中金研究 我们提出，中国猪业已步入新范式：猪价、增长、投资新范式。我们认为传统猪周期规律逐步失效，"振幅收敛、长度缩短、波动下降"特征强化，源 自后非瘟时代规模化快速提升及固定资产冗余背景下产业分工重塑，近期"反内卷"监管政策调控强化了这一特征。相应地，产业及投资逻辑已变，龙 头因内生增长动能、分红能力更强，成长与价值稀缺性均在凸显。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 猪价新范式：振幅收敛、长度缩短、波动下降，传统猪周期规律失效。1）后非瘟时期传统猪价规律不 再应验 ，期货市场多次错判。 能 繁 存栏不再与10 个月后的猪价拐点相对应；期货市场对4Q23/3Q24/1Q25等猪价预测偏离达4/4/2元/公斤。 2）新范式特征不断强化。振幅收敛： 2018-2024年三轮猪价快速 上涨的最大涨幅分别为314%/148%/58%； 长度缩短： 2006-2021年期间猪周期长度较为规律，均约4年，2021年以来猪周期长度多为1-2年； 波动下降： 波动较非瘟前阶段性加大，但非瘟后已逐年下降。 猪价新范式由何而来？规模化提升叠加猪场产能相对冗余，产业分工重塑。1）振幅收敛源自规模化率提升。 规模企业周期下行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging trend of "deposit migration" among residents in China, which is contributing to increased activity in the A-share market, as evidenced by the recent rise in the Shanghai Composite Index and trading volumes [2][3]. Summary by Sections Deposit Migration Trends - Recent data indicates that from 2022 to 2024, residents' cumulative new deposits reached 48.7 trillion yuan, with a 47.6% increase in savings deposits, outpacing nominal GDP growth [2]. - In July, there was a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 trillion yuan in new resident deposits, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 1.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in deposit preferences [2]. - The growth rate of household demand deposits has rebounded to 6.8% as of July 2025, while time deposit growth has declined from 14.9% to 11.5% [2]. Reasons for Deposit Migration - The macro liquidity environment is relatively loose, with the 10-year government bond yield below 1.8% and the 1-year LPR at 3%, making traditional savings less attractive [3]. - The A-share market has become more appealing due to a lack of high-yield investment options, with the dividend yield of A-shares remaining significantly higher than that of 10-year government bonds [3]. - The market has shown signs of recovery, with the total return of the Wind All A Index exceeding various cost lines, indicating a positive earning effect that attracts new investors [3]. Historical Performance During Deposit Migration - Historically, periods of deposit migration have correlated with upward trends in the A-share market, as seen in 2009 and 2014-2015 [4]. - Specific sectors tend to outperform during these periods, such as technology and non-bank financials, driven by macroeconomic trends and policy support [4]. - The article notes that deposit migration often occurs after a market rally, highlighting the importance of earning effects in driving investor behavior [4]. Future Outlook - The trend of deposit migration is expected to continue, with potential funds available for market entry estimated between 5 to 7 trillion yuan [5]. - The article suggests focusing on sectors with high growth potential and performance validation, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries, as well as financial services that benefit from increased market activity [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments to the Hang Seng Index and its implications for investors, highlighting the inclusion and exclusion of specific stocks and the expected capital flows resulting from these changes [2][3][5]. Group 1: Hang Seng Index Adjustments - The Hang Seng Index has included China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart, with respective weights of 1.44%, 0.51%, and 0.22%, increasing the total number of constituent stocks to 88 [3]. - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has added Pop Mart with a weight of 2.10%, while Jitu Express has been removed, maintaining the total number of constituent stocks at 50 [3]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw no changes, keeping its 30 constituent stocks unchanged [3]. Group 2: Capital Flow Implications - For the Hang Seng Index, the expected capital inflows from the newly included stocks are approximately $160 million for China Telecom, $68.74 million for JD Logistics, and $45 million for Pop Mart, with respective inflow durations of 4.4 days, 3.5 days, and 1.0 day [3]. - The potential capital outflow from China Bank due to weight changes could reach $12 million, with an outflow duration of about 0.6 days [3]. - In the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Pop Mart is expected to bring in $15 million, with an inflow duration of approximately 0.3 days, while Jitu Express may see an outflow of about $4.993 million over 1.2 days [4]. Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Connect Adjustments - The article anticipates 20 new stocks to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with 19 stocks likely to be removed, aligning closely with previous predictions [5]. - The potential new additions include companies such as China Foods, Caocao Travel, and Nanshan Aluminum International, while removals include companies like Xirui and Youkang Vision [5]. Group 4: Implementation Timeline - The adjustments will be implemented on September 5 and will officially take effect on September 8, with passive funds expected to rebalance their portfolios on the implementation date, leading to significant trading volume increases [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the U.S. dollar's hegemony is not diminishing but is being undermined by the U.S. government's excessive debt issuance and the politicization of its "safe asset" status, which erodes global investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries [2][27][28]. Group 1: Foundation of Dollar Hegemony - The foundation of dollar hegemony lies in the consensus around U.S. Treasuries as a "safe asset," characterized by long-term value retention, liquidity, and negative beta properties during crises [3][6]. - The concept of "exorbitant privilege" refers to the unique advantages the U.S. enjoys as the issuer of the world's primary reserve currency, allowing it to issue debt to cover trade deficits without significant repercussions [4][11]. Group 2: Manifestations of Dollar Hegemony - Dollar hegemony manifests in three key privileges: low-interest financing, the ability to roll over debt without repayment, and enhanced fiscal space during crises [9][10][13]. - Low-interest financing results from the high liquidity and quality of U.S. Treasuries, leading to a "convenience yield" that lowers the cost of borrowing for the U.S. [10][11]. - The U.S. can sustain high levels of debt without immediate repayment obligations, effectively engaging in a "Ponzi-like" financing model, as long as interest rates remain below economic growth rates [13][14]. Group 3: Current Status of Dollar Hegemony - The current status of dollar hegemony is challenged by the U.S. government's excessive debt issuance, which has pushed the debt-to-GDP ratio above 120%, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [27][28]. - The politicization of U.S. Treasuries, exemplified by the freezing of foreign reserves, has created uncertainty about their status as a "safe asset," potentially leading to a loss of confidence among global investors [28][29]. - The absence of "ultimate buyers" for U.S. debt, as countries diversify their reserves away from Treasuries, poses a significant risk to the maintenance of the dollar's hegemonic status [30].

Strategy - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, with a current probability of 92% according to CME futures, leading to discussions on its impact on the U.S. and Chinese markets. The short-term effect is seen as positive for China, but this benefit may be limited and not the primary driver. Two ways to amplify this benefit include implementing more aggressive monetary and fiscal easing and identifying structural opportunities between the U.S. and China, particularly in sectors related to real estate and commodities that may benefit from increased demand due to the rate cut [5][10]. Macroeconomy - There is a significant market expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut, but internal divisions within the Fed suggest caution. The current economic risks in the U.S. include "stagflation," which a rate cut may not effectively address. The focus of monetary policy should remain on stabilizing inflation rather than succumbing to political pressures for short-term growth [10]. Strategy - A-shares are currently evaluated as being within a reasonable valuation range, with no signs of being overvalued. However, increased trading volume may lead to short-term volatility. Historical trends indicate that while short-term fluctuations may occur, they typically do not affect mid-term market trends. Investment recommendations include focusing on sectors with high performance and earnings validation, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries, as well as financial sectors benefiting from increased retail investment [12]. Strategy - The A-share market has outperformed the Hong Kong market in the second half of the year, with significant increases in major indices. The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 3700 mark, and daily trading volumes have returned to over 2 trillion yuan. The positive performance is attributed to improved market liquidity and the effects of policies aimed at reducing competition. The report analyzes the strengths of both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks to help investors understand the fundamental performance of both markets [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformation of investment research services through the establishment of the "CICC Insight" digital research platform, which aims to integrate knowledge aggregation, ecosystem building, and AI-assisted decision-making to lead the intelligent revolution in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Digital Transformation Phases - Foundation Phase (Knowledge Aggregation): The platform has integrated research from over 30 research teams, including reports, events, key indicators, research frameworks, and financial models [3]. - Empowerment Phase (Ecosystem Building): The platform has established a financial technology service ecosystem, collaborating with nearly 30 leading institutional clients through localized deployment or API integration, covering various client segments such as public funds, private equity, insurance, asset management, banks, and enterprises [4]. - Leap Phase (AI-Assisted Decision-Making): The platform has developed the CICC Insight model, which offers AI search, data retrieval, and intelligent meeting minutes to meet institutional clients' research needs and assist in decision-making [5]. Group 2: Differentiation and Functionality - The CICC Insight platform has launched over 120,000 data indicators, 200+ industry frameworks, and 800+ individual stock frameworks, processing over 3 million data entries daily to provide in-depth fundamental support and forward-looking