Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: PB-ROE-50 **Model Construction Idea**: The model combines Price-to-Book ratio (PB) and Return on Equity (ROE) to select stocks with high profitability and reasonable valuation[3][25] **Model Construction Process**: The PB-ROE-50 portfolio is constructed by selecting 50 stocks with the highest combined scores of PB and ROE within specific stock pools (e.g., CSI 500, CSI 800, and the entire market). The portfolio is rebalanced periodically to maintain its composition[25][26] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates consistent excess returns across different stock pools, indicating its effectiveness in capturing profitable investment opportunities[25][26] - **Model Name**: Institutional Research Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages public and private institutional research data to identify stocks with potential excess returns[28] **Model Construction Process**: The portfolio is constructed based on institutional research data, with public research focusing on CSI 800 stocks and private research tracking broader market stocks. Stocks are selected based on research frequency and sentiment, and the portfolio is rebalanced monthly[28][29] **Model Evaluation**: The model shows positive excess returns, particularly for private research tracking strategies, suggesting its ability to capture valuable insights from institutional activities[28][29] - **Model Name**: Block Trade Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies stocks with high block trade activity and low volatility to capture potential excess returns[31] **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected based on "block trade transaction ratio" and "6-day transaction volatility." The portfolio is rebalanced monthly to maintain its focus on high-transaction, low-volatility stocks[31][32] **Model Evaluation**: The model's performance varies, with occasional excess return drawdowns, highlighting the need for careful monitoring and adjustment[31][32] - **Model Name**: Directed Issuance Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model focuses on stocks involved in directed issuance events to capture event-driven investment opportunities[37] **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected based on directed issuance announcements, considering factors like market capitalization, rebalancing frequency, and position control. The portfolio is rebalanced periodically to align with event-driven dynamics[37][38] **Model Evaluation**: The model shows mixed results, with occasional excess return drawdowns, indicating the need for further refinement in capturing event-driven effects[37][38] --- Model Backtesting Results - **PB-ROE-50 Model** - CSI 500: Weekly excess return 1.17%, absolute return 1.99%[25][26] - CSI 800: Weekly excess return 1.21%, absolute return 2.58%[25][26] - Entire Market: Weekly excess return 1.36%, absolute return 2.51%[25][26] - **Institutional Research Portfolio** - Public Research: Weekly excess return 0.02%, absolute return 1.37%[28][29] - Private Research: Weekly excess return 0.25%, absolute return 1.61%[28][29] - **Block Trade Portfolio** - Weekly excess return -0.24%, absolute return 0.88%[31][32] - **Directed Issuance Portfolio** - Weekly excess return -0.69%, absolute return 0.43%[37][38] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: BP Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor uses the Book-to-Price ratio to identify undervalued stocks[20] **Factor Construction Process**: BP is calculated as the inverse of the Price-to-Book ratio. Stocks with higher BP values are considered undervalued and selected for portfolios[20] **Factor Evaluation**: BP demonstrates positive returns in multiple industries, indicating its effectiveness in identifying undervalued stocks[23][24] - **Factor Name**: ROE Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor measures profitability using Return on Equity[20] **Factor Construction Process**: ROE is calculated as net income divided by shareholder equity. Stocks with higher ROE values are considered more profitable and selected for portfolios[20] **Factor Evaluation**: ROE shows positive returns across various industries, highlighting its ability to capture profitable investment opportunities[23][24] - **Factor Name**: Nonlinear Market Cap Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor captures the impact of market capitalization on stock returns using a nonlinear approach[20] **Factor Construction Process**: Nonlinear transformations of market capitalization are applied to identify stocks with specific size-related characteristics[20] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows negative returns, indicating challenges in capturing size-related effects[20] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **BP Factor** - Weekly return 0.30%[20] - **ROE Factor** - Weekly return 0.27%[20] - **Nonlinear Market Cap Factor** - Weekly return -0.31%[20] - **Scale Factor** - Weekly return -0.29%[20]

总量研究 政府就业回升不可持续，美国非农弱势渐显 ——2025 年 6 月美国非农数据点评 要点 2025 年 7 月 4 日 事件： 2025 年 7 月 3 日，美国劳工部公布 2025 年 6 月非农数据：新增非农就业 14.7 万人，预期 11.0 万人，前值由 13.9 万人修正至 14.4 万人；6 月失业率 4.1%， 预期 4.3%，前值 4.2%；平均时薪同比升 3.7%，预期升 3.9%，前值由升 3.9% 修正至升 3.8%。 核心观点： 2025 年 6 月美国新增就业回升，但仍有隐忧。一方面，从结构看，6 月政府就 业贡献新增就业近一半，远超季节性趋势，或因 DOGE 改革暂歇后的暂时性回 补，持续性存疑。另一方面，相比于政府部门，6 月私人部门就业转弱，服务业 部门新增就业明显放缓，从前值的 14.1 万人降至 6.8 万人，反映出关税扰动下 美国经济的潜在压力，不宜高估本次非农数据的韧性。 考虑到政府就业回升不可持续，非农数据有转弱风险，美联储在下半年重启降息 操作的概率较大。客观上看，本次非农数据高于预期，同时减税法案顺利落地， 缓和经济衰退担忧，短期内美联储或继续保持观望，7 ...

