Trade Trends - In June, U.S. imports showed a low-to-high trend, with container arrivals indicating imports below the same period last year[3] - Imports from China have seen a mild recovery but remain significantly lower than the 2023-24 period, while imports from Vietnam and other countries have accelerated[3] - The forecast for container arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles indicates a significant rebound in the last two weeks of June, likely due to preemptive imports before the tariff suspension ends on July 9[3] Consumer Behavior - U.S. consumer spending on goods and services has continued to slow, with hotel occupancy rates significantly below seasonal averages since mid-June[4] - Retail sales have been affected by a slowdown in discretionary spending, with the Redbook weekly retail index showing a decline in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates[4] Corporate Investment - Corporate capital expenditure intentions have weakened, with some regional Federal Reserve surveys indicating a decline in investment sentiment[4] - Manufacturing output has shown marginal recovery, but overall inventory levels are declining, with soft data indicating a downward trend[4] Labor Market - The labor market has cooled, with a slight increase in layoffs and a rise in initial and continuing unemployment claims since late May[4] - Job openings have continued to decline, indicating a slowdown in hiring intentions among companies[4] Inflation and Financial Conditions - Market inflation expectations remain stable, with 5-year and 10-year inflation expectations at approximately 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively[5] - Supermarket prices have continued to rise, reflecting ongoing tariff impacts, with imported goods prices increasing by about 1% and domestic goods by 0.3% since April[5] - Financial conditions have loosened further, as indicated by Bloomberg's financial conditions index and corporate bond spreads[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [6] Core Views - The coal market is expected to see a rebound in prices driven by seasonal demand, with recent positive changes in port coal prices and structural shortages supporting this trend [2] - The report highlights the potential for increased coal demand due to rising temperatures and declining hydropower output, which may lead to higher thermal power consumption [3] - A reduction in coal imports is contributing to a marginal contraction in supply, further supporting the coal market [4] Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of June 25, the prices for CCI5500/5000/4500 thermal coal have increased by 2/10/9 RMB per ton, reaching 617/546/481 RMB per ton respectively [2] - The average daily consumption of thermal coal in 25 provinces has risen by 2.1% and 5.2% year-on-year and month-on-month respectively [3] Demand Drivers - The report notes a 14.3% year-on-year decline in hydropower generation in May, while thermal power generation has turned positive with a growth rate of 1.2% [3] - The average temperature in major cities has increased by 15.7% from May to June, leading to a rise in electricity demand [3] Supply Dynamics - Coal imports for the first five months of 2024 reached 190 million tons, a decrease of 8.0% year-on-year, with Indonesian coal imports dropping significantly [4] - The report indicates that domestic coal production has contracted due to increased safety and environmental inspections, as well as maintenance shutdowns at some mines [2] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends investing in leading coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and China Coal Energy, which are expected to benefit from the seasonal rebound in thermal coal prices [2][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the biopharmaceutical industry [6] Core Insights - The participation of domestic innovative drugs in the ASCO conference has increased, with approximately 67 domestic innovative drug studies included in oral presentations, a 35% increase from 2024, accounting for about 20% of all clinical results [1] - Several domestic new drugs, such as IBI363, MRG003, and others, have shown promising data that could revolutionize existing treatment protocols or fill therapeutic gaps [1] - The report recommends companies including Shiyao Group, Kelun-Botai, and Hutchison China MediTech, with industry-related companies including 3SBio [1] Summary by Sections IO Resistance - IBI363 shows excellent survival data in treating IO-resistant NSCLC, with a 12-month OS rate exceeding 70.9% and 71.6% for different cancer types, significantly outperforming chemotherapy and other innovative drug competitors [2][10] - MRG003 demonstrates