Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing political influence of the Trump administration over the Federal Reserve, particularly through recent personnel changes that could undermine the Fed's independence and affect monetary policy decisions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Importance of the Board of Governors - The Federal Reserve Board of Governors consists of 7 members with a 14-year term, designed to minimize political interference [3]. - The President has the authority to fill vacancies but requires "just cause" to remove members, which typically refers to serious misconduct rather than policy disagreements [3][4]. - Control over the Board can indirectly allow the President to influence the appointment of regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents, thereby impacting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and monetary policy [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Current Trends - Historically, the power to veto or dismiss regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents has never been exercised, but recent political divisions within the Board suggest a shift towards increased politicization [4]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve has been challenged during periods of significant political pressure, particularly in the 1960s and 1970s when fiscal dominance was prevalent [5]. Group 3: Potential Future Actions by Trump - If Trump gains control of 4 votes on the Board, he could significantly influence FOMC personnel decisions [6]. - The expected steps include securing a majority on the Board before the 2026 regional Federal Reserve Bank president elections, replacing current presidents, and establishing a dovish team aligned with Trump's policies [6]. - This could lead to the implementation of accommodative monetary policies, such as interest rate cuts and quantitative easing [6]. Group 4: Asset Implications - The article suggests that fiscal dominance may lead to a weaker dollar and benefit assets like gold, while also positively impacting emerging market equities [7]. - The anticipated economic recovery, coupled with low interest rates, could elevate inflation expectations and support sectors such as manufacturing, military, and energy infrastructure [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent improvement in the Chinese stock market, emphasizing the importance of understanding the financial cycle perspective to explain the market's positive performance despite ongoing economic downward pressure [2][5]. Group 1: Financial Cycle vs Economic Cycle - The financial cycle adjustment leads to a significant deterioration in balance sheets, while the economic cycle adjustment has a relatively smaller impact on balance sheets [6][9]. - In the financial cycle adjustment phase, the stock market may experience a "reallocation" effect driven by balance sheet changes, whereas in the economic cycle adjustment, the stock market's recovery is more synchronized with economic improvements [12][11]. - The ideal policy mix differs between the two cycles; the financial cycle requires more fiscal stimulus, while the economic cycle relies more on monetary policy [7][30]. Group 2: Three-Step Process of Stock Market Recovery - The recovery of the stock market post-financial cycle adjustment can be divided into three steps: 1. Housing market adjustment and deterioration of private balance sheets, leading to an increase in the proportion of safe assets [3][12]. 2. Policy intervention to stabilize growth and improve private balance sheets, increasing the attractiveness of risk assets relative to safe assets, resulting in a rise in the stock market [3][12]. 3. Economic recovery, transitioning the stock market from being driven by reallocation effects to being driven by earnings [3][12]. Group 3: Factors Supporting Stock Market Rebound - Several factors support the current rebound in the Chinese stock market, including accelerated technological advancements and a correction of overly cautious market expectations regarding the medium to long-term economic outlook [3][47]. - The government's increased focus on the economy, housing market, and stock market has led to a perception that downside risks are limited [3][47]. - The decline in the cost-effectiveness of safe asset allocations has motivated investors to increase their allocation to risk assets, further supporting the stock market [3][47]. Group 4: Comparison with International