2025 年 5 月 25 日 行业研究 出栏均重本周下降，猪价环比降幅扩大 ——光大证券农林牧渔行业周报（20250519-20250525） 要点 本周猪价下跌。根据博亚和讯， 5 月 23 日全国外三元生猪均价为 14.20 元 /kg，周环比下跌 2.81%，15 公斤仔猪均价 35.56 元/公斤，周环比下跌 1.85%。根据涌益咨询数据，本周商品猪出栏均重为 129.38kg，周环比下跌 0.25%，全国冻品库容率为 13.95%，环比下降 0.06pct。库存端，涌益出栏均 重本周出现环比下降，宰后均重上行愈发放缓，均重变化指示着库存转向去 库。随着大猪出栏意愿松动，市场供应充足，而需求提振乏力，本周猪价持续 弱势下行。 白羽肉鸡方面，本周毛鸡价格下跌，鸡苗价格持平。截至 5 月 23 日，白羽肉 毛鸡价格为 7.36 元/公斤，周环比下跌 0.54%，鸡苗价格 2.85 元/羽，周环比 持平。毛鸡方面，合同鸡供应量增加，屠宰企业有库存压力且宰杀亏损，采购 社会鸡意愿减弱。鸡苗方面，供应宽松，北方农忙在即，养殖户鸡苗补栏谨 慎，部分种鸡场鸡苗订单放缓，种鸡场有挺价情绪，苗价整体维稳。 本周玉米现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that copper prices will rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand, with specific recommendations for companies such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Environment - Recent trade conflicts have eased, but the negative impacts of tariffs and trade disputes on the economy have yet to manifest, which continues to suppress copper price increases [1]. - As of May 23, 2025, the SHFE copper closing price was 77,790 RMB/ton, down 0.4% from May 16, while the LME copper closing price was 9,614 USD/ton, up 1.76% [1][17]. Supply and Demand - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory continues to rise, primarily due to the weakening of preemptive stocking against tariffs and the seasonal downturn in demand [1]. - The operating rate of cable enterprises remains above 80%, with production of air conditioners expected to continue growing in June and July [1]. - As of May 23, 2025, domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 780,000 tons, down 4.8% from the previous week [2][49]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 5.4% [2][25]. - Global inventory across the three major exchanges totaled 452,000 tons as of May 16, 2025, up 4.7% from the previous week [2]. Smelting and Processing - The TC spot price reached a new low of -44.30 USD/pound as of May 23, 2025, down 1.3 USD/pound from May 16 [3][63]. - The electrolytic copper production in China for April 2025 was 1,125,700 tons, up 0.3% month-on-month and 14.3% year-on-year [68]. Futures Market - The SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 11% week-on-week, with a total position of 152,000 lots as of May 23, 2025 [4][33]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position decreased by 2.2% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that copper prices are likely to rise in 2025, recommending specific companies for investment [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment rating for major broad-based indices as of May 23, 2025, with the ChiNext Index classified as "safe" and other indices categorized as "moderate" [19][22]. Core Insights - The market experienced a contraction with major indices declining during the week of May 19-23, 2025. The report highlights a rapid rotation in themes, with precious metals and automotive sectors performing well. However, the "dividend + micro-cap" strategy showed signs of short-term adjustment after reaching a yearly high, suggesting a potential decline in trading preferences [12][13]. - The report emphasizes that liquidity easing and rising risk appetite are expected to drive a rebound in A-shares in the medium to long term, with "dividend + small-cap" combinations being the preferred allocation strategy post-adjustment [12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Major indices saw declines: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.57%, SSE 50 down 0.18%, CSI 300 down 0.18%, CSI 500 down 1.10%, CSI 1000 down 1.29%, ChiNext Index down 0.88%, and North Star 50 down 3.68% [13][14]. Valuation Analysis - As of May 23, 2025, the ChiNext Index is in the "safe" valuation percentile, while other major indices are in the "moderate" range. In terms of sector valuation, industries such as construction materials, light industry manufacturing, power equipment and new energy, defense and military, computer, and comprehensive finance are classified as "dangerous," while non-ferrous metals, utilities, home appliances, food and beverage, agriculture, non-bank financials, and transportation are deemed "safe" [19][20]. Fund Flow