Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-metallic building materials sector [6]. Core Insights - The glass industry is characterized by heavy asset attributes and continuous production, leading to rigid supply dynamics. The report highlights the structural differentiation between float glass and photovoltaic glass, indicating that the float glass sector is experiencing a downward cycle while photovoltaic glass is entering a growth phase [8][10]. Supply and Production Characteristics - The float glass production process is the mainstream method, accounting for 80%-90% of total production. The industry is heavily reliant on raw materials such as silica sand and soda ash, with fixed assets and construction in progress representing approximately 60% and 40% of total revenue for float and photovoltaic glass leaders, respectively [1][2]. - The glass production lines have a design lifespan of 8-10 years, necessitating continuous operation once ignited, which creates supply rigidity. The report notes that the supply side is influenced by policies that restrict new capacity and require capacity replacement [2][42]. Demand Analysis - Demand for float glass is primarily driven by the real estate sector and automotive industry, with real estate construction area being the leading factor. The report predicts a contraction in float glass demand over the next two to three years, although the decline will narrow [2][3]. - Photovoltaic glass demand is driven by the growth in photovoltaic installations and the penetration rate of double-glass modules, with expectations for continued growth in global and Chinese photovoltaic installations until 2030 [2][3]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost structure of the glass industry is dominated by raw materials and energy, accounting for over 80% of total costs. Float glass is sensitive to raw material prices, while photovoltaic glass is more sensitive to energy prices [3]. - The report indicates that the gross margin gap between leading and lagging companies in the float glass sector has widened from 14 percentage points to 20 percentage points from 2015 to 2024, reflecting increased profitability for leading firms [3]. Competitive Advantage Analysis - Scale advantages and vertical integration are key factors for leading companies to maintain low-cost advantages. The report highlights that leading firms like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group have significantly outperformed their peers in revenue scale, further widening the gap [4]. - Leading companies are increasing their self-supply ratio of raw materials to reduce production costs, with Qibin Group's self-supply ratio of silica sand increasing from 48% in 2019 to 70% in 2024 [4]. Investment Recommendations - For the float glass sector, the report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group, as the trend of increasing concentration among leading firms is expected to continue [4][10]. - In the photovoltaic glass sector, the report anticipates a wave of small and medium-sized enterprises exiting the market, leading to increased concentration among leading firms like Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass [4][10].

2025 年 12 月 12 日 公司研究 血制品龙头大力布局创新，高分红比例凸显长期投资价值 ——华兰生物（002007.SZ）跟踪报告 要点 血制品业务稳健增长，四价流感疫苗接种需求显著增强。截至 2025 年中报，公 司下属单采血浆站数量为 34 家（含 6 家分站）；2024 年，公司采浆量超过 100 吨的单采血浆站有 4 个，成熟期浆站的年平均采浆量均在国内前列。随着新开浆 站采浆量的提升，血浆综合利用率的提高，公司血制品业务有望保持稳健增长。 疫苗板块，随着 10 月以来民众接种流感疫苗意识显著增强，各地疾控中心的需 求显著增加，公司流感疫苗特别是四价流感病毒裂解疫苗的库存消化较快，公司 为此增加了多个批次四价流感疫苗的批签发申请，预计近期将投放市场。 大力布局创新，参股基因公司进入收获期。公司在血制品领域进行现有产品的工 艺升级和新产品开发之外，亦加大疫苗、创新药和生物类似药物的研发投入：1） 血制品领域，新工艺静注人免疫球蛋白（10%）已完成现场核查生产，皮下注射 人免疫球蛋白计划提交 Pre-IND，人凝血因子Ⅸ正在开展Ⅲ临床研究；2）疫苗 领域，疫苗公司加快推进重组带状疱疹疫苗（CHO ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The successful launch of the Daqing Petrochemical 1000 tons/year ultra-fine acrylic fiber project marks a significant technological breakthrough, breaking foreign monopolies and filling a domestic industrial gap [2][3]. - The project, with a total investment of 110 million yuan, utilizes advanced domestic spinning technology and has achieved a high level of production line standardization, enhancing China's textile industry chain's self-sufficiency [2]. - The company is actively expanding into emerging business areas such as unconventional oil and gas, new materials, and digital intelligence, with new contracts in these sectors reaching 20.596 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for 28.06% of total new contracts, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.56% [3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 738 million, 825 million, and 929 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.13, 0.15, and 0.17 yuan per share [4][10]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 80.343 billion yuan in 2023 to 98.803 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.74% [10][12]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 2.86% in 2023 to 3.29% in 2027, indicating a gradual enhancement in profitability [12].

