1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the performance and bond holdings of active bond funds in Q2 2025. It shows that the bond - type fund market expanded, active bond funds' performance improved, with increased leverage and duration, and there were specific trends in bond holdings and credit - bond investments [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 25Q2 Bond - Type Fund Market Overview - As of the end of Q2 2025, there were 3,862 public open - end bond - type funds, a 1.4% increase from Q1 2025. The market size was 10.93 trillion yuan, an 8.6% increase, and the fund shares were 9.60 trillion, with a net subscription of 565.67 billion shares (6.3% subscription ratio) [1][19]. - Except for convertible bond funds, all types of bond - type funds had net subscriptions and market - scale expansion. For example, mid - long - term bond funds had a net subscription of 207.647 billion shares (3.5% subscription ratio), and short - term bond funds had a net subscription of 152.705 billion shares (17.3% subscription ratio) [24]. 3.2 Active Bond Fund Quarterly Performance 3.2.1 Performance - In Q2 2025, the performance of all types of active bond funds improved compared to the previous quarter. The average returns of short - term pure - bond funds, mid - long - term pure - bond funds, mixed first - tier bond funds, and mixed second - tier bond funds were 0.66%, 0.94%, 1.22%, and 1.68% respectively [2][33]. 3.2.2 Leverage Ratio and Duration - By the end of Q2 2025, the average leverage ratios of short - term pure - bond funds, mid - long - term pure - bond funds, mixed first - tier bond funds, and mixed second - tier bond funds were 115.10%, 126.04%, 119.71%, and 117.98% respectively, all increasing from the previous quarter [39]. - The average durations of their top - five heavy - position bonds were 1.32 years, 3.26 years, 4.26 years, and 3.91 years respectively, also increasing from the previous quarter [42]. 3.2.3 Bond Holdings - By the end of Q2 2025, the total market value of active bond funds' bond holdings was 1.079925 trillion yuan, an 8.03% increase from the previous quarter. Interest - rate bonds were generally increased, and except for convertible bonds and asset - backed securities, the market values of other bond varieties increased [47]. 3.3 Active Bond Fund Heavy - Position Credit - Bond Analysis 3.3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - By the end of Q2 2025, the market value of active bond funds' heavy - position urban investment bonds was 72.406 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.794 billion yuan from Q1 2025. Zhejiang had the highest heavy - position market value, followed by Jiangsu and Shandong. Guangdong, Guangxi, and Shanghai were increased, while Hunan, Sichuan, and Henan were decreased [52]. - The average remaining term was 2.43 years, a decrease of 0.17 years from Q1 2025. Shaanxi had the longest average remaining term, and Ningxia had the shortest. The average valuation yield was 1.93%, a decrease of 25.63 BP from Q1 2025, and yields in all provinces decreased [52][53]. - The main heavy - position urban investment entities were high - rated ones like Shandong Hi - Speed Group and Jilin Hi - Speed Group. Entities like Yiwu State - owned Assets and Guangzhou Knowledge City Group were increased [57]. 3.3.2 Industrial Bonds - By the end of Q2 2025, the market value of active bond funds' heavy - position industrial bonds was 121.104 billion yuan, an increase of 20.135 billion yuan from Q1 2025. Non - bank finance, public utilities, and transportation had large positions. Public utilities and transportation were increased, while real estate and food and beverage were decreased [61]. - The average remaining term was 2.52 years, an increase of 0.05 years from Q1 2025. The average valuation yield was 1.88%, a decrease of 25.74 BP from Q1 2025, and yields in all industries decreased [61]. - The main heavy - position industrial entities were AAA - rated central state - owned enterprises like Central Huijin and State Grid. State Grid, China National New Energy Holdings, and China National Chemical Corporation were increased [66]. 3.3.3 Financial Bonds - By the end of Q2 2025, the market value of active bond funds' heavy - position financial bonds was 575.617 billion yuan, an increase of 8.97 billion yuan from Q1 2025. Ordinary commercial financial bonds and commercial bank secondary capital bonds accounted for the main scale. Secondary capital bonds were increased, and ordinary commercial financial bonds were decreased [69]. - The average remaining term was 3.75 years, an increase of 0.60 years from Q1 2025. The average valuation yield was 1.78%, a decrease of 21.39 BP from Q1 2025, and yields of all types of financial bonds decreased [70]. - The main heavy - position financial bond entities were large - state - owned and joint - stock banks like China Construction Bank, and entities like China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Bank of China were increased [74].

