元旦"微度假"热度高 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.04 2026-01-06 国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 1 期） 本报告导读： 消费复苏动能较强，但投资、生产仍需政策进一步提振。 投资要点： 宏 观 周 报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 元旦居民出行热度高，"微度假"是主流。跨区域人员流动以 19.5%的 同比增速创近期新高，铁路、水路客运增速领跑，中短途微度假成 主流，服务消费中游乐需求表现亮眼，但商品消费受年末翘尾效应 消退影响有所回落。其他高频数据显示，投资方面，地产销售边际 回落，不过其中一线城市限购放松释放部分需求，基建与开工建设 仍受新项目不足等因素制约。进出口方面，港口运行平稳，国内进 口运价与 BDI 指数走势分化。生产方面，多数行业开工率回落，呈 现分化态势，石化受成本抬升、汽车受需求回落影响表现平淡，锂 电、光伏中上游制造等新兴行业表现较好。物价上，PPI 商品价格普 遍回升，CPI 表现分化。流动性层面，人民币汇率升破 7.0 大关，资 金利率与国债收益率有所上行。 风险提示：贸 ...

Core Viewpoints - Fiscal expansion will shift focus from scale to efficiency, emphasizing structural improvements and effectiveness in 2026, with debt instruments enhancing collaboration to amplify multiplier effects [2][9][12] - Monetary policy will prioritize coordination with fiscal measures, maintaining stable interest rates during periods of government leverage slowdown, with a focus on managing debt risks and other long-term variables [2][15][18] Expanding Domestic Demand - Broad fiscal expansion aims to stabilize investment, with a focus on utilizing new special bonds for "new infrastructure" and "green infrastructure" to promote investment recovery [21][23] - Subsidy policies will be optimized to enhance consumption, with a shift towards nationwide standardized subsidies and a focus on supporting quality service supply [26][27][28] Addressing Overcapacity - The core of addressing overcapacity involves curbing unreasonable incremental capacity expansion and cleaning up overdue payments to alleviate corporate burdens [30][31] New Growth Drivers - Emphasis on bridging gaps in the technology service sector, with a focus on converting technological advantages into competitive advantages in industries [32][33] - The integration of artificial intelligence with manufacturing is highlighted as a key direction for growth, opening new markets and enhancing manufacturing capabilities [33][34] Trade Structure Adjustment - Export structures need adjustment, with a focus on optimizing supply chain layouts to mitigate external shocks, encouraging service exports to enhance resilience against external policy uncertainties [35][36]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market started the new year positively, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closing at 26,338 points and 9,169 points, down 2.8% and 2.9% respectively [1] - Total trading volume in Hong Kong reached HKD 140.9 billion, an increase of 18.4% compared to HKD 119 billion on December 31 [1] - The technology, materials, and consumer discretionary sectors saw increases of 3.9%, 3.5%, and 3.3% respectively, while consumer staples and utilities rose only 0.9% and 0.5% [1] - Baidu Group (9888 HK) and New Oriental (9901 HK) led the blue-chip stocks with gains of 9.4% and 7.2%, while Cheung Kong Infrastructure (1038 HK) and Tingyi (322 HK) experienced declines of 0.9% and 0.7% [1] IPO Market - The performance of new stocks was strong, which is expected to positively influence investor sentiment in the IPO market [1] - Wall Street's recent IPO of domestic GPU company Birran Technology (6082 HK) saw its stock price rise by 75.6% after an initial surge of approximately 1.2 times [1] Automotive Industry - On the first trading day of the new year, the Hong Kong automotive sector followed the market trend upward [3] - Geely Automobile (175 HK) announced a cumulative sales target of 3.024 million units for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 39%, exceeding its annual target [3] - The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) for Geely are expected to increase by 90% year-on-year, with a target of 3.45 million units for 2026, including 2.22 million NEVs, a year-on-year increase of 32% [3] - BYD (1211 HK) reported total sales of 4.602 million units last year, up 7.7%, with its stock price rising 3.6% [3] - Li Auto (2015 HK) saw its stock price increase by 4.9% [3] Renewable Energy Sector - The renewable energy and utilities sectors generally rose last Friday, with Goldwind Technology (2208 HK) surging by 21.0% [3] - The company’s stake in Blue Arrow Aerospace received approval for its IPO application on the A-share Sci-Tech Innovation Board, drawing comparisons to SpaceX [3] - Meanwhile, Weisheng Holdings (3393 HK) rose by 4.7%, as its subsidiary received investment from Boyu Capital, which is expected to enhance its smart grid and data center energy solutions business [3]

