中金研究 中国房地产政策的框架自2022年以来已经展现了诸多变化，往前看其仍将动态应对实体市场的变化 与挑战。眼下尽管中国房地产政策工具的丰富程度已然不低，但鉴于仍需在外部经济环境不确定性 加大、行业内部压力仍待疏解、以及各地区要素条件有所分化的背景下，持续推进止跌回稳，未来 中国房地产政策可能如何施力，还可以做哪些考虑，我们在此简述我们的一些思考与建议。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 止跌回稳的前置条件究竟是什么？我们认为或许首先是促进资产盘活，恢复行业流动性。 从国际比较 的视角看，中国本轮房地产市场的调整过程具有典型性，除了销售量价下行，库存升高以外，一个主要 的挑战是市场流动性不足，这既包括资产交易的难度加大，也包括企业的货币资源和现金流条件相对紧 张。然而从一个市场修复的时序来看，可能首要的是向居民和企业部门两端通过有效渠道注入适当的流 动性，然后可以渐进的推动实体市场供需格局与资产价格预期改善。其次，在比较大幅度的市场调整 中，尤其市场还处于去杠杆前期的阶段，针对企业端的流动性改善，以形成资产负债表企稳的路径，可 能相较于对需求侧的动员，是更有针对性的举措。 对于中国房地产政策， ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 中金研究 CICC Research 一文看懂五一假期数据 >>点击图片查看全文<< 五一假期数据出炉。据商务部，五一假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长6.3%，增速相较24年国庆（4.5%）、25年春节（5.4%）呈环比提 速。消费品类上以旧换新备受欢迎，演唱会、潮玩等体验型消费亦表现较好。据交通运输部[1]数据，"五一"假期前4日全社会跨区域人员流动量同比 增长约7.2%（vs.春节假期8天+5.8%），尤其铁路、水路和民航增幅环比提升较明显。我们观察到长线游和异地自驾出行规模扩容，差异化、品质化 趋势延续，出入境游表现亮眼。影视院线方面，2025年五一档票房表现相对平淡，建议关注后续暑期档影片定档进展。本文中，我们从轻工零售美 妆、旅游酒店及餐饮和传媒角度为大家详细解读。 2025.05.06 | 徐卓楠 林思婕 张雪晴等 02 中金研究 CICC Research 联合解读"一揽子金融政策"新闻发布会 >>点击图片查看全文<< 5月7日上午，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况[2]，央行、金融监 ...

中金研究 当前白酒板块面临一定的需求缺口，我们认为未来白酒行业走出周期底部离不开需求的支撑，我们对长期白酒需求量价变化进行深度探讨、通过对需 求周期复盘总结需求回升期的特征，并分析当下白酒的需求情况。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 长期需求如何展望？ 1）量： 我国白酒饮用主力（20-60岁男性）人口数在2020年达最高值4.3亿后下降，中国人口研究与发展中心预测25-30年饮酒主力人 口数或将小幅下降；在"喝的少，喝的好"消费趋势及中小产能出清影响下，人均销量16-24年CAGR-9.2%，参考发达国家经验，我们预计未来人均饮用量 以每年低单位数速度收缩。 2）价： 居民收入增长支撑，加之供给集中度持续提升，1999-24年白酒单价CAGR10%，我们预计未来五年白酒价格或仍将延 续中-高个位数复合增速。同时我们发现2013年以来居民财富效应与白酒价格相关性提升，而白酒在社交场景的刚需消费属性能够对冲财富效应带来的周 期波动性，使白酒价格能持续平稳上升。 复盘白酒需求周期有何特征？ 1） 2013年以来白酒消费需求从政商务引领为主逐步转向多元需求共同驱动是其核心特征之一，居民财富效应对白酒消费影 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, aiming to address issues in the public fund industry and achieve a turning point in high-quality development within three years [1][7]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The plan emphasizes building a public fund industry that aligns with the essence of Chinese modernization, focusing on strong regulation, risk prevention, and high-quality development [8]. - It aims to shift from a focus on scale to prioritizing investor returns, targeting a significant improvement in the industry's quality within three years [8]. Group 2: Optimizing Operational Models - The plan proposes establishing a floating management fee mechanism linked to fund performance, with a target for leading institutions to issue at least 60% of such funds in the next year [8][19]. - It highlights the need to strengthen the constraint of performance benchmarks, ensuring strict regulation of how fund companies select and disclose these benchmarks [9][10]. - Enhancements in transparency are proposed, including revising information disclosure templates for actively managed equity funds to improve readability and relevance [2][18]. Group 3: Improving Evaluation Systems - The plan outlines reforms to the performance evaluation mechanism for fund companies, emphasizing long-term performance and investor returns [20][24]. - It suggests that the weight of fund investment return indicators should not be less than 50% for company executives and 80% for fund managers [20][24]. - The plan aims to reshape industry evaluation and award systems, encouraging a focus on long-term performance over short-term metrics [20][24]. Group 4: Increasing Equity Investment Proportion - The plan aims to enhance regulatory guidance and institutional supply to significantly increase the scale and proportion of equity investments in public funds [25][26]. - It notes the historical decline in the scale of actively managed equity funds, with a recovery expected following the implementation of the plan [25][26]. Group 5: Guiding Long-Term Investment Behavior - The plan emphasizes the establishment of a counter-cyclical adjustment mechanism to dynamically adjust product registration based on market conditions [29][30]. - It aims to curb speculative behaviors such as high turnover rates and style drift, promoting a culture of long-term investment [29][30]. Group 6: Optimizing Fund Registration Processes - The plan proposes optimizing the registration mechanisms for