Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of Xinjiang in the context of national policies, highlighting its transition from a geographical hinterland to a front-line gateway under the Belt and Road Initiative, which enhances its geopolitical advantages [7][8] - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is positioned to thrive due to favorable external conditions, including rising coal prices and a shift towards resource-based industrial policies [7][8] - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes: coal chemical investments and state-owned enterprise reforms in Xinjiang [11] Xinjiang Index Situation - The Xinjiang index stands at 105.24, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.66%, while the coal chemical investment index is at 102.1, up 2.72% [14] - The top three performing companies this week include Zhongtai Co., Ltd. (+15.00%), Xinyan Co., Ltd. (+12.50%), and Guanghui Logistics (+9.24%) [14] Key Data Tracking - The report provides key pricing data, indicating that Q5000 mixed coal in Qitai County is priced at 100 yuan/ton, down 16.67% from the previous week, while Q5200 mixed coal in Balikun remains stable at 197 yuan/ton [19] - In April 2025, the coal railway dispatch volume from state-owned key coal mines was 3.35 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.76%, while the raw coal production in Xinjiang reached 39.239 million tons, an increase of 8.49% year-on-year [19] Key News and Company Announcements - Xinjiang's railway freight rates have been reduced again, with a maximum decrease of 30%, primarily affecting coal transportation routes from Xinjiang to the southwest [34] - The report mentions significant coal chemical projects in Xinjiang, including a 6 million tons/year coal-based methanol project and a 1.5 million tons/year coal-to-oil demonstration project, both of which are progressing [37][41] Overview of Target Companies - The report identifies several companies to watch in the coal chemical sector, including Tebian Electric Apparatus, Baofeng Energy, Guanghui Energy, and Hubei Yihua, which are involved in coal mining and energy conversion [11][12] - Companies providing services to coal chemical projects, such as Xuefeng Technology and Guangdong Hongda, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [12]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The Gold Implied Order Reconstruction Index (GIORI) has reached its highest level since the 1970s, indicating strong market expectations for a global order reconstruction[2] - The surge in gold prices cannot be fully explained by traditional factors such as real interest rates, inflation expectations, and the US dollar index, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment towards geopolitical risks and financial system pressures[2][14] - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, with the scale reaching a 50-year high from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a global trend towards diversifying monetary systems[15] Group 2: US Economic Conditions - The US dollar index has declined significantly, dropping to 99.2, its lowest level in nearly three years, with an 8.5% decrease since the beginning of the year[19] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill passed by the US House of Representatives is expected to exacerbate the debt-inflation cycle, potentially weakening dollar assets in the medium to long term[19][18] - The US debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to soar to between 134% and 149% by 2035 due to the largest debt ceiling increase in history, amounting to $4 trillion[19] Group 3: Chinese Economic Strategy - China has adopted a dual expansionary policy approach, focusing on both fiscal and monetary measures to stabilize the economy, contrasting with the US's policy challenges[20] - The Chinese stock market is expected to outperform the bond market during the current interest rate reduction cycle, driven by monetary easing and economic recovery[20] - China's asset prices are anticipated to stabilize and gain upward momentum as the economy gradually recovers and inflation returns[20] Group 4: Market Strategies - The recommended investment strategy is a "barbell" approach, combining dividend stocks and small-cap growth stocks, as inflation has not yet returned[22][23] - The bond market is expected to experience volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.7%[29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [63]. Core Insights - The downstream installation rush has ended, leading to a weak price trend across the industry chain. The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules are under pressure due to reduced downstream