证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续突破历 史新高 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续 突破历史新高 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 8.30%至 4,983.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 14.80%至 103.26 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上 涨 8.07% 至 1,115.64 元 / 克 ，SHFE 白银上涨 11.04% 至 24,965.00 元/千克。 本周金银比下跌 5.66%至 48.26。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 27,574.43 金 衡盎 司 ， SLV 白 银 ETF 持仓增加 544,084.20 盎司。 周三，美国 12 月成屋签约销售指数月率 -9.3%，预期 0.4%，前值 3.30%。美国 10 月营建支出月率 0.5%，预期 0.10%。 周四，美国至 1 月 17 日当周初请失业金人数 20 万人，预 期 21 万人，前值由 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term raw material supply tightness is expected to support nickel prices, with LME nickel spot price reaching $18,630 per ton, up 5.70% from January 16 [1] - The cobalt market is anticipated to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 438,000 yuan per ton, down 3.74% from January 16 [2][5] - Domestic antimony supply remains tight, providing price support, with antimony ingot prices at 160,500 yuan per ton [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue rising, with a market average of 171,100 yuan per ton, up 8.36% from January 16 [8][19] - Supply uncertainties in the rare earth market are expected to support prices, with significant global supply concentration in China [10][20] - Tin prices are supported by overseas supply uncertainties, with LME tin prices at $54,200 per ton, up 9.66% from January 16 [11][21] - Tungsten market supply-demand imbalance is notable, with white tungsten concentrate prices at 535,500 yuan per ton, up 5.93% from January 16 [13][22] - Uranium supply tightness is expected to persist, with global uranium prices at $63.51 per pound [14][15] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints, with Indonesia's nickel mining production quota expected to be reduced to 250-260 million tons [1][16] - Cobalt supply is projected to tighten further, with Congo's export quotas confirmed to extend into 2026 [2][17] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony supply remains tight, with domestic prices expected to rise due to export restrictions and seasonal supply issues [6][18] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong due to demand support and supply uncertainties, particularly regarding the recovery of key lithium mines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Update - The rare earth market is facing supply tightening due to export bans and geopolitical factors, with China maintaining a dominant position [10][20] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][21] Tungsten Industry Update - The tungsten market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to rise due to limited new supply [13][22] Uranium Industry Update - Uranium prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors affecting production [14][15]

Market Overview - Global stock indices experienced more declines than gains this week, with Hong Kong, US, and European markets all showing downturns, while the A-share Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose slightly by 0.8% and 1.1% respectively[1] - In the A-share market, small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, with the Micro-cap Index, CSI 500, and CSI 2000 leading gains, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 lagged behind[1] - In terms of sectors, cyclical and technology growth sectors performed well, with construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, steel, and chemicals leading the gains, while large financials, telecommunications, and food and beverage sectors faced declines[1] Market Outlook - The slow bull market trend is expected to continue, focusing on three main investment lines: technology sector expansion, price increase beneficiaries, and high-growth sectors in annual report forecasts[2] - The current period is marked by a high volume of annual report forecasts, with a pre-announcement success rate of 38% among over 900 listed companies, indicating strong interest in sectors like electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals[3] - The A-share market's trading volume remains robust, with a peak of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, and a turnover rate of 3.9%, suggesting potential for increased market volatility if the turnover rate continues to rise[3] Risk Factors - Key risks include unexpected global economic fluctuations, ineffective policy measures, overseas liquidity risks, and geopolitical tensions[2] - The current risk premium for the CSI 300 index stands at 5.27%, indicating that there is still ample room for growth compared to historical levels where risk premiums have dropped to around 2.5%[3]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The report indicates that the production of bauxite remained stable at 15.4 million tons in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6% for the entire year, totaling 62.4 million tons [17] - Alumina production in Q4 2025 was 196.9 thousand tons, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 