投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：闾振兴 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03104274 投资咨询证号：Z0018163 电话：0571-87633890 邮箱：lvzhenxing@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 3 月 3 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 1. 相关图表 有色回落 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜日内震荡走低，整体持仓变化不大。市场以跟随板块情 绪波动为主，在高油价冲击下，市场对全球经济前景担忧，带动部 分资源品价格回落。当前整体产业矛盾相对有限。技术上，持续关 注是否会脱离前期波动区间。 沪铝 今日铝价日内高开低走，价格重回 20 日线附近，持仓量略有减 少。从市场走势来看，主要还是跟随板块情绪波动，交易共性为 主。今日沪铝走势明显弱于预期，料后市陷入震荡。 （仅供 ...

Group 1: Cyclical Stocks Analysis - The article reviews the cyclical stock performance since 2000, identifying five typical upward cycles characterized by a 1-2 quarter resonance between PPI increases and production expansion [1] - The rotation sequence of cyclical sectors is summarized as "resources first → manufacturing follows → comprehensive rebound," with key sectors including non-ferrous metals, coal, basic chemicals, shipping + oil transportation, and engineering machinery [1] - In the current cycle (2020-present), some strong non-ferrous metal stocks have seen price increases exceeding 1000%, indicating continued investment value [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Coal sector performance is driven by "supply assurance and price stability" along with energy security logic, though demand validation is still pending [1] - The basic chemicals sector is experiencing significant internal differentiation, with traditional bulk chemical products facing oversupply issues, while new materials (e.g., electronic chemicals, new energy materials) are leading the growth [1] - The shipping and oil transportation sectors are at the beginning of a new cycle, catalyzed by geopolitical conflicts, suggesting potential for further price increases [2] Group 3: PCB Equipment and Drill Demand - Nvidia plans to release a new inference chip with integrated LPU technology by March 2026, marking a shift in AI computing from large-scale training to real-time interaction and low-latency applications [4] - The LPU's design will require significantly larger PCB board areas compared to pure GPU solutions, potentially expanding the market for PCB equipment and materials [4] - The introduction of high-layer PCB boards (52 layers) will increase the demand for high-precision drilling tools, leading to potential shortages and price increases for PCB drill bits [4][6] Group 4: Industry Upgrades and Equipment Demand - In PCB manufacturing, high-precision drilling, exposure, and electroplating are critical for ensuring the yield of 52-layer boards, indicating a capital expenditure expansion period for related equipment suppliers [6] - The integration of GPUs and LPUs will impose stringent requirements on high-precision assembly processes, enhancing the value of the supply chain from simple area expansion to technology-intensive high-value segments [6]

证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2026 年 3 月 3 日 在不确定性中追求确定性 【20260223-20260301】 核心观点 大类资产总览：权益市场持续升温，债市短期遇冷。 节后，进入 2 月最后一周交易日，权益市场仍旧显示出过年 应有的一派"其乐融融"之感，量价齐升下，投资体感较之 前有了明显提升。在全球地缘冲突不断、经济预期未知下， 外部市场不确定性持续提升，变数丛生。而与之相对，中国 市场环境的确定性使得中国资产成为全球更为稀缺的投资 资源，人民币的持续升值与美元的不断走弱，使得中国权益 市场得以吸纳更多外围国际资金，且中国宏观政策的一致性 取向也为投资者带来了更稳定的宏观预期，进而使得市场在 节后，外部环境纷乱的情况下，反而整体呈现出韧性较强， 持续回升的情况。而债市则在遭受权益市场和商品市场持续 吸金的压力后，短期回落。一方面，节后在获取到相对满意 的"过节资金"后，面对外部的火热，留存在债市的风险资 金蠢蠢欲动，持续外流；另一方面，宏观经济尤其是地产层 面出现的企稳迹象，促使更多防御资金转向，主动离开债市 以求博取更大收益。双重作用下，债市短期出现回落情况。 商品市场本周再度震荡向上。快 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the extreme market differentiation observed in the A-share market, driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, which could significantly impact global oil supply and prices [3]. Market Performance - On March 3, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.57%, with total trading volume reaching 31,295 billion yuan, an increase of 1,088 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - The oil and gas sector experienced a surge, with over 30 stocks hitting the daily limit, while nearly 4,800 stocks declined, including significant drops in defense and military (-6.74%), non-ferrous metals (-5.61%), and electronics (-5.30%) [3]. Investment Philosophy - The essence of investing lies in risk management rather than prediction. Investors should focus on controlling risks and making informed decisions about when to buy or sell stocks [4][5]. - Two primary methods for controlling investment risk are diversification and careful stock selection. Diversification serves as a defensive strategy, acknowledging the unpredictability of the market, while careful stock selection is an offensive strategy aimed at identifying certainty within a limited understanding [5][6]. Risk Management - Diversification involves creating a balanced portfolio across different industries and asset types, which helps mitigate losses when certain sectors underperform [5][6]. - Careful stock selection requires investors to assess their understanding of a company, its competitive advantages, and whether the current price offers a margin of safety. This process helps filter out risks [6][7]. Understanding Risks - The greatest risks in investing often stem from the investors themselves, such as chasing trends, frequent trading, and making impulsive decisions based on market fluctuations. These risks are avoidable [7]. - True risk is not merely market volatility but the permanent loss of capital, which is often determined at the moment of purchase. Understanding the relationship between risk and return is crucial, as high risk does not always equate to high returns [7][8]. Investment Mindset - Successful investors are those who can say "no" to unnecessary risks and maintain control over their investment decisions, including position sizing and entry prices [7][8]. - The article emphasizes that investing is a long-term journey, where patience and a focus on fundamental value are key to achieving favorable outcomes over time [9].