12 月美联储如期降息，更显"鸽派"。一是鲍威尔成功管控内部分歧，仅 2 票反对 降息。二是启动准备金管理型扩表，自 12 月起每月以 400 亿美元购买短期国债，释 放流动性。三是美联储上修 GDP 预测并下修通胀预测，指向 2026 年美国经济回暖， 通胀可控。展望看，明年一季度美联储或暂缓降息，待二季度新任美联储主席上台后， 自 6 月起至 11 月中选前的 4 次议息会议上择机降息 2-3 次。 2025 年 12 月 12 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】如期降息，扩表在途——2025 年 12 月 FOMC 会议点评 | 外汇市场 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 中间价 | | 涨跌 | | 美元兑人民币 | 7.0753 | -0.03 | | 欧元兑人民币 | 8.2258 | -0.14 | | 日元兑人民币 | 0.0451 | -0.64 | | 港币兑人民币 | 0.9093 | -0.06 | | 利率市场 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回购市场 前加权平均利率% | | 涨跌 BP | | DR001 | 1. ...

2025 年 12 月 11 日 总量研究 降准降息或将较快落地 ——2025 年 12 月 11 日利率债观察 要点 1、降准降息或将较快落地 2025 年 12 月 11-12 日召开的中央经济工作会议要求"灵活高效运用降准降息 等多种政策工具"。我们预计，未来一、两个月内降准或降息落地的概率较高。 降准和降息既有共同的作用，也受到共同的制约。此外，补充银行体系流动性是 降准特有的作用，而降息还受到银行净息差的制约。我们认为，在不同阶段宜根 据经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况选择不同的政策工具。 降准和降息共同的作用：保持社会融资条件相对宽松，促进经济稳定增长。当然， 两个工具的作用机制是不同的。降准主要是通过向银行提供低成本长期资金，降 息主要是通过直接带动 LPR 等利率下行。（注：两者也会通过影响市场主体预 期等渠道促进经济稳定增长。）一般来说，10bp OMO 降息较 0.5 个百分点降准 的作用会更明显一些。 降准和降息共同受到的制约：货币政策的空间。当前 7D OMO 利率为 1.4%，倘 若每次降 10bp 的话，在降 14 次后便会触及零利率。当前大型银行的存款准备 金率为 7.5%，倘若每 ...

2025 年 12 月 11 日 总量研究 如期降息，扩表在途 ——2025 年 12 月 FOMC 会议点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 美联储有望开启新一轮宽松周期——2025 年 9 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-09-18） 美联储在等待关税"冲击"——2025 年 6 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-06-20） 美联储短期强硬，下半年或更为主动—— 2025 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-05-08） 美联储"降息的心"始终不变——2025 年 3 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-03-20） 美联储将如何步入特朗普时代？——2024 年 11 月 FOMC 会议点评（2024-11-08） 美联储后续降息路径如何演绎？——2024 年 9 月 FOMC 会议点评（2024-09-20） 美联储降息窗口逐步临近——2024 年 7 月 F ...

