李彦霖 兴业证券海外分析师: 早上好，感谢大家的参会。昨天的话，港股市场在这个全球海外市场波动的一个情况下， 那么也出现了较大的这样的一个波动。那我们今天的话主要是分析这个沃什被提名为下一 任美联储主席带来的影响，以及港股接下来的一个走势的一个展望，对于这个昨天的一个 波动，那么直接的一个出发原因的话是，沃什被提名为下一任的这个美联储。而他之前的 市场的话，一直相对来讲是比较偏鹰的，所以引发了市场对于这个流动性预期的这样的一 个调整。包括对于美债利率和美元看法的这样的一个分析，再加上之前整个以黄金为代表 的这个大宗商品市场，都是处于非常亢奋的这样的一个状态。 那么所带来的这样的一个美债美元的预期的一个变化，也推动了这些资产。出现了一个比 较大幅的调整，并且出现了一定的这样的一个交易所推动的这样的一个循环的这样一个， 反身性的快速的一个下跌。那么在具体怎么来看这个沃什的这样的一个影响？那么首先我 们去看沃什最近两年以来的这样的一些公开的一个发言。可以整理出它的一个货币政策的 一个蓝图。那么首先的话他认为这个 AI 技术的一个发展。会带来通缩的这样的一个力量， 去增加、提高劳动生产率、增加供给，从而，有希望去推动 ...

房地产板块震荡走高，财信发展涨停，空港股份涨超8%，荣安地产、我爱我家、华发股份、京投发展 跟涨。 ...

格隆汇10月24日丨佳源国际控股(02768.HK)发布公告，由2024年10月29日上午9时起，该公司的上市地 位将根据《上市规则》第6.01A(1)条予以取消。 ...

Group 1: Key Developments in Technology Sector - SpaceX announced the acquisition of xAI, with a combined valuation of $1.25 trillion, aiming to integrate AI, rocket technology, and satellite communications [2] - AMD reported Q4 2025 revenue of $10.27 billion, exceeding expectations, with an adjusted EPS of $1.53 and an operating profit of $2.85 billion [2] - Nvidia faced mixed reports regarding its AI chips, with OpenAI's CEO praising the technology despite earlier dissatisfaction [2] Group 2: Key Developments in Greater China Region - Dongpeng Beverage officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first functional beverage company to achieve dual listing in A+H shares, aiming to accelerate global expansion [4] - Chow Sang Sang addressed consumer concerns regarding gold pendants, confirming compliance with national standards after reviewing testing reports [4] Group 3: Key Developments in Americas Region - Apple’s xCode now supports Claude Agent SDK, and iPhone 16 is projected to lead in shipments in India for 2025 [6] - Microsoft released updates to address issues in Windows 11 and confirmed a bug affecting Windows 10 [6] - Amazon's AWS CEO stated that conditions for space-based data centers are not yet mature [6] Group 4: Key Developments in Asia-Pacific Region - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's combined market value reached $1.11 trillion, surpassing Tencent and Alibaba [9] - Toyota reported 79,561 electric vehicle sales in the U.S. for January and plans to launch a new SUV by mid-2026 [9] - Qatar Energy signed a 27-year LNG supply agreement with Japan's JERA, ensuring long-term energy supply [9] Group 5: Key Developments in Europe and Oceania Region - LVMH's target price was lowered by HSBC from €775 to €700, while it announced a dividend payment of €7.50 per share [12] - Porsche's target price was raised by Morgan Stanley from €38 to €41 [12] - Mercedes-Benz launched a new S-Class model featuring a Micro LED lighting system and plans to collaborate with Nvidia on autonomous taxi services [12]

