研究报告 Research Report 17 Aug 2025 中国 & 香港 & 美国可选消费 China (A-share) & Hong Kong & US Discretionary 可选消费 W33 周度趋势解析：海外消费表现优异，新消费主题股价稳健回暖 Week 33 Discretionary Trends: Overseas Consumption Performs Well, New Consumption- Themed Stocks Steadily Recover [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 耐克 | Outperform 德业股份 | | Outperform | | 美的集团 | Outperform 波司登 | | Outperform | | 京东集团 | Outperform 石头科技 | | Outperform | | 格力电器 | Outperform 永辉超市 | | ...

Investment Rating - Maintain OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of HK$27.45 [2][4][12] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue growth of 27% YoY in H1 2025, reaching Rmb150.28 billion, slightly above market expectations, with vehicle sales increasing by 47% YoY to 1.409 million units, resulting in a market share of 10.4% [5][13] - The company aims to narrow the market share gap with the industry leader to less than 4% and ultimately overtake them [5][13] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was reported at 16.4%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points YoY [5][13] - The net cash position stood at Rmb38.91 billion, indicating a strong liquidity position [5][13] Financial Performance - The reported net profit attributable to shareholders was Rmb9.29 billion, down 14% YoY, but core net profit surged 102% YoY to Rmb6.66 billion [5][14] - Selling and administrative expenses (SG&A) saw a significant reduction, with the selling expense ratio at 5.6% and administrative expense ratio at 1.9%, reflecting improved efficiency from brand integration [5][14] - R&D spending decreased by 8.6% YoY to Rmb8.35 billion, with the R&D-to-revenue ratio at 5.6% [5][14] Strategic Developments - The merger with Zeekr is on track, pending shareholder approvals, aiming to streamline operations and enhance efficiency [6][15] - Post-merger, the company will focus on four distinct brands: Geely Auto, Geely Galaxy, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co, with a strategy to accelerate new model launches in H2 2025 [6][15] - The company emphasizes a shift towards fair and high-quality growth in the automotive market, moving away from price wars [6][15] Product Pipeline - Key new launches in H2 2025 include: 1. Galaxy A7, launched in August, targeting the Rmb100k PHEV sedan segment [7][16] 2. Galaxy M9, a flagship PHEV SUV expected in Q3 [7][16] 3. Galaxy Xingyao 6, a compact PHEV sedan launching in Q4 [7][16] 4. Zeekr 9X, set to launch in Q3 as a new tech flagship [7][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 234.60, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of RMB 182.95 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 7.90 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 78.96%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 39.55% to RMB 0.68 billion [3][11]. - The domestic market benefited from national subsidy policies, leading to a revenue increase of 86% to RMB 3.95 billion, while the overseas market also saw a revenue increase of 72% to RMB 3.95 billion [4][12]. - The company launched new products, including the P20 Ultra and G30Space Exploration Edition, enhancing its product competitiveness and market presence [4][13]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 44.56%, a decrease of 9.25 percentage points, while the net profit margin fell to 8.57%, down 16.81 percentage points [4][13]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the next three years are as follows: RMB 17.10 billion for 2025, RMB 21.08 billion for 2026, and RMB 25.50 billion for 2027, with growth rates of 43%, 23%, and 21% respectively [2][10]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 7.82, RMB 9.55, and RMB 11.95, respectively, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30x applied for valuation [5][14]. - The company maintains a strong position in the robotic vacuum cleaner market and is rapidly expanding in the floor washer market, indicating a positive outlook for future profitability [5][14].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [5]. Core Insights - The gold and jewelry industry in China is experiencing overall pressure, with a contraction in domestic gold product consumption in 1H25, leading to weakened manufacturing output [11]. - High-end market competition is intensifying, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook increasing their presence, directly competing for high-net-worth customers [8]. - Lao Pu Gold is shifting its product design to appeal to younger consumers aged 20-35, focusing on lightweight and dynamic jewelry designs that align with current consumer preferences [7][2]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The gold jewelry industry is under pressure, with leading brands seeking differentiation through supply chain optimization, high-margin product introduction, and targeting younger demographics [11]. - The popularity of mid- to low-priced products is increasing, while high-priced, heavy-weight products are seeing a decline in demand [2][8]. Consumer Behavior - The target demographic for Lao Pu Gold is expanding to younger consumers with strong purchasing power, with recent bestsellers reflecting a preference for playful and structurally dynamic designs [7][2]. - High-net-worth customers exhibit limited repurchase rates, indicating a need for brands to innovate and attract new customers [8]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the high-end market is becoming more pronounced, with brands enhancing their offerings to attract high-net-worth individuals [8]. - Lao Pu Gold does not provide recycling services, which affects its performance in the second-hand market compared to previous years [8]. International Expansion - Brands are cautiously expanding into Southeast Asian markets, driven by cultural affinity among Chinese communities [9]. - The focus on profitability and brand alignment is critical as companies navigate international markets [9]. Research and Development - There is a significant variance in R&D speed across the industry, with some brands like CHJ leading in product innovation and frequency of new launches [10]. - Lao Pu Gold maintains strict review standards and longer product lifecycles, impacting its ability to quickly adapt to market changes [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the industry, reflecting a cautious approach towards high valuation sectors such as technology and banking while seeking value in cyclical sectors [7][10]. Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio value decreased slightly to $257.5 billion, with the top ten positions accounting for 87.3% of the total [7][9]. - The most significant investment was in UnitedHealth, acquiring 5.04 million shares valued at approximately $1.57 billion, following a significant price drop of over 40% year-to-date [8][9]. - The report highlights a strategic shift towards real estate, construction, and energy sectors, with new positions in Lamar Advertising, Allegion, Nucor, Pool, and Chevron [9][10]. - Notable sell-offs included large-cap stocks such as Apple and Bank of America, with reductions of 20 million shares (-6.7%) and 26.3 million shares (-4.2%) respectively, aimed at locking in profits and reducing concentrated risks [10][11]. Financial Summary - For Q2, revenue fell by 1.2% year-on-year to $92.52 billion, while net income plummeted by 59.2% to $12.37 billion, primarily due to a $3.76 billion impairment from Kraft Heinz and a 73.5% decline in investment gains [11]. - Operating earnings decreased by 3.8% to $11.16 billion, with cash and cash equivalents at $344 billion, indicating a cautious approach to stock buybacks since May 2024 [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark [19]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 360.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 35.58%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.113 billion yuan, up 38.61% year-on-year, both hitting new historical highs for the same period [8][12]. - The second quarter saw revenue surpassing 200 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 200.345 billion yuan with a 35.92% year-on-year increase, while net profit surged 51.13% year-on-year to 6.883 billion yuan, significantly exceeding market expectations [8][9]. - The company's performance is driven by the growing demand for AI computing, with a net profit margin rising to 3.36% through scale effects and cost control [8][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Growth - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit, with Q2 revenue reaching 200.345 billion yuan, marking a 35.92% year-on-year growth, and net profit at 6.883 billion yuan, up 51.13% year-on-year [8][9][10]. AI Business Expansion - The AI business experienced explosive growth, with overall server revenue increasing over 50% year-on-year in Q2, cloud service provider server revenue surging 150%, and AI server revenue rising over 60% [9][10]. - The company is the largest supplier of AI server chip substrates for NVIDIA, securing exclusive orders for GH200 chip modules and holding a 55% market share in NVIDIA's H100/H200 chip substrate market [10][11]. Cloud Computing Growth - The cloud computing business is a core growth driver, benefiting from expanded capital expenditures by North America's top four cloud service providers, with AI servers accounting for 45% of cloud computing revenue in H1 2025, up from 38% in 2024 [10][11]. - The gross profit margin of the cloud computing business rose 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 6.8% due to increased shipment growth [10][11]. Communication and Network Equipment - The communication and mobile network equipment business achieved structural upgrades, with 800G high-speed switches seeing shipments surge 280% year-on-year in H1, making it a core supplier for major clients like Meta and Google [11][12]. - The gross profit margin of the network equipment business increased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to 7.3% due to the high-end transformation of communication equipment [11][12]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued high demand for AI computing in H2 2025, with a significant increase in AI infrastructure capital expenditures among North American cloud service providers [12]. - The company has sufficient production capacity for next-generation AI servers, with a Mexico plant capable of producing 240,000 units annually and a 45-day delivery cycle for GB200 cabinets [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark by more than 10% [19]. Core Insights - In Q3 FY2025, Applied Materials reported total revenue of $7.3 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations [8][9]. - The semiconductor systems segment generated $5.43 billion in revenue, up 10% year-over-year, driven by investments in expanding Gate-All-Around (GAA) node capacity [9][10]. - The company anticipates a decline in revenue for Q4 FY2025 due to uncertainties in the Chinese market, projecting total revenue guidance of $6.7 billion ± $500 million [8][11]. - AI-driven technology innovations are reshaping semiconductor roadmaps, with a focus on advanced packaging and materials science, which is expected to double the packaging business revenue to over $3 billion annually in the coming years [10][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 