Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a long-term bullish outlook on gold, driven by global order restructuring and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the end of the U.S. interest rate hike cycle [2][3]. Summary by Reports Report 1: Strategic Bullish on Gold (December 2023) - Gold has been trading around $2000 per ounce for nearly three years, with a key resistance at $2050. The report argues that the global order is likely undergoing significant changes, influenced by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the waning effects of the pandemic [3]. Report 2: Unusual Pricing of Gold (May 2024) - By May 2024, gold prices reached $2400-$2500 per ounce, but traditional pricing models failed to explain this surge. The report highlights a divergence from historical pricing models, suggesting that non-traditional factors are now driving gold prices [4]. Report 3: Extreme Scenarios for Gold Prices (March 2025) - In March 2025, gold prices hit $3000 per ounce, with the report exploring five extreme scenarios that could further elevate gold prices. It argues that market perceptions of gold's potential are underestimating its tail risk in a restructuring global order [5]. Report 4: Gold Implicit Order Restructuring Index (May 2025) - Following a price increase to $3300-$3400 per ounce, the report introduces a new analytical tool to capture the portion of gold price movements not explained by traditional models. This index reflects investor expectations regarding the restructuring of global financial and political orders [6][7]. Current View on Gold - The current price surge in gold is seen as a reflection of expectations surrounding global order restructuring, drawing parallels to historical periods of upheaval. The company maintains a strategic bullish stance on gold, highlighting its value in reducing portfolio volatility [9].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) ruled that Trump's imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was an overreach of authority, requiring the government to cease these tariffs within 10 days, which has raised market concerns [2][13]. Group 1: Impact of CIT Ruling - The CIT ruling affects all tariffs imposed under IEEPA, including a 20% tariff on fentanyl from China and a 25% tariff on fentanyl from Mexico and Canada, while tariffs imposed under Section 232 (e.g., 25% on steel and aluminum) remain unaffected [2][5]. - Current tariffs remain in effect as Trump has appealed the CIT ruling, and the Federal Circuit Court has granted a temporary stay, allowing tariffs to continue until June 9 [2][4]. - The key focus will be whether the Federal Circuit Court will approve a long-term stay after June 9, which could either suspend all IEEPA tariffs or leave current tariffs unchanged [2][3]. Group 2: Legal Controversies - The main legal controversies surrounding Trump's tariff policy include whether he has the authority under IEEPA to impose global tariffs without Congressional approval and whether trade deficits and fentanyl influx constitute an "unusual or special threat" [6][20]. - The CIT found that IEEPA does not grant the President unlimited tariff authority, emphasizing that tariff imposition is a power reserved for Congress [21][22]. - The court also ruled that the tariffs aimed at addressing trade deficits exceeded IEEPA's scope, suggesting that the appropriate legal framework for such tariffs would be the Trade Act of 1974 [25][26]. Group 3: Future Actions and Market Perception - If Trump ultimately loses the appeal, he may still impose tariffs using other legal provisions, such as the Trade Act of 1974, which allows for tariffs up to 15% for a maximum of 150 days [32][33]. - Market analysts generally believe that the CIT ruling will have limited impact on Trump's tariff policy, as the government has alternative channels to impose tariffs, albeit with potentially slower implementation [11][35]. - Analysts from major financial institutions suggest that while the CIT ruling introduces uncertainty, it is unlikely to significantly alter the overall outcome of U.S. trade policies [36].

