证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 10 月 23 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20251023 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数收涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.22%，收报 3922.41 点；深证成指涨 0.22%，收报 13025.45 点；科创 50 跌 0.30%，收报 1401.26 点；创业板指涨 0.09%，收报 3062.16 点。总体上，全天个股涨跌参 半，Wind 数据显示，全市场 2991 只个股上涨，2301 只个股下跌，143 只个股 收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 16439 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 239.47 亿元。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为冰雪旅游、锂矿、央企煤炭、近端 次新股、短剧游戏、盐湖提锂、量子技术、化学纤维精选、网络安全、操作 系统、两岸融合、煤炭开采精选、Kimi、铝产业、锂电电解液板块。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 6 | 一、市场回顾 ...

Market Overview - In Q3 2025, both domestic and international equity markets experienced overall growth, with notable increases in the ChiNext and STAR Market indices in China, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices overseas [2] - The A-share market saw significant leadership from the technology TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors, with respective increases of 37.2% and 27.1% [2] - The trading logic for the market is influenced by reduced policy disturbances from the US government, alleviated growth and inflation concerns, and a favorable liquidity environment [2] Macro Analysis - The US economy is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2025, a decline from the previous three-year average of nearly 3%, but still away from recession [3] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts are anticipated to improve financial conditions, supporting a narrative of economic resilience [4] - Domestic demand in China has weakened, with industrial output growth slowing and retail sales growth declining to 3.4% year-on-year by August [5] Asset Analysis - Bond yields have risen significantly in Q3, driven by pressures on the liability side, with long-term rates increasing more than short-term rates [8] - The bond market is expected to return to being driven by economic fundamentals after the release of liability pressures [8] - The current environment suggests a focus on mid-to-short-term high-yield bonds, while long-term opportunities remain uncertain [10] A-share Market - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with the core focus on technology TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors [12] - By the end of Q3, the valuation metrics for the A-share market indicated a high level, with the PE ratio exceeding the three-year average by two standard deviations [12] - Profit expectations for Q4 are under pressure due to high base effects from the previous year [12] Currency and Policy Environment - The RMB has maintained a strong position in Q3, with expectations for continued strength influenced by domestic monetary policy adjustments [13] - The external liquidity environment is favorable for domestic equity markets, although potential volatility remains due to changes in high-risk preference funding [14] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests an overweight in equities and a standard allocation to bonds, focusing on sectors with high growth potential such as AI and semiconductors [16] - The strategy emphasizes a balanced approach in asset allocation, particularly in light of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" and the implications of recent quarterly reports [18] - The focus should remain on high-growth sectors while being cautious of potential volatility in previously high-performing areas [18]

2025年10月23日，截至10点57分，A股主要指数表现疲软，上证指数下跌0.78%，创业板指下跌 1.30%，科创50指数下跌1.72%，均处于回调态势。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 持仓成分股资讯，百利天恒（688506.SH）在ESMO大会上公布其双抗ADC药物iza-bren的海外多中 心临床数据，两项研究成果入选"最新突破摘要"（LBA），并同步发表于《柳叶刀》主刊，展现中国创 新药全球影响力持续提升。 科创50ETF（588000）追踪科创50指数，指数持仓电子行业70.55%，计算机行业4.54%，合计 75.09%，与当前人工智能、机器人等前沿产业的发展方向高度契合。同时涉及医疗器械、软件开发、 光伏设备等多个细分领域，硬科技含量高，未来成长空间值得期待。看好中国硬科技长期发展前景的投 资者建议持续关注。 相关ETF：科创50ETF（588000）。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector showed resilience on October 23, with the chemical ETF (516020) rebounding after an initial dip, reaching a maximum intraday increase of 1.24% and closing up 0.83% [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector included Hengli Petrochemical, which surged over 5%, and several others like Xin Fengming and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which rose more than 3% [1][2] - The city of Linyi announced a focus on the fine chemical industry as one of its 13 key industrial chains, emphasizing new fertilizers and rubber materials [1][3] Group 2 - East China Securities noted a shift in the global chemical landscape, with Europe experiencing a decline in production capacity, leading to the closure of 21 major chemical plants and a loss of over 11 million tons of capacity [3] - China's chemical industry is filling gaps in the international supply chain due to its cost and technological advantages, potentially reshaping the global chemical landscape [3][4] - The chemical ETF (516020) is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.23, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3][4] Group 3 - The outlook for the chemical sector suggests structural optimization on the supply side, with a focus on resilient and advantageous product segments [4][5] - The ETF tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors, with nearly 50% of its holdings in leading stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Potash [5]

| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 煤炭 | 1.55 | 162.16 | 61.42 | 陕西黑猫 | 10.12 | | 石油石化 | 1.13 | 133.84 | 7.85 | 恒力石化 | 4.63 | | 公用事业 | 0.58 | 240.18 | 13.03 | 深圳能源 | 9.96 | | 社会服务 | 0.22 | 90.54 | 21.04 | 国缆检测 | 20.00 | | 交通运输 | 0.22 | 181.20 | 5.84 | 秦港股份 | 10.14 | | 银行 | 0.02 | 290.88 | 64.27 | 邮储银行 | 4.01 | | 家用电器 | -0.15 | 189.97 | -9.13 | 亿田智能 | -6.98 | | 非银金融 | -0.15 | 269.65 | -6.27 | 中油资本 | -2.85 | | 传媒 | -0.17 | 269.62 | 7.39 | 星辉娱乐 | -7.0 ...

