2025年07月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪影响，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪影响，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：下游环保减产扰动，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：下游环保减产扰动，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 9 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 2 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | 708.5 | -7.0 | -0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The black commodity futures market was generally weak today. The supply of coking coal decreased due to safety inspections and environmental protection pressures, while the downstream procurement remained cautious. The overall coking coal inventory was still high, and the supply - demand structure only had a short - term structural relief. The upward space and sustainability of coal prices were restricted [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3003 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3136 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; the iron ore main contract closed at 708.5 yuan/ton; both coking coal and coke closed down, with coking coal down more than 3% [1] Market Analysis - In Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, production cuts occurred due to safety inspections, environmental protection pressures, and inventory issues. The domestic coking coal supply decreased. The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 2% week - on - week to 82.5%. The coking coal inventory of mines decreased by 7.23% week - on - week to 463.1 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants decreased by 2.23% to 59.10%, and the inventory of raw coal and clean coal both decreased. Russian coal imports decreased by about 600,000 tons since May, and the customs at three China - Mongolia ports will be closed for 5 days. The downstream procurement of coke and coking coal remained cautious, and the overall coking coal inventory was high. After the end of the safety production month in June, some coal mines resumed production, and the reduction of the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal in the third quarter was almost certain, which would further impact the supply side [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices. Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Hot - rolled coils: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes. Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between the two [1] Summary - Before seeing the stable recovery of production data, be vigilant against the impact of sentiment and maintain the idea of lightly shorting on rebounds [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation phase. The demand for rebar is gently declining, but the inventory has not accumulated during the off - season due to the obvious production transfer of steel mills. The export of billets is still strong, and steel mills have little pressure for now [1]. - The iron ore market is predicted to show a narrow - range oscillation. The supply of iron ore has slightly decreased, while the demand has increased, and the inventory has changed in different directions, resulting in a situation where long and short factors are intertwined [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to operate in an oscillatory manner. The supply of coking coal is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively stable. For coke, the cost may weaken, but the demand has certain support [1]. - The manganese silicon market is likely to oscillate at a low level. The production has increased, the demand has marginally improved, and the cost has slightly increased [1]. - The silicon iron market is expected to have a range - bound oscillation. The supply and demand are both at a low level, and the price driving force is limited [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 2997 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.07%) with a decrease of 18,600 hands in positions. The spot price was basically stable, and the transaction volume slightly increased. The national building materials inventory increased slightly. It is expected to remain in low - level consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures contract i2509 closed at 715.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (0.14%) with a decrease of 11,000 hands in positions. The port spot price slightly decreased. The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, while the iron - making production increased. It is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2509 closed at 825 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan/ton (2.65%) with a decrease of 16,440 hands in positions. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively stable. It is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2509 closed at 1404 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan/ton (1.23%) with a decrease of 2315 hands in positions. The cost pressure of coke enterprises has increased, and the demand has certain support. It is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures contract closed at 5642 yuan/ton, down 0.74% with a decrease of 5151 hands in positions. The production has increased, the demand has marginally improved, and the cost has slightly increased. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5344 yuan/ton, down 0.89% with a decrease of 861 hands in positions. The supply and demand are both at a low level, and the price driving force is limited. It is expected to have a range - bound oscillation [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: For example, the 10 - 1 month spread of rebar is - 18.0, with a change of - 8.0; the 9 - 1 month spread of iron ore is 25.5, with a change of - 1.5 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 133.0, with a change of 48.0; the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore is 33.3, with a change of 2.1 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The Shanghai spot price of rebar is 3130.0, with a change of 50.0; the PB powder spot price of iron ore is 708.0, with a change of 1.0 [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: The rebar disk profit is 71.4, with a change of 12.4; the long - process profit is 157.2, with a change of 50.0; the short - process profit is - 112.6, with a change of 20.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 through charts [6][8][10]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The basis of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025 is shown in the charts, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, etc. [19][20]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The inter - period contract spreads of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025 are presented in the charts, such as the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar [27][33]. - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The inter - variety contract spreads of main contracts, including the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc., from 2020 to 2025 are shown in the charts [41][42]. - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: The profits of the main contract of rebar, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, from 2020 to 2025 are presented in the charts [46][49]. 