Consumption - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes continue to rise, but year-on-year growth has marginally declined due to the low base effect from the Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - Service consumption has weakened, particularly in urban areas affected by typhoon weather, leading to a significant drop in subway ridership in first-tier cities[7] - Food and beverage prices have shown a slight recovery, with agricultural product wholesale prices increasing, but the year-on-year decline continues to widen due to high base effects from 2024[6] Investment - As of September 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.71 trillion, with CNY 446.52 billion issued in September alone, marking the fastest issuance pace since 2020[19] - Real estate sales have seen a slight seasonal improvement, but the absolute values remain at historical lows, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a marginal year-on-year decline[19] - The asphalt construction rate has risen significantly, reaching a yearly high, while cement and steel consumption indicate slower construction progress[19] Trade and Export - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, with container freight rates from Shanghai and Ningbo dropping by 7% and 8.5% respectively[27] - The manufacturing PMI readings for the US and Europe in September were 52.0 and 49.5, indicating a slight decline in overseas manufacturing activity, which may weaken demand for imports from China[27] Production and Inventory - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with coal consumption in coastal provinces showing a seasonal decrease[29] - Inventory levels are primarily decreasing, with significant reductions in coal inventories at ports due to increased downstream purchasing ahead of the holiday[37] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight recovery, with service prices in transportation, education, and healthcare increasing year-on-year, while clothing and housing prices have declined[42] - Industrial product prices are mixed, with the South China price index falling by 0.3% month-on-month, while cement prices increased by 2.5%[42] Liquidity - The central bank's net cash injection through reverse repos was CNY 640.6 billion last week, with an additional CNY 300 billion in medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, totaling CNY 880.6 billion to support liquidity[44] - The US dollar index has risen significantly, reflecting a stronger US economy and impacting the USD/CNY exchange rate, which increased from 7.1125 to 7.1345[44]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 09 29 年 月 日 固定收益定期 食品和生产资料价格均有所回落——基本面高频数据跟踪 本期国盛基本面高频指数为 127.9 点（前值为 127.8 点），当周同比 增加 5.8 点（前值为增加 5.7 点），同比增幅扩大。利率债多空信号不 变，信号因子为 5.0%（前值为 5.0%）。 生产方面，工业生产高频指数为 127.1，前值为 127.0，当周同比增加 5.4 点（前值为增加 5.3 点），同比增幅扩大。 总需求方面，商品房销售高频指数为 42.5，前值为 42.6，当周同比下 降 6.2 点（前值为下降 6.3 点），同比降幅收窄；基建投资高频指数为 121.3，前值为 121.2，当周同比增加 7.3 点（前值为增加 6.9 点）， 同比增幅扩大；出口高频指数为 143.7，前值为 143.7，当周同比增加 1.8 点（前值为增加 2.0 点），同比增幅收窄；消费高频指数为 120.4， 前值为 120.4，当周同比增加 3.5 点（前值为增加 3.4 点），同比增幅 扩大。 物价方面，CPI 月环比预测为 0.2%（（前值 ...

