2025 年 7 月 2 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【金工】新股发行节奏提速，网下打新热度提升——打新市场跟踪月报 20250701 | 外汇市场 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 中间价 | | 涨跌 | | 美元兑人民币 | 7.1534 | -0.07 | | 欧元兑人民币 | 8.4305 | 0.33 | | 日元兑人民币 | 0.0497 | 0.21 | | 港币兑人民币 | 0.9113 | -0.07 | | 利率市场 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回购市场 前加权平均利率% | | 涨跌 BP | | DR001 | 1.3673 | -14.29 | | DR007 | 1.5457 | -37.02 | | DR014 | 1.6194 | -27 | | 二级市场 | YTM% | 涨跌 BP | | 一年期国债 | 1.3377 | -0.25 | | 五年期国债 | 1.5075 | -0.54 | | 十年期国债 | 1.6433 | -0.36 | 数据来源：Wind, Bloomberg 2025 年 6 ...

——打新市场跟踪月报 20250701 要点 新股发行概况： 2025 年 7 月 1 日 金融工程 新股发行节奏提速，网下打新热度提升 双创板块（本文统计范围为创业板和科创板）采用网下打新的新股 3 只，上市 首日平均涨幅为 190.72%，环比+50.57pct，无个股破发；初步询价配售对象 为 6963 家，报价入围率为 89.89%，环比-4.27pct；网下中签率分别为 A 类： 0.24‰、C 类：0.22‰。 打新收益测算： 各板块当月打新收益测算方面，2025 年 6 月， 5 亿规模账户主板打新收益率为 A 类：0.014%、C 类：0.013%；创业板打新收益率为 A 类：0.035%、C 类： 0.034%；科创板打新收益率为 A 类：0.012%、C 类：0.012%。 各类账户逐月打新收益测算方面，2025 年 6 月，A 类账户 5 亿规模账户当月打 新收益率约为 0.168%，2025 年累计收益 0.743%；C 类账户 5 亿规模账户当 月打新收益率约为 0.166%，2025 年累计收益 0.670%。 风险分析：报告中模型测算的参数假设存主观性，不同参数可对测算结果产生 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The report discusses the issuance of 16 supportive policies by the National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission aimed at enhancing the high-quality development of innovative drugs [3] - It emphasizes a comprehensive support system that includes research and development, market access, payment mechanisms, and clinical application to transition China from a "generic drug powerhouse" to an "innovative drug stronghold" [8] Summary by Sections Research and Development - Data empowerment and the introduction of patient capital are expected to reduce the risks associated with innovative drug development [4] - The policy guidance aims to lower the backend risks of innovative drug research and development [4] Market Access and Payment - The dual drive of medical insurance and commercial insurance is set to expand market opportunities [5] - The dynamic adjustment mechanism for the medical insurance catalog will shorten the time gap between drug approval and market entry [7] - The introduction of a commercial health insurance catalog for innovative drugs will diversify the payment system for high-end innovative drugs [7] Clinical Application - The report highlights the optimization of processes and diversified guarantees to facilitate the final stages of drug application [6] - Encouragement for medical institutions to expedite the use of innovative drugs post-catalog updates is expected to enhance the speed of drug deployment in clinical settings [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading innovative drug companies and specialized biotech firms, including 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), 信达生物 (Innovent Biologics), 康诺亚 (CanSino Biologics), 药明康德 (WuXi AppTec), and 凯莱英 (Kelun) [8]

2025 年 7 月 1 日 公司研究 营收持续增长，成长空间广阔 ——兴森科技（002436.SZ）跟踪报告之五 要点 兴森科技专注于先进电子电路方案产业， PCB 和半导体两大业务助力成长。公 司传统 PCB 业务聚焦于样板快件及批量板的研发、设计、生产、销售和表面贴 装，公司深化推进 PCB 工厂的数字化变革，实现从工程设计、制造、供应链等 全流程数字化改造，持续提升客户满意度和经营效率；高阶 PCB 领域，公司完 善 Anylayer HDI 板和类载板（SLP）业务布局，在坚守高端智能手机主赛道的 基础上，全力拓展高端光模块、毫米波通信市场；公司半导体业务聚焦于 IC 封 装基板（含 CSP 封装基板和 FCBGA 封装基板）领域，立足于芯片封装测试环节 的关键材料自主配套。公司产品广泛应用于通信设备、消费电子、工业控制、医 疗电子、服务器、轨道交通、计算机应用、半导体等多个行业领域。 兴森科技持续保持 PCB 行业领先地位。兴森科技通过持续的研发投入提升技术 能力，以数字化改造提升工厂的经营管理效率，以稳定的交付和质量表现提升客 户满意度。根据公司年报援引 CPCA 发布的第二十三届中国电子电路行 ...

Macro Insights - The manufacturing PMI index continued to rise in June, driven by a reduction in external disturbances and a slight improvement in new export orders [2] - The internal economic momentum is recovering, with high-energy-consuming industries stabilizing and new economic drivers expanding steadily, leading to increased production and procurement activities [2] - The service industry business activity index saw a slight decline due to the end of holiday effects, but overall market expectations remain positive with the upcoming summer consumption peak [2] - The construction industry business activity index stabilized and improved, primarily due to positive developments in housing construction activities [2] Stock Recommendations - The A-share stock selection for July includes New Guodu, Hengsheng Electronics, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, Akol, New China Life, China Life, Dongfang Fortune, China National Materials, and Huayou Cobalt [3] - The Hong Kong stock selection for July includes Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, AIA, China Hongqiao, Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group-W, Xindong Company, Pop Mart, and Hua Hong Semiconductor [3] Company Research - Akol's COC project has passed the acceptance review and has officially entered the stable production phase, with successful output of qualified products [4] - Kuaishou's advertising growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2025, driven by the launch of the new recommendation system OneRec and the potential for further monetization of the general merchandise shelf [5] - Bosideng achieved a revenue of 25.9 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024/2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, with a net profit of 3.51 billion yuan, up 14.3% [6] - Health元 is transitioning its traditional main business and is expected to see orderly progress in innovation, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [8] - New Dairy is expected to benefit from the continued advantages of raw milk and structural upgrades that enhance profitability, despite some concerns about the sustainability of raw milk cost benefits [9]

