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Core Viewpoint - The three major concerns previously affecting the bond market have been partially digested, with actual impacts being lower than market expectations. However, with upward policy impulses, the economy and stock market are expected to experience a "good start," which may continue to pressure bond market sentiment. Positive factors should not be overlooked, as the government bond supply's duration does not strongly explain interest rate trends, and besides the 50 billion yuan bond purchase signal, the central bank has both the willingness and ability to support liquidity. The overall outlook for the bond market is not pessimistic, and current strategies should focus on allocation while patiently waiting for trading opportunities [4]. Group 1: Diminishing Disturbances in the Bond Market - Since the beginning of the year, the domestic bond market has remained relatively calm compared to the volatility in other asset classes like stocks and commodities. This stability is primarily due to the fading of three major disturbances: the potential redemption pressure from new public fund sales regulations, fluctuations in year-end funding, and the impact of ultra-long bond supply. The first two factors have materialized with actual negative effects being lower than expected, while the recent rise in 30-year government bond yields has adequately responded to the ultra-long bond supply shock [5]. Group 2: Key Focus Points for Bond Market Breakthrough - How substantial is the economic "good start"? From a policy perspective, fiscal policy is taking the lead, with funding and project arrangements secured. Leading indicators show that the manufacturing PMI for December 2025 exceeded expectations, and seasonal characteristics indicate a higher month-on-month growth rate for M1 in January due to the later timing of the 2026 Spring Festival [6] - Can expectations for monetary policy easing be revised upward? Given the "good start" in the economy and stock market, total monetary policy easing may be further delayed, but current market expectations for rate cuts are relatively rational. The central bank has maintained a supportive stance regarding narrow liquidity [6] - What is the rhythm of ultra-long government bond supply? Historically, changes in issuance duration have shown weak explanatory power for the movements of 10-year and 30-year government bond yields. Additionally, with the total increase in government bonds being controllable, the impact of supply appears to be more like several small pulses [6] - How strong is the willingness of allocation plates to absorb? The central bank's monetary policy undoubtedly supports government bond supply, and the liquidity environment is expected to remain supportive. There is a positive outlook on whether institutions will increase their allocation of ultra-long bonds [6] - Will the stock-bond "seesaw" effect persist? In terms of cost-effectiveness, the current risk premium in the stock market has gradually fallen to the 1/2 to 3/4 percentile range since 2002, indicating a shift from significant undervaluation towards median regression. However, the static cost-effectiveness still favors stocks over bonds. Considering the economic and risk preference factors in the first quarter of 2026, the strong stock and weak bond pattern may be difficult to reverse [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "anti-involution" policies and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's (MIIT) initiatives are expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated capacities in high-energy-consuming industries, promoting healthier development in the chemical sector [4]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The MIIT announced a new round of stability growth plans for ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aimed at structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacities [4]. - The "anti-involution" policies emphasize the need for orderly market competition and the governance of chaotic corporate behaviors, which will further drive capacity management in key industries [4]. - The petrochemical industry is projected to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in value-added from 2025 to 2026, with significant improvements in economic efficiency and technological innovation capabilities [4]. Group 2: Industry Analysis - Calcium Carbide - By 2025, China's total calcium carbide production capacity is expected to be 41.66 million tons, a decrease of 7.1% from the peak of 44.83 million tons in 2022 [5]. - The top six companies in the calcium carbide industry have a combined capacity of 9.8 million tons, resulting in a CR6 concentration of only 23.5%, indicating a fragmented capacity structure [5]. - The apparent consumption of calcium carbide is projected to be 24.90 million tons in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.45% due to weak downstream PVC demand [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Analysis - Liquid Alkali - The single-ton gross profit for liquid alkali is expected to be 744 yuan by the end of 2025, marking a low point since 2021 [7]. - The total production capacity for caustic soda is projected to reach 51.66 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.46%, with a CR6 concentration of only 12.9% [7]. - The current low industry profitability and intensified competition are anticipated to lead to the accelerated elimination of outdated capacities, improving supply-side conditions [7]. Group 4: Industry Analysis - PVC - The construction and real estate sectors remain the primary application areas for PVC, accounting for 41% of the total consumption in 2025, indicating a close relationship between PVC demand and these industries [8]. - The apparent consumption of PVC is expected to be approximately 18.66 million tons in 2025, a decline of 7.1% compared to 2020, with recovery in demand still awaited [8]. - The total PVC