主要结论 公募基础设施REITs周报 口 二级市场表现 结合国金金融产品REITs加权价格指数及其他大类资产的周度涨跌来看，本周（2025/10/20~2025/10/24）RETs加权指数上涨0.09%，收于97.53 点：中证全指上涨3.36%，中证转债上涨1.47%，中债净价指数下跌0.04%，伦敦金现下跌2.94%，原油品种加权上涨6.72%：本周各大类资产收益表 现由高到低排序依次为：原油>股票>转债>REITs>纯债>黄金。 ロ 一级市场跟踪 截止2025年10月24日，仍在交易所受理阶段的REITs产品共有9只，处于审批通过待上市的REITs共有3只。 风险提示：政策调整风险、项目运营风险、流动性风险、估值波动风险、基金治理风险。 注：基金相关信息及数据仅作为基金研究使用，不作为募集材料或者宣传材料；本文涉及所有基金历史业绩均不代表未来表现。 二级市场价量表现 从RETs寺有的底层资产项目性质来看，本周产权类下跌0.04%至110.64、特许经营权类上涨0.42%至82.60。从持有项目的行业类型来看，本周产 亚团区类下跌0.16%至88.43、仓储物流类上涨0.36%至101.52、生态还保类 ...

Group 1: Quantitative Credit Strategy - The recent medium to long-term strategies have shown strong cumulative returns, with perpetual bond duration, secondary bond bullet-type, and secondary bond duration strategies achieving cumulative excess returns of 13bp, 11.2bp, and 11.1bp respectively [2][12] - The secondary bond duration strategy has rebounded significantly, but its volatility is much higher than that of the downshift strategy, which has a cumulative return of 9.2bp, demonstrating both low volatility and strong recovery advantages [2][12] Group 2: ETF Trends - From October 13 to October 17, bond ETFs experienced a net outflow of 13.36 billion yuan, with credit bond ETFs, interest rate bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs seeing net outflows of 7.46 billion yuan, 4.96 billion yuan, and 0.94 billion yuan respectively [3][16] - In terms of performance, credit bond ETFs, interest rate bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs had weekly net value changes of +0.11%, +0.32%, and -1.77% respectively, indicating a significant pullback in convertible bond ETFs while credit and interest rate bond ETFs showed marginal recovery [3][16] Group 3: Yield Heatmap of Coupon Assets - As of October 20, 2025, the yields of non-financial and non-real estate corporate bonds have mostly declined, particularly for public offerings of private enterprises within one year [4][19] - The yields of financial bonds have generally decreased, with bank subordinated bonds performing well, especially the yields of 3-5 year perpetual bonds from state-owned banks and city commercial banks dropping by over 4.5bp [4][19] Group 4: Long-term Credit Bond Tracking - The number of transactions for long-term credit bonds has not increased significantly, with a total of 276 transactions for bonds with a duration of 7 years or more during the week of October 13 to October 17, indicating ongoing concerns about duration risk in the market [5][21] - The improvement in transaction numbers is more concentrated in secondary capital bonds and interest rate bonds, suggesting a cautious market sentiment towards long-term credit bonds [5][21] Group 5: Local Government Bond Supply and Trading - During the week of October 13 to October 17, 7-10 year local government bonds outperformed the same duration national and credit bonds, with indices for these bonds rising by 0.32% and 0.58% respectively [6][25] - The performance of bonds with a duration of over 10 years was weaker compared to national bonds, which saw a weekly increase of over 1% [6][25]

Market Overview - The current real estate market shows new homes with prices but low volume, while second-hand homes are trading price for volume[2] - Total transaction area for new and second-hand homes dropped from 1.93 billion square meters in 2021 to 1.5 billion square meters in 2022, stabilizing around 1.5 billion square meters in 2023 and 2024, with a forecast to maintain this level in 2025[2][18] New Home Market Dynamics - New home sales area is projected to decline from 1.57 billion square meters in 2021 to 810 million square meters in 2024, and further to 750 million square meters in 2025[18] - The pressure on new home sales is attributed to the rapid iteration of "good houses" leading to buyer hesitation and insufficient quality supply in core areas[2][26] Second-Hand Home Market Trends - The second-hand home market is experiencing a significant imbalance in supply and demand, with a 17.1% year-on-year increase in transaction area from January to September 2023, and a 29.7% increase in September alone[12] - Second-hand home prices have been under pressure, with a 0.7% month-on-month decline in September, marking the 41st consecutive month of price drops[12] Indicators for Market Stabilization - The proportion of second-hand home transactions is expected to approach or exceed Japan's steady state range of 60%-63% in 18 sample cities by mid-2024, indicating potential stabilization in new home sales volume[3][48] - The national rental yield is currently at 2.37%, which is slightly below the reasonable level of 2.4%-2.8%, suggesting room for price stabilization in the second-hand market[62] Economic and Policy Considerations - The stabilization of the real estate market is influenced by macroeconomic conditions and social expectations, with expectations for increased policy support in 2024[4] - The transition from old to new economic drivers is expected to create a new