Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of rural areas in understanding contemporary Chinese economic and social development, highlighting the dual strategies of rural revitalization and new urbanization as interconnected rather than contradictory [2][7]. Group 1: Research Insights - CICC Global Institute has conducted extensive field research across 21 provinces, 58 counties, and over 300 villages to understand rural changes [2]. - The program "Field Dialogues" aims to analyze rural revitalization through academic discussions and firsthand data [2]. - Professor Lü Dewen shares insights from over 20 years of rural research, focusing on internal perspectives from farmers and grassroots officials [3][4]. Group 2: Family and Institutional Dynamics - The concept of "One Family, Two Systems" describes the coexistence of traditional rural lifestyles and urbanized living among different generations within families [6]. - This duality reflects the macro-level urban-rural structure at the micro-family level, linking rural issues to broader policies [6]. Group 3: Strategic Interconnections - Rural revitalization and new urbanization serve different family needs: urbanization addresses the aspirations of younger generations, while revitalization supports the stability of older generations remaining in rural areas [7]. - The strategies are complementary, with intergenerational division of labor facilitating the integration of both approaches [7]. Group 4: Expectations for Youth - The article encourages young people to seek opportunities in urban areas while also contributing to rural revitalization efforts, emphasizing that both paths can be valuable [8].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Mid-term Investment Strategy Conference held by CICC focused on the theme of "Resilience and Reconstruction," discussing key topics such as the outlook for the Chinese economy, global asset trends, and advancements in AI and high-end manufacturing [3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Economics - CICC's Chief Economist, Peng Wensheng, highlighted the shift towards geopolitical economics, emphasizing that the past 40 years of globalization and financialization are being reevaluated due to rising inequality and recent economic challenges in the U.S. [6][7]. - The macro impacts of geopolitical competition include increased supply constraints due to de-globalization, protectionism, and fragmented global supply chains, which harm economic efficiency [6]. - The importance of real assets is rising, driven by fiscal expansion and the need for de-financialization, with China holding unique advantages in green industries and AI [6]. Group 2: Monetary Order Reconstruction - Chief Strategy Analyst, Miao Yanliang, noted that the global monetary order is rapidly diversifying and fragmenting, which may reduce the impact of high U.S. Treasury yields on RMB assets [10]. - The anticipated influx of capital into Hong Kong stocks is supported by China's resilient fundamentals, trends in AI, low valuations, and under-allocation by foreign investors [10]. Group 3: Economic Recovery and Market Outlook - Chief Macro Analyst, Zhang Wenlang, observed a divergence in GDP growth and weak prices, attributing this to demand gaps and structural improvements in the economy [13]. - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a continuation of "quasi-balance" growth, with potential structural highlights as the real estate sector's drag on the economy diminishes [13]. Group 4: U.S. Economic Rebalancing - U.S. Macro Chief Economist, Liu Zhengning, discussed the implications of U.S. tariff policies, indicating a shift from balanced to functional fiscal policies to stabilize the economy [16]. - The short-term effects of tariffs may lead to stagflation, with a potential for growth slowdown and temporary inflation increases in the U.S. economy [16]. Group 5: A-Share Market Resilience - Domestic Strategy Chief Analyst, Li Qiusuo, expressed confidence in the resilience of the A-share market, predicting a "steady then rising" trend in the second half of 2025, contingent on effective macro policies [17][21]. - Investment strategies should focus on certainty in uncertain environments, emphasizing opportunities in capacity cycles, high-growth sectors, and dividend-paying stocks [21]. Group 6: Global Market Trends - Overseas Strategy Chief Analyst, Liu Gang, noted a growing global consensus on "de-dollarization," although the extent may not meet expectations [22]. - The outlook for Hong Kong stocks suggests a structural market with potential for gains in sectors like technology and new consumption, despite overall index volatility [22]. Group 7: Digital Financial Services - CICC is enhancing its digital service capabilities through the "CICC Insight" platform, which provides comprehensive research and investment information to institutional investors [23]. - The company aims to leverage financial technology to improve service efficiency and support clients' investment decisions [23][24].

