HUAXI Securities

Search documents
公募REITs周速览:七连涨之后的回调
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-29 11:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (June 23 - 27, 2025), the CSI REITs Total Return Index closed at 1,109.13 points, down 1.38% weekly, ending seven consecutive weeks of gains since April 30, 2025. The CSI REITs (Closing) Index closed at 880.90 points, down 1.46% weekly. After the listing of two new projects, the total market capitalization of the REITs market still decreased by 0.24% month - on - month, and all asset - class sectors pulled back [1][8]. - From the perspective of major asset classes, REITs fell across the board this week, while the equity market and convertible bonds rose, and gold performed poorly [1][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price: All categories pulled back, and the transportation sector declined for two consecutive weeks - All seven REITs sectors fell this week. The transportation facilities sector led the decline with a 2.22% drop after a 1.1% decline last week. Only CICC Shandong Expressway REIT recorded a positive growth of 0.47%, and the road asset operation situation still showed obvious differentiation. The energy sector had the smallest decline, mainly driven by the rise of CITIC Construction Investment State Power Investment New Energy and AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT [2][15]. - At the individual bond level, CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT and CICC China Greentown Commercial REIT, which were officially listed on June 26 and 27, 2025, respectively, both had a 30% increase on the first day, and Yizhuang Industrial Park also hit the 10% daily limit on the next day. Other REITs with price increases this week were Guotai Junan Lingang Innovation Industrial Park REIT, Huaxia Huarun Commercial REIT, etc., and the relevant original equity holders all had strong asset operation capabilities [20]. 3.1.2 Liquidity: The turnover rates of municipal environmental protection and rental housing still led - The overall market trading this week showed no significant change compared with last week. The average daily trading volume was 579 million yuan, the average daily trading volume was 120 million shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 0.61%, with month - on - month increases of 1.80%, 1.41%, and 0 pct respectively [2][24]. - By sector, the sectors with the highest average daily turnover rates this week were municipal environmental protection (1.16%), rental housing (0.88%), and energy facilities (0.64%). At the individual bond level, the top three in trading activity this week were CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT, Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT, and Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT [27][29]. - Five projects will be unblocked in July. The impact of the large - scale transaction method on prices remains to be observed [2][32]. 3.1.3 Valuation: After the pull - back, the ChinaBond valuation yields of all projects increased - The across - the - board decline of REITs this week led to a valuation adjustment of the sector. From the perspective of ChinaBond valuation yields, the transportation (5.38%), warehousing and logistics (4.96%), and industrial park (4.90%) sectors were at the forefront, and the project valuations showed obvious differentiation, with individual bonds having room for exploration [2][36]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Initial Offering: China Overseas Land & Investment applied for a consumer REIT - On June 24, 2025, the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" pointed out that financial products and financing models suitable for the characteristics of capital demand should be explored and innovated around key areas of consumer infrastructure construction, and support the issuance of REITs for eligible consumer infrastructure [44]. - On June 26, China Overseas Land & Investment announced that it planned to independently list the "China Overseas Foshan Nanhai Yingyue Lake Ringyu City" shopping center project on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the form of a public REIT, with a planned fundraising of 1.355 billion yuan, and China Overseas Land & Investment would subscribe for about 20% of the fund shares [3][44]. - As of June 27, 2025, there were about 12 - 15 potential issuance projects this year, with an expected total issuance scale of over 20 billion yuan, and the market total scale was expected to exceed 220 billion yuan [44]. 3.2.2 Other Key News This Week - Ping An Ningbo Transportation Investment REIT plans to hold an investor open - day event from 10:00 - 16:00 on July 3, 2025 [54]. - On June 24, the Guojin Asset Management - Happy Valley Hold - type Real Estate Asset - Backed Special Plan was approved, with a proposed issuance scale of 670 million yuan. Happy Valley is a retail business of China Resources Vanguard [3][54].