Experiences - The article draws comparisons with the U.S. financial cycle, noting that the U.S. stock market recovery post-financial cycle adjustment occurred earlier than the recovery of nominal GDP and the housing market [17][15]. - The U.S. experience shows that stock prices may recover before economic indicators due to improvements in corporate balance sheets, even when the economy has not yet shown signs of recovery [11][21]. - Japan's experience illustrates that addressing debt issues is crucial for stock market recovery, as the Japanese market did not stabilize until after significant debt problems were resolved [41][43]. Group 5: Implications for China - The financial cycle adjustment in China is expected to have a lesser impact on various sectors' balance sheets compared to the U.S. and Japan during their respective financial crises [51][56]. - The heavy debt burden on local governments in China poses challenges, but improving balance sheets could support corporate development and enhance stock market potential [56][53]. - The article suggests that the ongoing structural improvements in the Chinese economy, particularly in innovation, may lead to a more resilient market compared to past financial cycle adjustments in other countries [56][58].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the Shanghai Composite Index, reaching a nearly 10-year high, is primarily driven by capital inflows rather than significant improvements in domestic fundamentals or unexpected stimulus policies. This indicates a divergence between economic stability and market enthusiasm, suggesting that the relationship between market performance and capital flow is complex and interdependent [2][3][10]. Market Review Since the Beginning of the Year - The market has experienced a three-phase journey since the beginning of the year, with a notable decline in the US dollar and a strong performance in global equities, particularly in emerging markets and Chinese assets [4][5][6]. - The first phase (January to March) saw a narrative shift, leading to a revaluation of Chinese assets, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 30% and A-shares showing moderate gains, driven by technology sector performance [4]. - The second phase (early April) was marked by panic due to unexpected tariff announcements, resulting in significant declines in global risk assets, including a 13% drop in the Hang Seng Index [5]. - The third phase (mid-April to present) has been characterized by improved tariff expectations and a declining dollar, which has driven a global stock market rally, with A-shares leading the way [6][10]. Analysis of Bull Market Drivers - The report identifies several popular hypotheses regarding the drivers of the current bull market, including: 1. **National Team Put Option Theory**: The buying of ETFs by state-owned entities has provided support to the market, but this alone does not explain the sustained upward trend [10]. 2. **Domestic Economic Policy Adjustment**: While macroeconomic policy shifts have stabilized the market, expectations for stimulus have declined since late last year, indicating that policy adjustments are not the primary driver of the bull market [10][11]. 3. **Low Interest Rate Drive**: Although lower interest rates have made equities more attractive, the relationship is complex, as rising risk premiums can offset the benefits of lower rates [10][12]. 4. **Household Deposit Migration**: The significant increase in household savings since 2022 may have contributed to stock market investments, but this is seen as a reaction to prior market performance rather than a primary cause [14][16]. 5. **Dollar Depreciation**: The decline of the dollar has supported A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, but historical data shows that dollar movements do not consistently correlate with Chinese stock performance [16][17]. 6. **Innovation Narrative Reversal**: The emergence of DeepSeek and advancements in military and innovative pharmaceuticals have reshaped the narrative around Chinese innovation, contributing to market optimism [17][19]. Market Outlook - The ongoing restructuring of the global monetary order is viewed as a potential core driver of the current bull market, with implications for capital flows and asset pricing [31][32]. - Despite the current market enthusiasm, the sustainability of this rally will depend on macroeconomic policy support and the underlying fundamentals of the Chinese economy [34].