Group 1: Tax Reform Overview - The tax reform primarily extends existing tax cuts from the 2017 tax reform, with a limited incremental scale of approximately $4.5 trillion over the next ten years, while new tax relief measures amount to only $0.7 trillion[3] - The tax reform focuses on individual tax cuts, with an estimated reduction in tax revenue of about $4.2 trillion for individual taxes compared to $1.1 trillion for corporate taxes over the same period[4] - The U.S. government deficit is projected to increase by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade due to the tax reform, despite potential increases in tariff revenues[5] Group 2: Economic Impact - The tax reform is expected to partially offset the economic pressure from tariffs, potentially alleviating recession expectations in the U.S. economy[2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the tax reform could increase U.S. GDP growth by an average of 0.5 percentage points from 2025 to 2034, while tariffs are projected to decrease GDP growth by 0.6 to 0.8 percentage points[14] - The distributional effects of the tax reform indicate that the bottom 10% of low-income households may see a decrease in disposable income by about 2% by 2027, while the top 10% may benefit from an increase[15]

2025 年 7 月 4 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 | | 外汇市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 中间价 | 涨跌 | | 美元兑人民币 | 7.1523 | -0.03 | | 欧元兑人民币 | 8.4463 | 0.01 | | 日元兑人民币 | 0.0499 | -0.01 | | 港币兑人民币 | 0.9111 | -0.04 | 行业研究 【钢铁】落后产能退出预期再起，重视钢铁板块投资机会——钢铁行业动态点评(增持) 在中央财经委员会强调"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质， 推动落后产能有序退出"的大背景下，我们认为钢铁板块的盈利有望修复到历史均值 水平，钢铁股的 PB 也有望随之修复，重点推荐柳钢股份、三钢闽光、新钢股份、首 钢股份、华菱钢铁、宝钢股份等。 公司研究 【通信】双轮驱动，成长空间广阔——美格智能（002881.SZ）跟踪报告之六(增持) 我们认为，AI 应用有望带动公司产品需求快速增长，同时，公司智能模组/高算力模 组产品持续迭代，有望带动公司业绩高速增长。我们上调公司 25-26 年归母净利润预 测为 1.82/2.67 亿元 ...

2025 年 7 月 3 日 ——钢铁行业动态点评 要点 事件：（ 1）2025 年 7 月 1 日，中央财经委员会第六次会议，研究纵深推进 全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题，会议强调，纵深推进全 国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引 导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出；（2）7 月 2 日，Mysteel 关 于"唐山 7 月 4-15 日烧结机限产 30%"的传闻进行调研，了解到目前约半数钢 厂表示有收到通知，剩余多数钢厂也表示大概率确实有。 2025 年国内钢材需求、净出口量或进一步走弱，预计同比减少 0.34 亿吨。（1） 内需：根据冶金工业规划院预测，2025 年我国钢材需求量约为 8.50 亿吨，同比 -1.5%，较 2024 年减少 0.13 亿吨。（2）净出口：2024 年国内钢材净出口量为 1.04 亿吨（占当年粗钢产量的 10.34%），同比+25.78%。2025 年初以来，韩国、 越南对于我国部分钢材出口反倾销政策陆续落地，叠加美国对华钢铁加征关税政 策的影响，我们预测 2025 年钢材净出口或降至 2023 年水平，同比-0.21 亿吨 ...

