Group 1: AI Products - The article discusses the intensive release of edge AI products, highlighting the growing trend in the technology sector [34]. Group 2: Military Industry Insights - Insights on the military industry are presented, focusing on recent developments and trends that may impact investment opportunities [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Configuration Model - A review and update of the industry configuration model is scheduled, indicating ongoing analysis and adjustments in response to market conditions [35]. Group 4: Exhibition Management Discussion - A discussion with the management of Miao Exhibition is planned, which may provide insights into the service industry and its current challenges [34]. Group 5: Chemical Industry Investment Opportunities - An exchange on investment opportunities in the chemical industry for 2026 is set, suggesting potential growth areas for investors [34]. Group 6: Retail Changes - A session discussing new changes in the retail sector is scheduled, reflecting shifts in consumer behavior and market dynamics [34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the recovery of PPI as a significant macroeconomic theme for 2026, which is expected to strengthen corporate profitability and provide solid fundamental support compared to 2025 [7][19][20] - The report predicts that the net profit growth rate for the non-financial sector of the entire A-share market is expected to exceed 10% in 2026, driven by the recovery of PPI [20][22] - The report highlights that the recovery slope of PPI will depend on the degree of fiscal expansion, with a steeper recovery indicating stronger market performance [26][32] Group 2 - The report identifies key industry configurations for 2026, including sectors benefiting from U.S. interest rate cuts, external demand, AI, price increases, and an active capital market [8][19] - Specific sectors such as industrial metals, electric grid equipment, energy storage, battery materials, and certain chemicals are expected to benefit from increased external demand and U.S. capital expenditure expansion [8][19] - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly in AI and robotics, will continue to see high demand and potential growth, with a focus on software, media, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][19][40] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the first half of 2026 will present a favorable time window for growth performance, driven by domestic policy initiatives and external interest rate cuts [7][44] - The potential for a "spring rally" is highlighted, with expectations that it may occur earlier than usual due to clearer interest rate cut expectations and favorable market conditions [7][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the pace of resident deposit migration and foreign capital inflow as critical variables influencing market dynamics [7][36][41]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the initiation of a "spring surge" market, led by technology sectors, particularly focusing on AI computing power and commercial aerospace as dual main lines for investment opportunities [3][13][37] - The transition from a policy-driven market to one driven by fundamental earnings growth is highlighted, with expectations of a stable macroeconomic environment supporting this shift [13][22] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and high-end manufacturing, while traditional sectors like real estate and energy remain under pressure [22][37] Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion have positively impacted global risk assets, creating a favorable environment for A-shares to remain in an upward trajectory [12][13] - The Central Economic Work Conference has set priorities for 2026, emphasizing domestic demand and technological development, which are expected to bolster market confidence [12][13] Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly AI hardware, is noted for its resilience and growth potential, with specific attention to the TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) supply chain and related components like optical modules and storage chips [27][31][32] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a significant policy boost, with the establishment of a dedicated commercial aerospace department and supportive government actions expected to enhance market confidence and growth prospects [37] Market Trends - Recent market movements show a preference for growth-oriented sectors, with notable gains in communications and electronics, while traditional sectors face declines [22][34] - The report indicates a strong inflow of funds into electronic and communication sectors, reflecting investor confidence in these areas [34][35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the TPU industry chain, particularly in light of anticipated shortages in optical communication chips and the expected price increases in 2026 [28][31][32] - Key stocks in the TPU supply chain have shown significant price increases, indicating strong market performance and potential for further growth [32]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the spring market rally is expected to occur, driven by policy expectations, seasonal liquidity changes, and institutional repositioning, despite recent market adjustments [1][5] - Strong expectations are crucial for the strength of the spring rally, which can be influenced by macro fundamentals, corporate earnings trends, and liquidity environment [1][6] - Currently, positive factors are concentrated in technology sectors, with opportunities emerging in oversold growth industries such as military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, and power equipment [1][3][7] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes "optimizing" as a priority, focusing on economic potential and structural reforms, with a stable fiscal policy and flexible monetary policy [2][6] - The conditions favoring technology remain unchanged, with growth-type spring rallies historically accounting for nearly 60% of spring market trends, while cyclical rallies account for about 40% [2][6] - Short-term indicators for technology dominance include TMT transaction volume exceeding 40%, while long-term conditions depend on changes in relative profitability [2][6] Group 3 - The market correction is believed to be concluding, and there are recommendations for early positioning in the spring rally, focusing on dual drivers of technology and cyclical opportunities [3][7] - Specific sectors for investment include military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, batteries, and core AI hardware, alongside benefits from PPI improvements in solar, chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, electricity, and machinery [3][7] - Long-term investment strategies should include stable dividends, gold, and optimized high-yield stocks [3][7]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 量化周报 市场的震荡调整态势不改 市场的震荡调整态势不改。本周（ 12.8-12.12），大盘震荡下行，上证指数 全周收跌 0.34%。在此背景下，煤炭、钢铁、农林牧渔确认日线级别下跌， 军工迎来日线级别上涨。市场的本轮上涨自 4 月 7 日以来，日线级别反弹 已经持续了 7 个多月，反弹幅度也基本在 30%左右，各大指数和板块的 上涨基本都轮动了一遍，超半数的行业日线级别上涨处于超涨状态，几乎 所有的规模指数及一半以上的行业更是走出了复杂的 9-17浪的上涨结构， 科创 50、中小 100 更是在所有宽基里面率先形成了日线级别下跌，地产、 食品饮料、医药、商贸零售、汽车、电子、计算机、非银、机械、煤炭、 钢铁、农林牧渔也相继形成了日线级别下跌，中证 500、中证 1000、创业 板指、沪深 300、传媒、建筑、建材也有较大概率将确认日线级别下跌。 因此我们认为本轮日线级别上涨大概率已经结束。未来市场大概率会是震 荡调整的态势，当下的反弹大概率只是一波 30 分钟级别反弹，不改市场 的震荡调整态势。中期来看，上证指数、上证 ...

Market Overview - Global markets showed divergence this week with a cooling risk appetite; the Dow Jones increased by 1.05% while the Nasdaq fell by 1.62%, indicating a shift of funds away from overvalued growth stocks [1] - European stocks remained weak, while Asian markets, particularly in China, Japan, and South Korea, saw gains; Hong Kong stocks slightly declined by 0.42% [1] - In the commodity sector, oil prices decreased, while gold and copper prices strengthened [1] A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market exhibited structural fluctuations, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.74% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 1.72%, showcasing resilience in the technology growth sector; however, the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index experienced slight declines [1] - Market turnover shrank, leading to a focus on small and mid-cap growth sectors amid a stock game [1] Sector Performance - Industry performance showed increasing divergence, with sectors such as telecommunications, military, and electronics leading gains driven by policy support; the telecommunications sector saw a rise of 6.27% [1] - Conversely, cyclical sectors like coal, oil and petrochemicals, and real estate experienced notable pullbacks [1] Policy Environment - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for "seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency," emphasizing support for technological innovation and new productive forces, and mentioned the flexible use of interest rate cuts [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve also reinforced global liquidity easing [1] Outlook - Looking ahead to next week, the structural market trend in A-shares is expected to continue, supported by internal policy expectations and external liquidity conditions; the technology growth theme is likely to remain dominant, with continued attention on telecommunications, electronics, semiconductors, and military sectors [1] - Hong Kong stocks may benefit from improved liquidity and valuation advantages, with a potential recovery in technology