基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 9 月 1 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20250831 国际油价、氢氟酸价格上涨， TDI 价格下跌 八月份建议关注：1、中报行情；2、"反内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、自主可控日益关 键背景下的电子材料公司；4、分红派息政策稳健的能源企业等。 行业动态 投资建议 截至 8 月 31 日，SW 基础化工市盈率（TTM 剔除负值）为 25.77 倍，处在历史（2002 年至 今）82.14%分位数；市净率为 2.23 倍，处在历史 54.61%分位数。SW 石油石化市盈率（TTM 剔除负值）为 11.87 倍，处在历史（2002 年至今）28.30%分位数；市净率为 1.17 倍，处在 历史 23.58%分位数。今年以来，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，八 月份建议关注：1、中报行情；2、"反内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、自主可控日益关键背 景下的电子材料公司；4、分红派息政策稳健的能源企业等。中长期推荐投资主线：1、原油价格有 望延续中高位，油气开采板块高景气度持续，能源央企提质增效深入推进，分红派息政策稳健。油 气上游资本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the oil and petrochemical index performed generally, with a decrease of 0.57% compared to the previous week, while other petrochemical sectors showed a better performance with an increase of 1.15% [1][2] - The report highlights the steady increase in the price and price spread of polyester filament, along with a rise in inventory days and operating rates of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [1][3] - The energy prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a decrease in US crude oil inventory and a mixed performance in refined oil inventory [3] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of eliminating outdated facilities and upgrading in the petrochemical industry, especially in light of the stable reduction in US oil inventory [2][4] - It suggests that if demand improves and there is progress in eliminating backward production capacity, it would be beneficial for the midstream refining sector [4]

证券研究报告 石化行业周报：本周石化板块整体表现一般， 持续关注反内卷 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-09-01 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：美油库存去化，平稳。持续关注反内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 ◼ 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现一般，较上周下跌0.57%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看，本周其他石化在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅1.15%。 ◼ 原油：能源价格震荡。美原油库存下降，美成品油库存表现分化 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格、价差均稳中有涨。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数上涨，织机开工率上涨 ◼ 烯烃：样本聚烯烃现货价格平稳，库存下降 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 化、需求变化、其他等。 本周石化表现一般，石油石化指数下跌0.57% 图表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is showing strength, particularly in cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary, metals, pharmaceuticals, coal, and steel, with the launch of the Tianhong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (159281) on September 2, 2023, which aims to track high dividend-yielding central enterprises [1] Group 1: ETF and Index Details - The Tianhong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF has an annual management fee of 0.5% and a custody fee of 0.1% [1] - The ETF closely tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index (931233), which selects stable dividend-paying companies controlled by central enterprises within the Stock Connect framework [1] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the index's sector distribution includes banking, transportation, non-bank financials, telecommunications, and oil and petrochemicals, with the top ten constituents accounting for 31% of the index [1] Group 2: Performance Metrics - The index has a dividend yield exceeding 7% as of the end of Q2 2025 [3] - Historical performance shows that the index achieved an annualized return of 14.27% over the past five years, with an annualized volatility of 22.02% as of July 9, 2025 [3] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The investment value of Hong Kong central enterprise dividends is expected to continue benefiting from inflows of southbound capital, structural market conditions, and a focus on investor returns through improved dividend policies [4] - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to rise further in the second half of the year, driven by three positive factors, including the AI cycle benefiting technology stocks and the low-interest-rate environment enhancing dividend attractiveness [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector's transaction volume has exceeded 40%, indicating strong market interest but not necessarily signaling a peak [1][2] - The overall A-share market is expected to enter an active replenishment cycle by the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by improving domestic fundamentals and liquidity [1][4] Financial Performance - In the 2025 mid-year report, non-financial equity revenue decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 2.3%, showing a decline compared to the first quarter [1][5] - The return on equity (ROE) for the entire A-share non-financial sector is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter after a slowdown in its decline [1][5] Market Dynamics - The current market shows high congestion in components, semiconductors, and communication devices, while software, gaming, and fintech applications are less congested [3] - The non-financial industry prosperity index has risen for three consecutive months, indicating a potential turning point in the revenue cycle [3][10] Inventory and Capacity Cycles - Most sectors are experiencing a dual decline in revenue and inventory growth, reflecting a deepening active destocking phase [6] - The construction and consumption sectors have been in active destocking for five consecutive quarters, while the export chain and TMT sectors remain in a high active replenishment state [6][7] Investment Opportunities - Industries