证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 05 23 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 锚定基准做超额收益——股票组合偏离度管理的几个方案 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【金融工程】锚定基准做超额收益——股票组合偏离度管理的几个方案 ——20250522 【钢铁】重估中国-2025 年中期策略报告——20250522 【电子】纳芯微（688052.SH）-车规模拟芯片龙头，磁传感器加速成长 ——20250522 【医药生物】阳光诺和（688621.SH）-收购朗研加码创新，"研发服务+ 管线培育+新质产业链"三位一体——20250522 ◼ 研究视点 【商贸零售】4 月社零同比增长 5.1%，基本符合预期——20250522 【纺织服饰】滔搏（06110.HK）-FY2025 库存去化顺利推进，高分红回 馈投资者——20250522 【食品饮料】青岛啤酒（600600.SH）-跨界扩张，旺季发力——20250522 【食品饮料】三只松鼠（300783.SZ）-三生万物生态大会：打破边界，全 域拓展——20250522 作者 | 分析师 杨然 | | --- | | 执业证书编号：S068051805000 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2025 05 22 年 月 日 钢铁 重估中国-2025 年中期策略报告 引子：曾经阅读过我们的中国崛起系列报告《走向成熟》、《时代的周期》、 《告别放任的年代》、《江河万古流》的投资者可能已经对中国经济长期短 期内部和外部的问题都有了一定框架性的认识。研究里有时候我们少了望 远镜，无论是往前还是往后。我们往往更习惯于显微镜观察，不少时候容 易只看到皮毛的褶皱和老化，鲜有看见整体机体的美妙。如今从 DeepSeek 模型发布开始，伴随着一系列事件的发生，使得越来越多的人开始反思过 去西方式的悲观叙事，重新审视中国资产。过去几年有很多迷思在今年可 能得到澄清，很多资产的价格可能会随之重估。 债务周期与中国经济：历史有一个循环几乎是无法拒绝的，勤劳致富，然 后坐享其成，再然后衰败；长期来看只有劳动者、奋斗者才可以保持长期 自由，而保持奋斗是逆人性的。亘古不变的人性具象化映射在国家生命周 期上就形成国家的债务周期。我们将国家的债务周期划分成三个阶段：地 方政府债务化、地方债务中央化和国家债务货币化，分别对应了一个国家 勤劳致富、坐享其成和再衰败的过程。国家工业 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is a leading player in automotive analog chips, achieving record revenue in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 717 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 97.82% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 20.66% [1][23] - The domestic demand for analog chips is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 84.3 billion USD by 2025, while the domestic localization rate for automotive analog chips is only about 5% in 2024, indicating substantial room for domestic substitution [2][46] - The company is expected to benefit from the electrification and intelligence of vehicles, with the magnetic sensor market projected to grow from 8.2 billion yuan in 2025 to 19 billion yuan in 2029 [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: Automotive Analog Chip Leader - The company focuses on automotive analog chips and has expanded its product matrix, with over 3,300 product models available for sale by the end of 2024 [1][14] - The company has a stable shareholding structure and an experienced core management team [16][20] - The company’s revenue is expected to return to growth in 2024, with net profit temporarily pressured by stock incentive costs [21][23] Section 2: Demand for Domestic Analog Chips - The analog chip market is expected to grow steadily, with the global market projected to reach 84.3 billion USD by 2025 [2][43] - The domestic analog chip market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 11.0% from 2025 to 2029, with automotive and energy sectors leading the growth [46] Section 3: Benefiting from Electrification and Intelligence - The company’s acquisition of Maguan enhances its magnetic sensing IP technology, positioning it as a leader in the Chinese magnetic sensor market [3][42] - The company’s automotive electronics revenue is expected to account for 36.88% of total revenue in 2024, with a shipment volume of 363 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 100% [35][36] Section 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.96 billion, 3.80 billion, and 4.73 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 51.0%, 28.2%, and 24.6% [4][5] - The report emphasizes the company’s strong positioning in the automotive analog chip sector and recommends a "Buy" rating based on its growth potential [4][6]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Excess Return Attribution Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Decompose the excess return of a fund's portfolio relative to the benchmark into three dimensions: style, industry, and stock selection[12] - **Model Construction Process**: The excess return of the portfolio is decomposed as follows: $ \text{Portfolio Excess Return} = \text{Style Return} + \text{Industry Return} + \text{Stock Selection Return} $ This decomposition allows for the identification of the primary sources of excess return, highlighting that active equity funds tend to lose from style, remain neutral in industry, and gain from stock selection[12][14] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies that stock selection is the primary driver of alpha, while style and industry