Core Viewpoint - The economic outlook for June and the second quarter suggests a low but stable growth trajectory, with GDP growth expected around 5.3% in Q2, supported by new domestic policies and resilient exports [2][4]. Group 1: GDP and Economic Growth - Q2 GDP growth is projected at approximately 5.3%, with industrial production growth expected at 5.9% due to equipment upgrades and resilient exports [4][11]. - Retail sector growth is anticipated to rebound, with wholesale and retail expected to grow by 6.8% in Q2, up from 5.8% in Q1 [4][11]. - High growth is expected in the information and leasing service sectors [4]. Group 2: Production Sector - June industrial production growth is expected to be around 6.0%, with a PMI production index increase to 51% [5][15]. - Truck traffic on highways shows a growth of 2.0% in June, improving from previous months [5][15]. - The automotive wholesale growth rate is projected at 14.1%, indicating strong performance in the automotive manufacturing sector [5][15]. Group 3: Demand Side - Retail sales growth is expected to temporarily decline to around 4.6% in June, influenced by holiday timing and promotional activities [6][20]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to decrease to approximately 3.4% for the first half of the year, with manufacturing investment at 8.1% and real estate investment at -11.2% [6][19]. - June export growth is expected to be around 3.5%, while imports are projected to grow by 1% [7][17]. Group 4: Financial Sector - New social financing in June is expected to reach 3.8 trillion, an increase of 600 billion compared to the previous year, with a projected growth rate of 8.8% for social financing stock [8][21]. - M2 money supply is expected to grow by approximately 7.9% year-on-year, while M1 is projected to grow by 2.9% [8][21]. - Government and corporate bond issuance is expected to total around 1.8 trillion in June, with significant net financing increases compared to the previous year [8][21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US dollar, highlighting the divergence between a weakening dollar and rising US Treasury yields, suggesting caution in interpreting these signals as indicative of a broader trend towards de-dollarization [2]. Group 1: Conceptual Clarification - Two key concepts are defined: de-dollarization transactions, which involve selling dollar assets and reflect a contraction of US asset exposure, and weak dollar transactions, which do not require reducing dollar asset exposure but rather increasing short positions on the dollar [3]. Group 2: Background Context - Background 1: Since the strong dollar cycle began in 2014-2015, overseas institutions have maintained dollar exposure to benefit from both US Treasury yield spreads and dollar appreciation. By 2024-2025, major global pension funds have reduced their dollar hedging ratios to historical lows, indicating a significant dollar exposure [4]. - Background 2: There is a positive correlation between the dollar hedging ratios of pension funds and exchange rate volatility; higher volatility leads to stronger hedging demand [4]. Group 3: Current Analysis - Following the implementation of equal tariffs on April 3, the volatility of the dollar exchange rate has increased significantly. For institutions with large dollar exposures, there are two strategies: de-dollarization transactions or weak dollar transactions. The article leans towards weak dollar transactions as the primary reality, noting no significant outflows from US equities or bonds and a rise in speculative short positions on the dollar [5]. Group 4: Future Predictions - To predict the future of the dollar, two questions are posed: whether the short positions on the dollar have been fully covered and the structure of the holders of these short positions. Current data suggests that while some institutions have raised their hedging ratios, the momentum for covering short positions may have peaked, indicating a potential end to rapid dollar depreciation [9][10]. - The concentration of dollar short positions is at a historical low, suggesting a fragile trading structure. If the US economy remains stable and tech stocks perform well, there may be a risk of a rebound in the dollar as volatility decreases [10]. - Overall, the macro environment is characterized as "internal stability with external changes," with the narrative of de-dollarization being misinterpreted. The article concludes that the weakening of the dollar is nearing its end, with potential for a period of volatility or even a rebound [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article aims to address three key questions faced by export researchers: the current month's export growth rate, the quantitative analysis of recent export anomalies, and the overall export growth rate for the year [2][15]. Group 1: Monthly Forecasting - The most practical indicator for predicting the current month's export growth is the monitoring of container throughput at Chinese ports, which is the only weekly high-frequency indicator available [4][18]. - For a relative long-term forecast, the OECD G7 composite leading indicator and export delivery value are considered useful [5]. - Current indicators suggest that while China's export growth rate is marginally weakening in June, it still shows resilience [4]. Group 2: Analyzing Data Anomalies - The scale of "export grabbing" from China is assessed through three perspectives, indicating