2025 年 6 月 30 日 公司研究 主业转型过渡，投入创新可期 ——健康元（600380.SH）更新点评 要点 吸入制剂收入有所波动，期待妥布霉素放量。 24 年公司呼吸制剂产品销售收入 10.97 亿元，同比下降 36.98%。吸入制产品收入有所波动主要是由于：1）妥布 霉素 24 年收入主要来自于 ICU 科室销售，放量较慢；2）左沙丁胺醇受集采政 策影响收入下滑；3）23 年呼吸疾病高发形成较高基数。整体来看，24 年收入 有所波动，随着集采等负面因素消退，预计 25 年有望依托妥布霉素、舒利迭、 TG-1000 等产品的逐步放量拉动吸入制剂板块收入增长。 保健品和 OTC 产品快速发展，驱动板块收入快速增长。24 年健康元（不含丽珠 集团、丽珠单抗）保健食品及 OTC 板块实现营业收入 6.97 亿元，同比增长约 53.91%。保健食品与 OTC 板块利用小红书、抖音、微信等新媒体内容渠道，通 过达人推荐、健康科普、达人直播带货等方式创作优质的内容触达用户，传递品 牌理念，驱动品牌全渠道的销售增长。我们预计 25~26 年板块发展势头良好， 收入有望维持较快增速。 研发有序投入，创新转型可期。在 ...

2025 年 6 月 30 日 总量研究 各类行业主题基金普遍上涨，港股 ETF 资金显著净流入 ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20250630 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.6.23-2025.6.27）国内权益市场情绪高涨，创业板指领涨，原油指数大 幅回调。行业方面，本周各申万行业多数上涨，计算机、国防军工、非银金 融行业涨幅居前，石油石化、食品饮料、交通运输行业呈现回调。基金市场 方面，本周权益类基金净值表现占优，股票指数型基金上涨 3.11%，中长期 纯债型基金小幅回调。 基金产品发行情况：本周国内新基市场热度延续，新成立基金 43 只，合计 发行份额 317.82 亿份，6 月以来新成立基金数量份额创今年新高。本周新成 立基金包括债券型基金 9 只、混合型基金 12 只、股票型基金 17 只、FOF 基 金 3 只、REITs1 只、国际(QDII)基金 1 只。全市场新发行基金 21 只，从类 型来看，股票型基金 9 只、债券型基金 5 只、混合型基金 5 只、FOF 基金 1 只、REITs1 只。 基金产品表现跟踪：长期行业主题基金指数方面 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a robust and high-quality growth in a weak demand environment, continuing to advance its dual-focus strategy [10] - For the fiscal year 2024/25, the company reported a revenue of 25.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.51 billion RMB, up 14.3% year-on-year [5] - The company’s gross margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 57.3%, while the operating margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 19.2% [5][8] Financial Performance - The company’s main business segments showed varied performance: brand down jackets increased by 11%, OEM processing by 26%, women's wear decreased by 21%, and diversified clothing increased by 3% [6] - Online sales for the entire brand reached 7.58 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, with the brand down jackets accounting for 34.5% of the revenue [6] - As of March 2025, the company had 3,470 down jacket stores, a net increase of 253 stores, reflecting a 7.9% growth [7] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s operating expenses ratio decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 38.5%, indicating effective cost control [8] - The inventory increased by 23.6% to 3.95 billion RMB, with inventory turnover days slightly increasing to 118 days [9] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to a dual-focus strategy centered on down jackets and fashionable functional apparel, aiming for steady growth despite external challenges [10] - The report anticipates continued revenue growth exceeding 10% for the main business segments, showcasing the resilience of the brand and operations [10] Earnings Forecast - The report projects revenue growth rates of 10.1% for FY2026 and 10.0% for FY2027, with net profit growth rates of 11.5% and 11.4% respectively [11] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for FY2026 is projected at 0.34 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing advantages of raw milk and structural upgrades that enhance profitability [1][2] - New product iterations and management empowerment are anticipated to drive long-term growth, with new products contributing over 10% to overall revenue [1] - The company’s flexible milk source structure, with 30% from self-owned farms, 30% from joint ventures, and 40% from social farms, allows for profit enhancement under cost advantages [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Projected revenue for 2023 is 10,987 million yuan, with a growth rate of 9.80%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 12,416 million yuan, with a growth rate of 5.09% [3][9] - The company’s net profit for 2023 is estimated at 431 million yuan, growing to 931 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 14.30% [3][9] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 26.9% in 2023 to 29.3% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [11] Cost Structure and Product Mix - The company’s cost structure is expected to benefit from a reduction in raw milk prices, which have decreased to 3.04 yuan per kilogram as of June 2025 [2] - The product mix is shifting towards low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt, which have higher gross margins compared to room-temperature products (40%+ for low-temperature fresh milk vs. 20%+ for room-temperature) [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.50 yuan in 2023 to 1.08 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 38 to 17 over the same period [3][12] - The report forecasts a return on equity (ROE) improvement from 16.85% in 2023 to 20.23% in 2027, indicating enhanced shareholder value [3][11]