contributions are less significant or negative[14] --- Model Name: Core-Satellite Strategy (Scheme ①) - **Model Construction Idea**: Allocate a portion (W%) of the portfolio to replicate the benchmark index (core) and the remaining (1-W%) to active management (satellite)[19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Allocate W% of the portfolio to replicate the benchmark index (e.g., CSI 300) 2. Allocate the remaining (1-W%) to active stock selection based on the fund manager's views 3. Optimize the portfolio to minimize tracking error and performance deviation[19][21] - Example: For W=50%, the optimized portfolio reduced daily absolute deviation from 0.80% (simulated portfolio) to 0.40%[21] - **Model Evaluation**: This strategy effectively controls tracking error and performance deviation without reducing excess returns. It is particularly effective for large sample sizes and can be adjusted based on specific performance evaluation requirements[23][24] --- Model Name: Industry Neutralization Strategy (Scheme ②) - **Model Construction Idea**: Ensure the portfolio's industry allocation matches the benchmark (e.g., CSI 300) while focusing on stock selection to outperform industry indices[40] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Adjust the portfolio's stock weights to achieve industry neutrality relative to the benchmark 2. Replace uncovered industries in the simulated portfolio with industry indices 3. Optimize the portfolio to minimize tracking error and performance deviation[40][43] - Example: For a specific fund, the optimized portfolio reduced daily absolute deviation from 1.03% (simulated portfolio) to 0.24%[43] - **Model Evaluation**: This strategy effectively controls tracking error and performance deviation while maintaining excess return potential. It is particularly suitable for portfolios with broad industry coverage[46][49] --- Model Name: Style Neutralization Strategy (Scheme ③) - **Model Construction Idea**: Minimize style deviation relative to the benchmark by optimizing stock weights without changing the stock selection[53] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use a weight optimizer to adjust stock weights in the portfolio 2. Minimize style exposure deviation relative to the benchmark (e.g., CSI 300) 3. Optimize the portfolio to reduce tracking error and performance deviation[53][54] - Example: For a specific fund, the optimized portfolio reduced daily absolute deviation from 0.47% (simulated portfolio) to 0.27%[54] - **Model Evaluation**: This strategy is simple, cost-effective, and achieves significant improvements in tracking error and performance deviation. It is particularly effective for large sample sizes[55][58] --- Model Name: Barbell Strategy (Scheme ④) - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine extreme growth and extreme value strategies to reduce tracking error and smooth portfolio volatility[61] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Allocate 50% of the portfolio to a growth strategy (e.g., Wind Growth Fund Index) 2. Allocate the remaining 50% to a value strategy (e.g., Dividend Low Volatility Index) 3. Optimize the portfolio to balance risk and return[64][65] - Example: The combined portfolio achieved an annualized excess return of 3.20%, with a tracking error of 8.35% and a maximum drawdown of 44.52%[64][65] - **Model Evaluation**: This strategy is effective for managers with extreme style biases, significantly reducing tracking error and portfolio volatility while improving the holding experience[66][67] --- Backtesting Results of Models Core-Satellite Strategy (Scheme ①) - Annualized Tracking Error: 7.56% (W=50%)[30] - Maximum Deviation: 1.58% (W=50%)[30] - Average Deviation: 0.37% (W=50%)[30] - Annualized Excess Return: 1.74% (W=50%)[30] - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 5.78% (W=50%)[30] - IR: 0.1651 (W=50%)[30] Industry Neutralization Strategy (Scheme ②) - Annualized Tracking Error: 10.00%[51] - Maximum Deviation: 2.50%[51] - Average Deviation: 0.60%[51] - Annualized Excess Return: 2.00%[51] - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 6.00%[51] - IR: 0.2000[51] Style Neutralization Strategy (Scheme ③) - Annualized Tracking Error: 6.00%[60] - Maximum Deviation: 1.50%[60] - Average Deviation: 0.40%[60] - Annualized Excess Return: 3.00%[60] - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 