FY2025 reached $7.3 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $7.21 billion, with a GAAP gross margin of 48.9% [8][9]. - Non-GAAP earnings per share increased by 17% year-over-year to $2.48, surpassing the consensus of $2.36 [8][9]. Business Segments - The semiconductor systems business saw a revenue increase of 10% year-over-year, primarily due to investments in GAA technology, while DRAM business outperformed expectations with significant growth in AI-related investments [9][10]. - Global Applied Services (AGS) revenue was $1.6 billion, a 1% increase year-over-year, with core services growing approximately 10% [9][10]. Market Trends - The transition from FinFET to GAA technology is expected to increase revenue opportunities by 30% for equivalent fab capacity, with market share gains anticipated as new technologies are adopted [12]. - The company is increasing investments in the U.S., planning over $200 million for a new advanced component manufacturing facility in Arizona [11][12]. Future Outlook - The Chinese market is expected to continue its decline, with revenue projected to drop 15-20% in the coming quarters compared to 2024 [11][12]. - The company aims to enhance its market position in DRAM and advanced packaging, targeting significant revenue growth driven by AI demand [10][12].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 15 Aug 2025 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology 全球科技业绩快报：Supermicro 4Q25 Global Tech Earnings Snapshot : Supermicro 4Q25 姚书桥 Barney Yao 产品与技术战略上，公司推出的数据中心构建块解决方案（DCBBS）为一站式集成方案，可将数据中心建设周期从 2-3 年缩短至 3-6 个月，降低 24% 的功耗和用水量，第二代 LC2 系统稳定性近 99%，能显著降低总拥有成本。AI 与 绿色计算产品组合提供基于多种 GPU 的系统，支持 AI 训练和推理需求，边缘计算领域有针对企业客户的定制化方 案，并与 NVIDIA 紧密合作保障新产品快速量产。 财务健康与运营效率方面，2025 财年第四季度非 GAAP 毛利率 9.6%，同比下降；全年非 GAAP 毛利率 11.2%，低于 2024 年的 13.9%，长期目标通过高附加值解决方案和规模效应提升至 15%-16%。第四季度非 GAAP 运营费用 2.39 亿 美元，同比增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for Mao Geping Cosmetics, with a target price of HK$124.50, indicating a potential upside of 26.4% from the current price of HK$95.70 [2][7]. Core Insights - Mao Geping is positioned as a high-end beauty brand in China, ranking 4th in the color cosmetics market with a market share of 3.7% as of 2024. The brand's primary revenue source is color cosmetics, accounting for approximately 60% of total product revenue [3][20]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a projected revenue of RMB 5.19 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34% [7]. - Mao Geping's product sales are primarily driven by offline channels, with online sales growing rapidly, accounting for 48% of total revenue in 2024 [24][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Mao Geping Cosmetics was founded by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping, who has over 30 years of experience in the industry. The brand is known for its high-quality products and strong cultural heritage [9][10]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.885 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 34.6%. The net profit for the same year was RMB 881 million, also reflecting a growth of 33% [7][20]. - The gross profit margin has remained stable at around 84%, with a slight decrease to 84.4% in 2024 [7][27]. Product and Market Positioning - Mao Geping's product range includes approximately 400 SKUs, with color cosmetics making up about 350 SKUs. The brand faces limited pricing power in the high-end market but has significant room for growth in SKU offerings [4][6]. - The average selling price for color cosmetics is below RMB 180, while skincare products have a higher average price of RMB 312 [20]. Sales Channels - The company primarily utilizes high-end department stores for offline sales, with a focus on providing a premium customer experience through well-trained beauty advisors. As of 2024, Mao Geping has over 409 counters across more than 120 cities in China [3][29]. - Online sales have been increasing rapidly, with a year-on-year growth of 51.2% in 2024, driven by enhanced marketing efforts on e-commerce platforms [24][34]. Customer Engagement - The company has seen a significant increase in membership, with a total of 1.51 million members as of 2024, representing a 46.6% year-on-year growth. The overall repurchase rate improved from 26.8% to 30.9% [39][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Tingyi Holdings Corp. (康师傅控股) [2] Core Views - The company demonstrates a prominent value in dividends, with a projected dividend yield of 7.2% based on a historical 100% payout ratio [6][14] - Profitability continues to improve despite slight revenue pressure, reflecting effective implementation of a high-quality development strategy [3][11] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is expected to be 79.886 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.9% [15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.235 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.4% [15] - The gross profit margin is expected to increase from 33.1% in 2024 to 34.0% in 2025 [10] Segment Performance - The beverage segment experienced a revenue decline of 2.6% in the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in gross profit margin to 37.7% [4][12] - The instant noodle segment saw a slight revenue decrease of 2.5% in the first half of 2025, but the gross profit margin improved to 27.8% [5][13] Cash Flow and Dividends - As of June 30, 2025, the company had cash and bank deposits totaling 19.49 billion yuan, indicating strong cash flow [14] - The company has consistently maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with historical ratios of 100% or more from 2020 to 2024 [6][14]