每周一景： 湖南永州九嶷山风景名胜区 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观】 代币化：货币、金融的历 史性变革 ——全球货币变局研究九 需求环比下降，总库存由降转升。 上周（本报告中的上周均指2025年6月23日至6月27日当周）五大品种钢材表观消费量879.85万吨，环比下降4.33万吨； 其中，建材表观消费量305.18万吨，环比下降2.71万吨；板材表观消费量574.67万吨，环比下降1.62万吨。上周五大品种钢材产量为880.99万吨，环比上 升12.48万吨；总库存为1340.03万吨，环比上升1.14万吨，维持近年同期最低位水平。上周247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.82%，环比持平；高炉产能利用率 为90.83%，环比上升0.04个百分点；电炉开工率为61.54%，环比持平；电炉产能利用率为52.36%，环比下降0.09个百分点。短期来看，行业已进入传统 淡季阶段，我们预期钢铁需求将维持震荡趋弱态势，总库存或逐步转入累库通道。 盈利率环比持平。 上周45港进口铁矿库存13930万吨，环比升36万吨，维持偏高位水平。上周螺纹模拟平均吨毛利145.6元/吨，环比降20.6元/吨，热卷模 拟平均吨毛利91. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that as of the end of June 2025, the signals for stocks, bonds, and gold markets for July 2025 are positive, negative, and positive respectively [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment forecast for Q3 suggests inflation, with both credit spreads and term spreads signaling a narrowing trend [2] - The cumulative return of the industry composite trend factor combination from January 2015 to June 2025 is 86.40%, with an excess return of 40.53%. The factor signal for June 2025 was positive, and the Wind All A monthly return was 4.74% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The development of stablecoins and Real World Assets (RWA) may lead to significant changes in the global monetary and financial systems, potentially creating a parallel decentralized system alongside the current centralized one, similar to the impact of AI on the global economy [1] Group 1: Monetary System - The essence of money is a "social consensus" and a "recording tool" that facilitates the exchange of labor and goods, with its value being largely dependent on public trust and recognition [4][5] - The formation of social consensus around a currency requires its scarcity to be maintained; excessive issuance can lead to inflation, undermining trust in the currency [6][7] - Legal tender serves as a centralized recording tool, relying on government trust to maintain its value and scarcity [7] Group 2: Stablecoins - In the context of increasing distrust in centralized monetary systems, stablecoins have emerged as a decentralized alternative, leveraging blockchain technology to create a shared, immutable ledger [10][11] - Stablecoins, particularly those backed by fiat currencies, dominate the market, accounting for 99% of the stablecoin market share since 2014, and can be viewed as digital representations of cash [11][12] - The rise of stablecoins may lead to a reconfiguration of the global monetary system, breaking down national borders and allowing for a more fluid exchange of value across different economies [12][13] Group 3: Real World Assets (RWA) - RWA represents the tokenization of real-world assets on the blockchain, allowing for decentralized trading and ownership of assets like stocks and bonds, similar to asset-backed securities [16][17] - The development of RWA could create a new financial market that operates parallel to traditional centralized markets, enabling direct wealth management on the blockchain without reverting to fiat currencies [17][18] - RWA can also enhance the monetary system by allowing tokenized assets to be used as currency for transactions, thereby expanding the definition of what can be considered money [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of Trump's proposed drug pricing policies on the U.S. pharmaceutical industry, suggesting that while there are significant threats, the short-term effects may be limited due to existing structural challenges in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Background and Current Situation - U.S. pharmaceutical spending is at a high level, with per capita drug spending reaching $1,564 in 2022, significantly higher than other developed countries. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2018 to 2022 was 6.2% [1]. - The increase in drug prices is primarily driven by innovative drugs, which have long-term pricing above inflation, while generic drugs continue to decrease in price. The complex pricing system supports the stability of high prices for innovative drugs [1]. - The U.S. pharmaceutical trade deficit is expanding, with imports projected at $213 billion and a deficit of $118.6 billion in 2024. Ireland has become a major source of this deficit due to tax advantages [1]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Trump's proposal for a "Most Favored Nation" (MFN) pricing policy aims to anchor U.S. drug prices to the lowest prices in developed countries, potentially reducing prices by 30%-80%. However, legal complexities may hinder its implementation, and the focus will likely remain on reforms within the Medicare framework [2]. - The Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) system is identified as a structural