Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: DecompGRU **Model Construction Idea**: The model improves information interaction between time-series and cross-sectional data by introducing two simple de-mean modules on the GRU baseline model[17] **Model Construction Process**: 1. The DecompGRU model is based on the GRU baseline architecture 2. Two de-mean modules are added to enhance the interaction between time-series and cross-sectional data 3. The model is trained using IC and weighted MSE loss functions[17] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates improved performance in capturing trends and cross-sectional interactions[17] Quantitative Models Backtesting Results - **DecompGRU TOP200 Portfolio**: - Cumulative absolute return: 38.64% - Excess return relative to WIND All A equal-weight index: 13.8% - Maximum drawdown: 10.08% - Weekly win rate: 64.29% - Monthly win rate: 100% - September absolute return: 4.19% - September excess return: 3.4%[11] - **ETF Rotation Portfolio**: - Cumulative absolute return: 21.54% - Excess return relative to WIND ETF index: -0.57% - Maximum drawdown: 7.82% - Weekly win rate: 65.52% - Monthly win rate: 66.67% - September absolute return: -1.68% - September excess return: -6.65%[13][14] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Sentiment Heat Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aggregates user behavior data (e.g., browsing, self-selection, and clicks) to measure sentiment heat at the stock, index, industry, and concept levels[18] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Individual stock heat is calculated as the sum of browsing, self-selection, and click counts 2. Normalize the heat value by dividing it by the total market heat on the same day and multiplying by 10,000 3. Aggregate normalized heat values to broader levels such as indices, industries, and concepts[18] **Factor Evaluation**: The sentiment heat factor serves as a proxy for market sentiment and helps identify mispricing due to attention constraints[18] Quantitative Factors Backtesting Results - **Broad Index Sentiment Heat Rotation Strategy**: - Annualized return since 2017: 8.74% - Maximum drawdown: 23.5% - 2025 portfolio return: 32% - Benchmark broad index equal-weight portfolio return: 30%[27] - **Concept Sentiment Heat TOP/BOTTOM Portfolios**: - BOTTOM portfolio annualized return: 15.71% - Maximum drawdown: 28.89% - 2025 BOTTOM portfolio return: 40%[41][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [25]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the increasing competition in core advanced technology sectors between China and the US, particularly in quantum computing and brain-computer interface technologies, which are expected to present significant investment opportunities over the next 5-10 years [6][7]. - Recent policy developments, including the signing of the "Technology Prosperity Agreement" between the US and UK, highlight a focus on advancing artificial intelligence infrastructure and next-generation quantum computing, which will drive the integration of quantum and AI technologies [7]. - The establishment of a quantum ecological alliance in China aims to enhance the development and application of quantum technologies across various sectors, including finance and governance [7][8]. - Breakthroughs in brain-computer interface technologies are accelerating clinical applications and the construction of an industrial ecosystem, with significant advancements reported by companies like Neuralink [7][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoint - The computer index decreased by 2.03% during the week of October 6-10, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.37%. The top gainers in the sector included Zhongwang Software (16.52%) and Pinming Technology (14.31%), while the largest decliners were Hengwei Technology (-16.23%) and Rongke Technology (-15.14%) [6][9]. Weekly Market Review - The report notes that the A-share market experienced a net outflow of 142.25 billion yuan, with the computer sector seeing a net outflow of 25.57 billion yuan during the same period [11]. Investment Recommendations and Related Stocks - The report suggests focusing on future technology industries, specifically: 1. Quantum Computing: Guoshun Quantum, Jingtai Holdings, Electric Security, and Sanwei Xinan 2. Brain-Computer Interface: Sanbo Brain Science, Chengyitong, Yanshan Technology, Xiangyu Medical, and Hanwei Technology [12].

