证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 11 日 10 月，信用策略如何布局？ ——信用策略系列报告 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 赵孟田 SAC：S1350525070004 zhaomengtian@huayuanstock.com 拉长时间维度到 2025Q3，短端下沉策略仍然是相对占优的策略选择。2025Q3，10Y 国 债收益率从季度初的 1.64%调整至 9/30 的 1.86%（以中债国债到期收益率曲线列示的数据为 准），不同期限不同券种的信用债收益率在 2025Q3 也都跟随利率出现不同程度调整，持续的 下跌行情使得市场情绪趋向谨慎。2025Q3，不同券种的短端下沉策略组合均有正收益，3Y AAA-产业债子弹型策略也录得正收益，除此以外的其他策略对组合收益均有负向贡献，其中 城投债哑铃型、二级债哑铃型、银行永续债哑铃型和拉久期策略的亏损均达到了 1%以上。值 得注意的是，无论何种策略，在 9 月份或是三季度所能够获得的资本利得均为负值，在票息 保护本就相对较弱 ...

专题：北京公募基金高质量发展系列活动 新时代、新基金、新价值 中国证券投资基金业协会日前发布的公募基金市场数据显示，截至2025年7月底，公募基金资产净值合 计35.08万亿元，为首次突破35万亿元大关，再创历史新高。与此同时，公募基金产品数量也达13014 只。面对万基争艳，背后逐渐浮现产品设计与需求错配、同质化竞争加剧等问题，由此也增加了投资者 的选基择基难度。 近期，证监会发布的《公募基金高质量发展行动方案》明确提出基金行业要"支持各类基金产品协调发 展"，将以投资者最佳利益为核心的经营理念，贯穿于公司治理、产品发行、投资运作、考核机制等基 金运营管理全链条、各环节，实现从重规模向重投资者回报转型。 作为公募基金行业一员，汇安基金自成立以来，就坚持"汇才智，安心盈"这一发展理念，正走出一条以 客户为本、适合时代趋势又独具特色的产品创设路径。 锚定一个核心：投资者利益为本 所谓"君子谋时而动，顺势而为"。铭记"受人之托、忠人之事"这一初心，公募基金公司需要将投研动作 前置，发挥专业投研优势，立足客户所需和时代发展趋势进行前瞻布局。 以史为鉴，基金销售冰点通常是长期投资的买点。汇安基金也坚持做难而正确的事， ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 31 日 第一，风险偏好压制逻辑，高风偏资产分流债市资金；第二，通胀/滞涨预期逻辑， 部分债市机构投资者对于价格紧缩的信心出现实质性动摇；第三，情绪及脆弱性 扰动逻辑，当出现反内卷、权益上涨等行情驱动时，止盈或止损诉求均较强，调 整开始的初期担心及抢跑均较为严重。 ❑ 长期层面，债市反而可能演绎反转利多逻辑 第一，市场对于反内卷概念的预期可能自行纠偏；第二，需求政策配套预期可能 弱化，反内卷定价上可能走出"先定价通胀→后定价需求走弱"的利率反转下行 节奏；第三，中美谈判持续进行中，内需政策层面或还需走一步看一步。 ❑ 资产荒驱动配置盘买债的底层逻辑没有明显变化 在基于中期利率下行的判断下，波动依然对应做多机会，负债端较稳定的机构或 许合理把握本轮调整给予的空间。在本轮市场调整中，除了基金恐慌性抛售外， 其他配置型机构均明显增加了净买入力度，农商行承接利率债的意愿在市场调整 初期已有较为充分展现，普信债和二级债配置盘需求较弱但也有所展现，资产荒 驱动配置盘买债的底层逻辑没有明显变化。 ❑ 风险提示 如何看待债市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current adjustment of the dividend yield has alleviated the pressure of the over - valued bond market, and the odds have increased marginally. The current cost - performance advantage of bonds is gradually emerging, which may provide a more favorable valuation support environment for the phased layout of interest - rate bonds [7][18]. - The liquidity environment provides a relatively stable operating foundation for the bond market. The social financing growth rate may peak in the third quarter and then decline trend - wise, and the expected impact of structural changes on the bond market is limited. The bond market faces a relatively friendly liquidity environment [7][24]. - The central bank has clearly shown its attitude of protecting liquidity, and the money market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond may decline to around 1.6%. It is recommended to pay continuous attention to the yield curve and various convex point opportunities, and the spread may continue to be flattened in late July. It is advisable to first focus on interest - rate bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds, and then on credit bonds [7][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Bond Market Callback - From July 7th to July 16th, the yields of the bond market generally increased. The yields of the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds increased by 2bp and 3bp respectively, and the short - end yields increased more significantly. The adjustment of Tier 2 capital bonds was more obvious [5][12]. Bond Market Odds Gradually Rising - The adjustment of the dividend yield has alleviated the pressure of the over - valued bond market, and the odds have increased marginally. The decline of the CSI 300 dividend yield from the May average of 3.47% to 3.0% on July 14th is conducive to the inflow of funds into the bond market [7][18]. - The liquidity environment provides a stable foundation for the bond market. The social financing growth rate is expected to reach a high of about 9.0% in July and then decline to around 8.2% by the end of the year. The support of government bonds for social financing may weaken in the fourth quarter, and the substitution effect of special refinancing bonds on RMB loans will continue. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the bond market's liquidity environment is friendly [7][24]. 