4. Black Research Team Members - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the coal futures field [52]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum of the steel sector has slightly narrowed. In the off - season, there is still concern about a decline in demand, and the black - metal sector lacks a strong rebound driver. [4][5] - For coking coal and coke, although the fundamentals are improving, the futures prices lack upward drive after reaching certain levels. Attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mine production in July. [6][7] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese mainly fluctuate following coal and steel prices. [7] - Iron ore prices have risen with the overall recovery of industrial products. The price is currently in a trading range, and it can be short - sold near the upper limit. [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Monday, the futures market rose slightly and then fell back, with weak upward - continuation momentum. Spot trading volume and prices improved slightly compared to the previous two weeks. The prices of coal and coke futures declined at the end of the session due to production - resumption news and capital outflows. The basis of black - metal varieties has been rapidly repaired. [5] - Suggestion: Wait and see for single - side trading. Focus on the opportunity of cash - and - carry arbitrage as the basis approaches the re - entry point. Short - term long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. [7] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot: Coking coal auctions were fully completed with most prices rising, while port - traded coke was weak. Downstream enterprises replenished stocks moderately. Some previously shut - down coal mines have started to resume production. [6] - Futures: The prices of coking coal and coke futures declined rapidly after reaching 830 and 1430 respectively, lacking upward drive. The fundamentals are improving, but downstream replenishment motivation is limited. [7] - Suggestion: For speculators, set a stop - loss at the previous high and short on rebounds. Industrial customers can take advantage of the premium for selling hedging. [7] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon: Supply has increased slightly. Demand has risen as steel tenders are settled, iron - making is at a high level, and the demand for metal magnesium has recovered. Short - term supply and demand are acceptable. The price mainly follows coal and steel. [7] - Manganese silicon: Supply has continued to rise, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose with rising inventories. The price mainly fluctuates and follows steel, with attention on coal and manganese ore prices. [7] - Suggestion: Buy call options at low prices for their high price elasticity. [7] Iron Ore - The spot price has declined to narrow the basis, and the optimal deliverable is orbf. The steel mill's profit remains high, and iron - making is expected to stay above 240. The steel data has exceeded expectations, and the iron ore price is in a trading range. [7] - Suggestion: Short - sell near the upper limit of the trading range. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on July 1, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows a gradual increase from - 185.4 to - 180.4 yuan/ton; the 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads are all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis from June 24 to June 30, 2025, increased from - 33.99 to - 19.94 yuan/ton; the fuel oil basis data has some blanks; the crude oil/asphalt ratio decreased from 0.1520 to 0.1395 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for various chemicals from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the natural rubber basis changed from 185 to - 35 yuan/ton. Inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads are also provided for multiple chemicals [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, as well as inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are presented [16]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on June 30, 2025, are provided [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads for multiple agricultural products are also presented [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads for different contracts of these indices are also provided [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate. Macroscopically, most FOMC voters this year are more inclined to cut interest rates after July, and the loosening of interest rates may be beneficial to the global economic environment. China's manufacturing PMI has risen slightly, and the economy is showing a stable and positive trend. Fundamentally, the apparent demand for rebar is basically the same as last week, and the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down due to increased production; the output of hot - rolled coils has slightly declined, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. In general, the off - season demand remains weak, and the inventories are in a relatively healthy position. There is no obvious contradiction in the static fundamentals. For iron ore, the recent increase in arrivals has put downward pressure on prices, while the relatively high iron - making water in the off - season prevents prices from showing a smooth unilateral trend. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, although the short - term market sentiment is improving, the fundamentals still point downward. For industrial silicon, although there is a short - term rebound, it still faces the problem of oversupply. For glass and soda ash, the medium - term supply is loose and the inventory pressure is large, and the prices are expected to be weak [3][6][10][11][13][15][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 2,997 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.066%) from the previous trading day, with 18,221 tons of registered warrants, unchanged from the previous day, and the main contract position decreased by 18,643 lots to 2.12417 million lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,160 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai it was 3,130 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,123 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.064%), with 67,543 tons of registered warrants, a decrease of 1,192 tons, and the main contract position increased by 999 lots to 1.525709 million lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it was 3,200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate. Macroscopically, the loosening of interest rates may be beneficial to the global economic environment, and China's manufacturing economy is showing a stable and positive trend. Fundamentally, the apparent demand for rebar is basically the same as last week, and the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down due to increased production; the output of hot - rolled coils has slightly declined, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The off - season demand remains weak, and the inventories are in a relatively healthy position. There is no obvious contradiction in the static fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on market sentiment, the policy trends of the Politburo meeting in July, the repair rhythm of terminal actual demand, and the support of the cost side for finished product prices [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 715.