本期 10 年期国债换手率明显回落、30Y 国债换手率回升，因此 30/10Y 国债换手率快速上升 87 个百分点，除此外，TL/T 多空比也回升 10 个百分点。上市公司理财买入量、商品比价分位值不同程度回落。当前拥挤度较高的指标包括 30/10Y 国债换手率。 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量上升至 7 个（占比 35%）、位于中性区间的指标数量仍为 6 个（占比 30%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量下降至 7 个（占比 35%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，30/10Y 国债换手率由偏冷区间 升至过热区间，全市场换手率、货币松紧预期均由中性区间升至过热区间，市场利差由偏冷区间升至过热区间，1/10Y 国债换手率则由过热区间降至中性区间。 分类别来看，①本期交易热度分位均值大幅回升 14 个百分点，其中 30/10Y 国债换手率分位值大幅回升 87 个百分点， TL/T 多空比分位值也上升 10 个百分点，不过 1/10Y 国债换手率回落 17 个百分点。②机构行为类中，基金久期、分歧 度分位值均回升 6 个百分点，上市公司理财买入量分位值回落 17 个百分点，带动机构行为分为均值小幅下降 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the chemical sector, with a focus on price increase opportunities, particularly in products like Kwang and H-acid [1] Core Insights - The chemical market has shown improvement as external disturbances ease, with solid-state batteries gaining attention. Current valuations in the sector provide a safety cushion, with historical PB at 18% and PE at 69% since 2010 [1] - Key developments include the signing of a cooperation agreement for Kazakhstan's first coal-to-gas project, the successful trial production of liquid methionine by New and Cheng in partnership with Sinopec, and the U.S. Department of Commerce granting licenses for ethane loading to certain energy companies [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Market Review - Brent crude futures averaged $68.36 per barrel, down $8.09 or -10.58% week-on-week, while WTI futures averaged $65.71 per barrel, down $8.53 or -11.48% [10] - The basic chemical sector outperformed the index with a 3.11% increase, while the petrochemical sector underperformed with a -2.07% decline [10][11] Recent Views from the Chemical Team - The tire industry shows mixed operating rates, with full steel tire operating rates at 65.6% and semi-steel tire rates at 78.1%. Domestic and international demand is recovering, with expectations for increased overseas market activity [29][30] - The dye market remains stable, with prices for disperse black ECT300% holding steady at 16.5 CNY/kg, while demand in the textile sector is weak [31] - The carbonate market is experiencing weak pricing, with prices for dimethyl carbonate at 3715 CNY/ton, down 75 CNY/ton or -1.98% [31] Key Chemical Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price changes in various chemical products, with the price of titanium dioxide averaging 13943 CNY/ton, down 1.04% week-on-week [31] - The market for vitamin E is experiencing a downward trend, with prices expected to drop to around 65 CNY/kg [32][33] Industry Developments - New and Cheng's liquid methionine project is progressing well, with trial production yielding qualified products [3] - The ethylene market is under pressure, with prices expected to remain weak due to limited demand and cautious purchasing behavior [36][39] Agricultural Chemicals - The market for acetamiprid is tight, with prices around 140,000 CNY/ton, while demand for high-efficiency insecticides remains stable [40] - The market for sweeteners like sucralose is experiencing a demand slump, with prices holding steady at 190,000-200,000 CNY/ton [42]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the telecommunications and AI-related sectors, indicating a "Buy" rating for industries expected to outperform the market by over 15% in the next 3-6 months [56]. Core Insights - Telecommunications revenue showed slight recovery in May, with a total of 748.8 billion yuan for the first five months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [1][4]. - Nvidia's market capitalization reached 3.77 trillion USD, becoming the world's largest company, driven by increasing demand for AI infrastructure [1][7]. - China Mobile announced a significant procurement project for G.654E optical fiber cables, with an estimated scale of 22,900 kilometers, indicating a tripling of demand compared to the previous procurement [1][10]. - The approval of two infrastructure REITs for data centers by the China Securities Regulatory Commission supports ongoing expansion in the data center sector [1][3]. Summary by Sections Telecommunications - The telecommunications sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with a reported revenue of 748.8 billion yuan for the first five months of 