demand and inventory adjustments [9][10]. - Polysilicon prices remain stable, with N-type re-investment material averaging 37,500 CNY/ton and N-type granular silicon at 34,500 CNY/ton, both unchanged week-on-week. The price trend for polysilicon is expected to be determined by new orders in the upcoming period [9][10]. - The overall operating rate of silicon wafer manufacturers is around 53%, with companies actively reducing production to maintain prices. Profitability for silicon wafer manufacturers is under pressure, and the downward price space is limited [9]. - Battery cell prices are generally declining, with a production forecast of 56-57 GW in June, representing a month-on-month decrease of approximately 6% [9][10]. - The market for modules is uncertain, with prices showing fluctuations due to reduced downstream orders and inventory adjustments following a significant installation rush in April and May [9][10]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has decreased, with 3.2mm coated glass priced at 20.50 CNY/m² and 2.0mm coated glass at 12.50 CNY/m², both down by 0.5 CNY/m² week-on-week [10][47]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report indicates a weak price trend in the photovoltaic industry chain due to the end of the installation rush and reduced downstream demand [9][10]. Market Performance - The overall industry index has shown a decline of 1.6% over the past month and 27.6% over the past six months [4]. - The electric equipment industry index increased by 1.38% this week, while the photovoltaic equipment sector rose by 1.10% [12][19]. Price Trends - Polysilicon prices remain stable, with no significant changes reported [37][38]. - The average prices for silicon wafers and battery cells have shown slight declines, reflecting market adjustments [40][41]. - Photovoltaic glass prices have decreased, indicating a potential oversupply situation [10][47]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in new technology developments, such as BC mass production and silver reduction technologies, as well as inverter manufacturers benefiting from emerging market demands [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The disclosure rhythm of convertible bond ratings has improved compared to the same period in 2024, but it is still slightly behind the average progress in the first week of June in previous years. The downgraded convertible bonds include Dongshi, Zhongzhuang Zhuan 2, etc. [5][8] - In June, attention should be paid to the momentum of the equity market, and the tariff risk may be controllable. Under the assumption of a relatively controllable risk environment, June may be a starting point for a small - scale market repair. The probability of the monthly increase of the CSI Convertible Bond Index in June since 2017 is over 60%. After the Sino - US leaders' call, the risk preference may be restored, and the manufacturing and technology sectors in the equity market are dominant, with the valuation of convertible bonds also rising. [5][13] - The industry rotation in the convertible bond market may be weaker than that in the equity market. If the equity market maintains a rapid rotation, attention can be paid to the repair opportunities of low - level convertible bonds. [5][17][18] - The valuation of near - maturity convertible bonds has significantly回调. In the future, attention can be paid to the volatility of the underlying stocks. Incorporating the "20 - day volatility of the underlying stock" into the factor consideration, a three - factor yield surface of price change - underlying stock volatility - double - low can be constructed. [5][19] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Rating Disclosure Process and Market Trend - The disclosure progress of convertible bond ratings is still slow. As of June 6, 2025, the disclosure progress is about 22.3%, with some lag compared to the average progress in previous years, but an improvement compared to 2024. [5][8] - In June, focus on the equity market. The tariff risk may be controllable, and the market may have a small - scale repair. The convertible bond market has seen an increase in valuation, with the manufacturing and technology sectors in the equity market performing well. [5][13] 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Weekly Market Conditions - Last week, major stock indices rose, and the convertible bond market followed. There are 476 issued and unexpired convertible bonds with a balance of 67.3552 billion yuan. The Hengshuai Convertible Bond has not been listed, and the Luwei Convertible Bond will be issued online on June 11. [24] - In the equity market, most industries in the Shenwan primary industry index rose, with