Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the May non-farm payroll data, highlighting that while job additions slightly exceeded expectations, the overall employment market shows signs of slowing down, with a notable focus on wage growth as a positive aspect [1]. Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, surpassing the expected 130,000, with job growth concentrated in three sectors: education and health services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and financial activities (+13,000) [2][16]. - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, but this stability was achieved at the cost of a declining labor force participation rate, which fell from 62.6% to 62.4% [5][22]. - The employment growth breadth has decreased, with the employment diffusion index dropping to 50%, indicating that job growth is becoming less widespread across various sectors [4][16]. Group 2: Wage Growth Insights - Wage growth in May was a highlight, with hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%, and a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, also above the anticipated 3.7% [6][31]. - The article emphasizes that the wage growth is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of consumers, particularly for low- and middle-income groups, amidst rising inflation concerns [6][12]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8% [3][35]. - The stock market reacted positively, with major indices such as the Dow Jones and Nasdaq rising, indicating a rebound in risk appetite among investors [3][35].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff uncertainties on China's exports, emphasizing the need to understand the core contradictions in the export transmission path and to closely monitor key variables through a high-frequency tracking framework [4][17]. Group 1: Tariff Uncertainty and Export Impact - The fluctuations in Trump's tariffs create significant estimation errors regarding their impact on China's overall exports, making it crucial to identify key variables and track their changes [4][17]. - The core elements affecting U.S. import demand under tariff pressures include U.S. tariff policies, the transmission of tariffs to import prices, and the impact on consumer purchasing power [17]. Group 2: High-Frequency Tracking Framework - A high-frequency tracking framework has been established, consisting of six categories and sixteen indicators to monitor global trade demand, Chinese export volume and price, direct trade flow between China and the U.S., potential transshipment trade, U.S. import demand, and effective tariff rates [18]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI are used to track global trade volume, indicating a downward trend in global cargo export volume growth [5][24]. - The RJ/CRB Index is employed to monitor global trade price growth, showing a recovery from -0.8% to 1.2% between April and May [6][25]. Group 3: Monitoring Chinese Exports - Container throughput at monitored ports is used to track China's export volume, which has shown a marginal decline from 7.3% to 6.7% year-on-year as of May 25 [7][29]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) serves as a leading indicator for China's export prices, indicating a potential weakening trend in export prices over the next three months [8][33]. - Import data from South Korea and Vietnam are utilized as synchronous indicators for China's overall export performance, with recent data suggesting a marginal weakening in exports [9][41]. Group 4: U.S. Import Demand and Tariff Rates - U.S. import demand is tracked through IHS Markit customs data, revealing a decline in import amounts and container volumes, reflecting the impact of new tariffs [13][68]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased from 6.3% in April to 8.1% in May, indicating a rising burden on imports [14][86]. - Predictions from the National Retail Federation suggest a significant drop in U.S. container imports, with expectations of a -13% year-on-year decline in May [78][79].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global asset classes in May, highlighting that global stocks outperformed commodities, the renminbi, and the dollar, while global bonds showed a decline [2]. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In May, global stocks returned 5.72%, followed by commodities at 1.26%, the renminbi at 1.00%, the dollar at -0.14%, and global bonds at -0.36% [2]. - The "Big and Beautiful Act" in the U.S. may exacerbate long-term debt risks, with projections indicating that the debt-to-GDP ratio could soar to 134%-149% by 2035 if the act is implemented [4][10]. - The probability of a U.S. economic recession is rising, leading to defensive sectors outperforming cyclical sectors, with defensive sectors showing a year-to-date valuation increase of 10.7% compared to cyclical sectors [5][13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Emerging markets are outperforming developed markets, driven by a weaker dollar, which reduces the holding costs of emerging market assets and alleviates debt pressures [6][15]. - Global fund managers have increased their allocation to European stocks, reaching the highest level since October 2017, with net overweights rising from 22% to 35% [6][18]. - U.S. trade policy uncertainty is identified as a significant risk for U.S. stocks, with a close correlation observed between the Bloomberg U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the S&P 500 Index [6][22]. Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Insights - The implied volatility of the USD/HKD risk reversal options has dropped to historically low levels, indicating a dominant bearish sentiment towards the HKD [7][25]. - The forward P/E ratio premium of the "Seven Giants" in the U.S. stock market has decreased to historical lows, suggesting a reset in the valuation advantage of tech giants [8][28]. - The Japanese yen's traditional safe-haven status has weakened, leading to significant depreciation in May, while other Asian currencies benefited from tariff pauses [8][31]. Group 4: Recent Developments in Currencies - Following the U.S.-China tariff suspension agreement, the onshore renminbi exchange rate broke through the central bank's midpoint, reaching a new high for the year [9][32]. - The New Taiwan Dollar experienced significant appreciation, surpassing the 30 mark against the U.S. dollar, attributed to foreign capital inflows and global risk sentiment rebound [9][37].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic focus in May is expected to shift towards exports, with internal changes remaining relatively small. The anticipated export growth rate is around 3.5%, while imports are expected to decline by approximately 2% [2][3][11]. Export - Overall export growth is projected to marginally decline but remains within an acceptable range, with a forecasted year-on-year growth of 3.5% in dollar terms for May [3][11]. - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in container throughput at monitored ports, with a year-on-year decline of 6.7% as of May 25, compared to 7.3% at the end of April [4][12]. - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 20.2% in May, reflecting weak direct exports to the U.S. [4][12]. - Imports from ASEAN countries have also shown a marginal decline, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% in ship arrivals in May, down from 8.3% in April [4][12]. Domestic Demand - Retail sales are expected to grow by around 5.5% in May, with strong performance in the automotive sector but weaker pricing [5][15]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to decline to approximately 3.8% for January to May, influenced by insufficient project availability [5][14]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a year-on-year decline of about 0.4%, while Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to decrease by around 3.5% [6][8]. Financial Data - New social financing is expected to reach 1.9 trillion yuan in May, a decrease of 100 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [6][16]. - M2 money supply is projected to grow by approximately 7.6% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to increase by around 2.4% [6][16]. Real Estate - Real estate sales are anticipated to show a year-on-year decline of about 3.0% in May, with major cities reporting a decrease of 4.1% [15][16]. Summary - The report highlights a cautious outlook for exports and domestic demand, with specific attention to the automotive and real estate sectors. The financial landscape shows signs of slowing growth in social financing and investment, indicating potential challenges ahead for the economy [2][5][11][15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a long-term bullish outlook on gold, driven by global order restructuring and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the end of the U.S. interest rate hike cycle [2][3]. Summary by Reports Report 1: Strategic Bullish on Gold (December 2023) - Gold has been trading around $2000 per ounce for nearly three years, with a key resistance at $2050. The report argues that the global order is likely undergoing significant changes, influenced by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the waning effects of the pandemic [3]. Report 2: Unusual Pricing of Gold (May 2024) - By May 2024, gold prices reached $2400-$2500 per ounce, but traditional pricing models failed to explain this surge. The report highlights a divergence from historical pricing models, suggesting that non-traditional factors are now driving gold prices [4]. Report 3: Extreme Scenarios for Gold Prices (March 2025) - In March 2025, gold prices hit $3000 per ounce, with the report exploring five extreme scenarios that could further elevate gold prices. It argues that market perceptions of gold's potential are underestimating its tail risk in a restructuring global order [5]. Report 4: Gold Implicit Order Restructuring Index (May 2025) - Following a price increase to $3300-$3400 per ounce, the report introduces a new analytical tool to capture the portion of gold price movements not explained by traditional models. This index reflects investor expectations regarding the restructuring of global financial and political orders [6][7]. Current View on Gold - The current price surge in gold is seen as a reflection of expectations surrounding global order restructuring, drawing parallels to historical periods of upheaval. The company maintains a strategic bullish stance on gold, highlighting its value in reducing portfolio volatility [9].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信 SuperSummerSnow） 核心观点 5 月 28 日，美国国际贸易法庭（ CIT ）裁决特朗普特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（ IEEPA ）对多个国家征收的全面关税是越权行为，要求特朗普政 府在 10 天内停止加征相关关税，引发市场关注。对于市场关注的几个焦点，我们一一拆解： 1 ） CIT 的裁决影响的是所有依据 IEEPA 条款加征的关税 ，包括对中国 20% 芬太尼关税、对墨西哥和加拿大 25% 的非法移民和芬太尼关税、以及对等关 税，不受影响的是依据 232 条款加征的关键行业税，目前生效的有汽车和零部件 25% 、钢铝 25% 。 2 ）目前特朗普加征的关税仍然有效 。因为特朗普在 CIT 裁决后立即提起上诉，联邦巡回上诉法院已经批准临时暂缓令，恢复关税执行至 6 月 9 号。 3 ）后续关注点是 6 月 9 号之后联邦巡回上诉法院是否会批准长期暂缓令（暂缓执行 CIT 的关税禁令直至上诉结束） ， 如果不批准，则 IEEPA 关税全部暂 停执行，如果批准，则对现行关税没 ...