10 - year Treasury Bond Has Certain Odds Above 1.65%, Recommend First Interest - rate and Tier 2 Capital Bonds, Then Credit Bonds - Due to the disturbance of the money market at the beginning of the quarter and the strengthening of the equity market, the Tier 2 capital bonds and credit bonds with previously compressed spreads have given back their gains, especially the medium - and long - term and some medium - and low - grade varieties. However, the core logic of Tier 2 capital bonds has not changed [33]. - Since July 10th, the central bank has shifted to net investment in open - market operations. The money market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond may decline to around 1.6%. It is recommended to seize the layout opportunities after the adjustment, with medium - and short - term varieties as the basis for coupon income, and medium - and high - grade 3 - 5 - year varieties having better elasticity in interest - rate band operations [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report It is expected that with the combined cooperation of the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase and outright reverse repurchase, the funds' volatility during the tax period may be small. The past week saw a slight tightening of funds, and in the coming week, attention should be paid to the disturbances of government bond net payments and tax period outflows. The trading demand from trading desks has weakened, and the net buying of general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds by major non - bank buyers has significantly decreased. In the future, the disturbances from funds and the equity market to the bond market will increase, and recently, the market may return to active bond trading to avoid liquidity risks during adjustments [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Central Bank Operations - In the past week (7/7 - 7/11), the central bank's open - market operations led to a net liquidity withdrawal of 2265 billion yuan. As of 7/11, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 4257 billion yuan, significantly lower than that on 6/30 but still higher than the seasonal level in previous years. In the next week (7/14 - 7/18), the central bank's reverse repurchase will mature 4257 billion yuan, with a relatively small maturity scale evenly distributed daily. In July, the central bank has 1.5 trillion yuan of MLF and outright reverse repurchase maturing, including 3000 billion yuan of MLF, 7000 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase, and 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase [9][10]. 3.1.2 Government Bond Issuance - In the past week, the government bond net payment was 2961 billion yuan, with 1849 billion yuan for national bonds and 1112 billion yuan for local bonds. In the next week, the expected government bond net payment is 3985 billion yuan, with 2761 billion yuan for national bonds and 1224 billion yuan for local bonds. The net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday and Tuesday. As of 7/11, the net financing progress of national bonds is 56.7%, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 is about 2.89 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of new local bonds is 51.8%, with a remaining issuance space of 2.51 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of refinancing special bonds is 89.8%, with a remaining issuance space of 2041 billion yuan. The supply of government bonds accelerated in the second week of July, and the issuance pressure is relatively large in August and September of the third quarter [17][18][20]. 3.1.3 Bill Market - In the past week, bill interest rates showed a divergent trend, with the 3 - month bill interest rate rising and the 6 - month bill interest rate falling. Seasonally, the current bill interest rate trend is still significantly weaker than the seasonal level, indicating that the recovery of credit demand remains slow [25]. 