Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][13][5]. Core Insights - Guming is a leading affordable fresh tea beverage brand with significant advantages, having expanded from Zhejiang to over 200 cities across 17 provinces in China, with 9,914 stores by the end of 2024 [1][25]. - The company has a strong supply chain and unique channel strategies that have propelled it to become the second-largest brand in the industry, focusing on lower-tier cities to avoid intense competition [2][11]. - The tea beverage market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size exceeding 600 billion CNY by 2024, and Guming is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth [1][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guming has been in the fresh tea beverage industry for over a decade, establishing a robust presence with a high average quarterly repurchase rate of 53% and a store operating profit margin of approximately 20% [1][25]. - The company operates primarily through a franchise model, which has facilitated rapid expansion and a strong brand presence in lower-tier cities [2][11]. Market Potential - The fresh beverage market in China is projected to reach over 1 trillion CNY by 2028, with the fresh tea segment being the largest [52][55]. - The market for fresh tea beverages is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.2% from 2024 to 2028, particularly in lower-tier cities where Guming has focused its expansion efforts [55][60]. Supply Chain and Competitive Advantage - Guming's supply chain is a core competitive advantage, allowing for efficient operations and the ability to quickly respond to market demands [2][11]. - The company has implemented a regional density strategy, enhancing its market penetration and brand recognition in areas with multiple store locations [2][11]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.96 billion CNY, 2.36 billion CNY, and 2.76 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 0.99, and 1.16 CNY [3][4][13]. - Guming's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted revenue of 11.16 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 27% growth rate [4][8]. Strategic Initiatives - Guming plans to increase its store count by 2,000 in 2025, focusing on provinces such as Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi [2][11]. - The introduction of coffee products is anticipated to contribute positively to store revenue, with an estimated 10% increase in sales per store [2][11].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Guming (1364.HK) [5][13]. Core Viewpoints - Guming is a leading affordable fresh tea beverage brand with multiple advantages, having expanded from Zhejiang to nationwide coverage with over 9,914 stores across 200 cities by the end of 2024 [1][25]. - The company has a strong supply chain and unique channel strategies that support rapid growth, particularly in lower-tier cities, where the market potential is significant [2][11]. - Guming's average quarterly repurchase rate reached 53% in 2023, significantly higher than the industry average of less than 30% [25][60]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Guming has been deeply involved in the fresh tea beverage market for over a decade, establishing a strong presence in lower-tier cities and towns, which are expected to see a CAGR of over 20% from 2024 to 2028 [1][2]. - The company operates a franchise model that has attracted many franchisees due to high single-store profitability, facilitating rapid store expansion [2][11]. Market Potential - The fresh beverage market in China is projected to exceed 600 billion yuan in 2024, with the fresh tea beverage segment being the largest, estimated at over 300 billion yuan [1][52]. - The report highlights that the affordable price segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 20.8% from 2024 to 2028, indicating strong demand for Guming's offerings [1][55]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.96 billion yuan, 2.36 billion yuan, and 2.76 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 0.99, and 1.16 yuan [3][4]. - Guming's revenue is projected to grow from 7.68 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.26 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4][8]. Competitive Advantages - Guming's supply chain is identified as a core competitive advantage, enabling the company to offer high-quality products at competitive prices while quickly responding to market demands [2][11]. - The company has implemented a regional density strategy that enhances brand recognition and customer loyalty, further driving sales growth [25][60]. Expansion Plans - Guming plans to increase its store count by 2,000 in 2025, focusing on regions such as Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi, with a long-term goal of reaching 20,000 stores [2][11]. - The introduction of coffee products is expected to contribute positively to store revenues, with sales growth of approximately 10% per store [2][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [5] Core Views - OPEC+ has accelerated production, which is expected to boost oil transportation demand. The organization agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day for the third consecutive month, which is three times the planned increase from March. This increase is partly due to non-compliance by major member countries and aims to counteract the low oil prices affecting U.S. shale oil production [1] - The demand for oil transportation is likely to continue rising due to stricter sanctions on Russia and Iran's shadow fleets, alongside OPEC+'s strong willingness to increase production [1] - The U.S. shipping market remains robust, with significant increases in freight rates for both the West Coast and East Coast, driven by easing trade tensions and seasonal demand [2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The transportation sector's performance over the past five trading days showed a slight decline in major indices, while the transportation sector index rose by 1.5%, ranking 10th among all sectors [3][8] - All sub-sectors within transportation experienced gains, with the highest increases seen in public transport (+7.51%), express delivery (+3.47%), and highways (+2.34%) [9][10] 2. Oil Transportation - The BDTI index as of May 30, 2025, was 922 points, reflecting a 4.2% decrease from the previous week. VLCC rates were reported at $33,831 per day, down 18.7% week-on-week [15] - The global oil tanker capacity reached 463.26 million DWT, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.26% [27] 