production capacity is projected to be 30.38 million tons in 2025, with the top six companies holding a combined capacity of 7.89 million tons, resulting in a CR6 concentration of 26% [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth in China's film market during the 2025 holiday season, with a total box office of 5.345 billion yuan, representing a 75.25% increase year-on-year, marking a record high for the holiday season in the past five years [4] - The overall box office for 2025 reached 51.832 billion yuan, with a split box office of 46.683 billion yuan, recovering to 80% of the levels seen in 2019, and total audience attendance reached 1.238 billion, close to the levels of 2023 [5] - Animation films emerged as a key driver of market growth, with total box office revenue exceeding 24.5 billion yuan, nearly half of the total box office, and the film "Nezha 2" led the box office with 15.4 billion yuan, significantly surpassing its predecessor [6] Group 2 - The film market is experiencing a concentration of box office revenue, with the top five films accounting for over 50% of total box office revenue, indicating a shift towards fewer blockbuster films dominating the market [5] - The number of new films released in 2025 decreased to 464, with a decline in the number of films generating significant audience interest, reflecting a more cautious approach from viewers [5] - The upcoming 2026 Spring Festival film lineup is generating interest, with "Fast and Furious 3" already scheduled for release, and several other anticipated films expected to compete for box office success, although overall excitement may not match that of 2025 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic electrolytic aluminum price reached 23,300 yuan/ton as of January 5, 2026, marking the highest level since March 2022 [4] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The copper-aluminum price ratio hit 4.49 on December 29, 2025, the highest since 2003, indicating a potential acceleration in aluminum replacing copper in certain sectors, particularly in the wire and cable industry due to its price advantage and favorable physical properties [5] - The domestic aluminum consumption structure is shifting, with transportation and power aluminum usage expected to rise from 19.7% and 15.0% in 2023 to 23.85% and 16.27% in 2025, respectively [7] - The total domestic aluminum consumption is projected to reach 57.37 million tons in 2026, maintaining a year-on-year growth of over 1.7% [8] Group 2: Supply Chain and Production Challenges - Overseas electrolytic aluminum supply is facing disruptions, with Century Aluminum's Iceland production line temporarily halting operations due to equipment failure, reducing its operational capacity from 317,000 tons/year to 105,700 tons/year [6] - South32's Mozal aluminum plant, with a capacity of approximately 600,000 tons/year, is expected to enter maintenance mode by March 15, 2026, due to unresolved power supply agreements [6] - The supply of bauxite remains constrained, with China's reliance on imports from Guinea increasing, which may impact the pricing of alumina in the future [9] Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for better management and optimization in resource-intensive industries like alumina and copper smelting, reinforcing expectations against excessive investment and disorderly construction [9] - The ongoing development of national standards related to aluminum applications, such as the air conditioning heat exchanger standards, indicates a regulatory push towards enhancing aluminum's market position [5]

点击注册小程序 其中，参与网下发行的个股共计14只，主板4只、创业板3只、科创板7只，募集金额合计301.47亿元，环 比+227.54%。 2025年，共114只新股上市，主板37只、创业板33只、科创板18只、北交所26只，募集金额共计1304.93亿 元。 参与网下发行的个股共计81只，主板35只、创业板28只、科创板18只，募集金额合计1192.48亿元。 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 新股发行概况： 12月新股发行规模创年内最高，全年IPO规模超1300亿元。2025年12月，共18只新股上市，主板5只、创 业板3只、科创板7只、北交所3只，募集金额共计314.11亿元，环比+208.33%。 新股涨幅与网下打新参与度维持"双高"。2025年12月，主板采用网下 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Huayou Cobalt is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, driven by the production of nickel and lithium materials, as well as rising prices for cobalt and lithium [4][5]. - Huayou Cobalt anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.85-6.45 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.8%-55.2% [4]. - The company expects a net profit of 1.63-2.23 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a median estimate of 1.93 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28% and a year-on-year increase of 70% [4]. Group 2 - The growth in performance is primarily attributed to the gradual release of nickel wet-process capacity, with the Indonesian Huafei project achieving overproduction and the Huayue project maintaining stable high production [5]. - The recovery of downstream materials business and the advantages of an integrated supply chain in lithium battery materials are becoming increasingly evident, showcasing a competitive strategy focused on product and cost leadership [5]. - The average price of standard-grade cobalt in Q4 2025 is projected to be $23 per pound, a 45% increase quarter-on-quarter, while the average price of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to be 88,000 yuan per ton, a 21% increase quarter-on-quarter [5]. Group 3 - The Pomalaa project, which aims to produce 120,000 tons of nickel metal annually, has commenced construction, while the Sorowako project is progressing well in its preparatory phase [6]. - A lithium sulfate project in Zimbabwe, expected to produce 50,000 tons annually, is entering the equipment installation phase, which will further reduce lithium salt production costs [6]. Group 4 - The Congolese cobalt export quota has been implemented, and based on the projected cobalt production in the Democratic Republic of Congo and global cobalt consumption, there is an anticipated supply shortage from 2025 to 2027, which is expected to support high cobalt prices [7]. - The projected supply-demand balance for global metallic cobalt from 2025 to 2027 indicates a shortfall of 75,000 to 33,000 tons, suggesting that cobalt prices are likely to remain elevated [7].