华夏时报记者刘昱汝徐芸茜北京报道 日前，国资委主任张玉卓主持召开部分国有企业经济运行座谈会，了解企业经济运行情况、面临的困难挑战。会议聚焦稳电价、稳煤价、防止"内卷式"恶 性竞争等核心议题，听取企业意见建议，旨在进一步研究夯实企业高质量发展基础的政策举措。 张玉卓在会上强调，要带头坚决抵制"内卷式"竞争，坚定走差异化发展和品牌竞争路线，强化行业自律，引导行业健康、良性、可持续发展，构建竞合并 存、开放共享的产业生态。此次会议释放出国资委引导国有企业特别是能源类国企稳价保供、抵制恶性竞争、推动高质量发展的明确信号。 稳煤价、稳电价 今年7月，中央财经委员会和政治局会议进一步明确，要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能退出。这意味着，"反内卷"已经不仅是口号，而 是有了具体的治理抓手。 "今年煤炭市场价格大幅回落，在行业利润大幅下降背景下，东部老矿区部分煤炭企业亏损严重，需引起高度重视。"中国煤炭工业协会党委委员张宏在7 月的2025年夏季全国煤炭交易会上表示。 而在4月2日发布的《中共中央办公厅，国务院办公厅关于完善价格治理机制的意见》中，也有多项内容关注完善煤炭价格。其中，在深化价格市场化改革 方面，提 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Industrial Holdings (00363) is recognized as a stable growth stock in infrastructure and consumer sectors, attracting investor attention due to high dividends and low valuations [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, the company reported revenue of HKD 9.476 billion and a net profit of HKD 1.042 billion, with infrastructure and consumer goods contributing significantly to the earnings [1] - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.42 per share, with a payout ratio of 43.8% and a dividend yield of 6.4% [1] Business Segments - The infrastructure segment, which includes toll roads, water services, and clean energy, contributed 92% of the net profit, with toll roads being a major cash cow [2] - The consumer goods segment, including Nanyang Tobacco and Yongfa Printing, showed a revenue growth of 20.23% from 2023 to 2025, with a profit contribution of HKD 403 million, reflecting a 26% year-on-year increase [3][4] Strategic Moves - The company successfully exited from Yuefeng Environmental, recovering HKD 4 billion in cash, which was deemed the optimal choice for maximizing shareholder value [3] - The company is actively exploring new investment opportunities in the health sector and has a cash reserve of HKD 28.5 billion, indicating strong financial health [4][6] Financial Strength - The company has reduced its net debt ratio from 65.12% at the end of 2024 to 60.99%, with total interest-bearing debt decreasing to HKD 58.51 billion [6] - Operating cash flow for 2023 and 2024 is projected at HKD 4.355 billion and HKD 4.813 billion, respectively, allowing for a healthy investment cycle [6] Valuation Perspective - The company is considered undervalued, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.3 and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 5.5, compared to higher averages in its sectors [7] - Despite a 98% increase in market value over the past three years, the company is still seen as having significant room for valuation recovery [8]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Industrial Holdings (00363) is recognized as a stable growth stock in infrastructure and consumer sectors, attracting investor attention due to its high dividends and low valuation [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of HKD 9.476 billion and a net profit of HKD 1.042 billion for the first half of the year, with infrastructure and consumer goods contributing significantly to the earnings [1] - The infrastructure and environmental protection sectors contributed a net profit of HKD 933 million and HKD 403 million, respectively [1] - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.42 per share, with a payout ratio of 43.8% and a dividend yield of 6.4% [1] Business Segments - The infrastructure segment, which includes toll roads, water services, and clean energy, contributed 92% of the net profit, with toll roads being a major cash cow [2] - The toll road segment generated a net profit of HKD 548 million in the first half, while water services contributed HKD 344 million and HKD 120 million from two wastewater treatment businesses [2] - The consumer goods segment, including Nanyang Tobacco and Yongfa Printing, showed a revenue of HKD 1.9 billion, accounting for 20.05% of total revenue, with a profit contribution of HKD 403 million, reflecting a 26% year-on-year increase [3][4] Strategic Developments - The company exited its investment in Yuefeng Environmental, recovering HKD 4 billion in cash, which was deemed the optimal choice for maximizing shareholder value [3] - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in overseas markets for Nanyang Tobacco, with over 60% of revenue coming from international sales [4] - The company is exploring new growth opportunities in the health sector, with a significant cash reserve of HKD 28.5 billion available for investments [4][5] Financial Health - The company has improved its net debt ratio from 65.12% at the end of 2024 to 60.99%, with interest-bearing debt decreasing to HKD 58.51 billion [6] - The company reported operating cash flows of HKD 4.355 billion and HKD 4.813 billion for 2023 and 2024, respectively, resulting in a net inflow of HKD 9.168 billion [6] Valuation Insights - The company is considered undervalued, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.3, compared to 0.9 for the railway and road sectors [7] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio stands at 5.5, significantly lower than the industry averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery [7][8] - The company has consistently paid dividends, with a total of HKD 21.838 billion distributed since 2000, maintaining a high payout ratio even during challenging periods [7]

本报讯 （记者贺王娟）9月23日，中国交通建设集团有限公司（以下简称"中交集团"）上市公司举办"新质生产力赋能高质 量发展"集体反向路演活动。中交集团所属多家上市公司围绕新质生产力在超级工程中的实践与全产业链协同成果进行，与中 信证券、广发证券、中金公司、申万宏源等证券研究机构的分析师和投资者进行现场交流。 机构代表结合实地见闻踊跃发言，从技术突破、产业价值、行业引领等多维度给予积极评价和建议。对于未来发展，机构 代表们形成共识，中交集团在深地工程、智能装备、绿色环保等领域的技术储备将加速转化为市场竞争力。短期来看，超级工 程中的技术突破将快速复制到铁路、跨海通道等同类项目，提升行业建设效率与品质；长期而言，全产业链协同创新模式将推 动基建行业从"规模扩张"向"质量效益"转型，为交通强国建设与共建"一带一路"高质量发展提供更坚实的支撑。 当前，中交集团正按照"三个六"战略框架，全面开启高质量发展新征程，围绕建设"五全四大五型"新中交，持续强化科技 创新，加速培育新质生产力。此次反向路演让资本市场看到，新质生产力正在为基建行业注入全新动能，中交集团的实践探 索，正为行业高质量发展勾勒出可复制、可推广的清晰路径。 ...