such as chemicals and steel, which have seen a decline in revenue but an increase in advance payments, are expected to experience a revenue growth turning point in the next two quarters [8] - The computer, optical, and electrical engineering sectors are anticipated to continue in a state of dual improvement in supply and demand [8] Sector-Specific Insights - The AI industry is showing positive trends, with significant capital expenditure and production increases in related sectors such as communication equipment and storage devices [11][12] - The engineering machinery sector is recovering, with increased sales and operational hours observed in the third quarter [18] Consumer Trends - Consumer goods sectors, including beer, food, and dairy products, are showing signs of recovery, closely linked to restaurant data [19] - The real estate market is experiencing mixed signals, with new home sales declining year-on-year but showing signs of stabilization in first-tier cities [20] Recommendations - Short-term investment strategies should focus on strong sectors such as AI, pharmaceuticals, and military-related industries, while also considering undervalued consumer and non-bank financial sectors benefiting from currency appreciation [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - A-share companies' profitability showed a modest increase in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, while non-financial profits grew by only 1.5% [1][5][20]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders for the entire A-share market, financial sector, and non-financial sector grew by 2.8%, 4.2%, and 1.5% respectively [1][5]. - Non-financial operating revenue experienced a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the net profit growth rates for the entire A-share market, financial sector, and non-financial sector were 1.6%, 5.7%, and -1.6% respectively, indicating a negative growth for non-financial profits [1][19]. Sector Analysis - The real estate and export sectors saw a slowdown in growth compared to Q1, with PPI's year-on-year decline further widening, impacting non-financial revenue growth and profit margins [1]. - The financial sector remained active in Q2, with the securities and insurance industries experiencing a profit growth of 16.6%, driven by a 49.2% increase in securities profits and a 5.9% increase in insurance profits [1][19]. - The main board, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board saw year-on-year profit changes of -2.7%, +4.1%, and +24.5% respectively in Q2 [1][19]. Economic Segmentation - The new economy's profitability improved by 6.8% year-on-year in Q2, while the old economy turned negative with a decline of 8.3% [1][19]. - Profit growth in upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors was -16.3%, +3.7%, and +1.7% respectively, with upstream performance weakened by the widening PPI decline [1][19]. Industry Highlights - The TMT sector, non-ferrous metals, and certain midstream areas performed well, with specific growth characteristics including: - Energy and raw materials sector profits increased by 12.7%, 77.5%, and 40.5% for industrial metals, precious metals, and rare metals respectively [18]. - The midstream manufacturing sector, particularly in power equipment and new energy, saw a profit increase of 26.8% [18]. - The consumer sector's profitability was supported by price and cost reductions, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery profits up by 20.4% [18]. Profit Distribution - The profitability of energy raw materials as a percentage of total profits decreased from nearly 40% in 2022 to 30.8% in Q2 2025 [1][14]. Performance Quality - Non-financial ROE remained stable, with upstream sectors experiencing a decline while midstream sectors stabilized [24][25]. - A-share companies' cash flow statements showed improvement, with operating cash flow reaching the highest level since 2010 [31][34]. - Capital expenditure growth improved, with new economy sectors showing positive growth for the first time since Q2 2024 [39][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The oil market experienced a slight rebound this week, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices closing at $64.01 and $68.12 per barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.55% and 0.58% from the previous week [1] - OPEC+ has completed four consecutive production increases since May, with a total increase of over 1.2 million barrels per day from May to July, and an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, marking the highest monthly increase since the Saudi price war in 2020 [2] - The IEA and EIA have adjusted their forecasts for global oil supply and demand, with the IEA predicting a supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day for the year, while the EIA forecasts a 2.28 million barrels per day increase [2][3] - The report highlights a significant decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, with a decrease of 2.392 million barrels reported for the week ending August 22 [3] Supply Summary - OPEC+ plans to increase production by an additional 550,000 barrels per day in September, aiming to fully restore the 2.2 million barrels per day of production capacity that was previously cut [2] - The IEA's August report indicates that non-OPEC+ countries are expected to add 1.3 million barrels per day of supply by 2025, primarily from the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Guyana [2] Demand Summary - The IEA has downgraded its demand forecast for emerging markets, particularly for China, Brazil, Egypt, and India, while the EIA has raised its demand forecast for China, Canada, and the U.S. [3] - The IEA's forecast for demand growth in 2025 has been reduced from 700,000 barrels per day to 680,000 barrels per day, marking the lowest growth rate since 2009, excluding the unique macroeconomic events of 2020 [3] Price Support Analysis - The average breakeven price for U.S. oil and gas companies developing new wells is approximately $65 per barrel, with larger companies having a breakeven price around $61 per barrel [4] - The report indicates that 61% of U.S. oil and gas executives believe that if WTI prices remain at $60 per barrel, their companies will slightly reduce production [4]

