Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) and its implications for the international monetary system, particularly in the context of the "de-dollarization" trend and the structural changes in global finance [2][25]. Group 1: Hibor Mechanism - Hibor reflects the average overnight borrowing rates among 20 major banks in Hong Kong and is influenced by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) efforts to maintain a fixed exchange rate with the US dollar [3][5]. - The HKMA's actions to stabilize the currency involve adjusting liquidity in the banking system, which directly impacts Hibor rates [5][6]. Group 2: Hibor's Unexpected Low Levels - From May to August, Hibor experienced a significant drop from over 4% to near 0%, remaining at historical lows for three months before rising again [6][10]. - The prolonged low levels of Hibor were attributed to a decrease in the attractiveness of US dollar assets, which reduced the scale of carry and arbitrage trades that typically influence Hibor [6][15]. Group 3: International Monetary System Implications - The sustained low Hibor levels are seen as a reflection of the ongoing restructuring of the international monetary system, moving from a dollar-centric model to a more diversified framework [25][27]. - The article highlights two trends in this restructuring: fragmentation, indicating a return to local preferences in capital allocation, and diversification, where investors increasingly favor alternative assets like the Chinese yuan [27][15].

Core Insights - The Chinese public REITs market has maintained a robust supply and demand dynamic since 2025, with increasing market attention and a total of 127 valid questionnaires collected during the annual market survey conducted from September 25 to September 30 [2] Group 1: Market Participants and Investment Strategies - Securities firms and insurance institutions are the main participants in the market, with over 30% of insurance and over 40% of securities firms having cumulative investments exceeding 1 billion yuan [4][11] - Institutions are diversifying their investment strategies, with a high interest in new issuance strategies, while over 30% of institutions are exploring private REITs investment opportunities [4][16] - The majority of institutions still rely on offline/public subscription and secondary market participation as their main investment methods, with a notable increase in the use of entrusted accounts for REITs investments [4][16] Group 2: Market Size and Liquidity Concerns - Market size and liquidity remain significant concerns, with many investors indicating that the market is still too small and lacks sufficient liquidity, similar to last year's survey results [5][29] - Nearly 70% of sample institutions plan to increase their REITs allocation in 2026, focusing on sectors such as consumption, data centers, and affordable rental housing [5][33] - Institutions have a cautious outlook on returns, with about 60% expecting REITs market returns to be in the high single-digit range (5-10%) for 2026 [5][33] Group 3: Private REITs and Future Outlook - Over 30% of institutions are paying attention to private REITs, which have seen a faster issuance pace this year, with 14 listed holding-type real estate ABS totaling 21.4 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [23] - Institutions perceive private REITs as having advantages such as stronger valuation stability, flexibility, and higher distribution rates compared to public REITs, although concerns about liquidity and transparency remain [23][29] - The market is expected to see a gradual increase in private REITs issuance, which could become an important part of a multi-tiered REITs market [23] Group 4: Institutional Confidence and Sector Focus - Institutions exhibit a neutral to optimistic attitude towards the recovery of underlying asset fundamentals in 2026, with a focus on stable sectors such as consumption infrastructure, data centers, and affordable rental housing [41] - The top three sectors of interest for insurance and securities firms differ slightly, with insurance firms favoring consumption, affordable housing, and water and electricity, while securities firms prefer consumption, data centers, and affordable housing [41][44]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent escalation of trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting the implications of new tariffs and export controls, and the potential market reactions and strategies for investors [2][4][20]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - On October 10, President Trump announced a 100% additional tariff on all Chinese products starting November 1, alongside new export controls on key software products, leading to significant market volatility [2][4]. - The Nasdaq index fell by 3.6%, and the VIX index surged to 22, marking the largest fluctuations since the "reciprocal tariffs" in April [2][10]. Tariff and Export Control Measures - The US has implemented additional port fees on Chinese-owned or operated vessels, starting October 14, with fees increasing over the next three years [3][4]. - China responded by imposing special port fees on US vessels, starting at 400 RMB (approximately 56 USD) per net ton, also set to increase over three years [3][4]. - China has tightened export controls on rare earth materials, which account for 61% of global mining share, affecting key industries and supply chains [4][20]. Historical Context and Market Reactions - The article outlines three phases of the current US-China tariff conflict: continuous escalation from January to April, a period of easing from May to September, and a recent re-escalation in October [7][8]. - The current market environment differs from April, with investors having