3.1.4 Funds Review - Funds tightened slightly, showing a trend of first loosening, then slightly tightening, and finally relaxing. The funds were the loosest at the opening on 7/7 and the tightest at the opening on 7/10. Most fund interest rates increased, and the term and market stratifications mostly converged [27][30][31]. 3.1.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - In the past week (7/7 - 7/13), the total issuance of certificates of deposit was 4271 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 833.9 billion yuan. The issuance scale increased compared with the previous week, but the net financing scale declined. As of 7/13, the cumulative net financing of certificates of deposit for the whole year was 1.73 trillion yuan. The issuance weighted term decreased. In the next week, the maturity scale is 8028 billion yuan, and the maturity pressure is relatively large from Tuesday to Friday [50][55]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior Tracking 3.2.1 Secondary Market Transactions - The trading demand from trading desks has weakened, and the net buying of general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds by major non - bank buyers has decreased. Different types of bonds have different buying and selling situations among various institutions. For example, large banks' purchases of short - term national bonds have increased, and the net buying of credit bonds by major non - bank buyers has significantly decreased [61]. 3.2.2 Institutional Duration - The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds has oscillated upwards. The 10 - day moving average of the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds on 7/11 was 4.04 years, up from 3.96 years on 7/4. The secondary market trading duration of credit bonds showed mixed trends, with the 5 - day moving average of urban investment bond trading duration rising and that of Tier 2 capital bond trading duration falling [59][64]. 3.2.3 Institutional Leverage - The calculated bond market leverage ratio in the past week was 107.65%, a significant decrease compared with the previous week (107.96%) [66].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced investment strategy, highlighting that a bullish market does not guarantee profits and cautioning against the tendency to chase high returns without proper risk assessment [2][3][5]. Market Analysis - The A-share market has shown volatility, with some sectors becoming overheated, leading to increased market fluctuations [4]. - The article warns that a bullish sentiment can lead to losses if investors buy in at high prices without proper analysis [3][5]. Investment Strategy - It is crucial to break free from a bearish mindset and avoid being overly conservative, which can result in missed opportunities for excess returns [5]. - Investors should focus on asset allocation and avoid concentrating all funds in equity funds to maintain a stable mindset [14]. Debt Fund Insights - Debt funds should not be viewed merely as low-yield investments; they serve as a safety net and can reduce portfolio volatility during market downturns [6][8][9]. - Debt funds provide liquidity, allowing investors to redeem funds when cash is needed [10]. Risk Management - The core of investment is not about missing opportunities but rather about having the capability to seize them [11]. - Investors are advised to assess their cash flow and ensure that investments are made with "idle money" to maintain a stable mindset [17][18]. Investment Recommendations - Conservative investors may consider shifting from pure debt to a mix of primary and secondary debt or fixed income products, while those with higher risk tolerance can adjust their portfolios moderately [19]. - It is recommended to buy on dips and to avoid chasing high prices, as no market rises indefinitely without adjustments [20][21].

