债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 稳握票息，静待波澜 ——2026 年利率债年度投资策略 ❖ 债市策略：票息为矛、交易为盾 1、再议定价锚：从政策利率到市场利率。（1）10y 定价锚：基本面和政策条 件稳态环境下，参考 25 年关税冲击后 10y 国债运行区间、央行给出的合意区 间、配置与交易行为的变化，我们认为 10y 国债的核心波动区间大致在 OMO+30~50BP，行情极致时可能出现上下 5bp 的超额波动。（2）10y 国债运 行区间：OMO 降息 1 次 10BP（55%概率），全年波动区间预计在 1.6-1.9%； 不降息环境中（40%概率），全年波动区间 1.7-2.0%。（3）30y 定价锚：供需结 构并不占优，30-10y 利差大致可按 30-50BP 观察。（4）1y 定价锚：1y 国股行 存单利率下限或在 DR007+10BP 左右，接近+20BP 具备配置性价比。 2、震荡市赚什么钱？如何操作？ （1）票息为盾：重视震荡市场票息对组合的贡献提升，一是要充分把握票息 的时间价值，早配置早收益，二是要抓住调整窗口积极进行票息布局，在调整 中可以使用"华创三维度比价模型"寻 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 190 billion yuan, and the credit balance growth rate dropped to 6.4%. New social financing scale was 2.4885 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, and the stock growth rate of social financing remained at 8.5%. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 decreased from 8.2% to 8.0% due to the base effect, and the growth rate of M1 under the new caliber dropped from 6.2% to 4.9%. Overall, credit performance in November was weak, off - balance - sheet bills slightly supplemented, with the household sector being the main drag. The "shopping festival" effect had limited impact, and the marginal effect of the real estate sprint weakened. Social financing growth was maintained due to corporate bond issuance, and the M2 growth rate declined slightly, with non - bank deposits and household deposits all decreasing year - on - year [1][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit: The household sector performed averagely, and the corporate sector was relatively better - **Household sector**: In November, household short - term loans decreased by 215.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 178.8 billion yuan, remaining significantly below the seasonal level. The "shopping festival" effect on household consumption was limited. Household medium - and long - term loans increased by 10 billion yuan, slightly recovering from the previous month but still 290 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The real estate sales sprint had limited results, and the second - hand housing market continued to decline [2][10]. - **Corporate sector**: In November, corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 170 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 40 billion yuan. The pull of policy - based financial instruments was limited, and it was the economic "off - season" at the end of the year, so it was difficult for corporate medium - and long - term loans to have significant increments. Corporate short - term loans were close to the seasonal level, and on - balance - sheet bills slightly supplemented. Bill financing increased by 334.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 211.9 billion yuan. The demand for low - price "ticket grabbing" was limited [2][11][18]. 3.2 Social Financing: Government bonds had a high base at the end of the year, and corporate bonds increased - **Government bonds**: In November, the issuance scale of government bonds increased, with new government bonds reaching 1.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 104.8 billion yuan. In December, affected by the base effect, the net financing of government bonds was expected to be 0.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate might fall to around 8.2% by the end of the year [3][22]. - **Corporate bonds and entrusted loans**: After the policy - based financial instruments were fully disbursed, entrusted loans turned negative, with a decrease of 18.8 billion yuan in November. November was the "peak season" for corporate bond issuance, with new corporate bonds reaching 416.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 178.8 billion yuan. Some enterprises replaced loans with bonds after the bond yields dropped significantly in October [3][25][28]. 3.3 Deposits: M1 growth rate declined, and non - bank deposits weakened - **M1**: The new - caliber M1 increased less month - on - month compared with the same period last year, and the M2 - M1 gap widened slightly. In November, the new - caliber M1 increased by 893.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate dropped from 6.2% to 4.9% [4][27]. - **M2 components**: Non - bank deposits grew more slowly, and household deposits were slightly lower than the historical average. In November, non - bank deposits increased by 80 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 100 billion yuan; household deposits increased by 670 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 120 billion yuan. The process of household deposits moving to non - bank deposits slowed down during the volatile adjustment of the equity market since November [4][34].