more preparedness and a better understanding of potential outcomes, leading to less severe market reactions compared to previous tariff announcements [10][13]. Future Outlook - The potential for negotiation remains, as both sides have more leverage and preparation compared to earlier phases of the trade conflict. The upcoming APEC meeting may serve as a critical juncture for discussions [20][24]. - The article suggests that the high tariffs could lead to increased inflation in the US and further economic pressure in China, making a compromise more likely to avoid severe economic consequences [20][24]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully, considering the potential for short-term volatility due to the tariff developments. The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the situation leading up to the APEC meeting [25][26]. - The current market conditions, including high valuations and accumulated gains, may prompt some investors to take profits, leading to short-term fluctuations [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 stocks globally [1]. Research Insights - Daily updates on research focus and timely article selections are provided through CICC Morning Report [4]. - Senior analysts offer real-time interpretations of market hotspots via public live broadcasts [4]. Research Reports - The platform offers over 30,000 complete research reports covering macroeconomics, industry research, and commodities [9]. - It features more than 160 industry research frameworks and over 40 premium databases, enhancing the depth of analysis available [10]. Data and Research Framework - The platform includes a sophisticated AI search function that allows users to filter key points and engage in intelligent Q&A [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to transition through three phases: "fast-slow-fast," with significant implications for both domestic and international economic operations and asset performance [2][4][6]. Phase Summaries - **Phase 1 (2025Q4)**: Rapid rate cuts are anticipated due to the recent confirmation of rising inflation, with a focus on stabilizing growth over controlling inflation. The Fed may implement 3-4 consecutive rate cuts [2][4]. - **Phase 2 (2026H1)**: The pace of rate cuts is expected to slow as inflation continues to rise, necessitating a balance between growth and inflation risks. The Fed may halt balance sheet reduction to soothe financial markets [4][6]. - **Phase 3 (2026H2)**: Rate cuts may accelerate again, particularly with a potential change in Fed leadership towards a more dovish stance, and the impact of tariffs on inflation may diminish [4][6]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is currently trending towards stagflation (declining growth with rising inflation), with a higher likelihood of stagflation than recession. However, a policy-driven recovery is anticipated at some point [8][10]. - A new market scenario of overheating (rising growth and inflation) could emerge if growth turns upward during inflationary periods [10][12]. Historical Context - An analysis of past Fed rate cut cycles indicates that the average time from the initiation of rate cuts to the growth upturn is approximately 12 months. The current cycle began in September 2024, suggesting a potential growth turning point is near [12][13]. - Key economic indicators follow a specific sequence during recovery phases, with housing data being a leading indicator, while employment data tends to lag behind growth indicators [13][14]. Market Implications - The current macroeconomic environment is conducive to a "loose trading" strategy, particularly in the context of U.S.-China liquidity resonance, which is expected to benefit various asset classes [17][18]. - October is projected to remain a favorable period for liquidity, with a continued focus on equities, particularly in China, as the market is expected to maintain a relatively high risk appetite [23][26]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - The company recommends an overweight position in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and gold, while maintaining a standard allocation in U.S. and Chinese bonds. The focus should be on sectors with lower valuations and higher technological content, such as the ChiNext and Hang Seng Tech [23][26]. - Given the anticipated dollar depreciation, various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities, are expected to perform well [23][26].

Core Insights - The podcast focuses on exploring the forefront of robotics development through in-depth conversations with outstanding entrepreneurs and investors in China [4]. Group 1: Industry Trends and Insights - The founder of Songyan Power, Jiang Zheyuan, discusses the industrial trend background behind entrepreneurship [5]. - The podcast addresses the current state of the humanoid robot industry, comparing it to the internet sector in its early days [6][7]. - It highlights the competition within the robotics sector, identifying both challenges ("危") and opportunities ("机") [7]. Group 2: Product Development and Future Vision - Songyan Power's product direction and future development vision are outlined, emphasizing the importance of innovation in humanoid robotics [6]. - The discussion includes the necessary policy support for the development of the robotics industry [6][7]. - The podcast also explores the future product models and business routes for the robotics sector [6]. Group 3: Talent and Investment Dynamics - The podcast examines the changes in investor logic over the past two years, reflecting on the evolution of the robotics industry [7]. - It discusses the competition for talent within the robotics field and shares experiences relevant to students entering the industry [7].