7月理财或迎万亿增量
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-29 11:46
[Table_Title] 7 月理财或迎万亿增量 [Table_Summary] ►本轮理财季末回表压力或弱于季节性规律 本周(6 月 23-27 日)理财回表压力或达到阶段性高点,存续规模显 著承压。不过由于数据源受限(目前仅 52%产品正常披露),当周实际录 得规模环比下降 2864 亿元,存续规模降至 31.33 万亿元。近两年二季度 同期规模降幅均在 1.1 万亿元以上。 不过我们倾向于,今年理财资金季末回表压力可能弱于季节性规律。 这一判断可从两方面得到侧面印证,一方面季末理财在二级市场仍维持大 额净买入。6 月中旬(6 月 16-27 日)以来,理财用于流动性管理的存单 类资产日均买入量为129亿元,高于2022-24年同期14亿元的平均水平, 同时也高于今年一季度同期的 13 亿元。另一方面,本轮季末银行融出维 持年内相对高位,存单发行价格也持续向下,或反映季末银行各项指标压 力可控,母行的回表诉求可能不高。 往后看,7 月理财规模通常呈季节性扩张特征,且增幅往往高于前月 回表幅度,历史上 7 月增幅普遍维持在 1.4-2.2 万亿元区间,6月降幅基本 分布在 0.8-1.5 万亿元。跨季后, ...
类权益周报:关键位置,关键大涨-20250629
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-29 11:35
Market Overview - From June 23 to 27, the equity market experienced a significant rise, with the Wind All A Index closing at 5268.17, up 3.56% from June 20, while the China Convertible Bond Index rose 2.08%[1][10] - The increase was driven by stabilizing funds and a fear of missing out (FOMO) among investors, although the rally faced resistance starting Thursday due to limited potential buying power[1][19] Overseas Insights - The easing of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions led to a drop in the US Dollar Index, which fell below 97 on June 26, marking its lowest point since February 2022[2][31] - The market is currently desensitized to tariff impacts, focusing instead on the potential effects of the Section 232 investigation on specific industries, particularly copper futures[2][34] Strategy and Opportunities - Historical analysis suggests that after significant rallies, markets often enter a consolidation phase. The report highlights two types of past market behaviors: one driven by volatility expectations and another supported by stabilizing funds[3][35] - Key sectors to watch include consumer goods (supported by policy), technology (low crowding and ongoing narratives), and dividend stocks (potentially benefiting from risk-averse sentiment)[3][44] Convertible Bond Valuation - As of June 27, convertible bond valuations have stretched across various price levels, with the valuation center for an 80 CNY parity bond rising to 48.23%, a 1.25 percentage point increase from June 20[4][26] - The report notes that while convertible bond valuations are elevated, they remain below extreme levels, indicating potential for further growth[4][28] Risk Factors - The report warns of potential rapid style rotation in the equity market and unexpected adjustments in convertible bond market rules, which could impact investor sentiment and market stability[5][50]
传媒行业周报系列2025年第25周:6月共158款游戏获批,版号数量创近年新高-20250629
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-29 11:34
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - In June, the number of game approvals reached a recent high, with 158 games approved, including 147 domestic and 11 imported games. This reflects the regulatory support for the healthy development of the industry, injecting new momentum into the market [2][25] - The stability of policies significantly enhances the predictability of domestic manufacturers' R&D and distribution plans, promoting resources towards high-quality and long-term development [2][25] - The expansion of import licenses demonstrates an inclusive and innovative attitude, indicating a shift from scale expansion to high-quality development in the industry [2][25] - Investment opportunities include: 1) Hong Kong internet leaders benefiting from consumption promotion and employment stability; 2) The gaming industry, which is expected to see demand growth driven by policy incentives and technological empowerment; 3) The film and cultural tourism industry, which will benefit from consumption policies that stimulate cinema recovery [3][26] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "Sauce Garden Case" with 97.046 million yuan (27.0% market share), "Detective