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.14% (- 1.00), and the position decreased by 11,149 lots to 668,800 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 1.0858 million lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 708 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 34.24 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.57% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: In terms of supply, the latest iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, and the end - of - quarter rush of mines was basically over, with shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreasing. The near - term arrivals decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron production was 242.29 tons, with both blast furnace maintenance and复产. The terminal demand was relatively neutral. In terms of inventory, both the port deshipping volume and port inventory increased, while the steel mill's imported ore inventory slightly decreased. In the future, the pig iron production remains stable, the basis has been shrinking, and the absolute price has rebounded to some extent. The recent increase in arrivals has put downward pressure on ore prices, while the relatively high pig iron production in the off - season prevents prices from showing a smooth unilateral trend. In addition, the performance of coking coal may also put pressure on iron ore [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On June 30, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.49% at 5,642 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 148 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) also closed down 0.48% at 5,344 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,450 yuan/ton, with a premium of 106 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Although the "Israel - Iran conflict" has eased and the price of crude oil has fallen, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market, especially the black sector, has not significantly declined. The reason is that the expected significant decline in demand data has not occurred, and the pig iron production has remained high, which has alleviated market concerns about demand. At the same time, the expectation of interest rate cuts overseas in July has also increased the expectation of domestic stimulus policies. In terms of fundamentals, the industrial pattern is still in surplus, the future demand is expected to weaken marginally, and there is still room for downward adjustment of manganese ore and electricity prices. Therefore, although manganese silicon has continued a narrow - range upward rebound in the short term, attention should be paid to the downward risk. For ferrosilicon, demand determines the price direction in a bear market, and the supply contraction cannot drive prices up strongly due to weak demand expectations. Although the current high - frequency data shows that the demand for coils and pig iron production are still resilient, it is expected that demand will weaken and pig iron production will decline in the future [10][11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position Data**: On June 30, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) rose significantly during the session and then fell back, finally closing up 0.37% at 8,060 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable industrial silicon in East China was 8,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures; the price of 421 was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the futures [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The market sentiment has continued to improve recently, and many previously declining varieties have rebounded significantly. However, compared with April 2024, the current market enthusiasm is significantly lower. Industrial silicon still faces the problem of oversupply and insufficient effective demand. The short - term rebound is driven by the rumor of a large factory's production cut, but in an oversupply situation, the supply reduction is difficult to maintain in the long term. Therefore, it is recommended to wait for a suitable position for hedging [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Position Data**: For glass, the spot price in Shahe on Monday was 1,126 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and in Central China it was 1,030 yuan, unchanged. As of June 26, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.216 million weight boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight boxes (- 0.96%) from the previous period, and an increase of 12.39% year - on - year. The inventory days were 30.5 days, a decrease of 0.3 days. For soda ash, the spot price was 1,223 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, with some enterprises reducing prices. As of June 30, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7688 million tons, an increase of 1,900 tons (0.11%) from Thursday, with light soda ash inventory decreasing by 4,200 tons to 801,000 tons and heavy soda ash inventory increasing by 6,100 tons to 967,800 tons. The net position of both glass and soda ash had more short - position increases yesterday [17]. - **Market Analysis**: For glass, the real estate demand has not been significantly boosted, and the futures price is expected to be weak. For soda ash, although the supply - demand relationship has marginally improved, the medium - term supply is still loose and the inventory pressure is large, and the futures price is also expected to be weak [17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily research on the black - series commodities in the futures market, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The overall market trends are characterized by wide - range fluctuations, with thermal coal showing signs of stabilizing due to improved daily consumption [2][4][6][7][11][14][15][19][23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 715.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton (- 0.14%). The import and domestic ore prices were mostly stable, with some minor changes in the prices of Jinbuba and Super Special ores. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar, the RB2510 contract closed at 2,997 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.23%); for hot - rolled coil, the HC2510 contract closed at 3,123 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.13%). The spot prices in different regions had various changes, and the basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Industry News**: In June, the manufacturing PMI and other economic indicators showed an upward trend. Steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption data had different changes. In May, the exports of steel billets, rebar, and wire rods increased significantly [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][11]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. The spot prices of ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, manganese ore, and semi - coke showed different trends. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads also changed [11]. - **Industry News**: The prices and production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. The production of ferrosilicon in Ningxia increased, and the production of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also showed certain changes [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: Coke is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, while coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations affected by news [2][14][15]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also changed. The positions of the top 20 members in the DCE showed different trends [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [17]. Thermal Coal - **Market Trend**: Expected to stabilize with fluctuations due to improved daily consumption [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading yesterday. The prices of foreign trade and domestic thermal coal in different regions were reported, and the positions of the top 20 members in the ZCE showed no change [20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [22]. Logs - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the change of the main contract [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts showed various changes. The spot prices of logs in different regions were mostly stable [23]. - **Industry News**: The US dollar index fell below 97.0 [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may oscillate weakly in the short term due to pressure on liquidity and demand. After the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, market risk appetite has been continuously recovering, and it is waiting for new domestic and foreign policy signals [1]. - Precious metals maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, but the medium - and long - term support logic remains unchanged. Non - ferrous metals continue the upward trend, and black metals' prices are rising again. Energy and chemical sectors show a weak performance, and agricultural products are on a weak track [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Market Overview - Last week, the overall commodity market declined by 2.00%. The energy and chemical sector fell by 4.23%, agricultural products and precious metals dropped by 1.31% and 0.36% respectively, while black and non - ferrous metals rose by 1.29% and 2.71% respectively [1][6]. - The top - rising varieties were industrial silicon, coking coal, and zinc, with increases of 8.66%, 6.60%, and 3.39% respectively. The top - falling varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with decreases of 12.02%, 10.73%, and 8.09% respectively [1][6]. - There was a small outflow of funds, with little overall change [1][6]. 3.2 Outlook - After the Israel - Iran conflict eased, the market's risk preference is continuously recovering. The market is waiting for new policy signals at home and abroad [1]. 3.3 Specific Commodity Analysis 3.3.1 Precious Metals - They maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Gold is caught between the Fed's high - interest - rate stance and the slight slowdown of US core inflation. Although the US dollar index's strength suppresses gold prices to some extent, geopolitical tensions and central banks' strong gold - buying intentions support gold prices. Silver is affected by its industrial nature, and its short - term trend follows gold [2]. 3.3.2 Non - ferrous Metals - They continue the upward trend. The increase in market risk preference and the Fed's policy adjustment boost the metal sector. Copper prices are supported by low overseas inventories and strong domestic demand, and short - term factors like South American mine maintenance increase supply - tightening expectations. Aluminum prices benefit from rising alumina prices and power - rationing expectations [2]. 3.3.3 Black Metals - Their prices are rising again. Steel futures are firm, driven by the strength of iron ore and expectations of policy support. Iron ore inventories at ports are decreasing, and coke prices are stabilizing, with some areas starting a new round of price increases [3]. 3.3.4 Energy - The overall performance is weak. International oil prices are falling after high - level oscillations, mainly due to the cooling of macro - risk aversion, repeated Fed interest - rate hike expectations, an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, and doubts about OPEC +'s production - cut implementation [3]. 3.3.5 Chemicals - They continue the weak trend. Most chemical varieties are adjusting. Methanol, PVC, and PTA prices are falling due to supply - side recovery and downstream procurement hesitation. High port inventories and import pressure exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction in the methanol market [3]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - The overall trend is weak, with oils and fats falling significantly. The improved weather in South American soybean - producing areas and high domestic soybean inventories suppress the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. Rapeseed meal is weak due to weak aquaculture demand and the price advantage of substitutes [4]. 3.4 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally declined last week, with the total scale increasing by 0.95% and the total trading volume increasing by 12.65%. The energy - chemical ETF and the soybean - meal ETF fell by 4.41% and 4.29% respectively, while the non - ferrous metal ETF rose by 2.19%, and the silver fund rose by 0.83% [35].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities having different trends. Some commodities are expected to be volatile, while others are influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical events, and policy changes. For example, oil prices are expected to be short - term volatile and weak, and the stock market shows a preference for technology growth on the basis of dividend asset allocation. [1][47] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices fell from high levels. After the cooling of the Israel - Iran conflict, oil prices are back to being dominated by macro and supply - demand factors. OPEC+ may increase production in August. The oil market is expected to be short - term volatile and weak. [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Ship refueling and deep - processing demand are low. High - sulfur fuel oil demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is limited. FU is volatile and weak, while LU's cracking has rebounded from a low level. [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the geopolitical situation eases, the Middle East market has declined. Domestic chemical demand has increased, but supply pressure still exists, and the market is expected to be in a range - bound state. [23] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices have given back the war premium as the Israel - Iran conflict stopped. Market attention will shift to tariff negotiations and the Fed. [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Last Friday, copper prices were in a high - level shock. The market is concerned about the US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Short - term, the upward trend of Shanghai copper may reach 81,000, while long - term, short - selling at high levels is recommended. [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum was in a high - level shock on Friday night. There is a large market divergence. There are opportunities for short - selling at high levels after the sentiment stabilizes. [4] - **Zinc**: The zinc market is affected by the strike at a Peruvian smelter, but the global zinc supply is still expected to be in surplus. Wait for the opportunity to short - sell at high levels. [7] - **Lead**: Shanghai lead rose and then fell. The supply side provides support, and the rebound height depends on consumption. [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly. The pressure on the ore end has increased. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. [9] - **Tin**: Tin prices retraced last Friday. It is recommended to short - sell distant - month contracts at high levels. [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: Prices follow steel. In the short - term, it is temporarily bullish. [18] - **Silicon Iron**: Prices follow steel. Demand is okay, and it is temporarily bullish in the short - term. [19] - **Ferroalloys** - **Alumina**: Spot trading is scarce. The domestic production capacity is in an over - supply state, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds. [5] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The futures follow Shanghai aluminum. Consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy if the spread widens. [6] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price has rebounded, but high positions indicate risk accumulation. It is expected to be in a short - term range - bound state. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price has increased with positions. It is expected to be in a range - bound state. [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price has increased with reduced positions. It is expected to be in a low - level range - bound state. [13] - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the market is in a range - bound adjustment. Export policies will be the key to the future trend. [24] - **Methanol**: The expected reduction in imports has not materialized. The market is expected to be in a short - term range - bound state. [25] - **Styrene**: The cost side lacks support, supply pressure has increased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. [26] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The cost side lacks support, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The price is expected to be in a range - bound state. [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is relatively strong in the short - term but may be in a low - level range - bound state in the long - term. Caustic soda is expected to follow the cost fluctuation. [28] - **PX & PTA**: Prices rebounded last Friday night. The supply - demand pattern may become looser in the medium - term. [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price decline has slowed down. It is expected to be in a bottom - range - bound state. [30] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber prices follow raw materials. Bottle chips may have a chance to repair the processing margin, but it should be treated with caution. [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The drought situation in the US soybean产区 has improved. The market is expected to be in a range - bound state for now. [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The market is in a range - bound state. Long - term, a long - position strategy at low levels is recommended for vegetable oils. [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed planting area in Canada is lower than expected, and the rapeseed market continues to have a bearish outlook. [37] - **Soybean No. 1**: The decline has slowed down. Wait for the US soybean planting area report. [38] - **Corn**: The futures market is expected to be in a range - bound state, affected by factors such as wheat policies and state - reserve auctions. [39] - **Hogs**: The short - term price has rebounded, but the long - term supply pressure is large. [40] - **Eggs**: The price is expected to be weak in the long - term. A short - position strategy is recommended. [41] - **Cotton**: US cotton is expected to be affected by the planting area report. Domestic cotton has a good inventory reduction, and long - positions should be held with caution. [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar is trending downward, and the domestic sugar market is expected to be in a range - bound state. [43] - **Apples**: The market is bearish on the new - season output, and a short - position strategy is recommended. [44] - **Wood**: The price is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. [45] - **Pulp**: The price is in a low - level range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see. [46] Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to face pressure on the upside. [20] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The A - share market shows a style preference for technology growth on the basis of dividend asset allocation. [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures are mostly volatile. The bond market may face increased volatility risk in the short - term. [48]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall black commodity futures market rose today, with double coking coal closing down [1]. - The domestic supply of coking coal has declined, while the demand has increased, and the comprehensive inventory of coking coal has reached its lowest level since last May Day holiday [1]. - Under the premium structure of the main contract, the risk of chasing long positions is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure after the resumption of environmentally - friendly production cuts in July and the sustainability of high hot - metal production in the off - season [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The black commodity futures market rose overall. The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore were 2997 yuan/ton, 3123 yuan/ton, and 715.5 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 0.23%, 0.13%, and 0.21%. Double coking coal closed down [1]. Market Analysis Supply - Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have reduced production due to safety inspections, environmental protection pressure, and inventory issues. The utilization rate of approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 2% week - on - week to 82.5%, and the inventory of coking coal in mines decreased by 7.23% week - on - week to 463.1 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants decreased by 2.23% to 59.10%, and both raw coal and clean coal inventories showed a downward trend. Russian coal imports have decreased by about 600,000 tons month - on - month since May, and the three China - Mongolia ports will be closed for 5 days [1]. Demand - The trading atmosphere in the coking coal market has warmed up, with increased procurement inquiries and slightly higher transaction prices of some low - priced coal types. There is a phased replenishment demand at the end of the month, and the daily average output of blast furnace hot - metal in steel mills has increased to 2.4229 million tons. The inventories of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills have increased by 1.66% and 0.8% respectively [1]. Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Double coking coal: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between the two [1].