different types of public fund products, including a rapid registration process for stock ETFs [33][34]. - It aims to reduce the average registration time for various fund types, with a target of completing ETF registrations within five working days [33][34]. Group 7: Encouraging Fund Companies to Invest in Their Own Equity Funds - The plan increases the weight of self-purchase of equity funds in the evaluation system for fund companies by 50% [4][39]. - It reports that in Q1 2025, fund companies invested 3.9 billion yuan in net purchases of public non-cash products, with a significant portion in bond funds [4][39]. Group 8: Establishing Research and Investment Capability Evaluation Systems - The plan calls for the establishment of a research and investment capability evaluation system for fund companies, incorporating both internal and external perspectives [45][46]. - It emphasizes the importance of enhancing core research and investment capabilities within the industry [45][46]. Conclusion - The implementation of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" is expected to significantly enhance the public fund industry's role in serving the real economy and stabilizing the capital market, leading to a healthier and more sustainable development trajectory [47].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between real estate prices and consumption in China, emphasizing that the primary driver of real estate value is land, which has monopolistic and financial attributes. This leads to a strong cyclical nature in real estate, where rising prices often correlate with increased private sector leverage, particularly among low-income households [1][2][3]. Group 1: Real Estate and Consumption Dynamics - The relationship between housing prices and consumption is not straightforward; both may be driven by credit expansion. In the early stages of a financial cycle, credit expansion raises housing prices, which in turn boosts credit, potentially accelerating macroeconomic consumption [2][3][12]. - During the financial cycle's downturn, housing price adjustments lead to a contraction in credit and consumption, indicating that macro policies should focus on fiscal measures to address demand shortages, such as supporting social welfare and housing for families [2][3][12]. Group 2: Wealth Effect and Consumption Factors - Key factors influencing consumption include current wealth, income, income expectations, and consumption propensity. The relationship between these factors and housing prices varies across different economic contexts and stages of real estate development [3][14]. - The wealth effect suggests that rising housing prices can increase the wealth of homeowners, potentially boosting consumption. However, this is often accompanied by rising debt levels, which may not sustain long-term consumption growth [3][14]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparative Analysis - Historical experiences from the US and Japan show that consumption tends to perform well during housing price increases and weakens during declines. In China, consumption growth was not significantly boosted during the rapid housing price increases from 2016 to 2019, likely due to rising leverage suppressing consumption [4][15][16]. - The article highlights that in the US and Japan, during housing price increases, consumption growth is typically stronger in services compared to durable and non-durable goods. In contrast, during price declines, consumption shifts towards essential services and non-durables, with durable goods facing more pressure [5][44][47]. Group 4: Structural Changes in Consumption - The article notes that as housing prices rise, consumption patterns shift, with services like healthcare and entertainment seeing higher growth rates compared to basic necessities. This trend is observed in both the US and Japan, where the demand for convenience and upgraded services has increased [31][59][66]. - In China, the consumption growth rate has been declining alongside rising housing prices, indicating a potential disconnect between wealth accumulation through real estate and actual consumption behavior [26][28][30].