| 国防军工 | | | | 菲利华 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电子 | -1.87 | 1267.98 | -15.04 | 威尔高 | -13.79 | | 建筑材料 | -2.18 | 68.19 | -24.95 | 中铁装配 | -8.13 | | 通信 | -2.36 | 450.81 | -19.68 | 长飞光纤 | -7.35 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:28，今日沪指跌0.81%，A股成交量577.04亿股，成交金额7918.56亿 元，比上一个交易日减少7.51%。个股方面，1268只个股上涨，其中涨停41只，4028只个股下跌，其中 跌停3只。从申万行业来看，煤炭、石油石化、公用事业等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.11%、0.61%、 0.43%；通信、建筑材料、电子等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为2.36%、2.18%、1.87%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:28） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- ...

FICC日报 | 2025-10-23 指数震荡，关注重要会议文件 市场分析 关注月底会议。宏观方面，特朗普表示，期待同中国领导人在下周亚太经合组织领导人非正式会议期间达成良好 的贸易协议，但他并称会晤也可能取消。外交部对此回应称，元首外交对中美关系发挥着不可替代的战略引领作 用，中美两国元首保持着密切的沟通和交往。关于提到的具体问题，目前没有可以提供的信息。海外方面，美国 政府停摆已持续22天，成为史上第二长停摆事件，两党在即将到期的医疗补贴问题上依然僵持不下。由于美国总 统特朗普预计将于本周晚些时候访问亚洲，国会议员和助手们认为，此次政府停摆有可能会持续到11月，并超过 特朗普首个任期时35天的停摆纪录。 指数震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡，沪指跌0.07%收于3913.76点，创业板指跌0.79%。行业方面，板块指数 跌多涨少，石油石化、银行、家用电器行业领涨，有色金属、电力设备、农林牧渔行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市 成交金额约为1.7万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收跌，纳指跌0.93%报22740.40点。 期指活跃度下降。期货市场，基差方面，IF、IC、IM基差回升。成交持仓方面，股指期货成交量 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing presence of pension funds in the secondary market, with a total of 13 stocks appearing in the top ten circulating shareholders list by the end of the third quarter, including 8 new entries and 2 increased holdings [1] - By the end of the third quarter, pension funds held a total of 122 million shares across these stocks, with a combined market value of 4.192 billion yuan [1] - The stock with the highest pension fund holdings is Haiyou Development (600968), with a total of 65.3843 million shares held by two pension fund combinations, ranking as the fourth and ninth largest circulating shareholders [1] Group 2 - The pension fund's holdings are primarily concentrated in the automotive and electronics sectors, with 3 and 2 stocks respectively [2] - Among the stocks held by pension funds, 10 companies reported net profit growth in their third-quarter reports, with Dingtong Technology achieving the highest growth rate of 125.39%, reaching a net profit of 176.572 million yuan [2] - The longest-held stock by pension funds is Chuanfeng Power (603129), which has appeared in the top ten circulating shareholders list for 14 consecutive reporting periods, maintaining a holding of 7.9514 million shares [2]

Group 1: Aluminum Sector Outlook - CITIC Securities maintains a positive outlook on the aluminum sector, anticipating a rise in both profitability and valuation due to supply constraints [1] - Century Aluminum announced a production reduction at its Grundartangi smelter, affecting 200,000 tons of capacity [1] - The likelihood of Mozal Aluminum's smelter facing a shutdown for maintenance due to power supply issues is considered high, potentially impacting 500,000 tons of capacity [1] Group 2: Precious Metals and Market Sentiment - CITIC Jin Investment reports signs of overheating in silver trading, while maintaining a bullish long-term outlook on gold [2] - A decline in sentiment indices for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has been observed, with an increase in VIX for major indices [2] - The report highlights a shift in institutional focus towards sectors such as defense, non-bank financials, and an increase in attention on coal, metals, and power equipment [2] Group 3: 3D Printing Industry Potential - Guojin Securities indicates that the consumer-level 3D printing sector may be on the verge of a breakthrough, driven by the demand for personalized products [3] - The characteristics of 3D printing, such as small batch production and quick returns, align well with new consumer trends [3] - The report suggests that 3D printing equipment is entering a critical phase of consumer product proliferation, with a focus on companies integrated into the supply chains of major manufacturers [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced weak fluctuations, with all three major indices showing a decline after briefly turning positive during the day [2][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3913.76, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62% to 12996.61 [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.67 trillion, marking a decrease of 224.8 billion from the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Petroleum and Petrochemicals (+1.58%), Banks (+0.97%), and Household Appliances (+0.82%) [3] - Conversely, sectors such as Non-ferrous Metals (-1.36%), Electric Power Equipment (-1.29%), and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (-1.19%) showed significant declines [3] - Concept indices like Combustible Ice and Shale Gas performed well, while sectors like Hainan Free Trade Zone and Graphite Electrode faced losses [4] Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a potential increase in risk appetite due to upcoming events such as the Fourth Plenary Session and the verification of third-quarter earnings [6] - Focus is recommended on sectors such as dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), Non-ferrous Metals, and New Energy for potential investment opportunities [6] - The report indicates that the market is currently in a "high-cut-low" structural phase, with a tightening risk preference [6]