Reform Initiatives - The Chinese government is implementing reforms in various sectors, including the establishment of a modern enterprise system tailored to national conditions, with a goal to have suitable enterprises in place within approximately five years [1] - A significant reduction in credit service fees is expected to save users around 1.1 billion annually, with new fee standards set to take effect by July 2025 [3][21] - The government aims to enhance the salary distribution incentives for skilled personnel in state-owned enterprises, ensuring that their compensation aligns with management positions [23] Open Policy Measures - China has completed the upgrade negotiations for the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area 3.0 and is looking to finalize a free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council [2] - The government is encouraging foreign investment in sectors such as biomedicine and high-end manufacturing, particularly within national economic and technological development zones [2][17] Consumption and Economic Adjustment - The government plans to increase counter-cyclical adjustments and direct more policy resources towards the consumption sector to unleash significant demand potential [3][12] Industrial Development - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set a target for the digital transformation of the electronic information manufacturing industry, aiming for over 85% of key processes to be numerically controlled by 2027 [4][18] - The government is focusing on maintaining fair competition in the automotive industry and addressing issues of excessive competition [4][22] Foreign Trade and Investment - Ongoing negotiations with the U.S. regarding semiconductor export controls highlight the complexities in U.S.-China trade relations [5][20] - The government is committed to maintaining dialogue with the EU amid trade disputes, particularly as this year marks the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations [5][20] Environmental and Resource Management - By 2027, China aims to establish a comprehensive market-based system for carbon emissions and water rights, enhancing the trading mechanisms for these resources [19]

Core Viewpoint - The overall travel growth during the Dragon Boat Festival was lower than expected, potentially impacted by heavy rainfall in southern regions. However, there were two notable highlights in consumption: traditional cultural experiences and "new" consumption trends, including the performing arts economy, outdoor sports, pet economy, and self-care consumption [2][4]. Group 1: Overall Travel - Travel data during the Dragon Boat Festival showed a low growth rate, with an expected cross-regional movement of 657 million people, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, which is below the Ministry of Transport's forecast of 7.7% [11][12]. - The low travel growth may be attributed to heavy rainfall affecting travel and hospitality performance, similar to the impact seen during the May Day holiday in 2024 [12][4]. - Among different modes of transport, road passenger transport showed relatively higher growth at 3.14%, while rail, civil aviation, and water transport experienced lower growth rates of 2.3%, 1.22%, and -1.65% respectively [13][4]. Group 2: Structural Highlights - The consumption structure during the holiday revealed two main highlights: traditional cultural experiences and high growth in various "new" consumption sectors [5][15]. - Traditional cultural experiences, such as dragon boat races and folk performances, significantly boosted local tourism, with cities like Foshan seeing a 167% increase in tourism bookings [15][17]. - In the "new" consumption sector, the pet economy, outdoor sports, performing arts, and self-care consumption maintained high levels of activity. For instance, pet travel searches increased by 57.1%, and pet-friendly hotels saw a 30% price premium compared to regular hotels [15][16]. Group 3: Weekly Economic Observation - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to 6.31% as of May 25, indicating an upward trend driven mainly by infrastructure and durable goods consumption, particularly in passenger vehicle sales [6][19]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles showed a recovery with a growth rate of 16.3% in the first 25 days of May, compared to 14.5% in April [22]. - Trade dynamics indicated a significant increase in freight rates on North American routes, with the West Coast route seeing a 57.9% increase week-on-week [32][33].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 PMI 数据：制造业 PMI 有所回升 5 月制造业 PMI 为 49.5% ，前值为 49.0% 。具体分项来看： 1 ） PMI 生产指数为 50.7% ，前值为 49.8% ，回升 0.9 个百分点。 2 ） PMI 新订单指数为 49.8% ，前值为 49.2% 。 PMI 新出口订单指数为 47.5% ，前值为 44.7% 。 3 ） PMI 从业人员指数为 48.1% ，前值为 47.9% 。 4 ）供货商配送时间指数 为 50.0% ，前值为 50.2% 。 5 ） PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.4% ，前值为 47.0% 。 其他行业： 1 ） 建筑业： 5 月，建筑业商务活动指数为 51.0% ，比上月下降 0.9 个百分点。 2 ）服务 业： 5 月，服务业商务活动指数为 50.2% ，比上月上升 0.1 个百分点。 3 ）综合产出： 5 月份，综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.4% ，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点。 PMI 点评："抢出口" ...

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes a long-term bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that the current era resembles a once-in-a-century global order restructuring period [2][9] - It highlights the limitations of traditional gold pricing models, which have failed to adequately explain recent price movements [4][12] - The article introduces the Gold Implied Order Reconstruction Index (GIORI) to quantify market expectations regarding the restructuring of global financial and political orders [6][10] Group 1: Traditional Gold Pricing Models - Traditional financial theories assert that gold prices are primarily driven by real interest rates, the US dollar index, and inflation expectations [4][12] - The relationship between real interest rates and gold prices has significantly weakened since 2022, with real rates rising from -1% to 2% while gold prices increased from $1,800 to over $3,000 [13][19] - The US dollar index has shown limited explanatory power for gold price movements, as it fluctuated within a narrow range while gold prices surged over 80% [16][19] Group 2: Drivers of Global Order Restructuring - The remarkable increase in gold prices reflects market expectations of a global order restructuring, characterized by currency diversification, geopolitical reshaping, and financial market rebalancing [5][22] - Central bank gold purchases reached a 50-year high from 2022 to 2024, with net purchases of 1,080 tons in 2022, 1,051 tons in 2023, and 1,045 tons in 2024 [23] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [26][28] Group 3: Gold Implied Order Reconstruction Index (GIORI) - The GIORI aims to quantify the unexplained volatility in gold prices, reflecting market expectations of non-traditional risks associated with global order restructuring [6][31] - The GIORI index has reached its highest level since the 1970s, indicating that market expectations have surpassed traditional cyclical perspectives [7][42] - Historical peaks of the GIORI index occurred during significant geopolitical events, such as the Iranian Revolution and the 2008 financial crisis, highlighting its relevance in assessing market sentiment [46][47][48]