Tracking - The report notes that institutional interest was highest for stocks like Huichuan Technology (352 institutions), Fuchuang Precision (109), Bozhong Precision (106), Boshi Software (102), and Shengmei Shanghai (101) during the week [51]. - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 18.96 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 19.05 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect experiencing a net outflow of 0.97 billion HKD [3]. Sector Performance - The top five performing sectors this week were comprehensive, pharmaceuticals, automotive, non-ferrous metals, and home appliances, while the worst performers included comprehensive finance, computers, electronics, machinery, and communications [15]. Institutional Research - A total of 379 institutional research activities were recorded, with the majority focused on companies listed in Shenzhen and Shanghai. The report highlights that specific object research and other types accounted for 78.36% and 8.71% of the total, respectively [42][46].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 20.90 CNY, corresponding to a PE ratio of approximately 33 times for 2025 [4][14][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the domestic water-jet non-woven fabric industry, demonstrating a long-term commitment to craftsmanship. The penetration rate of water-jet non-woven fabrics is on the rise, with diverse downstream applications such as wet wipes and oral nicotine pouches showing rapid growth [12][51][67]. - The company's three main business segments—roll materials, products, and proprietary brands—are developing synergistically, with strong performance in 2024 and Q1 2025. The roll material segment is expanding its capacity for differentiated and flushable materials, while the product segment, led by Guoguang, is gradually entering high-margin clients [4][12][33]. Company Overview - Founded in 2002, the company specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of differentiated and personalized water-jet non-woven materials and products. Its products are primarily used in beauty care, industrial materials, household cleaning, and medical materials [22][23]. - The company achieved a revenue of 2.24 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 95.23 million CNY, up 15.2% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit grew by 39.1% and 48.6% respectively [1][4][23]. Industry Situation - The water-jet non-woven fabric market is characterized by high demand due to its breathable, soft, lightweight, and antibacterial properties, making it suitable for disposable consumer products and beauty care markets. The production of water-jet non-woven fabrics reached 151,000 tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.6% from 2018 to 2023 [2][55]. - The Chinese wet wipes market is projected to reach 12.92 billion CNY in 2024, with a CAGR of 5.0% from 2024 to 2029, indicating significant growth potential in this segment [2][68]. Business Highlights - The roll material segment has advanced production lines and strong technical innovation capabilities, with the company being the only one in China capable of mass-producing flushable materials for the U.S. market. The company is increasing the proportion of differentiated and flushable materials in its production [3][12]. - The product segment, primarily through its subsidiary Guoguang, has a comprehensive product line for wet wipes, achieving a revenue growth of 26.6% in 2024 and over 40% in Q1 2025. Guoguang is expanding its partnerships with major retailers and acquiring new clients [3][12]. - The proprietary brand "Xiaozhijia" is rapidly growing, with a revenue increase of 80.6% year-on-year in 2024, supported by the company's technical strength [3][12]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.62 billion CNY, 3.10 billion CNY, and 3.60 billion CNY in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.31%, 18.09%, and 16.25%. Net profits are projected to be 112 million CNY, 136 million CNY, and 163 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 17.61%, 21.35%, and 19.80% respectively [4][14][5].