3. Container Shipping - The SCFI index averaged 2073 points as of May 30, 2025, marking a 30.7% increase. Freight rates for the West Coast and East Coast surged by 57.9% and 45.7%, respectively [30] - The demand for container shipping is expected to remain high, despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs [2] 4. Air Transportation - In April 2025, domestic passenger traffic in China reached 54.52 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. International passenger traffic saw a significant rise of 25.9% [56] - Major airports reported substantial increases in passenger throughput, with Guangzhou Baiyun Airport seeing a 26.3% year-on-year increase [65] 5. Express Delivery - In April 2025, the volume of express deliveries reached 16.3 billion items, up 19.1% year-on-year, while revenue increased by 10.8% to 121.3 billion yuan [70] - Major express companies reported varying performance in terms of revenue per item, with significant growth in delivery volumes [74] 6. Rail and Road Transportation - In April 2025, railway freight turnover was 301.9 billion ton-kilometers, up 8.4% year-on-year, while road freight turnover was 688.6 billion ton-kilometers, reflecting a 2.8% increase [80][82]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report From May 1 to May 31, 2025, the secondary - market prices of publicly - offered REITs in China showed an overall upward trend with fluctuations. The market had a certain degree of activity, but the trading enthusiasm decreased compared with the previous month. There were also many REITs waiting to be listed in the primary market, indicating potential development in the future [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Listed Projects As of May 31, 2025, there were 66 publicly - offered REITs in China, with a total issuance scale of 174.393 billion yuan (excluding expansion). Among them, the transportation infrastructure category had the largest issuance scale at 68.771 billion yuan, followed by the park infrastructure category at 27.062 billion yuan. In May 2025, Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT was newly listed, with an issuance scale of 1.367 billion yuan [11][12]. 3.1.2 Projects to be Listed As of May 31, 2025, 26 REITs were waiting to be listed, including 14 initial - offering REITs and 12 REITs for expansion. In May, the project status of several REITs was updated, such as some reaching the "passed" status, some the "feedback received" status, etc. [15]. 3.2 Secondary - Market Performance 3.2.1 Price Trend - **At the level of major asset classes**: The secondary - market prices of publicly - offered REITs in China showed an overall upward trend with fluctuations. The weighted REITs index closed at 139.99, with a monthly return rate of 3.71%. Among major asset classes, the return rate ranking from high to low was US stocks > convertible bonds > REITs > A - shares > gold > pure bonds > crude oil [18]. - **At the level of underlying asset types**: Both equity - type REITs and franchise - type REITs showed an upward trend with fluctuations in secondary - market prices this month, and equity - type REITs had a larger increase. In terms of underlying asset types, the affordable housing - type REITs had the largest increase this month. The top three underlying asset types in terms of return rate were affordable housing, warehousing and logistics, and consumer - related types [22][25]. - **At the single - REIT level**: This month, the prices of publicly - offered REITs showed a mixed trend, with 58 rising and 8 falling. The top three in terms of increase were Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT, Huaxia Jinhuao Commercial REIT, and Huaxia Jinyu Zhizao Gongchang REIT [29]. 3.2.2 Trading Volume and Turnover Rate - **At the level of underlying asset types**: The trading volume of publicly - offered REITs decreased compared with the previous month, and the affordable rental housing - type REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate during the period. As of May 31, the total trading volume of 66 listed REITs was 9.72 billion yuan, and the average daily turnover rate was 0.65% [31]. - **At the single - REIT level**: In terms of trading volume, the top three were Hongtu Innovation Yantian Port REIT, Dongwu Suyuan Industrial REIT, and Huaxia Hefei High - tech REIT. In terms of trading amount, the top three were CICC Anhui Expressway REIT, Huaxia China Expressway REIT, and Dongwu Suyuan Industrial REIT. In terms of turnover rate, the top three were Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT, Huaxia Tebian Electric New Energy REIT, and Guotai Junan Lingang Innovation Industrial Park REIT [32]. 3.2.3 Main - Force Net Inflow and Block Trading - **Main - force net inflow**: The total main - force net inflow was 100.56 million yuan, and the market trading enthusiasm decreased compared with the previous month. Among different underlying asset REITs, the top three underlying asset types in terms of main - force net inflow were warehousing and logistics, affordable rental housing, and transportation infrastructure [35]. - **Block trading**: The total block - trading amount decreased compared with the previous month. There were block trades on 17 trading days this month, with a total block - trading amount of 1.12 billion yuan. The highest single - day block - trading amount was on May 6, 2025, at 149.72 million yuan [40]. 3.3 Relevant Policies On May 7, 2025, Wu Qing, the chairman of the CSRC, stated during a press conference that REITs and other assets would be included in the Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect. On May 15, 2025, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions", proposing to improve the market - based investment and financing model and encourage eligible projects to issue infrastructure - related REITs [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [5] Core Views - OPEC+ has accelerated production, which is expected to boost oil transportation demand. The organization agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day for the third consecutive month, which is three times the planned increase from March. This increase is partly due to non-compliance by major member countries and aims to counteract the low oil prices affecting U.S. shale oil production [1] - The demand for oil transportation is likely to continue rising due to stricter sanctions on Russia and Iran's shadow fleets, alongside OPEC+'s strong willingness to increase production [1] - The shipping rates for the U.S. routes have surged due to easing trade conflicts and seasonal demand, with significant