2025, up 1.4% year-on-year [4][19]. - The number of fixed broadband users reached 682 million, with gigabit users accounting for 32.7% [19]. Servers - The server index increased by 5.71% this week, with Nvidia's stock price rising 4.3% to 154.31 USD, reflecting strong market confidence in AI infrastructure investments [2][7]. - The global demand for AI computing power remains robust, with recommendations to focus on companies like Industrial Fulian, which are part of Nvidia's supply chain [2][7]. Optical Modules - The optical module index rose by 7.05% this week, driven by increased demand for 800G and 1.6T high-speed optical modules [2][9]. - The procurement of low-loss G.654E optical fibers by China Mobile is expected to boost demand for data center interconnect (DCI) solutions [1][10]. Data Centers (IDC) - The IDC index increased by 6.73% this week, with expectations of a surge in AI application demand in the second half of 2025 [3][13]. - The approval of REITs for data center projects indicates a strong financial backing for infrastructure expansion [3][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors driven by domestic AI development, such as servers and IDC, as well as those benefiting from international AI growth, including servers and optical modules [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI electronic cloth sector, particularly highlighting the potential of quartz cloth for AI servers due to its superior dielectric properties [2][14]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the increasing application of quartz cloth in AI servers, which is expected to meet the rising demands for dielectric performance [2][14]. - It discusses the acquisition of Merck's global surface solutions business by Global New Materials International, indicating a strategic move to enhance its market position and operational synergies [3][15]. - The report highlights the growing interest in the African market for construction materials, particularly focusing on the operational capabilities required for successful market entry [4][16]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The report notes the strengthening application expectations for quartz cloth in AI servers, citing its lower dielectric constant and loss compared to traditional electronic cloth [2][14]. Market Performance - The report provides insights into the performance of various materials, including cement, glass, and aluminum, indicating a mixed outlook with some sectors facing downward pressure while others show resilience [5][17]. National Subsidy Tracking - It mentions the planned distribution of 138 billion yuan in central funds for old-for-new replacements, which could benefit companies in the building materials sector [6][18]. Important Developments - Key developments include the opening of new factories by Keda Manufacturing in Africa and the acquisition of Merck's business by Global New Materials International, which are expected to enhance operational capabilities and market reach [7][20][21]. Economic Sentiment - The report assesses the economic sentiment across various sectors, noting that while some areas like AI materials maintain high demand, traditional sectors like cement and glass are experiencing pressure [22][23]. Price Changes in Building Materials - It details the price fluctuations in building materials, with cement prices showing a slight decline and glass prices remaining stable despite regional variations [36][49]. Export Statistics - The report includes export statistics for fiberglass products, indicating a decline in both volume and value, which may reflect broader market challenges [71].

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.06.23-2025.06.27）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2661.46 点(周环比+0.80%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3921.76 点（周环比+1.95%），深证综指收于 2052.56 点（周环比+4.24%），上证综指收于 3424.23 点（周环比+1.91%），科 创板收于 988.21 点（周环比+3.17%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 牧业： 截至 6 月 28 日，我国主产省集贸市场活牛价格 26.52 元/公斤，环比-0.48%，目前为动物蛋白消费淡季，牛肉价格保 持震荡状态；奶牛方面截至 6 月 20 日主产区合同内外平均收购价为 3.04 元/公斤，环比-0.3%，同比-7.88%，奶价下 跌幅度持续放缓，散奶价在 2.3 元出场附近止稳。我们预计随着供给端产能去化的逐步传导，原奶价格在 25H2 有望 企稳回升；肉牛方面近期犊牛与活牛价格已经出现上涨，预计新一轮肉牛周期有望开启，板块景气度有望拐点向上。 种植链： 近期小麦启动最低收购价预案，对小麦价格存在较强底部支撑，同时玉米端下游库存持续消化，玉米价格出现小幅反 弹。在外部环境不 ...

