Group 1 - The recent surge in the A-share market indicates the confirmation of a bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through previous high points and showing significant trading volume, suggesting a recovery from earlier declines [1][8][6] - The impact of tariffs announced by Trump is viewed as limited, with historical examples indicating that trade wars do not significantly affect economic performance, as seen during the 1930 trade war [1][17][20] - The bull market is expected to generate three wealth effects: stabilizing expectations, supporting consumption, and restoring financing functions, with increased retail participation in the stock market [1][25][39] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that sectors tend to rotate after new highs, with financials, cyclical resources, and military industries frequently leading the market, while manufacturing and consumer sectors rely more on their own trends [2][43][44] - Potential rotation directions in the current market include non-bank financials and cyclical resource sectors, with expectations for real estate stabilization being crucial for economic recovery [3][7] - The report highlights that the current bull market is characterized by a significant inflow of funds into the stock market, driven by increased retail investor activity and policy support [1][25][39]

乙烯和芳烃在"十三五"是比较鼓励的，一方面是 2015 年自给率还比较低， 另一方面油转化比较符合成品油需求达峰的预期。但是这造成了后续乙烯和 的产能过剩。 因此主要化工品 2025 年上半年平均利润历史分位数均在 50%以下，比如煤 制丙烯、油头丙烯、乙烷裂解、油头乙烯、PDH 利润在历史 10 年的分位数 分别为 36%、36%、36%、27%、0%，合成氨利润在历史 5 年的分位数分别为 17%。 2025 年反内卷的可能抓手 行业报告 | 行业专题研究 石油石化 证券研究报告 反内卷——石化抓手或在控产能 2015 年石化供给侧改革 2016 年 8 月，国务院办公厅印发《关于石化产业调结构促转型增效益的指 导意见》 ，严控基础化工品、炼化烯烃、煤化工等新建产能，以至于中国 炼油能力增长比较和缓，一直到 2024 年之前并未出现明显的过剩。但是 2024 年情况发生了变化，需求端出现了成品油达峰衰退。 石化&化工产品细分品类多，只能抓龙头炼油和乙烯能力。 我们认为炼油行业面临最大的基本面，是成品油需求达峰和衰退，客观上需 要"十五五"产能净淘汰，而不只是新增产能控制。 乙烯行业面临的困境是，大量油转化 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The chemical industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices this year. Key areas to focus on in July include safety regulation policies, supply-side changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush" in the first half of the year, the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies, and stable dividend policies in energy enterprises [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of July 7-13, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 22 saw price increases, 47 experienced declines, and 31 remained stable. 39% of products had a month-on-month average price increase, while 55% saw a decrease, and 6% remained unchanged. The top gainers included DMF, potassium chloride, and acetone, while hydrochloric acid and aniline were among the largest decliners [9][33] Oil Price Trends - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude futures closing at $68.45 per barrel (up 2.93%) and Brent crude at $70.36 per barrel (up 3.02%). The U.S. average daily crude oil production was reported at 13.385 million barrels, a decrease of 48,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 850,000 barrels year-on-year [9][10] Product Price Changes - The average price of polysilicon increased to 31,200 CNY/ton, up 1.30% from the previous week, while glyphosate prices rose to 25,501 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.79% increase. The gross profit margin for glyphosate was reported at 10.85%, with a significant year-on-year increase of 129.88% [9][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several investment themes: the sustained high prices of crude oil, the rapid development of downstream industries, and the recovery of demand supported by policy measures. Recommended companies include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, and various technology firms in the electronic materials sector [10][11] Key Stocks for July - The report highlights "Satellite Chemical" and "Anji Technology" as key stocks for July, with both companies showing strong revenue and profit growth in their recent financial reports [11][17]

Market Performance - The major indices experienced slight increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3510.18, up 0.01%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10696.10, up 0.61% [2] - The ChiNext Index led the gains with a rise of 0.80%, closing at 2207.10, while the STAR 50 Index increased by 1.48% to 994.45 [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Non-Bank Financials, which rose by 2.02%, and Computers, which increased by 1.93% [3] - Conversely, the Banking sector saw a decline of 2.41%, and the Coal sector fell by 0.60% [3] - Concept stocks such as Rare Earth Permanent Magnet and MLOps showed strong performance, with gains of 5.64% and 3.05% respectively [3] Market Outlook - The market showed a mixed performance with a notable rebound in the Rare Earth Permanent Magnet concept stocks and active trading in CRO concept stocks [4] - The overall market sentiment was positive, with more stocks rising than falling, indicating a healthy market environment [4] - The report anticipates a cautious bullish outlook for the market, particularly as it stabilizes around the 3500-point mark, with a focus on technology growth and sectors benefiting from consumer recovery expectations [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector, with a recommendation for key stocks based on their performance and valuation [33]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the North Exchange 50 Index experienced a slight increase of 0.41% during the week of July 7 to July 11, 2025, closing at 1420.81 points, while the average market capitalization of the A-share constituents is 3.113 billion [6][12]. - The report identifies that 66.04% of the stocks listed on the North Exchange rose during the same period, with a notable increase in the number of rising stocks compared to the previous week [17]. - Key sectors that performed well include social services, construction decoration, and building materials, with respective increases of 19.50%, 9.19%, and 7.67% [18]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of July 11, 2025, the North Exchange A-share market consists of 268 stocks, with an average market capitalization of 3.113 billion. The North Exchange 50 Index showed a weekly increase of 0.41% [12]. - The trading volume decreased, with an average daily turnover of 21.552 billion, down 22.98% from the previous week [21]. Stock Performance - In the week from July 7 to July 11, 2025, 177 stocks increased in value, while 88 stocks decreased, indicating a positive