Group 1 - Schroders Investment remains optimistic about the stock market outlook, but is cautious about the risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. due to the lagging effects of tariffs on the real economy [1] - The primary constraint on the stock market is the rising debt levels resulting from increased government spending, which affects the bond market's capacity [1] - Despite rising debt levels, Schroders still views bonds as a favorable source of returns rather than merely a diversification tool, with gold being the preferred option for portfolio diversification [1][3] Group 2 - Recent expansionary fiscal policies have supported nominal economic growth and corporate earnings, while populist policies may have a positive impact on the stock market [2] - The greatest threat to the economic outlook is the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, with the effective tariff rate expected to rise to 12%, the highest level since World War II [2] - The market's reaction to new tariff threats has been muted, indicating that investors may be underestimating the potential for significant tariff increases by the Trump administration [2] Group 3 - The Trump administration continues to monitor the bond market, recognizing the importance of maintaining financial market stability, with inflation expectations remaining under control [3] - A notable steepening of the yield curve has been observed, with long-term bond yields rising faster than short-term yields, reflecting market concerns about fiscal spending [3] - The credibility of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the bond market, and the succession plan for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be a focal point for investors [3] Group 4 - The dollar maintains unmatched liquidity in the global financial system, prompting many institutions to reassess their dollar allocation strategies [4] - Despite the high exposure to U.S. assets, there is a growing recognition of the need for diversification in investment portfolios [4] - Investors should focus on medium-term trends rather than overreacting to daily news, as the political and economic consensus has shifted, affecting the correlation between different asset classes [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the continuous improvement in market risk appetite, along with the optimization of capital market systems, is expected to support the performance of Chinese equities [1][2]. Group 1: Market Risk Appetite and Asset Allocation - Recent improvements in market risk appetite have led to a significant outperformance of risk assets over safe-haven assets, with equities outperforming commodities and bonds [2]. - The report suggests a tactical overweight in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to optimistic economic outlooks, stable market liquidity, and improving risk appetite [2][3]. - The tactical allocation for U.S. and Japanese stocks has been adjusted to overweight, while a cautious stance is taken towards government bonds due to multiple pressures [2][6]. Group 2: Chinese Market Dynamics - Factors such as breakthroughs in technology, the ongoing theme of emerging industries, stable total policy expectations, and marginal fiscal support for infrastructure are expected to enhance market risk appetite and support Chinese equities [3]. - The report emphasizes that Chinese equity assets currently possess a high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [3]. Group 3: U.S. and Japanese Market Insights - The improvement in overseas risk appetite, particularly following the U.S.-Japan tariff agreement, has led to an upgraded tactical allocation for U.S. stocks to overweight, as the market adjusts its expectations regarding U.S. trade policies [4]. - Japanese stocks have been upgraded to a standard allocation as concerns over export trade have diminished, and the economic outlook remains positive despite some inflationary pressures [5]. Group 4: Government Bonds Outlook - The report indicates a downgrade in the tactical allocation for government bonds to underweight due to pressures from market risk appetite improvements, redemption pressures, and price volatility [6]. - The shift of funds from bonds to equities is noted, as investors seek better returns in a favorable equity performance environment [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices and U.S. Treasury indices, highlighting the performance of various markets and the impact of currency fluctuations on investment opportunities. Group 1: Market Performance - The global stock market experienced an overall increase this week, with the Asia-Pacific region leading the gains [4][5]. - The A-share market has risen for five consecutive weeks, with the CSI All Share Index increasing by over 2% this week [5]. - The Hong Kong stock market has also seen a rise of over 2% for two consecutive weeks [5]. - The U.S. and European markets also showed overall increases [6]. - The global stock market index has returned to a 3.0 star rating [7]. Group 2: Currency Impact - Renminbi-denominated assets have performed well globally this year, partly due to the appreciation of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar, which has risen by 3% since April [8][9]. - Historical trends indicate that bull markets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks often coincide with periods of renminbi appreciation, such as the 2020-2021 bull market [10][16]. - The current dollar interest rate cut cycle, which began in September 2024, has led to a depreciation of the dollar, benefiting A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [18]. - Currency fluctuations are not a long-term influencing factor but can create short-term investment opportunities [19][21]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article mentions the availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets, which total over a trillion dollars, but notes the limited options for such funds in mainland China [29]. - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track global stock market performance [31]. - There are current purchase limits for mainland investors in overseas markets, with a maximum daily purchase of 350 yuan [33].