group of buyers, which could support the real estate market[4] Risks and Variability - The pace of market stabilization may vary across different cities and property types, with new home volume stabilizing before second-hand home prices[5] - Risks include slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery and potential bottlenecks in new home supply[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Views - The company reported steady revenue growth, with Q1-Q3 2025 revenue increasing by 6.56% year-on-year to 2.706 billion RMB, and net profit rising by 1.43% to 309 million RMB [2]. - The company's plastic flexible packaging film business is expected to be the main contributor to revenue growth, aligning with the trend towards environmentally friendly packaging materials [2][4]. - The gross margin slightly increased in Q3 2025, driven by resilient downstream demand and a decrease in crude oil prices [3]. - The company has a strong dividend payout history, maintaining a payout ratio above 80%, and is expected to continue high dividends due to stable performance from ongoing projects [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 960 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.02%, and a net profit of 126 million RMB, up 1.00% [2]. - The company’s revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2025 were 2.706 billion RMB and 309 million RMB, reflecting growth rates of 6.56% and 1.43% respectively [2]. Operational Analysis - The company’s main business, color printing composite packaging materials, is expected to maintain stable growth, supported by resilient demand in downstream sectors [2]. - The company is actively developing environmentally friendly packaging materials, which is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth in Q3 2025 [2][4]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 22.33%, with a slight increase to 24.44% in Q3 2025, while the net profit margin was 11.50% [3]. - The company’s projected revenue for 2025-2027 is 3.784 billion RMB, 4.208 billion RMB, and 4.647 billion RMB, with respective growth rates of 7.33%, 11.19%, and 10.44% [5][10]. Future Outlook - The company is set to launch new production capacities in 2026, which will provide additional revenue streams [4]. - The company is also exploring new consumer segments, such as pet food, which is expected to enhance growth opportunities [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 31.66 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.25 billion yuan, up 26.8% year-on-year [2]. - The company's core business in industrial automation is stable, while the electric vehicle segment shows high growth potential. Strategic expansions into new product categories, international markets, digitalization, energy management, and embodied intelligence are expected to continue driving growth [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%, with a net profit of 1.29 billion yuan, up 4.0% year-on-year. The slight underperformance was attributed to increased R&D expenses and asset impairments [2]. Operational Analysis - **General Automation**: Revenue for the first three quarters reached 13.1 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue of 4.3 billion yuan, a 26% increase. The company is capitalizing on demand from logistics, semiconductors, and lithium battery sectors, with a focus on expanding overseas and in process industries [3]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The subsidiary achieved a revenue of 14.53 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 35.5% increase year-on-year. However, Q3 profits declined by 15.6% due to rising sales, management, and R&D expenses. The company anticipates profit margins to improve as new projects ramp up production [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.47 billion yuan, 6.66 billion yuan, and 8.00 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 22%, and 20%. The current price corresponds to P/E ratios of 39, 32, and 27 for the respective years [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 45 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.7% to 2.82 billion yuan [2]. - The third quarter saw a revenue of 16.8 billion yuan, up 36% year-on-year and 9.5% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.21 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.1% increase year-on-year and a significant 140% increase quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company is expected to achieve a total battery shipment of 120-130 GWh in 2025, with 50 GWh from power batteries and 70-80 GWh from energy storage batteries, driven by price increases and improved product structure [4]. Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company's gross margin was 13.7%, down 5.3 percentage points year-on-year and 3.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to a rebate policy that reduced revenue by 530 million yuan [3]. - The company’s operating expenses were 9.5% of revenue, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year and 5.