2025 年 12 月 11 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】CPI 涨势能否延续？——2025 年 11 月价格数据点评 11 月 CPI 同比涨幅扩大，主因低基数效应下，鲜菜价格超季节性上涨；核心 CPI 同 比增速走平，其中金价上涨影响继续扩大，但"以旧换新"对耐用品价格支撑减弱， 节后出行需求回落导致服务价格涨势放缓。PPI 环比继续上涨，但受上年基数影响， 同比降幅略有扩大。结构来看，上游煤炭和有色价格领涨，中游设备制造价格有所好 转，下游消费制造价格企稳，"反内卷"效果持续显现。 行业研究 【医药】医保和商保目录并轨，扩容与提质并重，支持创新药高质量发展——2025 年版医保目录调整政策点评(增持) | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3900.5 | -0.23 | | 沪深 300 | 4591.83 | -0.14 | | 深证成指 | 13316.42 | 0.29 | | 中小板指 | 8030.8 | 0.31 | | 创业板指 | 3209 | -0.02 | | | 股指期货 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the non-ferrous metals sector [5] Core Views - The report highlights a continuous increase in the prices of praseodymium and neodymium oxide, as well as electrolytic cobalt, indicating a positive trend in the metal new materials sector [1][4] - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost advantages and resource expansion potential in the lithium mining sector, as lithium prices have reached approximately 92,000 yuan per ton [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price ratios between electrolytic cobalt and cobalt powder, as well as between electrolytic cobalt and cobalt sulfate, to gauge the relative health of the military and new energy vehicle sectors [10][11] Summary by Sections Military New Materials - The price of electrolytic cobalt is reported at 408,000 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2.0% [1] - The price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder is 0.78, up by 1.5% week-on-week, while the ratio to cobalt sulfate is 4.44, up by 1.2% [11] - Carbon fiber prices remain stable at 83.8 yuan per kilogram, with a gross profit of -9.53 yuan per kilogram [1][22] New Energy Vehicle Materials - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is reported at 582.72 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.8% [1] - The prices of battery-grade lithium hydroxide and lithium iron phosphate are reported at 82,400 yuan per ton and 39,100 yuan per ton, respectively, with slight changes [1][39] - The report notes that the production of new energy vehicles reached 1.7718 million units in October 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 21.1% [24] Photovoltaic New Materials - The price of EVA has decreased to 9,900 yuan per ton, marking a 2.0% decline and remaining at a low level since 2013 [2] - The price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is stable at 6.50 USD per kilogram [2] Other Materials - The report indicates that the price of platinum has increased by 2.9%, while rhodium has decreased by 3.4% [3] - The price of high-purity gallium and indium remains stable, while silicon carbide has seen a significant drop of 6.9% [3]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November 2025, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2] - The main driver for the CPI increase was the turnaround in food prices, particularly fresh vegetable prices, which rose by 14.5% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 7.3% in the previous month[4][5] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year, with gold prices contributing significantly to this stability, while service prices showed a slowdown due to seasonal demand[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November, slightly worse than the previous month's decline of 2.1%, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year[8] - PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the second consecutive month of growth, driven by rising prices in the coal and non-ferrous metal sectors[8][9] - The "anti-involution" effect is evident as downstream consumer goods prices stabilize, while upstream coal and metal prices continue to rise[11] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to maintain its upward trend in December, supported by low base effects and rising food prices, with a projected average CPI growth rate of 0.7% for the coming year[10] - The PPI's year-on-year decline is anticipated to narrow, influenced by global manufacturing recovery and domestic supply-demand adjustments, although the timing for a return to positive growth remains uncertain[11] - The recovery of domestic demand and the potential for a rebound in pork prices are critical factors that could influence CPI trends in the upcoming months[10]

2025 年 12 月 10 日 行业研究 医保和商保目录并轨，扩容与提质并重，支持创新药高质量发展 ——2025 年版医保目录调整政策点评 作者 分析师：王明瑞 执业证书编号：S0930520080004 021-52523867 wangmingrui@ebscn.com 分析师：黄素青 执业证书编号：S0930521080001 021-52523570 huangsuqing@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 -12% -4% 4% 12% 20% 12/24 03/25 06/25 09/25 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源：Wind 要点 事件：2025 年 12 月 7 日，国家医保局、人力资源社会保障部发布《国家基本医疗 保险、工伤保险和生育保险药品目录（2025 年）》以及首版《商业健康保险创新药 品目录（2025 年）》，要求进一步推动商业健康保险与基本医保的有效衔接。 点评： 医药生物 基本医保谈判成功率创 7 年新高，首版商保目录纳入 19 种药品。本次调整后，医 保目录内药品总数从 3159 种增加至 3253 种，其中西药 1857 种、中成药 1396 种， 协 ...