Economic Indicators - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 6% year-on-year in September, up from 3% in August[2] - OECD composite leading indicator for G7 countries rose to 100.49 in September, compared to 100.42 in August[2] - Gold price increased by 2.7% to $3986.2 per ounce, while copper price rose by 1.9% to $10,765 per ton[2] Real Estate and Construction - Real estate transactions in 67 cities showed a year-on-year decline of 33% in early October, worsening from a 1.2% decline in September[2] - The average consumption of rebar was down 10% year-on-year as of October 9, compared to a 12% decline in the previous four weeks[3] - The land premium rate was at 4.83% as of October 5, up from 2.91% in September[13] Consumer Behavior - Subway passenger volume in 27 cities decreased by 4.8% year-on-year in early October, down from a 3.8% increase in September[3] - Express delivery volume growth slowed to 4.5% year-on-year as of October 5, down from 12% in the previous four weeks[3] Trade and External Demand - G7 OECD leading indicators suggest a recovery in external demand, with a rise to 100.49 in September[24] - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. fell by 19.7% year-on-year as of October 11, compared to a 3.4% increase the previous week[31] Price Trends - Oil prices fell, with WTI crude at $58.9 per barrel, down 3.3%, and Brent crude at $62.73 per barrel, down 2.8%[3] - Agricultural product prices generally declined, with vegetable prices down 1.2% and pork prices down 2.8%[46]

证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20251006-20251012） 聚焦：中国对美船舶港口征费反制，关注中美 推荐（维持） 摩擦背景下航运股投资机会 我们建议关注中美贸易摩擦航运股投资机会，油轮、干散运费有望受益于短期 混乱风险溢价，推荐中远海能、招商轮船、招商南油、海通发展，同时建议关 注中美谈判进展。 行业研究 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 交通运输 2025 年 10 月 13 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 ...

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report highlights the potential for a rebound in credit bonds, particularly focusing on the 2-3 year credit bonds which currently have a yield spread higher than the lowest point in 2024 by 4-15 basis points, indicating room for exploration [1][8][10] - The 4-5 year credit bonds have seen a widening of spreads, now higher than the 2024 average by 1-6 basis points, with yields ranging from 2.11% to 2.48%, suggesting a potential for value after adjustments in September [1][10] - The performance of bank perpetual bonds has been notable, with yields generally declining by 5-11 basis points and credit spreads narrowing by 1-8 basis points, presenting short-term trading opportunities [1][10] Group 2: Key Policies and Events - Tianan Insurance's inability to repay 5.3 billion yuan in capital supplementary bonds marks the first default by an insurance company in China, raising concerns about governance and operational pressures [2][12][15] - The report outlines the timeline of Tianan Insurance's operational challenges, including governance issues, regulatory takeover, asset divestiture, and eventual bond default, which reflects broader risks in the insurance sector [2][13][14][15] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the potential contagion risks among insurance companies, especially regarding the non-redemption risks of subordinate bonds, as seen with other companies this year [2][15] Group 3: Market Overview - Recent weeks have shown a general decline in credit bond yields, with a notable performance from high-grade short-term bonds, particularly in the context of rising market risk aversion due to U.S.-China tariff policies [5][8] - The report suggests that the market's risk appetite has slightly decreased compared to the third quarter, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts from the central bank, indicating a possible further decline in yields [5][9] - The report advises investors to seize opportunities for building positions in credit bonds during market adjustments, particularly in light of the recent tariff disruptions [5][9]

Group 1: Market Environment Differences - A-shares tend to drop more when they are more expensive, but they also rebound more significantly afterward, indicating a value-driven market[2] - U.S. stocks exhibit panic selling regardless of valuation, with the most expensive stocks rebounding the most during recovery phases, indicating a high-risk preference[2] - As of October 2, the dynamic P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500 were 14.1, 11.7, and 22.2 respectively, up from 12.2, 10.2, and 20.5 in April[11] Group 2: Tariff Environment Differences - The current tariff escalation has exceeded market expectations, but the market's psychological resilience is stronger than in April[3] - In April, there was less than a 15% probability that tariffs would be reduced, while now the market perceives a higher likelihood of a TACO deal[3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Environment Differences - The foreign trade environment in China is significantly better than in April, aided by a global interest rate cut cycle initiated by the Federal Reserve[4] - The global manufacturing PMI has rebounded since April, indicating improved expectations for industrial production cycles[4] Group 4: Macro Environment Differences - Both China and the U.S. face short-term macroeconomic pressures, but mid-term conditions are expected to improve compared to April[5] - In China, the shift from precautionary savings to normal deposits indicates a recovery in the private sector economy, with M1 growth continuing to rise[5] Group 5: Exchange Rate Environment Differences - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable, with increased flexibility viewed as beneficial for macroeconomic control[7] - For