significant PFS and OS improvements in PD-1 and platinum-based chemotherapy-resistant NPC patients, with HR values of 0.63 and 0.73, respectively [2][21] Lung Cancer - Phase III clinical trials for domestic new drugs show potential for therapeutic innovation, with results from studies on Beimuosubai monoclonal antibody combined with Anlotinib indicating PFS of 11.0 months and 13.3 months in different patient groups, outperforming competitors [3][24] - The SACHI study shows that the combination of Saiwo and Osimertinib in 2L EGFRm Met-amplified NSCLC achieves a PFS of 6.9 months, significantly better than chemotherapy [3][32] Gastrointestinal Tumors - Domestic innovative drugs have made breakthroughs in gastric cancer and CRC, with the Vidiqi monoclonal antibody showing an ORR of 82.4% in HER2 high-expressing patients, significantly outperforming existing treatment options [4][35] - JMT101 combined with Irinotecan shows a PFS of 7.4 months in 3L+ CRC, outperforming current SoC treatments [4][43]

Macro Overview - The report highlights the upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions, which may disrupt global trade, particularly as U.S. imports have shown a low-to-high trend since June, while South Korea's export growth has improved significantly [2] - U.S. consumer and employment markets are cooling, with weakened corporate confidence and persistent inflationary pressures, indicating potential trade volume disturbances as the July 9 tariff deadline approaches [2] Fixed Income Insights - Global liquidity has shifted, with funds flowing out of U.S. dollar assets back to local markets, leading to non-U.S. markets outperforming U.S. assets [3] - The report suggests that geopolitical tensions have eased, allowing funds to temporarily return to risk assets, while the basic economic outlook remains supportive of U.S. stock performance [3] Banking and Securities - The People's Bank of China and other departments have issued guidelines to support consumption, proposing 19 specific measures to boost the consumption sector [3] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in quality regional banks and leading brokerage firms, emphasizing the positive policy outlook and expected economic recovery [3] Transportation Sector - The report recommends focusing on three main lines for the second half of 2025: high-volatility airline stocks, core assets benefiting from foreign capital inflow, and shipping opportunities amid tariff and geopolitical disturbances [5] - Specific stock recommendations include major airlines and logistics companies with strong competitive advantages and stable profitability [5] Pharmaceutical Sector - The 2025 ASCO conference showcased a significant increase in the participation of domestic innovative drugs, with approximately 67 studies presented, marking a 35% increase from 2024 [7] - Notable drugs such as IBI363 and MRG003 have shown promising data, indicating potential breakthroughs in treatment options [7] Mechanical Equipment - The report notes a transition in the domestic manufacturing cycle towards passive destocking, influenced by strategic emerging industries [5] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on technological innovation and industry upgrades, particularly in AI, engineering machinery globalization, and new energy technologies [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This year, global funds have generally flowed out of US dollar assets and returned to their home markets. The spill - over of US dollar liquidity has led non - US markets to generally outperform US assets. However, with the easing of geopolitical tensions and the resurgence of the "US Exceptionalism," there are new changes in global capital flows. After the cooling of the Middle East situation, funds temporarily flow back to risk assets. The prospect of a soft landing in the fundamentals and the resurgence of the AI narrative may continue to support the performance of the US stock market. If the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. In the short term, the cooling of geopolitical conflicts and the dovish stance of the Fed have led to the repair of global risk appetite and the rise of easing expectations. Equity assets may be favorable in the short term, while crude oil and gold may face some correction pressure [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Capital Flow and Asset Performance - Global funds have flowed out of US dollar assets this year. According to TIC data, in April, overseas investors reduced their holdings of medium - and long - term securities by $88.9 billion, including $59.2 billion in US stocks and $46 billion in US Treasury bonds. Canada and the Chinese mainland had relatively