Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing volatility in the international political and economic landscape during the recent holiday period, with significant events in the U.S., Japan, France, and the Middle East impacting global markets [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Situation - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown due to a stalemate between the two parties over temporary funding and healthcare subsidies, marking the first shutdown in seven years. Predictions indicate a 75% chance of the shutdown lasting over 15 days [8]. - Recent economic indicators, including ADP employment and PMI data, have fallen short of market expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of consecutive interest rate cuts. The probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is at 94.6% and 83.4% for December [8][4]. Group 2: International Political Developments - In Japan, Fumio Kishida has been elected as the new president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, potentially becoming the first female Prime Minister. Kishida is expected to continue the "Abenomics" approach, focusing on aggressive fiscal and monetary policies [8]. - In France, the resignation of Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne highlights growing fiscal risks, with France's budget deficit projected to be the highest in the Eurozone for 2024 and government debt at 113% of GDP, significantly above the EU's 60% threshold [8]. - The ongoing ceasefire negotiations in Gaza face significant challenges, with substantial divisions among parties involved, indicating continued uncertainty in the Middle East [8]. Group 3: Global Asset Performance - During the holiday period from September 30 to October 7, 2025, global asset prices showed mixed results. The Nikkei 225 rose by 6.72%, emerging market stocks increased by 2.17%, and developed market stocks rose by 0.80%. The S&P 500 saw a modest increase of 0.39% [3]. - Commodity prices exhibited a mixed trend, with COMEX copper rising by 4.38% and London gold increasing by 3.28%, while IPE Brent crude futures fell by 1.98% [3].

每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 海外策略】"秋日胜春朝"——四季度港股市场展望 上半年港股明显占优， 6 月后表现偏弱， 9 月以来已经重拾升势。 今年上半年，港股表现优异，涨幅在全球市场中居于前列，恒生指数、恒生科技指数最大 涨幅分别达到 33% 、 49% 。 6 月中旬至 8 月底港股股指阶段性表现弱于 A 股，港股科技板块跑输现象更为明显，这一现象或与港股权重科技稀缺资产表 现不佳存在一定关联。一方面，海内外科技巨头持续加码算力资本开支，对算力硬件端提振较大。另一方面阿里、京东和美团在外卖业务加大补贴，科技巨头 盈利增速一致预期持续下修，叠加近期 AI 应用软件端的催化相对较少，使得港股权重科技龙头股表现不佳。进入 9 月以来，伴随阿里巴巴、百度等互联网大 厂在 AI 领域的乐观情绪发酵，互联网叙事逐步转向" AI 赋能"，港股指数表现明显回暖，其中科技板块弹性更大。 当前港股估值其实并不高，科技板块性价比更加突出。 港股自 2024 年初后已处于牛市氛围中，今年以来也维持了震荡上行的格局。尽管港股市场前期积累 的涨幅已经较为可观，但目前估值仍不算高。尤其港股科技板块低估优 ...

上半年港股明显占优， 6 月后表现偏弱， 9 月以来已经重拾升势。 今年上半年，港股表现优异，涨幅在全球市场中居于前列，恒生指数、恒生科技指数最大 涨幅分别达到 33% 、 49% 。 6 月中旬至 8 月底港股股指阶段性表现弱于 A 股，港股科技板块跑输现象更为明显，这一现象或与港股权重科技稀缺资产表 现不佳存在一定关联。一方面，海内外科技巨头持续加码算力资本开支，对算力硬件端提振较大。另一方面阿里、京东和美团在外卖业务加大补贴，科技巨头 盈利增速一致预期持续下修，叠加近期 AI 应用软件端的催化相对较少，使得港股权重科技龙头股表现不佳。进入 9 月以来，伴随阿里巴巴、百度等互联网大 厂在 AI 领域的乐观情绪发酵，互联网叙事逐步转向" AI 赋能"，港股指数表现明显回暖，其中科技板块弹性更大。 当前港股估值其实并不高，科技板块性价比更加突出。 港股自 2024 年初后已处于牛市氛围中，今年以来也维持了震荡上行的格局。尽管港股市场前期积累 的涨幅已经较为可观，但目前估值仍不算高。尤其港股科技板块低估优势更加明显，性价比或相对更高。当前港股估值处历史中位水平，并且略低于 A 股。 截至 2025/09/30 ...