- Model Name: Volume Timing Model; Model Construction Idea: The model uses volume indicators to maintain a cautious view under the background of shrinking volume; Model Construction Process: The volume timing signal for major broad-based indices is calculated and maintained a cautious view as of May 23, 2025[1][2][22]; Model Evaluation: The model is effective in maintaining a cautious stance during periods of shrinking volume[22] - Factor Name: Upward Number Ratio of CSI 300; Factor Construction Idea: The factor calculates the proportion of stocks with positive returns in the CSI 300 index to judge market sentiment; Factor Construction Process: - CSI 300 Index N-day Upward Number Ratio = Number of CSI 300 Index constituent stocks with positive returns in the past N days / Total number of CSI 300 Index constituent stocks - The factor captures upward opportunities quickly and exits early during overheated market phases, but has limitations in avoiding downward risks[23][24][25]; Factor Evaluation: The factor is effective in capturing upward opportunities but has limitations in avoiding downward risks[24] - Factor Name: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator; Factor Construction Idea: The factor uses the eight moving average system to judge the trend state of the target index; Factor Construction Process: - Calculate the eight moving average values of the CSI 300 closing price with parameters 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233 - Assign values to the eight moving average indicator based on the interval value: -1 for intervals 1/2/3, 0 for intervals 4/5/6, and 1 for intervals 7/8/9 - When the current price exceeds the eight moving average indicator value in more than 5 cases, it indicates a bullish view on the CSI 300 index[27][31][32]; Factor Evaluation: The factor is effective in indicating the trend state of the CSI 300 index[34] - Factor Name: Cross-sectional Volatility; Factor Construction Idea: The factor measures the cross-sectional volatility of index constituent stocks to evaluate the Alpha environment; Factor Construction Process: - Calculate the cross-sectional volatility of CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index constituent stocks - Recent cross-sectional volatility of CSI 300 and CSI 500 index constituent stocks has decreased, indicating a worse short-term Alpha environment; CSI 1000 index constituent stocks' cross-sectional volatility has increased, indicating a better short-term Alpha environment[35][36][38]; Factor Evaluation: The factor is effective in evaluating the Alpha environment based on cross-sectional volatility[38] - Factor Name: Time Series Volatility; Factor Construction Idea: The factor measures the time series volatility of index constituent stocks to evaluate the Alpha environment; Factor Construction Process: - Calculate the time series volatility of CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index constituent stocks - Recent time series volatility of CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index constituent stocks has decreased, indicating a worse short-term Alpha environment[39][41]; Factor Evaluation: The factor is effective in evaluating the Alpha environment based on time series volatility[41] Model Backtest Results - Volume Timing Model, cautious view for all major broad-based indices as of May 23, 2025[23] Factor Backtest Results - Upward Number Ratio of CSI 300, recent ratio around 56%[24] - Moving Average Sentiment Indicator, short-term bullish view on CSI 300 index[34] - Cross-sectional Volatility, recent values for CSI 300: 1.75%, CSI 500: 2.04%, CSI 1000: 2.41%[38] - Time Series Volatility, recent values for CSI 300: 0.56%, CSI 500: 0.44%, CSI 1000: 0.27%[41]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The convertible bond market had a slight adjustment this week. Since the beginning of 2025, the convertible bond market has outperformed the equity market. Fundamental trends and macro - policies remain important influencing factors for the current convertible bond market. At present, investors can continue to focus on convertible bonds of high - performance underlying stocks in areas such as boosting domestic demand and domestic substitution [1][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Quotes - From May 19 to May 23, 2025 (5 trading