2025 年 7 月 31 日 公司研究 FY25Q3 业绩符合预期，汽车、IoT 业务收入维持高速增长 ——高通（QCOM.O）FY25Q3 业绩点评 要点 公司 FY25Q3 业绩、FY25Q4 指引符合预期。美国东部时间 7 月 30 日，高通 发布 FY25Q3（截至 2025 年 6 月 29 日）业绩。截至美国东部时间 7 月 30 日 20:00，公司盘后股价下跌 4.63%。1）FY25Q3 业绩符合预期：FY25Q3 公司 实现 Non-GAAP 营业收入 103.65 亿美元（与彭博一致预期的 103.34 亿美元 基本持平），同比+10%。分业务看，QCT 业务收入 89.93 亿美元，同比+11%； QTL 业务收入 13.18 亿美元，同比+4%。Non-GAAP EPS 2.77 美元（略高于 彭博一致预期的 2.72 美元）。2）FY25Q4 指引：公司指引 FY25Q4 实现 Non-GAAP 营业收入 103～111 亿美元（彭博一致预期 106.14 亿美元），同 比+0.5%～+8.4%。指引 Non-GAAP 稀释 EPS 2.75～2.95 美元（与彭博一致 预期的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Views - The viscose filament yarn segment continues to thrive, with the company gradually increasing its market share and achieving full production and sales. The company has a production capacity of 90,000 tons per year in viscose filament yarn, contributing to a revenue of 2.791 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4% [1]. - The carbon fiber segment is expected to reduce losses in 2025, as the industry shows signs of recovery. The company has a production line with a capacity of 12,000 tons per year, with a utilization rate of 44.59% in 2024. The revenue from this segment was 320 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Viscose Filament Yarn Segment - The global production capacity for viscose filament yarn is approximately 250,000 to 280,000 tons per year, with China's capacity stable at around 210,000 to 240,000 tons. The company is expanding its differentiated product offerings, achieving over 45% market share in the high-end segment [1]. - The company is currently constructing an additional 35,000 tons per year of viscose filament yarn capacity, with civil works completed and equipment installation underway [1]. Carbon Fiber Segment - The carbon fiber industry is currently experiencing overcapacity, with domestic production capacity at 159,500 tons. The company has a production line for carbon fiber composite materials with a capacity of 12,000 tons per year and a 100% utilization rate for its 600 tons per year small tow carbon fiber line [2][3]. - The average price of carbon fiber has been declining, but recent market conditions suggest a stabilization, with the company implementing price increases in March and May 2025 [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 130 million, 183 million, and 270 million yuan respectively, reflecting significant growth from previous years [3]. - Revenue forecasts for the company are expected to grow from 3.883 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.011 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% [5].

