Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is supported by import constraints and shipping inversions, with a focus on high dividend value [2][7] - Despite weak demand in the off-season, coal prices are expected to remain stable due to supply constraints and market dynamics [16][76] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, particularly those with strong cash flows and high dividend yields [7][78] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Port inventories have increased, leading to a slight decrease in port prices by 2 CNY/ton [16] - As of April 16, the capacity utilization rate in the main production areas has increased by 0.31 percentage points [16] - Daily coal consumption at coastal and inland power plants has decreased significantly, with coastal plants down by 18.4 thousand tons and inland plants down by 33.7 thousand tons [16][26] 2. Coking Coal - Production has slightly rebounded, with capacity utilization decreasing by 0.37 percentage points to 87.4% [41] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu port has decreased by 51 vehicles week-on-week [46] - Overall, coking coal inventories have continued to decline, with a reduction of 30.57 thousand tons this week [49] 3. Coke - The supply-demand situation for coke continues to improve, with production rates increasing due to better profitability [53] - The average daily iron output has slightly decreased after seven weeks of growth, but demand for coke remains strong [53][65] - Domestic coke prices have increased, with the price at Rizhao port rising by 50 CNY/ton [53] 4. Anthracite - The anthracite market remains stable, with prices holding steady despite fluctuations in demand [73] 5. Key Companies and Investment Logic - The report emphasizes the investment value of leading coal companies, highlighting their strong asset quality and cash flow [7][78] - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, among others [9][10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of ultra-long bonds in 2025 is estimated. The supply pressure is expected to be high in February, August - September, with a monthly issuance scale possibly exceeding 70 billion yuan. The supply of ultra-long bonds will affect the term spread of ultra-long bonds and the spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds. The term spread of ultra-long bonds may widen slightly, and the spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds is expected to narrow [7][20][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Ultra-long Bond Supply Estimation - Ultra-long general treasury bonds have a small supply and are expected to be issued concentratedly from January - April and November - December. The assumed issuance scale of subsequent single 30-year and 50-year general treasury bonds is 30 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan respectively [10] - Ultra-long special treasury bonds are expected to have high supply pressure in May, August - September. The total annual issuance is 1.3 trillion yuan. The assumed issuance scale of subsequent single 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year special treasury bonds is 5 - 6 billion yuan, 6 - 7 billion yuan, and 4 - 4.5 billion yuan respectively [12] - The proportion of ultra-long bonds in local special bonds has increased, and the issuance is expected to surge from August - September. The assumed proportion of ultra-long bonds remains at 69.2%. The monthly issuance scale may exceed 50 billion yuan [15] - Ultra-long local refinancing bonds are expected to be issued by June, with controllable supply pressure. The monthly issuance scale from May - June is estimated to be 14.98 billion yuan [17] 2. Impact on the Bond Market - As the issuance of ultra-long bonds increases, the term spread of ultra-long bonds may widen slightly. The impact of ultra-long bond supply on the term spread is asymmetric. When issuance is high, the term spread is supported but rarely widens significantly; when issuance is low, the term spread is significantly compressed [20] - The spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds is expected to narrow. When the supply of ultra-long treasury bonds is relatively large, the spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds tends to narrow, and vice versa [21]

证券分析师： 张建业 S0350524080005 zhangjy03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 陈沁一 S0350524100003 chenqy@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 矿产金量价齐升，资源优势持续向经济优势转化 ——山东黄金（600547）公司点评 最近一年走势 2025 年 04 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 山东黄金 | 15.9% | 28.8% | 1.4% | | 沪深 300 | -5.9% | -1.0% | 5.7% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/04/18 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 31.30 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 22.62-33.43 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 140,018.34 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 113,132.08 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 447,342.95 ...

2025 年 04 月 20 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 [Table_Title] 金属铬、原油、双酚 A 价格上涨， 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 重视芭田股份磷矿产能扩张 ——基础化工行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/04/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 基础化工 | -7.8% | -0.5% | 0.1% | | 沪深 300 | -5.9% | -1.0% | 5.7% | 相关报告 《铬盐行业点评之四：新疆沈宏进入破产重整，铬 盐行业集中度有望提升（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊， 董伯骏，陈云》——2025-04-02 《基础化工行业周报：双季戊四醇、有机硅价格上 涨，关注铬盐在军工领域的应用（推荐）*基础化 工*李永磊，董伯骏》——2025-03-24 《铬盐行业点评之三：国防支出持续增长，铬盐需 求有望高增（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊，董伯骏》 ——2025-03-13 《基础化工行业周报：铬盐迎来重大机遇，化 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][14]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows significant growth, with revenue reaching 1.172 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 39.15%, and a net profit of 343 million yuan, up 56.77% year-over-year [5][6]. - The growth is attributed to the recovery of the film market and an increase in the company's market share [6][9]. - The company continues to expand its cinema operations, with a steady increase in market share [7][10]. - The company has made breakthroughs in film investment and production, contributing to its strong performance [8][9]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.172 billion yuan and a net profit of 343 million yuan, with gross margin at 36.12% and net margin at 29.25% [5][9]. - The film market's total box office reached 24.388 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 49.1% increase year-over-year, with the Spring Festival box office hitting 9.51 billion yuan, up 18.7% [9]. Market Position - The company's direct cinema box office revenue was 883 million yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a 55.73% year-over-year increase, with a market share of 4.01% [10]. - The company opened 5 new direct cinemas and added 32 screens, maintaining a steady expansion of its cinema network [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.729 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 379 million yuan, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [12][13]. - The company has a robust pipeline of films for 2025, including titles like "Mermaid 2" and "7 Days," which are anticipated to contribute to future revenues [11].