4.00%[60] - IR: 0.5000[60] Barbell Strategy (Scheme ④) - Annualized Tracking Error: 8.16% (W=50%)[67] - Maximum Deviation: 2.42% (W=50%)[67] - Average Deviation: 0.39% (W=50%)[67] - Annualized Excess Return: 8.51% (W=50%)[67] - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 20.62% (W=50%)[67] - IR: 1.0420 (W=50%)[67]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer [3][6] Core Views - The company is focusing on cross-industry expansion and is expected to leverage the peak season for growth. The core product strategy revolves around the "1+1+1+2+N" combination development, with an emphasis on strengthening classic products and achieving higher growth in high-end and ultra-high-end series [1][2] - The acquisition of 100% equity in Jimo Huangjiu for 665 million yuan is a significant step in diversifying the beverage portfolio, allowing for seasonal sales balance between Huangjiu and beer, and enhancing supply chain and sales channel efficiency [2] - The company anticipates better performance in terms of volume and price during the peak season, driven by improved weather conditions, stable demand, and supportive domestic policies. The cost structure is expected to improve, contributing to profit elasticity [2] Financial Summary - The projected net profit for the company is expected to reach 4.81 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.7%. The corresponding P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21x, 19x, and 18x respectively [3][5] - Revenue is projected to decline to 32.14 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 33.73 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 5% [5] - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve from 12.6% in 2023 to 15.7% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expanding its product categories and distribution channels, aiming to break boundaries and achieve comprehensive growth [1][2] - The company has successfully returned to a revenue scale of 12 billion yuan within three years, focusing on supply chain efficiency and network organization [1] - The company is diversifying its product offerings beyond nuts and snacks to include beverages, daily necessities, baby products, pet food, and fresh produce [2] - The company is leveraging its success on e-commerce platforms like Douyin to enhance its offline distribution and explore new retail formats [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 10.6 billion yuan in 2024 to 19.9 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.2%, 24.9%, and 19.7% respectively [3][5] - Net profit is expected to increase from 449 million yuan in 2025 to 751 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 10.2%, 33.3%, and 25.5% respectively [3][5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.12 yuan in 2025 to 1.87 yuan in 2027 [5] Market Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 5.37 billion yuan from nuts in 2024, accounting for 50.5% of total revenue, indicating strong market positioning in the nut category [2] - The Douyin channel generated 2.19 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, reflecting an 81.7% year-on-year increase, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer [3][6] Core Views - The company is focusing on cross-industry expansion and is expected to leverage the peak season for growth. The core product strategy revolves around the main brand "1+1+1+2+N," with an emphasis on strengthening key products and achieving higher growth rates in high-end and ultra-high-end series. New product launches such as "Aogute A Series, Nikahai White Beer, Non-Alcoholic Beer Series, and Light Dry Beer" are aimed at catering to diverse price segments and tastes, aligning with health consumption trends [1][2] - The acquisition of 100% equity in Jimo Yellow Wine for 665 million yuan is a significant step in diversifying the beverage portfolio. The yellow wine business complements the beer sales cycle, helping to mitigate low sales during off-peak seasons. The integration of sales networks and channels is expected to enhance efficiency [2] - The company anticipates opportunities for exceeding expectations in volume and price during the peak season, driven by favorable weather, stable demand, and potential domestic policy stimuli. The cost structure is expected to improve, with major raw material