包括3%和5%两档，5%征收率 主要是"营改增"时平移的原营业税政策，个人销售购买不足2年的住房适用5%征收率就是这种情况。增 值税完成立法后，进一步简化和规范了税制，减少征收率档次。根据增值税法及其实施条例的规定，小 规模纳税人适用3%的征收率。 施正文表示，明年起，个人销售购买不足2年的住房，可充分享受立法红利，其增值税税负有较为直观 的下降， ...

12月30日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》称，个人(不含个体工商户中的一般纳税人，下同)将购买不 足2年的住房对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上(含2年)的住房对外销售的，免征增值税。 该公告自2026年1月1日起施行。 此次政策前，个人将购买不足2年的住房对外销售时，增值税税率为5%。因此，此次政策出台后，二手住宅交易成本将进一步下降。 以房屋出售价格200万元、持有未满两年计算，新政前需缴纳的增值税为10万元，新政后只需缴纳6万元，政策将节约4万元的交易成本。 这也是自2016年全面"营改增"以来，我国首次对个人销售住房增值税税率进行调整。 广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉指出，随着交易成本的下降，更多的需求将被释放。同时，因交易成本高而不得不大尺度降 价卖房的案例也将减少。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进也表示，此举可以更好地满足改善性住房需求的释放。随着成本下降，房主更有能力和意愿将旧房 出售，进而换购新房。 疏通置换链条 此次增值税政策的调整，与当前的政策与市场背景密不可分。 根据国家统计局的数据，今年前11月，全国新建商品房销售面积、 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a significant adjustment to the value-added tax (VAT) policy for personal housing sales, effective January 1, 2026. The VAT rate for personal sales of homes purchased for less than two years will be reduced from 5% to 3%, while sales of homes purchased for two years or more will continue to be exempt from VAT [3][6]. - The reduction in VAT is expected to enhance the activity in the second-hand housing market by lowering transaction costs. For example, on a house valued at 1 million, the total tax burden will decrease from 5.3% to 3.18%, significantly reducing the costs associated with selling homes held for a shorter duration [6]. - The report emphasizes the improved cost-effectiveness of the sector and suggests that the recent policy changes in Beijing and the VAT adjustment are likely to stimulate positive marginal changes in the industry [6]. Summary by Sections - **Policy Changes**: The VAT rate for personal housing sales has been adjusted, which is anticipated to boost market activity [3][6]. - **Market Impact**: The overall tax burden on short-term housing sales has been significantly reduced, which is expected to increase the liquidity in the second-hand housing market [6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests that certain quality companies, particularly those with strong inventory structures and product capabilities, should be considered for investment, especially those showing early signs of improvement in their annual reports [6].

Market Analysis - The stock market is experiencing a volatile divergence, with a slow bull market continuing. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12 points, remaining flat, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13604.07 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.63% to 3242.90 points. The total market turnover was 2.16 trillion, maintaining above 2 trillion for three consecutive days, indicating a further increase in market divergence [2][5][7]. Sector Performance - The technology sector is leading the market, particularly driven by the robotics concept, which saw significant gains. Notable increases include Yushun Robotics up by 3.66% and other related stocks reaching their daily limit. The establishment of a standardization committee for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence is expected to catalyze growth in this sector [5][6][7]. - Conversely, the consumer sector is under pressure, with declines in retail, transportation, real estate, and consumer services, attributed to profit-taking after previous gains from stimulus policies [5][6]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the slow bull market remains intact, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4000 points and a stable turnover of around 2 trillion providing ample liquidity. The market's financing balance has surpassed 2.5 trillion, and the depreciation of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to attract foreign investment, maintaining a loose liquidity environment [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring industry catalysts, particularly in technology and resource sectors, as the market is currently experiencing a combination of technological growth and resource cycle trends [7][9]. Bond Market Insights - The bond market is showing a mixed trend, with the long-end of the government bond futures leading gains. The 30-year government bond futures closed at 111.83, up by 0.17%, while the 10-year futures slightly declined. The liquidity expectations for the year-end remain stable, with the interbank market continuing to show a loose funding environment [10][11]. Commodity Market Overview - The commodity index has risen, but precious metals are experiencing increased volatility. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose by 0.43%, while precious metals like platinum and palladium faced significant declines of 13%. The market sentiment is influenced by profit-taking and regulatory tightening in trading policies [9][14]. - Industrial products are rebounding, particularly those related to domestic demand, as the government continues to push for anti-involution policies, which are expected to impact supply and pricing dynamics positively [14]. Recent Trading Hotspots - Key trading hotspots include precious metals, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, AI applications, and consumer sectors, with each sector having specific catalysts and monitoring points for future developments [11][12][13].

12月30日，财政部、税务总局联合发布关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告，明确调整个人售房增值税 征收标准，该公告自2026年1月1日起正式施行。 根据公告内容，个人（不含个体工商户中的一般纳税人）将购买不足2年的住房对外销售的，按照3%的 征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上（含2年）的住房对外销售的，免征增值税。与此同时， 《财政部国家税务总局关于全面推开营业税改征增值税试点的通知》（财税〔2016〕36号）附件3《营 业税改征增值税试点过渡政策的规定》第五条第一款同步停止执行。对于2026年1月1日前个人销售住房 涉及的增值税尚未申报缴纳的，符合本公告规定的可按新政策执行。 深圳乐有家的数据测算显示，以个人购买过户价500万元的住房为例，若购买不足2年对外销售，按照新 政策执行后，增值税可节省9.25万元，直观体现了政策对交易成本的降低作用。 影响：降低成本，释放购房需求 广东省城规院住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉指出，此次新政的核心影响在于将持有2年以下住房 的售房增值税率从5%降至3%，直接实现2年以内房产交易成本下降2%，而持有2年以上住房的免税政策 保持不变。 关于税费政策调整的原因，李宇嘉 ...

Economic Overview - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown a slight recovery, reaching 5.22% as of December 21, up 0.06 percentage points from the previous week [2] - Real estate sales are improving, with the year-on-year decline in residential property transaction area narrowing to -19% for the week ending December 26, compared to -34% in November [2][3] - Infrastructure construction is seeing improvements, with the operating rate of asphalt plants rising to 31.3%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the previous week [2][3] Price Trends - Prices of major commodities have increased, with COMEX gold closing at $4546.2 per ounce (up 4.6%), LME copper at $12218 per ton (up 4.1%), and Brent crude oil at $60.6 per barrel (up 1.4%) [2][34] - The price of second-hand homes has decreased by 0.2% in first-tier cities and nationwide, with a cumulative decline of 6.3% in first-tier cities this year [37] Consumer Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars remain low, with a year-on-year growth rate of -11% in the third week of December, compared to -17% previously [13] - The average land premium rate across 100 cities was 1.6% in December, down from 2.7% in November [13] Production Insights - The operating rates in various industries are weak, with notable declines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines and full-steel tires [15] - The asphalt plant operating rate has improved, indicating a slight recovery in infrastructure [15] Trade Dynamics - Port container throughput has decreased by 5.9% week-on-week as of December 21, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [19] - The shipping market is showing positive trends, with the Shanghai export container freight index rising by 6.7% [20] Interest Rates - The yield on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds are reported at 1.2872%, 1.5948%, and 1.8376% respectively, with mixed changes compared to the previous week [47]