Reform Initiatives - The Chinese government is implementing reforms in various sectors, including the establishment of a modern enterprise system tailored to national conditions, with a goal to have suitable enterprises in place within approximately five years [1] - A significant reduction in credit service fees is expected to save users around 1.1 billion annually, with new fee standards set to take effect by July 2025 [3][21] - The government aims to enhance the salary distribution incentives for skilled personnel in state-owned enterprises, ensuring that their compensation aligns with management positions [23] Open Policy Measures - China has completed the upgrade negotiations for the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area 3.0 and is looking to finalize a free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council [2] - The government is encouraging foreign investment in sectors such as biomedicine and high-end manufacturing, particularly within national economic and technological development zones [2][17] Consumption and Economic Adjustment - The government plans to increase counter-cyclical adjustments and direct more policy resources towards the consumption sector to unleash significant demand potential [3][12] Industrial Development - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set a target for the digital transformation of the electronic information manufacturing industry, aiming for over 85% of key processes to be numerically controlled by 2027 [4][18] - The government is focusing on maintaining fair competition in the automotive industry and addressing issues of excessive competition [4][22] Foreign Trade and Investment - Ongoing negotiations with the U.S. regarding semiconductor export controls highlight the complexities in U.S.-China trade relations [5][20] - The government is committed to maintaining dialogue with the EU amid trade disputes, particularly as this year marks the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations [5][20] Environmental and Resource Management - By 2027, China aims to establish a comprehensive market-based system for carbon emissions and water rights, enhancing the trading mechanisms for these resources [19]

Core Viewpoint - The overall travel growth during the Dragon Boat Festival was lower than expected, potentially impacted by heavy rainfall in southern regions. However, there were two notable highlights in consumption: traditional cultural experiences and "new" consumption trends, including the performing arts economy, outdoor sports, pet economy, and self-care consumption [2][4]. Group 1: Overall Travel - Travel data during the Dragon Boat Festival showed a low growth rate, with an expected cross-regional movement of 657 million people, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, which is below the Ministry of Transport's forecast of 7.7% [11][12]. - The low travel growth may be attributed to heavy rainfall affecting travel and hospitality performance, similar to the impact seen during the May Day holiday in 2024 [12][4]. - Among different modes of transport, road passenger transport showed relatively higher growth at 3.14%, while rail, civil aviation, and water transport experienced lower growth rates of 2.3%, 1.22%, and -1.65% respectively [13][4]. Group 2: Structural Highlights - The consumption structure during the holiday revealed two main highlights: traditional cultural experiences and high growth in various "new" consumption sectors [5][15]. - Traditional cultural experiences, such as dragon boat races and folk performances, significantly boosted local tourism, with cities like Foshan seeing a 167% increase in tourism bookings [15][17]. - In the "new" consumption sector, the pet economy, outdoor sports, performing arts, and self-care consumption maintained high levels of activity. For instance, pet travel searches increased by 57.1%, and pet-friendly hotels saw a 30% price premium compared to regular hotels [15][16]. Group 3: Weekly Economic Observation - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to 6.31% as of May 25, indicating an upward trend driven mainly by infrastructure and durable goods consumption, particularly in passenger vehicle sales [6][19]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles showed a recovery with a growth rate of 16.3% in the first 25 days of May, compared to 14.5% in April [22]. - Trade dynamics indicated a significant increase in freight rates on North American routes, with the West Coast route seeing a 57.9% increase week-on-week [32][33].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 PMI 数据：制造业 PMI 有所回升 5 月制造业 PMI 为 49.5% ，前值为 49.0% 。具体分项来看： 1 ） PMI 生产指数为 50.7% ，前值为 49.8% ，回升 0.9 个百分点。 2 ） PMI 新订单指数为 49.8% ，前值为 49.2% 。 PMI 新出口订单指数为 47.5% ，前值为 44.7% 。 3 ） PMI 从业人员指数为 48.1% ，前值为 47.9% 。 4 ）供货商配送时间指数 为 50.0% ，前值为 50.2% 。 5 ） PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.4% ，前值为 47.0% 。 其他行业： 1 ） 建筑业： 5 月，建筑业商务活动指数为 51.0% ，比上月下降 0.9 个百分点。 2 ）服务 业： 5 月，服务业商务活动指数为 50.2% ，比上月上升 0.1 个百分点。 3 ）综合产出： 5 月份，综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.4% ，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点。 PMI 点评："抢出口" ...