days), the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell by 0.1% (0.3% in the previous trading week), and the CSI All - Share Index changed by - 0.7%. Since the beginning of 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by 3.3%, and the CSI All - Share Index has risen by 0.4% [1]. - By rating, high - rated bonds (AA + and above), medium - rated bonds (AA), and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) fell by 0.06%, 0.41%, and 0.52% respectively this week, with low - rated bonds having the largest decline. By convertible bond scale, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance > 5 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 500 million and 5 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance < 500 million yuan) rose by 0.30%, fell by 0.35%, and fell by 0.65% respectively, with small - scale convertible bonds having the largest decline. By conversion parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value > 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 130 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 70 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value < 70 yuan) fell by 1.14%, 0.38%, 0.45%, 0.31%, and 0.21% respectively, with ultra - high - parity bonds having the largest decline. By industry, the top 30 convertible bonds in terms of gains mainly came from the chemical (6) and machinery and equipment (4) sectors; the top 30 convertible bonds in terms of losses mainly came from the automobile (5), machinery and equipment (4), and chemical (4) sectors [2]. 2. Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of May 23, 2025, there were 473 outstanding convertible bonds (476 at the end of last week), with a balance of 674.315 billion yuan (677.491 billion yuan at the end of last week). The average convertible bond price was 120.75 yuan (120.48 yuan last week), and the quantile was 75.6% (74.7% last week). The average convertible bond parity was 92.02 yuan (91.99 yuan last week), and the quantile was 57.2% (57.1% last week). The average conversion premium rate was 30.2% (31.0% last week), and the quantile was 60.8% (62.0% last week). Among them, the conversion premium rate of medium - parity convertible bonds (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan) was 24.2% (24.3% last week), higher than the median conversion premium rate of medium - parity convertible bonds since 2018 (19.7%) [3]. 3. Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - The convertible bond market had a slight adjustment this week, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index falling by 0.1% (rising by 0.3% in the previous trading week). Since the beginning of 2025, the convertible bond market has outperformed the equity market. Looking ahead, fundamental trends and macro - policies are still important influencing factors for the current convertible bond market. At present, investors can continue to focus on convertible bonds of high - performance underlying stocks in areas such as boosting domestic demand and domestic substitution [4]. 4. Convertible Bond Rise Situation - The top 15 convertible bonds in terms of gains this week include Yanggu Convertible Bond, Jingzhuang Convertible Bond, Xuerong Convertible Bond, etc. For example, Yanggu Convertible Bond rose by 20.87%, and its underlying stock, Yanggu Huatai, rose by 32.05% [21].

2025 年 5 月 24 日 行业研究 磷肥出口放开，持续看好磷化工产业链 ——基础化工行业周报（20250510-20250516） 要点 25 年我国磷铵的出口量同比下降明显，随出口窗口期的到来，出口量有望提 升。根据百川盈孚数据，24 年我国磷酸一铵、磷酸二铵的出口量分别为 200.47、456.32 万吨，同比分别下降 1.6%、9.4%。25 年以来，我国磷酸 一铵、磷酸二铵的出口量同比下降明显，1-4 月我国磷酸一铵、磷酸二铵的 出口量分别为 7.53、7.98 万吨，同比分别下降 75.7%、85.3%，随着出口窗 口期的到来，在出口需求的拉动下，我国磷肥的出口量有望逐步回升，对应 的磷肥价格有望获得支撑或提振。 磷矿石价格维持高位，磷化工行业龙头企业多布局有高品位磷矿资源。磷矿 石方面，21 年以来，由于磷矿石供需紧张，磷矿石价格大幅上涨，并在近年 维持在高位价格水平，根据百川盈孚数据，截至 25 年 5 月 23 日，国内磷矿 石价格为 1020 元/吨。我国磷矿储量中以中低品位的磷矿居多，全国磷矿石 P2O5的平均品位仅为 17%左右，25%及以上中高品位磷矿石的储量占比仅在 20%左右 ...

2025 年 5 月 24 日 中证 500 股票池中，本周表现较好的因子有毛利率 TTM(1.65%)、单季度 ROA(1.40%)、单季度总资产毛利率(1.26%)，表现较差的因子有单季度净利润同 比增长率(-0.42%)、5 日反转(-0.49%)、早盘后收益因子(-0.64%)。 流动性 1500 股票池中，本周表现较好的因子有 5 日平均换手率(0.45%)、5 分 钟收益率偏度(0.36%)、下行波动率占比(0.33%)。表现较差的因子有动量弹簧因 子(-1.07%)、5 日反转(-1.11%)、单季度净利润同比增长率(-1.19%)。 因子行业内表现：本周，净资产增长率因子在综合行业表现较好，净利润增长率 因子在钢铁行业表现较好。每股净资产因子在美容护理行业表现较好；每股经营 利润 TTM 因子在煤炭行业表现较好。5 日动量因子在综合行业动量效应明显， 在石油石化、食品饮料行业反转效应明显；1 月动量因子在综合、轻工制造行业 动量效应明显，在汽车、交通运输、家用电器行业反转效应显著。估值类因子中， BP 因子在美容护理行业表现较好；EP 因子在煤炭行业表现较好。对数市值因子 在综合、煤炭行业正收 ...

