Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing the investor experience in public funds as a key goal in the regulatory framework, highlighting the buyer advisory business as a crucial element for the development of China's asset management industry, drawing lessons from the mature U.S. advisory market [1][2]. Industry Market - The U.S. advisory industry has seen robust growth driven by increasing household assets, rising pension management needs, and a growing number of public fund products, leading to a strong demand for advisory services [2][10]. - The number of advisory firms has increased from over 6,500 in 2000 to more than 21,000 by 2024, with SEC-registered advisory firms reaching 15,906 by the end of 2024 [10][11]. Business Development - The client base has expanded significantly, with individual clients growing from fewer than 4.54 million in 2000 to over 58 million by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 11.2%, compared to 3.0% for institutional clients [3][24]. - The primary business models include portfolio management and financial planning, with a growing trend towards advisory recommendations and pension consulting [3][29]. - Fee structures are predominantly based on assets under management, performance-based fees, hourly charges, and fixed service fees, with commission-based fees declining due to competitive pressures [3][32]. Investment Behavior - Equity investments (listed stocks and ETFs) are the most significant asset class in advisory portfolios, followed by fund assets, which have been increasing in proportion [4][35]. - The rise of robo-advisors has gained attention, with a mixed model of "human + technology" being favored over purely automated approaches [4][37]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has evolved, with a clear establishment of leading firms, while competition remains fierce among mid-tier firms [4][43]. - The top 10 advisory firms have increased their market share from 16% in 2003 to 24.2% by 2024, indicating a consolidation trend in the industry [43][45]. Case Studies of Leading Advisory Firms - Vanguard Advisers focuses on individual clients, combining traditional and digital advisory services, managing over $300 billion by the end of 2024 [51]. - Betterment, established in 2009, has become a leading robo-advisor with a management scale of $56.4 billion, emphasizing low investment thresholds and a diverse service offering [53][54].

点击小程序查看报告原文 近年来中国制造业国产化提升。而跨地区比较来看，中国制造业国产化也是主要地区中最高的。我们认为，不同于传统的进口替代战略，供给优势推动中 国制造业国产化提升，体现为出口产品相对于进口产品竞争力的不断提升。一是中国制造业国产化提升可能伴随部分产品的价格竞争力有所上升，二是中 国出口产品相对于进口产品的范围也在扩大。 近年来中国制造业国产化提升。 我们在 《"准平衡"复苏|2025年下半年宏观经济展望》 中计算了近年来中国制造业国产化率，根据统计局和海关总署数据 推算，从2012到2024年，中国制造业国产化率[1]由87.3%上升到了92.0%，呈现稳步提升态势，尤其是疫情后的近三年来更是呈现加速上升态势。分制造 业行业来看，从2012到2024年，仪器仪表、通信设备计算机和其他电子设备、专用设备分别提升40.0、29.8、12.1个百分点，提升幅度较高；从绝对水平 来看，2024年这三个行业的国产化率水平是所有制造业行业中最低的，分别为72.0%、76.5%、86.0%，而所有制造业行业中国产化率最高的三个行业分别 是电气机械和器材、金属制品、纺织品，2024年国产化率分别为99.1%、 ...

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, Hong Kong's GDP grew by 3.1% year-on-year and 1.9% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a faster economic recovery compared to Q4 2024 [2][5] - Domestic demand showed a decline in consumption but a positive turnaround in investment, with private consumption expenditure down by 1.1% year-on-year, while fixed capital formation increased by 2.8% [2][5][8] - External demand saw a rebound in goods exports, which grew by 8.4% year-on-year, and service exports increased by 6.6% [5][9][10] Employment and Inflation - The unemployment rate in Q1 2025 was 3.2%, a slight increase from Q4 2024, but still at a low level [13] - The overall consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.6% year-on-year, reflecting moderate inflation [14][15] Currency and Interest Rates - The Hong Kong dollar strengthened in Q1 2025, with the exchange rate remaining within the strong-side convertibility zone [16][17] - The benchmark interest rate remained unchanged in Q1 2025, while HIBOR rates declined significantly, leading to expectations of lower deposit rates [20][54] Stock Market Activity - The Hong Kong stock market continued to recover in Q1 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising above 24,000 points, supported by policy initiatives and increased trading activity [22][23] - Average daily trading volume increased to HKD 240.4 billion, up from HKD 186.1 billion in Q4 2024 [23] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in Hong Kong showed an upward trend in transaction volume, with new and second-hand home sales increasing by 36% and 19% year-on-year, respectively [3][28] - Residential rental yields rose to approximately 3.7%, driven by stable prices and increasing rents [3][28] Banking Sector - The banking sector experienced a 4.7% increase in customer deposits compared to the beginning of the year, with a decline in the loan-to-deposit ratio to 55.5% [41][42] - The net interest margin may face pressure due to declining HIBOR rates, but banks are adjusting deposit rates to mitigate this impact [54][57] Investment Opportunities - The rebound in external demand and the recovery in the financial services sector are expected to support continued economic growth [10][22] - The real estate market's stabilization and potential for inventory reduction present investment opportunities in the property sector [28][33]