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes a long-term bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that the current era resembles a once-in-a-century global order restructuring period [2][9] - It highlights the limitations of traditional gold pricing models, which have failed to adequately explain recent price movements [4][12] - The article introduces the Gold Implied Order Reconstruction Index (GIORI) to quantify market expectations regarding the restructuring of global financial and political orders [6][10] Group 1: Traditional Gold Pricing Models - Traditional financial theories assert that gold prices are primarily driven by real interest rates, the US dollar index, and inflation expectations [4][12] - The relationship between real interest rates and gold prices has significantly weakened since 2022, with real rates rising from -1% to 2% while gold prices increased from $1,800 to over $3,000 [13][19] - The US dollar index has shown limited explanatory power for gold price movements, as it fluctuated within a narrow range while gold prices surged over 80% [16][19] Group 2: Drivers of Global Order Restructuring - The remarkable increase in gold prices reflects market expectations of a global order restructuring, characterized by currency diversification, geopolitical reshaping, and financial market rebalancing [5][22] - Central bank gold purchases reached a 50-year high from 2022 to 2024, with net purchases of 1,080 tons in 2022, 1,051 tons in 2023, and 1,045 tons in 2024 [23] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [26][28] Group 3: Gold Implied Order Reconstruction Index (GIORI) - The GIORI aims to quantify the unexplained volatility in gold prices, reflecting market expectations of non-traditional risks associated with global order restructuring [6][31] - The GIORI index has reached its highest level since the 1970s, indicating that market expectations have surpassed traditional cyclical perspectives [7][42] - Historical peaks of the GIORI index occurred during significant geopolitical events, such as the Iranian Revolution and the 2008 financial crisis, highlighting its relevance in assessing market sentiment [46][47][48]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that industrial profits in April showed a faster growth rate, primarily driven by volume improvements despite weak pricing pressures [1][16]. Summary by Sections Overall Industrial Performance - In April, the profits of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 3.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to March [16]. - Inventory levels as of April showed a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, down from 4.2% previously [16]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in April was -2.7%, slightly worse than March's -2.5% [16]. - The industrial added value growth rate in April was 6.1%, down from 7.7% in March [16]. - Revenue growth in April was 2.64%, a decrease from 4.42% in March [16]. - Profit margins in April were 5.38%, slightly up from 5.36% in the same month last year [16]. Sector Analysis - In April, the mining sector experienced a profit decline of -30.77%, worsening from -26.03% [19]. - The manufacturing sector's profit growth was 10.96%, down from 11.92% [19]. - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector saw a profit increase of 1.49%, improving from -6.13% [19]. - Within manufacturing, upstream sectors saw a decline of -4.27%, while midstream sectors grew by 21.23%, up from 7.64% [19]. Profit Insights - The profit growth in the industrial sector for the first four months of the year was 1.4%, an improvement from a -3.3% decline for the entire previous year [4]. - The increase in profits was primarily attributed to volume growth, with industrial output growth reaching 6.4% [4]. - The cumulative PPI for the first four months was -2.4%, contributing to a slight decline in both gross and profit margins [4]. - The gross margin for the first four months was 14.5%, down from 14.7% year-on-year, while the profit margin was 4.9%, down from 5.0% [4]. Midstream Equipment Manufacturing - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector had the highest profit growth among five major sectors, with a 11.2% increase in profits for the first four months, contributing 3.6 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth [5]. - Seven out of eight industries in midstream equipment manufacturing saw profit growth exceeding 10%, with the transportation equipment sector leading at 59.2% [5]. - The average added value growth for eight midstream industries was 10.8%, although seven of these industries experienced negative PPI [5]. - The overall revenue growth for midstream equipment manufacturing was 8.5%, with three industries exceeding 10% growth [5].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 近一周政策出台不多，主要关注以下内容： （一）外交：强化与欧洲、东盟国家联络 。 1 ） 5 月 20 日， 中国与东盟十国全面完成中国 - 东盟 自贸区 3.0 版谈判。 2 ） 5 月 22 日 -23 日 ，总书记先后同法国总统马克龙、德国总理默茨通电 话。在与法国总统通电话时，总书记指出，"维护国际贸易规则和世界经济秩序，践行真正的多边主 义。国际形势越是复杂，中法越要作出正确战略抉择"。 3 ） 5 月 25 日 ， 总理同印度尼西亚总统普 拉博沃会谈，"中方愿同印尼加强发展战略对接，深化高质量共建'一带一路'合作"，"坚持多边主义和 自由贸易，推动平等有序的世界多极化、普惠包容的经济全球化"。 4 ） 5 月 26 日 ， 总理将出席在 马来西亚吉隆坡举行的东盟 - 中国 - 海合会峰会。 （二）财政及项目进度。 1 ）发改委 4 月审批项目加速 。