1% but a 4% increase compared to the previous quarter, with an annual total of 759.3 thousand tons, reflecting a 4% increase year-on-year [2][3] - The report highlights that aluminum production in Q4 2025 reached 85.2 thousand tons, a 2% increase year-on-year, while the total for 2025 was 338.0 thousand tons, marking a 3% increase [3][4] - Copper production in Q4 2025 was 240 thousand tons, representing a 5% year-on-year increase, with an annual total of 883 thousand tons, which is an 11% increase [8][9] - Lithium carbonate equivalent production for Q4 2025 was 15 thousand tons, a 23% increase from the previous quarter, with an annual total of 57 thousand tons [10][11] - The report notes that recycled aluminum production in Q4 2025 was 62 thousand tons, a 7% year-on-year increase, with an annual total of 269 thousand tons, reflecting a 2% increase [6][7] - Iron ore production from the Pilbara region in Q4 2025 was 89.7 million tons, a 4% year-on-year increase, with an annual total of 327.3 million tons, remaining stable compared to the previous year [14][17] Summary by Sections Bauxite - Q4 2025 bauxite production: 15.4 million tons, year-on-year increase of 6% [17] - Total bauxite production for 2025: 62.4 million tons [17] Alumina - Q4 2025 alumina production: 196.9 thousand tons, year-on-year decrease of 1% [2] - Total alumina production for 2025: 759.3 thousand tons, year-on-year increase of 4% [3] Aluminum - Q4 2025 aluminum production: 85.2 thousand tons, year-on-year increase of 2% [3] - Total aluminum production for 2025: 338.0 thousand tons, year-on-year increase of 3% [4] Copper - Q4 2025 copper production: 240 thousand tons, year-on-year increase of 5% [8] - Total copper production for 2025: 883 thousand tons, year-on-year increase of 11% [9] Lithium - Q4 2025 lithium carbonate equivalent production: 15 thousand tons, quarter-on-quarter increase of 23% [10] - Total lithium carbonate equivalent production for 2025: 57 thousand tons [11] Recycled Aluminum - Q4 2025 recycled aluminum production: 62 thousand tons, year-on-year increase of 7% [6] - Total recycled aluminum production for 2025: 269 thousand tons, year-on-year increase of 2% [7] Iron Ore - Q4 2025 iron ore production: 89.7 million tons, year-on-year increase of 4% [14] - Total iron ore production for 2025: 327.3 million tons, year-on-year stable [14]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [7] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, Lundin Mining's copper production was 87,032 tons, a decrease of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 7.5% year-on-year. The total copper production for 2025 was 331,232 tons, exceeding the revised guidance [2][4][11] - The Candelaria mine produced 145,471 tons of copper in 2025, benefiting from increased processing due to lower ore grades. The Caserones mine achieved a record quarterly copper production of 39,612 tons in Q4 2025 [2][4] - For 2026, copper production is expected to remain stable at 310,000 to 335,000 tons, with adjustments made due to changes in mining contracts at the Candelaria mine [6][12] Production Overview - Q4 2025 gold production was 34,129 ounces (1.06 tons), down 9.6% quarter-on-quarter and 26.5% year-on-year. Nickel production was 2,174 tons, down 20.2% quarter-on-quarter but up 34.4% year-on-year [3] - The total gold production for 2025 was 141,859 ounces (4.41 tons), a decrease of 10.5% year-on-year. Nickel production for the year was 9,907 tons, an increase of 32.3% year-on-year [4][5] 2026 Guidance - The guidance for 2026 gold production is set at 134,000 to 149,000 ounces, reflecting a decrease in underground mining rates at Candelaria. The 2027 gold production is expected to increase by approximately 10,000 ounces due to higher output from the Chapada mine [8][12] - Consolidated cash costs for 2026 are projected to be between $1.90 and $2.10 per pound, consistent with 2025 guidance. This reflects improved by-product revenues, primarily from gold and molybdenum, offset by a stronger Chilean peso [8][13] Capital Expenditures - Sustaining capital expenditures are expected to total $550 million, with significant allocations to the Candelaria and Caserones projects. Expansionary capital expenditures are projected at $445 million, including costs related to the Vicuña project [9][14] - Exploration expenditures for 2026 are planned at $53 million, focusing on resource expansion in existing and nearby mining areas, particularly at the Caserones project [10]

2025Q4 铜销量为 7.09 亿磅（32.16 万吨），同比减少 28.5%， 环比减少 27.4%。 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 自由港 2025Q4 铜产量环比减少 29.8%至 29.03 万 吨，归属于普通股股东的净利润环比减少 39.8%至 4.06 亿美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 2025Q4 铜的平均实现价格为 5.33 美元/磅（9.29 万元/吨），同 比上涨 28.4%，环比上涨 13.9%。 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: 2025Q4 单位铜现场生产和运输成本为 3.05 美元/磅（5.32 万元/ 吨），同比上涨 22.5%，环比上涨 16.8%。 ► 2025Q4 生产经营情况 1）铜 2025Q4 铜产量为 6.40 亿磅（29.03 万吨），同比减少 38.5%， 环比减少 29.8%，主要反映了 2025 年 9 月份泥石流事故对 PTFI 运营的影响。 2025Q4 铜的平均单位净现金成本为 2.22 美元/磅（3.87 万元/ 吨），同比增长 ...

