Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The highlights in 2024 are the significant slowdown in the growth rates of interest - bearing debt and urban investment bonds of urban investment platforms, the remarkable effect of "hidden debt turning into explicit debt", and the convergence of investment and financing intensity [6][8][66]. - Concerns include the need to improve the financing structure, the considerable debt pressure in economically large provinces like Zhejiang and Jiangsu, the reduction of book funds and the decline in the coverage ratio of monetary funds to short - term debt, and the large - scale outstanding project payments from local governments to urban investment platforms and inter - state - owned enterprise transactions [6][8][67]. - In 2025, the focuses of urban investment include the delisting of financing platforms and their subsequent market - oriented transformation, the settlement of overdue enterprise accounts, and the resolution of non - standard products involving the public [9][68]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2024 Urban Investment Debt Resolution Achievements - **Overall Debt Scale and Growth Rate**: The interest - bearing debt and urban investment bonds of urban investment platforms increased slightly year - on - year, with growth rates dropping to the lowest since 2019. The debt growth rate has declined for four consecutive years. The reasons are debt replacement by local government bonds, weakened project financing demand, and strict bond financing policies [13]. - **Provincial Debt Changes**: Six key provinces saw a year - on - year decrease in interest - bearing debt, with Tianjin and Guizhou having the most significant reduction. In terms of bonds, 12 provinces had a year - on - year decrease in urban investment bond scale, with Jiangsu, Tianjin, Hunan, and Guizhou having obvious shrinkage [17][19]. - **Debt Ratio Changes**: The local broad and explicit debt ratios continued to rise, with the explicit debt ratio's year - on - year growth rate reaching a new high in recent years. Since 2021, the growth rate of the explicit debt ratio has been higher than that of the broad debt ratio, in line with the debt resolution idea of "hidden to explicit". Most provinces saw an increase in the broad debt ratio in 2024, except for six provinces [22][25]. - **Financing Structure Changes**: The proportions of bank loans and bonds in urban investment debt both decreased year - on - year, with a combined decrease of 2.2 percentage points. This part of the financing demand may have shifted to high - cost non - standard financing channels [4][27]. - **Debt Maturity Structure Changes**: The proportion of long - term debt increased slightly in 2024, but there is still room for improvement compared with 2019 - 2022 [39]. 3.2 Information Revealed by the Three Financial Statements of Urban Investment Platforms - **Balance Sheet**: The asset - liability ratio of urban investment platforms was basically stable, but the short - term solvency weakened. The coverage ratio of monetary funds to short - term debt decreased, and the government's project payments and inter - state - owned enterprise transactions may still need improvement [5][43]. - **Income Statement**: The operating income of urban investment platforms decreased for the first time in six years in 2024, and the net profit continued to decline. This is related to the tight investment and financing environment and the change in government assessment focus [5][51]. - **Cash Flow Statement**: The net operating cash flow of urban investment platforms deviated from the income statement and increased significantly after turning positive in 2023. The net investment cash flow was continuously negative, and the net financing cash flow decreased by 39% year - on - year, indicating a convergence of investment and financing intensity [5][57][60]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: The growth rates of interest - bearing debt and urban investment bonds slowed down, the debt scale was effectively controlled, and the investment and financing intensity of urban investment platforms converged [66]. - **Outlook**: In 2025, focus on the delisting and market - oriented transformation of financing platforms, the settlement of overdue enterprise accounts, and the resolution of non - standard products involving the public [9][68].