Overall Analysis - In Q2 2025, the overall A-share market experienced a decline in profitability, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.41% for net profit attributable to shareholders, down from 2.57% in H1 2025 [11][12] - The revenue growth for the entire A-share market in H1 2025 was 0.21%, with Q2 showing a slight improvement to 0.49% [12][19] - The return on equity (ROE) for the non-financial and non-oil sectors stabilized at 6.26% in Q2 2025, indicating a need for further observation regarding upward elasticity [28][31] Industry Analysis - The industries with the highest year-on-year net profit growth in Q2 2025 included comprehensive services (+239.7%), steel (+82.2%), electronics (+27.6%), and electric equipment (+24.6%) [3][24] - The real estate, electric equipment, and defense industries showed improvements in net profit growth compared to Q1 2025 [3][24] - The TMT sector (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) demonstrated strong performance, with electronics and computing sectors showing significant improvements [3][24] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow showed a year-on-year improvement in Q2 2025, although overall cash flow levels remained low compared to the past decade [12][19] - The financing cash flow indicated a reduction in corporate debt repayment pressure, while investment cash flow remained stable [12][19] Dividend Distribution - As of August 30, 2025, 813 listed companies had disclosed and implemented dividends, with a total dividend payout of 642.8 billion yuan, reflecting an increase from 2024 [4][25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that mid-term cash dividends are becoming a new norm in the A-share market, with companies increasingly prioritizing shareholder returns [2][3] - A total of 809 listed companies have announced mid-term cash dividend plans, representing 14.91% of all A-share companies, both figures are historical highs [2] - The total amount of mid-term cash dividends reached 639.13 billion yuan, accounting for 21.36% of the total net profit of A-share companies in the first half of the year, marking the highest levels ever [2] Group 2 - The banking sector is the most generous in terms of cash dividends, with an expected payout of 237.54 billion yuan for the mid-term of 2025 [3] - 240 companies are set to distribute more than half of their profits as dividends, with the top five companies having cash dividend ratios exceeding 100% of their net profits [4] - China Mobile leads the A-share market with a total cash dividend of 54.087 billion yuan, distributing 2.5 yuan per share [3][4] Group 3 - A list of high dividend and high growth stocks has been compiled, with 72 stocks showing a dividend yield of over 2% [5] - Dongfang Yuhong has the highest dividend yield at 7.87%, with a total cash dividend of 2.21 billion yuan [5] - Several stocks with dividend yields over 5% include Siwei Liekong, Shuoshi Biology, and Yiqiao Shenzhou [5][6] Group 4 - Among the stocks with a dividend yield above 2%, several are heavily held by social security funds, indicating strong institutional interest [6] - Companies like Huawang Technology and Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical have seen significant increases in net profit, with some exceeding 50% growth [6] - Ice Glacier Network reported a turnaround with a net profit of 336 million yuan in the first half of the year, showcasing the potential for growth in the gaming sector [6]

Group 1 - A-share companies have announced over 800 mid-term cash dividend plans, setting a historical record, with total cash dividends exceeding 639 billion yuan and a cash dividend ratio of 21.36% of total net profits [1] - The banking sector leads in dividend scale, with an expected mid-term cash dividend of 237.54 billion yuan in 2025, followed by industries such as oil and petrochemicals, telecommunications, non-bank financials, coal, and transportation [1] Group 2 - Major companies like China Mobile and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have cash dividends exceeding 50 billion yuan, while over 20 companies, including Chang'an Automobile and Hengli Petrochemical, are initiating mid-term dividends for the first time [3] - In terms of cash dividend ratios, companies like Shuoshi Biology and Yisheng Shares have exceptionally high ratios, with Shuoshi Biology proposing a cash dividend of 34 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a cash dividend ratio of 7142.28% [3] - Institutional investors show a clear preference for high dividend yields, with Dongfang Yuhong leading at a yield of 7.87%, and several other companies also exceeding 5% [3][4] Group 3 - Among stocks with dividend yields over 2%, six companies, including Bingchuan Network and Jinneng Technology, reported net profit growth exceeding 50% in the first half of the year [4] - Bingchuan Network achieved a net profit of 336 million yuan, marking a turnaround, with a mid-term dividend yield of 2.3% [4]