the USD, the risk of further depreciation is limited due to a high level of hedging by overseas investors and a neutral skew in options volatility[7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the US "reciprocal tariff" took effect on April 3, 2025, Sino-US trade frictions have occurred from time to time. The bond market usually prices tariff events quickly, and the impact amplitude and persistence may weaken as tariff frictions become more normalized. If subsequent Sino-US tariff games continue, bond yields may first decline rapidly and then fluctuate on a new platform [2]. - After the tariff event, risk appetite may cool slightly compared to the third quarter. If the equity market weakens, the stock-bond seesaw effect will support the bond market, and the market's expectation of the central bank's interest rate cut may fluctuate, promoting a phased easing of bond market sentiment. However, the bond market is still in a volatile market, and the space for a significant decline in yields is limited. It may fluctuate around a new range of 1.7%-1.75% in the short term [3][35]. - In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of Sino-US negotiations and the reaction of the equity market. The configuration disk does not need to replenish positions immediately but can gradually build positions during market adjustments. The trading disk can operate in small bands of 3-5bp. Credit bonds may have a supplementary increase, and attention should be paid to the coupon opportunities of general credit bonds and the short-term trading opportunities of perpetual bonds [4]. Summary by Directory I. Tariff Disturbances Recur, but This Time It's Different (1) Event Review: Sino-US Frictions Have Intensified Since October - On the evening of October 10, Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US starting from November 1, and export controls on all key software. Since October, frictions have emerged in multiple aspects such as ship fees, rare earth export controls, and anti-monopoly investigations. This event is similar to the April tariff event but different in the game situation, with stronger controllability and leaving room for subsequent negotiations [7][12]. (2) Bond Market Performance: Long-Term Pricing Is Fast, and Both Trading and Allocation Enter Actively - On the morning of October 11, bond yields declined rapidly, with both interest rate and credit bonds recovering. The yields of 10y and 30y treasury bonds and 10y CDB bonds declined by 3-5bp, outperforming the short-term. High-grade credit bond yields generally declined, with bonds over 5 years performing better, especially the perpetual bonds of banks leading the rise. Institutions such as funds and securities firms actively went long on interest rate bonds [7][17][22]. II. How Has Tariff Disturbance Affected the Market This Year? - Since the US "reciprocal tariff" took effect on April 3, Sino-US trade frictions have affected the bond market. By sorting out the performance of the 10-year treasury bond active bond at 9 key tariff points, it is found that the bond market usually prices tariff events quickly, and the impact amplitude and persistence may weaken as tariff frictions become more normalized. The yield range of the 10-year treasury bond active bond mostly fluctuates within 3BP, and the bond market usually completes pricing within 4 trading days [2][29][34]. III. The Bond Market's Short-Term Sentiment Eases, and Attention Should Be Paid to Gradually Adding Positions During Fluctuations - After the tariff event, bond yields may still have a small downward space, but the bond market is still in a volatile market, and the space for a significant decline in yields is limited. It may fluctuate around a new range of 1.7%-1.75% in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of Sino-US negotiations and the reaction of the equity market. Different investment strategies are proposed for different types of investors, and credit bonds may have a supplementary increase [3][35][40]. IV. Review of the Interest Rate Bond Market: The Stock Market's Phased Volatility and the Escalation of Tariff Frictions Have Eased Bond Market Sentiment (1) Funding Situation: The Central Bank's OMO Has Significantly Net Recovered, and the Funding Situation Is Balanced and Loose - The central bank's OMO has significantly net recovered funds, but the overall funding situation is balanced and loose. DR001 and DR007 weighted prices have declined, and the funding sentiment index has been relatively stable [11][50][51]. (2) Primary Issuance: The Net Financing of Treasury Bonds, Policy Financial Bonds, and Interbank Certificates of Deposit Has Increased, While the Net Financing of Local Bonds Has Decreased - The net financing of treasury bonds, policy financial bonds, and interbank certificates of deposit has increased, while the net financing of local bonds has decreased [57][59][61]. (3) Benchmark Changes: The Term Spreads of Treasury Bonds and CDB Bonds Have Both Narrowed - The short-term yields of treasury bonds and CDB bonds have declined, and the long-term yields have declined more significantly, resulting in a narrowing of the term spreads [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes and further management of the rare earth industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the impact of trade tariff concerns on gold's safe-haven demand, while silver prices are accelerating due to spot market shortages and warehouse squeezes [7]. - The rare earth industry is seeing enhanced management policies, ensuring the strategic security of China's rare earth industry [7]. - The cobalt market is expected to experience upward price pressure due to the announced export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [7]. Industry Overview - **Industrial Metals**: The report notes that trade tariff concerns are increasing gold's safe-haven demand, with silver prices rising due to market shortages. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease in holdings by 2.3 tons to 1013.44 tons, while iShares Silver ETF increased by 35.28 tons to 15443.76 tons [7]. - **Rare Earths**: Recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earth materials are expected to enhance the management of the industry, ensuring strategic security [7]. - **Cobalt**: The Democratic Republic of Congo's export quota policy is likely to support cobalt prices, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt rising by 4.8% to 349,500 CNY/ton [9]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector such as Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Shandong Gold, as well as silver companies like Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources [2]. - For cobalt, companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Tengyuan Cobalt are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of rising cobalt prices [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Season - beginning deposit outflows and pre - season end asset allocation by wealth management products limit the pricing restoration of certificates of deposit (CDs). The supply side may still have demand due to potential deposit losses and large CD maturities from November to December. The demand side is restricted by the "front - running" of wealth management products. However, with the central bank's supportive operations, liquidity is expected to remain stable and loose in the fourth quarter, which may protect against CD yield increases. If policy rates remain unchanged, 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank CDs may fluctuate in a narrow range around 1.65% [2][44]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply: Net financing is slightly negative, and the term structure is compressed - In the past two weeks (September 29 - October 12), the CD issuance scale was 25.456 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 4.923 billion yuan (compared to - 18.879 billion yuan from September 22 - September 28). The proportion of state - owned banks' issuance decreased from 38% to 6%, while that of joint - stock banks increased from 25% to 46%. The proportion of 1 - year CD issuance dropped from 29% to 8%, and the weighted issuance term narrowed to 5.20 months (from 7.16 months). Next week (October 13 - October 19), the maturity scale will increase to 50.487 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 20.108 billion yuan [2][5]. 3.2 Demand: Money market funds are the main secondary - market allocators, and the primary - market subscription rate has declined overall - In the secondary market, money market funds and other products are the main allocators, with weekly net purchases of 53.756 billion yuan and 26.527 billion yuan respectively. The net sales of city commercial banks decreased from 136.865 billion yuan to 60.859 billion yuan. In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) dropped to around 82% [2]. 3.3 Valuation: The primary - market CD pricing has slightly decreased, and the secondary - market yields have declined - The weighted issuance rate of 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank CDs slightly dropped to around 1.66%. Specifically, the 1 - month variety decreased by 17bp, while the 3 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year varieties decreased by 3bp, and the 6 - month variety decreased by 2bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks decreased by 1bp, at the 15% historical quantile. The 1 - year credit spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 6.14BP to 11.43BP, at around the 17% quantile, while that between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 11.21BP to 6.00BP, close to the 7% quantile. In the secondary market, the yields of AAA - rated CDs generally declined, with the 1 - month variety down 17bp, the 3 - month and 1 - year down 2bp, and the 6 - month and 9 - month down 3bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs remained at the 24% historical quantile [2][15]. 3.4 Comparison: The post - quarter - end CD restoration is relatively limited - After the quarter - end, the CD restoration was relatively limited, and the spread between medium - short - term notes and CDs significantly compressed. The spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated CD yield and the 15 - day moving average of DR007 narrowed from 17.72BP to 14.37BP; the spread with R007:15DMA narrowed from 14.34BP to 7.21BP. The 1 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.84bp, and the spread between CDs and treasury bonds narrowed from 30.25BP to 28.84BP, with the quantile dropping to around 13%. The spread between CDs and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 6.31BP to 4.52BP, with the quantile dropping to 0%. Additionally, the spread between AAA - rated medium - short - term notes and CDs narrowed from 12.83BP to 7.89BP, and the quantile dropped to 36% [2][29].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略周报】 把握特朗普 TACO 交易——策略周聚焦 中美贸易摩擦再启，本轮贸易摩擦与 4 月相比异同点 历史经验来看，贸易摩擦对于市场定价的分子端、即经济通胀和增长的中长期 影响相对有限，对股价的影响更多来自于分母端风险偏好的冲击。所以相比于 25/4 当时恐慌回撤后的 V 型反弹，本轮摩擦背景下的市场可能更多体现为近 半年全球风险资产上涨后的顺势获利了结行为，故我们判断回调的幅度和持续 时间都会小于 25/4。 短期应对：国家队行为观察+贸易谈判事件跟踪。 中期应对：国内政策以我为主，聚焦内需、价格低位问题，反内卷、十五五依 旧是政策重心。 贸易摩擦升级催化高低切与再平衡的必要性 4 月至今市场持续上扬，贸易摩擦或恰好成为结构再平衡的催化事件，从结构 再平衡的必要性来看：1）高低切信号已现，当前行业分化程度达 60%，分化 程度为 2010 以来 94%分位，信号较强；2）领涨&滞涨行业量价分化加大：看 25/4 以来主要领涨行业（通信、有色、电子、电新）和滞涨行业（家电、银行、 食饮）量价分化情况显著，领涨行业涨幅平均 51%，而滞涨行业平均 0%，领 涨&滞涨行业内部成交额机 ...