Real Estate Industry - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, divided into three phases: housing transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment [2] - The core point for entering a positive cycle is the upward shift in housing price expectations due to changes in supply and demand structure, which should be a key signal for market patience [2] - Policy measures need to be more decisive to facilitate stabilization, focusing on adjusting supply and demand structures and mitigating risks from enterprises [2] - The probability of a "medium policy" scenario for 2025 is high, with housing sales potentially performing better than expected due to the prolonged effects of the 926 policy [2] - A recovery in total housing sales to historical reasonable levels could lead to significant upward potential, with new housing transaction volumes likely to see greater recovery [2] Strategy - The A-share market is expected to show resilience and growth, with a potential bottom having formed in early April 2025 [7] - The market's upward potential will depend on a comprehensive policy package, particularly fiscal policies, to support the recovery trend [7] - Key investment themes include mergers and acquisitions, artificial intelligence, undervalued quality leaders, refined consumption, and counter-cyclical policy support [7] Macroeconomy - The Chinese economy is experiencing a "quasi-balance" recovery, with GDP growth improving while prices remain weak [15] - The real estate sector's drag on the economy is expected to continue narrowing, contributing to the quasi-balance recovery [15] - Consumer behavior is shifting towards quality and rational consumption, with the Z generation becoming a driving force in the new consumption wave [19]

Core Viewpoint - The overall price stability in the industry chain is expected in 2H25, with potential price elasticity in certain segments, supported by high operating rates of leading companies and benefits from new product premiums, indicating a recovery in fundamentals [1][3]. Demand - The demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is anticipated to maintain high growth in China due to the old-for-new policy and the expected decline in purchase tax in 2026, while the European market is expected to recover due to carbon policies and subsidies [3][6]. - In the first four months of 2025, China's NEV wholesale sales increased by 46% year-on-year, with exports also showing strong growth, benefiting from the recognition of Chinese brands in overseas markets [7][9]. - The commercial vehicle sector in Europe is experiencing strong growth, with a 47% year-on-year increase in NEV commercial vehicle sales in the first four months of 2025, driven by various subsidies [16]. Industry Chain - After significant price declines in 2023-2024, the industry chain prices are entering a bottoming phase, with certain segments like 6F, copper foil, and iron lithium cathodes showing signs of price stabilization [3][26]. - The supply-demand structure is improving, with leading manufacturers maintaining high operating rates, indicating a potential recovery in their fundamentals [28][31]. New Technologies - The solid-state battery technology is expected to see accelerated industrialization in 2H25, driven by demand from NEVs, eVTOLs, and robotics, with significant advancements in testing and pilot production [4][45]. - The second-generation semi-solid batteries are entering a critical phase for commercialization, with various companies making progress in production and application [47][48]. Global Manufacturing Layout - The lithium battery industry chain is accelerating its global manufacturing layout, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia, with expected production capacity coming online from late 2H25 to 2026 [41][44]. - The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is promoting domestic production of batteries and components, which is expected to enhance local supply capabilities and reduce reliance on foreign products [42][43].

中金研究 美国5月核心CPI季调环比仅上涨0.1%，同比维持在2.8%，总CPI环比上涨0.1%，同比反弹至 2.4%，均低于市场预期。这份报告表明，企业在将关税成本转嫁给消费者方面依然保持克制，这可 能是因为企业目前仍在自行承担关税成本，或者提前囤货带来的库存仍可用于应对关税。往前看， 我们倾向于未来几个月会看到一轮物价上涨，但与2021-2022年不同，此轮涨价更具有结构性和一次 性特征，并非全面通胀。对于美联储而言，温和的通胀数据是个好消息，但我们认为官员们也不会 因为单个月的数据就做出重大决策，在重启降息之前，他们更倾向于再多看几组通胀数据。 点击小程序查看报告原文 市场目前最关注的就是关税是否会对通胀造成影响，而5月CPI报告中几乎没有体现关税的向下传导。 从数据上看，核心商品5月环比从上月0.1%降至零增长。其中，新车环比下跌0.3%，二手车下跌0.5%， 特朗普政府针对进口汽车25%的关税目前仍未体现在整车零售端。家具与床具（-0.8%）、服装 （-0.4%）环比同样在下跌，即便针对于小包裹进口的关税已明显抬升。 不过，一些受关税影响较大的 品类价格仍出现显著上涨 。 比如家用电器（+4.3%） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests maintaining an overweight position in gold, increasing allocation to Chinese stocks, shifting from aggressive to defensive in US equities, underweighting global commodities, and maintaining a standard allocation in domestic and foreign bonds for the second half of 2025, aiming for resilient asset allocation amidst changing macroeconomic conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The US tariff policy is identified as the main factor influencing global asset performance in the first half of 2025, with unexpected tariff shocks leading to a risk-off market environment [4][5]. - Despite a significant reduction in tariffs in May, the effective average tariff rate remains around 16%, significantly higher than the 2.4% at the end of 2024, which may