[Table_Title] 攻守兼备 [Table_Title2] 信用周观察系列 因此，信用债建议以中短久期票息品种为主，攻守兼备。其中，普信 债建议 1-3 年 AA 和 AA(2)城投债，兼顾流动性和票息。从收益率来 看，1-2 年 AA(2)、2-3 年 AA 和 AA(2)城投债收益率在 2.12%-2.36%之 间，且存量债余额较大，合计3.2万亿，可选范围较广。并且，从流动 性来看，1-2年、2-3年 AA和 AA(2)城投债成交较为活跃，月度成交笔 数占比在 4%-10%之间，优于多数中长久期品种。并且，在债市调整 阶段，1-3 年 AA 和 AA(2)城投债流动性也不会快速萎缩，成交占比没 有显著下降。 银行资本债防御应对，优选中短久期避险品种，不急于拉久期博弈。 一方面，银行资本债具有"利率波动放大"的属性，而近期利率偏震 荡，交易难度较大。另一方面，公募基金费率新规对其影响较大，因 为通常用作流动性管理工具的短债、中短债基金中，银行资本债持仓 占比较高，若遭遇大规模赎回，流动性相对好的银行资本债或被率先 抛售，将面临更大的估值波动压力。整体来看，交易风险大于交易机 会。 避险品种可以考虑 ...

Economic Growth - The GDP growth for the first three quarters is 5.2%, indicating low urgency for policy intervention[1] - The GDP growth rate for Q3 is 4.8%, a slowdown from 5.2% in Q2[1] - Q4 growth is projected at 4.5-4.6%, sufficient to meet the annual target of 5%[1] Price and Demand Indicators - The nominal GDP growth for Q3 is 3.73%, down 0.21 percentage points from Q2's 3.94%[2] - The GDP deflator index shows a year-on-year rebound of approximately 0.2 percentage points to -1.0%, remaining negative for ten consecutive quarters[2] - Weighted year-on-year growth for industrial and service sectors in September rebounded by 0.5 percentage points to 5.9%[2] Retail and Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in September is 3.0%, the lowest this year, with a slowdown attributed to last year's high base effects[3] - Per capita consumption expenditure in Q3 increased by 3.4%, down 1.8 percentage points from Q2[3] - The urban consumption rate is 63.4%, slightly lower than 2019, while the rural consumption rate is 84.6%, higher than 2019[4] Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5%, marking the first negative growth since October 2020[5] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) saw a reduced decline of 1.2 percentage points to -4.6% in September[5] - Real estate sales in September showed a year-on-year decline of 10.5% in area and 11.8% in value, but the decline in sales value narrowed by 2.2 percentage points[5] Market Outlook - The necessity for policy tightening is reduced as the annual growth target of 5% is likely to be met[6] - Supply-demand imbalances persist, with production indicators growing at 5.7% while demand indicators show a decline of -0.6%[8] - The bond market may experience upward movement as risk appetite stabilizes, with potential monetary easing expected in 2026[8]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant reduction in trading volume in the equity market, indicating a lack of strong investor participation and a cautious market sentiment [1][2] - The report suggests that the current market environment is characterized by a risk-off attitude, with a notable decrease in trading volume, which has reached its lowest level since August 11 [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring volume changes, as a potential shift from low to high volume could impact future investment strategies [2][3] Equity Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a slight rebound with a 0.79% increase, but trading volume decreased by 203.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rise by 2.42% and 3.00%, respectively, while southbound capital recorded a net outflow of 2.67 billion HKD [1] - The report notes that the AI computing power sector, including optical modules and circuit boards, has shown strength but has not significantly improved risk appetite among investors [1][2] Market Volume Dynamics - The report identifies that the current state of reduced trading volume may lead to a prolonged period of market testing patience, with a preference for dividend stocks during this phase [2] - It is suggested that if trading volume continues to decline, structural risks in the market may gradually be released, allowing for increased positions in dividend stocks while waiting for new thematic investment opportunities [2][3] - The report warns that if trading volume drops below 1.5 trillion yuan, investors should consider cautiously allocating small positions in thematic stocks to capitalize on potential rebounds [2] Bond Market Overview - The bond market is influenced by risk appetite, with recent developments in U.S.