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 LLM在个股投研的应用：因子挖掘、个股复盘 随着资本市场信息生产机制的加速迭代，上市公司每日披露的公告、舆情、产业链动态等非结构化数据呈现指数级增长。传统人工复盘模式受限于信息处 理效率与认知边界，已难以满足投资者对海量增量信息的实时追踪与价值提炼需求；成熟的基本面选股逻辑如何高效地转化为定量因子也是困扰投资者的 重要问题。本报告提出，通过大语言模型（LLM）技术构建智能化个股复盘框架和基本面因子生成框架，期望通过技术赋能的方式助力投资者实现投研 工作流的提质增效。 主观逻辑因子化和个股复盘或为LLM在个股投研中较好的应用场景。 利用LLM构造基本面选股因子的挖掘框架，可以发挥LLM在推理能力和创造性方面 的优势，提高主观选股逻辑到量化因子的转化效率。利用LLM构建智能化个股复盘体系，可以发挥LLM在处理非结构化数据及观点总结能力方面的优 势，可有效抽取每日关键信息，高效复盘每日最新信息，输出带有一定置信度评估的初步结论，为投资者提供决策参考锚点。 基于LLM的基本面因子挖掘框架：发挥LLM的创造力 关键点：Prompt引导因子创造方向。 在基于LLM的基本面因 ...

中金研究 美联储5月会议按兵不动，符合市场预期。货币政策声明指出失业率上升与通胀走高的风险均已加 剧，暗示政策环境面临"滞胀"风险，但由于当前经济数据仍然稳健，美联储也不急于行动。我们认 为，美联储短期内不会降息，尤其不会先发制人降息，未来的降息路径将取决于关税谈判：若谈判 未取得实质性进展、关税居高不下，美联储可能被迫开启"衰退式"降息，年底前或降息100个基点； 但若谈判达成有效成果、关税降低，美联储或推迟至12月降息，降息幅度也将更加温和。 当然，这也会带来一个潜在风险：美联储货币政策可能"落后于曲线"。由于经济数据本身具有滞后性， 等到经济增长和劳动力市场明显放缓的迹象在数据中显现，再启动降息可能已错失最佳时机。但在当前 背景下，美联储确实也没有更好的选择。面对由关税引发的负面供给冲击，贸然提前宽松可能推高通 胀、加剧风险。美联储现在只能优先保证通胀不出现风险，选择一条损失相对较小的政策路径。 对于未来的货币政策路径，我们认为将取决于关税谈判。 我们维持此前设定的两种情景预测：第一种 情形是，贸易谈判未取得实质性进展，关税在90天暂停期过后仍然居高不下。这将显著压制消费与企业 投资，拖累经济走弱甚至陷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of predicting the adjustment lists of A-share indices in advance, which can provide substantial benefits for various investors, including arbitrage and cross-border investors [1][2]. Group 1: Index Adjustment Predictions - A-share indices undergo regular adjustments in June and December each year, allowing for predictions based on trading and financial data from the previous year [1][5]. - The report predicts the adjustment lists for several indices, including CSI 300, CSI 500, and others, for June 2025 based on component stock selection rules [1][5]. Group 2: Impact of Passive Fund Growth - The rapid increase in passive fund sizes since 2023 has enhanced the significance of index adjustment effects, particularly for indices like CSI 300 and STAR 50 [2][8]. - The average excess returns for newly included stocks in various indices have improved post-announcement, with CSI 300 and SSE 50 showing increases to 4.64% and 6.77% respectively in the 10 days following the announcement [2][12]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Adjustment Effects - The decline in the significance of index adjustment effects in overseas indices post-2010 is attributed to factors such as sample size, index migration, and liquidity [3][51]. - In A-shares, index migration and pre-announcement trading behaviors negatively impact the inclusion effects, while high impact coefficients positively influence them [3][51]. Group 4: Future Excess Return Potential - The current trends indicate that the future A-share market may still have excess return potential from index adjustment events, as key indicators like circulation market value and impact coefficients show no downward trend [4][51]. - High impact coefficient strategies have demonstrated strong performance, achieving annualized returns of around 10% from 2019 to 2024 [4][56]. Group 5: Strategy Development - The strategy of predicting index inclusion samples in advance has shown significant enhancement in returns, with annualized returns increasing from 2.5% to 5.7% when holding positions before announcements [52][56]. - A strategy focusing on high impact coefficient stocks has yielded an annualized return of 8.1% since 2010, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.2% during the same period [56].

