1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The capital market has continued its high - volatility feature in the past week, with the focus shifting to the Middle East situation. The sharp rise in oil prices and freight rates has pushed up inflation expectations [5][9]. - Overseas, investors are closely watching the US - Iran war and the deterioration of the geopolitical situation. The macro - logic of the capital market has shifted from the divergence on AI to the unexpected inflation, weakening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the weak employment data has reignited stagflation concerns. The VIX index has risen significantly, and the rise in oil prices has driven up energy - chemical commodities. The rebound of the US dollar has suppressed non - US currencies, while the RMB has remained strong. The decline of gold and silver implies a rotation of funds and reflects investors' stronger expectation of stagflation than risk - aversion [5][9]. - Domestically, the misalignment of the Spring Festival and weak domestic demand have suppressed the economic recovery. The Two Sessions and practical economic goals have sent a stable signal, supporting the stability of the RMB exchange rate and making A - shares relatively resilient in the sharply declining Asia - Pacific stock markets [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - The capital market has high volatility, with the focus on the Middle East. Oil and freight price surges have pushed up inflation expectations. Overseas, the macro - logic has shifted to inflation, weakening Fed rate - cut expectations, and weak employment data has raised stagflation concerns. Domestically, the Spring Festival and weak demand have affected the economy, but the Two Sessions have provided stability [5][9]. - In the domestic market, the bond market has risen, the stock market has fallen, and the commodity market has shown a weak and differentiated performance. The growth - style stocks have performed worse than value - style stocks. The Wind Commodity Index has a weekly change of - 5.75%, with 7 out of 10 commodity sub - indexes rising and 3 falling. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals have led the decline, while the energy - chemical sector has been boosted by the Middle East situation [6][15]. Sector Express - The domestic bond market has risen, the stock market has fallen, and the commodity market has shown a weak and differentiated performance. The growth - style stocks have performed worse than value - style stocks. The Wind Commodity Index has a weekly change of - 5.75%, with 7 out of 10 commodity sub - indexes rising and 3 falling. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals have led the decline, while the energy - chemical sector has been boosted by the Middle East situation [6][15]. Capital Flows - The commodity futures market has seen a small overall inflow of funds, with a rotation among sectors. The energy, chemical, agricultural products, non - metallic building materials, and grain sectors have seen significant inflows, while the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors have seen significant outflows [17]. Variety Performance - Most domestic commodity futures have risen with large gains. The top - rising commodity futures are the container shipping index, crude oil, and fuel oil, while the top - falling ones are tin futures, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon [21]. Market Sentiment - From the perspective of volume - price cooperation, there are few commodity futures with obvious long - position increases and price rises, such as pure benzene, ethylene glycol, and styrene. There are many commodity futures with obvious long - position increases and price falls, such as polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and palladium [24]. Volatility Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index has increased significantly, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index have also risen. Most commodity futures sectors have seen an increase in volatility, except for the coking coal and steel ore sector, while the energy and agricultural products sectors have seen a notable increase in volatility [25]. Data Tracking - International commodities have shown mixed performance. The BDI has declined, the CRB has risen, soybeans and corn have closed up, oil prices have soared, and gold, silver, and copper have fallen sharply. The gold - oil ratio has dropped significantly from a high level [28]. - The asphalt production rate has rebounded from the bottom, real - estate sales have seasonally recovered but are still weak, freight rates have rebounded, and short - term capital interest rates are at a low level [45]. Macro Logic - The stock index has been weak and has fallen across the board. Valuations are under pressure, and the risk premium ERP has rebounded from a low level [31][32]. - Commodity price indexes have risen significantly, and inflation expectations have rebounded significantly [37]. - The US bond yield has rebounded overall, the term structure has steepened bearishly, the term spread has fluctuated narrowly, the real interest rate has first declined and then risen, and the gold price has risen and then fallen [52]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" has fluctuated, the Citi Economic Surprise Index has rebounded, and the 10Y - 3M US bond spread has rebounded after a significant decline [63]. Fed Rate - Cut Expectations - The probability of a Fed rate cut in June has decreased. The expected probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% is 56.9%, significantly higher than last week's 43.7%. The expected probability of a 25bp rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% has decreased from 45.2% to 37.4%. The market expects 1 - 2 rate cuts in 2026 [7][70]. Economic Data - The US non - farm payroll data in February 2026 was significantly worse than expected. The non - farm employment population decreased by 92,000, far exceeding the expected increase of 55,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the labor force participation rate dropped to 62% [75][83]. - China's inflation data in February 2026 exceeded expectations. The CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [78]. This Week's Focus - Monday (March 9): Japan's January trade balance, China's February CPI annual rate, Eurozone's March Sentix investor confidence index, US February New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. - Tuesday (March 10): Germany's January seasonally adjusted trade balance, US February NFIB small business confidence index, US February existing home sales annualized, China's