that the overall scale is not significant, but there has been a notable increase in exports to the U.S. [8]. - The analysis shows that from March to May, China's export growth rate exceeded the average fitted value by approximately 5.8 percentage points, resulting in an "excess" export of about $50.4 billion, which accounts for 17% of the average export amount in the first five months of the year [8]. - Comparatively, the current situation differs from 2018-2019, where the U.S. did not exhibit significant "import grabbing," while this time, the U.S. has shown a marked increase in imports [8]. Group 3: Annual Growth Rate Estimation - The forecast for the annual export growth rate is projected to be between -5% (in the event of a β risk outbreak) and 0% (if β risk does not materialize) [12]. - Key indicators for tracking global trade demand include the Morgan Stanley Global Manufacturing PMI and OECD composite leading indicators, which indicate a weakening global trade demand [12]. - The analysis suggests that the current export growth may lack sustained support due to weak terminal consumer demand, despite a strong production boost from "export grabbing" [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of increased tariffs on U.S. imports, highlighting the scale, regions, and types of goods being imported as a response to tariff changes [4][5][6]. Group 1: Tariff Increases - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. rose to 7% in April, with projections of 2.3% for 2024. The effective tariff rate on imports from China increased to 37.5% in April, up from 25% in March, and is expected to drop to 10.6% in 2024. For regions outside China, the effective tariff rate rose to 3.9% in April from 1.8% in March, with a forecast of 1% for 2024 [5][9]. Group 2: Scale of Imports - U.S. imports surged by approximately $188.3 billion, accounting for 68.6% of the average monthly import value for 2024. This surge indicates a potential drag on import growth of about 9.8% over the next seven months due to demand being pulled forward [6][12]. - The share of air freight in U.S. imports increased significantly, peaking at 37.1% in the first quarter of the year, compared to an annual average of 27.6% for 2024, before slightly declining to 31.5% in April [6][12]. Group 3: Sources of Imports - The primary regions contributing to the increase in U.S. imports include the Eurozone, ASEAN, Taiwan, Australia, and India, which collectively accounted for an 11 percentage point increase in year-on-year import growth [7][15]. - The air freight share from Australia, the Eurozone, India, Vietnam, and Taiwan saw significant increases, although there was a decline in April for Australia and the Eurozone, indicating a potential decrease in import momentum from these regions [15][20]. Group 4: Types of Goods Imported - The main categories of goods that U.S. companies have been importing include electronic products, pharmaceuticals, and raw metals, which together contributed 18.5 percentage points to the year-on-year import growth from January to April [8][23]. - In April, while the growth rates for pharmaceuticals and raw metals slowed, electronic products continued to show strong demand, contributing 4.1 percentage points to the overall import growth [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The audit report highlights significant issues related to fiscal management and compliance, revealing a need for enhanced oversight and corrective measures in the use of public funds [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Audit Work Report - The audit work report is primarily focused on fiscal matters, aiming to maintain economic order, improve the efficiency of fiscal fund usage, and promote integrity in governance [4][15]. - The National Audit Office, under the leadership of the State Council, is responsible for conducting audits and reporting findings to the Premier [4][15]. 2. Key Findings from the Current Audit Work Report - The report covers eight main areas, including audit rectification, central fiscal management, departmental budget execution, and major risk assessments [6][17]. - As of March 2025, over 6,540 billion yuan has been rectified in response to issues identified in the 2023 audit, with 1,710 regulations improved and 4,120 individuals held accountable [6][21]. 3. Major Issues Identified - The report indicates that since May 2024, 430 significant violations have been discovered, involving over 1,400 individuals and 630 billion yuan, marking a notable increase in reported issues [8][21]. - Specific areas of concern include the management of special bonds, pension fund misappropriations, and the misuse of funds intended for social welfare programs [10][22][23]. 4. Detailed Observations - The audit revealed that 1,325.97 billion yuan in issues related to local government special bonds was identified, with ongoing risks of hidden debts [10][22]. - Pension funds totaling 4.14 trillion yuan were audited, uncovering 601.61 billion yuan in issues, including 414.08 billion yuan misappropriated for other expenditures [11][23]. - New findings include improper fund allocation practices, with 37.91 billion yuan reported as fraudulently claimed, and ongoing violations of central regulations [12][24]. 5. Recommendations - The report suggests enhancing macroeconomic policy coordination, deepening reforms in key economic areas, and effectively preventing major economic risks [18][21].