Group 1: Price Surge and PPI Impact - The price surge driven by geopolitical events has increased the probability of PPI turning positive by mid-2026, with Brent crude oil prices rising over 30% since December 2025[7] - The South China Comprehensive Index rose by 15.9% from December 2025 to February 2026, with precious metals and energy leading the increase[8] - In January 2026, PPI experienced a month-on-month growth of 0.4%, marking the largest increase in 28 months[8] Group 2: Historical Context and Profit Distribution - Historical data shows that during the 2015-2018 supply-side reform, PPI's positive shift led to a cumulative industrial profit growth of 44.5%, with upstream industries contributing 35.1 percentage points[29] - In contrast, during 2021, a demand rebound allowed downstream manufacturing profits to rise alongside PPI, indicating that demand elasticity is crucial for downstream firms to pass on costs[29] Group 3: Current Challenges in Price Transmission - The industrial sector faces challenges in price transmission due to a long-term structural imbalance and short-term weak demand, with an industrial sales rate of only 96.4% as of the end of 2025, below the historical average of 97.7%[41] - The consumer market remains weak, with retail sales growth dropping to 0.9% in December 2025, and several durable goods categories, including automobiles and home appliances, experiencing negative growth[41] Group 4: Industry-Specific Cost Impact - Industries most affected by cost pressures include automotive manufacturing, general and specialized equipment, and public utilities, which struggle to pass on rising costs due to low cost transmission coefficients[45] - The chemical industry shows a high dependency on oil, with complete consumption coefficients for chemical raw materials reaching 17.63%[47] - The gas supply industry faces extreme cost fluctuations due to a complete consumption coefficient of 60.35% for oil and gas extraction[47]

Market Overview - The A-share market indices experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.43% to close at 4122.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 3.07% to 14022.39 points, the Sci-Tech 50 decreasing by 5.21% to 1388.41 points, and the ChiNext Index declining by 2.57% to 3209.48 points [1][14] - Overall, there were 642 stocks that rose while 4802 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 31,295 billion yuan, an increase of 1,088 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, only the oil and petrochemical, coal, transportation, banking, and public utilities sectors saw gains, with increases of 6.75%, 1.76%, 1.13%, 1.07%, and 0.49% respectively [1][14] - Conversely, the defense and military, non-ferrous metals, electronics, computers, and media sectors led the declines, with decreases of 6.74%, 5.61%, 5.30%, 4.94%, and 4.29% respectively [1][14] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included oil and gas extraction, natural gas, shipping selection, central enterprise coal, outbound tax refund, photovoltaic inverters, central enterprise banks, and coal mining selection [2][11] - Notable declines were observed in sectors such as satellite internet, rare earths, and commercial aerospace [11]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has experienced a significant adjustment, with the Wind non-ferrous metal index dropping by 5.53% and a trading volume close to 350 billion yuan, indicating a need for capital rotation after a prolonged period of price increases [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector saw a collective decline, with major stocks like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others experiencing significant pullbacks [3]. - Over 10 stocks, including Reborn Technology and Shenghe Resources, hit the daily limit down [1][3]. - The non-ferrous metal index has risen over 30% this year, leading to profit-taking among investors [3]. Group 2: External Influences - The rise in coal and oil prices has diverted some capital away from the non-ferrous sector, as the oil and petrochemical sectors have become the strongest in the A-share market due to the impact of the US-Iran conflict [3]. - The "three barrels of oil" (China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and Sinopec) have seen consecutive limit-up days, contributing to a year-to-date increase of over 40% in the oil and petrochemical sector [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent adjustments, many institutions remain optimistic about the future of the non-ferrous metal sector, viewing it as a key area for investment [5][6]. - East China Securities suggests that geopolitical events may further strengthen the inflation trading logic for strategic resources and energy, benefiting the non-ferrous sector [5]. - Guojin Securities emphasizes the importance of physical assets in the current global landscape, recommending metals like copper, aluminum, and tin, which are less likely to be replaced by AI and are expected to benefit from increased global attention on resource products [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the future one to two weeks, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level within the range of 102,000 - 104,000 RMB per ton [3][49] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main SHFE copper contract on March 2, 2026, was 103,300 RMB per ton, a slight increase of 210 RMB or 0.2% from February 27. The discounts of premium copper, flat - grade copper, and wet - process copper all narrowed on March 2, 2026, indicating a strengthening basis. The LME (0 - 3) basis on February 27, 2026, was - 49.47 USD per ton, stronger than on February 24 [1][38] - **Position and Trading Volume**: Position and trading volume data were not provided, but the price movement of the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract on March 2, 2026, showed a 1.10% drop in 24 minutes, indicating increased market volatility and potentially expanding trading volume [39] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: In 2026, floods caused a bridge collapse in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, cutting off the copper export channel and affecting one - third of the electrolytic copper export transportation of the world's second - largest producer, potentially leading to short - term supply shortages. However, the anode copper inventory days of smelters decreased to 7.92 days in February 2026, still at a relatively high level, and Southeast Copper completed its raw material procurement task in January, showing stable domestic supply [2][40] - **Demand Side**: Globally, copper demand is strong, driven by electrification, renewable energy, and AI data centers. But in the spot market, demand recovery is slow, and high copper prices suppress consumption. In the US, the surge in refined copper imports reflects strategic inventory accumulation [2][43] - **Inventory Side**: LME inventory increased to 295,881 tons on March 2, 2026, a 1.82% increase; SHFE inventory slightly increased, and COMEX inventory also rose, indicating overall inventory accumulation [2][51] Price Trend Judgment - In the next one to two weeks, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Supply - side issues may cause short - term shortages, but high smelter inventories and stable domestic supply provide a buffer. Global demand growth supports prices, but slow spot recovery and high copper prices limit consumption. Supply issues boost the shortage expectation in the macro - mood, but inventory accumulation and weak demand restrict the upside space. The price range is expected to be between 102,000 and 104,000 RMB per ton [3][46]

Market Overview - Market trading activity has increased, with the average daily trading volume rising to 2.4 trillion yuan, and the proportion of stocks rising by 75.5%[5] - The median weekly return for all A-shares has increased to 2.3%[5] Fund Flows - Foreign capital inflow reached 5.6 billion USD as of February 25, with northbound trading accounting for 37.4% of total trading volume[5] - Public equity fund issuance has decreased to 880 million yuan, indicating a decline in overall stock positions[5] - ETF funds experienced a significant outflow of 32.34 billion yuan, with passive trading volume decreasing to 6.0%[5] Investor Behavior - The private equity confidence index increased by 0.5% compared to January, although positions have marginally decreased[5] - Retail investor activity has shown a slight increase, indicating growing market participation[5] Sector Performance - The electronics sector saw a net inflow of 15.8 billion yuan, while the non-ferrous metals sector attracted 8.8 billion yuan[5] - The basic chemical sector experienced a net outflow of 2.94 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment[5] Global Market Trends - Southbound capital inflow has slowed, with net purchases dropping to 26.92 billion yuan, representing the 75th percentile since 2022[5] - Global foreign capital has marginally flowed into the US and South Korean markets, with inflows of 5.18 billion USD and 4.22 billion USD respectively[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the performance of various asset classes in the week from February 24th to February 27th, 2026. The equity market showed overall recovery, the convertible bond market declined, the bond market mostly weakened, and commodity futures mostly strengthened. Different market segments were affected by various factors such as policy changes, external trade environment, and geopolitical risks [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Performance of Major Asset Classes - The equity market showed overall recovery. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.98% to 4162.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.8% to 14495.09 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.05% to 3310.3 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges totaled 9.69 trillion yuan. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.82% to 26630.54 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.41% to 5137.84 points [9]. - The convertible bond market declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.24% in the past week, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index fell 0.34%. In the past month, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.9%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.26% [9]. - The bond market mostly weakened. The yields of 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 30-year China Bond Treasury bonds increased by 0.71bp, 0.84bp, 1.33bp, 2.36bp, and 4.36bp respectively, while the 10-year yield decreased by 0.22bp [9]. - Commodity futures mostly strengthened, with silver performing strongly. COMEX gold rose 3.24%, COMEX silver rose 11.61%, LME copper rose 2.28%, LME aluminum rose 1.16%, WTI crude oil rose 0.81%, SHFE rebar rose 0.98%, CBOT soybeans rose 1.41%, and CBOT corn rose 1.88% [10]. 