Core Viewpoint - The AI server power supply market is projected to become a trillion-yuan market, with rapid growth expected between 2025E and 2027E, driven by advancements in GaN/SiC technology and the adoption of 800V HVDC and SST architectures [2][3]. Market Size and Growth - The AI server power module market is expected to reach $74 billion in 2025E, $150 billion in 2026E, and $325 billion in 2027E, with a CAGR of 110%. The AI server power chip market is projected to grow from $55 billion in 2025E to $154 billion in 2027E, with a CAGR of 67% [4][6]. - The global AI server power market (chip basis) is anticipated to grow from approximately $55 billion in 2025 to $154 billion in 2027, driven by the continuous ramp-up of NVIDIA's NVL72 and other high-power ASIC models [6][39]. Key Components and Directions - The AI server power supply system can be divided into three layers: power supply system (UPS, HVDC, PDU), AC-DC conversion (PSU, PMC, BBU), and DC-DC conversion (PDB, VRM). The core drivers are high power density, high efficiency, and intelligent management [5][13]. - Future developments in AI server power supplies are expected to focus on three main directions: the upgrade of power supply architecture, the enhancement of core power devices, and the intelligentization of power management [9][10]. Incremental Growth Areas - The main incremental growth areas in the AI server power supply industry include: 1) PSU and DC-DC benefiting from GaN/SiC penetration, leading to increased value [10]. 2) The transition to 800V HVDC and SST architecture, which is expected to drive power system upgrades [10]. 3) The increasing importance of PDU and BBU in high power density and intelligent management scenarios [10][18]. Component Value Breakdown - The estimated value of the NVL72 server power system is approximately $70,855, with key components valued as follows: PSU at $9,647, BBU at $7,200, PDB at $4,500, and VRM at $5,783 [28][29]. - The market for DC-DC converters is projected to grow from $13.61 billion in 2025 to $28.47 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 9.66% [21]. Competitive Landscape - The UPS market is expected to maintain high demand due to its critical role in ensuring power continuity and efficiency in AI data centers, despite the rise of HVDC systems [15][16]. - The market for GaN power devices is becoming increasingly competitive, with significant growth expected as companies focus on scaling production and integrating supply chains [24].

中金研究 " 固收 +" 基金本质上是一种混合资产配置型产品，因其涉及资产类型多元，投资策略手段丰富，而肩负着市场对于 " 稳中求进 " 的收益诉求或者 " 涨多跌 少 " 的期待。因此我们在优选 " 固收 +" 基金时，核心目标是把握好风险和收益之间的微妙平衡 —— 于进取处博增益，于波动中守安宁。 点击小程序查看报告原文 "固收+"基金：构建穿越周期/高波进攻的FOF组合 因子测试：从投资能力评价到未来收益预测。 在前序研究中，我们已初步搭建起"固收+"基金的投研评价体系，本篇我们落地实际投资优选，测试基于历 史信息构建的指标对于基金未来收益的预测效果。考虑到"固收+"基金的特性，我们在正文详细介绍了因子回测框架的相关细节，最终挖掘出五个有效选 基指标，分别来自持续盈利能力、收益获取能力、证券综合选择能力、股票投资与交易能力、风险控制能力细分维度。 组合构建：将四个低相关性的进攻型因子等权合成，构建高波"固收+"基金组合。 组合按1‰调仓成本做扣除，同时考虑基金实际申购等限制，回溯区间 2015.11-2025.4，季度频率，组合年化回报4.25%，相对Wind二级债基指数年化超额1.17%，相对等权基准 ...

Core Viewpoint - The integration of low-altitude economy and technology-driven agriculture is creating significant investment opportunities in the drone industry, particularly in agricultural modernization and efficiency improvements [2][3]. Demand Side Analysis - Food consumption significantly impacts residents' living standards, with food and beverage spending accounting for 30.4% of per capita consumption in the first half of 2025 [5]. - China, with 18% of the global population, consumes approximately 30% of the world's rice, 51% of pork, 46% of vegetables, 37% of fruits, and 40% of seafood, highlighting the importance of food security [5]. - The limited arable land, which constitutes only 8.2% of the global total, necessitates higher agricultural productivity to ensure food security [5][7]. Supply Side Analysis - The total arable land in China remained stable at 1.93 billion acres in 2023, with a slight increase of 0.58% since 2019 [13]. - The agricultural sector is primarily composed of smallholder farms, facing labor shortages and rising costs, which traditional farming methods cannot sustain [13][14]. - The demand for agricultural drones is driven by the need for efficient, large-scale operations, as the industry shifts towards mechanization and modernization [3][14]. Drone Applications and Benefits - Drones are well-suited for high-load, repetitive agricultural tasks, enhancing productivity, quality, environmental sustainability, and economic efficiency [3][16]. - Drones can increase crop yields through precise spraying and fertilization, reduce pesticide residues, and improve crop quality by minimizing soil compaction [16][17]. - The use of drones can lead to significant cost savings in water and pesticide usage, as demonstrated by a case study showing a 25% increase in yield and substantial reductions in operational costs [17]. Market Potential - The potential demand for agricultural drones in China is estimated to reach 6.24 million units, with a corresponding market value of 224.6 billion yuan, and an annual demand of 1.12 million units valued at 44.9 billion yuan [24]. - The service market for agricultural drones is projected to reach 225.6 billion yuan annually, driven by the increasing acceptance of professional services among small and medium-sized farmers [25][26]. Policy and Technological Drivers - The development of the agricultural