2025 年 04 月 20 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 | S0350521080004 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 | S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | 联系人 | ： | 王鹏 | S0350125040009 | | wangp05@ghzq.com.cn | | | | | [Table_Title] 中航工业"十四五"规划攻坚全面启动 ——新材料产业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/04/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 基础化工 | -7.8% | -0.5% | 0.1% | | 沪深 300 | -5.9% | -1.0% | 5.7% | 相关报告 《基础化工行业周报：冰晶石、脂肪醇价格上涨， 重视芭田股份磷矿产能扩张（推荐）*基础化工*李 永磊，董伯骏》——2025-04- ...

其中，公司 2024Q4 实现营收 20.80 亿元，同比-0.7%，环比+4.9%；实 现归母净利润 0.28 亿元，同比-34.3%，环比+65.9%；ROE 为 1.88%， 同比下降 1.15 个百分点，环比增加 0.73 个百分点。销售毛利率 8.5%， 同比下降 2.1 个百分点，环比增加 1.5 个百分点；销售净利率 1.9%，同 比下降 0.2 个百分点，环比增加 1.1 个百分点。 投资要点: 2024 年公司实现稳健经营，出口量额齐升 | | 2025 | 年 月 04 | 日 20 | 公司研究 | 评级：买入(首次覆盖) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究所： 证券分析师： | | 李永磊 | S0350521080004 | [Table_Title] 营收稳步增长，出口量额齐增， | | | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | | | | 证券分析师： | | 董伯骏 | S0350521080009 | 加速完善全球农化流通服务网络 | | | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][15][49] Core Views - The company achieved a record high gross margin of 26.68% in Q1 2025, indicating strong profitability [7][10] - The company is recognized as a leading player in the specialty surfactants market, focusing on niche products and sustainable development [8][12] - The company reported a revenue of 2.333 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.17%, and a net profit of 398 million yuan, up 22.50% year-on-year [6][21] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 603 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.47%, and a net profit of 102 million yuan, up 15.77% year-on-year [7][10] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 26.68%, an increase of 2.46 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 16.87%, up 0.34 percentage points year-on-year [7][10] - For the full year 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 24.98%, a slight increase of 0.36 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 17.05%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points year-on-year [6][8] Growth Projections - The company expects revenues of 2.805 billion yuan in 2025, 3.144 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.564 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 501 million yuan, 571 million yuan, and 654 million yuan respectively [15][17][47] - The projected growth rates for revenue are 20% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 13% in 2027, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 26%, 14%, and 15% respectively [15][17][47] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading domestic manufacturer of specialty surfactants, with a production capacity of nearly 300,000 tons [12][11] - The company is actively expanding into strategic emerging industries, focusing on functional new materials and high-end electronic chemicals [12][11] - The company has exited the production of large-volume products and is concentrating on niche markets to enhance profitability [10][11]

2025 年 04 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：买入(上调) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘熹 S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 厚积薄发，国产算力的"寒武纪"时刻 ——寒武纪（688256）2024 年年报和 2025 年一 季报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 寒武纪 | | -10.7% | 13.1% | 346.1% | | 沪深 300 | | -5.9% | -1.0% | 5.7% | | 市场数据 | 2025/04/18 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 669.54 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 130.02-818.87 | | 总市值（百万） | 279,503.99 | | 流通市值（百万） | 279,503.99 | | 总股本（万股） | 41,745.68 | | 流通股本（万股） | 41,745.68 | | 日 ...

2025 年 04 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 证券分析师： 杨仁文 S0350521120001 yangrw@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 方博云 S0350521120002 fangby@ghzq.com.cn 2025Q1 业绩高增，储备内容逐步释放 ——华策影视（300133）2024 年&2025Q1 业绩点评 最近一年走势 研究所： | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 华策影视 | -14.4% | -0.2% | -2.2% | | 沪深 300 | -5.9% | -1.0% | 5.7% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/04/18 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 6.88 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 4.80-10.53 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 13,079.39 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 11,172.03 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 190,107.37 | | 流通股本 ...