Core Viewpoint - The new round of policy financial tools, announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on September 29, aims to mobilize approximately 5 trillion yuan in new investments, potentially alleviating the "asset shortage" in credit markets [2][3][4]. Group 1: Background and Purpose - The new policy financial tools were first proposed during the Politburo meeting on April 25, 2023, marking the third historical round of such tools, with previous rounds launched in 2015-2017 and 2022 to address economic downturn pressures [3][7]. - This round differs from previous ones as it focuses on supporting technological innovation, expanding domestic demand, and addressing local fiscal pressures, rather than solely on infrastructure [3][4][7][8]. Group 2: Funding Allocation - The scale of the new policy financial tools is set at 500 billion yuan, similar to the 740 billion yuan from 2022, but with a different focus on sectors such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, and low-altitude economy, rather than primarily infrastructure [4][11]. - A portion of the funds will also support private enterprises, reflecting a strong policy direction towards bolstering the private economy [4][11]. Group 3: Financial Policy Coordination - The new policy financial tools will be implemented through a collaboration of fiscal and monetary policies, with policy banks using Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) to invest project capital, leveraging additional funding from fiscal or corporate sources [3][14][16]. - The expected leverage ratio is around 4 times, meaning that the 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools could mobilize approximately 4 trillion yuan in bank loans [4][16]. Group 4: Impact on Credit and Investment - The tools are projected to stimulate about 4 trillion yuan in loans, increasing loan growth by 1.5 percentage points and social financing growth by 1.0 percentage points, while also potentially driving fixed asset investment growth by around 10 percentage points [4][23]. - The anticipated increase in loans could help reverse the declining trend in medium to long-term corporate loans, which fell from 18% in June 2023 to 8% in August 2023, thereby alleviating the "asset shortage" in the banking sector [4][23][26].

Core Viewpoint - The market is showing strong structural characteristics, with a focus on growth sectors, and the trend of manufacturing upgrades is expected to create structural investment opportunities in the medium to long term [2][10]. Industry Performance Summary 1) Energy and Basic Materials - Non-ferrous metals continue to rise, while other cyclical products show mixed price performance. In September, the prices of thermal coal, cement index, and glass index increased by 1.3%, 0.6%, and 2.4% respectively, while prices for coking coal, coke, rebar, iron ore, and chemical indices fell by 2.2%, 1.2%, 2.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% respectively [3]. - The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut in September aligns with market expectations, leading to a rapid increase in gold prices, while industrial metals and some minor metals (cobalt, tungsten) also saw price increases [3]. 2) Industrial Products - The energy transition supports demand for electrical equipment, and policies aimed at reducing competition are catalyzing price rebounds across various segments of the photovoltaic industry. In August, excavator domestic sales grew by 22% year-on-year, and exports increased by 13% [4]. - The new energy sector is experiencing significant growth, with wind and solar installations increasing by 72% and 65% year-on-year respectively [4]. 3) Consumer Products - The growth rate of home appliance sales has slowed, with sales of washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners all showing a 1% year-on-year increase in August. The textile and apparel sectors are also facing challenges in both domestic and overseas demand [5]. - The average daily room rate (ADR), occupancy rate (OCC), and revenue per available room (RevPAR) in the hotel sector all saw year-on-year declines of 0.6%, 1.5%, and 2.1% respectively [5]. 4) Technology - The strong demand for AI computing power continues to be validated, driving growth in sub-sectors such as optical modules, switches, and servers. In July, major cloud service providers adjusted their 2025 capital expenditure guidance upwards [6]. - The semiconductor industry remains robust, with global semiconductor sales increasing by 20.6% year-on-year in July, and China's semiconductor sales growing by 10.4% [6]. 5) Financials - The insurance sector saw a 9.6% year-on-year increase in premium income in August, while the total assets of insurance companies grew by approximately 17.5% year-on-year [7]. - The real estate sector remains at a low point, with a 0.5% year-on-year decline in property sales area in September, despite a slight month-on-month increase [7]. 6) Recommendations - Focus on AI computing and robotics-related industries, which are expected to remain attractive until a significant change in industry conditions occurs [8]. - Consider sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, batteries, and non-ferrous metals, which are still in a favorable supply-demand cycle [8]. - Monitor the "14th Five-Year Plan" related fields, especially as the upcoming meeting in October may provide insights into policy directions [8].

