Investment Rating - The report gives an "Outperform" rating for Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SH) [6] Core Views - Jianghuai Automobile is focusing on the ultra-luxury vehicle market, with the launch of the "Zun Jie" series achieving strong initial sales [3][19] - The company has successfully captured overseas market trends, with overseas revenue surpassing domestic revenue in recent years [2][32] - The partnership with Huawei is expected to enhance the company's traditional business and drive future growth [2][68] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jianghuai Automobile, established in 1964, is a significant asset of Anhui State-owned Assets, involved in the production of a full range of commercial vehicles, passenger cars, and core components [13][16] - The company has entered the passenger car market since 2008 and the new energy sector since 2015, collaborating with major players like Volkswagen and NIO [13][19] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 421.16 billion yuan for 2024, with a first-quarter revenue of 98.01 billion yuan for 2025 [1][23] - The forecasted revenues for 2025-2027 are 490.57 billion, 691.72 billion, and 802.98 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 2.35 billion, 17.51 billion, and 36.22 billion yuan [3][5] Business Segments - The traditional business is divided into commercial vehicles, passenger vehicles, buses, and chassis, with commercial and passenger vehicles contributing the majority of revenue [32] - The commercial vehicle segment is recovering, with a focus on light trucks and expansion into overseas markets [2][41] - The passenger vehicle segment has seen a decline in revenue but an increase in per-unit revenue due to product structure optimization and international market expansion [55][62] Strategic Initiatives - The ultra-luxury vehicle market is identified as a blue ocean for domestic brands, with the "Zun Jie" series positioned to compete effectively [3][73] - The first model of the "Zun Jie" series, S800, is set to launch in May 2025, with strong pre-orders exceeding 6,500 units in the first month [3][73] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from its strategic partnership with Huawei, enhancing its capabilities in smart vehicle solutions and digital transformation [68][72] - The report estimates a reasonable market valuation range for the company in 2026 to be between 106.1 billion and 121.3 billion yuan [3]

Market Overview - In June 2025, the stock market experienced an overall rise due to the easing of Middle Eastern tensions and multiple thematic catalysts, while bond market interest rates declined [4][7] - The average parity of convertible bonds reached a near-high level, with significant valuation increases for bond-like convertible bonds [5][7] - The China Securities Convertible Bond Index closed at 442.1 points on June 27, marking a 2.68% increase for the month [7] Convertible Bond Market Analysis - As of June 27, the arithmetic average parity of convertible bonds was 103.14 yuan, up 3.77% from the previous month, placing it in the 98th percentile since 2023 [7][23] - The average conversion premium rate for bonds in the price range of 90 to 125 yuan was 21.13%, also in the 48th percentile for 2023 [7][23] - The average yield to maturity (YTM) for bond-like convertible bonds fell below zero, indicating a shift in market sentiment [7][29] Recommended Convertible Bonds - The "Top Ten Convertible Bonds" for July 2025 include: - **Shenzhen Gas Convertible Bond (113067.SH)**: High balance and stable profitability, rated AAA [31][32] - **Hongcheng Convertible Bond (110077.SH)**: Stable operations and high dividend payout, rated AA+ [31][43] - **Weir Convertible Bond (113616.SH)**: Strong growth in consumer electronics and automotive sectors, rated AA+ [31][55] - **Jingce Convertible Bond (123176.SZ)**: Urgent need for domestic semiconductor testing equipment, rated AA- [31][66] - **Haoyuan Convertible Bond (118051.SH)**: Recovery trend in innovative drug development, rated AA- [31][79] - **Huakang Convertible Bond (111018.SH)**: Leading position in functional sugar alcohols, rated AA- [31][90] - **Bohai Convertible Bond (113069.SH)**: Steady growth in special alloy materials, rated AA [31][101] - **Dongcai Convertible Bond (113064.SH)**: Increased demand for high-frequency resin materials driven by AI server construction, rated AA [31][113] Industry Insights - The gas industry, represented by Shenzhen Gas, is experiencing steady growth in natural gas sales, with a 5.06% year-on-year increase in supply volume [36] - The environmental governance sector, led by Hongcheng Environment, shows stable revenue growth from water supply and treatment services, with a focus on expanding its business footprint [46] - The semiconductor industry, highlighted by Weir Group, is benefiting from increased demand in automotive electronics and consumer electronics, with significant revenue growth projected [58] - The healthcare sector, represented by Haoyuan Pharmaceutical, is positioned to capitalize on the recovery of innovative drug research and development [82]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to Hisense Visual [5] Core Viewpoints - Hisense Visual is positioned as a leading player in the global television market, with a revenue forecast of 58.53 billion in 2024, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% from 2018 to 2024 [1][22] - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of Mini LED technology, with a projected penetration rate of over 18% in China by 2024, up more than 15 percentage points year-on-year [1][31] - Hisense Visual's overseas revenue is anticipated to reach 52% by 2024, reflecting its successful expansion into international markets [1][23] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hisense Visual is a leading player in China's television industry, primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of display-related products, with a focus on televisions, laser displays, and display chips [13][14] - The company operates under three brands: Hisense, Toshiba, and Vidda, targeting different consumer segments and steadily increasing its market share [2][13] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow to 63.74 billion in 2025, with a net profit of 2.59 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 15.4% [3][4] - Hisense Visual's net profit has shown a compound growth rate of 33.7% from 2018 to 2024, indicating strong profitability recovery after previous downturns [22][23] Market Dynamics - The global television market is stabilizing, with a shift towards larger screens and advanced technologies like Mini LED, which is expected to drive up average selling prices [1][32] - The market share of the top four global television brands is projected to increase from 44.5% in 2018 to 56.2% in 2024, indicating a more concentrated industry landscape [1][32] Competitive Advantages - Hisense Visual has a strong technological foundation, having invested over 10 years in ULED technology and leading advancements in Mini LED and AI technologies [2][31] - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain, including upstream chip production, which enhances its competitive edge in the market [2][31] Future Outlook - The company is expected to capture a larger share of the global television market, with new growth opportunities arising from its investments in laser displays, commercial displays, and XR technologies [3][22] - The stock is valued between 24.89 and 29.63 per share, with a market capitalization range of 325 to 387 billion, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [3][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][48]. Core Insights - The company is a leading online music streaming platform in China, focusing on a young audience and enhancing its subscription business through an increase in paid user numbers [1][10]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a duopoly between the company and Tencent Music, with the company holding approximately 27% market share [2][13]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 79.5 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 1%, primarily due to a decline in social entertainment services [3][18]. Financial Analysis - The company's core business segments are online music services and social entertainment services, with online music services accounting for 67% of total revenue in 2024 [3][18]. - Online music revenue is expected to reach 53.5 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23% [3][18]. - The subscription revenue for 2024 is projected to be 44.6 billion CNY, up 22% year-on-year, driven by an increase in paid user numbers [3][19]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is estimated at 34%, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved cost management [4][34]. - Adjusted profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.7 billion CNY, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 108% [4][28]. Market Positioning - The company has a strong focus on community engagement and emotional connection with users, leveraging user-generated content and a unique review culture to enhance user retention [2][10]. - The company has been gradually regaining music copyrights since the cancellation of exclusive rights in 2021, which is expected to improve its content offerings [2][14]. Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 86.68 billion CNY, 96.76 billion CNY, and 108.10 billion CNY, respectively, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 9%, 12%, and 12% [9][40]. - Adjusted profits for the same period are forecasted to be 2.1 billion CNY, 2.5 billion CNY, and 3.0 billion CNY, with a CAGR of 21% [9][41]. Valuation - The target price for the company is set between 311 and 354 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 30% to 48% from the current price [4][42]. - The company is compared favorably against international peers like Spotify and domestic competitor Tencent Music, with a projected PE ratio for 2025 of 29-33x [4][42].