February M2 money supply annual rate, and the US Department of Commerce will hold a round - table meeting for US robot manufacturers. - Wednesday (March 11): US API crude oil inventory for the week ending March 6, US February unadjusted CPI annual rate, US February seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending March 6, and OPEC will release its monthly oil market report. - Thursday (March 12): US 10 - year Treasury auction on March 11, US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7, US January trade balance, US EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending March 6, and the IEA will release its monthly oil market report. - Friday (March 13): UK's January three - month GDP monthly rate, Eurozone's January industrial output monthly rate, US January core PCE price index annual rate, US January personal expenditure monthly rate, US fourth - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate revision, US January durable goods orders monthly rate, US January JOLTs job openings, US March one - year inflation rate expectation preliminary value, and US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value [86].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of viewing the A-share market within a global context, highlighting three key factors that will create systemic opportunities for A-shares: external demand growth, increased global pricing power, and capital inflows from foreign exchange settlements [3][5]. Investment Themes - The core investment themes for A-shares in 2026 are identified as: 1. Commodities 2. Export chains related to electrical equipment 3. Recovery in consumer spending [4][7]. Global Market Dynamics - The article outlines three major variables affecting the global market: 1. The transition of AI from an industrial investment focus to a macroeconomic variable, with a shift in demand from computing power to physical resources like electricity and storage [5][6]. 2. The prolonged global interest rate cut cycle, influenced by structural changes brought about by AI, which is expected to create opportunities in financial assets and commodities [6]. 3. The industrial resonance in emerging markets, where resource-rich countries will require more electricity and physical assets to support their development [6]. Commodity Market Outlook - Commodities are highlighted as the most critical investment direction for the year, with a clear opportunity for resonance driven by AI's demand for physical resources and global monetary policy easing [7][8]. - The article suggests that the demand for resources will be driven by global economic recovery, with a shift in focus from China to a more global perspective on resource needs [13]. AI Industry Perspective - The AI industry is not expected to collapse or bubble but will experience valuation adjustments as the focus shifts from application layers to physical resource demands [11][12]. - The article argues that the current market dynamics reflect a transition where opportunities are moving towards sectors related to electricity and resources rather than just AI applications [11]. Consumer Spending Recovery - The article notes that consumer spending in China is entering a recovery phase, with signals indicating a potential bottoming out, driven by increased foreign exchange settlement volumes [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - For ordinary investors, the article advises focusing on professional funds or leading companies in the commodities sector, as they are likely to capture market opportunities without the risk of missing out [14][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in fossil energy consumption from fuel use to raw material use, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, where the average annual growth rate of raw material energy use reached 13% [2] - The production of chemical products such as ethylene, chemical pesticides, and primary plastics has shown annual growth rates of 14%, 13.9%, and 7% respectively, aligning with the growth trend of raw material energy use [2] - By 2025, fossil energy consumption is projected to increase by approximately 1%, reaching about 4.83 billion tons of standard coal, with raw material energy use expected to grow at a high rate of 11.6%, contributing significantly to the overall increase in fossil energy consumption [2] Group 2 - The consumption of fossil energy for fuel use is expected to decline for the first time, with a year-on-year decrease of approximately 1.5 million tons of standard coal, resulting in about 4.19 billion tons of standard coal, primarily due to a 0.7% decrease in thermal power generation [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, inflation, and energy price fluctuations. The A-share market's short - term adjustment is due to external geopolitical shocks and market structure differentiation. The mid - to long - term trend is mainly driven by domestic economic fundamentals and policy orientation, but the uncertainty of the Middle East situation cannot be ignored [19]. - Different commodity futures have different price trends and fundamentals. For example, sugar prices are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, while energy - related commodities are affected by the Middle East situation and supply - demand relationships [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Chemical and Agricultural Product Price Changes - **Chemical Products**: On March 9, 2026, compared with March 8, most chemical products' prices showed an upward trend. For example, crude oil rose by 13.327% to 753.40, and fuel oil rose by 13.268% to 4,499.00. However, natural rubber decreased by 0.297% to 16,785.00 [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Most agricultural products' prices also increased. For example, yellow soybean No.1 rose by 2.060% to 4,757.00, and palm oil rose by 2.560% to 9,454.00. But yellow corn decreased by 0.167% to 2,389.00 [4]. 