Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rebar market is in a stage of "weak reality + strong expectation" with a game between short - term production contraction and weak demand. The high inventory suppresses price elasticity, and the price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern with limited upside and downside support from costs. If demand significantly recovers in mid - to - late March, it may be the key to break the price situation [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The open interest of the main rebar contract decreased by 21,925 lots on Tuesday, and the trading volume shrank compared with the previous trading day, with 788,272 lots. The short - term average price broke through the 5 - day moving average, but there was still pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The lowest price was 3,057 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,078 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,074 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.07% [2] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,190 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 116 yuan/ton to the spot price, and the basis was still large [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: Before the Spring Festival, the weekly rebar production declined from a high level. In the week of February 26, 2026, the rebar production was 1.651 million tons, a decrease of 52,800 tons from the previous week and 414,000 tons lower than the same period in the previous year. The production in 2026 was significantly lower than that in the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills actively reduced production around the Spring Festival to cope with weak demand and inventory pressure [4] - Demand: Terminal demand dropped sharply and was at a historical low. In the week of February 26, 2026, the current apparent demand was only 33,550 tons, a decrease of 54,600 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decline of 157,160 tons, being at the lowest level in the same period of the past three years. This was mainly due to the seasonal off - season caused by construction site shutdowns and stagnant terminal procurement around the Spring Festival, and the decline was far greater than in previous years, indicating weaker expectations for demand recovery this year [4] - Inventory: Both factory and social inventories increased, and the total inventory was still lower than the same period last year. Factory inventory was 232,840 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,770 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1,430 tons. Social inventory was 567,760 tons, a week - on - week increase of 72,790 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 61,410 tons. The total inventory was 800,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 84,560 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 62,840 tons. Although the week - on - week increase was significant, the year - on - year decrease was still large, indicating that the overall industry inventory pressure was less than in previous years [4][5] - Inventory - to - sales ratio: It was at a high level, reflecting the imbalance between supply and demand. The current inventory - to - sales ratio was 167.04, a significant year - on - year increase to 135.35. A high inventory - to - sales ratio meant that the current inventory level was much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply - demand mismatch was serious, which would suppress the rebound space of steel prices until demand substantially recovered [5] - Cost and profit: The steel mill profit rate was stable, and the cost support weakened marginally. The steel mill profit rate remained in the range of 38% - 40%, and the profit could support blast furnace production. However, pressure emerged on the raw material side: the iron ore port inventory exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; and coking coal imports continued to grow, weakening the cost support [5] - Macroeconomic aspects: In 2026, policy expectations for the start of the "15th Five - Year Plan" increased, with pre - issued projects such as central budgetary investment, underground pipe networks, and urban renewal, strengthening the expectation of infrastructure support. However, in the short term, due to the 10% tariff imposed by the US on imported goods, market sentiment was cautious. Coupled with the uncertainty of the post - Spring Festival demand recovery rhythm, the market entered a "policy game period" [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The Two Sessions are about to be held, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, policy expectations are rising, and the supply side is contracting [6] - Bearish factors: Terminal demand remains sluggish, cost support weakens, inventory continues to accumulate, the de - stocking speed slows down, and the capital position structure is bearish [6] Short - term View Summary - On Tuesday, the rebar open interest decreased, trading volume shrank, and the price closed up in a volatile manner. It is expected to continue a relatively strong volatile trend in the short term. The upper pressure should be focused on the convergence of the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term support should be focused on the previous low. The upcoming Two Sessions' production restriction expectations provide short - term support. Although the situation between the US and Iran has escalated, its impact on rebar is limited [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal supply is abundant, with high Mongolian coal customs clearance and slow resumption of production in coal washing plants. Downstream coke enterprises'开工 has slightly increased, coking coal inventory has decreased, and coke has continued to accumulate. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is reported at 1,390 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1,305 yuan/ton on the futures market. Technically, the intraday coking coal main contract closed up 4.01% to 1,127, below the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. Geopolitical risks and the Two Sessions' expectations boost the futures market, but the fundamentals are loose and there is an expectation of coke price cuts, so the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely [2]. - On the supply side, the load of coke enterprises has increased, and the in - plant inventory has continued to accumulate due to logistics. On the demand side, the steel mill's开工 and hot metal production have continued to rise. Technically, the intraday coke main contract closed up 3.42% to 1,694, between the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. Currently, the coke supply - demand is loose, the market sentiment is weak, and there is an expectation of price cuts. As the Two Sessions approach, the steel mill's开工 may be restricted and the growth rate of hot metal may slow down, while geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment provide phased support, so the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1,127.00, up 33.00 [2]. - J main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1,694.00, up 42.00 [2]. - JM futures contract open interest (daily, lots): 685,531.00, down 32,910.00 [2]. - J futures contract open interest (daily, lots): 43,458.00, down 1,114.00 [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts (daily, lots): - 86,455.00, up 10,462.00 [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts (daily, lots): - 314.00, down 700.00 [2]. - JM September - May contract spread (daily, yuan/ton): 95.00, down 5.50 [2]. - J September - May contract spread (daily, yuan/ton): 76.00, down 3.00 [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts (daily, sheets): 0.00 [2]. - Coke warehouse receipts (daily, sheets): 0.00, up 7.