-China relations contributing to a slight increase in interest rates [4][5] - The report indicates that the bond market is likely to remain in a volatile state until clearer signals emerge regarding interest rates and economic policies [5] - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, particularly with 7-10 year government bonds, while looking for short-term recovery opportunities [5] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market is experiencing a correction, particularly in precious metals, which have seen significant outflows of capital [6][7] - The report highlights a divergence in the performance of "anti-involution" related commodities, with some, like live pigs, rebounding after previous declines, while others, such as glass and polysilicon, are under pressure [6][7] - The overall market correction is viewed as a normal adjustment following previous over-exuberance, with future focus shifting back to the supply and demand fundamentals of individual commodities [6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The planting industry is focusing on enhancing crop yields and ensuring food security through advanced agricultural technologies and policies [1][12] - The pig farming sector is currently experiencing significant losses, with average losses per head reaching 244.70 yuan for self-bred pigs and 375.29 yuan for purchased piglets, indicating a need for capacity reduction [2][13] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in pig prices due to government policies aimed at reducing breeding sow numbers and improving overall industry efficiency [5][13] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasized the importance of increasing crop yields and implementing comprehensive solutions tailored to specific regions and crops [1][12] - The report highlights the potential for genetically modified crops to significantly enhance yields and self-sufficiency in key varieties [1][12] - Recommended stocks in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on leading seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12] Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.14 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 4.95%, reflecting an oversupply in the market [2][13] - The industry is facing deep losses, prompting a proactive reduction in production capacity, with a target to decrease the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million [5][13] - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and other companies with strong financial positions and cost improvements [5][13] Key Agricultural Products - Corn: The average price is 2276.08 yuan/ton, down 1.61% week-on-week [26] - Wheat: The average price is 2450.11 yuan/ton, up 0.30% week-on-week [29] - Soybeans: The average price is 3988.53 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.03% [41] - Cotton: The average price is 14580 yuan/ton, down 0.98% week-on-week [45] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.64 yuan/kg, down 0.75% week-on-week [52] - Vitamin E is priced at 43.10 yuan/kg, reflecting a significant decrease of 12.58% [52]

机构行为带给债市的潜在阻力。即便 10 月 13 日以来债市连续修复，但 从第三方净申购数据来看，仅公募 FOF 和理财子是中长期纯债基金的主要申 购力量，银行自营依旧倾向于大额赎回债基，或反映四季度部分配置盘对锁 定收益率的诉求很强，这类行为可能继续成为抑制利率下行的阻力。 [Table_Title] 还是震荡 [Table_Summary] ►10 月以来，债市定价的主线主要有三条 首先在中美关系维度，近期关税 2.0 发展一波三折，美方态度在"强硬" 与"示弱"之间反复横跳。从美财长贝森特 15 日的发言来看，当前美方或更 倾向于将关税暂缓期延长，月末的中美高层谈判结果或依旧偏中性。 其次则是债基赎回费的问题，近期市场关于公募费率新规的讨论声重新 放大。从月中市场交易内容来看，部分投资者倾向于定价新规正式稿或较征 求意见稿出现一定程度的调整。不过尚未得到官方验证，因此市场也并没有 大面积地定价这一预期。 最后则是央行 10 月是否重启买债的问题，从当前的资金状态来看，如 果资金面持续维持宽松，央行可能暂不会通过买债操作注入额外流动性。此 外，从 9 月下旬以来的大行行为来看，9 月在二级市场净买入 7- ...