2. Macroeconomic News - **Diplomatic and International Events**: At the press conference of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 8, Foreign Minister Wang Yi made statements on Sino - US relations, the Taiwan issue, the Iranian situation, and Sino - Japanese relations. Globally, there are many important events this week, including the closing of domestic political meetings, the release of economic data, and corporate earnings announcements [7]. - **AI Security and Energy Market**: The open - source AI agent OpenClaw has security risks. On March 9, the US oil futures contract soared by 22%. The situation in the Middle East has led to a chain reaction of production cuts in oil - producing countries, and the global energy supply is under pressure [8]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The sugar price is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, with short - term strength affected by energy prices. The supply side has both pressure and cost support, and the risk lies in the progress of the new Brazilian sugar - cane season and domestic policy changes [11]. - **Corn**: The corn price is in a high - level range - bound state. The supply in the Northeast production area is active, and the demand from deep - processing industries provides support. The upper space is limited, and caution is advised when trading [11]. - **Peanut**: The peanut price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply side has support from reduced imports, but the demand side has limited upward space. The price is close to the warehouse - receipt cost area [11]. - **Pig**: The national average pig price is weak. The supply is sufficient, and the futures market is in a state of seeking the bottom [11]. - **Egg**: The national egg spot price is stable and slightly strong. After the price drop, the inventory pressure has been released, and the spot price is rising. The futures market is recommended for short - term long - position trials [11][13]. - **Jujube**: The jujube price is stable in the short term, and the futures market is oscillating at the bottom. High - selling and low - buying strategies are recommended [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to be high - level range - bound. The supply side has support, but the demand side has uncertainties. Long positions can be considered at support levels [13]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Caustic Soda**: The domestic caustic soda market has high supply and inventory. Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the export expectation has improved, and the price has rebounded. Short - term rebound thinking is recommended [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke is increasing, and the demand is expected to increase as steel mills resume production. The price is running strongly at a low level due to the coal substitution effect [12]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The supply of double - offset paper has increased, and the demand has limited improvement. The market is in a weak balance, and a range - bound trading strategy is recommended [12]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea supply is sufficient, and the demand has both support and suppression factors. Attention should be paid to the release of stored goods and demand follow - up [14]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver are oscillating at a high level. The escalation of the Middle East conflict and weak US non - farm data have promoted price increases. Attention should be paid to risks [14]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum are affected by the Middle East situation and inventory pressure. The impact on aluminum may be greater than that on copper [14]. - **Alumina**: The domestic alumina market has a supply - surplus situation, and the price is expected to remain low [14]. Steel and Iron Alloys - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: After the Lantern Festival, the inventory of steel products is accumulating. The terminal demand recovery is slow, but the steel price is expected to be slightly strong in the short term due to cost support [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferroalloys has decreased, and the demand has increased. The price has a low - level support, and a callback - buying strategy is recommended, but avoid chasing high prices [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price is oscillating. The supply pressure is continuous, but the demand provides support. Long positions can be considered at the lower edge of the oscillation range, but beware of supply increases [15]. Option Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On March 6, A - share indexes rose slightly, and most industry sectors closed up. The stock index futures and options markets showed different trends, and investors can pay attention to arbitrage opportunities and volatility trading [15][18]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market adjustment is affected by external and internal factors. A volatile - market operation strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to sectors with improved supply - demand patterns and low - valued assets [19].

Group 1: A-Share Market Focus - The expected price-driven market trend will continue in March, with specific attention on Juhua Co., Ltd. and Quartz Co., Ltd. [9][18] - The 2026 economic goals set a GDP growth target of 4.5%-5.0%, with a focus on balancing expectations and reality [12][13] - The government emphasizes stable fiscal policies and a moderately loose monetary policy to support consumption and investment [12][13] Group 2: Korean Market Focus - The Bank of Korea is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% for a longer period, reflecting a cautious approach to economic growth [29][36] - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are highlighted as key players in the semiconductor market, benefiting from strong demand and pricing power [42][39] - The HBM supply is expected to remain tight, driven by strong demand from GPU and ASIC clients [38][39] Group 3: Malaysian Market Focus - Malaysia's GDP growth is projected to be strong, with a 2025 forecast of 6.3% growth, marking the best performance since Q4 2022 [52][51] - 99 Speedmart and IHH are identified as key stocks, with 99 Speedmart benefiting from government consumption subsidies and IHH capitalizing on the growing medical tourism sector [59][60] - The overall inflation in Malaysia is expected to remain moderate, allowing the central bank to maintain current policy rates [52][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Continue to be optimistic about short - to medium - term credit and focus on opportunities in industrial bond exploration. In March 2026, it is difficult for bond market interest rates to break through and decline, and the interest rate trading space is limited. Attention is expected to focus on short - to medium - term coupon - bearing bonds with stronger certainty [5][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly View - **Investment Strategy**: - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In February, the fundamentals across the country changed little, with few舆情 disturbances but some undercurrents in certain areas. The mainstream market participation range was relatively stable, and there was no obvious contraction in trading. It is recommended to maintain the