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][10] Core Views - The company has launched new products including the Xiaomi YU7 SUV and AI glasses, enhancing its ecosystem across vehicles, homes, and personal devices [3][4][10] - The company emphasizes R&D investment, planning to allocate 200 billion yuan over the next five years to core technology areas [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated development of AI applications, with a comprehensive strategy covering AI-enabled devices across various sectors [4][10] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow by 35.7% in 2025, 27.2% in 2026, and 14.8% in 2027, reaching 496.7 billion, 631.8 billion, and 725.1 billion yuan respectively [4][10] - Net profit is expected to increase by 64.2% in 2025, 28.4% in 2026, and 32.7% in 2027, amounting to 38.8 billion, 49.9 billion, and 66.1 billion yuan respectively [4][10] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 36.7, 28.6, and 21.6 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4][10] Product Launches - The Xiaomi YU7 SUV has three versions with significant pre-order success, exceeding 200,000 units within three minutes of launch [5][10] - The AI glasses are designed as a personal smart device with a weight of 40g and a 12-megapixel camera, priced starting at 1999 yuan [3][7][10]

- The quant report highlights that the factors "single-quarter revenue growth," "SUR," and "analyst net upgrade" performed well in the past month, while "EPTTM," "volatility," and "stripped limit-up momentum" performed poorly[3][28] - For the year to date, the factors "total market capitalization," "SUE," and "SUR" have shown strong performance, whereas "expected dividend yield," "volatility," and "EPTTM" have underperformed[3][28] - The "brokerage gold stock performance enhancement portfolio" achieved an absolute return of 5.34% for the month (20250603-20250630) and an excess return of 1.00% relative to the mixed equity fund index[5][43] - Year-to-date (20250102-20250630), the "brokerage gold stock performance enhancement portfolio" achieved an absolute return of 10.59% and an excess return of 2.73% relative to the mixed equity fund index[5][43] - The "brokerage gold stock performance enhancement portfolio" ranked in the 28.16th percentile among active equity funds for the year to date (977/3469)[5][43] - The portfolio's annualized return from 2018 to 2025 was 19.34%, with an annualized excess return of 14.38% relative to the mixed equity fund index[45] - The portfolio consistently ranked in the top 30% of active equity funds each year from 2018 to 2025[45]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月01日 6 月 PMI 数据解读 环比小幅改善，价格指数回升 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 6 月份，制造业 PMI、非制造业 PMI 和综合 PMI 产出指数分别为 49.7%、50.5%和 50.7%，分别环比上升 0.2、 0.2 和 0.3 个百分点。 评论： 图1：中国 PMI 主要数据一览 | | | PMI | | 企业规模 | | 生产 | | 需求 | 库存 | | | 价格 | 配送 | 就业 | 预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月01日 小米汽车专题系列之四 优于大市 小米 Yu7 发布，正式进入 1-N 阶段 事件：小米 Yu7 于 2025 年 6 月 26 日晚正式发布。本次发布三个 SKU，分别 是标准版、PRO 版、MAX 版。标准版：25.35 万元，搭载 96.3kwh 磷酸铁锂电 池，后驱续航 835km。PRO 版：27.99 万元，搭载 96.3kwh 磷酸铁锂电池，四 驱续航 770km，零百提升至 4.27s；升级配置，闭式双腔空簧。MAX 版：售价 32.99 万元，搭载 101.7kmh 三元锂电池，零百升级至 3.23s，支持 5.2c 超 充，升级部分配置。市场端销售火爆，上市 18 小时锁单量突破 24 万台。 Yu7 产品力优秀。小米 Yu7 采用流线型车身，造型运动风格；提供了 9 种外 观可选配色；提供四款内饰配色和六款轮毂可选；采用了前排双零重力座椅 设计；全车储物空间丰富；在遮光隔热、静谧性、音响系统等做了提升；全 系搭载了 V6s PLUS 电机、800V 碳化硅高压平台；搭载了智能底盘系统， Pro/Max 版搭载了闭式双腔空气弹簧；全系搭载四合一域控制 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][13] Core Viewpoints - The controlling shareholder has increased its stake in the company, acquiring 4.0665 million shares for a total of approximately RMB 99.97 million, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term development [2][3][4] - The long-term contract prices for refrigerants have been established in Q3, with expectations for continued retail price growth [3][4][6] - The main refrigerant varieties have seen price increases over the past two years, supported by supply-side constraints, indicating a sustained boom cycle in the refrigerant market [3][6][7] - The company, as a leader in fluorochemical products, benefits from a comprehensive industrial chain layout and significant cost advantages, with the highest refrigerant quota in China, positioning it well for the long-term growth of the refrigerant market [3][13] Financial Forecasts - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 4.114 billion, RMB 4.823 billion, and RMB 5.170 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.52, RMB 1.79, and RMB 1.92 [3][13] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 18.9, 16.0, and 14.9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][13] - The company has been enhancing its core competitiveness and optimizing its industrial and product structure through continuous investment in advanced fluorinated chemical materials [3][13]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月01日 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观专题:宏观经济专题研究-去美元化下的央行购金行为研究 行业与公司 能源电子月报：碳化硅车型持续下沉，应用场景逐步铺开 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-06-30 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3444.42 | 10465.11 | 3936.07 | 11887.95 | 3030.63 | 1003.41 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.58 | 0.83 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 1.59 | 1.53 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 5671.37 | 9197.19 | 2888.21 | 3275.23 | 4621.40 | 295.54 | 电子行业周报：美股 AI 算力股价连创新高，持续看好 AI 产业投资机遇 房地产行业 2025 年 7 月投资策略：基本面持续低迷，博弈窗口开启 电新行业快评:电力设备新能源 ...