Industry Overview - The real estate industry is experiencing a mixed performance in January, with second-hand housing transactions showing strong growth while new housing transactions remain weak [2][6] - In Beijing, second-hand housing transactions increased by 397% year-on-year, with an average of 578 units sold daily, while new housing transactions rose by 565% to 85 units [2] - Shanghai reported a significant increase in second-hand housing transactions, with a year-on-year growth of 806%, averaging 797 units sold daily, while new housing transactions increased by 525% [2] - Shenzhen's second-hand housing transactions decreased by 24.2% year-on-year, with an average of 181 units sold daily, and new housing transactions fell by 69% [3] Transaction Trends - Nationwide, the transaction volume for second-hand housing in 30 major cities showed a year-on-year increase of 309%, but a decline of 7.7% when excluding the Spring Festival effect [5] - In January, the cumulative transaction volume for second-hand housing increased by 12% year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend influenced by the Spring Festival timing [5] - The new housing transaction area in major cities saw a year-on-year increase of 109% in the last week of January, but a decline of 26.66% when adjusted for the Spring Festival [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "buy" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting the potential for investment opportunities as the negative factors diminish [6] - It is recommended to focus on leading real estate companies with land reserves in core cities and those targeting high-end improvement products, such as Poly Developments [6] - Additionally, leading intermediary firms like I Love My Home, which benefit from the increasing proportion of second-hand housing transactions, are expected to see valuation recovery [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent initiative by China Construction Bank to support the acquisition of second-hand housing for rental housing projects in Shanghai, focusing on specific districts and targeting older small-sized second-hand homes [1][3]. Group 1: Second-Hand Housing Measures - The second-hand housing acquisition initiative is a targeted response to the inventory issues in the real estate market, particularly in Shanghai and Beijing, where inventory levels are low [3]. - Shanghai's second-hand housing listings have started to decline since Q3 2025, leading to a decrease in the listing turnover cycle, indicating a positive trend in inventory digestion [3]. - The estimated tradable stock of housing in Shanghai is approximately 9.7 million units, with the pilot districts accounting for about 32% of this stock, and around 15% of the units being older homes built before 2000 [3]. Group 2: Land Supply and Price Stability - The pilot policy emphasizes groups with intentions to replace new homes within the same district, which helps maintain a financial closed loop in the area [4]. - The future land supply plans are crucial for sustaining price expectations; controlling short-term land supply is essential for stabilizing housing prices [4]. - If effective measures to limit land supply are implemented, it could lead to a more positive outlook for local real estate markets, potentially resulting in a broader recovery [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - If signals of inventory improvement strengthen in local real estate markets, the performance of real estate stocks in 2026 may be primarily driven by beta factors [5].

Group 1 - The central bank announced a reduction in the one-year re-lending rate from 1.5% to 1.25%, effective January 15, 2026, which also applies to the 300 billion yuan re-lending for affordable housing established in May 2024 [4] - Various local governments have initiated "old-for-new" housing acquisition programs, with Shanghai and Hangzhou leading the way in implementing these services to facilitate housing exchanges [4][5] - The "old-for-new" initiative aims to streamline the housing exchange process, reduce the time required for exchanges, and enhance the sale of new homes in the region [5] Group 2 - As of the end of 2025, public funds held a total market value of 38.8 billion yuan in the real estate sector, representing 0.43% of the total stock investment value, a decrease from 0.62% in the previous quarter [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustments in China's housing market aim to stimulate consumer demand by removing unreasonable restrictions on housing consumption, thereby enhancing the potential for housing consumption and revitalizing the real estate market [1][6]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - Major cities have relaxed housing purchase restrictions, injecting vitality into housing consumption. For instance, Beijing allows multi-child families to purchase multiple homes within certain areas, while Shanghai has lifted restrictions on the number of homes that can be purchased in specific zones [2][4]. - Financial policies have been optimized, including lower mortgage rates and down payment ratios, which have reduced the barriers for consumers to purchase homes. For example, Beijing has unified mortgage rates for first and second homes, and the minimum down payment for second homes has been lowered to 25% [3][5]. Group 2: Market Response - Following the implementation of new policies, there has been a noticeable increase in market activity, with some cities experiencing a rebound in housing sales. For example, a project in Shanghai reported an average of 300 customer visits per day after the policy changes [4]. - The financial incentives provided through housing fund policies have directly alleviated the financial burden on consumers, with over 260 new policies introduced nationwide to enhance loan limits and simplify processes [5]. Group 3: Demand Release - The removal of unreasonable restrictions is expected to release three core demands: the rigid demand from new residents and talent, the improvement demand through lowered down payment ratios, and the reasonable cross-regional purchasing demand [6]. - There is still potential for further relaxation of policies, particularly regarding the use of housing funds and transaction processes, which could enhance market expectations and consumer confidence [7][8].

齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点周千清通讯员崔如坤 去年以来，郓城县锚定省市提振消费部署，以"政策+活动+场景"三轮驱动，精准打出促消费"组合拳"，实现消费规模稳步扩 大、结构持续优化，核心消费数据亮眼，为县域经济高质量发展注入强劲动能。新的一年，郓城将聚焦"商文旅农体"深度融 合，推动消费提质升级、再上新台阶。 政策赋能添底气消费回暖显实效 民生兜底强根基新型消费拓空间 郓城县将民生保障融入促消费全过程，发放中度及以上失能老年人养老服务消费补贴63.58万元、"孝老优惠券"10万元，惠及老 年群体；举办线上线下招聘活动169场，提供岗位6.5万余个，达成就业意向7665人，以稳定就业筑牢消费基础。 活动搭台聚人气场景创新增活力 2025年，郓城县围绕促消费主题，全年开展各类活动170余场，覆盖商贸、文旅等多领域，实现"月月有活动、季季有亮点"，吸 引超2000家次商户参与、超百万人次客流。 节假日节点精准发力，五一黄金周南湖广场商贸博览会联动乡镇分会场，70余家企业参展，实现销售额3000万元；"迎春购物 季""黄河大集"等系列活动，既让消费者得实惠，也帮企业拓市场。"来菏游好郓.百花迎牡丹"好汉文化节等17场大型文旅活 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In December, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded significantly by 18.4 percentage points to 5.3%, pulling the cumulative year-on-year growth rate for the whole year to 0.6%, but the profit margin remains at a historical low. [1] - In January, the manufacturing PMI fell back into the contraction range. The input price was stronger than the finished product price, and the trend of squeezing enterprise profits still exists. Recently, the rotation of commodity prices is mainly driven by the cost side rather than overheated demand, which has limited suppression on the bond market. [1] - The economic data is weak. The long Spring Festival holiday in February may hinder credit issuance. Coupled with the recent stock market fluctuations and commodity price adjustments, short - term favorable factors are concentrated. Considering that it is the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the PPI is in the cycle of turning positive, if the interest rate continues to decline, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing the long - end interest rate in the short term. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Market News - **Diplomatic Event**: The British Prime Minister visited China again after an 8 - year interval. During the visit, China and the UK reached a series of positive results, including promoting the development of a long - term and stable comprehensive strategic partnership, holding a new round of strategic dialogue, economic and financial dialogue, and other mechanism - based dialogues, and establishing a China - UK financial working group. China is also considering implementing a unilateral visa - free policy for British citizens and reducing the import tariff rate of whisky from 10% to 5%. [2][9] - **Industrial Policy**: China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation plans to promote the development of new fields such as space tourism during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, including accelerating the iteration of sub - orbital and orbital space tourism aircraft products, and conducting related flight verifications. It will also carry out the demonstration of the "Tianguangkaiwu" major project. [2][9] - **Real Estate Policy**: Many real estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly. However, some troubled real estate enterprises are required to regularly report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located. [2][10] - **Consumption Policy**: The General Office of the State Council issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption", proposing 12 policy measures in three aspects: stimulating the development vitality of key fields, cultivating the development momentum of potential fields, and strengthening support and guarantee. [2][10] - **Data Security Policy**: The Cyberspace Administration of China solicited opinions on the classification and grading rules for financial information service data. The "Guidelines for the Classification and Grading of Financial Information Service Data (Draft for Comment)" classifies financial information service data into three primary categories: business data, user data, and enterprise data, with further subdivisions. [2][10] - **Financial Data**: By the end of 2025, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China increased by 16.1% year - on - year, with solar power generation and wind power generation having significant growth. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year in 2025, reversing the three - year decline trend. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%, with a reduction of 963.6 billion yuan for the whole year. The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. [2][11][13] Overseas Key Data and Events - **Federal Reserve Decision**: The Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting decided to keep the interest rate unchanged with a 10 - to - 2 vote. Two members opposed and advocated a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut. [2][14] - **US Government Issue**: The US government appropriation bill failed to pass the Senate, and the US federal government faces the risk of partial "shutdown" again. [2][14] - **Exchange Rate Observation**: The US Treasury Department included 10 economies such as China, Japan, and South Korea in the exchange - rate observation list, claiming that the RMB was significantly undervalued. [2][14] - **Canada's Action**: Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that a formal review of the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement would be launched in a few weeks. [2][14] - **South Korea's Semiconductor**: South Korea's semiconductor exports were strong in January, with the total export amount reaching $20.5 billion, a year - on - year increase of more than 102%. [2][15] - **Precious Metal Market**: US President Trump's nomination of Wash as the Federal Reserve Chairman triggered a sharp sell - off in the precious metal market. Spot gold had an intraday decline of nearly 13%, and spot silver plunged by more than 35%. [2][15] Market Performance - **Stock and Bond Market**: This week, the stock market fluctuated. The yields of most 3 - to 10 - year treasury bonds declined, with the yield of the 10 - year ChinaBond treasury bond falling to 1.8112%. The yield of the 30 - year ChinaBond treasury bond rose slightly to 2.289%, and the term spread between the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds widened again. [1]