债券研究 7 月生产/消费季节性上利好上游，反内卷助力。随着下半年传统消费旺季临 近，Q3 也是每年生产旺季，7 月工业品、金属及能化品种价格近 20 年普遍显 现为上涨趋势，7、8 月也是每年季节性用电高峰，煤炭、石化等需求高峰也或 临近，生产的季节性可以解释部分为何每年 7、8 月上游相对占优。此外，近 1 年反内卷的政策表述在强化，基本可作为近期政策交易主线，化工、钢铁、 有色等上游品种或进一步获得涨价预期。 ❖ 估值展望：再临前高位，建议审慎中性 转债问题在于估值偏高。截至上周五百元溢价率再次来到 25%以上的位置，接 近 2024 年 10 月及 2025 年 3 月的前高位，在权益波动性快速回归、市场对权 益预期高涨时期，转债估值高位震荡虽为正常，但突破前高还需更多事实性变 化推动（如宽基指数的进一步突破震荡区间、宏观图景的大幅上修等），后市 还待进一步观察。而从转债和估值期权隐波比较的视角，当前转债明显被高估， 两者差额一度突破今年 2 月峰值（当时转债资金面明显强于权益）。转债估值 高位下，上行空间或有限，建议重点关注上游、成长的轮动性机会，策略上仍 以交易为主，当前并非做配置的好窗口。 转债 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 各行业如何"反内卷"？ ❖ 核心观点 近期市场对供给侧改革的关注升温，参照综合求是、人民日报、工信部等官方 表态，反内卷的重点行业或包括光伏、锂电、新能源汽车、电商平台等。结合 数据可得性与行业进展，我们重点关注 5 个产业，近期其基本面均面临一定压 力，例如光伏价格偏弱但生产端持续偏强、汽车销售折扣率再度提升、钢铁水 泥价格仍然偏弱、生猪行业临近亏损等。从其反内卷措施来看，以行业自律、 行政指导、舆论监督为主，按照约束力排序，或是钢铁>生猪>汽车>水泥>光 伏，关注后续落地进展。 ❖ 一、政策如何定调？ 什么是"内卷式"竞争？参考求是中的界定，既包括企业端的低价竞争、同质 化竞争、与过度宣传营销，也包括政府端的"制造…不公平非普惠的优惠政策"、 "不顾地方产业基础和资源禀赋情况，盲目上马新兴产业、重点产业"、"保护 本地市场、扶持本地企业，设置或明或暗的市场壁垒"。 主要涉及哪些行业？综合求是、人民日报、工信部等官方表态，反内卷的重点 行业或包括光伏、锂电、新能源汽车、电商平台等。 如何"反内卷"？参照求是《深刻认识和综合整治"内卷式"竞争》的阐述， 反内卷需 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 ❖ 一、景气向上： 1）服务消费：航班出行有所上行。7 月前 5 日，国内航班执行数为 1.43 万架 次，同比+4%。6 月为 1.28 万架次，同比+0.8%。 2）土地溢价率：低位反弹。6 月 29 日当周，百城土地溢价率回升至 7.8%。近 三周平均为 4.3%。5 月为 4.93%。 3）物价："反内卷"带动煤炭和地产基建类价格上涨。山西产动力末煤(Q5500) 秦皇岛港平仓价、螺纹钢上海现货价、铁矿石价格指数:62%Fe:CFR 中国北方、 南华玻璃指数分别上涨 0.5%、2.9%、2%、0.7%。 ❖ 二、景气向下： 1）华创宏观 WEI 指数：仍在较高位置。截至 6 月 29 日，该指数为 6%，较 6 月 22 日的 7.63%下行 1.63 个点，但仍在较高位置。6 月 29 日当周，商品房成 交面积、秦皇岛煤炭吞吐量、沥青开工率、钢厂线材产量等指标普遍下行。4 月以来，指数上行的主要驱动因素是沥青开工率、乘用车批零和商品房成交面 积。 2）地产销售：商品房住宅销售降幅扩大。我们统计的 67 个城市，7 月前 4 日， 商品房成交面积同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the media industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [44]. Core Insights - The gaming sector is expected to maintain a strong performance due to the summer peak season and potential catalysts from the AI industry in Q3, with a projected valuation uplift to 25x [3]. - The report highlights the significant impact of AI applications and the cultural confidence brought by popular IPs, suggesting a robust growth trajectory for the media sector [8][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the ongoing competition in the instant retail market, particularly with Alibaba's 500 billion RMB subsidy plan, which is expected to stimulate market activity [9][34]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media sector index rose by 2.70% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.16%, ranking 6th among all sectors [12][10]. - The gaming market continues to show strong performance, with Tencent's products dominating the iOS sales charts [19][20]. Industry Data - As of July 4, 2025, the total market capitalization of the media sector is approximately 1,665.79 billion RMB, with 140 listed companies [4]. - The media sector's absolute performance over the past 12 months is 51.9%, indicating a strong recovery trend [5]. Gaming Market Insights - Key gaming companies such as Giant Network and Kyeing Network are expected to benefit from new product launches and AI integration, with significant revenue growth anticipated during the summer season [3][19]. - The iOS gaming sales rankings show a consistent presence of Tencent and NetEase products, indicating strong consumer engagement [20]. Film Market Overview - The film market has shown a recovery, with ticket sales reaching approximately 26.70 billion RMB as of July 4, 2025, recovering about 91% of the pre-pandemic levels [22][25]. - The top films during the reporting period include "Jurassic World: Rebirth" and "Detective Conan: The One-Eyed Phantom," contributing significantly to the overall box office [28]. Important News and Company Announcements - The report notes the launch of the AI-native UGC game engine Mirage by major tech firms, which could revolutionize game development [31]. - Alibaba's substantial subsidy plan for instant retail is expected to enhance market dynamics and consumer spending [34].

