机械设备 2025 年 04 月 20 日 行 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 机械设备 3C 设备周观点：苹果调整供应链布局，持续关注 果链的超跌机会 苹果调整供应链布局，关注果链的超跌机会 根据集微网报道，受到美国总统川普关税政策的影响，苹果正在 调整供应链布局。外媒 MacMagazine 报导，鸿海配合调整苹果 iPhone 供应链布局，鸿海巴西圣保罗厂开始出货 iPhone 16e。 此前受关税消息影响，A 股果链公司大幅下跌。我们认为，此前 关税对果链公司的影响被高估，苹果对供应商的要求极为严格，国内 果链公司具备不可替代性。对于设备企业来说，苹果或将更多的资源 投向有利于降本提效的柔性自动化、3D 打印等新设备和新工艺；或者 加速推广高端机型、折叠屏、眼镜等新产品，也有利于相关产线的新 建和升级。 华为发布智能眼镜 2 钛空版 4 月 16 日，华为智能眼镜 2 钛空圆框光学镜在鸿蒙智家及智能眼 镜新品"抢鲜看"发布会上发布。钛空圆框光学镜用的是圆形钛金属 镜框，配备小艺翻译、头部控制等功能，支持面对面翻译、同声传译、 全天候智慧播报，续航为 11 小时，售价 2299 元 华福证券 国产手 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the TMT sector has collectively shown "bottoming" signals, with 256 indices indicating a bottoming pattern, primarily within the TMT sector, while 19 indices have broken out, mainly in the downstream consumption sector, particularly in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-potential opportunities and warning of peak signals, focusing on quantitative screening of four patterns and constructing trading heat indicators to track popular themes [9][12]. - The trading heat for humanoid robots has decreased to 45%, with the closing price of Changsheng Bearing being 9.4% below its 60-day moving average, while the trading heat for Deepseek has dropped to 46%, with Daily Interaction's closing price being 17.6% below its 60-day moving average [4][20]. Group 2 - The report indicates that the thematic investment data tracking system will be regularly updated to provide investors with objective references for capturing market trends [3][9]. - The report notes that the majority of the 256 indices showing a bottoming pattern are concentrated in the TMT sector, suggesting potential recovery opportunities in this area [12]. - The report provides insights into the adjustment levels of leading stocks corresponding to the themes being monitored, indicating a need for caution as trading heat declines [20].

在鸿蒙智行新品发布会上，家庭智慧旗舰 SUV 问界 M8 发布，包 括大五座和享六座两个版本，上市搭载华为 ADS 3.3 高阶智能驾驶系 统，根据华为规划将在 2025 年三季度全系升级 Huawei ADS 4， 价格带覆盖 35.98~44.98 万元起。同时享界 S9 增程版发布，售价 30.98 万元起，同样上市即搭载华为 ADS 3.3 高阶智能驾驶系统。另外继问 界、智界、享界、尊界之后，华为与上汽集团正式发布"SAIC 尚界" 品牌，首期投入 60 亿元，打造超 5000 人尚界团队，以及专属超级工 厂。华为常务董事、终端 BG 董事长余承东表示，尚界品牌首款车型 力争于 2025 年秋季上市。 华为智能眼镜 2 售价 2299 元，支持同声传译续航达 11 小时 在鸿蒙智家及智能眼镜新品"抢先看"活动中，华为发布智能眼 镜 2—钛空圆框光学镜。其配备小艺翻译、头部控制等功能，支持面对 面翻译、同声传译、全天候智慧播报等，售价 2299 元。该款智能眼镜 采用钛金属打造，并在圆形钛金属镜框上采用"鸢尾"雕花设计；在 智慧功能方面，该款智能眼镜的小艺翻译功能支持面对面翻译和同声 传译，适用于不同 ...