large reduction scales [8]. - European stocks are the most benefited assets under the weak US dollar due to friendly policies, low - level fundamental repair, and frequent capital rotation between the US and Europe. European investors have continuously reduced their holdings of US stocks and returned to their home markets this year. The recent 3 - month rolling net capital inflow into European stocks has reached a high since 2010 [12]. - Multiple funds support the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market, including foreign capital inflows, southbound funds, and the liquidity injection by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. The recent rise of the Hong Kong stock market is more of a valuation repair due to abundant liquidity. However, if the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market, but the long - term impact is limited [14][29]. - A - share market has abundant off - market liquidity and low opportunity cost, with active on - market funds. Since April, the trading sentiment has weakened, and the market is mainly in a state of stock game. Recently, large - finance (high - dividend), small - cap stocks have led the rise, and themes are active [21][31]. Short - term Changes in Global Liquidity - The cooling of the Middle East situation has improved market risk appetite, and funds have temporarily flowed back to risk assets. Risk - aversion assets are under pressure, and the focus will shift to fundamental data and the Fed's monetary policy stance [23]. - The "US Exceptionalism" has recovered. The prospect of a soft landing in the fundamentals and the resurgence of the AI narrative may support the US stock market. "De - dollarization" may be postponed. In the short term, the net inflow of funds into US stocks has stabilized and rebounded, and the inflow of funds into US Treasury bonds is generally stable [23]. - The Hong Kong dollar has touched the weak - side guarantee. If the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. The subsequent depreciation pressure of the Hong Kong dollar may come from the appreciation of the US dollar and capital outflows from the Hong Kong stock market [29]. Market Condition Assessment - Domestic: Port throughput has slightly converged, the supply and demand in the construction industry are weak, and housing prices need to stabilize. Externally, the US consumption and real estate sectors face downward pressure, the impact of tariffs is gradually emerging, economic growth is slowing down, and the Fed has raised its inflation forecast [38][39]. - Overseas: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month (previous value - 0.1%), industrial output decreased by 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.1%), and the housing start - up rate in May dropped to a five - year low, down 9.8%. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4%, and raised the core inflation forecast to 3.1% [39]. Configuration Suggestions - For large - category assets: In the short term, equity assets may be favorable, while crude oil and gold may face correction pressure [34]. - For the domestic bond market: The recent keyword is more upward direction, limited space, and emphasis on micro - operations. The yield of 10 - year Chinese bonds is approaching 1.6%, and small opportunities can be grasped from curve convex points and "micro - operations" [34]. - For the domestic stock market: Policy strength and performance drivers need to be realized. Continue to trade along industrial hotspots, policy expectations, and "high - to - low" rotations [35]. - For US Treasury bonds: The cooling of the US economy may bring short - term opportunities for US Treasury bonds. It is recommended to lay out 10 - year US Treasury bonds when the yield is above 4.5%, and the 2 - year variety is relatively more stable [35]. - For US stocks: Although the short - term sentiment is strong, the valuation has been repaired to a historical high, and there is still downward pressure on earnings. Pay attention to the return of the AI narrative and avoid tariff - affected sectors [36]. - For commodities: After the supply concerns are alleviated, commodities are generally under pressure and will gradually return to fundamental pricing. It is recommended to buy gold on dips, and crude oil is expected to be weak in the short term. It is judged that copper is better than oil [36]. Follow - up Concerns - Domestic: June official manufacturing PMI, June Caixin manufacturing PMI, and the Summer Davos Forum [52]. - Overseas: A series of US economic data including May new home sales, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21, etc., as well as economic data from the eurozone, the UK, and Japan [54].