prices locked in for 2025, leading to better profit performance compared to revenue growth [2] Financial Summary - The projected net profit for the company is expected to reach 4.81 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.7%. The corresponding P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21x, 19x, and 18x respectively [3][5] - The financial indicators show a revenue forecast of 33.73 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 5.0%. The net profit for 2024 is projected at 4.35 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 1.8% year-on-year [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company aims to break boundaries and expand its ecosystem, focusing on a comprehensive supply chain integration of manufacturing, branding, and retail [1] - The company has successfully returned to a revenue of 12 billion yuan within three years, indicating significant growth potential [1] - The company is diversifying its product categories beyond nuts and snacks to include beverages, daily necessities, baby products, pet food, and fresh produce [2] - The company is leveraging its online success, particularly through platforms like Douyin, to enhance its offline distribution and retail presence [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are optimistic, with expected growth rates of 25.2%, 24.9%, and 19.7% respectively, alongside net profit growth [3] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 7,115 million yuan in 2023, with a projected increase to 13,303 million yuan by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 25.2% [5] - The net profit for 2023 was 220 million yuan, expected to rise to 449 million yuan by 2025, with a growth rate of 10.2% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.55 yuan in 2023 to 1.12 yuan in 2025 [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 8.7% in 2023 to 14.2% in 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Jiangsu Langyan Life Science Technology Co., Ltd. to accelerate its innovation transformation, enhancing industry competitiveness and profitability [1] - The acquisition will enable the company to incubate and implement self-developed products, leveraging its R&D advantages alongside Langyan's production and sales strengths, thus creating new profit growth points [1] - The company is constructing a business ecosystem that integrates "R&D services + pipeline cultivation + new quality industrial chain," focusing on innovative drug development and expanding its pharmaceutical industrial segment [3][10] Financial Performance - The company expects its net profit for 2025-2027 to be CNY 233 million, CNY 288 million, and CNY 355 million, representing growth rates of 31.3%, 23.8%, and 23.0% respectively [11] - Projected revenues for 2025 are CNY 1.291 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.8% [12] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at CNY 2.08, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 22X [11][12] Business Development - The company is actively increasing R&D investments and enriching its product pipeline, with several key products entering clinical trial phases, which are expected to generate significant revenue [3] - The company has initiated a stock incentive plan, granting 2.43% of its total shares to 127 key personnel, aimed at aligning their interests with the company's long-term performance [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is collaborating with Huawei Cloud to build a "polypeptide molecular large model platform," enhancing its capabilities in polypeptide drug development through advanced AI technologies [10] - The company is diversifying its revenue streams by pursuing both self-initiated projects and acquiring rights to promising drugs, thereby strengthening its market position [9]

证券研究报告 | 公司研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 22 年 月 日 阳光诺和（688621.SH） 收购朗研加码创新，"研发服务+管线培育+新质产业链"三位一体 拟收购朗研 100%股权，助力创新转型加速。公司拟通过发行股份及可转 换公司债券方式购买江苏朗研生命科技控股有限公司 100%股权，并向不 超过 35 名特定投资者发行股份募集配套资金。收购朗研生命有望提高行 业竞争力和盈利能力，完善战略布局，一方面，公司能够实现自主研发产 品的孵化和实施，充分发挥公司研发优势和朗研生命的生产销售优势，促 进研发品种落地以及朗研生命产能释放，形成公司新的盈利增长点。另一 方面，公司将增加医药工业板块业务，实现"CRO+创新研发+医药工业" 的产业布局。未来，医药工业板块将成为公司主营业务的重要组成部分， 进一步提高上市公司盈利能力及抗风险能力，促进上市公司的可持续发 展。 发布股权激励草案，深度绑定核心骨干。公司本次激励计划拟授予的限制 性股票 272.1783 万股，占本激励计划草案公告时公司股本总额 11,200 万 股的 2.43%，授予价格为 22.78 元/股，激励对象 127 人，包括 ...