据 5 月 20 日发改委例行新闻发布会， 4 月份，发改委共审批固定资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive overview of recent economic data and events from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in manufacturing, consumer confidence, and housing sales, which indicate mixed economic signals across these regions [4][10][11]. Group 1: US Economic Data - May manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations with a preliminary value of 52.3, compared to an expected 49.9 and a previous value of 50.2 [4][10]. - April existing home sales were below expectations at an annualized rate of 4 million units, while new home sales were better than expected at 743,000 units, revised down from 724,000 units [4][10]. - The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for April matched expectations with a month-on-month change of -1%, revised from -0.7% to -0.8% [4][10]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - May manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone slightly beat expectations at 49.4, compared to an expected 49.2 and a previous value of 49 [11]. - The consumer confidence index for May recorded -15.2, better than the expected -16 and revised from -16.7 to -16.6 [11]. - April CPI final value met expectations at 2.2% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.7%, revised from a previous value of 2.4% [11]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - May manufacturing PMI showed a slight increase to 49, up from a previous value of 48.7, while the services PMI decreased to 50.8 from 52.4 [5]. - Core machinery orders for March significantly exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 13%, compared to an expected decrease of 1.6% [5]. - April CPI was slightly above expectations at 3.6% year-on-year, with core CPI at 3.5%, exceeding the expected 3.4% [5]. Group 4: Weekly Economic Indices - The US WEI index fell to 1.9% for the week ending May 17, down from 2.07% and 2.56% in previous weeks [15]. - The German WAI index also declined to -0.29% for the week ending May 18, compared to -0.08% and -0.04% in prior weeks [16]. Group 5: Demand Indicators - US Redbook retail sales showed a slight year-on-year decline to 5.4%, down from 5.8% and 6.9% in previous weeks [17]. - Global flight numbers increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with approximately 236,700 flights executed as of May 23 [20]. - US mortgage rates rose slightly to 6.86% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, up from 6.81% and 6.76% in previous weeks [24]. Group 6: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the US were slightly better than expected at 227,000, compared to an expectation of 230,000 and a previous value of 229,000 [26]. - Continued claims rose to 1.903 million, up from a previous value of 1.867 million [26]. Group 7: Price Trends - Global commodity prices saw a slight increase, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 0.2% [28]. - US gasoline prices increased to $3.04 per gallon, reflecting a 1.8% rise from the previous week [28]. Group 8: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed a slight tightening, with indices at 0.165 and 1.2 respectively [31]. - The long-term bond yield spread between Italy and Germany narrowed, while the spread between the US and Japan remained stable, and the US and Eurozone spread widened [37].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a mixed economic outlook, with some sectors showing recovery while others face declines, particularly in exports and commodity prices [2][4][30]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown a slight decline, standing at 5.03% as of May 18, down from 5.15% on May 11 [4][9]. - Infrastructure remains a key driver of economic activity, particularly in asphalt construction rates, which increased to an average of 30.58% from 26.95% [10]. - The cement shipment rate has rebounded to 41.5%, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous week [17]. Group 2: Demand and Consumption - Land premium rates have significantly decreased, with a current rate of 1.37% compared to an average of 5.5% over the previous three weeks [5][14]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have shown a slight decline, with a growth rate of 12.4% as of May 18, down from 14.5% in April [13]. - The average daily subway ridership in 27 cities remained stable at 78.88 million, consistent with last year [13]. Group 3: Trade and Exports - U.S. imports from China have sharply declined, with a year-on-year drop of 8% in the first 21 days of May, compared to a 9.9% increase in April [5][23]. - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased by 37.5% year-on-year as of May 24 [5][23]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has shown a year-on-year decline of 26.1% [21]. Group 4: Commodity Prices - Gold prices have rebounded significantly, closing at $3,351 per ounce, a 5% increase [3][30]. - Prices for coal and real estate-related commodities have weakened, with Shanxi thermal coal prices down 0.5% and rebar prices down 1.3% [6][30]. - The overall commodity price index (BPI) has decreased by 0.3% domestically, while the CRB index has increased by 0.2% internationally [30][36]. Group 5: Debt and Financing - New special bond issuance has accelerated compared to last year, with a total of 1.68 trillion yuan issued as of May 23, representing 38.3% of the annual target [6][37]. - The issuance of general and special government bonds has also outpaced last year's progress, with net financing rates of 39.4% and 42.1%, respectively [6][37].