increases in average freight rates for both the West and East U.S. routes [2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The transportation sector's performance over the past five trading days showed a slight decline in major indices, while the transportation sector itself increased by 1.5%, ranking 10th among all sectors [3][8] - All sub-sectors within transportation experienced gains, with the highest increases seen in public transport (+7.51%), express delivery (+3.47%), and highways (+2.34%) [9][10] 2. Oil Transportation - As of May 30, 2025, the BDTI index was at 922 points, reflecting a 4.2% decrease from the previous week. VLCC rates were reported at $33,831 per day, down 18.7% week-on-week [15] - The global oil tanker capacity reached 463.26 million DWT, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.26% [27] 3. Container Shipping - The SCFI index averaged 2073 points as of May 30, 2025, marking a 30.7% increase. The average freight rates for the West U.S. and East U.S. routes were $5,172 and $6,243 per FEU, respectively, with increases of 57.9% and 45.7% [30] 4. Air Transportation - In April 2025, domestic passenger traffic in China reached 54.52 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. International passenger traffic was 6.41 million, up 25.9% [56] - Major airports like Baiyun, Pudong, and Shenzhen reported significant increases in passenger throughput, with Baiyun Airport seeing a 26.3% year-on-year increase [65] 5. Express Delivery - In April 2025, the volume of express delivery services reached 16.3 billion pieces, a 19.1% increase year-on-year, while revenue was 121.3 billion yuan, up 10.8% [70] 6. Rail and Road Transportation - In April 2025, railway freight turnover was 3,019 billion ton-kilometers, up 8.4% year-on-year, while road freight turnover was 6,886 billion ton-kilometers, reflecting a 2.8% increase [80][82]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [4] Core Views - The importance of energy security has been highlighted due to escalating geopolitical tensions and tariff conflicts, with China's reliance on oil and gas imports reaching 72% and 43% respectively in 2024 [1] - The "Three Oil Giants" are focusing on independent innovation to achieve high-quality development, with specific targets for domestic production and technology advancements set for 2024 and beyond [2] - The report suggests a positive outlook for undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the "Three Oil Giants" and oil service sectors, as well as for domestic material companies benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Geopolitical uncertainties and tariff conflicts are posing challenges to China's energy security, emphasizing the need for increased domestic oil and gas production [1] 2. Company Innovations - The "Three Oil Giants" are advancing in key technologies to enhance domestic production capabilities, with specific goals for equipment localization and technological breakthroughs by 2024 [2] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the "Three Oil Giants" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, CNOOC) and oil service companies, as well as material companies that are expected to benefit from domestic substitution trends [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on specific companies within the construction and building materials sector, indicating potential investment opportunities based on market conditions and company performance [6][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of index weight adjustments on stock prices, particularly for companies in the construction and building materials sector, with notable changes in the sample stocks of various indices [6][5]. - The external trade environment is becoming increasingly uncertain, particularly following the announcement of increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum by the U.S. President, which may disrupt the operations of export-related companies [5]. - The report identifies several companies to watch, including Honglu Steel Structure, Puyang Refractories, Hainan Huate, Beixin Building Materials, China Chemical, China State Construction, Shanghai Port, and others, based on their growth potential and market conditions [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Perspective - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the effects of index weight adjustments on stock prices, particularly for companies being removed from major indices [6][5]. 2. Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report includes a table of earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the sector, indicating their expected performance and market positioning [8]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The construction and building materials indices showed varied performance, with the construction index up by 1.12% and the building materials index up by 0.60% for the week [11]. - Specific companies within the sector experienced significant weekly price changes, with Sichuan Jinding up by 15.34% and Tianan New Materials down by 15.68% [19][20]. 4. Aggregate Data Tracking - The report tracks overall market trends and performance metrics for the construction and building materials sector, providing insights into broader market movements [10]. 5. High-Frequency Data Tracking - The report includes high-frequency data that reflects real-time market conditions and trends affecting the construction and building materials sector [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [5]. Core Insights - The PD-1 (PD-L1)/VEGF dual antibody concept is gaining significant attention, with Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies leading the research and development efforts [2][20]. - The global market for dual antibodies is projected to exceed $80 billion by 2030, with PD-1 (PD-L1)/VEGF drugs expected to challenge traditional PD-1/PD-L1 therapies in cancer treatment [20][21]. - The report highlights the importance of clinical data barriers and international expansion for companies in this sector, suggesting that these factors will create differentiated investment opportunities [3][26]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 2.