Key Points Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives rating criteria for different types of bonds: - **Interest - rate bonds**: Based on the net price change of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. "Increase holding" means interest risk decreases and net price has room to rise; "Neutral" means interest risk is stable and net price has minor fluctuations; "Reduce holding" means interest risk increases and net price has room to fall [40]. - **Credit bonds**: Based on the net price change of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. "Increase holding" means credit risk decreases and net price has room to rise; "Neutral" means credit risk is stable and net price has minor fluctuations; "Reduce holding" means credit risk increases and net price has room to fall [41]. - **Convertible bonds**: Based on the change of convertible bond price relative to the CSI Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. "Increase holding" means convertible bonds perform better than the index; "Neutral" means performance is the same as the index; "Reduce holding" means performance is worse than the index [42]. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Funds**: In the next week, the net financing scale of government bonds will decline, and the central bank is expected to withdraw funds as usual at the beginning of the month. The funds market is likely to maintain a balanced operation and cross the month smoothly [1]. - **Certificates of Deposit (CDs)**: In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs is about 0.25 trillion yuan, and the supply pressure will decrease. The funds market at the beginning of the month is expected to return to a balanced and loose state, and CD yields may show a volatile trend [1]. - **Institutional Behavior**: Funds, rural commercial banks, and other products are the main buyers of interest - rate bonds, and the net buying power of rural commercial banks has significantly rebounded [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Funds Review - **Central Bank's Operations**: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the central bank had a net funds injection of 1267.2 billion yuan. This month, the net injection of MLF was 118 billion yuan, and the net injection of outright repurchase was 20 billion yuan. The OMO stock increased to 2027.5 billion yuan [10]. - **Exchange Rate Movement**: During the statistical period, the RMB depreciated by 1.62 basis points against the US dollar due to uncertainties in US tariffs and the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts [10]. - **Government Bond Progress**: In the past week, the net financing of national bonds was 111 billion yuan, and the net financing since the beginning of the year was 3350.16 billion yuan, completing 50.3% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 479.467 billion yuan, and the issuance since the beginning of the year was 2558.12 billion yuan, completing 49.2% of the annual plan. As of June 27, the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts was 1.8 trillion yuan, completing 89.8% of the annual plan [13]. - **Funds Structure**: During the statistical period, the lending scale of national and joint - stock banks exceeded 5 trillion yuan, the lending scale of money market funds and wealth management products decreased, and the overall borrowing scale of non - bank institutions decreased significantly. Due to the strong demand for cross - month funds, the core funds rate increased marginally, and the R - series and DR - series moved basically in sync, with an obvious increase in liquidity stratification [16]. 3.1.2 CD Review - **Primary Market**: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the net financing of inter - bank CDs was - 411.35 billion yuan, and the issuance totaled 736.46 billion yuan, with a maturity volume of 1137.81 billion yuan. The average primary issuance rate was 1.6409% (previous value: 1.6556%). In the next three weeks, the maturities of inter - bank CDs will be 245.79 billion, 510.52 billion, and 802.81 billion yuan respectively [19]. - **Secondary Market**: During the statistical period, large banks, money market funds, and wealth management products continued to increase their holdings, while insurance companies and other product accounts continued to hold. Joint - stock banks changed from buying to selling. City and rural commercial banks were still the largest counterparties. The secondary market yield of CDs fluctuated slightly upward, the yield curve remained inverted, and the curve above 3M steepened. The yields of 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y CDs changed by 3.37BP/0.50BP/1.00BP/0.35BP/0.85BP respectively [21]. 