3.2 Performance of the Equity Market - Stocks - The equity market rose this week, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming. Most industries rose, with cyclical sectors such as steel and non-ferrous metals leading the gains. The media, consumer services, and non-bank financial sectors led the declines. The media sector fell 5.21%, consumer services fell 4.14%, and non-bank financials fell 3.21%. The steel sector rose 9.52%, and the comprehensive financial sector rose 2.17% [14]. - Market rotation was still active this week. The market style switched again. Benefiting from post-holiday resumption of work and production, cyclical and resource sectors led the gains, while the consumer sector was relatively weak. In addition, technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and chips also performed well [14]. - The reasons for the market performance are that the trading volume increased in the first week after the holiday, and the trading activity improved. Since the beginning of this year, the prices of many commodities have continued to rise. On the one hand, driven by the expansion of AI-related demand, the prosperity of sub - sectors such as chips and electronic cloth has increased, and prices have strengthened. On the other hand, the prices of resources such as gold and silver have also risen to varying degrees. Under the combined effect of rising product prices and improved profit expectations, relevant fields have strengthened synchronously. In the steel sector, many steel enterprises announced a "good start" in production in the first month of this year, and the production and sales indicators of some steel enterprises performed well, enhancing the investment confidence in the sector [14]. 3.3 Performance of the Equity Market - Convertible Bonds - The equity market rose this week, while the convertible bond market fell. As of February 27, 2026, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.24%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index fell 0.34%. In the past month, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.9%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.26%. The trading volumes of convertible bonds and underlying stocks this week were 2945.06 billion yuan and 5968.85 billion yuan respectively, and the trading activity of both underlying stocks and convertible bonds declined compared with before the holiday [16]. - The convertible bond market was weak this week, lagging behind the overall stock market performance. The resource and pro - cyclical sectors of A - shares showed obvious upward trends, while some high - valuation technology and growth stocks were under pressure. At the same time, the trading volume of convertible bonds decreased, which may have had a certain impact on the convertible bond market [16]. 3.4 Performance of the Fixed - Income Market - The bond market yields generally increased this week, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreasing. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 30 - year China Bond Treasury bonds increased by 0.71bp, 0.84bp, 1.33bp, 2.36bp, and 4.36bp respectively, while the 10 - year yield decreased by 0.22bp [18]. - During the Spring Festival, the US tariff policy fluctuated again, increasing the uncertainty of the external trade environment and affecting the market risk appetite, which had a certain impact on the short - term bond market. On February 25th, Shanghai issued the "Seven Measures for Shanghai" real estate optimization policy, which adjusted the purchase restrictions, housing provident fund use, and property tax, etc. The policy was aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and expectations. Affected by the policy's boost to the real estate chain sentiment, the risk appetite for equities was marginally repaired, and the bond market was under pressure [18]. - In terms of the capital side, on February 25th, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations. From the perspective of the operation intensity and reverse repurchase scale, the monetary policy continued to be relatively loose, and the attitude of maintaining liquidity was stable. Especially before the Two Sessions, the policy orientation of stabilizing the capital side is expected to continue, and the capital price is likely to remain in a reasonable range and be generally stable. In the future, although the bond market sentiment has improved compared with before, there are not enough incremental factors to drive the yield to break through the oscillation range effectively. Before there is a new dominant variable, the market's long and short forces are still relatively balanced, and the bond market is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [19]. 3.5 Performance of the Commodity Market - The Nanhua Commodity Index strengthened overall this week, with precious metals performing strongly. The index rose 3.56% in total. Precious metals led the gains, rising 8.55% compared with the week before the Spring Festival. Metals rose 3.06%, industrial products rose 2.47%, energy and chemicals rose 2.14%, and agricultural products rose 1.19% [27]. - The gold price continued to rise this week and remained at a high level. The uncertainty of the US - Iran situation and the variable policy orientation of the Trump administration have increased the external geopolitical risk premium. At the same time, the short - term rebound of international oil prices and the creation of a new stage high have strengthened the market's re - pricing expectations for inflation and the energy supply - demand pattern, driving the precious metal and energy sectors to strengthen synchronously. In the future, the evolution of the geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and there are also significant differences in the Fed's policy path. It is expected that gold will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term [28][30].