2025 年 5 月 24 日 行业研究 磷肥出口放开，持续看好磷化工产业链 ——基础化工行业周报（20250510-20250516） 要点 磷肥的出口窗口期已至，磷肥企业的盈利能力有望维持。 23 年 5 月，海关总 署发布《进出口肥料检验规程》，并于 2023 年 12 月 1 日实施。这是中国进 出口商品检验部门首次发布规定出口肥料检验工作程序的技术规范，在提高 出口肥料质量的同时，将有望增加肥料出口数量。法检政策的常规化调控了 磷肥的出口量，国内外磷肥维持着一定的价差。根据百川盈孚，近期协会对 磷肥的出口指导公布，具体情况如下：1、2025 年磷肥出口或将分阶段进 行。第一阶段需要 10 月 15 日前报关，出口窗口期集中在 5-9 月；第二阶段 出口情况待定，根据第一阶段灵活调整。2、法检时间缩减，预计半月左右 时间。5 月中旬执行法检政策。3、2025 年磷肥出口配额总量比去年减少。 当前，磷肥的国内春耕已经结束，国内磷肥需求转入淡季，国内磷肥价格面 临一定的下行压力，我国化肥出口陆续开展，在淡季时拓宽化肥出口途径、 增加出口数量，能够进一步维持磷肥企业的盈利能力。 近年来磷肥的国际市场维持了有 ...

- The PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved an excess return of 1.15% in the CSI 500 stock pool, 0.29% in the CSI 800 stock pool, and -0.30% in the entire market stock pool[23][24] - The public research stock selection strategy achieved an excess return of 0.54% relative to the CSI 800, while the private research tracking strategy achieved an excess return of 2.61% relative to the CSI 800[25][26] - The block trading portfolio achieved an excess return of -0.61% relative to the CSI All Share Index[29][30] - The directed issuance portfolio achieved an excess return of 0.12% relative to the CSI All Share Index[35][36] - The momentum factor and growth factor achieved positive returns of 0.12% and 0.04% respectively, while the liquidity factor, beta factor, and size factor achieved significant negative returns of -0.56%, -0.52%, and -0.40% respectively[18][20] - In the CSI 500 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were gross profit margin TTM (1.65%), single-quarter ROA (1.40%), and single-quarter total asset gross profit margin (1.26%)[14][15] - In the liquidity 1500 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were 5-day average turnover rate (0.45%), 5-minute return skewness (0.36%), and downside volatility ratio (0.33%)[16][17] - In the CSI 500 stock pool, the worst-performing factors this week were single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate (-0.42%), 5-day reversal (-0.49%), and post-morning return factor (-0.64%)[14][15] - In the liquidity 1500 stock pool, the worst-performing factors this week were momentum spring factor (-1.07%), 5-day reversal (-1.11%), and single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate (-1.19%)[16][17] - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were net profit gap (1.30%), 5-day exponential moving average of trading volume (1.15%), and total asset gross profit margin TTM (1.02%)[12][13] - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the worst-performing factors this week were logarithmic market value factor (-1.02%), momentum spring factor (-1.12%), and post-morning return factor (-1.29%)[12][13] - The net asset growth rate factor performed well in the comprehensive industry, and the net profit growth rate factor performed well in the steel industry[21][22] - The BP factor performed well in the beauty and personal care industry, and the EP factor performed well in the coal industry[21][22]