中金研究 国庆假期期间，海外市场虽无大的动荡，但也事件频发，例如美国政府因拨款法案未通过而停摆导致关键经济数据如非农暂停公布、高市早苗当选日 本自民党新总裁引发日本股市大涨、法国总理勒科尔尼意外辞职推动黄金新高美元上涨，及中东以色列地缘局势的新变化等等。我们梳理了假期期间 主要事件、经济数据与资产表现特征，供投资者参考。 点击小程序查看报告原文 资产表现：黄金与日股新高，油价大跌，美元反弹，港股冲高回落 全球资产方面， 美国政府关门引发市场对美国财政前景的担忧，加之法国政局再度动荡，推动比特币和黄金双双新高，Comex和现货黄金价格相继突破 4000美元/盎司；美股虽同样面临扰动，但在科技股的支撑下仍表现稳健，标普500和纳斯达克小幅收涨0.4%和0.6%，美债利率先低后高，整体持平于 4.16%左右，美元也随后因法国政局动荡导致欧元走弱而反弹，也因此导致美元与黄金同涨。 与此同时，高市早苗的当选提振刺激预期，日股收涨4.2%，日元贬值2.6%，日本国债利率由1.66%升至1.68%，10月加息概率也从68%大幅下滑至19%；受 OPEC+或11月再次增产的影响，布伦特原油价格一度跌至64美元/桶附近，成为假 ...

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanna Takichi as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to lead to her becoming the new Prime Minister of Japan, with a strong inclination towards "Abenomics," favoring monetary easing, yen depreciation, and fiscal expansion [3][4]. Election Results - On October 4, the LDP held a presidential election where Takichi emerged victorious after two rounds of voting, contrary to media predictions that favored her opponent, Shinzo Koizumi [4][5]. - In the first round, Takichi received 119 votes from party members, while Koizumi received 84 votes, leading to a second round where Takichi secured 149 votes from national assembly members compared to Koizumi's 145 [15]. Reasons for Takichi's Victory - Takichi's popularity among LDP members was a significant factor, as she garnered substantial support in both the party member and local party branch votes [5]. - Koizumi's lack of clear policy proposals and cautious election strategy contributed to his defeat, as he failed to resonate with the party's broader membership [5]. Economic and Financial Policy Proposals - Takichi is seen as a staunch supporter of Abenomics, advocating for monetary easing and fiscal expansion [3][7]. - Her proposed tax policies include raising the income threshold for tax exemptions, implementing cash subsidies for low-income families, and abolishing temporary gasoline tax rates, reflecting a strategy for cross-party collaboration [8]. - Takichi has expressed a preference for maintaining a loose monetary policy, indicating that the Bank of Japan should decide on specific monetary tools while emphasizing the negative impacts of rapid interest rate hikes on investment and housing [9]. Currency and Fiscal Policy - Takichi appears to favor a weaker yen, arguing that yen depreciation benefits export industries and contributes positively to Japan's economic strength [10]. - She supports fiscal expansion and deficit financing, focusing on strategic investments to stimulate economic growth and increase tax revenues, while maintaining that as long as nominal growth exceeds government bond interest rates, debt-to-GDP ratios can remain stable [11]. Short-term Market Reactions - The unexpected nature of Takichi's election is likely to lead to significant price fluctuations in Japanese assets, with expectations of yen depreciation, rising stock prices, and a steepening yield curve for Japanese bonds [14]. - Historical trends from previous elections suggest that markets may react similarly, with potential increases in the Nikkei index and further depreciation of the yen against the dollar [14].