Key Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and supply risks, with WTI and Brent crude prices rising by 12.7% and 11.9% respectively since the end of May, reaching $68.51 and $71.48 per barrel [3] - The Chinese government has introduced 19 measures to boost consumption, focusing on financial support for key sectors, which is expected to enhance economic recovery and stimulate credit demand [2][6] - The transportation sector is projected to benefit from high volatility, with recommendations for airlines and core assets that demonstrate strong competitive advantages and stable profitability [6] - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to see a value reassessment, driven by a shift towards domestic consumption and supportive government policies, with a U-shaped recovery in consumer confidence [7] - The agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, is expected to experience a rebound in prices due to easing supply pressures and seasonal demand, with recommendations for leading companies in the industry [9] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market has seen a reduction in trading volume and a slight outflow of financing funds after two weeks of inflows, indicating a cooling of market enthusiasm [1] - The report notes an increase in refinancing and share reduction activities, suggesting potential supply-side disturbances in the market [1] Fixed Income and Consumption - The People's Bank of China and other departments have issued guidelines to support consumption, which may lead to increased financial services in the consumer sector [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of quality enterprises in the consumption chain and encourages the issuance of consumer ETFs to attract new capital [2] Oil and Gas Sector - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical events on oil supply and prices, with OPEC+ production adjustments and sanctions on Iran contributing to market volatility [3] - Long-term prospects for oil prices are supported by the ability of leading energy companies to increase production and reduce costs [3] Transportation Sector - The transportation sector is advised to focus on high-volatility opportunities, particularly in airlines, which are expected to benefit from various favorable factors [6] - Recommendations include major airlines and logistics companies that possess strong market positions and resilience [6] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage industry is positioned for growth as domestic consumption becomes a key driver, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating the economy [7] - The report highlights the potential for leading companies in this sector to achieve significant revenue and profit growth through innovation and efficiency improvements [7] Agriculture Sector - The agricultural sector, particularly pig farming, is expected to see price rebounds and improved profitability for leading companies due to favorable market conditions [9] - The report also notes the growth potential in the pet industry and the consolidation of the snack food market, with recommendations for key players [9]

Group 1: Stablecoin Market Growth - The stablecoin market has expanded from $5 billion in 2020 to over $250 billion by mid-2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 100%[2] - By 2024, the trading volume of stablecoins is expected to approach $37 trillion, significantly surpassing Bitcoin's trading volume of $19 trillion[24] - Over 95% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, with USDT and USDC accounting for approximately 90% of the market share[24] Group 2: Future Projections - Conservative estimates suggest that the stablecoin market could reach $4 trillion in size within the next 10 years, implying a CAGR of over 30%[2] - The US Treasury Secretary has projected that by the end of 2029, the market value of stablecoins could reach between $3.5 trillion and $4 trillion, indicating a CAGR of over 80%[2] Group 3: Factors Driving Adoption - The rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) has significantly contributed to the rapid growth of stablecoins, providing a stable medium for transactions in the crypto space[3] - Stablecoins offer high payment efficiency, especially in cross-border transactions, and can bypass traditional banking systems, making them attractive in regions with underdeveloped banking infrastructure[3] Group 4: Regulatory Landscape - Recent legislative efforts in the US (GENIUS Act) and Hong Kong (Stablecoin Ordinance) aim to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which is expected to enhance their development and safety[4] - The clarity in regulatory frameworks is anticipated to balance efficiency and security in the stablecoin market, addressing risks related to compliance and redemption[4] Group 5: Potential Risks - The issuance of stablecoins could lead to an expansion of overall liquidity if monetary authorities do not adjust their statistical measures and design appropriate countermeasures[5] - Risks include compliance issues in cross-border transactions and potential redemption risks, which could impact the stability of the financial system[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the banking and securities sectors [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing financial supply to stimulate consumer demand, highlighting 19 specific measures to support consumption [1]. - It notes that the implementation of monetary and fiscal policies is crucial for stabilizing consumer expectations and supporting economic recovery [2]. - The report indicates a positive outlook for the economy, driven by increased consumer demand and enhanced credit supply from banks [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Support for Consumption - The report discusses the issuance of consumption ETFs and other financial products aimed at enhancing household wealth management, which is expected to attract more capital into the consumption sector [4]. - It highlights the need for innovative financial products tailored to consumer scenarios, aiming to improve the quality and efficiency of financial services in the consumption sector [5]. Support for Quality Enterprises - The report outlines the encouragement for high-quality enterprises in the consumption industry to go public, which is expected to expand financial supply in the consumption sector [3]. - It emphasizes the importance of equity financing for enterprises in the consumption chain, particularly for those in the seed and startup phases [3]. Key Recommendations - The report identifies specific banks and securities firms as investment opportunities, including: - Nanjing Bank (601009 CH) with a target price of 13.29 and a "Buy" rating - Hangzhou Bank (600926 CH) with a target price of 17.78 and an "Overweight" rating - Chongqing Bank (1963 HK) with a target price of 8.89 and a "Buy" rating - China Merchants Bank (600036 CH) with a target price of 54.44 and a "Buy" rating - CITIC Securities (600030 CH) with a target price of 33.31 and a "Buy" rating [10][13].