configuration of about 3 - year bonds [5][8]. - **Industrial Bonds**: In February, commodity prices rose significantly, especially in the chemical sector, and the hype in the traditional energy markets such as coal increased at the end of the month. In bond investment, the non - ferrous sector has consistently low valuations, and Shandong Hongqiao in the aluminum sector is one of the few remaining medium - valuation entities. The market's acceptance of high - quality private enterprises has increased. High - coupon bonds in the chemical sector are mainly concentrated in private enterprises, and private large - scale refining may benefit. The traditional energy markets such as coal have attracted more attention, but previous exploration is relatively sufficient, and it is not recommended to further expand the scope of sinking for medium - to high - valuation entities. Some new perpetual bonds with a spread of over 30bp and relatively strong qualifications are suitable for institutions with stable liability ends [5][8]. 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults, overdue payments, downgrades of corporate or bond ratings, or overseas rating downgrades from March 2, 2026, to March 8, 2026. However, there were significant negative events involving several companies, including China Fortune Land Development Co., Ltd., Shanghai Shimao Co., Ltd., and others, mainly related to debt repayment issues, regulatory warnings, and information disclosure violations [10][11][12]. 3.2.2 Primary Issuance - The primary issuance rhythm of credit bonds last week returned to the pre - holiday average level, with a net inflow of 9.72 billion yuan. From March 2 to March 8, 2026, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 270.6 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 173.4 billion yuan. The financing cost of each rating increased significantly compared to the previous week, with the average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ grades rising by 27bp and 45bp respectively, slightly higher than the pre - holiday level. No bonds were cancelled or postponed for issuance last week [13][14]. 3.2.3 Secondary Trading - The valuations of credit bonds of all ratings and tenors decreased by 3bp last week. The risk - free interest rate showed a bullish steepening trend, with the short - end credit spreads widening passively and the long - end narrowing slightly. The 3Y - 1Y and 5Y - 1Y term spreads of each rating were basically flat, except for the 5Y - 1Y spread of the AA+/AA grades, which narrowed by 1bp. The AA - AAA grade spread was flat, except for the 5Y spread, which narrowed by 1bp. The average credit spreads of urban investment bonds in each province widened by 1bp, and the median spreads of some medium - to high - valuation provinces widened by 3bp. The credit spreads of industrial bonds in each industry also generally widened by 1bp, except for the real estate industry, where the spread widened by 16bp. The weekly turnover rate increased by 0.89pct to 1.86%. The issuers of credit bonds with a discount of over 10% in trading last week were Country Garden and Vanke. Among individual entities, the urban investment bonds with the largest changes in spreads were scattered, and among the industrial bonds, the top five entities with the largest spread - widening were mainly real estate enterprises, including Rongqiao, Greenland, CIFI, and Xinyuan [16][21][24][25][27].

Supply and Demand - Construction starts show a mixed seasonal performance, with overall activity remaining acceptable[2] - Industrial production remains resilient, with overall industrial operating rates at historical highs for the lunar period[2] - Construction demand is recovering faster than in 2025, although appliance sales remain weak compared to the same period[3] Prices - International commodity prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with oil prices increasing sharply[4] - Domestic industrial product prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, with the South China Industrial Index showing robust performance[4] - Agricultural product prices, including pork, have seen a decline recently[65] Real Estate - New housing transactions have shown a year-on-year increase, with average transaction area in 30 major cities down 48.6% compared to the previous period, but up 18% and 22% compared to 2024 and 2025 respectively[5] - Second-hand housing prices have declined, with transaction volumes in major cities showing mixed results compared to 2025[71] Exports - AI product exports from South Korea and Vietnam continue to show strong growth, with expectations for China's AI exports to remain robust[6] - China's export market may benefit from rising energy prices, leveraging cost advantages in coal and new energy sectors[6] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with the R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.41% as of March 6[78] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 19,748 million yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[81] Risk Warning - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy measures[85]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative finance or engineering[1][2][3] - The content primarily focuses on ESG market trends, carbon reduction goals, and international climate policies, without discussing any quantitative models or factor construction methodologies[10][12][13] - No quantitative backtesting results, formulas, or performance metrics for models or factors are provided in the report[18][19][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical factors face significant uncertainties, and most varieties are expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. For the medium - to - long - term, strategies can be formulated according to the characteristics of each variety, such as constructing long positions in combination with the premium advantage of stock index futures [1]. - The escalation of the Middle East situation has a wide - ranging impact on the market, affecting the risk appetite, supply, and cost of various commodities, and leading to different trends in different varieties [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The deterioration of the Middle East situation and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories have led to a weak operation of copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Although the Middle East situation has suppressed market risk appetite, the continuous increase in the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East and the rise in energy prices have increased costs, so aluminum prices are expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East [1]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of domestic alumina has declined slightly, but the inventory has further increased, and the fundamentals are still weak. The short - term price will oscillate [1]. - **Zinc**: The concerns about zinc ore supply due to the Middle East situation can support zinc prices, but the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, and zinc prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Nickel**: The tightening concerns of the RKAB quota of Indonesian nickel ore have resurfaced, the quota approval is slow, the nickel ore premium remains high, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may affect the MHP raw material supply. Nickel prices may oscillate at a high level and are still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to go long on dips and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After the festival, raw material prices have risen, steel mills' production in March has increased significantly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, and there is still raw material support. Stainless steel futures will oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to the demand acceptance. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: Inflation risks have increased, putting short - term pressure on the non - ferrous sector. Tin will oscillate with high volatility in the short term. Investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection [1]. 3.2 Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The continuous rise in energy prices has increased inflation risks and suppressed interest - rate cut expectations. However, the poor February non - farm payrolls in the United States have increased the risk of economic stagflation, and combined with the Middle East geopolitical game and private credit risks in the United States, precious metal prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Platinum and Lithium**: The continuous rise in energy prices has increased inflation risks and suppressed interest - rate cut expectations. The poor February non - farm payrolls in the United States have increased the risk of economic stagflation, and the Middle East geopolitical uncertainty remains high. Platinum and lithium prices may oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon and Related Products - **Industrial Silicon**: There is production increase in the northwest and production decrease in the southwest. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December decreased by 88 [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The inventory is at a low level, the demand expectation is weak, and the price oscillates [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The energy storage demand is strong, there is battery export rush, and there are disturbances at the mine end. It is bullish [1]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Rebar**: The inventory is at a relatively high historical level, and the de - stocking pressure needs to be tested in the future. The price oscillates [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: After taking profits on the long - basis positions, wait for the next entry opportunity [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply and demand continue to be weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive for the price. It is difficult for iron ore to have a unilateral downward market under geopolitical conflicts [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term supply and demand are both weak, the expectation of supply reduction has increased, and at the same time, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, energy prices have strengthened, and there is cost support [1]. - **Glass**: The short - term supply and demand are both weak, the expectation of supply reduction has increased, and at the same time, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, energy prices have strengthened, and there is cost support [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It mainly follows glass. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and in the medium term, the supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Geopolitical conflicts continue to ferment, and the first round of spot price cuts for coking coal and coke has begun. However, the previous low has already factored in the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, so there is not much market trading. The digital targets given by the domestic two sessions are basically in line with expectations. As energy and chemical products rise and other assets perform poorly, the market is moving towards the stagflation logic. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the situation. Energy - related varieties should avoid speculative short positions, and coking coal and coke should be mainly on the sidelines. The industry can take advantage of the rebound opportunity to establish spot - futures positive hedging positions in the 05 contract [1]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The sharp rise in crude oil will drive up the price of palm oil through the biodiesel demand. However, the current fundamental pressure of palm oil is large, with high inventory in Malaysia, the production season, and the consumption off - season. Be vigilant against the decline after the stagnation of crude oil [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The sharp rise in crude oil will drive up the price of soybean oil through the biodiesel demand. However, after the end of the Southeast Asian Ramadan, the incremental export of domestic soybean oil may decline rhythmically, and the large arrival of soybeans in April will also bring pressure. Be vigilant against the decline after the stagnation of crude oil [1]. - **Cotton**: Internationally, the USDA expects that the global cotton inventory will tighten in the 2026/27 season due to production cuts in major producing countries and increased consumption. China's import demand is expected to increase by 25%, and the export of US cotton will slightly increase but face competition from Brazil. Recently, the export sales of US cotton have reached a new high for the year, and Trump's visit to China may further expand the import of US agricultural products, which is beneficial to the export of US cotton. Domestically, the cotton inventory is high, the willingness of textile enterprises to replenish inventory is weak, the supply is abundant, the demand is stable and resilient, and the import substitution pressure brought by the internal - external price difference exists. The policy is stable, and the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is