债券研究 证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 预期平稳，等待地产年末行情 ——每周高频跟踪 20251213 ❖ 工业高频：生产开工略有改善 （1）动力煤：煤价跌幅扩大。内陆省份电厂日耗同比仍显疲弱，终端企业 采购以长协煤兑现为主，对高价市场煤接受偏低，沿海电厂日耗小幅下降。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格涨幅扩大。主要钢材品种去库节奏继续加快，但 建材、螺纹表观需求走弱也加速，说明供给收缩力度相对更大。 （3）沥青：开工率继续处于同期低位。沥青装置开工率环比+0.1pct 至 27.9%，同比-1.0%。赶工需求逐步减少，出货量也处于往年同期低位。 2、地产：（1）新房成交放缓。11 月 28 日-12 月 4 日，30 城新房成交面积 211.8 万平方米，环比-0.6%，同比-36%，降幅继续扩大，月初新房销售动能 有所回落。（2）二手房成交继续走弱。二手房成交面积环比-2.7%，同比- 39.6%，环比跌幅扩大，主因高基数影响。 ❖ 消费相关：11 月乘用车零售同比-7% 1、汽车：11 月 1-30 日，全国乘用车市场零售 226.3 万辆，同比去年同期下 降 7%，较上月增长 1%。 2、原油：价格继续上涨。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 平稳开局，重在增效 ——债券视角看中央经济工作会议 1、总体基调："稳中求进、提质增效"，力度或持稳、对扩大增量诉求下降， 对经济"质"要求高于"量"。"跨周期"也体现目光更长远、而非短期刺激。 2、财政政策：延续"更加积极"定调，强调"必要的财政赤字、债务总规模 和支出总量"，相较去年略偏保守，预计明年财政扩张力度基本维持、资金投 向进一步优化，准财政工具延续使用，配合实现投资"止跌回稳"目标。 债券研究 ❖ 二、货币政策：兼顾跨周期，如何操作？ 目标侧重关注增长和物价，淡化金融总量诉求。落点更突出"稳增长"与"物 价合理回升"。一是通过维持流动性合理充裕、降实体成本，配合财政加杠杆， 推动物价回升。二是更关注利率传导机制畅通，突出利率调控、合理的利率比 价关系的保持。 "灵活高效"运用降准降息。相较于"适时"降准降息或更加关注政策效果， 与兼顾"跨周期"调控的思路一致。明年降息窗口并未关闭，宽松基调延续或 对债市仍形成保护。中性情形政策利率或降息 1 次、幅度 10bp。基数影响下 为支持经济增速达标或需靠前发力，一季度末至二季度初落地概率或更高。 ❖ 三、重点任务： ...

www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2025年12月13日 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第154期 2025Q3实体药店市场分析 本周专题联系人：高初蕾 华创医药团队： | 首席分析师 | 郑辰 | | 执业编号：S0360520110002 | 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联席首席分析师 | | 刘浩 | 执业编号：S0360520120002 | 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长 | | 李婵娟 | 执业编号：S0360520110004 | 邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长 | | 高初蕾 | 执业编号：S0360524070002 | 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 | 王宏雨 | | 执业编号：S0360523080006 | 邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 | 朱珂琛 | | 执业编号：S0360524070007 | 邮箱：zhukechen@h ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Cambricon Technologies Co., Ltd. (寒武纪-U) [1] Core Insights - Cambricon is a leading player in the domestic AI chip sector, focusing on the development and innovation of AI chips, with a comprehensive product matrix covering cloud, edge, and terminal solutions [6][22] - The company has experienced explosive revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase from 1.17 billion yuan in 2024 to 20.69 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 56.4% [2][9] - The AI chip market in China is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size increase from 142.54 billion yuan in 2024 to 1,336.79 billion yuan by 2029, driven by the demand for AI computing power [6][8] Summary by Sections 1. Strong Research and Technical Background - Cambricon, established in 2016, is recognized as a leading enterprise in the AI chip field, focusing on AI chip research and technology innovation [13] - The company has developed a complete technical system from instruction set architecture to chip design and basic system software, making it one of the few domestic AI computing solution providers with full-stack self-research capabilities [6][20] 2. Explosive Demand in the GPU Market - The global GPU market is undergoing structural changes, with AI, big data, and cloud computing driving a continuous increase in computing power demand [6][44] - The domestic AI chip market is expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 53.7% from 2025 to 2029, with the GPU market share projected to rise from 69.9% in 2024 to 77.3% in 2029 [6][8] 3. Hardware and Software Synergy - Cambricon has iterated its MLUarch microarchitecture to the fifth generation, supporting high-performance computing needs and establishing a strong technical barrier [8][20] - The NeuWare platform enhances software development efficiency, reducing barriers for developers and increasing ecosystem stickiness [8][20] 4. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 72.62 billion yuan in 2025, 132.28 billion yuan in 2026, and 206.85 billion yuan in 2027, alongside corresponding net profits of 25.20 billion yuan, 48.97 billion yuan, and 77.99 billion yuan [2][9][22] 5. Investment Logic - The investment logic is based on three dimensions: solidifying technical barriers, explosive demand from AI models driving GPU needs, and strategic positioning to capture domestic replacement opportunities [8][9]

当前价：31.36 港元 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国宏桥（01378.HK）跟踪分析报告 推荐（维持） 优质电解铝高股息标的，行业龙头兼具成长 目标价：34.3 港元 港股公司 铝 2025 年 12 月 12 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘岗 邮箱：liugang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120002 证券分析师：李梦娇 邮箱：limengjiao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040002 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 992,438.02 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股(万股) | 992,438.02 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 3,112.29 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 3,112.29 | | 资产负债率(%) | 49.08 | | 每股净资产(元) | 11.92 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价(港元) | 34.90/10.96 | 市场表现对比图(近 12 个月) -9% 64% 138% 211% 24/12 25/02 25/05 25/07 25/09 25/12 2024-12-12~2025-12-1 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the