报告导读： OpenAI 视频生成模型 Sora2 正式发布，同时推出由 Sora 2 驱动的同名 IOS 社交应用 " Sora "，已成功登顶苹果美国"热门免费应用"榜单。 美国 时间 9 月 30 日， OpenAI 正式发布最新视频生成模型 Sora 2 和推出由 Sora 2 驱动的 Sora App 。 Sora2 在视频真实性、音频同步和精细控制上实 现重大突破，支持 10 秒的沉浸式内容生成。 Sora 2 Pro 生成时长提升到 15 秒，同时画面分辨率更高，质感更接近电影。 OpenAI 同时推出 Sora App ， 打造 AI 驱动的短视频社区，通过创新 "Cameo" 功能将用户肖像无缝融入生成场景，重新定义社交互动与内容创作。目前应用采用邀请制，优先在美加开 放。借助这款新应用， OpenAI 也在向打造社交媒体产品迈出最大一步， OpenAI 强调， Sora 的定位是共创平台而非内容消费平台。 多模态视频生成逐步走向全局生成，可应用于视频制作各环节，对内容制作整体呈现有效的降本增效，尤其在动画内容方面。 与检索生成和局部生成不同， 多模态视频生成，主要通过文字、图片、视频作为提 ...

报告导读： 高密度算力中心不断发展，芯片层面的冷却技术愈发成为热管理系统的核心瓶 颈，我们认为导热界面材料（ TIM ）的需求将快速增长。 投资观点。 在面对人工智能和更新芯片设计不断增长的需求，当前的冷却技术将在短短几年内限制产业的不断发展。近日，微软宣布已成功开发出一种芯片 内的微流体（ Microfluidic ）冷却系统，可以对模拟团队会议核心服务的服务器进行有效冷却，散热效果比冷板好 3 倍。这个技术方案是将微小的通道直接 蚀刻在硅片的背面，形成凹槽，冷却液直接流到芯片上，实现更有效的散热。我们认为 AI 智算中心的热管理系统的核心瓶颈正不断聚焦于芯片层面，建议关 注 TIM1 、 TIM1.5 、 TIM2 等导热界面材料的需求增长，以及芯片内微流体技术的不断演进 。 AI 发展，热管理对完整散热系统的要求越来越高。 伴随 AI 大模型、 AI 应用的不断发展，其算力底座数据中心面临全新挑战以满足智算发展需求，数据中心 架构正加速向高密度、智能化和可持续方向演进。根据 TrendForce 表示， AI 服务器采用的 GPU 和 ASIC 芯片功耗大幅提升，以 NVIDIA GB200/GB300 ...

Group 1 - The core investment suggestion is that embodied intelligence and computing power supply chains will be significant growth areas for the automotive industry in Q4, with EU carbon emission policies continuing to drive growth in the European new energy vehicle market [1] - The humanoid robot supply chain, particularly components, shows strong potential for catalytic emergence, with major automotive parts companies successfully transitioning to become key players in the humanoid robot supply chain [1] - If leading humanoid robot manufacturers like Tesla launch new products by Q4 2025, the market may adjust expectations for the humanoid robot supply chain shipments in 2026, potentially reaching a production volume of 100,000 units, leading to a market capacity of approximately 10 billion RMB for related components [1] Group 2 - The domestic passenger car market is expected to perform steadily, while the European new energy vehicle market is projected to be a strong growth point globally [2] - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the October automotive market is expected to show a "high open and flat" pattern, with a 5% to 10% year-on-year growth forecasted for sales in Q4 [2] - In Germany, September saw a significant increase in new energy vehicle sales, with pure electric vehicle sales reaching approximately 45,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 32%, and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales increasing by 85% [2]