3.1.3 Next Week's Focus - **Funds**: The central bank continued to over - renew MLF in June, and has been renewing MLF for 4 consecutive months to inject liquidity, combined with a net injection of 20 billion yuan in outright repurchase. The funds market was in a balanced and loose state. In the next week, the net financing scale of government bonds will decline, and the central bank is expected to withdraw funds as usual at the beginning of the month. The funds market is likely to maintain a balanced operation and cross the month smoothly [25]. - **CDs**: In the past month, the net financing of CDs remained negative. The central bank's increased open - market operations effectively relieved the banks' liability pressure, and the central level of primary CD rates decreased. In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs is about 0.25 trillion yuan, and the supply pressure will decrease. The funds market at the beginning of the month is expected to return to a balanced and loose state, and CD yields may show a volatile trend [26]. 3.2 Weekly Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Long - term Bond Funds' Duration**: On June 27, the median of the 10 - day rolling average duration of long - term bond funds was 3.91 years, a slight increase from the previous period [31]. - **Institutional Bond - Buying Behavior** - **Large Banks' Bond - Buying**: In the past week, large banks bought 28.7 billion yuan of national bonds (previous week: 51.7 billion yuan), a slight decline [31]. - **Interest - rate Bond Buyers**: Funds, rural commercial banks, and other products are the main buyers. Rural commercial banks' net buying power has significantly rebounded. In the past week, funds' net buying of interest - rate bonds was 89 billion yuan (previous week: 141.3 billion yuan), rural commercial banks' net buying was 47.3 billion yuan (previous week: - 127.2 billion yuan), and other products' net buying was 23.6 billion yuan (previous week: 42.8 billion yuan) [31]. - **CD Buyers**: Large banks, money market funds, wealth management products, and insurance companies are the main buyers. The net buying power of large banks and money market funds has significantly increased, while that of wealth management products and other products has decreased. In the past week, large banks' net buying of CDs was 73.2 billion yuan (previous week: 33.7 billion yuan), money market funds' net buying was 57.3 billion yuan (previous week: 41.6 billion yuan), wealth management products' net buying was 48.4 billion yuan (previous week: 80.9 billion yuan), and insurance companies' net buying was 23.5 billion yuan (previous week: 28 billion yuan) [31]. - **Credit Bond Buyers**: The net buying scale of major non - bank buyers of credit bonds has slightly declined. For credit bonds over 5 years, the net buying scale of non - bank buyers remained basically the same. Overall, funds, wealth management products, other products, money market funds, and insurance companies all participated in buying credit bonds, showing a balanced situation. For credit bonds over 5 years, insurance companies, wealth management products, and other products had strong buying power [31]. - **Secondary Bond Buyers**: The overall net buying demand is not strong. The net buying power of secondary bonds within 2 years has declined, and wealth management products are still the main net buyers. The demand for secondary bonds between 2 - 5 years and over 5 years has also declined significantly [31]. - **Institutional Leverage Level**: In the past week, the bond market leverage ratio was 107.93%, a continued increase from the previous period [32]. - **Key Spreads**: On June 27, the 10Y CDB - 10Y national bond term spread was 3.63bp, and the spread was converging; the 1Y CDB - R001 spread was 5.41BP, and the spread between short - term bond yields and funds prices widened slightly [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the next week, the main focus of the funding situation will shift to month - end liquidity. The net payment of government bonds will increase by over 70 billion yuan. Attention should be paid to the central bank's end - of - quarter OMO injection and the MLF roll - over operation on the 25th. The funding situation is expected to remain balanced and slightly loose [1]. - In the next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit (CDs) will exceed one trillion yuan, presenting significant supply pressure. However, the issuance pressure of CDs is expected to gradually ease. As the month - end approaches, the funding situation may fluctuate, and CD yields may continue to show a volatile trend [1]. - Funds remain the main buyers of interest - rate bonds. In the past week, the net purchase scale was approximately 141.2 billion yuan, showing a significant increase in volume [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Fund Review - From June 16 to June 20, 2025, 858.