communication, non - ferrous metals, etc. leading the gains. In the convertible bond market, most also rose, with communication, environmental protection, etc. leading the gains. [26] - In terms of popular concepts, most concepts rose, with optical communication, high - speed copper connection, etc. leading the gains. [26] 3.2.2 Valuation Performance - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 119.88 yuan, up 1.06% from the previous Friday. Only the conversion premium rates of high - rated and large - scale convertible bonds increased, with the AAA - rated rising 0.2 pct and those over 5 billion yuan rising 0.23 pct. [32] 3.3 Terms and Supply 3.3.1 Terms - As of June 6, no convertible bond announced redemption, but Hangyin Convertible Bond announced redemption arrangements. Four convertible bonds announced no downward revision, and seven are expected to trigger downward revision. [2][48] 3.3.2 Primary Market - Last week, there was no new convertible bond listing or issuance, and the Hengshuai Convertible Bond will be issued this week. [3][50][51] - There was no new board proposal, no new shareholder meeting approval, one new approval from the issuance review committee, and no new CSRC approval, compared to - 1, + 0, + 0, - 2 respectively from the same period last year. As of June 6, 10 listed companies have obtained approval for convertible bond issuance, with a planned issuance scale of 15.885 billion yuan, and 5 companies have passed the issuance review committee, with a total scale of 3.678 billion yuan. [3][51][58]

证 券 研 究 报 告 公募风格偏向价值，散户资金净流入重回低位 ——投资者温度计第28期 2025年6月9日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 • 上周市场小幅上行，市场热点相对杂乱之下，自媒体热度较为平淡。 • 公募抱团趋势增强，风格偏向价值，行业偏向周期、金融；24/9/18至今公募重仓股三成领涨，行业集中于电子、 医药、计算机等。 • 最近一周以小单衡量的沪深两市A股散户资金净流入370.0亿元，较前值减少409.0亿元，处过去五年5.8%分位， 净流入规模重回低位仅略高于春节期间；融资资金净流入71.9亿元，较上周增加72.9亿元。 1.1、自媒体：热度持续下降 证 券 研 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the humanoid robot industry as "Recommended," expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [17]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing continuous development with new technologies being iterated and the mass production process accelerating. The report suggests focusing on companies involved in various components such as actuators, reducers, sensors, motors, and equipment [4]. Industry Basic Data - The humanoid robot industry consists of 301 listed companies with a total market value of 49,118.76 billion and a circulating market value of 42,830.18 billion [1]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the humanoid robot industry over the past month is 1.5%, with a 6-month performance of -8.4% and a 12-month performance of 7.6%. The relative performance shows a decline of 0.2% over the past month and 5.9% over the past 6 months [2]. Related Research Reports - The report references several related studies, including a monthly data tracking report on the wind power industry and a report on the electric vehicle industry, indicating ongoing research and interest in related sectors [4]. Recent Developments - Notable events include the release of a humanoid robot by PepsiCo, advancements in flexible tactile sensors by Fulei New Materials, and the bankruptcy announcement of Aldebaran, highlighting both innovation and challenges within the industry [4].

Group 1: Overview of Overseas Business in US Stocks - Approximately 30% of revenue for S&P 500 companies comes from overseas, while small companies (represented by Russell 2000) have about 20%[2] - Technology (51%), materials (38%), healthcare (35%), and communications (34%) have the highest exposure to overseas business[2] - S&P 500 companies generally have a higher overseas revenue share and profit margins compared to domestic operations, with Apple having 57% of its revenue from overseas and a profit margin of 42%[2] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The technology sector has the largest overseas revenue share, exceeding 50%, while materials, healthcare, and communications also show significant overseas revenue contributions[4] - Major companies in the technology sector, such as Apple (57%) and Nvidia (56%), have overseas revenue shares above the industry average of 51%[5] - In the communications sector, companies like Alphabet (46%) and Meta (56%) also exceed the industry average of 34% for overseas revenue[5] Group 3: Growth and Profitability Trends - Non-US revenue growth for S&P 500 companies is generally higher than total revenue growth, indicating a reliance on overseas markets[10] - The communications sector shows the highest growth in overseas revenue, consistently outpacing total revenue growth since 2017[10] - Profit margins for overseas operations in certain sectors, such as consumer staples and technology, are higher than domestic margins, with an average overseas profit margin of 33% for technology[11] Group 4: China Market Dependency - Among S&P 500 companies disclosing Chinese revenue, technology and communications sectors have a higher dependency, with 25% of their revenue coming from China, above the overall average of 17%[4] - Recent trends show that revenue growth from China for these sectors has slowed compared to overall growth, potentially due to US restrictions on technology exports to China[4]