and financial sectors [1] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to focus on sectors with clear industrial trends and strong policy support, such as AI computing power, domestic substitution, and high-end manufacturing, while avoiding chasing high valuations and emphasizing strategic positioning during pullbacks [1]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a core supplier in the automotive and oil & gas sectors, with new growth engines ignited by military products [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry and unconventional oil and gas development, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 9.3 billion, 11.1 billion, and 13.7 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 20, 17, and 14 times [1][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Expansion and Competitive Position - The company is a leading player in the automotive interior and exterior parts, high-performance functional materials, and oil & gas equipment sectors, with strong R&D capabilities [11]. - The company has a long development history and has established a new growth path through restructuring [13]. - The company leverages its strong technical strength to actively expand its product layout [15]. - The company's reasonable shareholding structure and subsidiaries contribute to revenue generation [18]. - The company has shown stable revenue growth, with a significant increase in operating income and enhanced cost control capabilities [24][25]. - A major project adjustment has been made to focus on core military products, optimizing resource allocation [27]. 2. Automotive Interior and Exterior Parts - The company provides a diverse range of automotive interior and exterior parts, closely collaborating with leading automotive manufacturers [32]. - The automotive industry is rapidly developing, and the automotive parts market is expected to grow significantly [35]. - The company maintains stable partnerships with major manufacturers, solidifying its market position [41]. - Government policies supporting the development of the new energy vehicle industry are expected to benefit the automotive parts sector [43]. 3. High-Performance Functional Materials - The company’s high-performance functional materials business is poised for growth, driven by increasing demand in various industries [46]. - The company has developed new products in electronic functional materials, leveraging its strong R&D capabilities [50]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the national high-speed rail "going out" strategy, which presents opportunities for its magnetic ticket business [46]. 4. Unconventional Oil and Gas Development - The company has significant technological advantages in unconventional oil and gas development, with a focus on deep-sea economic opportunities [52]. - The company’s oil and gas equipment business is expected to grow due to breakthroughs in unconventional resource extraction [55]. - The company has established a strong market position in the domestic oil and gas equipment sector, with products exported to over 20 countries [53]. 5. Military Business Growth - The company is focusing on military products, particularly large quantity explosive columns and collaborative production of explosive items, to fulfill its responsibilities in national defense [66]. - The demand for military fire control products is increasing due to accelerated national defense modernization [67]. - The company’s strategic adjustments align with national policies supporting defense and military modernization, positioning it for rapid growth in military business [70]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The company’s business segments are clearly defined, with traditional high-performance functional materials maintaining growth while focusing on automotive parts and oil & gas equipment [71]. - The automotive parts business is expected to grow at rates of 19%, 16%, and 14% from 2025 to 2027 [74]. - The oil and gas equipment business is projected to grow at a steady rate of 10% annually during the same period [74]. - The high-performance functional materials segment is anticipated to grow at 15% annually from 2025 to 2027 [75].