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase funds and 182 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF matured. The central bank injected 960.3 billion yuan of 7 - day funds, resulting in a net weekly fund withdrawal of 7.99 billion yuan. The OMO stock decreased to 960.3 billion yuan. The central bank conducted a 400 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation this week [10]. - During the statistical period, the RMB/USD spot exchange rate depreciated by 1.86 basis points due to the uncertainty of US tariffs and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut [10]. - In terms of government bond progress, based on the issuance start - date, the net financing of treasury bonds in the past week was 135.07 billion yuan, and the net financing since the beginning of the year was 3.23916 trillion yuan, completing 48.6% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds (new general bonds + new special bonds) in the past week was 69.722 billion yuan, and the issuance since the beginning of the year was 2.07865 trillion yuan, completing 40.0% of the annual plan. As of June 20, the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts had reached 1.74 trillion yuan, completing 86.8% of the annual plan [14]. - In terms of fund structure, during the statistical period, the lending scale of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased, while that of money market funds and wealth management products decreased. The overall borrowing scale of non - banking institutions decreased slightly. Thanks to the central bank's injection of medium - and long - term liquidity, the DR series declined, with the overnight rate running below the policy rate. The spread between the 7 - day rate and the policy rate narrowed to less than 10bp. Due to quarter - end needs, the 14 - day funding rate increased marginally. The R series showed a similar trend to the DR series, and the liquidity stratification remained at a low level. Overall, the funding situation showed a pattern of "increasing volume and decreasing price" this week, with a marginal tightening feeling on Thursday and Friday. After the central bank's intervention, the overall feeling was balanced [17]. 3.1.2 CD Review - In the primary market, during the statistical period, the net financing scale of inter - bank CDs was 8.068 billion yuan, with a total issuance of 110.232 billion yuan and a maturity of 102.164 billion yuan. In the next three weeks, 113.781 billion, 24.579 billion, and 51.052 billion yuan of inter - bank CDs will mature respectively. The primary issuance rate decreased slightly, with an average issuance rate of 1.6556% (previous value: 1.6744%) [20]. - In the secondary market, during the statistical period, the core buyers such as money market funds, wealth management products, and funds continued to increase their holdings. Large - scale banks changed from selling to buying, and insurance companies and other product accounts continued to increase their holdings. City commercial banks, rural commercial banks were the main counterparties. The secondary - market yield of CDs fluctuated and decreased slightly during the week, and the yield curve steepened slightly. The yields of 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y CDs changed by - 0.02BP/ - 2.25BP/ - 2.50BP/ - 2.70BP/ - 3.34BP respectively [21]. 3.1.3 Next Week's Focus - In terms of the funding situation, in the past week, the funding situation fluctuated due to quarter - end liquidity needs. On Thursday, the funding situation tightened marginally, and the intraday interest rate started to rise. However, the central bank immediately switched to net injection to support the funding situation. On Friday, the 7 - day funding rate returned to a low level, and DR007 dropped below 1.50%. Recently, thanks to the central bank's injection of medium - and long - term liquidity, the lending scale of large - scale banks increased significantly. The overnight rate has been running below the policy rate, and the spread between the 7 - day rate and the policy rate has narrowed to less than 10bp. The funding situation smoothly passed the tax - payment period. In the next week, the main focus of the funding situation will shift to month - end liquidity, and the net payment scale of government bonds will increase by over 70 billion yuan. Attention should be paid to the central bank's end - of - quarter OMO injection and the MLF roll - over operation on the 25th. The funding situation is expected to remain balanced [26]. - In terms of CDs, on the supply side, in the past week, the net financing of CDs remained negative. The central bank's injection of medium - and long - term liquidity alleviated the liability pressure of banks, and the primary CD rate decreased slightly. On the demand side, the demand from core buyers increased marginally, and the secondary - market yield of CDs fluctuated and decreased slightly during the week. In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs will exceed one trillion yuan, presenting significant supply pressure. However, the issuance pressure of CDs is expected to gradually ease. As the month - end approaches, the funding situation may fluctuate, and CD yields may continue to show a volatile trend [27]. 