石油天然气 地缘冲突扰动供应，油价显著上涨 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 24 日│中国内地 行业月报 以伊冲突扩大引发潜在供应担忧，6 月以来油价大幅反弹 证券研究报告 5 月 OPEC+继续上调未来一个月产量目标，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性 进展，叠加美国宣布对伊朗实施新一轮制裁，国际油价先下跌后反弹。6 月 以来，以伊冲突扩大致原油潜在供应风险上升，叠加 4-5 月 OPEC+实际供 应增量低于目标上调幅度，以及北半球传统需求旺季将至，据 Wind，6 月 23 日 WTI/Brent 期货价格较 5 月末上涨 12.7%/11.9%至 68.51/71.48 美元/ 桶。我们认为中东地缘局势及 OPEC+实际增产进度，在全球需求前景偏淡 的背景下为短期重要边际影响因素；长期而言，油价中枢存底部支撑，具备 增产降本能力及天然气业务增量的高分红能源龙头企业或将显现配置机遇。 需求侧：中美炼厂开工逐步提升，北半球需求旺季将至 据 IEA，受全球宏观经济前景不确定性仍存及新能源替代影响，全球石油需 求增长继续放缓，预计 25/26 年石油需求增长放缓至 72/74 万桶/天（上月 预测为 74/76 万桶/ ...

Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - The pig prices are expected to rebound unexpectedly in the second half of 2025 due to easing supply pressure and seasonal consumption peaks, with recommendations to focus on leading companies like Muyuan and Wens [1][2] - The average price of live pigs from the beginning of 2025 to June 16 is approximately 14.81 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of about 4% [12][14] - Major pig farming companies have seen a reduction in breeding costs, with Muyuan's cost dropping to around 12.2 yuan/kg, indicating improved profitability potential [12][14] Group 2: Aquaculture and Feed Industry - The aquaculture feed industry is expected to benefit from rising fish prices, with a notable increase in grass carp prices by approximately 10% since March 2024 [37][39] - Haida Group is highlighted for its strong competitive advantages and potential for growth in both domestic and overseas feed markets, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 20% for overseas feed sales from 2025 to 2030 [38][39] - The domestic feed industry is anticipated to recover due to improved profitability in the pig farming sector and a rebound in aquaculture [37][38] Group 3: Pet Industry - The pet industry is experiencing significant growth driven by a younger demographic of pet owners, with 90s and 00s generation pet owners accounting for over 66.8% of the market by 2024 [45][47] - The average annual spending on pets in China is currently at 2419 yuan, indicating room for growth compared to international standards [46][47] - The market share of domestic pet brands is increasing, with the top five domestic brands reaching a combined market share of 13.9% in 2024, while foreign brands are declining [54][55] Group 4: Snack Retail Industry - The snack retail industry is transitioning towards a dual oligopoly structure, with leading brands like Mingming and Wancheng expected to capture significant market shares of 34% and 30% respectively by May 2025 [4][39] - The industry has substantial room for expansion, with an estimated ceiling of 67,000 stores, indicating a potential for 1.4 times current capacity [4][39] - The profitability of leading snack retail companies is projected to improve due to economies of scale and enhanced bargaining power with suppliers [4][39]