截至 6 月 27 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 2.18 年、3.39 年，均处于 2021 年 3 月以来 90%以上分位数水 平，商业银行债中 ，二级资本债、银行永续债以及一般商金债加权平均成交期限分别为 4.21 年、3.54 年、2.07 年， 其中一般商金债处于较低历史水平；从其余金融债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公司债久期分 别为 1.54 年、2.28 年、3.18 年、1.45 年，其中证券公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位，租赁公司债位于较高历 史分位。 城投债：城投债加权平均成交期限徘徊在 2.18 年附近。其中，陕西省级城投债久期超 8 年，福建区县级城投债成交 久期缩短至 1.24 年附近。同时，广东地级市、福建地级市、河北地级市、山西省级等区域城投债久期历史分位数已 逾 90%，湖南省级、河南地级市城投债久期逼近 2021 年以来最高。 产业债：产业债加权平均成交期限较上周有所拉长，总体处于 3.39 年附近，钢铁行业成交久期缩短至 1.66 年，食品 饮料行业成交久期拉长至 2.31 年。此外，房地产行业成交久期处于较低历史分位，公用事业、交通运输、商贸 ...

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a strong hold on high-conviction new consumption leaders, focusing on themes such as emotional consumption, functional value, channel transformation, and brand expansion abroad [2][8] Core Insights - The new consumption sector is expected to see a rise, with a focus on both established leaders and traditional companies adopting new consumption strategies [2][8] - The report suggests that Q3 will present structural opportunities, while Q4 is anticipated to see leading companies reaching new highs [2][8] - The light industry manufacturing sector is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in new tobacco products and the home goods market [3][16] - The textile and apparel industry is advised to focus on differentiated companies with high growth potential [5][20] - The beauty and personal care sector remains robust, with recommendations for high-value stocks [5][21] - The home appliance sector shows strong performance in sales, particularly during the 618 shopping festival [5][22][23] - The retail sector is experiencing a shift, with online sales stabilizing and offline stores undergoing significant transformations [5][24][25] Summary by Sections New Consumption - Focus on holding high-conviction new consumption leaders and exploring traditional companies with new consumption mindsets [2][8] - Q3 is seen as a period for structural opportunities, while Q4 may bring valuation shifts for leading companies [2][8] Light Industry Manufacturing - New tobacco products are on an upward trend, with significant market expansion expected [3][16] - The home goods market is stabilizing, with a focus on companies showing signs of recovery [3][16] Textile and Apparel - The sector is advised to prioritize companies with unique advantages and high growth potential [5][20] Beauty and Personal Care - The sector remains high in demand, with recommendations for companies showing strong performance and recovery potential [5][21] Home Appliances - The sector has shown excellent sales performance, particularly during promotional events, with a notable increase in production [5][22][23] Retail Sector - The online retail landscape is stabilizing, with significant changes in offline retail strategies [5][24][25]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on sectors with strong growth certainty in the first half of the year, particularly AI-PCB, computing hardware, semiconductor self-sufficiency, the Apple supply chain, and AI-driven industries [4][34]. Core Insights - The upcoming release of Grok 4 is anticipated to exceed expectations for Q2 performance, with significant advancements expected in code generation and understanding [1]. - The rapid development of ASIC chips by companies like Google, Amazon, and Meta is expected to drive strong demand for AI-PCB, with a projected increase in the number of ASIC chips exceeding 7 million by 2026 [1]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a robust upward trend, with specific segments such as storage chips and AI-PCB showing promising growth [4][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report highlights the strong performance of AI-PCB companies, with many experiencing full production and sales, leading to high growth expectations for Q2 and Q3 [1][4]. - The semiconductor materials and components sectors are also expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for AI-related products [4][22]. 2. Key Segments 2.1 Consumer Electronics - Xiaomi has launched its first AI glasses, with various pricing tiers, indicating a growing market for AI-integrated consumer products [5][6]. 2.2 PCB - The PCB industry is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by demand from home appliances, automotive, and consumer electronics, with expectations for substantial growth in Q2 [8]. 2.3 Components - The demand for components such as MLCCs and inductors is expected to rise due to upgrades in AI devices, with a notable increase in usage and pricing [20]. 2.4 IC Design - The storage segment is projected to see price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand from cloud computing and consumer electronics [22][25]. 2.5 Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic production and self-sufficiency due to geopolitical factors [26][30]. 3. Company Focus - Companies such as 生益科技, 胜宏科技, and others are highlighted as key beneficiaries of the AI-PCB and computing hardware demand [34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers like 北方华创 and 中微公司 in the context of increasing self-sufficiency [37][40].