7月 1日，习近平主席主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议，研究纵深推进全 国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。会议指出依法依规治理企业 低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出；规范政府采 购和招标投标，加强对中标结果的公平性审查；规范地方招商引资，加强招商 引资信息披露等。 7月 3日，工业和信息化部于召开光伏企业座谈会。会上，14家光伏行业企业 及光伏行业协会负责人作交流发言，围绕企业生产经营、科技创新、市场竞争、 行业生态建设等方面进行交流，介绍企业基本情况、面临的困难和问题，提出 政策建议。工业和信息化部党组书记、部长李乐成表示，坚决落实中央财经委 第六次会议关于纵深推进全国统一大市场建设的决策部署，聚焦重点难点，依 法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后 产能有序退出，实现健康、可持续发展。 近期，光伏板块反内卷呼声日益高涨，硅料收储、光伏玻璃减产、高层反内卷 会议等事件使得光伏供给侧改革预期增强。未来随着行业自律的推进以及供给 侧政策落地，行业供需有望改善，带动产业链价格及盈利修复。目前，光伏行 业价格及盈利均处于底部位置，板块估值水平同样较低， ...

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20250630-20250704） 形态学短期看多指数减少，后市或先抑后扬 ❖ 本周回顾 本周市场普遍上涨，上证指数单周上涨 1.4%，创业板指单周上涨 1.5%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型部分宽基指数看多。低波动率模型中性。特征龙虎榜机构模 型看空。特征成交量模型中性。智能沪深 300 模型看多，智能中证 500 模型中 性。 中期：涨跌停模型中性。月历效应模型中性。 长期：长期动量模型所有宽基指数中性。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看多。A 股综合国证 2000 模型中性。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看多。 本周行业指数普遍上涨，涨幅前五的行业为：钢铁、银行、建材、医药、电力 设备及新能源，跌幅前五的行业为：综合金融、计算机、综合、交通运输、通 信。从资金流向角度来说，除农林牧渔外所有行业主力资金净流出，其中电子、 计算机、机械、基础化工、国防军工主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 94.90%，相较于上周增加了 97 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 80.57%，相较于上周增加了 133 个 bps。 本周交通运输与电子获得最 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, emphasizing the importance of focusing on companies with long-term competitive advantages and the implementation of robotics in various scenarios [2][7]. Core Insights - The mechanical industry is expected to enter a new recovery cycle due to increased monetary and fiscal policies, with a focus on domestic demand stimulation [7]. - The report highlights the shift of humanoid robots from product development to customer acquisition and the critical phase of commercial implementation, particularly in sectors like automotive manufacturing and intelligent logistics [7]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies in the industrial control sector, robotics, machine tools, cutting tools, testing, engineering machinery, and logistics equipment [7]. Summary by Sections Key Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Investment Ratings - Companies such as 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology), 法兰泰克 (Flantech), and 信捷电气 (Xinjie Electric) are rated as "Strong Buy" with projected EPS growth from 2.12 to 3.01, 0.60 to 0.94, and 1.83 to 2.78 respectively from 2025E to 2027E [3][8]. - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast and valuation metrics for various companies, indicating strong growth potential in the mechanical sector [3]. Industry and Company Investment Views - The report discusses the precision reducer market, which is expected to reach a scale of 9.1 billion yuan in 2024, with domestic companies increasing their market share [21][22]. - The report identifies three major downstream application scenarios for precision reducers: industrial robots, high-end machine tools, and humanoid robots, highlighting the growth potential in these areas [23]. - Companies like 博众精工 (Bozhong Precision) are noted for their multi-track business layout and significant revenue growth, with a projected CAGR of 11.94% from 2018 to 2024 [27][29]. Key Data Tracking - The report includes macroeconomic data, such as the manufacturing PMI index and fixed asset investment growth rates, which are crucial for understanding the industry's performance [34][35]. - It also tracks the monthly sales of excavators and forklifts, providing insights into the demand trends within the mechanical sector [41][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking sector, expecting the sector index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent revisions to the CIPS (Cross-border Interbank Payment System) rules, which aim to enhance the management of participants and adapt to the growing cross-border e-commerce