Core Viewpoint - eSIM technology is expected to gain momentum due to its advantages in size, cost, security, and convenience, aligning with trends in consumer electronics miniaturization and the rise of the Internet of Things (IoT) [1][3][16]. Development of eSIM - The evolution of telecom cards has transitioned from magnetic cards to embedded SIM cards, with eSIM poised to eliminate physical card slots through Over-The-Air (OTA) technology, catering to the demand for thinner devices and expanded IoT applications [2][9][12]. Advantages of eSIM - eSIM offers benefits such as space-saving in devices, reduced supply chain costs, enhanced security, and improved user experience through remote configuration and multiple operator profiles [3][17][18]. - The global forecast predicts approximately 1 billion eSIM-enabled smartphones by the end of 2025, increasing to 6.9 billion by 2030, with IoT connections using eSIM technology expected to grow from 22 million in 2023 to 195 million by 2026 [3][12][19]. eSIM Industry Chain - The eSIM industry chain encompasses chip design, platform management, operator services, device integration, and end applications, with significant collaboration among various stakeholders to meet early market demands [4][20][23]. - Key players in chip design include companies like NXP, STMicroelectronics, and Qualcomm, while domestic firms in China are also gaining traction in the eSIM market [23][24]. Challenges in Adoption - The willingness of operators to support eSIM technology is crucial, as concerns over customer retention and the need for system restructuring may hinder adoption [18][32]. - The penetration rate of eSIM in devices remains low, with only 21.3% in smartphones and 5.2% in wearables as of 2023, indicating significant growth potential [18][19]. Future Outlook - The demand for eSIM is expected to accelerate by 2025, driven by the increasing miniaturization of consumer electronics and the growing need for IoT devices [19][30]. - Major smartphone manufacturers are actively integrating eSIM technology into their products, with Apple leading the way in the market [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance since Q4 2024, significantly outperforming the A-share market, but faces challenges such as pulse-like rebounds and concentration in a few sectors, making it difficult for investors to achieve excess returns. However, precise timing and understanding of market rhythms can lead to substantial gains [1][2]. Industry Rotation Context - The market has experienced several rounds of rebounds driven by macroeconomic factors, including fiscal policy shifts and the rise of AI technology. Key phases include: 1. The "924" policy shift led to a rally in non-bank and real estate sectors, focusing on total policy [1]. 2. The emergence of "DeepSeek" post-Spring Festival revalued AI-related tech and internet leaders, driven by industry trends [1]. 3. The tariff situation in April spurred growth in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, influenced by industry catalysts and liquidity [1][2]. Macro Environment Analysis - The current market dynamics are characterized by a combination of abundant liquidity and structural challenges, leading to index fluctuations and active structural trends. The macroeconomic backdrop includes: - Continued credit contraction in the private sector and limited fiscal stimulus, which restricts overall credit cycle expansion while supporting market stability [8][9]. - The emergence of new growth points, particularly in AI and new consumption sectors, which contribute to the active structural market [9][10]. Investment Strategy Insights - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with stable or improving return on equity (ROE). Key insights include: - Stable returns are found in sectors like banking and utilities, which maintain consistent ROE, while growth opportunities lie in technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have shown significant ROE recovery [18][19]. - The analysis of trading concentration, southbound capital flows, and valuation metrics is crucial for identifying sector rotation opportunities [22][23]. Trading and Positioning Dynamics - The analysis of trading dynamics reveals: - High trading concentration in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, with recent declines in AI sector concentration [23][24]. - Southbound capital flows have favored new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating strong investor interest in these sectors [32][34]. - The increase in short positions in certain sectors suggests a shift in investor sentiment, highlighting the need for caution in trading strategies [36][37]. Valuation Considerations - Valuation analysis indicates that while high-dividend sectors are under scrutiny, technology and new consumption sectors are experiencing valuation recovery. Key points include: - The AH premium threshold is set at 125%, which serves as a benchmark for high-dividend stocks, while technology and new consumption sectors are aligning with their ROE [44][45].