Core Insights - OpenAI's release of Sora App and Sora2 model marks a significant shift in AI technology from text and images to high-quality video generation and social applications [1][2] - Sora2 is described as a "GPT-3.5 moment for the video field," indicating its potential to revolutionize video content creation [2][3] Sora App Overview - Sora App focuses on "pure AI-generated content" and has quickly risen to the third position in the free app rankings in the U.S. App Store, indicating strong market interest [2] - The app features a TikTok-style interface but eliminates real human footage, relying solely on AI-generated materials [2] - There is a notable phenomenon of invitation code reselling in the domestic market, reflecting high demand [2] Sora2 Model Features - Sora2 has made significant advancements in accurately simulating physical movements and character performances, addressing limitations of previous AI video models [3] - It can realistically replicate complex movements, maintain scene continuity across multiple camera angles, and generate synchronized audio effects [3] - Current limitations include a fixed video length of 10 seconds, a resolution of only 360P, and challenges with complex scenes leading to facial blurriness and text generation errors [3] Social Interaction and User Engagement - Sora App aims to transform users from content consumers to creators through features like "Cameo" and "Remix," allowing for collaborative and creative engagement [4] - The "Cameo" feature enables users to create digital avatars for virtual performances, while "Remix" allows for secondary creation based on existing materials [4] - The app employs a non-addictive recommendation algorithm and includes parental controls to mitigate issues seen in traditional short video platforms [4]

Core Viewpoint - Southeast Asia is a priority direction for China's surrounding diplomacy and a key area for high-quality Belt and Road Initiative cooperation, with Indonesia being the largest economy in the region and a vital partner for trade and investment [1]. Group 1: Economic and Trade Relations - Southeast Asia has been China's largest trading partner for five consecutive years, making it the preferred destination for Chinese enterprises looking to expand internationally [1]. - Indonesia, as the largest economy in Southeast Asia, possesses resource advantages, a solid manufacturing base, and a vast consumer market, positioning it as a hotspot for economic cooperation and industrial layout [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The upcoming forum titled "Exploring New Routes, Charting New Blueprints" organized by Guotai Junan Securities on October 16 aims to gather government and enterprise representatives, industry guests, and investment institutions to discuss opportunities and future directions in Indonesia [1].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually recover as demand stabilizes and supply-side adjustments begin to take effect, with potential acceleration if supply policies are implemented [1][3]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand is showing a marginal increase with a week-on-week rise in apparent consumption of five major steel products to 8.7406 million tons, up by 237,300 tons. Inventory levels have decreased to 15.1061 million tons, down by 91,300 tons [1]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills is at 84.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace operating rates have decreased to 60.26%, down by 1.28 percentage points [1]. - The industry has been experiencing losses since Q3 2022, with nearly 40% of steel companies still in the red. However, market-driven supply adjustments are beginning to emerge [3]. Profitability Trends - The average gross profit per ton for rebar has decreased to 216.2 CNY, down by 18.1 CNY, while hot-rolled coil profit has increased to 172.2 CNY, up by 18.4 CNY. The overall profitability rate for 247 steel companies is at 58.01%, a decline of 0.86% [2]. - Expectations indicate that iron ore production will accelerate, leading to a more relaxed market for iron ore prices, which may alleviate cost pressures for the steel industry [2]. Future Outlook - The demand from the real estate sector is expected to weaken, but demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is anticipated to grow steadily. Steel exports have maintained year-on-year growth through August [3]. - The recently released "Steel Industry Stability Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes continued production cuts and the exit of inefficient capacities, supporting the expectation of supply-side contraction [3]. - The long-term trend in the steel industry is towards increased concentration and high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [3].

投资策略与建议：我们维持行业"增持"评级。 1 ）人形机器人供给创造需求，重点寻找类似当年新能源车磷酸铁锂正极的高性价比技术路线，以及类似宁德 时代的内生优势公司。 2 ）随着 2025 年以旧换新效果逐渐递减，国内乘用车竞争压力较大。 3 ）国内重卡市场受 5 月以旧换新启动推动明显， AIDC 柴 发业务推动产业升级。 4 ）零部件产业成长性逐渐稀缺，推荐产品渗透率和国产化率均空间较大的公司。 近一周 (2025/9/19-2025/9/26 ，下同 ) ： 申万汽车指数相对持平，新能源整车指数下跌 2% ，汽车零部件指数相对持平，商用车指数下跌 3% 。相对 万得全 A ，近一周：申万汽车指数相对持平，新能源整车指数跑输 2% ，汽车零部件指数相对持平，商用车指数跑输 3% 。 根据乘联会数据，乘用车： 9 月 1-21 日，全国乘用车市场零售 119.1 万辆，同比去年 9 月同期增长 1% ，较上月同期增长 8% ，今年以来累计零售 1595.5 万辆，同比增长 9% 。 新能源： 9 月 1-21 日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售 69.7 万辆，同比去年 9 月同期增长 10% ，较上月同期增长 1 ...