Group 1: Overview of Overseas Business in US Stocks - Approximately 30% of non-US revenue in the S&P 500 index, while small enterprises (represented by Russell 2000) have about 20%[3] - Technology (51%), Materials (38%), Healthcare (35%), and Communications (34%) have the highest overseas revenue exposure[4] - S&P 500 companies generally have higher overseas revenue ratios and profit margins compared to domestic operations, e.g., Apple’s overseas revenue is 57% with a profit margin of 42%[22] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - Technology and Communications sectors account for nearly half of the S&P 500 market capitalization, indicating high reliance on overseas business[4] - Among the top five companies in the S&P 500, over half have overseas business ratios exceeding their industry averages[5] - Asian and European markets contribute significantly to overseas revenue, with Asia at 45% and Europe at 40%[6] Group 3: Growth and Profitability - Non-US revenue growth is generally higher than total revenue growth for S&P 500 companies, indicating a greater reliance on overseas markets[8] - Certain industries, such as Consumer Staples and Technology, show higher profit margins for overseas operations compared to domestic ones, e.g., Consumer Staples at 37%[9] - Companies like Apple and Amazon have overseas profit margins that surpass their domestic margins, highlighting the profitability of international operations[60] Group 4: China Market Dependency - For S&P 500 companies disclosing Chinese business, Technology and Communications sectors have a higher revenue share from China (25.1%) compared to the overall average (16.5%)[64] - Recent trends show that revenue growth from China for these sectors has lagged behind overall growth, possibly due to US restrictions on technology[64]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 如何观察"以旧换新"的速度？ ❖ 以旧换新：4 月中旬以来在提速 1、数据与方法：基于商务部不定期公布的 5 大类消费品（汽车、家电、电动 车、家装厨卫、数码）以旧换新进度数据，可计算某个时间段内的日均换新数 量，我们以此观察消费品换新的速度。 2、近期消费品换新速度如何？ 5 月，消费品换新或在提速，结构上：汽车下、 家电升、电动车平。 3、物价：海外大宗品价格明显反弹，黄金、原油、铜均上涨。RJ/CRB 商品 价格指数上涨 3.6%；COMEX 黄金收于 3308.2 美金/盎司，上涨 0.6%；LME 三个月铜价上涨 1.6%；美油、布油分别上涨 6.2%、4%。 （二）景气向下 1）汽车，有所放缓，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 3.8 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 3.9 万台；2024 年 9-12 月（2024.8.23~2024.12.31）日均 4.7 万台。 2）家电，有所提速，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 82.9 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 63 万台；受数据限制，观察 2024 年 10- ...

Group 1: Stablecoin Market Impact - The total market capitalization of stablecoins exceeded $200 billion by March 2025, surpassing the holdings of major foreign investors like China in short-term U.S. securities[2] - Stablecoins, particularly Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), significantly influence the short-term debt market, purchasing nearly $40 billion in U.S. Treasury securities in 2024[2] - A net inflow of $3.5 billion in stablecoins can lead to a decrease of approximately 2-2.5 basis points in the 3-month Treasury yield within 10 days[1] Group 2: Empirical Findings - The study found that a $3.5 billion inflow of stablecoins correlates with a decline in the 3-month Treasury yield of up to 25 basis points over 30 days[3] - The impact of stablecoin outflows on Treasury yields is more pronounced, with a $3.5 billion outflow resulting in an increase of approximately 6-8 basis points[1] - USDT contributes about -1.54 basis points to the yield impact, accounting for 70% of the total effect, while USDC contributes around 19%[4] Group 3: Policy Implications - The rapid expansion of the stablecoin market may significantly lower short-term Treasury yields, potentially disrupting the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy transmission[5] - Regulatory measures for standardized and transparent reserve reporting are crucial to mitigate systemic risks associated with concentrated Treasury holdings by stablecoins[5] - The strong demand for Treasuries from stablecoins could exacerbate the "safe asset scarcity" issue faced by non-bank financial institutions, affecting liquidity premiums[5]