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap style has outperformed large and mid-cap styles in the A-share market year-to-date, with expectations for continued superiority despite potential volatility in the second half of the year [1][6]. Group 1: Analysis Framework - The analysis framework for judging A-share style rotation includes major signals such as macroeconomic direction, industrial upgrade trends, and market sentiment, with small-cap stocks favored during innovation-driven phases [2][3]. - Auxiliary signals include capital market construction direction, investor structure, valuation levels, and liquidity, which can influence the rotation between small and large-cap stocks [3][4]. Group 2: Recent Performance and Factors - Since late September, a series of policies aimed at stabilizing growth have emerged, contributing to the relative strength of small-cap stocks, particularly in sectors like AI and technology [5][6]. - The investor structure has shifted, with increased activity from individual investors, as evidenced by a rise in financing balances from approximately 1.3 trillion yuan to around 1.8 trillion yuan [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The small-cap style is expected to face increased volatility in the second half of the year but is likely to continue outperforming large-cap stocks due to favorable macroeconomic conditions and ongoing industrial trends [6]. - Current valuation and trading metrics indicate that small-cap stocks have not yet reached extreme levels, suggesting room for further performance [6].

Group 1: Stablecoin Impact - The recent regulatory developments in the US and Hong Kong regarding stablecoins have garnered market attention, highlighting their role in stabilizing prices by pegging to other assets, typically fiat currencies [3] - Stablecoins are expected to enhance cross-border payments by making them faster, cheaper, and more convenient, while also potentially challenging the dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency if other countries issue stablecoins not pegged to the dollar [3] - Relevant companies in the stablecoin development space include bank IT service providers, telecom operators, cryptocurrency exchanges, and financial institutions facilitating stablecoin transactions [3] Group 2: Dollar and US Stock Market Relationship - The concept of "de-dollarization" has gained traction, but there are misconceptions about equating a weaker dollar with de-dollarization and a weaker dollar with falling US stocks [8] - Historically, a weaker dollar has often benefited US stocks, as evidenced by the current situation where despite a weak dollar, US stocks are nearing new highs [8] - The dollar is expected to strengthen slightly in Q4, with the potential for US stocks to outperform again, despite the prevailing narrative around de-dollarization facing challenges [8] Group 3: Internet Industry Outlook - The internet industry has entered a new investment cycle after a period of cost-cutting, with AI, overseas expansion, and instant retail emerging as key focus areas [18] - Investors are advised to consider the uncertainties of future investments, balancing short-term financial performance with long-term growth potential [18] - The need for a buffer against external environmental fluctuations is emphasized, as innovation and risk-taking are inherent to the internet sector [18]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the significant resource advantages of South America, particularly in copper, iron, and lithium, and highlights the active involvement of Chinese mining companies in the region [1][2][6] - Peru is identified as the third-largest copper producer globally, with copper reserves of 120 million tons, accounting for 12% of global reserves, and a production of 2.76 million tons, also 12% of global output [2][4] - Brazil's iron ore reserves are substantial, with 3.4 billion tons and an annual production of 440 million tons, making it the second-largest globally, with high-grade iron ore crucial for the steel market [9][11] Group 2 - Chinese mining companies face various challenges in South America, including community relations, environmental regulations, and infrastructure limitations [14][15] - In Peru, community issues have led to significant operational disruptions, with over 600 days of road blockades affecting mining operations [15] - Brazil's mining sector is under strict environmental regulations, especially following past mining disasters, necessitating a balance between resource efficiency and compliance [17] Group 3 - The article discusses the importance of enhancing ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) capabilities for Chinese mining companies as they expand internationally [22][24] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is seen as a driving force for mining development in South America, providing opportunities for Chinese companies to leverage their technical strengths and experience [24][25] - The exploration of South American mining by Chinese companies represents a new phase of internationalization, characterized by local adaptation and collaboration with foreign partners [25][27]