negatively impact global trade and economic growth [4][6]. - The article notes that the subjective and arbitrary nature of US tariff policies introduces considerable uncertainty for future market directions [5]. Group 2: Asset Performance Trends - The article highlights a shift in asset performance patterns in 2025 compared to 2018-2020, influenced by three super cycles: the dollar cycle, technology cycle, and real estate cycle [9][10][11]. - During tariff escalations, the dollar depreciated, US Treasury yields rose, and gold prices surged, indicating a complex interplay between tariffs and asset classes [9][18]. - Chinese stocks showed resilience during tariff escalations, with growth-style stocks outperforming, suggesting a potential revaluation of Chinese assets [10][41]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The US economic outlook is expected to deteriorate, with fiscal deficits projected to shrink in 2025, potentially leading to a recession or stagflation, which could suppress financial asset performance [21][26]. - The article anticipates a decline in the US fiscal deficit rate to around 5%-6% in 2025, with a shift to expansionary fiscal policies expected in 2026 [21][67]. - The potential for a "second inflation" risk remains, driven by tariff pressures despite currently low inflation levels [21][26]. Group 4: Gold and Commodity Outlook - Gold is projected to remain a key beneficiary in the current economic environment, with prices potentially reaching between $3,000 and $5,000 per ounce in the next few years, despite current prices being above equilibrium levels [36][39]. - The article suggests that commodities may be entering a new super cycle driven by AI and green transitions, although short-term demand may remain weak due to global economic slowdowns [51][53]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Recommendations - The article recommends an asset allocation strategy that emphasizes gold, high-dividend stocks, and domestic bonds, while suggesting a lower allocation to US equities and commodities [64]. - It advises maintaining a standard allocation in US Treasuries due to uncertainties, while being cautious about the potential for rising interest rates and inflation [64][67]. - The article encourages investors to look for opportunities in technology growth stocks, particularly in the Chinese market, as the AI revolution unfolds [41][49].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that humanoid robots represent a significant advancement in embodied intelligence, with the potential to drive social and economic development, and the industry chain is expected to experience substantial growth opportunities [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Humanoid robots are considered the optimal form of embodied intelligence, consisting of a humanoid body and an intelligent agent [1]. - Since 2020, the AI industry has entered a rapid development phase, with many governments positioning humanoid robotics as a national strategy, leading to increased competition among tech companies [1]. - The potential market space for humanoid robots is projected to exceed trillions of yuan in the long term [1]. Group 2: Hardware Development - The humanoid robot hardware industry focuses on three core components: joint actuators, dexterous hands, and sensors, with varying progress across the industry [2]. - China’s mature industrial base means hardware is not a bottleneck for development, but rapid iteration is necessary to find the optimal balance between performance and cost [2]. - Key hardware segments are categorized into mature, rapidly iterating, and undecided solutions, with a recommendation to focus on cost-reduction opportunities in core segments [2]. Group 3: Software Development - The humanoid robot software industry centers around the "big and small brain" concept, supported by data and software infrastructure [2]. - The current mainstream architecture is a layered structure of "big and small brains," while integrated end-to-end solutions are also being explored [2]. - The scarcity of high-quality data for training models is a current bottleneck, with a combination of real data and simulation being used for model training [2]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The competition in the humanoid robot market is becoming increasingly diverse, with various players including startups, cross-industry companies, and AI hardware/software firms entering the field [13]. - Major companies like Tesla and Toyota are leveraging their existing supply chains to facilitate the integration of humanoid robots into their operations [13]. - The industry is expected to see a surge in new products in 2023, with leading manufacturers beginning to explore commercialization possibilities in 2024 [16]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Humanoid robots are anticipated to be capable of performing diverse tasks across various industries, including service, manufacturing, healthcare, and more [18]. - The potential market for humanoid robots in China could reach 22.8 trillion yuan by 2050, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.7% from 2024 to 2050 [22]. - The article outlines that as technology improves and costs decrease, the economic feasibility of deploying humanoid robots in various sectors will increase, leading to broader adoption [21].