2025 年 7 月 31 日 总量研究 全面增持利率品，杠杆久期均回升 ——主动型债券基金 25Q2 持仓分析 要点 1、 25Q2 债券型基金市场总览 截至 2025 年二季度末，全市场公募开放式债券型基金共计 3862 只，较 2025 年一季度末环比增加 54 只/1.4%；市场规模合计 10.93 万亿元，环比增加 0.86 万亿元/8.6%；基金份额合计 9.60 万亿份，净申购 5656.70 亿份，申购比例 6.3%。 除可转债基金外，各类型债券型基金 25Q2 均表现为净申购，市场规模扩张。 2、主动型债券基金季度表现 3、主动型债券基金重仓信用债分析 城投债：截至 25Q2 末，主动债基重仓城投债市值为 724.06 亿元，环比减持 17.94 亿元。分区域来看，浙江省持仓市值居前，广东、广西等区域被增持，湖南、四 川等区域被减持。剩余期限方面，重仓城投债平均剩余期限为 2.43 年，环比减 少 0.17 年，其中西藏、河北等区域剩余期限显著拉长，北京、广东等地有所缩 短。收益率方面，重仓城投债平均估值收益率为 1.93%，环比下行 25.63BP， 其中青海、辽宁等地收益率较高，各省份平 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the phosphate chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall operating rate of phosphate ammonium is low, but leading companies have sufficient resources and can achieve considerable profits [1][5] - Since 2022, stricter export policies for phosphate ammonium have led to a decline in domestic operating rates, with the operating rate for monoammonium phosphate remaining below 60% [4][5] - The profitability of the phosphate ammonium segment is under pressure, but leading companies benefit from their upstream resource reserves [5][6] - The price gap between domestic and overseas phosphate ammonium has widened, with expectations for increased exports in Q3 due to high overseas prices [7][16] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The phosphate ammonium industry has faced challenges due to export restrictions and regulatory impacts, leading to a significant drop in production and operating rates [4] - The average operating rate for monoammonium phosphate in the first half of 2025 was approximately 53.2% [4] Profitability Analysis - The average gross profit margins for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were negative in the first half of 2025, marking a significant decline compared to previous years [5] - Leading companies have managed to maintain profitability through strategic resource allocation and upstream integration [5][6] Market Dynamics - The average price of domestic phosphate rock has seen a slight increase, with expectations for continued high demand in the medium term [6] - The report highlights the potential for increased exports of phosphate fertilizers in Q3, driven by higher overseas prices [7][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Yuntianhua, Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and others, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated industry consolidation and resource advantages [16]

2025 年 7 月 31 日 总量研究 "抢进口"效应减弱，难掩美国经济隐忧 ——2025 年二季度美国经济数据点评 | | 要点 | | --- | --- | | 作者 | 事件： | | 分析师：高瑞东 | 2025 年 7 月 30 日，美国经济分析局公布 2025 年二季度 GDP 数据初值： | | 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 | | | 010-56513066 | 【1】二季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值+3.0%，预期+2.4%，前值-0.5%； | | gaoruidong@ebscn.com | 【2】二季度实际个人消费支出季率初值+1.4%，预期+1.5%，前值+0.5%； | | 分析师：周欣平 | 【3】二季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值+2.5%，预期+2.3%，前值+3.5%。 | | 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 | | | 010-57378026 | | | zhouxinping@ebscn.com | | | 相关研报 | 核心观点： | | 关税滞胀效应显现，美国经济增速转负—— | | | 2025 年一季度美国经济数据点评（2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (9888.HK) with a target price of HKD 109.4, compared to the current price of HKD 85.50 [6]. Core Insights - Baidu Group is expected to face revenue pressure in Q2 2025, with total revenue projected to decline by 4.2% year-on-year to RMB 32.52 billion, and core revenue expected to decrease by 3.6% to RMB 25.72 billion. The core non-GAAP operating profit is anticipated to drop by 42.5% to RMB 4.03 billion, with an operating margin of 15.7% [1][4]. - The online marketing business is under pressure due to the transitional phase of AI integration, leading to a 15.7% decline in online marketing service revenue. However, as product capabilities improve and commercialization paths expand, revenue is expected to gradually recover [2][4]. - Non-online marketing business revenue is projected to grow by 27% year-on-year to RMB 9.54 billion, driven by strong performance in cloud services and advancements in AI-driven models [3][4]. Summary by Sections Online Marketing Business - The core revenue for Q2 2025 is expected to be RMB 25.72 billion, down 3.6% year-on-year, with online marketing services revenue declining by 15.7% due to the impact of AI transformation [2]. - Baidu's search products and interaction methods are being upgraded, enhancing user experience through multi-modal queries and structured answers [2]. - The launch of the ad-free intelligent search app "TizzyAI" aims to improve content aggregation and logical reasoning capabilities [2]. Non-Online Marketing Business - The core non-online marketing revenue is expected to reach RMB 9.54 billion, a 27% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from cloud services [3]. - The "萝卜快跑" service continues to grow, with a 75% increase in order volume year-on-year, and a strategic partnership with Uber aims to expand autonomous driving services [3]. - The continuous evolution of the Wenxin large model technology enhances multi-modal and reasoning capabilities, potentially increasing enterprise deployment willingness [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Due to ongoing pressures in advertising demand and intense industry competition, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with