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文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 近一周，政策主要聚焦产业及主题投资领域。涉及"十五五"规划、国防军工、新能源材料、黄金等。 1 ）"十五五"规划 ： 6 月 25 日，总理在第十六届夏季达沃斯论坛开幕式提到，"过去 70 多年，我 们实施了 14 个五年规划，今年还将制定第 15 个五年规划"。 2 ）新能源材料 ： 6 月 23 日至 24 日，何立峰在河北调研新能源新材料产业发展，提出"持续推动 高端装备制造、智能光伏、清洁能源、新材料等企业创新发展，并综合整治内卷式竞争"。 3 ）国防军工 ： 6 月 24 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜 利 80 周年纪念活动总体安排。 9 月 3 日，北京天安门广场将隆重举行纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界 反法西斯战争胜利 80 周年大会，总书记将发表重要讲话。 4 ）黄金 ： 6 月 23 日，工信部等九部门印发《黄金产业高质量发展实施方案（ 2025-2027 年）》，提出到 2027 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI shows a slight recovery, indicating a stabilization in the manufacturing sector, particularly in the midstream equipment manufacturing industry, which is performing better than other sectors [2][4][8]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Data - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month [2][13]. - The production index increased to 51.0%, a rise of 0.3 percentage points from 50.7% [2][13]. - The new orders index rose to 50.2%, compared to 49.8% previously, while the new export orders index slightly improved to 47.7% from 47.5% [2][13]. - The employment index decreased to 47.9%, down from 48.1% [2][13]. - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.2%, showing stability from the previous month's 50.0% [2][13]. - The raw material inventory index increased to 48.0%, up from 47.4% [2][13]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI is the highest among sectors at 51.4%, showing a significant recovery of 1.8 percentage points from April's 49.6% [4][8][9]. - The construction industry business activity index for June is at 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month [15]. - The service industry business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [15]. Group 3: Price Trends - The PMI output price index for June is at 46.2%, up from 44.7%, but remains below the neutral line for 13 consecutive months [5][14]. - The construction chain's overall price index decreased by 0.8% in June, indicating continued weakness in market activity [5][12]. - High-energy-consuming industries have a PMI of 47.8%, indicating insufficient market activity [5][12]. Group 4: Expectations and Future Outlook - The manufacturing production activity expectation index is at 52.0%, slightly down from 52.5% [15]. - The construction industry business activity expectation index increased to 53.9%, up from 52.4% [15]. - The service industry business activity expectation index is at 56.0%, down from 56.5% [15].

Core Viewpoint - The current macro asset allocation logic is primarily driven by the "look at stocks to do bonds" approach, as the main liquidity improvement is due to the migration of household deposits rather than central bank monetary easing [2][9][21]. Group 1: Macro Asset Allocation Analysis - Analyzing the stock-bond relationship is crucial in macro asset allocation, where the environment can either favor "look at stocks to do bonds" or "look at bonds to do stocks" [8][13]. - In a "look at stocks to do bonds" environment, the upward movement of stock prices influences bond trading behavior, while in a "look at bonds to do stocks" environment, falling interest rates affect stock market valuations [8][13]. - The current liquidity improvement is characterized by a significant migration of household deposits to non-bank financial institutions, with approximately 6.2 trillion yuan moving in the first five months of 2025, marking the highest level since 2009 [9][21]. Group 2: Special Characteristics of Current Liquidity - The current migration of household deposits is unique as it does not follow an improvement in economic expectations, contrasting with past trends where such migrations occurred after economic recovery [3][28]. - The "stabilize the stock market" policy from the top down has limited the extent to which risk appetite can express downward movements in the stock market [4][28]. - Financial regulations established in 2017 and 2022 have heightened vigilance against financial practices that lead to asset bubbles, impacting the current liquidity dynamics [5][28]. Group 3: Implications of Current Trends - The current environment suggests that as the stock market strengthens, the risk of systemic asset price bubbles increases, leading to tighter monetary policy and pressure on the bond market [30]. - Conversely, if the stock market weakens, the central bank's focus on stabilizing market expectations increases, potentially leading to short-term dual bullish trends in both stocks and bonds [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward movements in various sectors, including consumer spending, external demand, and real estate sales. Group 1: Economic Upturn - Durable goods consumption shows an upward trend, with passenger car retail sales increasing by 24.8% year-on-year as of June 22, compared to 13.3% in May [1] - External demand is improving, as indicated by the Markit Manufacturing PMI for major overseas economies averaging around 51.1% in June, up from 50.9% in May, with contributions mainly from Japan, India, and the UK [2] - Land premium rates have rebounded from low levels, reaching 7.3% in the week of June 22, compared to an average of 3.2% over the past three weeks and 4.93% in May [3] Group 2: Economic Downturn - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has slightly declined to 7.63% as of June 22, down from 7.94% on June 15 [2] - Service consumption metrics, such as subway ridership and flight numbers, are close to last year's levels, with subway ridership averaging 77.42 million daily in 27 cities, a 0.5% increase year-on-year [2] - Real estate sales are declining, with residential sales in 67 cities showing a year-on-year decrease of 16% as of June 27, compared to a 13% decline in May [2] Group 3: Special Bonds and Interest Rates - As of June 30, 2025, new special bonds issued have reached 2.16 trillion, accounting for 49.1% of the annual issuance plan, faster than last year's 37.8% [3] - Interest rates have increased, with DR001 at 1.3683%, DR007 at 1.6968%, and R007 at 1.9201% as of June 27, showing mixed changes compared to June 20 [3]