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Dry Qimengduo Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (daily, yuan/ton): 1,013.00 [2]. - Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1,720.00 [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR, US dollars/wet ton): 162.50 [2]. - Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1,520.00 [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal (yard price, daily, yuan/ton): 1,570.00 [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal (yard price, daily, yuan/ton): 1,700.00 [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal (daily, yuan/ton): 1,379.00 [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1,280.00 [2]. - JM main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): 178.00, down 33.00 [2]. - J main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): 26.00, down 42.00 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Fine coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants (daily, 10,000 tons): 16.90, down 7.40 [2]. - Fine coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants (weekly, 10,000 tons): 298.90, down 10.10 [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants (weekly, %): 0.23, down 0.10 [2]. - Raw coal output (monthly, 10,000 tons): 43,703.50, up 1,024.20 [2]. - Coal and lignite imports (monthly, 10,000 tons): 5,860.00, up 1,455.00 [2]. - Daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 151.60, up 43.00 [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly, 10,000 tons): 494.44, down 1.83 [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coke enterprises (weekly, 10,000 tons): 829.46, down 64.03 [2]. - Coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly, 10,000 tons): 261.70, down 2.16 [2]. - Coke inventory of all - sample independent coke enterprises (weekly, 10,000 tons): 62.19, up 6.67 [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly, 10,000 tons): 792.46, down 27.89 [2]. - Coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills (weekly, 10,000 tons): 675.11, down 13.50 [2]. - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coke enterprises (weekly, days): 12.65, down 0.41 [2]. - Available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills (weekly, days): 12.41, down 0.05 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Coking coal imports (monthly, 10,000 tons): 1,376.98, up 303.83 [2]. - Coke and semi - coke exports (monthly, 10,000 tons): 100.00, up 28.00 [2]. - Total coking coal supply (monthly, 10,000 tons): 5,478.50, up 238.93 [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises (weekly, %): 72.83, up 0.97 [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly, yuan/ton): - 7.00, up 1.00 [2]. - Coke output (monthly, 10,000 tons): 4,274.30, up 104.00 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly, %): 80.22, up 0.09 [2]. - Blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %): 87.45, up 1.04 [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly, 10,000 tons): 6,817.74, down 169.36 [2]. - According to Mysteel, the escalation of the Gulf situation has a limited direct impact and a significant indirect impact on China's steel exports. The short - term monthly export impact is about 116.24 tons. If the situation stagnates for more than three months, there is a risk of losing the Middle East market share [2]. - According to Mysteel, the construction industry has tight funds after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of work is progressing steadily. The overall capital situation of the industry is neutral to tight, with 11.54% of enterprises facing poor fund arrival; most enterprises are advancing the resumption of work as planned, and 9.62% of enterprises said the resumption progress is slow [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to CNN, a US senior official revealed on March 2 that the US is preparing for a "substantial increase" in attacks on Iran in the next 24 hours. The US believes that the first - round attacks have achieved the goal of weakening Iran's defense capabilities, and the next stage will focus on destroying Iran's missile production capacity, drones, and naval forces [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the raw material replenishment was insufficient, and the market was under pressure and weak. The overall raw material end was under pressure, the steel mills had insufficient motivation to replenish inventory, and the supply end gradually recovered after the festival. The coking coal showed a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The high inventory of iron ore created pressure for inventory accumulation, and the overall trend of the raw material end was weak. The short - term iron ore and coking coal and coke were in a low - level shock, and attention should be paid to the improvement of terminal demand and the impact of energy price increases [3][4][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - After the first week of the Spring Festival, the raw material end was under pressure. The steel mills had insufficient motivation to replenish inventory, and there was a production reduction expectation in North China, so the procurement was cautious. The supply end gradually recovered after the festival, and the coking coal showed a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The high inventory of iron ore created pressure for inventory accumulation, and the overall raw material end was weak [9]. - The prices of some steel products and raw materials changed. For example, the price of rebar in Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Linfen decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased [9]. 2. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 101.63 (up 3.11% month - on - month and 0.20% year - on - year). The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2713.3 million tons (up 28.30% month - on - month and 5.35% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2146.9 million tons (down 0.26% month - on - month and up 19.06% year - on - year) [18]. - **Demand**: The daily output of molten iron was 233.28 million tons (up 2.79 million tons month - on - month and 5.43 million tons year - on - year). The port clearance volume of 45 ports of iron ore was 298.48 million tons (down 15.01% month - on - month and 0.12% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 31.47 days (down 16.06% month - on - month and 2.45% year - on - year) [23]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports of iron ore was 17091.96 million tons (up 0.86% month - on - month and 17.25% year - on - year). The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9085.1 million tons (down 15.12% month - on - month and 0.90% year - on - year). The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 24.05 days (down 22.04% month - on - month and 4.34% year - on - year) [28]. 3. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The coking coal mine operating rate was 68.24% (up 39.58% month - on - month and down 19.62% year - on - year). The daily average of Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 18.17 million tons (up 82.88% month - on - month and 128.91% year - on - year). The capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 22.73% (down 29.58% month - on - month and 32.55% year - on - year) [33]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 7 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month and 33 yuan/ton year - on - year). The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 74.36% (up 2.02% month - on - month and 3.84% year - on - year). The capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 86.09% (down 0.28% month - on - month and 1.11% year - on - year) [40]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 893.36 million tons (down 20.11% month - on - month and up 30.24% year - on - year). The coking coal inventory of steel mills was 820.16 million tons (down 2.13% month - on - month and up 8.15% year - on - year). The coking coal port inventory was 271.97 million tons (up 5.25% month - on - month and down 34.64% year - on - year) [46]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 62.19 million tons (up 12.01% month - on - month and down 35.99% year - on - year). The coke inventory of steel mills was 675.11 million tons (down 1.96% month - on - month and 0.86% year - on - year). The coke port inventory was 197.1 million tons (down 0.98% month - on - month and up 3.66% year - on - year) [51]. - **Spot Price**: The ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1390 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month and up 80 yuan/ton year - on - year). The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1520 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 200 yuan/ton year - on - year) [54]. 4. Spread Analysis - The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continued to shrink, and the spread between iron ore 5 - 9 contracts slightly widened [56].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese A-share market, highlighting the performance of various sectors in February 2026, particularly in the context of rising AI capital expenditures and expectations of increased fiscal support from the government [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index and other indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite up by 0.1%, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 2.8%. The cyclical sectors, particularly energy, industrials, and materials, led the gains with a 5% increase each [4][6]. - **Investor Sentiment**: Despite robust travel and consumption data during the Spring Festival, investor skepticism remains regarding the sustainability of domestic consumption recovery. Travel numbers reached 596 million, with spending of 803 billion yuan, both up 19% year-on-year [4][6]. - **Liquidity Trends**: A-share liquidity slightly decreased due to profit-taking before the Spring Festival. The turnover rate dropped from approximately 6% in January to about 4% in February, although margin trading balances remained stable [4][20]. - **Sector Performance**: - **Top Performers**: Energy, industrials, and materials sectors performed well, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of fiscal policy support ahead of the National People's Congress [6][12]. - **Underperformers**: Communication services, financials, and healthcare sectors lagged, with declines of 4%, 2%, and 0% respectively, attributed to profit-taking and weak demand [7][12]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Economic Indicators**: The report notes that most economic activity data for January will be released in March to avoid distortions caused by the Spring Festival. The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4, the lowest in 37 months [4][40]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI growth slowed to 0.2% year-on-year, while PPI increased by 0.25%, marking the largest rise in 20 months, primarily due to rising commodity prices [4][42]. - **Funding Flows**: From January 26 to February 20, A-shares saw a net inflow of $392 million, mainly into materials, information technology, and financial sectors, while healthcare and real estate lagged [12][20]. Conclusion - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the Chinese A-share market's performance in February 2026, emphasizing the impact of fiscal policy expectations and geopolitical factors on sector performance. It highlights the mixed sentiment among investors regarding consumption recovery and the overall economic outlook, supported by key economic indicators and funding trends.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - geopolitical risks have suddenly increased, leading to a rise in market risk - aversion sentiment, but the domestic macro - environment is relatively warm with policy expectations remaining. In the industry, the five major steel products continued to accumulate inventory in the first week after the Spring Festival. Both rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a structure of decreasing production and increasing demand, and the overall inventory growth rate slowed down. Hot - rolled coils' short - term demand rebounded faster and may reach an inventory decline inflection point in one or two weeks. Rebar still has inventory accumulation pressure in the short term, but its supply - demand structure is expected to continuously improve. Supported by macro - expectations and the improvement of fundamentals, steel prices have room to rise at low levels. It is recommended to mainly adopt high - selling and low - buying strategies within the range. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In the first week after the Spring Festival, steel products continued to accumulate inventory, and steel prices bottomed out and rebounded. Terminal demand had not fully recovered, and the five major steel products still had seasonal inventory accumulation. Although the inventory growth of rebar and hot - rolled coils slowed down, the inventory accumulation pressure still suppressed prices. Driven by policy expectations, steel prices bottomed out and rebounded, but the upward space was limited. [9] 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Rebar weekly output was 165.1 tons (down 3.10% week - on - week and 20.05% year - on - year), and the national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 309.61 tons (down 0.06% week - on - week and 4.18% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace production decreased while electric furnace production remained stable. The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates both rebounded. The national blast furnace operating rate was 80.22% (up 0.11% week - on - week and 3.27% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 10.14% (up 2.94% week - on - week and down 83.99% year - on - year). [15][16][23] - **Profit**: Rebar profit was +24 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton week - on - week and 19 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was +2 yuan/ton (up 0.1 yuan/ton week - on - week and 0.3 yuan/ton year - on - year). [25] - **Demand**: The demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils rebounded after the Spring Festival. Rebar apparent consumption was 80.54 tons (up 95.67% week - on - week and down 57.77% year - on - year), the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 3.49 tons (down 51.40% week - on - week and 68.52% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 291.31 tons (up 18.07% week - on - week and down 9.62% year - on - year). [30] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory continued to accumulate, and the growth rate of factory and social inventories slowed down. Rebar factory inventory was 232.84 tons (up 5.32% week - on - week and down 0.61% year - on - year), social inventory was 567.76 tons (up 14.71% week - on - week and down 9.76% year - on - year), and total inventory was 800.6 tons (up 11.81% week - on - week and down 7.28% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil inventory growth narrowed, and social inventory remained at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 94.78 tons (up 1.50% week - on - week and 3.65% year - on - year), social inventory was 357.37 tons (up 4.96% week - on - week and 4.83% year - on - year), and total inventory was 452.15 tons (up 4.22% week - on - week and 3.85% year - on - year). [35][39] - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, land market transactions rebounded slightly from a low level. The weekly commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 92.37% week - on - week and 94.40% year - on - year, and the transaction land area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded by 15.32% week - on - week and decreased by 38.81% year - on - year. In the automotive market, in January 2026, automobile production increased slightly year - on - year while sales declined year - on - year. Automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively, with production increasing by 0.01% year - on - year and sales decreasing by 3.2% year - on - year. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.041 million and 0.945 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 2.5% and 0.1% respectively. In January, automobile exports were 681,000, with a year - on - year increase of 44.9%, and new energy vehicle exports were 302,000, doubling year - on - year. [42][45] 3.3 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted, the rebar 5 - 10 spread widened slightly, the coil - to - rebar spread continued to contract, and the iron ore 5 - 9 spread widened slightly. [47][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In February, the main indices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets showed mixed performance. The CSI 500 and the Small and Medium - cap Board Index led the gains with increases of over 3%, while the STAR 50 Index had the largest decline of 1.42%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries rose, with the top 5 gainers being comprehensive, steel, building materials, environmental protection, and machinery and equipment, and the top 5 decliners being media, commercial trade, non - banking finance, banking, and pharmaceutical biology [1][14]. - In January 2026, the total number of new individual investor accounts opened in the market reached 4.9058 million, and the number of new institutional investor accounts was 10,600. Individual investor enthusiasm further increased, while institutional investor activity declined [2][21]. - In February, 28 new funds were issued with a total scale of 17.847 billion yuan. The issuance of active equity funds and passive equity funds was 3.354 billion shares and 2.928 billion shares respectively, and the issuance of active equity funds decreased significantly compared to the previous month. Overall, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the overall issuance rhythm slowed down [3][35]. - In February, except for QDII and commodity - type funds, other types of funds rose to varying degrees. The average increase of equity - biased funds was the largest, at 1.15%. Among different - style funds, the small - cap value style had the largest increase of 4.41%, and the large - cap growth style had the smallest increase of about 0.31% [3][41]. - By calculating the average returns of equity - biased public funds of different scales last month, it can be seen that the mini - funds with a scale of 50 - 100 million yuan had the largest average increase of 1.31%, with a positive - return ratio of 64.75%. Only the super - large funds with a scale of over 10 billion yuan declined, with a decline of 0.33% and a positive - return ratio of 38.71% [3][49]. - Through the calculation of the industry positions of active equity funds, in February, the industries with the highest increase in positions were media, building materials, and comprehensive, and the industries with the highest reduction in positions were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - ferrous metals. As of February 27, 2026, the overall position of active equity funds was 77.23%, an increase of 3.13 percentage points from the previous month [4][52]. - In February, the net outflow of funds from ETFs was 21.106 billion yuan. At the individual - bond level, many broad - based index ETFs showed a trend of capital outflow. Among the most actively traded targets on a daily - average basis, the Grid Equipment ETF, Machine Tool ETF, Rare Earth ETF E Fund, Shipbuilding ETF, and Oil and Gas ETF Huatai - PineBridge had the highest increases of 10.1% - 14.5%; the E Fund China Concept Internet ETF, Huatai - PineBridge Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF, Puyin Game and Media ETF, Artificial Intelligence 50 ETF, and Silver Fund New Economy ETF had the highest declines of 7.3% - 14.0%. In terms of capital flow, the Hang Seng Tech ETF, Satellite ETF, Cathay Gold ETF, Grid Equipment ETF, and Securities ETF had the highest net inflows, and the Southern CSI 500 ETF, Huatai - PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, Southern CSI 1000 ETF, Non - Ferrous Metals ETF Fund, and Huaxia SSE 50 ETF had the highest net outflows [5][60]. - In February, the risk - parity model declined by 0.23%, and the risk - budget model declined by 0.48%. Since 2015, the annualized return of the risk - parity model has been 6.32% with a maximum drawdown of 1.29%, and the annualized return of the risk - budget model has been 8.08% with a maximum drawdown of 2.35%. Next month, the asset - allocation weights of the models remain unchanged [6][70]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Domestic Market Situation - In February, the main stock indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets showed mixed performance. The CSI 500 and the Small and Medium - cap Board Index led the gains with increases of over 3%, and the STAR 50 Index had the largest decline of 1.42%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries rose, with the top 5 gainers being comprehensive, steel, building materials, environmental protection, and machinery and equipment, and the top 5 decliners being media, commercial trade, non - banking finance, banking, and pharmaceutical biology [1][14]. - The ChinaBond Composite Total Return Index rose 0.01%, the ChinaBond Treasury Bond, Financial Bond, and Credit Bond Total Return Indices ranged from a decline of 0.02% to an increase of 0.14%, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.89%, and the Nanhua Commodity Index fell 1.32% [14]. - In January 2026, the total number of new individual investor accounts opened in the market reached 4.9058 million, and the number of new institutional investor accounts was 10,600. Individual investor enthusiasm further increased, while institutional investor activity declined [2][21]. - The new - filing scale of private securities investment funds in December increased month - on - month to 54.174 billion yuan, and the existing scale continued to expand, reaching 22.15 trillion yuan as of that month, remaining at a historically high level [22]. 