Core Insights - The market shows a clear differentiation with a "weak Shanghai, strong Shenzhen" pattern, where most broad-based indices have retreated after reaching highs [1][12][53] - The report anticipates continued market fluctuations within a range due to insufficient strength in heavyweight indices and significant sector divergence [1][4][55] - Suggested investment strategy includes a cautious approach, focusing on sectors that are lagging yet expanding, such as brokerage firms, home appliances, and machinery equipment [1][5][56] Market Overview - Major indices experienced a "weak Shanghai, strong Shenzhen" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 down by 0.34%, 0.25%, and 0.08% respectively, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84% [12][53] - The technology and hard science sectors led the gains, with telecommunications rising by 5.92%, while cyclical and consumer sectors showed weakness [15][54] - Daily average trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 2.33 trillion yuan, with a rise in margin trading balances [22][29] Sector Analysis - The report highlights that 9 out of 30 major sectors increased, while 21 decreased, indicating a strong performance in technology and hard science sectors, contrasted by declines in cyclical and consumer sectors [15][54] - Notable sector performances include military, electronics, and machinery, which saw increases of 3.57%, 2.51%, and 1.33% respectively, while coal, oil, and real estate sectors faced declines [15][54] Investment Strategy - The report advises a "wait and see" approach, recommending investors avoid chasing prices and instead set targets based on historical lows of various indices [5][56] - Specific sectors to watch include brokerage firms, which are lagging but expanding, home appliances with a strong historical performance in December, and machinery equipment benefiting from recent positive news [1][5][56] - Individual stocks in the pharmaceutical, consumer, and AI application sectors that are relatively low in price should be monitored, along with those that are lagging above the annual line [5][56]

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the performance of various mutual funds, highlighting the top and bottom performers based on net asset value changes [1] Group 1: Top Performing Funds - The top 10 mutual funds with the highest net value growth include: 1. 德邦新兴产业混合发起式A with a growth of 6.45% 2. 德邦新兴产业混合发起式C with a growth of 6.44% 3. 东方低碳经济混合A with a growth of 6.27% 4. 东方低碳经济混合C with a growth of 6.27% 5. 富荣福鑫混合A with a growth of 6.12% 6. 富荣福鑫混合C with a growth of 6.11% 7. 同泰新能源1年持有股票C with a growth of 5.81% 8. 同泰新能源1年持有股票A with a growth of 5.81% 9. 华富天鑫灵活配置混合A with a growth of 5.19% 10. 华富天鑫灵活配置混合C with a growth of 5.18% [2] Group 2: Bottom Performing Funds - The bottom 10 mutual funds with the lowest net value growth include: 1. 德邦乐享生活混合A with a decline of 3.28% 2. 德邦乐享生活混合C with a decline of 3.27% 3. 泰信发展主题混合 with a decline of 2.51% 4. 东方阿尔法瑞享混合发起C with a decline of 2.19% 5. 东方阿尔法瑞享混合发起A with a decline of 2.19% 6. 中欧制造升级混合发起C with a decline of 1.90% 7. 中欧制造升级混合发起A with a decline of 1.90% 8. 易方达优势回报混合(FOF-LOF)C with a decline of 1.77% 9. 易方达优势回报混合(FOF-LOF)A with a decline of 1.76% 10. 泰信现代服务业混合 with a decline of 1.74% [3] Group 3: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but rebounded, closing with a small gain, while the ChiNext Index experienced a similar pattern. The total trading volume reached 2.11 trillion yuan, with a market breadth of 2,683 gainers to 2,612 losers [5] - Leading sectors included non-ferrous metals, engineering machinery, electrical equipment, and semiconductors, while lagging sectors included commercial retail, public transportation, and oil [5]

Group 1 - India imposed a temporary 12% tariff on imported steel to protect domestic manufacturers, particularly small and medium-sized steel companies, starting from April 21, 2023 [1][3] - The tariff aims to stabilize the local market and reduce reliance on cheap imports, especially from China, which has become India's second-largest source of steel imports for the fiscal year 2024-2025 [1][3] - The Indian government acknowledges that while the tariff may alleviate short-term pressures, it does not address the underlying issues of domestic steel production competitiveness [3] Group 2 - During a visit by U.S. Vice President JD Vance to India, discussions included a roadmap for reducing tariffs, marking a significant shift in U.S.-India trade relations [5][8] - India is expected to increase its imports of U.S. oil and gas by 30% by 2026 as part of the negotiations, while also discussing defense cooperation and technology transfers [10] - The U.S. is leveraging tariff reductions to encourage India to align more closely with American interests, particularly in reducing dependence on Chinese manufacturing [7][10] Group 3 - Despite the tariff on steel, India remains dependent on China for various imports, including electronic and pharmaceutical raw materials, indicating a complex trade relationship [8][12] - The overall trade deficit with China is significant, with steel being a focal point, while India's total trade volume with China reached 127.7 billion tons [10][12] - Future cooperation between India and China is anticipated, with potential agreements to enhance mutual trade and address previous conflicts [12]