3.2 Weekly Institutional Behavior Tracking 3.2.1 General Credit Bonds Show an Obvious Trend of Extending Duration - Under the assumption of long - term narrow - range fluctuations in the risk - free rate, the market has further explored credit - spread strategies. Since mid - May, the trading duration of industrial bonds has rapidly increased, with the latest trading duration approaching 4 years. The liquidity of long - duration credit bonds has indeed improved. The trading duration of urban investment bonds has remained relatively stable, currently at around 2.5 years [3][29]. - Driven by the long - duration credit - sinking strategy, the remaining space may be quickly exhausted. In terms of spreads, the 3 - year - 1 - year AAA medium - and short - term note term spread is 9 - 10bp away from the previous low, and the 5 - year - 3 - year AAA medium - and short - term note term spread is 7 - 8bp away from the previous low. The credit - bond duration - sinking situation has reached an extreme level. In terms of yield distribution, currently, the yields of most general credit bond assets with a maturity of over 3 years are concentrated below 2.1%, indicating limited high - yield assets available for exploration [3][30]. 3.2.2 Review of Key Secondary - Market Transactions by Institutions - Large - scale banks: In the past week, the trend of large - scale banks' net buying of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years continued, with a buying scale of approximately 51.7 billion yuan [35]. - Interest - rate bond buyers: Funds remain the main buyers of interest - rate bonds. In the past week, the net purchase scale was approximately 141.2 billion yuan, showing a significant increase in volume. Rural commercial banks were one of the main sellers, with a net selling scale of approximately 127.2 billion yuan. In the case of 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds, funds also maintained strong buying power, while rural commercial banks and insurance companies were the main bond suppliers [35]. - Inter - bank CD buyers: The main buyers of CDs are wealth management products and other products, while the main sellers are city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, and securities firms [35]. - Credit - bond buyers: The net purchase scale of major non - banking buyers continued to increase significantly. Funds, wealth management products, and other products were the main net buyers, with funds having the largest incremental purchase. In the past week, the net purchase scale of funds reached 46.8 billion yuan. The net purchase scales of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years and ultra - long - term credit bonds with a maturity of over 5 years remained relatively stable, and the non - banking buyers showed a significant increase in volume [35]. - Subordinated - bond buyers: Funds continued to net sell subordinated bonds with a maturity of less than 2 years, with a net selling scale of approximately 5.1 billion yuan in the past week. Wealth management products and other products net bought 4.5 billion yuan. For subordinated bonds with a maturity of 2 - 5 years, the main buyers slightly reduced their purchases. Funds and other products had the largest net purchase scales, at 14.5 billion yuan and 12.2 billion yuan respectively. For subordinated bonds with a maturity of 5 - 10 years, the net purchase scale of funds increased slightly, reaching 4.5 billion yuan in the past week [35]. 3.2.3 High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Bond - Market Microstructure - On June 20, the median of the 10 - day rolling average duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 3.87 years, showing a significant increase compared to the previous period [36]. - In the past week, the bond - market leverage ratio was 107.83%, continuing to rise compared to the previous period [38]. - On June 20, the 10Y China Development Bank bond - 10Y treasury bond term spread was 3.74bp, showing a volatile narrowing trend. The 1Y China Development Bank bond - R001 spread was 4.87BP, and the spread between short - term bond yields and funding prices slightly widened [41].

▍ 上 周债市震荡偏弱。 2 0 2 5年4月2 1日至2 0 2 5年4月2 5日，债市震荡偏弱。1 0年期国债收益率从上周的1 . 6 4 9 3%变动至1 . 6 6 0 6%；1 0年期国开债收益 率从上周的1 . 6 8 1 0%变动至1 . 6 9 6 1%；TS、TF、T、TL主力合约收盘价分别变动- 0 . 1 5 /- 0 . 3 0 /- 0 . 2 6 /- 0 . 0 2元。 文 ｜ 明明 周成华 丘远航 赵诣 在贸易冲突背景下，预计从4月PMI开始，数据层面将逐步反映压力，适时降准降息时点临近，收益率曲线先牛陡后牛平的概率 更大。 ▍ 风险因素： 美国关税政策继续反复；货币政策、财政政策超预期；央行公开市场操作投放超预期；信用违约事件频发等。 本文节选自中信证券研究部已于 2025年4月27日 发布的《 每周债券策略聚焦20250426—适时降准降息窗口临近 》报告，具体分析内容（包括相关风险提示等）请详见报告。若因对报 告的摘编而产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为准。 ▍ 具体看单日表现。 周一，LPR维持不变，现券收益率有所上行。周二，税 期尾声，资金利率回落，债市修复。周三 ...