drone industry is supported by favorable low-altitude economy policies and technological advancements that reduce costs and improve product performance [20][21]. - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to encourage the cultivation of skilled drone operators and provide subsidies for agricultural drones, enhancing the industry's growth prospects [20][21]. Industry Chain Perspective - The rapid development of agricultural drones is benefiting the entire industry chain, from upstream component suppliers to midstream brand manufacturers and downstream service providers [27][29]. - Upstream suppliers of key components such as sensors and batteries are expected to benefit from increased demand and technological advancements in the drone sector [29][30]. - Leading midstream companies like DJI and XAG dominate the market, with a combined market share of approximately 50% in the global agricultural drone market [31].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has been active this year but has recently lagged behind the A-share market, particularly since July, where the Hang Seng Index has struggled to break through the 25,000-point mark, showing only a 3% increase compared to A-shares' significant gains of 9.2% and 20% for the ChiNext Index [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has been stagnant since mid-July, contrasting sharply with the A-share market's performance, which has reached a ten-year high [2]. - Despite a recovery since April, the Hong Kong market has underperformed compared to global peers, with the Hang Seng Tech Index failing to recover losses from March [5][6]. Group 2: Reasons for Underperformance - The underperformance of the Hong Kong market is attributed to three main factors: liquidity tightening (Hibor rising), downward revisions in earnings, and low valuation (AH premium below 125%) [8][19]. - Hibor rates have surged from near zero to close to 3% within a week, indicating a tightening of liquidity in the Hong Kong banking sector [8][9]. - In contrast, the A-share market has enjoyed ample liquidity, with daily trading volumes exceeding 3 trillion yuan and financing balances surpassing 2 trillion yuan [11][12]. Group 3: Earnings and Valuation - Earnings for the Hang Seng Index have been continuously revised downwards, with consensus estimates for 2025 showing a negative growth of -1.4% compared to a positive growth forecast of 10% for the MSCI China A-share Index [19][22]. - The AH premium has dropped below 125%, reducing the attractiveness of dividends for many investors, which has contributed to the market's struggles [26][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may provide some liquidity support for the Hong Kong market, but it is not seen as a definitive driver [14][17]. - The long-term structural advantages of the Hong Kong market remain, particularly in sectors like AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which could attract investment despite short-term challenges [44][45]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The current strategy suggests that while the Hong Kong market may lag in the short term due to liquidity issues and earnings downgrades, it holds long-term structural advantages that could yield better returns [44][45]. - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities rather than merely index performance, as the market has shown significant potential for alpha generation through sector rotation [45][46].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in Shanghai's real estate policies are expected to provide a temporary boost to market sentiment, particularly in the local housing market [3]. Policy Adjustments - The new policies include the removal of purchase limits for local residents and non-local residents who have paid social security or taxes for over a year, as well as an increase in the purchase limit for single residents in the inner ring from one to two units [3]. - The policies also optimize housing provident fund loans, allowing for a 15% increase in loan limits for purchasing new green buildings and enabling the withdrawal of provident funds for down payments without affecting loan limits [3]. - The mortgage interest rate pricing mechanism will no longer differentiate between first and second homes, and property tax exemptions will be provided for non-local residents on their first home [3]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, A-share developers' stock prices increased by 4.0%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.9 percentage points, while H-share developers' stock prices rose by 2.0%, surpassing the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 0.2 percentage points [2]. - The overall performance of real estate stocks has been positive, with A-share developers up 6.9% and H-share developers up 9.8% since early August [4]. Future Outlook - The effectiveness of these policy adjustments is expected to be regional and temporary, with the overall improvement in real estate sales volume and prices still dependent on the implementation of policies related to inventory housing and urban village renovations [3][4]. - The recent policy changes in Shanghai align with similar measures taken in Beijing, both aimed at stimulating demand from potential buyers in peripheral areas and enhancing the purchasing power of first-time and upgrading homebuyers [3].