non-GAAP net profit estimates adjusted to RMB 18 billion, RMB 19.8 billion, and RMB 22.3 billion respectively [4][5]. - The valuation multiples for advertising, smart cloud, and other businesses have been lowered to 10.0x PE, 2.5x PS, and 2.5x PS, respectively [4]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand for AI models and anticipates continued growth in Baidu's cloud business, highlighting the importance of AI search monetization progress [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in Q2 2025, with a revenue of 9.91 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing an 8.09% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.17 billion yuan, up 14.18% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from improving orders in special industries and new growth driven by emerging industries in the second half of 2025 [3]. - The operating cash flow has shown continuous improvement, with a net inflow of 98.84 million yuan in H1 2025, a 29.32% increase year-on-year [4]. Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, revenue from the electronics and electrical sector, aerospace, and research and testing institutions was 3.85 billion, 1.47 billion, and 2.19 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.86%, 46.24%, and 1.84% [2]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 41.88% and a net margin of 13.51% in H1 2025, despite a decline in gross margins due to reduced expense ratios and the reversal of credit impairment losses [2]. Business Segments - Revenue from testing equipment, environmental reliability testing services, and integrated circuit verification and analysis services in H1 2025 was 3.10 billion, 4.87 billion, and 1.55 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.32%, 5.75%, and 21.01% respectively [2]. - The company is focusing on R&D for new products and technologies in sectors such as new energy, commercial aerospace, and integrated circuits, which is expected to drive further growth [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 3.04 billion, 3.81 billion, and 4.62 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.60, 0.75, and 0.91 yuan [4][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 28x for 2025, 22x for 2026, and 18x for 2027, indicating potential for future growth [4].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasizes the continuation of supportive economic policies, focusing on breaking the "involution," promoting service consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade, aiming to consolidate the economic recovery and capital market stability [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The coal chemical industry is undergoing structural adjustments and industrial upgrades, with an optimistic outlook for supply and demand optimization, benefiting related companies such as Baofeng Energy, Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, Chengzhi Co., and China Xuyang Group [4] Group 3: Company Research - Baowu Magnesium Industry's performance is impacted by declining magnesium prices, but the magnesium-aluminum price ratio has remained below 1 for the past 11 months, indicating growth potential in automotive lightweight applications and robotics [5] - Sujiao Technology reported a decline in traditional business but is seeing rapid growth in emerging sectors, with a focus on deepening low-altitude business layouts despite financial pressures [6] - WuXi AppTec's half-year report shows significant revenue growth, with operating income reaching 20.799 billion yuan and a non-net profit of 5.58 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" initiative is fully underway, with supply-side reforms ongoing, indicating a focus on optimizing the market competition landscape [5] - The government is emphasizing the development of modern coal chemical industries, aiming for a clean and efficient utilization of coal by 2030 [4] - Structural adjustments and industrial upgrades are expected to proceed in parallel, with a balanced supply-demand situation anticipated for 2025 [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Anti-Involution Actions - The central government has been vocal about preventing "involution" in industry competition, emphasizing market mechanisms for eliminating inefficient capacities and promoting self-discipline among industries [5] Section 2: Government Support for Coal Chemical Development - The government has issued guidelines to enhance the clean and efficient use of coal, aiming to establish a comprehensive clean utilization system by 2030 [4] Section 3: Industry Structural Adjustments - The coal chemical industry is expected to see a shift towards higher capacity concentration and accelerated smart technology adoption, with a balanced supply-demand dynamic and a downward price trend [5] - In 2024, the coal chemical industry is projected to achieve a revenue of approximately 202.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with total profits expected to reach about 11.93 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 178.1% [5][6] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Baofeng Energy, Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, Chengzhi Co., and China Xuyang Group, as they are likely to benefit from the ongoing structural adjustments and industry upgrades [7]