monopoly that drives up drug prices, with rebate percentages for chronic diseases exceeding 50% and some reaching 80%. The top three PBMs control 80% of prescriptions, leading to a highly concentrated market [3]. - Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on European drugs aim to encourage domestic manufacturing, but the high costs and long construction timelines for U.S. production facilities may limit the effectiveness of this strategy in the short term [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the focus on high-growth sectors driven by policy support and industrial innovation, including technology growth, new consumption, cyclical growth, and financial innovation [1]. Group 1: High-Growth Sectors - The technology growth sector includes strong performance certainty in computing hardware, the semiconductor industry benefiting from domestic substitution, and military industry resonating with domestic and international demand [1]. - New consumption is represented by emotional consumption, which serves as a new engine to boost consumption [1]. - The cyclical growth sector combines cyclical and growth characteristics, with short-term price increase catalysts [1]. - The financial sector is driven by the decline in risk-free interest rates and innovations in stablecoins [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Following the rating disclosures, the downward adjustment of convertible bond ratings has removed constraints on low-priced convertible bonds, leading to an accelerated exit of bank convertible bonds [1]. - High Yield to Maturity (YTM) and dual low convertible bonds are expected to become the new base assets [1]. - The impact of the June rating downgrades is manageable, reflecting market preparedness for the downgrades of weaker quality convertible bonds, with no concerns over credit risk in a relatively strong equity market [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to continue strengthening in July, influenced by three main factors: earnings forecasts from A-share listed companies, potential new actions from Trump after the tariff delay, and important mid-year meetings setting the economic outlook and policies for the second half [2]. - The report suggests that the valuation logic of the Chinese stock market in 2025 is driven by domestic industrial innovation and a systematic reduction in market discount rates, which will attract incremental capital [2]. - The easing of external tensions further strengthens the internal certainty logic, indicating potential upward movement in the stock market before the end of July [2]. Group 4: Convertible Bond Market - High valuations do not restrict the rise of convertible bonds, as the equity market is expected to remain strong, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand in the convertible bond market [3]. - The median price of convertible bonds reached 124.21 yuan, a new high for 2025, driven by optimistic expectations for underlying stocks [3]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with strong performance certainty and significant valuation space, such as AI, military, semiconductors, humanoid robots, stablecoins, innovative drugs, and emotional consumption [3].

Group 1: Real Estate and Construction - The real estate market continues to show weakness, with a 13.2% year-on-year decline in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities, including a 9.0% drop in first-tier cities, 1.9% in second-tier cities, and a significant 42.8% in third-tier cities [2] - Construction demand is being dragged down by weak real estate performance, although there is a slight recovery in rebar demand and steel prices [3] Group 2: Consumer Goods and Durables - Passenger car sales have seen a year-on-year increase of 30.0%, indicating a positive trend in durable goods consumption supported by subsidy policies [2] - Air conditioning production for July is projected to decline by 1.9% year-on-year, with domestic production up by 8.1% and export production down by 16.3% [2] Group 3: Manufacturing and Resource Prices - Manufacturing activity shows a mixed performance, with an increase in the operating rate of petroleum asphalt facilities, suggesting some resilience in construction demand [3] - The price of thermal coal has rebounded slightly due to increased daily consumption by power plants and tight supply conditions [3] Group 4: Transportation and Logistics - There has been a noticeable increase in passenger transport demand, with metro passenger volume up by 4.4% year-on-year and domestic flight operations increasing by 1.0% [4] - However, sea freight prices have declined, and postal express collection and delivery volumes have decreased [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the stock index has broken through key levels and still