insights for investment decisions [6]. - The platform incorporates deep professional research logic, linking macroeconomic data with research viewpoints and frameworks, enhancing the understanding of economic indicators [9]. - The AI research tools are designed to assist professional institutional researchers in efficiently conducting research across various dimensions, including total market, industry, and individual stocks [10]. Group 3: Client-Centric Approach - The platform offers diverse collaboration models, such as SaaS accounts, embedded systems, and localized deployments, to co-create a new chapter in digital finance with clients [11]. - Feedback from clients, such as a private equity fund manager, highlights the platform's ability to provide timely access to quality sell-side services, transforming the availability of research resources for smaller investment institutions [11]. Group 4: Compliance and Innovation - The technology team emphasizes the challenge of balancing innovation and compliance, developing an internal risk control system that transitions from passive response to proactive warning while adhering to regulatory standards [12][14]. - The CICC Insight model, developed through extensive collaboration with over 100 analysts, aims to provide high-quality, professional responses to client inquiries by mid-2025 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of rural areas in understanding contemporary Chinese economic and social development, highlighting the research conducted by CICC Global Institute to analyze rural revitalization and income distribution changes in China [4][5]. Group 1: Research and Initiatives - CICC Global Institute has conducted extensive research across 23 provinces, 67 districts, and 218 towns, visiting over 330 villages to document changes in rural areas [4]. - The institute launched the "Field Dialogue" program to discuss rural revitalization, inviting experts to analyze challenges and pathways in rural development [5]. Group 2: Income Distribution Trends - Over the past decade, the overall income disparity in China has decreased, correlating with an aging population, as income differences among working-age individuals are larger compared to retirees [6]. - The social security system for the working-age population is currently inadequate, with limited support and coverage compared to the more robust system for retirees [7]. - China provides a relatively high level of support for retirees, with investment in retirement benefits exceeding GDP levels [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of multi-asset products in the context of China's regulatory push for high-quality development of public funds, emphasizing the need for long-term absolute return capabilities in fund products [2][9]. Group 1: Overview of Multi-Asset Products - The U.S. multi-asset index market has evolved significantly since the Pension Protection Act of 2006, which established target date funds as default investment options for retirement plans [4][12]. - Various types of multi-asset indices have emerged, including constant proportion, risk parity, target risk, target date, and macro rotation indices, each with distinct methodologies and asset allocation strategies [14][18][20]. Group 2: Current State of Multi-Asset Products in China - Domestic actively managed multi-asset products are characterized by an increase in quantity but lack significant scale, indicating a disconnect between fund managers' intentions and investors' acceptance [5][6]. - Performance issues have contributed to low investor acceptance, with many active multi-asset products underperforming their benchmarks over the past two and a half years [5][6]. Group 3: Future Development Paths - The article suggests that "indexation" could be a viable strategy for the development of multi-asset products in China, which could reduce the complexity of benchmark selection and management pressure [5][6]. - Future development may involve enhancing the diversity of underlying indices and promoting the adoption of multi-asset index products, primarily focusing on constant proportion and target risk index products [6][20]. Group 4: Performance Analysis of U.S. Multi-Asset Indices - The article highlights that the best-performing U.S. multi-asset indices in terms of risk-adjusted returns include the S&P MARC 5% Index, S&P MAESTRO 5 Index, and S&P PRISM ETF Tracker, with the latter achieving an annualized return of 9.7% since 2010 [20][22]. - The performance of these indices varies significantly based on market conditions, with risk parity indices often outperforming in volatile years and macro rotation indices excelling during periods of high inflation [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for cooling solutions is increasing due to the rising power density of AI chips and servers, with liquid cooling expected to replace air cooling as the mainstream solution by 2026, reaching a market size of $8.6 billion globally [2][3]. Group 1: Liquid Cooling Market Dynamics - The global AI liquid cooling market is projected to grow rapidly, with a forecasted market size of $8.6 billion by 2026, driven by the increasing power density of AI chips and servers [2][3]. - The power density of AI servers is expected to exceed 1MW per cabinet by 2029, highlighting the need for efficient cooling solutions [2][3]. - The liquid cooling market in China is anticipated