the core variable. The domestic cotton price will gradually rise with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the global sugar market has a clear pattern of structural surplus in the 2025/26 season. India has a significant increase in production, Brazil's production remains high, and Thailand's slight production cut has limited impact. The overall supply of major producing countries is abundant. With the expectation of the new sugar - crushing season in Brazil, the supply pressure in the global sugar market continues to increase. Domestically, the supply of domestic sugar is in a loose pattern in the 2025/26 season. The production of cane sugar has entered the peak of concentrated crushing, and the domestic sugar production has increased year - on - year. The arrival of imported sugar is stable, and the industrial inventory is high. The total domestic supply is abundant, and the market has changed from a tight balance to a slight surplus. Overall, it is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar price will have a ceiling and a floor and will not fluctuate significantly, and the pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices will continue. The short - term inventory replenishment demand and geopolitical risks support the disk to oscillate strongly, but the downstream profit is poor, and it is expected to increase the use of other substitutes. In addition, pay attention to policy risks, such as the release of policy grains such as aged rice and changes in import policy orientation [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The continuous Middle East conflict has raised concerns about the increase in shipping costs and planting costs. The war risk premium supports the US soybean and soybean meal disks. In the short term, pay attention to the international situation. The sustainability of the war is difficult to estimate, and be cautious in unilateral operations [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The weak fundamentals of paper pulp futures are difficult to change in the short term. The whole industry chain is accumulating inventory, and the price increase letters of domestic finished paper are difficult to implement. Affected by the macro - sentiment of commodities, paper pulp futures have increased in price with reduced positions. Pay attention to the pressure level of 5350 - 5450 [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has increased, the log arrival volume in February has decreased, and the expectation of an increase in the foreign quotation is relatively clear, so the disk has an upward driving force. At the same time, the foreign quotation has increased due to the impact of shipping costs. Pay attention to the domestic acceptance [1]. - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized, supported by demand. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the expectation of crude oil has strengthened significantly. The Northeast Asian refineries are extremely dependent on crude oil supply from the Middle East. Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Northeast Asian refineries are facing a shortage of crude oil supply and have to reduce their production [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The escalation of the Middle East situation, the obstruction of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the increase in market risk appetite have all affected fuel oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian asphalt imports on the domestic market is not large, but the price transmission of crude oil on the cost side affects asphalt, which is relatively weak among energy varieties [1]. - **BD and BR Rubber**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation has a great impact on the raw material imports in Northeast Asia. Refineries have chosen to stop production for maintenance and suspend external sales due to the lack of raw materials. The prices of BD and BR have risen significantly and still have room to rise. The cost of butadiene has strong support at the bottom, the price of Japanese light naphtha is still rising, and the overseas cracking device capacity is being cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene devices has remained in a loss state, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback is gradually being realized. In terms of fundamentals, the inventory of BD/BR may turn to a de - stocking expectation under the influence of upstream production suspension [1]. - **PX**: The Asian PX market's speculative sentiment has recovered, but the physical supply is tight, and the physical PX has begun to be in short supply. Due to the extreme market concerns, downstream replenishment has been rapid, and the polyester's operating load is also lower than expected [1]. - **Naphtha and Ethylene Glycol**: The Middle East situation is tense, and the market is in chaos. Asian naphtha cracking devices have undergone large - scale production cuts and shutdowns. South Korea, as the largest naphtha cracking center in Asia, has synchronously launched production - cut plans, and the overall operating rate has dropped sharply. Domestic refineries have also taken actions to reduce production and load to deal with the possible reduction of raw materials. Domestic ethylene glycol devices have risen sharply due to the reduction of raw materials [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The overseas pure benzene market has risen driven by the soaring energy prices, and multiple disturbances on the supply side are also affecting the price. The Middle East geopolitical conflict continues to ferment, providing strong support for oil prices. The middle and lower reaches are buying goods crazily, the market is cautious in selling, and the trading atmosphere is crazy. The overseas pure benzene devices have concentrated production cuts and declared force majeure. The overseas styrene market has shown a strong upward pattern under multiple disturbances on the supply side. The downstream and traders of styrene are replenishing goods crazily, resulting in an extremely tight supply of styrene spot. Any unexpected interruption may cause the price to soar further [1]. - **Methanol**: Iran's imports have a significant impact. The mutual attacks on energy facilities between the US and Iran have led to the shutdown of some devices, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has prevented Iranian methanol from being transported out. However, the current domestic production is at a high level, and the inventory is at the highest level in the same period of history [1]. - **PE**: The geopolitical situation has heated up, crude oil has risen, and the fundamentals are weak [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the clearance of PVC production capacity, and the future expectation is optimistic. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, freight has risen, and the ethylene - based method is facing the problem of raw material shortage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in March is flat, and the near - month purchase is still relatively tight. The premium of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has recovered, and the PG trend is strong. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, and it is expected that the basis will continue to repair and expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short - term demand for LPG is bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the disk. The port is continuously de - stocking, but the domestic civil gas is relatively abundant, resulting in a divergence in the internal and external market trends and a deviation between FEI and PG [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various industries, including agriculture, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It is mainly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, which has a significant impact on the supply and price of commodities. The market sentiment is complex, with some products showing upward trends due to supply disruptions, while others are affected by factors such as demand and cost [7][9][11]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: After a sharp drop last week, the market showed signs of stabilization. It is expected that the market will likely stabilize this week. The recommended trading strategies are to go long on dips, conduct IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads for options [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The supply - demand contraction led to the official manufacturing PMI in February being weaker than expected. Overseas, the Middle East geopolitical situation has an impact on the bond market. It is recommended to take profit on the long T - contract positions and short the TS contract on rallies [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The short - term sharp rise in soybean meal mainly reflects macro - influencing factors. It is recommended to be cautious due to the upcoming monthly supply - demand report. The recommended trading strategies are high - volatility for the unilateral market, narrowing the MRM09 spread for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [26][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be strong in the short term with a bottom - oscillating long - term trend. The recommended trading strategies are to go long on the international and Zhengzhou sugar markets, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy call options [30][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict is the focus. The oils are likely to rise easily and fall hard in the short term. The recommended trading strategies are to go long on the unilateral market, consider selling p59 and y59 spreads on rallies for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [33][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price in the production area is strong, and the futures price is oscillating strongly. The recommended trading strategies are to take a long - on - dips approach for the 05 - contract corn, widen the 05 - contract corn - starch spread, and wait and see for options [37][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, wait and see for arbitrage, and use a short - straddle strategy for options [41][43]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The recommended trading strategies are to go long on dips for the 05 - contract peanuts, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option [44][45]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season. It is recommended to short the June contract on rallies, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [48][49]. - **Apples**: The apple inventory is decreasing, and the price is firm. It is recommended to wait and see for the 5 - contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and is oscillating strongly. The recommended trading strategies are to go long on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [54][55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The geopolitical influence is intensifying, and the steel price is oscillating. The recommended trading strategies are to maintain an oscillating - strong trend for the unilateral market, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short coil - screw spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [58][59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is volatile. It is recommended to go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [60][62]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is disturbed, and the price is oscillating. The recommended trading strategies are to expect an oscillating trend for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [63][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term driving force is strong, but the risk - reward ratio is decreasing. It is recommended to take partial profit on the long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the prices are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [69][72]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices are fluctuating widely. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral market, wait for the low - price spread between platinum and palladium to go long for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [72][75]. - **Copper**: The concern about stagflation is intensifying, and the copper price is受挫 in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [76][77]. - **Alumina**: The shipping cost increase affects the ore end. The price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance above for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [79][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict affects the supply. It is recommended to hold long positions [81][82]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the aluminum price and is strong. It is recommended to follow the aluminum price for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [84][85]. - **Zinc**: Be vigilant about the impact of capital on the zinc price. It is recommended to wait and see and go long on dips for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [87][88]. - **Lead**: It is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell on rallies for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [91][92]. - **Nickel**: The macro factors dominate the market. It is recommended to wait for the macro - sentiment to stabilize and then go long, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [95][96]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to wait for the macro - sentiment to stabilize and then go long, wait and see for arbitrage [97][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to go long on dips and short after manufacturers' hedging, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [100][101]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is falling, and it is weak in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious about the unilateral market, pay attention to the cash - and - carry opportunity for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [102][104]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is oscillating at a high level under macro - influence. It is recommended to go long after the price stabilizes on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [106]. - **Tin**: The long - term resumption of production in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the price may oscillate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the macro - sentiment change for the unilateral market, wait and see for options [109][110]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The market expects the conflict to be long - term, and shipping companies are adjusting Middle - East routes. It is recommended to be strong in the short term, pay attention to the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz and shipping companies' route adjustments, and wait and see for arbitrage [111][113]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The geopolitical conflict disturbs the supply chain. The short - term capacity allocation may limit the rent increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the passage of key straits [113][116]. - **Carbon Emissions**: Domestic trading is sporadic, and the EU carbon price stops falling and rises slightly. In the short term, the domestic carbon price may be supported, but the increase is limited. The EU carbon price may oscillate but is difficult to rise [117][121]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US oil has the largest weekly increase in history. It is recommended to be bullish on the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and take profit on out - of - the - money call options [123][124]. - **Asphalt**: The cost fluctuates sharply under the geopolitical conflict. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BU2606 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [128][129]. - **Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical risk is intensifying. It is recommended to hold long positions in the FU2605 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [131][133]. - **LPG**: It is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to be oscillating strongly for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [134][135]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk persists, and the price rises with the shutdown in Qatar. It is recommended to buy the TTF fourth - quarter contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [136][138]. - **PX & PTA**: PX reduces production preventively. It is recommended to hold long positions, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage, and wait and see for options [139][141]. - **BZ & EB**: Refineries reduce production preventively, affecting the supply of aromatic products. It is recommended to hold long positions, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage, and wait and see for options [143][144]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Iranian plants stop production, and Middle - East imports are affected. It is recommended to hold long positions, conduct 5 - 9 cash - and - carry arbitrage, and wait and see for options [145][147]. - **Short - Fiber**: It follows the cost and strengthens. It is recommended to hold long positions, reduce the processing fee on rallies for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [148][150]. - **Bottle Chips**: The factory load is gradually recovering. It is recommended to hold long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [151][152]. - **Propylene**: The main raw material price rises. It is recommended to hold long positions, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage, and wait and see for options [154][155]. - **Plastic PP**: LL production decreases month - on - month and slows year - on - year. It is recommended to hold long positions in the L and PP 2605 contracts, hold short positions in the SPC L2605&PP2605 spread, and wait and see for options [156][158]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is strong. It is recommended to be oscillating strongly for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [159][160]. - **PVC**: It follows the price increase firmly. It is recommended to go long at low prices and not chase the rise, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [162][163]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend for the unilateral market, take profit on the short - glass - long - soda - ash spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [164][167]. - **Glass**: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend for the unilateral market, take profit on the short - glass - long - soda - ash spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [168][171]. - **Methanol**: It continues to rise. It is recommended to operate carefully due to the volatile market [172]. - **Urea**: It mainly follows the rise. It is recommended to conduct range trading for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [175][176]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand contradiction is slightly relieved. It is recommended to go short on rallies for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the OP2604 - C - 4250 option [178][179]. - **Logs**: The overseas price rises, and the spot price is stable and strong. It is recommended to go long on dips for the unilateral market, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [179][181]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The tire inventory is being reduced after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU and NR 05 contracts, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [182][185]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The tire inventory is being reduced, and the warehouse receipts are increasing. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BR 05 contract, hold the BR2605 - RU2605 spread, and wait and see for options [187][190].