证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 美国半导体关税政策引发费城半导体波动加大 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点: 受到特朗普关于美国半导体关税态度 的影响，本周美股市场先扬后抑，费城半导体指数在后半周波 动加大。由于特朗普表示打算加征半导体关税，周五费城半导 体单日下跌 2.26%，应用材料、科天半导体、拉姆研究等等公 司回调幅度较大。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率仍有 36.5， 市盈率仍然处于偏高位水平；费城半导体指数市盈率进一步上 升至 51.9，仍然处于 50 以上的高位阶段；美国科技股权重占比 较大的纳斯达克指数的市盈率仍然有 41.5，处于高于 40 的偏高 位区间，由于美股科技股估值较高存在需要消化估值的可能 性，以及美股大型科技巨头的基本面重大转折风口尚未出现， 叠加特朗普时期美国经济和贸易等领域政策的不确定性，美股 科技股仍然容易出现承压；纳斯达克指数、费城半导体指数和 TAMAMA 等美股科技指数仍然中期维度仍然容易出现调整。目 前标普 5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate market in Beijing showed a positive signal with an increase in the first - week transaction volume after the policy implementation, but the policy's sustainability remains to be observed. The policy intensity in Beijing is between that of Guangzhou and Shanghai. The key lies in whether the market heat can continue and if the transaction volume can stabilize at a higher level after the low - base effect fades [4][5]. - Overall, the real - estate market still faces challenges, with both second - hand and new - home transactions showing a mixed performance in different cities and city - tiers, and the year - on - year decline in transactions being a common phenomenon [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Second - hand Housing Market - **Overall Situation**: In the week from August 8 - 14, the second - hand housing transaction area in 15 cities was 1.9 million square meters, with a 4% week - on - week increase and a 4% year - on - year decrease, having declined for ten consecutive weeks. From August 1 - 14, the year - on - year decrease was 3%, slightly better than July's - 5% [1]. - **By City - Tier**: - **First - tier Cities**: The week - on - week transaction area increased by 8% after a decline, and the year - on - year increase was 4% after eight consecutive weeks of decline. Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increased by 17%, 3%, and 3% respectively week - on - week. Year - on - year, Shenzhen and Shanghai increased by 9% and 6% respectively, while Beijing remained flat [1]. - **Second - tier Cities**: After three consecutive weeks of decline, the week - on - week transaction area increased slightly by 1%. Some cities like Hangzhou and Xiamen increased, while others like Nanning and Qingdao decreased. Year - on - year, the decline was 8% [2]. - **Third - tier Cities**: After two consecutive weeks of decline, the week - on - week transaction area increased slightly by 4%. Some cities like Dongguan and Foshan increased, while others like Yangzhou and Jiangmen decreased. Year - on - year, the decline was 12% [2]. 3.2 New - home Market - **Overall Situation**: In the week from August 8 - 14, the new - home transaction area in 38 cities was 1.84 million square meters, with a 1% week - on - week decline and a 15% year - on - year decrease, having declined for ten consecutive weeks. From August 1 - 14, the year - on - year decrease was 14%, slightly better than July's - 17% [2]. - **By City - Tier**: - **First - tier Cities**: The week - on - week transaction area decreased by 2% after two consecutive weeks of decline, and the year - on - year decline was 34%. Beijing increased by 53% week - on - week, while Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased. Year - on - year, all cities decreased, with Shenzhen having the largest decline of 57% [3]. - **Second - tier Cities**: The week - on - week transaction area decreased by 9% after two consecutive weeks of decline. Some cities like Hangzhou, Suzhou, and Jinan increased, while others like Qingdao, Wuhan, and Chengdu decreased. Year - on - year, the decline was 12% [2][3]. - **Third - tier Cities**: The week - on - week transaction area increased by 17%. Some cities like Meishan, Quzhou, Foshan, and Wenzhou had significant increases. Year - on - year, there was a 4% increase [3]. 3.3 Key City Observations - **First - tier Cities**: - **Second - hand Housing**: In the week from August 8 - 14, the transaction area in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai increased week - on - week. Compared with last year's peak, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai's weekly transaction volumes were 58%, 46%, and 61% of the peak respectively. Year - on - year, Shanghai and Shenzhen increased, while Beijing was flat [24]. - **New - homes**: In the week from August 8 - 14, Beijing increased by 53% week - on - week, while Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased. Compared with last year's peak, all cities were at a low level. Year - on - year, all cities decreased, with Shenzhen having the largest decline [24]. - **Other Key Cities**: - **Hangzhou**: In the week from August 8 - 14, the second - hand and new - home transaction areas increased by 13% and 26% respectively compared with the previous week, equivalent to 48% and 11% of the 2024 peak [25]. - **Chengdu**: In the week from August 8 - 14, the second - hand housing transaction area increased by 7%, and the new - home transaction area decreased by 4%, equivalent to 52% and 39% of the 2024 peak [25]. 3.4 Housing Price Observation - **Second - hand Housing in First - tier Cities (July)**: The price index decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, with the decline expanding compared to June. Year - on - year, it decreased by 3.4%, having declined for 26 consecutive months since June 2023. Guangzhou had a relatively high year - on - year decline of 6.0%, while Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai decreased by 2.9%, 2.5%, and 2.2% respectively [54]. - **New - homes in First - tier Cities (July)**: The price index decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. Year - on - year, it decreased by 1.1%, with the decline narrowing. Since December 2023, it has declined for 20 consecutive months. Guangzhou, Beijing, and Shenzhen decreased, while Shanghai increased [54].