to grow by 67% year-on-year in 2024, reaching $2.37 billion, with a CAGR of 46.8% from 2024 to 2029 [3][42]. Group 2: Advantages of Liquid Cooling - Liquid cooling systems offer higher cooling efficiency and reduced system power consumption compared to traditional air cooling, making them a preferred choice as power density increases [2][22]. - The cooling efficiency of liquid cooling is significantly higher than that of air cooling, with water's thermal conductivity being over 23 times greater than that of air [22]. - Liquid cooling allows for higher density deployment of computing units, reducing the physical space required and improving overall system performance [22][25]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Developments - Major cloud service providers are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with the top four North American cloud companies expected to reach $366.1 billion in total capital expenditures by 2025, reflecting strong demand for AI infrastructure [7]. - Companies like Alibaba and ByteDance are ramping up investments in AI and cloud computing infrastructure, with Alibaba planning to invest over $50 billion in these areas over the next three years [8]. - The liquid cooling technology is being rapidly adopted by leading server manufacturers, with companies like Supermicro and HPE launching liquid-cooled server solutions [41][43]. Group 4: Liquid Cooling Technology Types - Liquid cooling can be categorized into indirect contact (cold plate cooling) and direct contact (immersion and spray cooling), with cold plate cooling being the most mature and widely adopted technology [3][30]. - Cold plate cooling systems are expected to lead the market due to their minimal impact on existing infrastructure and superior cooling performance compared to air cooling [3][30]. - Immersion cooling, while offering the best cooling performance, presents higher technical challenges and is still in the exploratory phase [3][30]. Group 5: Energy Efficiency and Cost Savings - Liquid cooling systems can significantly reduce energy costs in data centers, with potential savings in operational costs due to lower energy consumption compared to air cooling systems [25][29]. - The total cost of ownership (TCO) for liquid cooling solutions is expected to be lower than that of air cooling, as they can reduce the need for additional cooling equipment [25][29]. - As data center energy efficiency becomes a regulatory focus, liquid cooling solutions are positioned to meet stringent PUE requirements, enhancing overall energy utilization [17][20].

Macro Economic Outlook - Indonesia's GDP growth accelerated to 5.12% in Q2 2025, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 4.8%, driven by strong household spending and infrastructure investment [2][8] - Household consumption increased slightly to 4.97% year-on-year, while investment growth reached 6.99%, the highest in four years, supported by major infrastructure projects like the Jakarta metro expansion [2][8] - To sustain this growth momentum, policies should focus on cautious monetary easing, fiscal stimulus for household spending, and strategic trade reforms to attract foreign investment and diversify exports [2][8] Tariff and Trade Agreements - Starting August 2025, the U.S. will impose a 19% "reciprocal tariff" on Indonesia, positioning Indonesia favorably among ASEAN countries and alleviating short-term export risks [3][21] - Indonesia has signed several agreements with the U.S., including zero tariffs on key minerals and a $34 billion MoU for energy and agricultural products, while negotiations on palm oil and rubber exports are ongoing [3][21] Fiscal Stimulus and Monetary Easing - In June-July 2025, Indonesia launched a $1.5 billion fiscal stimulus plan, the second round of measures this year, aimed at boosting domestic demand through transportation discounts and social assistance [4][22] - The central bank has adopted a moderately easing monetary policy, reducing the benchmark interest rate from 6.25% in Q2 2024 to 5.5% in Q2 2025, with expectations of further cuts to 5.3% in Q3 2025 [4][24] State-Owned Enterprise Restructuring - Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, is restructuring over 60 state-owned enterprises, focusing on the mining and energy sectors to enhance efficiency and competitiveness [5][25] - The restructuring aims to reinvest dividends into downstream industries and renewable energy, positioning state-owned enterprises as drivers of industrial upgrading and global supply chain integration [5][26] Capital Market Dynamics - Despite attracting over $1 billion in the bond market this quarter, Indonesia's stock market has seen a foreign capital outflow of $3.8 billion year-to-date, reversing the $1.2 billion inflow in 2024 [6][27] - The Indonesian rupiah has depreciated by 1.6% year-to-date, becoming one of the weakest currencies in Southeast Asia, primarily due to global volatility and domestic policy uncertainties [6][27] Industry Allocation - Short-term investment opportunities are seen in defensive assets such as essential consumer goods, while financial services and infrastructure sectors are expected to benefit from Danantara's restructuring and fiscal expansion [7][29] - Long-term prospects favor the energy and mining sectors, which are likely to benefit from industrialization and state-owned enterprise reforms led by Danantara [7][29]