Core Viewpoint - China's export growth from January to July 2025 significantly exceeded market expectations, driven by the acceleration of industrialization in emerging markets and developing countries, alongside China's competitive supply chain and increased export of intermediate goods [2][4]. Export Growth Analysis - In the first seven months of 2025, China's exports in dollar terms increased by 6.1% year-on-year, while the market anticipated only a 0.88% growth due to global tariff disruptions [2]. - The export growth was primarily supported by intermediate goods, which saw a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, outperforming capital goods at 6.8% and consumer goods at -1.6% [4]. Export Structure Changes - The share of intermediate goods in China's export structure rose from 45.4% in 2024 to 47.4% in 2025, while consumer goods decreased from 31.9% to 29.4%, and capital goods slightly declined from 20.0% to 19.9% [6]. - Since 2018, the share of intermediate goods in China's exports has been on an upward trend, increasing by 5.5 percentage points from 2017 to the first seven months of 2025 [6]. Regional Export Dynamics - The growth in intermediate goods exports was primarily directed towards emerging markets and developing countries, with significant increases in exports to Thailand (28%), Saudi Arabia (23%), and India (21%) [8][10]. - In contrast, exports of intermediate goods to developed countries like the United States, Netherlands, and Japan experienced negative growth [8]. Sector-Specific Export Performance - Key sectors showing high growth in intermediate goods exports included machinery and electronics (15%), non-ferrous metals (6%), transportation equipment (7%), and precision instruments (16%) [15]. - This performance reflects China's manufacturing scale advantages and enhanced technological innovation capabilities [15].

Core Viewpoint - The market interpreted Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting as a dovish signal for monetary easing, but the company believes it does not provide strong guidance on the sustainability and extent of rate cuts, rather clarifying the Fed's "reaction function" in response to employment and inflation risks [2][4][5]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Reaction Function - Powell indicated that the Fed would lean towards rate cuts when employment risks outweigh inflation risks. However, if inflation risks surpass employment concerns, the Fed could halt rate cuts using the same "reaction function" [5][9]. - The current environment of higher tariffs and stricter immigration policies creates a scenario where both employment and inflation risks coexist, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [4][5]. Economic Context and Risks - Powell acknowledged that structural shocks are impacting the economy, with higher tariffs reshaping global trade and stricter immigration policies slowing labor growth. He emphasized that while monetary policy can stabilize cyclical fluctuations, it is largely ineffective against structural shocks [8][9]. - The Fed's revised monetary policy framework for 2025 emphasizes a balanced approach to employment and inflation, moving away from the previous average inflation targeting that allowed for higher inflation in pursuit of more jobs [5][9]. Comparison with Previous Guidance - Compared to his 2024 speech, Powell's current guidance reflects a lack of confidence in the ability to achieve the 2% inflation target, indicating a more cautious stance on monetary easing [6][7]. - The current economic situation is described as challenging, with inflation risks tilted to the upside and employment risks to the downside, contrasting with the more confident tone of the previous year [7][9]. Market Implications - The company suggests that the market should not overly interpret Powell's dovish comments as a clear signal for a series of rate cuts. Even if a 25 basis point cut occurs in September, it does not imply the beginning of a broader easing cycle [9]. - The potential for "stagflation" could lead to increased market volatility as the Fed navigates conflicting employment and inflation targets [9].