行 业 研 究 华福证券 医药生物 2025 年 04 月 20 日 医药生物 再论康弘药业：创新平台价值需要重估 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 行情回顾：本周（2025 年 4 月 14 日- 2025 年 4 月 18 日）中信医药指 数下跌 0.4%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.0pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 22 位；2025 年初至今中信医药生物板块指数下跌 1.4%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.7pct，在中信行业分类中排名第 13 位。本周涨幅前五的个股为：双成药 业（+56.38%）、立方制药（+47.07%）、舒泰神（+30.27%）、悦康药业 （+21.40%）、东诚药业（+16.90%）。 证 券 研 究 报 告 本周市场复盘及中短期投资思考：本周 AH 两市均跑输大盘，本周持 续关税影响后的修复行情，医药板块此前表现强势，本周相对跑输，成交 量占比持续下降。不过仍有热点，一方面是本周礼来公司宣布其每日口服 GLP-1 药物 Orforglipron，针对 2 型糖尿病成人患者实现积极的 3 期试验结 果带动了减肥药主题大涨（如金凯生科、德源药业等）、另一方面是创新 药主题， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing continuous expansion in photovoltaic installations and maintains stable dividends, with an active and comprehensive plan for 2025 [3] - The company's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of 1.933 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.89% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 218 million yuan, down 17.59% year-on-year [4] - The company's total installed capacity reached 4.1056 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, with hydropower accounting for 3.2335 million kilowatts and photovoltaic power accounting for 872,100 kilowatts [5] - The average on-grid electricity price for hydropower in 2024 was 0.3052 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a decline of 3.6% year-on-year [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.06 yuan per share for 2024, maintaining a stable dividend level [6] - The company is actively planning for green electricity trading in 2025, with expected related transactions amounting to 50 million yuan [6] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 1.933 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -2.9% [9] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 218 million yuan, with a growth rate of -17.6% [9] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.51 yuan [9] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is projected at 30.2 [9] - The company anticipates net profits of 405 million yuan, 423 million yuan, and 446 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.2, 15.6, and 14.8 [7]

Group 1 - The artificial joint orthopedic market is experiencing steady growth, with the market size in China reaching approximately 45 billion RMB in 2022 and projected to exceed 180 billion RMB by 2030, driven by demographic changes and increased prevalence of joint diseases [3][4]. - The aging population in China is a significant factor for market growth, with the proportion of individuals aged 65 and above expected to rise from 10.5% in 2015 to 15.64% in 2024, leading to increased demand for joint surgeries and related products [4]. - The introduction of centralized procurement policies has led to a significant increase in the domestic market share of Chinese brands, with local brands capturing 68% of the market after two rounds of procurement, compared to over 70% held by foreign brands before [8][12]. Group 2 - Major domestic companies in the artificial joint sector include Weigao Orthopedics, Aikang Medical, and Chunzhi Medical, all of which have faced challenges due to procurement policies but are adapting by focusing on innovation and market share expansion [13][18]. - The average prices for hip and knee joints have drastically decreased due to centralized procurement, with hip joint prices dropping from 35,000 RMB to around 7,000 RMB, and knee joints from 32,000 RMB to 5,000 RMB, resulting in an average price reduction of 82% [12]. - Despite short-term impacts on revenue and profit margins due to procurement policies, the long-term strategy of "price for volume" is expected to help companies expand market share and drive domestic replacement of imported products [18][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [23]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 750 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 21 million yuan, down 63.7% year-on-year [3][4]. - The domestic market is expected to see steady growth in 2025, driven by improved bidding activities and the introduction of new products [4][6]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and marketing efforts, which has led to increased expenses, impacting short-term profitability [6][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, domestic revenue reached 586 million yuan (up 4% year-on-year), while overseas revenue was 160 million yuan (up 43% year-on-year), showcasing strong growth in international markets [5]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 821 million yuan in 2025, 1.094 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.462 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits projected at 88 million yuan, 124 million yuan, and 191 million yuan respectively [7][8]. - The sales expense ratio for 2024 is projected at 33.4%, while the management expense ratio is expected to be 14.5% [6]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The introduction of high-end products like the AQ-3004K ultra-high-definition