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - On reported record net sales of 749 million Swiss Francs for FY25Q2, a 32% increase (currency neutral +38%), exceeding market expectations, driven by strong DTC performance and growth in the Asia-Pacific region [2][18] - Gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 61.5%, benefiting from a higher DTC share, reduced shipping costs, and a weaker dollar [2][18] - The company incurred a net loss of 41 million Swiss Francs, with a net profit margin declining from 5.4% to -5.5%, primarily due to a 140 million Swiss Franc foreign exchange loss [2][18] - Revenue growth by region: EMEA +42.92%, Americas +16.84%, Asia-Pacific +101.35% [2][18] - DTC revenue increased by 54.3% to 310 million Swiss Francs, with DTC share rising to a historical high of 41.1% [2][18] - The company raised its FY25 revenue growth guidance to 31% (previously 28%) and adjusted gross margin guidance to 60.5%-61% [2][18] Summary by Sections Company Performance - Yu Yuan Group reported H1 2025 revenue of 406 million USD, a 1.1% increase, but net profit decreased by 7.2% [3][19] - 361 Degrees reported H1 2025 revenue of 580 million CNY, an 11% increase, with net profit rising by 8.6% [3][19] - Li Ning reported H1 2025 revenue of 173 million CNY, a 7.9% increase, but net profit fell by 13.4% [4][20] - Bailing Dongfang reported H1 2025 revenue of 359.1 million CNY, a 9.99% decrease, but net profit increased by 67.53% [4][21] Market Trends - The textile and apparel sector underperformed, with the SW textile and apparel index down 1%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.7% [24] - Cotton prices in China increased by 1.43% this week, with the 3128B index at 15,214 CNY/ton [8][38] - The textile and apparel export for January to July 2025 grew by 0.53%, totaling 170.74 billion USD [55] Consumer Insights - Online sales data from Taobao and Tmall showed improvements in July 2025 for sports and leisure apparel, with notable growth from brands like Baoxini [22][22] - The overall retail sales in China for January to July 2025 increased by 4.8%, with online retail sales growing by 9.2% [22][25]

Economic Performance - July industrial added value growth slowed to 5.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, while retail sales growth fell to 3.7% from 4.8%[2][3] - The weighted year-on-year growth rate of investment, retail, and export delivery value dropped to -0.1%, a decrease of 3 percentage points compared to the previous year[1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The gap between supply and demand indicators reached 5.8 percentage points, the highest in recent years, indicating a significant demand shortfall[1] - July's industrial production and sales rate was 97.1%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, showing a slight improvement compared to the previous month's decline of 0.3 percentage points[1] Export and Retail Trends - Export delivery value growth decreased to 0.8% in July from 4.0% in June, contributing approximately 0.09 percentage points to industrial added value growth, a drop of 0.35 percentage points from June[2] - Automotive retail sales plummeted to -1.5% in July, significantly impacting overall retail performance, which saw a reduction of 0.4 percentage points in its contribution[3] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth for January to July was 1.6%, with a notable decline of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, while equipment investment grew by 15.2%, down 2.1 percentage points[4] - July's fixed asset investment year-on-year dropped to -5.3%, influenced by extreme weather conditions affecting outdoor construction activities[4] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area and sales value in July fell by 7.8% and 14.1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a continued weakness in the sector[5] - New residential prices in July saw a month-on-month decline of 0.3%, with second-hand housing prices dropping by 0.5%, reflecting ongoing market challenges[5] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic data for July indicates a slowdown, with production showing resilience while demand remains weak[6] - The potential for new economic policies may arise in September and October, particularly in the real estate sector, as authorities seek to stabilize the market[5][8]

Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - Circle's quarterly report highlights the stability of the stablecoin industry, showing a revenue of $658 million for Q2 2025, a 53% year-on-year increase, despite a net loss of $482 million due to IPO-related non-cash expenses [2] - Bullish's successful debut on the NYSE with a closing price of $68, up nearly 84% from its $37 issue price, reflects the growth potential of compliant crypto platforms [3] - The launch of Circle's Arc public chain and Coinbase's partnership with Mercury aim to reshape the competitive landscape of stablecoins, enhancing USDC's role as an ecosystem infrastructure [4] Summary by Sections Circle's Quarterly Report - Circle reported Q2 2025 revenue of $658 million, a 53% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of $482 million due to IPO-related expenses [2] - The reserve return rate remains stable at 4.1%, with USDC's daily platform share at 7.4%, indicating a solid foundation for digital finance [2] Bullish's Market Performance - Bullish's first-quarter data shows a spot trading volume of $647 billion and perpetual contracts of $111 billion, with a 78% year-on-year increase in trading volume [3] - The platform's support for