Market Review - Global stock indices experienced more declines than gains this week, with Hong Kong, US, and European markets all showing downturns. In contrast, the A-share market saw slight increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.8% and 1.1% respectively. Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, with indices such as the Micro-cap Index, CSI 500, and CSI 2000 leading gains, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 lagged behind. In terms of sectors, cyclical and technology growth sectors performed well, with construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, steel, and chemicals leading the gains, while large financials, telecommunications, and food and beverage sectors faced declines. In the commodities market, precious metals continued to strengthen, with COMEX silver and gold prices reaching new historical highs, while domestic black commodities remained weak. The US dollar index fell below 98, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - The report maintains a "slow bull" market trend and focuses on three main investment lines. In the past two weeks, under "counter-cyclical adjustment" measures, net outflows from major A-share ETFs and a slight decline in financing balances have effectively controlled trading momentum. Market turnover remains relatively high, with strong support for small-cap growth stocks, indicating a shift into a phase of accelerated sector rotation. Looking ahead, the current period coincides with a dense disclosure of annual report forecasts, with high-growth sectors becoming the focal point of market attention. The report suggests focusing on the expansion of technology trends, price increase themes, and sectors with high growth in annual report forecasts [2][3]. Sector Allocation - The report recommends focusing on the following sectors: 1) Technology industry expansion, including AI computing, AI applications, robotics, space photovoltaics, storage, and Hong Kong internet sectors 2) Sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" and price increases, such as chemicals and non-ferrous metals 3) Industries with high growth in annual report forecasts, including electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals [2][3]. Structural Analysis - Currently, the market is in a window of dense annual report forecast disclosures, with high growth or improving sectors becoming the focus. As of January 24, over 900 listed companies have disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, with an overall positive forecast rate of 38%. In specific sectors, those with high growth in annual reports (with a median year-on-year growth rate of over 100% in net profit after deducting non-recurring gains) include PCB, storage, optical modules, lithium batteries, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals. Since the beginning of the year, the Wind pre-increase index has risen by 18%, indicating that outstanding performance sectors have become one of the market's focal points [3][4]. Long-term Perspective - From a medium to long-term perspective, comparing the current A-share market to previous bull markets, this round of market activity is still in the middle stage, with a "slow bull" trend expected to continue. Compared to the peaks of the bull markets in 2007, 2015, and 2021, the CSI 300 index has only reached the mid-stage, with current index levels significantly lower than previous highs. The current risk premium of the CSI 300 is 5.27%, which is higher than the 2.5% level seen in previous bull markets. Additionally, the ratios of total A-share market capitalization to M2 and free float market capitalization to household deposits are both near historical averages, indicating that there is still ample space and opportunity for the market [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4] Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in performance, with a revenue of 9.63 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.61%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 0.12 billion yuan, up 1.65% year-on-year [1] - The core business is experiencing rapid growth, particularly the Avatar product line, which saw a 43% increase in sales year-on-year. The domestic market is strong due to the large-scale promotion of Avatar products [2] - The company is expanding its international market presence with a new production line for Avatar low-carbon wheels in Thailand, expected to be operational by the end of 2025. The company has secured multiple overseas projects with significant sales potential [2] - Profitability is improving, with a gross margin of 14.31% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 6.07 percentage points year-on-year. R&D expenses have also increased significantly, supporting ongoing innovation [3] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 30.