3.2 European, American, and Asia - Pacific Market Situation In February, most of the main indices in the European, American, and Asia - Pacific markets rose. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 declined by 2.13%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.13%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index declined by 3.38%. In the European market, the French CAC 40 rose by 5.59%, and the German DAX rose by 3.04%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index declined by 2.76%, and the Nikkei 225 rose by 10.37% [27]. 3.3 Market Valuation Situation - In February, the valuations of the main market indices showed mixed trends. In terms of the historical percentile of price - to - earnings ratio, the CSI All - Share Index led the increase with a rise of 5.4 percentage points. In terms of the historical percentile of price - to - book ratio, the CSI 1000 Index led the increase with a rise of 5.2 percentage points [30]. - Among industries, the top five industries with the highest historical percentile of price - to - earnings ratio of the Shenwan primary index last month were real estate, electronics, building materials, comprehensive, and chemical. The price - to - earnings ratio percentile of the real estate industry was at a high level, and that of the electronics industry reached 96.9%. The bottom five industries with the lowest historical percentile of price - to - earnings ratio were non - banking finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, beauty care, and pharmaceutical biology, where the valuation of the non - banking finance industry was close to its historical low since 2013 [30]. 3.4 Public Fund Overall Situation 3.4.1 Fund Issuance Situation In February, 28 new funds were issued with a total scale of 17.847 billion yuan. Affected by holidays, the issuance rhythm slowed down. Among them, 10 equity funds were issued with a scale of 2.939 billion yuan, 9 hybrid funds were issued with a scale of 3.344 billion yuan, 3 bond funds were issued with a scale of 2.459 billion yuan, and 6 FOF funds were issued with a scale of 9.106 billion yuan. The issuance of active equity funds and passive equity funds was 3.354 billion shares and 2.928 billion shares respectively, and the issuance of active equity funds decreased significantly compared to the previous month [35]. 3.4.2 Fund Market Return Situation - In February, except for QDII and commodity - type funds, other types of funds rose to varying degrees. The average increase of equity - biased funds was the largest, at 1.15% [39]. - Different - style funds showed differentiated performance. The value style outperformed the growth style, and the small - and medium - cap styles outperformed the large - cap style. The small - cap value style had the largest increase of 4.41%, and the large - cap growth style had the smallest increase of about 0.31% [41]. - By calculating the average returns of equity - biased public funds of different scales last month, it can be seen that the mini - funds with a scale of 50 - 100 million yuan had the largest average increase of 1.31%, with a positive - return ratio of 64.75%. Only the super - large funds with a scale of over 10 billion yuan declined, with a decline of 0.33% and a positive - return ratio of 38.71% [49]. 3.4.3 Active Equity Fund Position Situation - In February, the industries with the highest increase in positions of active equity funds were media, building materials, and comprehensive, and the industries with the highest reduction in positions were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - ferrous metals [52]. - As of February 27, 2026, the overall position of active equity funds was 77.23%, an increase of 3.13 percentage points from the previous month [54]. 3.5 ETF Fund Situation - In February, the net outflow of funds from ETFs was 21.106 billion yuan. Among them, the net outflow of equity ETFs was 90.586 billion yuan, the net inflow of cross - border ETFs was 47.433 billion yuan, and the net inflow of bond ETFs was 7.818 billion yuan. In terms of liquidity, the average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market this period reached 518.894 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume reached 186.344 billion shares. The average daily turnover rate was 8.12%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points from January [59]. - At the individual - bond level, many broad - based index ETFs showed a trend of capital outflow. Among the most actively traded targets on a daily - average basis, the Grid Equipment ETF, Machine Tool ETF, Rare Earth ETF E Fund, Shipbuilding ETF, and Oil and Gas ETF Huatai - PineBridge had the highest increases of 10.1% - 14.5%; the E Fund China Concept Internet ETF, Huatai - PineBridge Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF, Puyin Game and Media ETF, Artificial Intelligence 50 ETF, and Silver Fund New Economy ETF had the highest declines of 7.3% - 14.0%. In terms of capital flow, the Hang Seng Tech ETF, Satellite ETF, Cathay Gold ETF, Grid Equipment ETF, and Securities ETF had the highest net inflows, and the Southern CSI 500 ETF, Huatai - PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, Southern CSI 1000 ETF, Non - Ferrous Metals ETF Fund, and Huaxia SSE 50 ETF had the highest net outflows [60]. 3.6 Model Operation Situation - Four types of large - asset allocation models were constructed using stocks, bonds, commodities, and QDII assets. Among them, the first two are fixed - ratio models, and the ratios of the latter two models are adjusted monthly based on 24 - month data [66]. - In February, the risk - parity model declined by 0.23%, and the risk - budget model declined by 0.48%. Since 2015, the annualized return of the risk - parity model has been 6.32% with a maximum drawdown of 1.29%, and the annualized return of the risk - budget model has been 8.08% with a maximum drawdown of 2.35% [6][70]. - Next month, the asset - allocation weights of the models remain unchanged. For the risk - parity model, the ratio of stocks: bonds: commodities: QDII is 7%: 69%: 11%: 13%; for the risk - budget model, the ratio is 14%: 49%: 8%: 28% [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of steel products is bullish. Last week, the futures market fluctuated and consolidated. Hot metal production increased slightly, the total output of five major steel products decreased slightly week-on-week, inventories accumulated, and apparent demand declined, which was in line with seasonal trends. The