中金研究 5月7日上午，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况[1]，央行、证监会、金融监管总局发布一揽子增量政策，及时 出手，有力稳定市场信心。向前看，宏观经济和政策走势如何？对各类资产有何影响？中金公司总量以及行业为您联合解读。 宏观 及时出手，稳定信心 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 图表：螺纹钢表观消费量 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 本次金融政策调整有利于稳定信心。 在面对关税影响时，无论是企业还是市场，面临的最大问题都是不确定性。一方面，中国经济有长期增长空间，规 模大、韧性足，中国的A股市场的估值也并不贵；但另一方面，关税影响可能带来经济增长的下行压力，对短期的企业经营和市场投资都带来较大扰动。 经济出现走弱苗头，金融政策方面推出一揽子宽松政策，包括调整政策利率（调整政策利率在市场看来面临各类约束），及时出手有利于稳定市场信心。 从具体政策措施来看，降准释放流动性，缓解资金压力， 大体在市场预期范围之内。今年以来社融增速不断上升，存量社融增速从去年年底的8.0%上升 到8.4%，政府债发行节奏较快、贷款投放也超市场预期，这就导致资金面相对紧张。央行宣布，自2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump on the global market, particularly focusing on the Chinese market and its recovery trends following the initial shock [1][3]. Market Performance Summary - Following the announcement of tariffs on April 2, the Hong Kong stock market experienced significant volatility, with a notable drop on April 7 that erased all gains for the year. However, by May 2, the Hang Seng Tech Index rebounded by 19.1%, while MSCI China, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index saw rebounds of 13.6%, 13.5%, and 13.3% respectively. The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 had smaller rebounds of 5.9% and 5.0% [1]. - Sector performance from April 8 to May 2 showed that Information Technology (+29.0%), Healthcare (+19.2%), and Consumer Discretionary (+14.3%) led the gains, while sectors like Banking (+4.9%), Utilities (+5.6%), and Energy (+5.9%) lagged behind [1]. Industry Analysis Framework - The article proposes an industry analysis framework based on demand sources, categorizing industries into three main types: 1. Industries primarily dependent on the U.S. market, which face significant challenges in finding alternative demand. 2. Industries with demand from markets outside the U.S., which are less directly affected by U.S. tariffs. 3. Industries with domestic demand, which are influenced by domestic policy support [4][6]. Impact of Tariffs on Different Industries - Industries with primary demand from the U.S. are categorized based on their ability to find alternative markets and their bargaining power. Sectors like Media, Software Services, and Textiles have shown resilience due to higher profit margins and U.S. import dependency, while smaller firms in shipping and medical supplies face greater challenges [6][10]. - Industries with demand from other markets, particularly those with established market shares and competitive advantages, are expected to perform better. Sectors such as Technology Hardware and Home Appliances have shown potential for growth in non-U.S. markets [11][14]. - Domestic demand-driven industries, particularly in consumption and infrastructure, are closely tied to government policy support. The article highlights the importance of fiscal measures to mitigate external shocks [18][20]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - The article draws parallels with the 2018-2019 trade tensions, noting that the current market dynamics reflect similar patterns of initial decline followed by recovery phases. The sectors that are less dependent on U.S. demand have shown more resilience, while those heavily reliant on U.S. markets have faced significant declines [21][25]. - The potential impact of tariffs on GDP and corporate profits is discussed, with estimates suggesting that a significant drop in exports to the U.S. could lead to a decline in GDP growth and a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for Hong Kong stocks [34][35]. - The article concludes with a projection of market indices under different scenarios, emphasizing the need for policy support to counterbalance the negative effects of tariffs and the importance of sector-specific strategies for investors [37].