格隆汇1月4日丨龙建股份(600853.SH)公布2025年度业绩快报，报告期内，公司实现营业收入 1,768,487.67万元，同比降低3.31%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润40,451.31万元，同比降低 2.05%；归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润39,083.41万元，同比降低2.59%。报告期 末，公司总资产3,880,315.54万元，较报告期初增长3.44%；归属于上市公司股东的所有者权益 405,578.50万元，较报告期初增长9.82%。 在本报告期内，公司所处的基建行业受行业因素、国家宏观政策等影响，导致当期营业收入与利润水平 与上年同期相比小幅下降。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 increased by 0.9 points to 50.1, significantly above the seasonal trend, which typically sees a decline of 0.3 points over the past decade [1][5][6]. The main driving force behind this increase is the upward shift in the economic center of high-tech manufacturing [1][5]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The absolute economic performance is led by the pharmaceutical, automotive, textile, and computer communication electronics industries, supported by the upcoming "two new" policies in 2026, which include subsidies for digital and smart products, and vehicle replacement policies [1][9]. - The computer communication electronics sector has maintained a PMI above 52 for five consecutive months, driven by the "AI+" industry trend [1][9]. - Export orders have rebounded, with the textile industry’s export order index rising above 60 and the pharmaceutical industry’s export order index reaching 55 [1][9]. Group 2: Marginal Changes - Industries showing improvement in economic performance include pharmaceuticals, textiles, electrical machinery, petrochemicals, and metal products, with the pharmaceutical sector potentially benefiting from the flu season [2][12]. - The petrochemical industry has stabilized at a low level, with production indicators rising significantly by 15 points, likely due to stabilizing oil prices in late December [2][12]. - The electrical machinery sector's improvement is linked to the continuation of the 2026 "old-for-new" appliance policy and strong demand in the energy storage sector, with the sector's factory price index rising by 4.9 points in December [2][12]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - Emerging industries such as biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology continue to maintain high levels of economic performance, with biotechnology seeing a 2.7-point increase in its economic index [2][15]. - Among the seven emerging industries, biotechnology has the highest economic performance, while new energy vehicles and next-generation information technology are in the 50-55 range [15]. Group 4: Construction Sector - The construction industry has returned to economic expansion after four months, with the real estate sector showing a slight increase of 0.5 points in its index [3][16]. - The construction activity index for civil engineering rose by 1.2 points, driven by the concentrated release of new policy financial tools and favorable construction conditions in southern regions [3][16]. - The construction PMI increased by 3.2 points to 52.9, marking a return to economic expansion [3][17]. Group 5: Service Sector - The service sector's business activity index rose by 0.2 points to 49.7, with online information technology services and postal services leading the performance [3][22]. - The financial services and capital market services sectors have business activity indices above 60, indicating high economic performance [3][22]. - The accommodation and catering services sector showed the lowest performance, declining in line with weak consumer mobility data [3][22].

人民财讯1月4日电，龙建股份（600853）1月4日发布2025年度业绩快报，报告期内，公司实现营业收入 176.85亿元，同比降低3.31%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润4.05亿元，同比降低2.05%。在本报告 期内，公司所处的基建行业受行业因素、国家宏观政策等影响，导致当期营业收入与利润水平与上年同 期相比小幅下降。 ...

格隆汇1月4日｜龙建股份(600853.SH)发布2025年度业绩快报，营业总收入为176.85亿元，同比下降 3.31%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为4.05亿元，同比下降2.05%。在本报告期内，公司所处的基建行 业受行业因素、国家宏观政策等影响，导致当期营业收入与利润水平与上年同期相比小幅下降。 ...

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is expected to slow to 4.6%, with a strong production sector and moderate demand recovery [1][14] - Industrial production is projected to maintain steady growth, significantly supporting the overall GDP growth target [2][15] - External demand remains resilient, with export growth expected to continue positively [1][5] Production - The industrial added value growth rate for December is estimated at 5.0%, with an annual growth rate of 5.9% for 2025, significantly higher than GDP growth [2][15] - Improvement in demand is noted, driven by pre-holiday inventory buildup and construction progress [2][16] - Manufacturing enterprises are experiencing improved production and market demand, with production growth slightly outpacing demand [2][16] Consumption - The retail sales growth rate for December is expected to be 1.5%, a slight increase from 1.3% [3][19] - Policies supporting the replacement of old products are anticipated to bolster consumer spending, particularly in durable goods [3][19] - The automotive sector continues to face challenges with declining sales and increased discounts, impacting overall retail recovery [3][20] Investment - Fixed asset investment for 2025 is projected to decline by 3.3%, with manufacturing investment showing resilience at 1.2% growth, while infrastructure and real estate investments are under pressure [4][23] - The investment environment has been notably weak since June 2025, with a focus on stabilizing growth in 2026 [4][25] - Manufacturing and broad infrastructure investments are expected to jointly drive growth in early 2026, with a projected increase of 2.5% for the year [4][25][30] Export - December export growth is anticipated at 3.9%, with an annual growth rate of 6.6% for 2026, supported by stable external demand from non-developed countries [5][5] - The stabilization of US-China trade relations and reduced trade friction with Europe and Japan are expected to benefit exports [5][5] Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate for December is expected to be 0.7%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected at -1.9% [6][6] - The overall price level is expected to remain stable, with core CPI showing signs of recovery [6][6] Employment - The urban unemployment rate for December is projected to rise slightly to 5.2%, influenced by seasonal factors [7][7] - Continued policy support is expected to help stabilize employment, particularly for vulnerable groups [7][7] Monetary Policy - Financial data for December indicates continued pressure, with new loans and social financing expected to decline [8][8] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for flexible monetary policy to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery [8][8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Brazil's new industrial plan has provided preferential loans amounting to 588.4 billion reais from January 2024 to September 2025 [1] Group 2 - The infrastructure sector received the largest share of loans, totaling 254.4 billion reais [1] - The agricultural processing industry was allocated 125.7 billion reais [1] - Loans for digital transformation amounted to 98.9 billion reais [1] - The decarbonization and bioindustry sectors received 54.7 billion reais [1] - Defense sector loans totaled 29.6 billion reais [1] - The healthcare sector was allocated 24.9 billion reais [1]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery in December, driven by an increase in working days and the effectiveness of policy financial tools, which improved demand in infrastructure and manufacturing investment chains [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - Key indicators related to production and demand improved across the board, with factory price indicators rebounding, reflecting recovery in various manufacturing sectors due to the combination of working day differences and policy support [1] - Industries benefiting from this recovery include those in the infrastructure chain driven by policy financial tools, as well as the automotive and textile sectors, which saw improvements in export growth [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI showed improvement, primarily driven by a recovery in the construction industry, while the service sector remains relatively weak, indicating that the impact of incremental tools needs to expand further [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Overall, the economic climate improved in December due to the combination of more working days and the influence of policy financial tools, with expectations that the effects of these policies will continue to manifest, promoting marginal economic improvement [1]