Conan: The Lone Eye's Remnant" with 95.633 million yuan (26.6%), and "How to Train Your Dragon" with 42.064 million yuan (11.7%) [28][29] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue are "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Endless Winter." The top three Android games by popularity are "Heartbeat Town," "Sword and Wand Legend," and "My Leisure Time" [31][32] TV Series Industry - The top TV series by broadcast index are "Lingjiang Xian" and "Book Scroll Dream" (both tied for first), followed by "The Lychee of Chang'an" and "In the Name of Law" [34][35] Variety and Animation - The top variety show is "Ha Ha Ha Ha Season 5," followed by "Infinite Overcoming Class Season 3" and "Singer 2025." The top animation is "Cang Yuan Tu: Meng Chuan's Counterattack" with a viewership index of 308 [36][38]
周专题:7月空冰洗内销排产好于出口,第三批消费品以旧换新资金将下达
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-29 11:34
Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In July 2025, the production of major home appliances showed a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, with domestic production outperforming exports. The domestic air conditioning market was affected by terminal market conditions, leading to a downward adjustment in production [9][10] - The third batch of funds for the replacement of old consumer goods will be disbursed in July, aimed at stimulating demand in the consumer goods sector [11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: July Production Data - The production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in July 2025 indicated that domestic production was better than exports. The year-on-year growth rates for domestic air conditioning production from July to September are projected to be +8.1%, -19.2%, and -7.8% respectively, while export growth rates are expected to be -16.3%, -8.3%, and -16.6% [9] - Refrigerator production is also affected by U.S. tariff policies, with domestic production growth rates of +3.2%, -5.5%, and -3.5% for the same period, and export growth rates of -4.9%, -7.9%, and -4.1% [9] - The washing machine market is in a seasonal downturn, with domestic production growth rates of -4.6%, -6.9%, and -3.6%, while exports show growth rates of -3.8%, +1.2%, and +11.3% [10] 2. Company Key Announcements - Sanhua Intelligent Controls announced an expected net profit of 1.893 to 2.272 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% to 50% due to strong market demand in the refrigeration and automotive parts sectors [15] - Stone Technology submitted an application for H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [15] 3. Data Tracking 3.1 Raw Material Data - As of June 27, 2025, LME copper prices increased by 1.1% and LME aluminum prices rose by 2.14% compared to the previous week [16] 3.2 Shipping Rates and Exchange Rates - The CCFI composite index increased by 2.00% as of June 27, 2025, while the USD to RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.20% [24] 3.3 Real Estate Data - From January to May 2025, the sales area of commercial housing, completed housing area, and new housing starts showed year-on-year declines of -2.9%, -17.3%, and -22.8% respectively [26]
电力设备与新能源行业周观察:固态电池全产业链扩散,1-5月电网工程投资同比增长
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-29 11:20
[Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 固态电池全产业链扩散,1-5 月电网工程投资同比 增长 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 1.人形机器人 机器人产业布局加快 随着国内外企业布局&AI 技术突破,人形机器有望迎来量产落地 时点。在降本需求的驱动下,人形机器人核心零部件的国产替 代需求强烈,市场空间广阔,率先取得突破的国内企业有望深 度受益。 2.新能源汽车 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 小米 YU7 正式发布 我们认为,新能源汽车进入深度渗透的阶段,高性价比车型为 销售者带来更好的体验感,是扩大销售规模的核心推动力。新 车型的发布,短期有望推动关键环节排产上升以及国内销量增 长,中长期有助于新能源汽车行业稳健发展,看好核心供应商 相应机遇。 3.新能源 三北光伏治沙规划获批,2030 年新增装机达 253GW 我国沙戈荒地区蕴含着丰富的资源禀赋,为光伏治沙提供了广 阔的装机空间,国家林草局荒漠化防治司二级巡视员潘红星指 出,"在'沙戈荒'地区划定了对生态影响小、光伏电站建设 成本低的适建区域 1 ...