大行晨報 - 加元短線或可先行獲利 - 2025 年 7 月 3 日星島日報 / 頭條日報 https://www.stheadline.com/columnists/finance- property/3470009/%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%8C%E6%99%A8%E5%A0%B1- %E5%8A%A0%E5%85%83%E7%9F%AD%E7%B7%9A%E6%88%96%E5%8F%AF%E5%85%88%E8%A1%8C %E7%8D%B2%E5%88%A9%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%8C%E6%99%A8%E5%A0%B1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Views - The company adopts a dual-driven product strategy focusing on wireless communication modules and IoT solutions, which creates a competitive advantage through customized solutions for various vertical industries [1]. - The company is committed to high R&D investment, with an allocation of 256 million yuan for 2024, representing 8.69% of revenue, aimed at enhancing product and technological competitiveness [2]. - The company has submitted its application for overseas listing (H shares) to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, indicating plans for expansion and increased market presence [2]. - The company has implemented an incentive plan granting stock options and restricted stocks to key personnel, which may enhance employee motivation and align interests with shareholders [3]. - The forecast for the company's net profit has been revised upwards for 2025 and 2026, with expected profits of 182 million yuan and 267 million yuan respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory driven by AI applications and product iterations [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 2,147 million yuan in 2023 to 5,556 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17.79% [4][7]. - The net profit is expected to increase significantly from 65 million yuan in 2023 to 357 million yuan in 2027, indicating a robust growth rate [4][7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.25 yuan in 2023 to 1.36 yuan in 2027, reflecting improved profitability [4][7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 187 in 2023 to 34 in 2027, suggesting a more attractive valuation over time [4][10]. Key Financial Metrics - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 17.5% to 18.8% from 2025 to 2027, indicating a focus on maintaining profitability despite competitive pressures [9]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 4.4% in 2023 to 15.8% in 2027, reflecting enhanced efficiency in generating profits from equity [9]. - The company’s total assets are anticipated to grow from 2,145 million yuan in 2023 to 3,696 million yuan in 2027, indicating a strengthening balance sheet [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The coal, float glass, and steel industries are expected to experience negative profit growth year-on-year, while the refining industry maintains stable profitability due to a rebound in oil prices [1] - The overall economic data shows stability, with PMI rolling averages stabilizing and housing sales area declining slightly year-on-year [1] Group 2: Quantitative Analysis - As of June 30, 2025, the proportion of rising stocks in the CSI 300 index increased month-on-month, indicating a high market sentiment with over 60% of stocks rising [2] - Momentum indicators suggest a bullish outlook, with short-term sentiment indicators placing the CSI 300 index in a favorable emotional zone [2] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies was CNY 1.8 trillion, with a year-on-year decline of 11.4% [3] - The sales area for the same period was 85.97 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 22.2% [3] - Some leading real estate companies, such as China Jinmao and Yuexiu Property, showed positive sales growth, with increases of 20% and 11% respectively [3] Group 4: Company Research - The report highlights that GoerTek, a leading XR design and manufacturing company, is expected to benefit from the launch of AI glasses by Xiaomi, indicating a positive growth trend in the XR business [4] - The company's market share in XR manufacturing is high, and factors such as the recovery of its headphone business and optimization of its smart hardware product structure are expected to drive revenue growth [4] - The projected PE ratios for GoerTek from 2025 to 2027 are 24X, 20X, and 17X respectively, supporting a "buy" rating for the company [4]

2025 年 7 月 2 日 总量研究 能繁母猪存栏微增，炼化行业景气度同比持稳 ——金融工程行业景气月报 20250702 要点 行业景气度信号追踪 煤炭：25 年 6 月，煤价低于上年同期，我们预测 25 年 7 月行业利润同比下降， 维持煤炭行业中性观点。 畜牧养殖：25 年 5 月底能繁母猪存栏为 4042 万头，环比微增。据此我们预测 25Q4 生猪供需平衡，猪肉价格底部震荡，等待产能明显去化阶段。 普钢：我们预测 25 年 6 月普钢行业利润同比负增长。PMI 滚动均值环比未超阈 值，维持普钢行业中性信号。 结构材料与建筑工程：我们测算 25 年 6 月浮法玻璃毛利同比下降，维持玻璃行 业中性信号；我们预测水泥行业 25 年 6 月利润同比正增长，等待房屋新开工面 积出现积极信号，维持水泥行业中性观点；制造业 PMI 滚动均值企稳，商品房 销售数据同比微降，经济数据维持企稳态势，预计基建托底预期难以发酵，维持 建筑装饰行业中性信号。 燃料型炼化与油服：我们预测燃料型炼化行业 25 年 6 月利润同比大体持平，维 持中性观点。油价尚未形成同比上行趋势，新钻井同比大体持平，维持油服中性 观点。 风险分 ...

2025 年 7 月 2 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【金工】新股发行节奏提速，网下打新热度提升——打新市场跟踪月报 20250701 | 外汇市场 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 中间价 | | 涨跌 | | 美元兑人民币 | 7.1534 | -0.07 | | 欧元兑人民币 | 8.4305 | 0.33 | | 日元兑人民币 | 0.0497 | 0.21 | | 港币兑人民币 | 0.9113 | -0.07 | | 利率市场 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回购市场 前加权平均利率% | | 涨跌 BP | | DR001 | 1.3673 | -14.29 | | DR007 | 1.5457 | -37.02 | | DR014 | 1.6194 | -27 | | 二级市场 | YTM% | 涨跌 BP | | 一年期国债 | 1.3377 | -0.25 | | 五年期国债 | 1.5075 | -0.54 | | 十年期国债 | 1.6433 | -0.36 | 数据来源：Wind, Bloomberg 2025 年 6 ...