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for high-end PCB products is significantly increasing due to the expansion of AI computing power, leading to a notable rise in PCB equipment demand [4]. Group 1: PCB Equipment Market Overview - The global PCB specialized equipment market is projected to reach $10.8 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 8.7% from 2024 to 2029 [5]. - Key equipment segments in 2024 include drilling (21%), exposure (17%), inspection (15%), and electroplating (7%) [5]. - The demand for mechanical and laser drilling equipment is expected to coexist, with domestic manufacturers likely to capture high-end mechanical drilling equipment replacement demand [5]. Group 2: Specific Equipment Insights - In the exposure equipment sector, LDI equipment is a critical competitive area, with market share concentrated among leading companies [5]. - The electroplating equipment sector features diverse technological routes, with domestic firms holding an advantage in vertical continuous electroplating [5]. - The inspection field is becoming increasingly competitive, moving towards 3D and online capabilities [5]. Group 3: Emerging Trends and Innovations - The introduction of NVIDIA's Rubin architecture is expected to reshape the demand and landscape for drilling equipment and drill bits [6][7]. - The anticipated use of M9-grade copper-clad laminates in PCBs will significantly increase processing difficulty and costs, leading to a projected multi-fold increase in demand for AI PCB drill bits [7]. - The short-term market for tungsten-cobalt alloy-coated drill bits will remain dominant for processing M9 materials, while the commercialization of diamond drill bits is still pending [7].

Group 1 - In December 2025, 18 new stocks were listed, raising over 30 billion yuan, with a total of 114 new stocks for the year, raising 130.5 billion yuan [5] - The average first-day increase for new stocks in the main board and dual innovation board was 214% and 296% respectively, with initial inquiry allocation targets being 9,094 for the main board and 8,158 for the dual innovation board [5] - The new stock subscription yield for accounts with a scale of 5 billion yuan in December 2025 was approximately 0.91% for Class A and 0.37% for Class B, with annual yields of 2.63% and 1.77% respectively [5] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced a net liquidity injection of 50 billion yuan through government bond purchases in December 2025, which is significantly lower compared to the monthly net purchases of 100 to 300 billion yuan from August to December 2024 [6] - The cautious approach to controlling the scale of bond purchases is deemed appropriate in the initial months following the resumption of bond buying [6] Group 3 - The new regulations for commercial real estate REITs have been implemented, marking the beginning of a new chapter for the REITs market [8] - The commercial real estate REITs pilot program is expected to accelerate, and investors are encouraged to pay attention to the first batch of products [8] - The quality of projects remains a fundamental investment basis, with a focus on products that have strong demand for underlying assets [8] Group 4 - Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve a net profit of 5.85 to 6.45 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.8% to 55.2% [8] - The net profit for Q4 2025 is projected to be between 1.63 to 2.23 billion yuan, with a median of 1.93 billion yuan, indicating a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28% and a year-on-year increase of 70% [8] Group 5 - Hengyi Petrochemical has fully launched the second phase of its Brunei refining project, aiming for completion by the end of 2028 [9] - Salt Lake Industry is expected to achieve a net profit of 8.29 to 8.89 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 77.78% to 90.65% [9] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 8.23 to 8.83 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 87.02% to 100.66% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company has officially launched the construction of the Brunei Refinery Phase II project, aiming for completion by the end of 2028, which is expected to enhance its growth potential in the future [4][5]. Group 1: Project Development - The subsidiary Hengyi Industries (Brunei) Co., Ltd. has signed the Phase II Implementation Agreement and received tax incentives from the Brunei government, along with financing commitments from Brunei Islamic Bank and shareholder loan promises [5]. - The design capacity of the Brunei Refinery Phase II project has been optimized to 12 million tons per year, focusing on producing diesel, PX, benzene, polypropylene, and other high-value refined oil and chemical products [5]. - Upon completion, the total capacity of the Brunei refinery will reach 20 million tons per year, creating synergies with the first phase of the project and enhancing the company's market share and integrated supply chain advantages [5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The Southeast Asian refined oil supply-demand gap is expected to continue expanding, with the IMF projecting a GDP growth of 4.5% for the ASEAN region in 2025, and specific countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam showing even higher growth rates [6]. - From 2020 to 2023, over 30 million tons of refining capacity have exited the Southeast Asian and Australian markets due to public health events and energy transition, leading to an anticipated supply-demand gap of 68 million tons by 2026 [6]. - Limited new refining capacity in Southeast Asia, combined with existing supply shortages, suggests that the Brunei Refinery project is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing market tightness [6].