divergence between hot metal and steel mill production data was mainly due to the slow recovery of the operating rate of electric arc furnace steel mills affected by poor profitability. Both rebar and hot-rolled coils reduced production and accumulated inventories. The profits of long-process steel mills recovered, while the off-peak electricity profits of short-process steel mills declined slightly, and the scrap-iron price difference widened. After the Spring Festival holiday, the market is focusing on the Two Sessions in March, and current market rumors mainly concern the supply side. The prices of raw materials in the futures market fluctuated downward, with a significant decline in iron ore prices, and the market is paying attention to the first round of coke price cuts. In terms of strategies, more attention can be paid to positions related to steel mill profits [3]. - The rebar spread is neutral. The 5 - 10 month spread of rebar is -33 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening week-on-week [3]. - Steel mill profits are bullish. This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, a slight increase week-on-week but still significantly lower than the same period last year [3][12]. - Scrap steel is neutral. According to calculations, the current on-peak electricity production of East China electric arc furnace steel mills results in a loss of 150 yuan/ton, and the off-peak electricity production results in a loss of 57 yuan/ton [3]. - Finished steel inventories are neutral. The five major steel products are seasonally accumulating inventories [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of February 27, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 2.3328 million tons, a slight increase of 28,000 tons week-on-week, higher than the same period last year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises nationwide was 80.22%, a slight increase week-on-week, and the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces was 7.35%, a significant decline week-on-week [12]. - This week, the total output of the five major steel products was 7.9677 million tons, a decrease of 79,800 tons from last week. Among them, the rebar output was 1.651 million tons, a decrease of 52,800 tons from last week; the hot-rolled coil output was 3.0961 million tons, a slight decrease of 2,000 tons from last week; the output of cold-rolled and medium-thick plates increased slightly, and both were significantly higher than the historical average [21]. - In terms of demand, the total consumption of the five major steel products this week was 5.6465 million tons, a significant decline week-on-week. The weekly consumption of rebar was 1.4764 million tons, a slight increase week-on-week, and the consumption of hot-rolled coils was 2.913 million tons, a significant increase week-on-week [41]. - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet-rolling factories was 530,000 tons, a slight accumulation week-on-week, close to the same period last year. The billet inventory in mainstream warehouses was 2.3389 million tons, a significant accumulation week-on-week, reaching the highest level in history [70]. 3.2 Valuation - Rebar warehouse receipts decreased slightly, lower than the same period last year. Hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts increased slightly week-on-week, slightly higher than the same period last year [97]. 3.3 Balance Sheet The report provides a monthly balance sheet for crude steel from July 2025 to June 2026, including data on initial and final inventories, production, imports, exports, consumption, and surplus. It also shows year-on-year and cumulative year-on-year changes in production and consumption [99].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The steel market shows a weak trend. The conflict between the US and Iran affects the passage of the Hormuz Strait, reducing the expected steel export volume and suppressing the market performance. The upcoming Two Sessions may also interfere with the demand - side expectations. Although the steel valuation is not high, the supply - demand outlook is not strong. Attention should be paid to the support levels of 3,020 yuan/ton for rebar and 3,200 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts show various changes. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,190 yuan/ton, 3,120 yuan/ton, and 3,240 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 10 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets remains unchanged at 2,910 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increases by 2 yuan/ton to 3,233 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increases by 10 yuan/ton to 33 yuan/ton [1]. - **Output**: The daily average pig iron output increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase). The output of five major steel products decreases by 8.0 to 796.8 (- 1.0% decrease), and the rebar output decreases by 5.3 to 165.1 (- 3.1% decrease) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increases by 134.3 to 1,846.1 (7.8% increase). The rebar inventory increases by 84.6 to 800.6 (11.8% increase), and the hot - rolled coil inventory increases by 18.3 to 452.2 (4.2% increase) [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreases by 0.6 to 2.2 (- 20.6% decrease), and the apparent demand for five major steel products increases by 29.0 to 564.7 (5.4% increase). The apparent rebar demand decreases by 7.6 to 33.6 (- 18.5% decrease), and the apparent hot - rolled coil demand increases by 21.6 to 268.4 (8.8% increase) [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The iron ore market is under pressure in the short term, but there is also resistance to further price decline. The conflict between the US and Iran affects shipping and freight costs. The supply pressure persists, and the demand recovery needs to be verified. The inventory situation shows that the port inventory increases slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreases significantly. Short - term ore prices may fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to consider short - selling after a rebound [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost of various iron ore powders shows different changes. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of lower - grade powder increases by 6.5 to 854.4 (0.8% increase). The 05 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changes, with the 05 - contract basis of PB powder decreasing by 2.9 to 51.7 (- 5.3% decrease) [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume in the week decreases by 5.5 to 2,146.9 (- 0.3% decrease), and the national monthly import volume increases by 19.8 to 3,340.7 (0.6% increase) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills in the week increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase), and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume in the week decreases by 52.7 to 298.5 (- 15.0% decrease) [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increases by 145.6 to 17,091.96 (0.9% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills in the week decreases by 1,618.8 to 9,085.1 (- 15.1% decrease) [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Coke**: The coke futures rebounded slightly. The supply - side profit is restored to near the break - even point, and the production increases slightly. The demand - side replenishment demand is weak. The overall inventory is slightly decreased, and the supply - demand is basically balanced in the short term. It is advisable to view the market as oscillatory, with a reference range of 1,550 - 1,750 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures showed an oscillatory trend. The spot auction prices in Shanxi decreased. The supply - side production will gradually increase after the Spring Festival, and the import coal inventory accumulates. The demand - side production increases slightly, and the replenishment demand is limited after the Spring Festival. The overall inventory decreases seasonally. It is advisable to view the market as oscillatory, with a reference range of 1,000 - 1,150 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory Coke - **Coke - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remain unchanged. The coke 05 - contract price increases by 17 to 1,652 (1.0% increase) [7]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increases by 0.6 to 64.3 (0.9% increase), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreases by 0.1 to 47.1 (- 0.3% decrease) [7]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase) [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreases by 7.9 to 980.0 (- 0.8% decrease), the inventory of all - sample coking plants increases by 7.5 to 107.8 (7.5% increase), and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreases by 13.5 to 675.1 (- 2.0% decrease) [7]. - **Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap decreases by 0.9 to - 1.6 (- 59.4% decrease) [7]. Coking Coal - **Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains unchanged, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increases by 4 to 1,152 (0.3% increase). The coking coal 05 - contract price remains unchanged, and the 09 - contract price decreases by 6 to 1,189 (0.5% decrease) [7]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreases by 144.1 to 840.4 (- 17.1% decrease), and the clean coal output decreases by 74.4 to 423.9 (- 17.54% decrease) [7]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coke production. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increases by 0.6 to 63.7 (0.9% increase), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreases by 0.1 to 47.2 (- 0.34% decrease) [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreases by 3.1 to 124.1 (- 2.5% decrease), the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreases by 80.2 to 1,079.1 (- 7.4% decrease), and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreases by 27.9 to 792.5 (- 3.4% decrease) [7]. Group 4: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. The supply increases slightly after the Spring Festival, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, and the total inventory is moderately low. The cost of blue charcoal decreases slightly, and the production profit in Ningxia is the best. The short - term supply - demand is tight, and the price may face pressure near the export cost. It is advisable to wait and see due to frequent overseas macro - changes and the approaching Two Sessions [8]. - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese futures continued to rise in a "V" - shaped trend. The supply increases slightly, and the production volume is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The demand is expected to improve marginally, and the inventory accumulates significantly last week. The cost of manganese ore is firm, and the supply - demand situation restricts the price increase space. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the cost pressure in Guizhou and the 5 - 9 spread [8]. Summary by Directory Ferrosilicon - **Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increases by 38 to 5,764. The spot - prices in different regions increase to varying degrees, such as the 72%FeSi spot price in Inner Mongolia increasing by 50 to 5,330 [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increases by 17.2 to 6,019.6 (0.3% increase), and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increases by 32.8 to - 269.6 (- 10.8% increase) [8]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferrosilicon production is 98 (unchanged), and the operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises decreases by 0.1% to 28.3 [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Mysteel) is 18 (unchanged), and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase) [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises increases by 0.4 to 7.2 (0.94% increase), and the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory is 18.7 days [8]. Ferromanganese - **Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increases by 56 to 6,026. The spot - prices in different regions increase to varying degrees, such as the FeMn65Si17 spot price in Inner Mongolia increasing by 50 to 5,750 [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged at 5,500. The manganese ore supply shows that the weekly manganese ore shipping volume decreases by 22.8 to 77.8 (- 22.7% decrease) [8]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferromanganese production increases by 0.4 to 19.7 (1.8% increase) [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferromanganese demand (calculated by Mysteel) decreases by 0.1 to 11.0 (- 1.3% decrease) [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increases by 0.3 to 39.8 (0.94% increase), and the average available days of ferromanganese inventory is 2.0 days [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the performance of various asset classes in the week from February 24th to February 27th, 2026. The equity market showed overall recovery, the convertible bond market declined, the bond market mostly weakened, and commodity futures mostly strengthened. Different market segments were affected by various factors such as policy changes, external trade environment, and geopolitical risks [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Performance of Major Asset Classes - The equity market showed overall recovery. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.98% to 4162.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.8% to 14495.09 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.05% to 3310.3 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges totaled 9.69 trillion yuan. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.82% to 26630.54 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.41% to 5137.84 points [9]. - The convertible bond market declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.24% in the past week, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index fell 0.34%. In the past month, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.9%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.26% [9]. - The bond market mostly weakened. The yields of 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 30-year China Bond Treasury bonds increased by 0.71bp, 0.84bp, 1.33bp, 2.36bp, and 4.36bp respectively, while the 10-year yield decreased by 0.22bp [9]. - Commodity futures mostly strengthened, with silver performing strongly. COMEX gold rose 3.24%, COMEX silver rose 11.61%, LME copper rose 2.28%, LME aluminum rose 1.16%, WTI crude oil rose 0.81%, SHFE rebar rose 0.98%, CBOT soybeans rose 1.41%, and CBOT corn rose 1.88% [10]. 