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with stock option expenses of approximately 250 million yuan [3]. - The shipment of power batteries reached 34.59 GWh in the first three quarters, a 66.98% increase year-on-year, while energy storage battery shipments were 48.41 GWh, up 35.51% year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue improving profitability in energy storage, with anticipated price increases and optimized product and customer structure [4]. - The report forecasts net profits for the company to be 4.35 billion yuan in 2025, 7.87 billion yuan in 2026, and 10.2 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.299 billion yuan for H1 FY2026, a decrease of 5.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 789 million yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year. The interim dividend declared is 0.13 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 102% [2]. - The consumer environment has impacted sales, but channel optimization and overall growth have mitigated some pressure. The main brands (Nike and Adidas) saw revenue declines of 4.8% and 12.2%, respectively [2]. - The company continues to optimize its store strategy, reducing the number of direct stores to 4,688, a net decrease of 332 stores, while increasing same-store sales area by 6.5% year-on-year [2]. - The user base has grown to 89.1 million, with member sales contributing 92.9% of total sales, and repeat members accounting for about 60% of member consumption [2]. - Online sales have seen double-digit growth, effectively offsetting the decline in offline traffic [2]. Financial Performance - The gross margin for H1 was 41.0%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, supported by retail business contributions and brand support from Nike and Adidas [3]. - The company has maintained stable sales and management expense ratios, reflecting prudent cost control and flexibility from its omnichannel retail strategy [3]. - Inventory turnover days increased to 150 days, up by 2 days year-on-year, indicating a healthy inventory level [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects stable performance for the full year, with guidance for an increase in net profit margin. Focus will remain on omnichannel retail and operational efficiency improvements [3]. - The recovery of Nike's sales in FY26 Q1 exceeded expectations, suggesting potential for a rebound in the main brand's business [3]. - New brand expansions into running and outdoor segments, including brands like nordaTM and Norrøna, are anticipated to inject new growth momentum [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 are projected at 0.21, 0.24, and 0.28 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for companies transitioning to AI data centers, highlighting the potential for significant revenue growth in this sector [4]. Core Insights - The majority of cryptocurrency mining companies are transitioning to AI cloud services and data center operations due to increasing Bitcoin mining difficulty and rising electricity demand driven by AI [10][11]. - Many companies have secured substantial AI contracts and have clear plans for expanding their computing power, indicating a strong market opportunity [17][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Transition of Cryptocurrency Mining Companies - Cryptocurrency mining companies are beginning to pivot towards AI cloud services and data centers, driven by the need for updated mining equipment and the increasing demand for electricity [10][11]. - The U.S. Department of Energy projects a need for an additional 100GW of peak electricity supply by 2030, with 50GW directly for data centers, positioning mining companies favorably for this transition [10]. 2. Companies with AI Contracts and Expansion Plans - **Core Scientific**: Early mover in AI data center transition, signed a 12-year contract with CoreWeave for 590MW of HPC hosting, with a present value of approximately $37.2 billion to $50 billion [3][19]. - **TeraWulf**: Secured a 10-year data center lease with Core42 for 72.5MW, with potential revenue of $1.09 billion in the first year [27][28]. - **Iris Energy**: Plans to deploy 23,000 GPUs by Q1 2026, projecting an annual revenue run rate of approximately $500 million [34][40]. - **Hut 8**: Focused on power generation and AI, with a 5-year agreement for 310MW of power, expected to generate annual revenue of about $4.3 million [44][45]. - **WhiteFiber**: A subsidiary of Bit Digital, has contracts for over 4,998 GPUs, with an annual recurring revenue exceeding $9.14 million [47][48]. - **Hive Digital**: Balancing both Bitcoin mining and AI data center operations, with expected annual revenue from AI services of $100 million by 2026 [51]. - **Galaxy Digital**: Entered the AI data center space with a 15-year contract with CoreWeave, projected to generate over $1 billion in annual revenue [3][4]. - **Cipher Mining**: Partnered with Fluidstack for AI data center operations, with a contract value ranging from $1.5 million to $5.5 million [3][4]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are aggressively transitioning to AI data centers, have clear expansion plans, and are trading at a discount relative to their market value [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.25 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with gross profit rising by 9.