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.30 percentage points [11][12]. - Among sub-industries, other biological products led with a 4.65% increase, while offline pharmacies saw a decline of 2.69% [12][19]. Clinical Progress - Notable advancements include the IND applications for BG-60366 by BeiGene and RFUS-949 by Renfu Pharmaceutical, as well as ongoing clinical trials for several drugs [29][30]. - Companies like Hengrui Medicine and Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical are in Phase III trials, while others are in earlier stages [29][31]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a structural selection of investment opportunities based on payment willingness and ability, focusing on three payment channels: hospital payments, out-of-pocket payments, and overseas payments [4][26]. - Key recommendations include Hengrui Medicine, Mindray Medical, United Imaging Healthcare, and Yuyue Medical [4]. Company Updates - Recent announcements include significant collaborations and product approvals, such as the $60.5 billion global licensing deal between 3SBio and Pfizer [2][28]. - The report notes that as of June 1, 2025, there are 14 PD-1 (PD-L1)/VEGF products in clinical stages, all associated with Chinese companies [21][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [5]. Core Insights - The PD-1 (PD-L1)/VEGF dual antibody concept is gaining significant attention, with Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies leading the research and development efforts [2][20]. - The global market for dual antibodies is projected to exceed $80 billion by 2030, with PD-1 (PD-L1)/VEGF drugs expected to challenge the traditional PD-1/PD-L1 drugs in cancer treatment [20][21]. - The report highlights the importance of clinical data barriers and international expansion for companies in this sector, suggesting that these factors will create differentiated investment opportunities [3][26]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 2.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.30 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 2.00 percentage points, ranking second among 31 sub-industries [11][12]. Clinical Progress - Notable advancements include the IND applications for BG-60366 by BeiGene and RFUS-949 by Renfu Pharmaceutical, as well as ongoing clinical trials for various drugs by companies like Hengrui Medicine and Stone Pharmaceutical [29][30]. Key Developments - The report notes that 14 PD-1 (PD-L1)/VEGF products are currently in clinical stages, all associated with Chinese companies, with the fastest progress seen in Ivonescimab by Kangfang Biotech, which has been approved in China [21][22]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a structural selection of investment opportunities based on payment willingness and ability, focusing on three payment channels: hospital payments, out-of-pocket payments, and overseas payments [4][26]. - Recommended companies include Hengrui Medicine, Mindray Medical, United Imaging Healthcare, and Yuyue Medical [4]. Company Announcements - Recent announcements include various companies receiving approvals for new drugs and medical devices, indicating ongoing innovation and regulatory progress within the sector [28][29].

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates the revenue and profit growth rate of the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The pricing mechanism is determined by the long-term contract system, where the sales price for the next month is based on the last price index of the current month[10] - The model uses the year-on-year changes in price and capacity factors to estimate monthly revenue and profit growth rates[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability, but it relies heavily on the stability of the pricing mechanism and external factors like market demand[10][14] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts the hog supply-demand gap six months ahead based on the breeding sow inventory and historical slaughter coefficients[15] - **Model Construction Process**: - The slaughter coefficient is calculated as: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Breeding Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[15] - The potential supply six months later is estimated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Breeding Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6, YoY)} $[15] - The potential demand six months later is estimated as: $ \text{Potential Demand (t+6)} = \text{Hog Slaughter (t+6, YoY)} $[16] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical data shows that this model effectively identifies hog price upward cycles, making it a valuable tool for supply-demand analysis[16] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth and per-ton profit for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[18] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel to estimate profit growth rates[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed profit analysis but is sensitive to fluctuations in raw material prices and global demand[22] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability changes and generate allocation signals[23] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying short-term profitability trends but requires additional macroeconomic indicators for long-term predictions[30] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates profit growth and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activities[31] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates profit growth rates and cracking spreads using variations in fuel and crude oil prices[31] - Allocation signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling activity[31] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of industry profitability but is highly dependent on volatile oil price movements[35] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth Forecast**: Predicted a year-on-year profit decline for June 2025 due to lower coal prices compared to the previous year[14] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: Predicted a balanced supply-demand scenario for Q4 2025, with potential supply and demand both estimated at 18,226 million hogs[17] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth Forecast**: Predicted a slight year-on-year profit decline for May 2025, with PMI rolling averages remaining flat[22] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year decline in gross profit for May 2025[30] - **Cement Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year profit growth for May 2025, driven by price recovery[30] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Refining Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year profit decline for May 2025 due to lower oil prices compared to the previous year[35] - **Oilfield Services**: Observed stable new drilling activity and lower oil prices compared to the previous year, maintaining a neutral outlook[38]