USDC trading enhances asset options, aligning with traditional finance's demand for compliant assets [3] Arc Public Chain and Coinbase Partnership - Circle's Arc public chain is designed for USDC, featuring high scalability and privacy functions, aiming to establish a technological barrier in the stablecoin sector [4] - The collaboration with Coinbase aims to reduce USDC circulation costs, promoting the evolution of stablecoins from payment tools to ecosystem infrastructure [4] Investment Recommendations - Beneficial targets include companies like Zhongyou Capital, Zhongyin Hong Kong, and Circle, among others [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a pragmatic slowdown in Q2, reducing channel fund occupation and increasing financial support for its sauce-flavored liquor distributors [3] - The company achieved a revenue of 893.89 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 454.03 billion yuan, up 8.89% year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on long-term development by slowing down the growth of its series liquor and strengthening its self-operated store system while continuing its globalization strategy [4] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 387.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.28%, and a net profit of 185.55 billion yuan, up 5.25% year-on-year, indicating a pragmatic approach in response to weakening demand [3] - The cash flow from sales in Q2 2025 was 389.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.64% year-on-year, but the cash collection rate remained above 1, indicating good liquidity [3] - The company’s gross profit margin in Q2 2025 was 90.63%, a slight decrease of 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price inversions in non-standard products [6] Sales and Distribution - The revenue from the company's flagship liquor reached 320.32 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.99%, while the revenue from series liquor declined by 6.53% [4] - The company has 2,280 domestic distributors as of Q2 2025, with a net addition of 160 distributors in H1, indicating a strong focus on expanding the series liquor distribution network [5] - The overseas revenue increased by 31.29% year-on-year, reflecting the successful implementation of the company's globalization strategy [5] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s net profit margin in Q2 2025 was 50.79%, a decrease of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the slower profit growth compared to revenue growth [6] - The total expenses increased, with the tax and additional fees rate at 17.09%, up 0.07 percentage points year-on-year, while the total expense rate rose to 8.72%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points year-on-year [6] Future Outlook - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecast due to the pragmatic slowdown in Q2 and the weak industry demand, but it still aims for a 9% revenue growth target for the year [7] - The revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1898.50 billion yuan, 1997.91 billion yuan, and 2068.43 billion yuan respectively, while net profit estimates have been revised to 935.45 billion yuan, 990.17 billion yuan, and 1029.35 billion yuan [7]

Market Performance - On August 14, the equity market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3666.44, down 0.46% [1] - The CSI 300 Index also fell slightly by 0.08%, closing at 4173.31 [1] - The domestic commodity market saw a further cooling of sentiment, with major products like coking coal and polysilicon leading the declines, down 6.3% and 3.1% respectively [2][3] Market Trends - The current market correction is viewed as part of a cycle that began on July 18, when the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced growth stabilization plans [3] - Key commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon have seen their maximum gains shrink significantly, indicating a loss of momentum [3] - The futures prices of coking coal and glass have shown signs of improvement, suggesting that market participants are anticipating a tightening of supply in the future [3] Investment Sentiment - The report suggests that the rapid decline driven by sentiment may be nearing its end, with signs of renewed buying interest from long positions after the recent pullback [4] - The market is expected to transition from a phase of broad declines to a more differentiated performance based on the fundamentals of individual commodities [4] - The low interest rates are maintaining stability in the funding environment, with the central bank continuing to implement liquidity measures [5] Sector Analysis - The "anti-involution" theme has led to widespread declines in related sectors, with indices for photovoltaic equipment, steel, and coal all showing negative performance [2][3] - The report highlights that the recent downturn in coking coal and polysilicon is primarily due to overall market sentiment rather than significant deterioration in their fundamentals [2] - The report also notes that the small-cap stocks have underperformed, indicating a potential shift in market style [8][10] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring three key indicators: the implied volatility of the market, the performance of small-cap indices, and the trends in overseas computing power chains [10] - A significant drop in leveraged funds could signal the beginning of a more pronounced adjustment period for the market [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report indicates an improvement in net profit driven by domestic and international factors, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [2][6] - The company has shown resilience in its financial performance despite challenges such as