has some upward potential in the short term, but the focus should shift from short-term index movements to structural performance and growth themes [1][2][3] - The article highlights that the decline in the risk-free interest rate in China is a significant driver for the stock market's upward movement, as it reduces the opportunity cost for investors and encourages capital inflow into equities [3] - It notes that the economic outlook is undergoing a positive transformation, driven by supply-side innovations and macro policies that support consumption and long-term growth, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2][3] Group 2 - The report indicates that the Chinese stock market's valuation logic for 2025 will be driven by domestic industrial innovation and a systematic reduction in the discount rate, which will facilitate new capital entering the market [1][2] - The article mentions that the expectation of the Chinese yuan stabilizing or slightly appreciating is a crucial factor for the revaluation of Chinese assets, further supporting the market's positive outlook [1] - It discusses the historical context of the stock market's performance, noting that significant market rallies have typically coincided with declines in risk-free interest rates, which have occurred twice in the past decade and are expected to happen again [3]

Group 1: Nuclear Fusion Industry - Google has signed a historic power purchase agreement with Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) to buy 200MW of electricity from its fusion power project in Virginia, marking a significant milestone in the commercialization of nuclear fusion energy [3][5] - The ARC project, located in Chesterfield County, Virginia, aims to be the world's first commercial fusion power plant, expected to generate 400MW of fusion power by the early 2030s, sufficient to power 150,000 homes or large industrial sites [3][4] - CFS, established in 2018, has raised over $2 billion and is one of North America's largest nuclear fusion commercialization companies, with ongoing projects including SPARC, which aims to achieve net energy gain by 2027 [4][5] Group 2: Market Recognition and Trends - The nuclear fusion sector is gaining recognition, with major tech companies like Google and Microsoft entering into power purchase agreements, indicating a growing acceptance and maturity of the nuclear fusion supply chain [5] - Microsoft's previous agreement with Helion Energy to provide at least 50MW of fusion power by 2029 further illustrates the accelerating commercialization of nuclear fusion technology [5]

Core Viewpoint - Google's signing of the largest fusion power purchase agreement with Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) marks a significant step towards the commercialization of nuclear fusion, indicating growing market recognition of the fusion industry [1][3]. Group 1: Agreement Details - On June 30, 2023, CFS announced that Alphabet, Google's parent company, will purchase 200MW of power from its fusion project in Chesterfield County, Virginia [1]. - The ARC project aims to build the world's first commercial fusion power plant, expected to be operational in the early 2030s, with a lifespan of 20 years or more, generating 400MW of fusion power sufficient to supply 150,000 households [1]. Group 2: CFS's Development Plans - CFS, established in 2018, has raised over $2 billion and is one of North America's largest nuclear fusion commercialization companies [2]. - In addition to the ARC project, CFS is developing the SPARC project, which aims to achieve net energy gain (Q>1) and provide critical knowledge for the ARC project [2]. - SPARC is designed with a plasma major radius of 1.85m, a minor radius of 0.57m, a plasma current of 8.7MA, and a maximum auxiliary heating power of 25MW, with a magnetic field strength of 12.2T [2]. Group 3: Market Recognition - Prior to Google's agreement, Microsoft had already committed to purchasing fusion power, with Helion Energy promising to deliver at least 50MW by 2029 [3]. - The increasing maturity of upstream equipment in the fusion industry and the acceleration of commercialization are evident, as major tech companies like Google and Microsoft sign power purchase agreements, indicating widespread market acceptance of fusion energy [3].

投资建议： 全固态电池产业化进程加速，看好固态电池产业链相关公司。 固态电池产业迭代正式开启，从 0 到 1 加速。 2025 年以来，固态电池产业化进展持续加速： 2 月，比 亚迪 CTO 孙华军在第二届中国全固态电池创新发展高峰论坛透露已经比亚迪开始启动固态电池产业化的 可行性验证，涵盖关键材料技术攻坚、电芯系统开发以及产线建设，计划于 2027 年左右启动全固态电池 批量示范装车应用， 2030 年后实现大规模上车应用； 5 月，国轩高科宣布已建成全固态电池中试线， 设计产能 0.2GWh ，电芯能量密度达 350Wh/kg ，并已开启装车测试。我们认为，头部企业在固态电池 端的"落子"有望吸引更多企业"入局"，产品技术迭代迎来持续向好。 车端、材料端、设备端协同共振，产业化进程加速。 目前我国固态电池发展形成"车企 + 电池厂"协同的 特点，如上汽集团与清陶能源。 材料端从电池到正负极、固态电解质、集流体等主材，以及粘结剂、添加 剂等辅材，均在加速研发与改进。固态电池专用设备方面，包括干法电极、等静压等设备厂商进展顺利。 综合多家车企、电池厂发布的固态电池量产计划，我们预计 2027 年全固态电池或迎 ...