投资策略周报:全球降息空间再度打开,A股“稳中向好”延续-20250629
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-29 09:54
Market Review - The global stock market risk appetite has significantly improved due to the rapid de-escalation of the Middle East situation and the growing expectations of interest rate cuts overseas, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching all-time highs. The A-share index has strengthened, driven by the large financial sector, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through its year-to-date high after three consecutive days of gains. Active theme investments have emerged, particularly in military, non-bank financials, and stablecoin concepts. Major A-share indices have generally risen, with the North Star 50, micro-cap indices, ChiNext, and CSI 2000 indices leading the gains, while the dividend index declined. In commodities, international oil prices and gold have significantly retreated, and the US dollar index continues to decline, with a year-to-date drop exceeding 10%, while the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has risen to around 7.15 [1][2]. Market Outlook - The global space for interest rate cuts has reopened, and the A-share market is expected to continue its "steady improvement." Despite significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, the market has begun pricing in rate cuts due to the easing of geopolitical risks and falling oil prices. Domestically, the A-share index has gradually risen due to the continuous inflow of medium- to long-term funds. The recent increase in trading volume and improved profitability in the A-share market have boosted investor risk appetite, reopening the upper range of the market's fluctuation center. Looking ahead, the constraints of exchange rates on China's monetary policy have significantly weakened, and the domestic policy of "stabilizing growth" requires a loose monetary environment. The reopening of domestic and foreign interest rate cut spaces will help elevate A-share valuations. Key areas of focus for the market include: balanced industry allocation with a focus on non-ferrous metals, military industry, AI computing power, and AI applications. Thematic investments should pay attention to solid-state batteries, stablecoins, and self-controllable technologies [2]. Overseas Economic Conditions - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, with the probability of three rate cuts in the second half of the year rising. The actual GDP of the US in the first quarter was unexpectedly revised down to -0.5%, with personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy, only growing by 0.5%. This has led to a downward adjustment in its contribution to GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in service consumption. Consumer confidence in the US has significantly declined this year, raising concerns about the impact of tariffs on US economic data. Recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials suggest that if inflation remains moderate, they may support a rate cut in July. Despite significant internal divisions reflected in the June dot plot, the market has begun to price in rate cuts, leading to declines in the US dollar index and Treasury yields, while US stocks have risen. According to CME FedWatch, market expectations for the number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have increased from two to three [5]. Domestic Economic Conditions - The weak dollar expectation is conducive to global capital flowing into emerging markets, with A-shares benefiting from domestic and foreign liquidity easing. In early May, the Hong Kong dollar triggered the strong-side Convertibility Undertaking multiple times, but within a month, it transitioned from a strong-side to a weak-side guarantee, indicating tightening liquidity expectations for the Hong Kong dollar, which may exert pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. However, this is expected to be a temporary impact. Looking ahead, the weak dollar driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts is likely to continue, further reducing the constraints of exchange rates on China's monetary policy. In the second half of the year, the impact of tariffs on domestic exports may gradually become apparent, while the focus of domestic policy remains on "stabilizing growth," necessitating a loose monetary environment. The reopening of domestic and foreign interest rate cut spaces, along with ample liquidity, is expected to directly promote the elevation of A-share valuations [5]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The increase in trading volume and profitability has helped boost risk appetite, with the A-share index center expected to rise in July. Year-to-date, medium- to long-term funds have continuously flowed into A-shares, with net purchases by social security, insurance, and annuity funds exceeding 200 billion yuan, contributing to a virtuous cycle of "reporting increases—funds entering—market stability." This week, the daily trading volume of A-shares has repeatedly exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, with no significant increase in the issuance of equity funds and ETF subscriptions. Meanwhile, financing funds have net purchased for four consecutive trading days (from June 23 to June 26), and after the Shanghai Composite Index effectively broke through 3,400 points, the financing balance has further increased, reflecting an improvement in market risk appetite, which is conducive to further elevating the A-share index center in July [5]. Fundamental Analysis - From a fundamental perspective, the impact of tariffs on corporate profits is gradually becoming apparent, and the marginal weakening of the real estate market is expected to delay the upward trend in A-share earnings. In May, the year-on-year decline in industrial enterprises above designated size was -9.1%, a significant drop from April's 3%, with declines in volume, price, and profit margins. The PPI in May fell by 3.3% year-on-year, remaining in negative territory for 32 consecutive months. Historical experience shows a strong correlation between PPI and non-financial A-share earnings; if PPI continues to weaken, it may interrupt the brief earnings recovery seen in A-shares in the first quarter. On the other hand, the weak fundamental elasticity of A-shares suggests that they are more likely to experience a gradual elevation of the fluctuation center amid volatility [5]. Valuation and Risk Premium - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares and the PE (TTM) excluding financials and oil & gas sectors are critical indicators for assessing market valuation. The latest valuation metrics for major A-share industries, including PE (TTM) and PB (LF), provide insights into the current market conditions and potential investment opportunities [38][40].