Core Viewpoint - The European stock market has priced in too much optimism, and Bank of America predicts a potential decline of about 10% for the Stoxx 600 index, with cyclical stocks possibly dropping around 15% compared to defensive stocks [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Despite a previous period of optimism, the relative performance of European stocks against the MSCI global index has largely reversed since mid-March [2][3]. - From December 2024 to March 2025, the Stoxx 600 index outperformed the MSCI global index by nearly 15% due to a shift in market sentiment and expectations regarding fiscal stimulus in Germany [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The market had overly high expectations for European economic recovery in March, which did not materialize as anticipated, leading to a correction in stock prices [4]. - The nominal effective exchange rate of the euro has increased by approximately 7.5% since February, negatively impacting the earnings of export-oriented European companies and lowering stock valuations by 8-9% [5]. - The resurgence of growth stocks in the U.S. has diminished the attractiveness of European value stocks, which have historically outperformed growth stocks in Europe [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Bank of America has downgraded its rating on European stocks from "overweight" to "neutral," citing that the current valuations have already factored in too many positive developments, limiting the potential for further gains [7]. - The forecast for the eurozone indicates nearly zero growth by the second half of 2025, which poses systemic risks to global growth, particularly affecting export-driven economies like Europe [7].

Market Overview - The overall market experienced a slight decline, closing at 4.7 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks like the CSI 300 fell, while small-cap stocks saw minor gains [2] - Value style stocks showed relative resilience against the downturn [3] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector has remained strong over several trading days [4] - Hong Kong's pharmaceutical stocks have outperformed A-share pharmaceutical indices by nearly 50% this year [5] - After a recent rise, Hong Kong pharmaceutical stocks have reached a high valuation [6] - A-share pharmaceutical stocks have begun to recover recently [7] - Despite a recent overall decline, Hong Kong stocks managed to reduce their losses by the end of the trading day [8][9] Bond Market Insights - The stock market has been strong this year, while bonds have been relatively weak [13] - Different types of bond funds exhibit significant performance variations [13] - Short-term pure bond funds, such as 90-day combinations, show minimal volatility with long-term returns slightly higher than money market funds [16] - Long-term pure bond funds, like 7-10 year government bonds, have greater volatility [17][20] - "Fixed income plus" funds, which include a mix of bonds and stocks, have performed well this year [26] Investment Strategies - The performance of long-term pure bond funds has declined recently, while "fixed income plus" strategies have thrived [24][26] - The shift in performance is attributed to lower interest rates affecting long-term bonds, which previously benefited from higher yields [28][32] - The current low-interest environment has led to increased investment in income-generating assets, including dividend and cash flow index funds [36] - The attractiveness of long-term pure bonds is closely tied to the yield of 10-year government bonds, with yields below 2% being less appealing [40][42] Valuation Metrics - Various indices and their valuation metrics are provided, including P/E ratios, dividend yields, and ROE percentages for different sectors [11][55] - The valuation data indicates a range of investment opportunities across sectors, with some indices showing high P/E ratios and others indicating potential undervaluation [55]

Report Information - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Global Asset Market Performance and Related Trading Data Key Points of Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 23, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc., were 4.383%, 4.634%, 3.299% respectively, with various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 23, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 3.850%, 3.876%, 1.839% respectively, with different changes over different time - spans [3] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On July 23, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.520, with a latest change of - 0.81%, and different changes in other time periods [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On July 23, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6358.910, with a latest change of 0.78%, and different changes in weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. Other indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, etc., also had their respective performances [3] Credit Bond Indices - The US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc., had different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods [3][4] Key Points of Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 3582.30, 4119.77, 2801.20 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and other indices were 13.53, 11.44, etc., with corresponding环比changes [5] Risk Premium - The risk premium of the S&P 500 was - 0.68, with a环比change of - 0.07, and the German DAX had its own values [5] Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, etc., were - 1079.62, - 851.71, etc., with different 5 - day average values [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc., were 18646.00, 4703.31, etc., with corresponding环比changes [5] Main Contract Basis - The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 10.57, 1.60, - 76.76 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5] Key Points of Treasury Futures Trading Data Treasury Futures - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.520, 105.790, 108.600, 105.875 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [6] Funding Rates - The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4268%, 1.5017%, 1.5510% respectively, with corresponding daily changes in basis points [6]

Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 22, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.346, 4.569, 3.263 respectively. The latest changes were - 0.033, - 0.033, - 0.029; weekly changes were - 0.137, - 0.055, - 0.142; monthly changes were 0.050, 0.097, 0.013; and annual changes were 0.162, 0.461, 0.112 [3]. - For Asian and South American economies like Japan, Brazil, and China, on July 22, 2025, yields were 3.834, 6.558, 1.691. The latest changes were - 0.028, - 0.005, 0.014; weekly changes were - 0.108, - 0.043, 0.033; monthly changes were 0.008, 0.050, 0.043; and annual changes were - 0.618, 0.162, - 0.569 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 22, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany were 3.880, 3.838, 1.808. The latest changes were - 0.030, - 0.027, - 0.013; weekly changes were - 0.020, 0.008, - 0.073; monthly changes were not available for the US, - 0.031, - 0.040; and annual changes were - 0.740, - 0.230, - 1.008 [3]. US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On July 22, 2025, the exchange rates against the Brazilian real, South African rand, South Korean won were 5.565, 17.558, 1380.900. The latest changes were - 0.04%, - 0.36%, - 0.13%; weekly changes were 0.15%, - 2.06%, - 0.48%; monthly changes were 0.98%, - 1.15%, 1.59%; and annual changes were 2.50%, - 2.21%, 0.40% [3]. RMB Exchange Rates - On July 22, 2025, the on - shore RMB, offshore RMB, and mid - price were 7.169, 7.171, 7.146. The latest changes were - 0.01%, 0.00%, - 0.09%; weekly changes were - 0.19%, - 0.19%, - 0.05%; and monthly changes were - 1.12%, - 1.39%, 0.20% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - On July 22, 2025, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and French CAC were 6309.620, 44502.440, 20892.690. The latest changes were 0.06%, 0.40%, - 0.39%; weekly changes were 1.05%, 1.09%, 1.04%; monthly changes were 12.36%, 11.25%, 13.56% [3]. - For Asian and other emerging - market indices like the Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, and Shanghai Composite Index, on July 22, 2025, they were 39774.920, 25130.030, 3581.861. The latest changes were 0.24%, 2.20%, 2.19%; weekly changes were 0.54%, 3.94%, 4.72%; and monthly changes were - 3.44%, 37.37%, 20.55% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - The latest changes of emerging - market investment - grade, high - yield, and US investment - grade credit bond indices were 0.17%, 0.11%, 0.09%. The weekly changes were 0.94%, 0.45%, 0.51%; monthly changes were 0.38%, 0.68%, 1.01%; and annual changes were 4.87%, 6.08%, 9.58% [4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - On July 22, 2025, the closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 3581.86, 4118.96, 2792.18. The percentage changes were 0.62%, 0.82%, 0.72% [5]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.53, 11.44, 30.40. The环比 changes were 0.08, 0.03, 0.28 [5]. Risk Premium - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.61, 2.27. The环比 changes were 0.03, 0.07 [5]. Fund Flows - The latest values of A - shares, the main board, and the SME board were - 645.25, - 337.32, not available. The 5 - day average values were - 233.14, - 142.91, not available [5]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 18930.38, 4508.74, 1293.95. The环比 changes were 1930.58, 729.35, 325.56 [5]. Main Contract Basis - The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 9.16, 4.62, - 84.01. The basis percentages were - 0.22%, 0.17%, - 1.35% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - On July 22, 2025, the closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.635, 105.885, 108.695, 105.970. The percentage changes were - 0.03%, - 0.03%, - 0.06%, - 0.02% [6]. - The money market rates of R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3599%, 1.4846%, 1.5490%. The daily changes were - 14.00 BP, - 2.00 BP, 0.00 BP [6]

Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the global asset market performance on July 21, 2025, including government bond yields, currency exchange rates, stock indices, and credit bond indices [3]. Global Asset Market Performance Government Bond Yields - **10 - year Government Bond Yields**: Yields and their changes over different time - frames (latest, one - week, one - month, one - year) are presented for major economies such as the US, UK, France, Germany, etc. For example, the US 10 - year government bond yield on July 21, 2025, was 4.379%, with a latest change of - 0.039 [3]. - **2 - year Government Bond Yields**: Similar data for 2 - year government bonds are provided for several economies. For instance, the US 2 - year government bond yield was 3.910% on July 21, 2025, with a latest change of 0.030 [3]. Currency Exchange Rates - **USD against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: Exchange rates and their percentage changes are shown for the US dollar against currencies like the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, South African rand, etc. For example, the exchange rate of USD to Brazilian real on July 21, 2025, was 5.567, with a latest change of - 0.22% [3]. - **Renminbi**: Data on on - shore and off - shore RMB, RMB mid - price, and 12 - month NDF are presented, along with their percentage changes [3]. Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: Closing prices and percentage changes over different time - periods are provided for indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, etc. For example, the S&P 500 closed at 6305.600 on July 21, 2025, with a latest change of 0.14% [3]. - **Other Stock Indices**: Data for indices like the Russian index, Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, etc. are also included. For instance, the Hang Seng Index closed at 24994.140 on July 21, 2025, with a latest change of 0.68% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - Percentage changes over different time - frames (latest, one - week, one - month, one - year) are presented for different types of credit bond indices, including US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, and emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices [3][4]. Futures Trading Data Stock Index Futures - **Index Performance**: Closing prices, percentage changes, valuations (PE(TTM)), risk premiums, fund flows, trading volumes, and basis spreads are provided for A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500. For example, the CSI 300 closed at 4085.61 with a 0.67% change, and its PE(TTM) was 13.45 [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - Closing prices and percentage changes are presented for Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.760 with a - 0.09% change [6]. Money Market - Interest rates and their daily changes are given for R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M. For example, the R001 rate was 1.4012% with a - 11.00 BP change [6].

Core Viewpoint - The political turmoil in Japan is causing significant ripples in the financial markets, with concerns about the country's fiscal outlook intensifying following the ruling coalition's defeat in the House of Councillors election [1]. Group 1: Political Developments - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition suffered losses in the recent elections, leading to increased calls within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) for his resignation [1][8]. - Several LDP members have publicly demanded Ishiba step down, indicating a loss of support following two election defeats [1][9]. - The LDP is facing its weakest parliamentary position in 70 years, having lost majority seats in both houses, which raises concerns about the party's future leadership [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the election results, the Japanese bond market showed signs of weakness, with prices of 20-year and 40-year government bonds declining and yields rising by 1 and 4 basis points respectively [1][6]. - The Japanese yen depreciated approximately 0.2% against the US dollar, trading at 147.7, while the stock market also faced pressure [1][5]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Analysts warn of a potential "triple decline" scenario for the yen, bonds, and stocks due to political uncertainty, which could lead to higher bond yields as Ishiba may need to make fiscal concessions to appease opposition parties and voters [5][7]. - The weak performance of the bond market reflects investor concerns over government fiscal expansion, with expectations of a steepening yield curve, particularly for long-term bonds [6][10]. - The ongoing political instability may hinder Japan's ability to effectively negotiate in international trade discussions, particularly with the US, which has threatened to impose tariffs on Japanese exports [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights rising concerns over "tariff-driven inflation" in the U.S. as President Trump pushes for new tariffs on EU goods, leading to increased inflation expectations in the bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Expectations - The 5-year breakeven inflation rate rose by 4 basis points to 2.53%, the highest level since February, surpassing the 2.5% threshold considered a warning sign for inflation risks [1]. - The 10-year and 30-year breakeven inflation rates also increased, with the 10-year rate reaching 2.43% and the 30-year rate at 2.37% [1]. - Despite rising inflation expectations, nominal yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries fell to 4.43% and below 5%, respectively, indicating investor concerns about potential economic slowdown [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of potential tariffs, U.S. stock markets reacted mildly, with the S&P 500 index nearly flat at 6,297.36 points, close to its historical high [3]. - The Nasdaq index increased by 0.05%, marking its 11th record close of the year at 20,895.66 points, while the Dow Jones index fell by over 100 points to 44,342.19 [3]. - In the bond market, the 2-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.88%, and the 10-year yield fell to 4.421%, both reaching their lowest levels of the year [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Considerations - The uncertainty surrounding inflation risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook remains, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressing a desire to push for rate cuts in July [2]. - The key question is whether the current "tariff inflation" will be a temporary price fluctuation or evolve into long-term structural inflation pressure [2]. - Two uncertain factors could influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts: the effectiveness of stock market rebounds in stimulating consumer spending and the potential impact of Trump's immigration policies on the labor market [2].