market sentiment with a significant rise in the number of gaining stocks [17]. - The top-performing sectors were social services, construction decoration, and building materials, while the worst-performing sectors included oil and petrochemicals, food and beverages, and beauty care [18]. New Stock Updates - No new stocks were listed on the North Exchange during the week, but one company, North Mine Testing, passed the review for listing [26][27]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report emphasizes several key companies with their respective earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, recommending "buy" for Tongli Co. and Wuxin Tunnel Equipment, and "hold" for Kaide Quartz and Hualing Co. [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current strong resonance between Chinese and American stock markets reflects optimistic expectations for future corporate capital returns, with A-shares stabilizing from historical lows and U.S. stocks maintaining high ROE levels [1][2] - The three main catalysts for stabilizing and recovering capital returns in A-shares are: (1) anti-involution leading to stabilization in industries previously constrained by excessive capital expansion, (2) overseas manufacturing demand exceeding service sector demand, and (3) the end of debt contraction cycles [2][3] - The current market pricing indicates that short-term stock prices are ahead of ROE, which aligns with historical bottoming characteristics, and while the absolute level of PB is not extreme, the low absolute level of ROE affects the elasticity and pace of PB recovery [3][4] Group 2 - The future state of capital returns is expected to shift, with domestic capital returns stabilizing and overseas capital returns potentially declining due to the combination of anti-involution, cessation of debt contraction, and the development of overseas manufacturing [4][5] - The relative advantage of the "barbell strategy" may diminish as ROE gradually recovers, with traditional industries such as coal, oil, steel, and utilities showing a higher proportion of low PB stocks compared to TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [3][4] - Recommendations for asset allocation include focusing on upstream resource products and capital goods benefiting from increased overseas demand and domestic anti-involution policies, as well as exploring opportunities in new consumption sectors like hospitality and retail [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the average weekly prices of Brent/WTI crude oil futures were $69.8/$67.9 per barrel, up $1.6/$1.6 from last week [2]. - The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2 billion barrels respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 731/707/24/46 thousand barrels [2]. - US crude oil production was 13.39 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 50 thousand barrels per day. The number of active US crude oil rigs this week was 424, a week - on - week decrease of 1. The number of active US fracturing fleets this week was 176, a week - on - week increase of 4 [2]. - US refinery crude oil processing volume was 17.01 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 100 thousand barrels per day; the US refinery crude oil utilization rate was 94.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points [2]. - US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.01/2.76/3.26 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 910 thousand/+450 thousand/ - 1.36 million barrels per day [2]. - The average weekly prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $91/$102/$90 per barrel respectively, with a week - on - week change of +$2.9/+$2.1/ - $4.1. The price spreads with crude oil were $21/$32/$20 per barrel respectively, with a week - on - week change of +$1.2/+$0.4/ - $5.8 [2]. - US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories were 2.3/1.0/0.4 billion barrels respectively, with a week - on - week decrease of 266/83/91 thousand barrels [2]. - US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production were 9.9/5.09/1.96 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 280 thousand/60 thousand/40 thousand barrels per day [2]. - US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene consumption were 9.9/5.09/1.96 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 280 thousand/60 thousand/40 thousand barrels per day [2]. - US gasoline imports, exports, and net exports were 130 thousand/1.04 million/910 thousand barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 40 thousand/+260 thousand/+300 thousand barrels per day. US diesel imports, exports, and net exports were 40 thousand/1.59 million/1.54 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 80 thousand/+230 thousand/+310 thousand barrels per day. US aviation kerosene imports, exports, and net exports were 80 thousand/250 thousand/170 thousand barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of +10 thousand/+80 thousand/+70 thousand barrels per day [2]. - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corp. (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Oilfield Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (600968.SH). Companies to be noted include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical & Electrical Equipment Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - Data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9] 2. This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review 2.1 Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance - Information on the performance of the petroleum and petrochemical sector, including the rise and fall of various sub - industries and the trend of the sector and the CSI 300 index, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [11][18] 2.2 Sector Listed Company Performance - The table shows the rise and fall of major upstream companies in the sector, including companies such as CNOOC Limited, PetroChina Company Limited, and Sinopec Corp., with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [22][23] - The valuation table of listed companies shows the stock price, total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of companies such as CNOOC Limited, PetroChina Company Limited, and Sinopec Corp. from 2024A to 2027E, with data sources from Wind and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [24] 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.1 Crude Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price spreads of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oil, etc., as