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 [Table_Title] 科创债 ETF 最新规模 2469 亿，增持新券 第二批科创债 ETF 上市以来，近三周规模均在 2500 亿元上下震荡，10 月 17 日最新规模为 2469 亿元。两 批 24 只科创债 ETF 中，百亿 ETF 已达到 15 只。 科创债周度发行升温，不过成交热度依然偏低。科创债净发行在 7 月第一周达到年内高点，随后震荡下滑， 10 月 13-17 日（以下简称"本周"）净发行 459 亿元，较节前一周增长 328 亿元，主要是央企集中发债，例如 国电电力、大唐集团、华润医药、中国电力建设发行规模均超 30 亿元，期限 3 年为主。成交方面，热度同样在 7 月达到高点，随后降温。本周热度相对偏低，不过仍高于科创债 ETF 上市前。科创债 ETF 上市首周（7 月14- 18 日），成交热度达到年内高点，科创债成交笔数、科创债 ETF 成分券成交笔数占信用债的 18%、14%，最近 三周在 10%、5%上下震荡，有所降温。 本周科创债 ETF 增持延续节前一周规律，依然主要是 25 年 9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The secondary - market of REITs was weak this week, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index down 1.44% weekly, showing a four - week consecutive decline. However, the primary - market issuance was hot, with high subscription multiples for newly issued REITs. Attention should be paid to the investment opportunities of rental housing and projects with income distribution adjustment mechanisms [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price - Except for data centers, other seven types of REIT assets declined this week. Rental housing had the largest decline of 2.19%, and only 7 REITs rose while 68 fell. The significant correction of the rental housing sector increased its cost - effectiveness, with the current distribution rate rising to 3.23%. After the bond market stabilizes, especially the expansion - concept rental housing projects are worth attention [1][14]. - The industrial park sector fell 1.47% this week. Only 3 REITs had positive cumulative returns in the second half of 2025. Projects with income distribution adjustment mechanisms are recommended [2][20]. - In the consumer facilities sector, only the newly - listed Cade Commercial REIT rose slightly, while the rest declined. Some projects showed cost - effectiveness and their adjustment plans are worth following [2][24]. 3.1.2 Liquidity - The trading activity of REITs marginally recovered this week but remained low overall. The average daily trading volume, turnover, and turnover rate were 414 million yuan, 93 million shares, and 0.39% respectively, with环比 changes of - 6.92%, + 5.67%, and + 0.02pct [2][29]. - By sector, the top - ranked sectors in terms of average daily turnover rate were new - type facilities, rental housing, and municipal environmental protection. The turnover rate of rental housing increased the most, with a net inflow rate of 1.53%. The warehousing and logistics sector had a low turnover rate and negative net inflow rate [32]. 3.1.3 Valuation - In terms of China Bond valuation yield, warehousing and logistics, transportation facilities, and industrial parks ranked high. From the perspective of cash distribution rate, industrial parks, consumer facilities, and warehousing and logistics had relatively high distribution rates among equity - type projects. In a weak market, projects in economically developed regions with "performance guarantee clauses" should be preferred [40]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Initial Offering - The primary - market issuance was hot. On October 13, the offline subscription multiple of China Overseas Commercial REIT reached 320.47 times, setting a new record in the whole market. On the same day, the offline and public subscription multiples of Shenyang International Software Park REIT were 83.3 and 247.5 times respectively [1]. - On October 17, E Fund Guangxi Beibu Gulf Expressway REIT was submitted to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, being the first project in Guangxi to be submitted to the exchange [2]. 3.2.2 Expansion - The expansion of China Resources Commercial REIT has been accepted, and the expansion of China Resources Youchao REIT has received feedback. The performance of Bosera Shekou Industrial Park REIT after the equal - amount replacement of external borrowings is also worthy of attention [2]. 3.2.3 Other Key News This Week - The expressway sector disclosed its September operating data. Nanjing Transportation Expressway REIT and Shenzhen Expressway REIT's revenue completion met the forecast values [19].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of information communication as a critical infrastructure for the new round of technological upgrades, focusing on three major infrastructure networks: AI computing power infrastructure, integrated space-ground communication networks, and high-speed data circulation infrastructure [1][34] - The report highlights the rapid development of satellite internet and low-altitude economy, with a focus on the integration of satellite communication networks and the establishment of low-altitude economic networks [3][19] - The data element construction is crucial for building high-speed interconnected data circulation infrastructure, with significant growth expected in the data industry [24][27] - AI empowerment is seen as a key driver for industrial upgrades, with applications in various sectors including advanced manufacturing and smart manufacturing [29][30] Summary by Sections 1. Investment in Computing Power Infrastructure - Significant capital expenditure growth in