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.91%, and a net profit of 0.42 billion yuan, up 29.77% year-on-year [1] - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 40.82 billion yuan, 56.04 billion yuan, and 83.13 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 0.52 billion yuan, 2.06 billion yuan, and 3.54 billion yuan [9][17] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 19.00% in 2025 and reach 20.50% in 2026 and 2027 [17] Business Development - The company is focusing on new materials and expanding into emerging industries such as robotics and low-altitude economy, leveraging its proprietary Avatar niobium micro-alloy materials [7][8] - The Avatar niobium micro-alloy material offers advantages such as high strength, low cost, and low carbon emissions, making it suitable for various applications, including intelligent robots and low-altitude flying vehicles [7][8] - The company has made significant progress in developing structural components for robots, with plans for mass production expected within the year [8]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, silver production increased by 33.3% quarter-on-quarter to 7.28 million ounces (226.43 tons), and by 21.0% year-on-year. The total silver production for 2025 was 22.84 million ounces (710.40 tons), reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year increase [2][6] - Gold production in Q4 2025 was 19.78 thousand ounces (6.15 tons), a 7.8% increase quarter-on-quarter but a decrease of 11.7% year-on-year. The total gold production for 2025 was 74.22 thousand ounces (23.09 tons), down 16.8% year-on-year [2][3] - Zinc production in Q4 2025 was 16.8 thousand tons, up 33.3% quarter-on-quarter and 19.1% year-on-year, with total zinc production for 2025 at 55.9 thousand tons, an increase of 23.9% year-on-year [2][7] - Lead production in Q4 2025 was 8.2 thousand tons, a 32.3% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 34.4% increase year-on-year, with total lead production for 2025 at 27.0 thousand tons, up 29.8% year-on-year [2][7] - Copper production in Q4 2025 remained flat at 800 tons, but decreased by 20.0% year-on-year, with total copper production for 2025 at 3,000 tons, down 42.3% year-on-year [3][7] 2026 Guidance - The company expects silver production in 2026 to be between 25 million and 27 million ounces, and gold production to be between 700 thousand and 750 thousand ounces, with production concentrated in the second half of the year [4] - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for the silver segment is projected to be between $15.75 and $18.25 per ounce, while for the gold segment, it is expected to be between $1,700 and $1,850 per ounce [4] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are planned to be between $515 million and $550 million, with sustaining capital expenditures between $320 million and $340 million, and project capital expenditures between $195 million and $210 million [4][10] - The company plans to allocate approximately $132 million to $135 million for exploration activities, with a total drilling target of 600,000 meters [4]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the production of alumina increased by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter to 2.481 million tons, while the production of primary aluminum rose by 4.3% to 604,000 tons, primarily due to the successful restart of the San Ciprián electrolytic aluminum plant in Spain [2][3] - The average realized price for third-party sales of alumina decreased by 46.4% year-on-year to $341 per ton, while the average price for primary aluminum increased by 24.7% year-on-year to $3,749 per ton [3][9] - The company's total revenue for Q4 2025 was $3.449 billion, reflecting a 15.2% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 1.1% decrease year-on-year [9][11] Summary by Sections Production and Operations - In Q4 2025, bauxite production was 9.4 million tons, with third-party bauxite shipments at 2.4 million tons, showing a 41.2% increase quarter-on-quarter [2][5] - The total alumina production for 2025 was 9.640 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year, while the total primary aluminum production for 2025 was 2.319 million tons, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year [6][8] Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, the net profit attributable to Alcoa was $226 million, a decrease of 2.6% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 11.9% year-on-year [11][27] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $546 million, reflecting a significant increase due to rising aluminum prices and the absence of certain one-time charges from the previous quarter [12][20] Future Outlook - For 2026, the alumina business is expected to produce between 9.7 million and 9.9 million tons, with aluminum production projected to be between 240,000 and 260,000 tons [23][24] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to face challenges, including a $30 million negative impact on adjusted EBITDA due to routine maintenance and price declines in bauxite procurement agreements [23][24]