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten market is entering a bull market phase, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand from emerging industries and geopolitical tensions, leading to a significant rise in tungsten prices and highlighting the strategic value of global tungsten industry leaders [1][3][7]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of June 6, the price of 65% WO3 tungsten concentrate in China has surpassed 173,000 yuan per ton, marking an increase of 31,000 yuan since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative growth of 21.8% [1][7]. - The price of tungsten has been on an upward trend since mid-March, reaching a historical high of 166,500 yuan per ton on May 16, and further increasing to 173,000 yuan by June 6 [7][8]. - The global supply of tungsten is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.57% from 2023 to 2028, while global tungsten consumption is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.61% during the same period [3][36]. Group 2: Policy Impacts and Strategic Value - The strategic value of tungsten is increasingly recognized amid de-globalization, with China tightening mining quotas and enhancing export controls, particularly affecting upstream products like APT and tungsten carbide [3][15]. - The U.S. and Europe are restructuring their supply chains and increasing strategic stockpiling of tungsten, with the U.S. imposing tariffs and planning to boost tungsten inventory levels [3][23][27]. - China's export controls on tungsten products are expected to limit the export of midstream products, while downstream high-value tungsten products may see increased export opportunities [3][30]. Group 3: Supply Constraints and Demand Growth - China's tungsten production growth is slowing, with a significant drop in the over-extraction rate from 32% in 2020 to 14% in 2024, indicating a tightening supply [16][36]. - Emerging industries, such as photovoltaic tungsten wire and robotics, are driving domestic demand, while geopolitical conflicts are stimulating overseas demand for tungsten [41][45]. - The global tungsten supply is expected to face constraints, with only Kazakhstan and South Korea likely to contribute significant supply increases in the short term [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite overall consumption being insufficient, new consumption trends are emerging, characterized by "consumption upgrading" rather than simple "consumption downgrading" [1][4]. Group 1: Current Consumption Landscape - The Chinese consumption market is transitioning from mass consumption to personalized and rational consumption, driven by the Z generation's willingness to pay for quality and emotional value [1][11]. - Overall consumption remains subdued, with per capita consumer spending and CPI below pre-2020 trends, yet new consumption hotspots are emerging, with certain sectors like tea drinks and light luxury goods experiencing significant growth [1][4]. - New consumption enterprises achieved an average revenue growth of 65% in 2024, significantly outpacing the overall resident consumption growth of 5.3% and the revenue growth of the consumer sector at 2.4% [1][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of New Consumption - The Chinese consumption market reflects a trend of "consumption upgrading," where consumers prioritize quality-price ratio and emotional value over merely seeking low prices [4][11]. - New consumption representatives have an average gross margin of 50.9%, which is substantially higher than the 23.9% of the consumer sector and 7.8% of the overall manufacturing sector [4][8]. - Key factors influencing consumer purchasing decisions include product quality, emotional value, and cost-effectiveness, with Z generation consumers particularly valuing emotional and quality aspects [7][23]. Group 3: Demographic Insights - The Z generation (ages 16-30) is becoming a driving force in the new consumption wave, showing the highest optimism about consumption prospects among all age groups [23]. - Z generation consumers exhibit a strong preference for emotional value and quality, with 40.1% prioritizing emotional value in their purchasing decisions [23][24]. - In lower-tier cities, the negative impact of real estate on consumption is diminishing, leading to a release of consumption potential, with retail growth rates in these cities surpassing those in higher-tier cities [24][25].

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 在我们跟踪的三个主要的外汇交易策略中，价值策略取代套息策略，成为了今年迄今为止最好的外汇交易策略。而套息策略继去年第三季度之后，在今年 4月份再度遭遇关税的外生冲击，该策略虽然仍为正收益，但高波动令其性价比在2025年显著回落。套息头寸较大的亚洲货币则在5月份继续面临平仓压 力。趋势策略则成为了三大策略中唯一亏损的策略。美元指数虽然从高位下跌了10%，但做空美元的负carry以及汇率短期波动的不确定性让"追涨杀跌"成 为了收益性相对较差的策略。 2025年迄今为止，全球外汇市场围绕着美国政府政策的各种不确定性展开交易。在1月特朗普正式上任后，美元指数在多重利空的影响下下跌了超过 10%。一季度美元的弱势源自于某些政策支票并未兑现所带来的特朗普交易退坡，而从二季度开始，多重利空继续推动美元破位下行。4月2日之后，我们 认为美元的下跌主要源自3方面的交易：一是关税对美国经济的不确定性的影响。与2018年的中美关税摩擦不同，美元指数与关税不确定性在今年4月之后 呈现反向的相关关系。而欧元、日元、瑞郎是规避关税风险的三个主要的避险货币，相对美元走势强劲。二是对"海湖庄园 ...