long-term allocation value of precious metals, particularly gold, supported by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar credit system [10][11][44] - Gold demand is expected to remain strong due to central bank purchases, with a total of 219.85 tons purchased in Q3 2025, marking a historical high [18][20] - Silver is projected to experience strong price momentum due to persistent supply-demand gaps and low domestic inventory levels [28][39] Group 2: Copper - The copper mining sector is expected to maintain low growth rates, with a projected supply shortage in 2026 due to ongoing mining and smelting conflicts [12][45] - Global copper production is anticipated to increase by approximately 10,000 tons, 70,000 tons, and 84,000 tons from 2025 to 2027, while smelting capacity is expected to rise by 217,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 20,000 tons respectively [12][47] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the copper sector, such as Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper, as supply tightens [2][12] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with domestic production growth rates projected at 2.2%, 1.4%, and 0.4% from 2025 to 2027 [3][13] - Demand for aluminum remains resilient, driven by investments in new energy and power grids, with a projected domestic demand growth of 2.6%, 1.0%, and 3.6% over the same period [3][13] - The report highlights the importance of high dividend stocks in the aluminum sector, recommending companies like China Hongqiao and Tianshan Aluminum [3][13] Group 4: Cobalt - The cobalt supply chain is being reshaped by policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a significant reduction in global supply, with projections of only 96,600 tons contributed annually from 2026 to 2027 [4][14] - Demand for cobalt is expected to grow, particularly in high-end electric vehicles and solid-state batteries, with a projected global shortage of 32,000 tons and 31,000 tons in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][14] - Companies benefiting from cobalt price elasticity, such as Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum, are recommended for investment [4][14]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced the restart of the Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) tool, starting December 12, with an initial plan to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities in the first month[2] - The RMP is expected to inject approximately $150 billion in reserves into the market, continuing until Q2 2026[4] - The purchase structure will focus on ultra-short-term Treasury securities, with 75% of purchases planned for maturities of 1-4 months[4] Group 2: Economic Implications - The RMP aims to improve short-term liquidity, benefiting the U.S. stock market's "loose trading" environment[5] - However, RMP is not equivalent to quantitative easing (QE) and is expected to have limited effects on long-term interest rates and the cost of financing for the real economy[5] - The RMP's operational scale may need to be adjusted based on seasonal fluctuations in the Treasury General Account (TGA) and overall liquidity demands[4] Group 3: Current Liquidity Conditions - The current reserve levels are slightly below the reasonable range, with reserves to nominal GDP ratio at 9.5% and reserves to total bank assets at 11.8%[7] - The reasonable reserve balance is estimated to be around $3 trillion, indicating a need for the RMP to maintain adequate liquidity levels[22] - Compared to the end of QT-1, the current reserve levels are more ample, as they were 6.4% and 7.9% respectively at that time[7] Group 4: Market Indicators - The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) and the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) have shown signs of liquidity tightening, with SOFR recently exceeding the interest on excess reserves (IOER) for consecutive weeks[8] - The EFFR-IOER spread has been narrowing, indicating a potential liquidity shortage in the banking system, although the situation is better than in 2019[9]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - The Fed ended 2025 with continued interest rate cuts, totaling 75 basis points for the year. The policy focus shifted from concerns about inflation rebound to addressing employment downward pressure. The threshold for restarting rate cuts in 2026 is expected to increase, depending more on the pace of employment slowdown and the effectiveness of alleviating commodity inflation related to tariffs. [5][30] - The Fed's restart of RMP is expected to ease the previous liquidity tightening situation. However, internal disagreements among officials have intensified, and with key events such as the Fed chairmanship change and mid - term elections in 2026, the stability of monetary policy has decreased. It is expected that the Fed will maintain a "wait - and - see" attitude in the first half of 2026, and changes in the second half may depend on the new chairman's policy orientation and the economic outlook due to fiscal expansion. [5][30] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Decision and Market Reaction - On the early morning of December 11, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates for the third consecutive time, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5% - 3.75%, and the reserve balance rate and discount rate to 3.65% and 3.75% respectively. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, a cumulative 75 basis points, reducing the federal funds target rate from 4.5% to 3.75%. [4][7] - After the interest rate decision was announced, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 4.18%. The three major U.S. stock indexes rose, and the U.S. dollar index briefly rose above 99 points. During the press conference, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield turned downward, the U.S. stock rally continued to expand, the U.S. dollar index returned to around 98.5, COMEX gold first fell then rose, and crude oil prices declined. [8] 2. Interest Rate Statement - Focused on labor market pressure, policy outlook, and Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). The description of the unemployment rate was changed to "the unemployment rate has risen as of September". The statement added the expression "the extent and timing" for future interest rate adjustments, last seen in December 2024, which may imply a higher threshold for future rate cuts. It also added that the committee believes the reserve balance has fallen to an adequate level and will buy short - term U.S. Treasuries as needed to maintain a continuous and adequate supply of reserves. [4][12][16] 3. Economic Forecast - GDP growth forecasts for the next four years were raised, while the unemployment rate forecast for the following year and inflation forecasts for this and next year were slightly lowered. The December dot - plot predicts one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, with the median remaining the same as in September. However, there is a high degree of dispersion among the 19 Fed officials providing forecasts, indicating significant disagreements on the subsequent rate - cut magnitude and increasing policy uncertainty. [18][19] 4. Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) - Core Purpose: To increase the bank system's reserve scale by purchasing short - term Treasuries and other assets, addressing the recent surge in funding prices. Since 2023, the scale of the overnight reverse repurchase tool ONRRP has dropped significantly to near zero, and the bank reserve scale has returned to the 2020 level. The Fed's long - term balance sheet reduction and the U.S. government shutdown have also drained short - term liquidity, with the SOFR remaining persistently higher than the EFFR since September 2025, with the spread reaching a maximum of 36 basis points. [2][20][22] - Bond - buying Operation: Starting from December 12, it plans to purchase $40 billion in Treasury bills over the next 30 days. The subsequent purchase amount will be adjusted according to the reserve supply outlook and seasonal fluctuations. According to Powell, the neutral monthly purchase level may be between $20 billion and $25 billion. [2][22] - Historical Operation: The last time the Fed carried out RMP was in 2019. In mid - September 2019, the SOFR was nearly 300 basis points higher than the EFFR. The Fed announced the launch of RMP on October 11, 2019, buying Treasury bills at a rate of $60 billion per month to maintain the reserve level at or above that of early September 2019. [2][22] - Comparison with QE: Unlike QE, which lowers long - term interest rates by buying long - term Treasuries and then reduces borrowing costs, RMP aims to replenish the bank system's reserves by buying short - term Treasuries, ensuring an adequate reserve scale without indicating a change in the monetary policy stance. [3][23] 5. Labor Market - Both labor supply and demand are slowing down, and employment data may overestimate the actual situation. From June to September 2025, the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 4.4%. Since April, the average monthly non - farm employment increase was about 40,000, but after adjustment, it may actually have decreased by about 20,000 per month. The continuous and gradual cooling of the labor market might be the main reason for the continued rate cuts. [5][24] 6. Inflation - Non - tariff factors have made positive progress, and inflation caused by tariff factors may peak in the first quarter of 2026. It is maintained that the impact of tariffs on inflation is one - time rather than continuous. In September, the U.S. core CPI year - on - year decreased from 3.1% in August to 3.0%, and the month - on - month growth rate dropped from 0.3% to 0.2%. Among sub - items, prices of tariff - sensitive goods such as clothing, furniture, and entertainment products increased month - on - month to varying degrees, while the housing rent in core services decreased, indicating a continued decline in service inflation, but the spill - over effect of commodity inflation caused by tariffs still exists. [5][27]