3.2 Performance of the Equity Market - Stocks - The equity market rose this week, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming. Most industries rose, with cyclical sectors such as steel and non-ferrous metals leading the gains. The media, consumer services, and non-bank financial sectors led the declines. The media sector fell 5.21%, consumer services fell 4.14%, and non-bank financials fell 3.21%. The steel sector rose 9.52%, and the comprehensive financial sector rose 2.17% [14]. - Market rotation was still active this week. The market style switched again. Benefiting from post-holiday resumption of work and production, cyclical and resource sectors led the gains, while the consumer sector was relatively weak. In addition, technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and chips also performed well [14]. - The reasons for the market performance are that the trading volume increased in the first week after the holiday, and the trading activity improved. Since the beginning of this year, the prices of many commodities have continued to rise. On the one hand, driven by the expansion of AI-related demand, the prosperity of sub - sectors such as chips and electronic cloth has increased, and prices have strengthened. On the other hand, the prices of resources such as gold and silver have also risen to varying degrees. Under the combined effect of rising product prices and improved profit expectations, relevant fields have strengthened synchronously. In the steel sector, many steel enterprises announced a "good start" in production in the first month of this year, and the production and sales indicators of some steel enterprises performed well, enhancing the investment confidence in the sector [14]. 3.3 Performance of the Equity Market - Convertible Bonds - The equity market rose this week, while the convertible bond market fell. As of February 27, 2026, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.24%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index fell 0.34%. In the past month, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.9%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.26%. The trading volumes of convertible bonds and underlying stocks this week were 2945.06 billion yuan and 5968.85 billion yuan respectively, and the trading activity of both underlying stocks and convertible bonds declined compared with before the holiday [16]. - The convertible bond market was weak this week, lagging behind the overall stock market performance. The resource and pro - cyclical sectors of A - shares showed obvious upward trends, while some high - valuation technology and growth stocks were under pressure. At the same time, the trading volume of convertible bonds decreased, which may have had a certain impact on the convertible bond market [16]. 3.4 Performance of the Fixed - Income Market - The bond market yields generally increased this week, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreasing. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 30 - year China Bond Treasury bonds increased by 0.71bp, 0.84bp, 1.33bp, 2.36bp, and 4.36bp respectively, while the 10 - year yield decreased by 0.22bp [18]. - During the Spring Festival, the US tariff policy fluctuated again, increasing the uncertainty of the external trade environment and affecting the market risk appetite, which had a certain impact on the short - term bond market. On February 25th, Shanghai issued the "Seven Measures for Shanghai" real estate optimization policy, which adjusted the purchase restrictions, housing provident fund use, and property tax, etc. The policy was aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and expectations. Affected by the policy's boost to the real estate chain sentiment, the risk appetite for equities was marginally repaired, and the bond market was under pressure [18]. - In terms of the capital side, on February 25th, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations. From the perspective of the operation intensity and reverse repurchase scale, the monetary policy continued to be relatively loose, and the attitude of maintaining liquidity was stable. Especially before the Two Sessions, the policy orientation of stabilizing the capital side is expected to continue, and the capital price is likely to remain in a reasonable range and be generally stable. In the future, although the bond market sentiment has improved compared with before, there are not enough incremental factors to drive the yield to break through the oscillation range effectively. Before there is a new dominant variable, the market's long and short forces are still relatively balanced, and the bond market is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [19]. 3.5 Performance of the Commodity Market - The Nanhua Commodity Index strengthened overall this week, with precious metals performing strongly. The index rose 3.56% in total. Precious metals led the gains, rising 8.55% compared with the week before the Spring Festival. Metals rose 3.06%, industrial products rose 2.47%, energy and chemicals rose 2.14%, and agricultural products rose 1.19% [27]. - The gold price continued to rise this week and remained at a high level. The uncertainty of the US - Iran situation and the variable policy orientation of the Trump administration have increased the external geopolitical risk premium. At the same time, the short - term rebound of international oil prices and the creation of a new stage high have strengthened the market's re - pricing expectations for inflation and the energy supply - demand pattern, driving the precious metal and energy sectors to strengthen synchronously. In the future, the evolution of the geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and there are also significant differences in the Fed's policy path. It is expected that gold will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term [28][30].

Production Side - In February, the average operating rate of 247 blast furnaces was 79.98%, slightly up but still weak[3] - The operating rates for electric furnaces, rebar, and cement mills were 36.96%, 33.21%, and 19.28%, respectively, all lower than the previous month[3] - Inventory levels for rebar, cold-rolled, hot-rolled, iron ore, and float glass increased, with month-on-month growth rates of 24.59%, 9.23%, 11.37%, 2.44%, and 13.35%[3] Demand Side - In February, the average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 32.84% year-on-year, while land transaction area in 100 cities fell by 0.89%[4] - The average weekly express delivery volume was 3.079 billion pieces, down 24.56% month-on-month, while movie box office revenue increased by 192.32% to 1.476 billion yuan[4] - The average number of domestic flights was 14,855, up 15.27% month-on-month[4] Price Side - The agricultural product wholesale price index rose by 0.02% month-on-month and 5.03% year-on-year[5] - Chemical product prices increased by 0.78% month-on-month but decreased by 7.25% year-on-year[5] - The price of lithium carbonate surged by 117.95% year-on-year, while the price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon increased by 19.98% year-on-year[6]