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins are private currencies pegged to fiat currencies, with USD stablecoins resembling a narrow banking model where the issuer pays zero interest on liabilities while earning interest on safe assets used for redemption [1][2][3] Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value, primarily USD stablecoins like USDT and USDC, which account for over 90% of the total stablecoin market [4][5] - The operation of stablecoins is similar to narrow banking, where they hold low-risk, high-liquidity assets to ensure redemption without engaging in traditional banking practices [7][8] Group 2: Economic Mechanism and Demand Factors - The supply of stablecoins is highly elastic, driven by demand rather than interest income, as holders are willing to forgo interest for the convenience provided by stablecoins [12][13] - Factors influencing demand for stablecoins include currency substitution effects, traditional cross-border trade payments, and the need for liquidity in cryptocurrency trading [14][15][16] Group 3: Cost Reduction and Competitive Advantages - Stablecoins can lower costs primarily in cross-border payments due to their competitive market structure and the ability to bypass traditional banking systems [9][10][11] - Compared to existing payment systems, stablecoins do not offer significant advantages for domestic transactions, as established platforms like WeChat Pay and Alipay already dominate the market [9][10] Group 4: Future Development Potential - The growth potential of USD stablecoins is closely tied to the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, benefiting from network effects and regulatory arbitrage [19][20] - However, the expansion of stablecoins may face challenges, including regulatory responses from other countries and the inherent risks associated with private issuance [21][22] Group 5: Policy Implications - The development of USD stablecoins highlights the need for regulatory frameworks to address the inherent contradictions between private profit motives and the public good of payment systems [31][32] - For China, leveraging the scale of its digital payment platforms and promoting the use of digital currencies in cross-border payments is crucial to countering the influence of USD stablecoins [33]

Core Viewpoint - The internet industry has entered a new investment cycle since 2025, with AI, overseas expansion, and instant retail becoming hot topics. Innovation and risk-taking are inherent to the internet's DNA, and while there is optimism about the incremental benefits of investments, a balance between short-term and long-term strategies is necessary [1]. Group 1: Internet Industry Trends - The "classical internet" approach is becoming outdated as the focus shifts from user numbers and transaction volumes to core profits, especially as the market matures and capital becomes more cautious [3]. - The industry is actively investing in AI, global expansion, and instant retail, but there is a need to account for uncertainties in future investments, particularly regarding financial health during periods of heavy investment [4]. Group 2: Gaming Industry Insights - The Chinese gaming market saw a 18% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, with mobile gaming growing by 20% to 63.6 billion yuan [6]. - The "search, fight, retreat" gameplay has revitalized the shooting game sector, attracting competitive and growth-oriented players, leading to significant market increments [8]. - The PC gaming market also grew by 6.85% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating a collaborative growth between PC and mobile gaming [8]. Group 3: Advertising Industry Developments - The overall online advertising market grew by 15% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a notable differentiation in growth rates among platforms [10]. - AI is enhancing advertising efficiency, with companies like Meta and Tencent leveraging AI to improve ad conversion rates and user engagement [15]. Group 4: E-commerce Sector Analysis - The e-commerce market is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year in 2025, driven by government subsidies and a shift from price wars to differentiated competition [26][28]. - Instant retail is seen as a new growth channel, although it is unlikely to disrupt the existing e-commerce market structure due to high fulfillment costs [29]. - The collaboration between platforms like Xiaohongshu and major e-commerce players aims to enhance transaction efficiency and brand visibility [33]. Group 5: Cloud Computing and AI Integration - The cloud computing sector is benefiting from increased AI demand, with a 19% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025 [42]. - Major cloud providers are focusing on building ecosystems around AI applications, which is expected to drive future growth [45]. - The demand for AI-driven solutions is anticipated to increase, particularly in sectors like automotive, finance, and public services [46].