well as the relationship between the US dollar index, copper price, and WTI crude oil price, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [26][29] 3.2 Crude Oil Inventory - Studies the relationship between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, the weekly destocking speed of US commercial crude oil and the rise and fall of Brent oil, and the inventory of US total crude oil, commercial crude oil, strategic crude oil, and Cushing crude oil, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [44][45] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of US crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets and their relationship with oil prices, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [57][58] 3.4 Crude Oil Demand - Analyzes US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery utilization rate, and Shandong refinery utilization rate, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [61][63] 3.5 Crude Oil Import and Export - Analyzes US crude oil import, export, and net import volume, as well as the import, export, and net import volume of US crude oil and petroleum products, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [66][68] 4. Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking 4.1 Refined Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price spreads of crude oil and domestic/US/European/Singapore gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene, as well as the domestic gasoline and diesel wholesale - retail price spreads, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [73][76] 4.2 Refined Oil Inventory - Analyzes the inventory of US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene, and Singapore gasoline and diesel, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [99][100] 4.3 Refined Oil Supply - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [115][116] 4.4 Refined Oil Demand - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene consumption and the number of US passenger airport security checks, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [117][118] 4.5 Refined Oil Import and Export - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene import, export, and net export volume, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [126][127] 5. Oilfield Services Sector Data Tracking - Analyzes the average daily fees of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [139][141]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with major indices mostly rising, particularly the ChiNext Index which increased by 2.4% [13][14][16] - The real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors performed relatively well this week, with respective increases of 6.1%, 4.4%, and 4.0% [16][19][34] - The manufacturing sector is predicted to have the highest mid-year report performance growth, with an estimated year-on-year growth rate of approximately 10.0% [33][34] Group 2 - Industries expected to show high mid-year report performance growth include light industry, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial sectors, with predicted net profit growth rates of 34.2%, 33.0%, and 19.1% respectively [33][34] - The construction materials, electronics, and telecommunications sectors are anticipated to have significant performance improvement, with expected growth rate improvements of 11.4%, 7.9%, and 6.1% respectively [34][39] - The current mid-year earnings forecast disclosure rate is only 4.1%, indicating limited reference value for investors [39][42] Group 3 - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share companies is 72%, with many industries showing high pre-announcement rates, particularly in real estate and non-bank financial sectors [39][40] - The environmental protection, transportation, and media sectors are expected to show significant improvement in mid-year earnings forecasts, with respective improvement rates of 139.5pct, 111.0pct, and 96.7pct [41][44] - The market is expected to experience a bullish trend in the second half of the year, with a focus on sectors that are likely to outperform in mid-year reports [57][58]

Market Overview - The main indices showed slight fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.8% [1] - Among the Shenwan first-level industry sectors, non-bank financials, computers, and steel performed well, while textiles and apparel, oil and petrochemicals, and transportation lagged behind [1] Concept Sector Performance - Overall, the rare earth, stock trading software, and rare earth permanent magnet concepts performed relatively well, whereas the banking, circuit board, and vitamin concepts showed weaker performance [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market closed above the 3500-point mark, indicating a continued recovery in market risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the high point from November 8, 2024 [1][3] - The recent market uptrend is a response to the U.S. adjusting tariff rates for 14 countries, suggesting that the market has become desensitized to tariff impacts and has formed sufficient expectations regarding these changes [1] - Key support factors for the ongoing rise in A-shares include the sustained low interest rate environment and the potential for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The outlook for July suggests that the A-share market may continue to experience event-driven thematic trading, with a high likelihood of sector rotation between high and low-performing segments [2] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and consumption is a key task for 2025, with expectations for policy support in the consumer sector, particularly in areas like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2] - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is expected to continue into 2025, with opportunities arising in sensor, controller, and robotic hand sectors as products evolve from humanoid to functional robots [2] Group 3 - The market saw over 2900 stocks rise, with significant gains in sectors such as real estate, oil and petrochemicals, steel, non-bank financials, and coal, while sectors like automotive, media, military, electronics, and utilities faced declines [3] - The military industry is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery already evident in Q1 reports across various military sub-sectors [2] - The innovative drug sector is expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment, with positive net profit growth observed for three consecutive quarters since Q3 2024 [2]