computing power infrastructure, with major telecom operators increasing their investments [12][14] - Key beneficiaries include companies involved in AI chips, optical communication, and data center services [2][14][15] 2. Satellite and Low-Altitude Communication Infrastructure - The rapid deployment of satellite internet and the establishment of low-altitude economic networks are highlighted, with various companies benefiting from this trend [16][19][21] - Key beneficiaries include companies involved in satellite communication and low-altitude network equipment [6][23] 3. Data Element Construction - The data industry is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on building a robust data infrastructure to support data circulation [24][25][26] - Key beneficiaries include telecom operators and companies providing data platforms and security solutions [27][28] 4. AI Empowerment for Industrial Upgrades - AI is driving the transformation of traditional manufacturing into smart manufacturing, with a focus on enhancing productivity and efficiency [29][30][31] - Key beneficiaries include companies involved in AI applications across various sectors [35][36]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Xiaogoods City achieved significant growth in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 5.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.02%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 1.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.52% [1][28]. - The strong performance is attributed to the successful leasing of commercial spaces in the Global Digital Trade Center and the growth in fulfillment service profits [1][28]. - The Global Digital Trade Center officially opened on October 14, 2025, which is expected to continue benefiting the company as it ramps up operations [1][28]. - The report also notes that the cross-border payment business of Yipay surpassed 27 billion yuan, growing over 35% year-on-year, indicating robust growth potential [1][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The consumer services index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.00 percentage points, while the retail index outperformed by 2.14 percentage points during the specified period [8]. 2. Industry & Company Dynamics 2.1 Industry News - Sam's Club is expanding into lower-tier markets, with a new store opening in Zhangjiagang on October 20, 2025 [17]. - The 2025 China Urban Convenience Store Development Index was released, showing steady growth in convenience store development across major cities [18][19]. - The Global Digital Trade Center in Yiwu opened on October 14, 2025, marking a significant upgrade in the market's trading capabilities [21]. 2.2 Industry Financing Situation - Notable financing events include Xiuhou Technology completing a 50 million yuan Series A round and Haichuang Biotechnology securing several million yuan in Series A funding [22][23][25]. 2.3 Key Company Announcements - Xiaogoods City reported a total revenue of 13.061 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.07%, and a net profit of 3.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.45% [28][30]. 3. Macro & Industry Data 3.1 Retail Sales - In August, total retail sales reached 3.97 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [33][38]. - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year from January to August [34]. 3.2 Gold and Jewelry - National gold consumption in Q2 2025 was 214.71 tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.06% year-on-year [50].

Local Government Bonds - The new transfer limit of 500 billion yuan for local government bonds has two main features: expanded funding usage and a total transfer amount that remains the same as last year at 500 billion yuan[1][12]. - In Q3 2025, local government bond issuance reached a peak of 30,430 billion yuan, but net financing decreased to 17,385 billion yuan due to a significant increase in maturing bonds[2][21]. - Despite the new 500 billion yuan transfer limit, the net financing pressure for local government bonds in Q4 is manageable, estimated at around 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 4,385 billion yuan from the previous quarter[2][25]. National Bonds - In Q3 2025, national bonds saw a record net issuance of 20,192 billion yuan, an increase of 1,766 billion yuan year-on-year, and 1,071 billion yuan from the previous quarter[3][32]. - The remaining net financing for national bonds in Q4 is projected at 12,600 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of about 1,712 billion yuan but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of approximately 7,592 billion yuan[3][38]. Policy Financial Bonds - The net issuance of policy financial bonds in Q3 2025 was 7,602 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to previous years, particularly in August when it reached 3,924 billion yuan[4][43]. - For Q4, the net financing scale of policy financial bonds may exceed seasonal norms, potentially reaching 6,800 billion yuan, which is an increase of about 1,704 billion yuan compared to the average from 2020 to 2024[6][48].