建筑装饰 2025 年 09 月 28 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-1.51%，沪深 300 指数+1.07%，相对收益为-2.58pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为 专业工程（ +1.06% ）、基建民企（ +0.91% ） 、 设 计 咨 询 （+0.41%），对应行业内三个公司：海波重科（17.25%）、诚邦股份 （11.28%）、华建集团（23.17%）；年涨幅最大的三个子行业分别是 基建民企（ +57.85% ） 、 生 态 园 林 （ +32.82% ） 、 专 业 工 程 （+31.39%），对应行业内 ...

"十五五"深度报告：新发展阶段宏观环境的变化 20250924 区域经济协调发展。 中国要素环境有哪些关键变化？ 要素环境中最关键的是人口要素的变化。从 2010 年至 2020 年，中国人口增 速开始下行，自 2020 年起总人口规模面临下降压力。同时，老年人口占比上 升，新生儿和青少年人口占比下降，适龄劳动人口（15-64 岁）也呈现趋势性 下行。这种结构性变化使得中国从原来劳动力资源充裕的环境过渡到少子化、 老龄化及劳动人口比例走低的新阶段。这对经济发展的影响深远，需要通过政 策调整应对劳动力供给减少的问题。 如何应对老龄化带来的经济挑战，并在经济发展中与人口结构变化相匹配？ 应对老龄化带来的经济挑战，需要在多个方面进行战略调整。首先，随着高等 教育的普及，中国的教育水平和劳动力素质显著提升，高校毕业生数量，包括 本科生、研究生和博士生数量在过去十年中快速增长。因此，在人口红利动能 减弱的情况下，应依托高素质劳动力发挥人才红利。过去五年，科教兴国战略 取得显著进展，未来五年科技和人才将成为中长期发展的重要方向。 此外，从 产业发展角度来看，中国正在从工业化向科技化跃迁，从城镇化向城乡融合升 级。在要素环 ...

凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行，本届论坛 以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 魏建国表示，全球经贸新格局正呈现出"六化"并存的复杂的态势： 一、集团化和碎片化并存。区域贸易协定已成为贸易大国划分势力范围的核心工具。例如，《区域全面 经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）已覆盖全球30%以上的GDP，区域内90%的关税已归零，推动中国对东 盟出口增长9%。与此同时，一些排他性协定如《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）等， 也通过特定条款强化了区域性贸易壁垒，加剧了全球经贸的碎片化。 二、多极化和双边化并存。全球经贸力量分布趋向多极化，主要经济体之间双边贸易协定的签署日益活 跃，形成多层次、多方向的合作网络。 论坛期间，商务部原副部长、中国国际经济交流中心资深专家咨询委员会委员魏建国以"展开双臂拥抱 世界经济新格局"为题发表主旨演讲。 魏建国表示，如今是一个充满变革与机遇的时代，全球经贸格局正在经历着深刻重塑，人们需要以全新 的视野和勇气，展开双臂拥抱这个崭新的世界。 机遇方面，新兴市场崛起为中国企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery of domestic cyclical product prices and the improvement in service consumption, indicating a positive trend in the overall economic environment [2][3]. Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 20.3% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing growth rates of 68.8%, 21.7%, and -19.9% respectively [3]. - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 1.0% year-on-year, with a slowdown in price competition and a slight recovery in sales growth [3]. - The service consumption index in Hainan rose by 1.3% month-on-month, with significant increases in movie box office revenues, which surged by 364.6% month-on-month and 149.0% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand showed marginal improvement, with steel and glass prices slightly rising, and cement prices stabilizing [4]. - Manufacturing activity improved, with increased operating rates in the automotive and chemical sectors, and stable hiring intentions among companies [4]. Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices increased by 3.5% month-on-month due to tight supply and pre-holiday stockpiling demands [4]. - Industrial metal prices faced pressure due to weak domestic demand and hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve following a rate cut [4]. Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - Long-distance passenger transport demand improved, with a month-on-month increase in air transport demand [4]. - National highway freight traffic and railway freight volume rose by 1.9% and 0.2% respectively [4].