trade, projected to reach approximately 2.71 trillion yuan in 2024, a 14% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - The CIPS system processed 8.2169 million transactions amounting to 175.49 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 42.60% [3]. - The report emphasizes the flexibility introduced in the new CIPS rules, allowing financial market infrastructure participants to open CIPS accounts based on business needs rather than strict management requirements [4]. Summary by Sections CIPS Overview - CIPS is a clearing system for cross-border payments in RMB, distinct from SWIFT's messaging system, and has seen a substantial increase in participation, with 174 direct participants and 1,509 indirect participants across 120 countries [2][3]. Recent Developments - The new rules include relaxed entry conditions for system participants, allowing for a more flexible approach to participant management [4]. - The rules specify that foreign direct participants must select domestic direct participants as fund custodians, as foreign banks lack CNAPS accounts [4]. Risk Management Enhancements - The updated regulations detail business processing and risk management requirements, mandating that participants establish robust risk management frameworks and adhere to international anti-money laundering standards [4]. Market Performance - The banking sector index rose by 3.77% during the reporting period, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.23 percentage points [8]. - The report suggests a focus on banks with high dividend yields and strong asset quality, recommending major state-owned banks and select regional banks for investment [9]. Company Forecasts - Key banks such as Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and China Merchants Bank are highlighted with positive earnings forecasts and investment ratings, indicating strong potential for returns [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive sector, highlighting optimistic expectations for the second half of the year [4][7]. Core Insights - June sales performance exceeded expectations, and the market is anticipated to remain strong in the second half of the year, with reduced risks from price wars due to a combination of "anti-involution" and strong sales [2][4]. - Concerns about potential fluctuations in sales due to subsidy policy changes next year may suppress investment sentiment, but there are opportunities for positioning after sentiment stabilizes [2][4]. Data Tracking - In June, new energy vehicle deliveries showed significant growth, with BYD delivering 382,585 units (up 12% year-on-year), while Li Auto and Leap Motor saw declines of 24.1% and 28.8% respectively [5][20]. - Traditional automakers also performed well, with Geely's sales increasing by 42.1% year-on-year to 236,000 units, and SAIC Motor leading the market with 365,000 units sold [5][23]. Investment Recommendations - For complete vehicles, the report recommends Jianghuai Automobile, with a positive outlook for the second half of the year. It also suggests monitoring Li Auto, BAIC Blue Valley, SAIC Motor, Seres, and Xiaomi Group [7]. - In the auto parts sector, it advises low-positioning strategies due to significant industry beta impacts, recommending companies like Xinquan, Xingyu, Aikodi, Haoneng, and Horizon [7]. - The heavy truck segment is expected to maintain strong growth, with recommendations for Heavy Truck A and Weichai H/A [7]. Industry News - In June, the retail market for passenger vehicles reached 2.032 million units, a 15% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicles accounting for 107,100 units sold, reflecting a 25% growth [32]. - The report notes the launch of the new XPeng G7, which features advanced AI capabilities and is priced between 195,800 and 225,800 yuan [32]. Market Performance - The automotive sector index increased by 0.21%, ranking 23rd out of 29 sectors, while the overall market indices showed positive growth [10][34].