计算机行业周报:链上资产,RWA应用深化-20250629
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-29 09:13
► 三、投资建议 [Table_Title2] 计算机行业周报 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: ► 一、稳定币:合规提速与应用破局并行 韩国通过《数字资产基本法》草案,大幅降低稳定币 发行门槛至 5 亿韩元,激发 Kakao Pay 等支付巨头及 银行联盟加速布局韩元稳定币;中国香港则发布《数 字资产发展宣言 2.0》,明确将于 2025 年 8 月实施稳 定币发牌机制;同时国泰君安国际获批成为首家拥有 虚拟资产全牌照的中资券商。两地政策驱动与头部机 构行动清晰表明,稳定币正深度嵌入主流金融体系, 这标志着亚洲本币稳定币生态加速成型,传统金融与 加密生态的融合进入规模化落地新阶段。 ► 二、代币化生态延伸,RWA 应用加速 中国移动通信联合会设立"RWA 联合实验室",强化 标准与场景协同;国家数据局"数据要素×"行动联 合多部委,打通数据确权、跨域流通机制,为 RWA 提 供制度锚点。全球市场同步爆发,广发中国香港试水 离岸人民币代币化证券,拉美完成首笔链上能源资产 并购,Canton 获 1.35 亿美元融资凸显隐私合规基建 价值。RWA 通过资产上链重构传统金融效率,其"制 度设计+技术验证 ...
基本金属行业周报:宏观情绪推动叠加供应短缺,铜价飙升至3月份以来最高水平-20250629
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-29 09:05
证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 宏观情绪推动叠加供应短缺,铜价飙升至 3 月份 以来最高水平 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属:地缘局势缓和叠加中美签署协议,金价本 周回调 本周 COMEX 黄金下跌 2.90%至 3,286.10 美元/盎司, COMEX 白银上涨 0.60%至 36.17 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金下跌 1.56%至 766.40 元/克,SHFE 白银上涨 1.48%至 8,792.00 元/千 克。 周四,美国 5 月耐用品订单月率 16.4%,预期 8.5%,前 值由-6.30%修正为-6.6%。美国第一季度实际 GDP 年化季率终 值 -0.5%,预期-0.20%,前值-0.20%。美国第一季度实际个人 消费支出季率终值 0.5%,预期 1.2%,前值 1.2%。美国第一季 度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率终值 3.5%,预期 3.4%,前值 3.40%。美国至 6 月 21 日当周初请失业金人数 23.6 万人,预 期 24 ...
跨季后,逆回购到期2万亿
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-28 13:51
证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 跨季后,逆回购到期 2 万亿+ [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况:央行加码呵护,跨季成本逐级攀升 6 月 23-27 日,跨季将至,虽然央行呵护力度接连提升,但是跨季资金成本还 是逐级上台阶。复盘本周资金市场,临近跨季,央行持续加码净投放力度,全周累 计净投放 12672 亿元,为今年以来单周净投放次高。与此同时,6 月中长期资金同 样超额投放,合计投放规模为 3180 亿元,高于 3 月跨季的 1630 亿元。 在央行持续净投放资金的背景下,隔夜利率平稳,DR001 全周基本围绕 1.37% 水平窄幅震荡;R001 除周五小幅升至 1.46%外,前四日同样基本稳定在 1.44%左 右。而跨季资金成本则持续攀升,DR007由周一的 1.51%逐日升至周五的 1.70%, R007 也由 1.56%大幅升至 1.92%。 ►展望:跨季后,流动性或将自发式宽松 往后看,下周一(6 月 30日)资金面将迎来最后考验,隔夜利率预计出现短期 冲高,2022- ...