endoscope is expected to drive sales growth in tier-three hospitals [7]. - The company has launched several new products, including electronic percutaneous cholangioscopes and electronic bladder scopes, which are anticipated to contribute to revenue recovery as bidding activities improve [7][8]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the overall domestic bidding environment is expected to improve, which will support the company's revenue growth in the coming years [5][6]. - The company is positioned as a leading domestic player in the flexible endoscope market, with innovative products that enhance clinical capabilities [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [21]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.15 billion in 2024, a slight increase of 0.20% year-on-year, with a net profit of 350 million, reflecting a growth of 5.1% year-on-year [3]. - The proportion of reagents in the company's revenue has increased, contributing to a gross margin rise to 67%, up by 1.4 percentage points [3]. - The international market has shown robust growth, with international revenue reaching 370 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the in vitro diagnostics segment generated 910 million in revenue, a 10% increase year-on-year, while the rehabilitation segment saw a decline in revenue to 220 million, down by 28% [3]. - The company has increased its R&D expenditure to 17.6% of revenue, up by 2.7 percentage points, focusing on innovative technologies and AI integration [4]. - The company expects revenue growth of 11%, 16%, and 17% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected to grow by 12%, 15%, and 16% in the same years [4][5]. Market Expansion and Product Development - The company plans to continue launching new products, including the LifoLas8000 and LifoLas9000 systems, which are expected to drive reagent sales [4]. - The international market expansion strategy includes enhancing sales and service capabilities across six regions: Russian-speaking countries, Europe, the Americas, the Middle East and Africa, and Asia-Pacific [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a financial forecast with expected revenues of 1.27 billion, 1.47 billion, and 1.73 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, alongside net profits of 390 million, 440 million, and 510 million for the same years [5][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 0.90, 1.03, and 1.20 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a decreasing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 15.2 in 2025 to 11.4 in 2027 [5][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [19] Core Views - The company's overall performance in 2024 is under pressure due to reduced hospital procurement activities and increased strategic investments, leading to a 5% year-on-year decline in revenue. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to drop by 68.7% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is focusing on increasing R&D and marketing investments, with a significant rise in management and sales expense ratios, indicating a commitment to high-end product promotion and innovation [3] - The introduction of high-end ultrasound and endoscope products is anticipated to drive growth in 2025, with expectations of a recovery in procurement activities [4][3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.01 billion, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 142 million, down 68.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 615 million, a decline of 5.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 33.41 million, down 75% year-on-year [2][3] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2026 to be 401 million, 485 million, and 612 million respectively, indicating a recovery trend [4][6] - The revenue growth rate is projected to rebound to 21% in 2025 and maintain a growth rate of 20% in the following years [6] Product and Market Development - The company has launched several high-end products in 2024, including the S80 and P80 ultrasound machines, and the HD-580 series endoscope platform, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2025 [4][3] - The domestic revenue from tier-three hospitals has reached a peak, while international revenue has shown a 3% increase, indicating successful market penetration and brand influence [4][3] Strategic Outlook - The company maintains a unique competitive advantage in minimally invasive procedures and is well-positioned for performance improvement once procurement policies are implemented and market conditions stabilize [4][3]

策 华福证券 2025 年 04 月 17 日 略 研 究 消费与医疗周报——CT 球管制造：突破不断， 国产化势在必行 投资要点： 近期观点 1、医药指数本周（4.7-4.11）关注的 6 个子行业均录得负收益， 表现不佳。 策 略 定 期 报 告 2、商务部于 2025 年 4 月 4 日发布第 19 号、第 20 号公告，决定 对原产于美国、印度的进口相关医用 CT 球管发起反倾销立案调查，同 时对进口医用 CT 球管进行产业竞争力调查。CT 球管是 CT 设备的核 心部件，对图像质量影响极大，生产难度高。我国 CT 球管市场存在巨 大需求，但长期依赖进口。近年来，我国企业在 CT 球管制造技术上取 得突破，国产替代进程加速。智束科技、微睿科技、昆山医源等企业 在技术研发和市场推广方面取得了显著成果，推动了国产 CT 球管向高 端化发展。此次反倾销调查及产业竞争力调查，将为国产 CT 球管产业 的发展提供重要机遇，有助于提升我国在该领域的自主可控能力。 团队成员 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、乱云飞渡仍从容：关税反击与稳市决心——" ...