Group 1: Core Views - The report highlights a new cycle in the market, indicating that China and the US are in mirrored economic cycles, with China lacking capital returns while the US sacrifices government credit [3][9][10] - The expectation is that high interest rates will have limited impact on private and household sectors overseas, and that a global shift from virtual to real manufacturing will begin, benefiting China's economy through increased physical consumption [3][10] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Short-term investment opportunities in China are constrained by risks associated with dollar repatriation and weakening volume and price dynamics, but preparations for a shift towards real economy investments in the second half of the year are advised [4][11] - The focus for Chinese investors should be on increasing volume across various sectors, with particular attention to physical assets like oil and copper as manufacturing activities resume [4][11] Group 3: Sector Recommendations - **Wind Power Equipment**: Daikin Heavy Industry is recommended due to the upward trend in European offshore wind market, with expectations for continued performance and order fulfillment [14] - **Engineering Machinery**: Hengli Hydraulic is favored as domestic excavator industry recovers, with potential growth in humanoid robot components [15] - **Defense Electronics**: Aerospace Electric is positioned as a leader in military connectors, benefiting from high demand in defense sectors [16] - **Commercial Vehicles**: China National Heavy Duty Truck is expected to benefit from recovering demand in heavy truck sector and improving profitability [17] - **Agricultural Chemicals**: Yangnong Chemical is at a cyclical turning point with potential for growth supported by capital expenditures [18] - **Non-Bank Financials**: China Taiping is recommended due to its low valuation and potential for profit growth driven by insurance transformation [19] - **Food and Beverage**: Yanjinpuzi is highlighted for its strong growth in konjac products and multi-channel expansion [20] - **Retail**: Meituan is expected to maintain its leading position in food delivery, with growth potential in instant retail and international expansion [21] - **Light Manufacturing**: Smoore International is positioned to benefit from the expanding legal vaping market in Europe and the US [23] - **Telecommunications**: China Unicom is recommended due to its leading investment in AI computing and growth in IDC and cloud services [25]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting a potential recovery in the market with a recommendation to accumulate real estate stocks on dips [6]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector saw a weekly increase of +3.1%, ranking 17th among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector increased by +3.9%, ranking 4th [3][19]. - The land market's premium rate has rebounded, with an average premium rate of 9% for the week ending June 27, 2025, despite a year-on-year decrease in land transaction volume [3][30]. - New housing sales in 47 cities totaled 523 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +39% but a year-on-year decrease of -14% [4][35]. - Guangzhou is promoting prefabricated buildings, mandating that 100% of residential land sold from 2026 onwards will implement this construction method, which may transform the real estate and construction industries [6][17]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Overview - The report highlights a recovery in the real estate market, with significant increases in both new and second-hand housing transactions across various city tiers [4][43]. - The premium rates for land transactions have shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [3][30]. Land Transactions - In the week of June 21-27, 2025, 923 million square meters of residential land were transacted across 300 cities, with a year-on-year decrease of -33% [30]. - The top five companies in terms of land acquisition amount are Poly Developments, Greentown China, China Overseas Development, Jianfa Real Estate, and Binjiang Group, with acquisition amounts of 414 billion, 395 billion, 386 billion, 329 billion, and 313 billion respectively [30][31]. New Housing Sales - New housing sales in 47 cities reached 523 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of +39% and a year-on-year decrease of -14% [4][35]. - The performance varied by city tier, with first-tier cities showing a week-on-week increase of +81% [4][35]. Second-Hand Housing Sales - Second-hand housing transactions totaled 264 million square meters in 22 cities, with a week-on-week increase of +1% and a year-on-year decrease of -2% [43][44]. - First-tier cities experienced a week-on-week increase of +2%, while second-tier cities saw a +1% increase [43][44]. Policy and Market Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in supporting the real estate market, particularly in Shanghai, where the release of quality land parcels is seen as a positive signal for market recovery [5][13]. - The promotion of prefabricated buildings in Guangzhou is expected to enhance construction efficiency and sustainability, potentially benefiting developers who adopt these practices [6][17].