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items was 120 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 17.5% year-on-year [2] - The software and IT solutions segment generated revenue of 860 million RMB in Q3, up 9.9% year-on-year, while the digital operations segment saw revenue decline by 4.2% to 400 million RMB. The smart customer service and consumer finance marketing business grew by 11.2% to 250 million RMB, whereas the intelligent operations and services segment fell by 22.1% to 150 million RMB [3] - The company has established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hong Kong to create a cross-border technology collaboration platform, targeting diverse clients in banking, securities, and funds. It has signed cooperation agreements with several overseas institutions to accelerate its international expansion strategy [3] Summary by Sections Performance Review - Q3 2025 revenue: 1.25 billion RMB, up 5.0% YoY - Gross profit: increased by 9.8% - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 120 million RMB, up 17.5% YoY [2] Business Analysis - Software and IT solutions revenue: 860 million RMB, up 9.9% YoY - Digital operations revenue: 400 million RMB, down 4.2% - Smart customer service revenue: 250 million RMB, up 11.2% - Intelligent operations revenue: 150 million RMB, down 22.1% - Sales expenses decreased by 16.4%, while management expenses increased by 7.9% [3] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Projected revenues for 2025-2027: 4.87 billion RMB, 5.21 billion RMB, and 5.65 billion RMB, with growth rates of 5.0%, 7.1%, and 8.3% respectively - Projected net profits for the same period: 340 million RMB, 400 million RMB, and 460 million RMB, with growth rates of 9.9%, 17.0%, and 14.6% respectively - Corresponding PE ratios: 37.9, 32.3, and 28.2 [4]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" due to the expectation of an increase in natural gas prices in the event of a cold winter, which is anticipated to exceed the market average by more than 15% in the next 3-6 months [5]. Core Insights - The probability of the La Niña phenomenon occurring has risen to over 75%, which may lead to significant temperature fluctuations during the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere [2][3]. - Current European natural gas inventory levels are at a median level, and a cold winter could drive up natural gas prices in Asia and Europe, presenting investment opportunities in upstream natural gas production [5]. - Long-term trends indicate that the global LNG market supply and demand will gradually become more balanced, leading to a potential decline in gas prices in Asia and Europe, which could enhance the profitability of downstream natural gas sales [4][5]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - The NOAA Climate Prediction Center reported a greater than 75% probability of La Niña occurring from October to December 2025, with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central Pacific remaining around -0.5 degrees, confirming La Niña indicators [1][2]. Industry Analysis - The onset of La Niña is expected to result in colder winters in the Northern Hemisphere, although other factors may influence this outcome. The average temperature across the Eurasian continent is predicted to be higher than historical averages, despite potential cold snaps due to La Niña [2]. - In mid-October, northern China experienced a significant temperature drop, leading to increased coal consumption in power generation. The average daily coal consumption rose by 12.5% week-on-week during this period [3]. - The EU's natural gas inventory is at 83.09% capacity, down 13.05% from the previous year, indicating a potential risk of price increases if a cold winter occurs [3]. Long-term LNG Supply and Demand - From 2025 to 2029, global LNG liquefaction capacity is expected to grow rapidly, particularly in North America, where export capacity is projected to increase by approximately 152% [4]. - The balance of supply and demand in the LNG market is expected to improve, leading to a narrowing of the price gap between Asian, European, and North American natural gas markets [4]. Investment Recommendations - Given the increased likelihood of La Niña and its potential impact on winter temperatures, investors are advised to focus on upstream natural gas production companies. Additionally, as the LNG market stabilizes, downstream natural gas sales may benefit from improved price margins [5].