tariff impacts and weak demand for raw materials [2][3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.15 yuan per share, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 57.67% and an annualized dividend yield of 5.37% [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 3.591 billion, 390 million, and 360 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of -9.99%, 67.53%, and 236.33% [2] - In the second quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.860 billion yuan, net profit of 217 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 213 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of -13.70%, 42.03%, and 85.94% [2] - The company's gross margin and net profit margin for the first half of 2025 were 15.20% and 10.86%, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 5.20 and 5.03 percentage points [4] Regional Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue from international and domestic markets was 2.722 billion and 869 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 9.08% and 12.71% [3] - The net profit margin for the company's operations in Vietnam improved to 10.74%, a year-on-year increase of 3.67 percentage points, indicating a recovery in profitability since the second quarter of 2024 [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable tariff environment, with 77% of its production capacity located in Vietnam, which may lead to an increase in order share [6] - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 8.144 billion, 8.648 billion, and 9.158 billion yuan, respectively [6][7] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are revised to 732 million, 843 million, and 965 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 0.49, 0.56, and 0.64 yuan [7][8]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - Eye tracking is expected to become one of the core interaction methods for XR glasses, enabling "gaze as interaction" for intelligent control [4][22] - The integration of eye tracking technology with XR glasses enhances user experience through various functionalities such as gaze point rendering, identity verification, convergence adjustment, interpupillary distance adjustment, refractive correction, human-computer interaction, virtual socializing, and health monitoring [2][22] - Major manufacturers are rapidly deploying eye tracking technology, with notable products like Apple's Vision Pro and Meta's Aria Gen 2 incorporating this feature, indicating a trend towards broader adoption across entertainment, medical, industrial, and educational sectors [2][41] Summary by Sections Eye Tracking Technology - Eye tracking utilizes sensors like infrared cameras to capture and analyze eye movement information, converting physiological characteristics into computable data for real-time gaze direction and fixation point measurement [10][12] - The primary eye tracking methods include pupil-corneal reflection, retinal imaging, 3D model reconstruction, and MEMS-based techniques [10][11] Eye Tracking in XR Glasses - Eye tracking enhances XR devices by providing new interaction methods, significantly improving user experience [22] - The technology allows for gaze point rendering, which optimizes system resources by rendering high-resolution images only in the user's focal area, thus improving performance and reducing power consumption [24] - Eye tracking can also facilitate automatic adjustments for interpupillary distance and refractive correction, enhancing comfort and usability for diverse users [27][28] Key Manufacturers - Tobii, a leader in eye tracking technology, has developed multiple products and partnerships, achieving eye tracking precision of 0.6° and collaborating with major companies like HTC and Sony [3][54] - Seveninvensun has introduced the aGlass VR eye tracking module and the AI smart glasses prototype "Xiao Qi," featuring low power consumption and high precision [3][71] - GoerTek has launched high-precision AR smart glasses with an average accuracy of 0.5° and a response delay of less than 3ms [3][74] Investment Recommendations - Eye tracking is poised to accelerate penetration in XR glasses, enhancing user experience and presenting investment opportunities in companies like Tobii, Seveninvensun (not publicly listed), and GoerTek, as well as camera module suppliers like Juguang Technology and OmniVision [4][78]

Loan and Financing Data - New social financing (社融) in July was 11,600 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3,893 billion CNY, but below the market expectation of 14,100 billion CNY[1] - New RMB loans turned negative at -500 billion CNY, a decline of 3,100 billion CNY year-on-year, marking the first negative value since July 2005[1] - The scale of new government bonds reached 12,440 billion CNY in July, an increase of 5,559 billion CNY year-on-year, contributing significantly to new social financing[2] Economic Demand and Loan Trends - New loans to the real economy fell sharply to -4,263 billion CNY, setting a historical low since data collection began[2] - New household loans were -4,893 billion CNY, a decrease of 2,793 billion CNY year-on-year, indicating weak consumer demand[3] - New corporate loans were 600 billion CNY, with short-term loans at -5,500 billion CNY and medium to long-term loans at -2,600 billion CNY, the latter marking the first negative value since August 2016[4] Financial Market Insights - M1 money supply grew by 5.6% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.3%, but this growth is attributed to a low base effect rather than active deposit mobilization[5] - Non-bank financial institutions saw an increase in deposits by 2,100 billion CNY, while household deposits decreased by 1,100 billion CNY, suggesting a shift of funds from banks to non-bank entities[6] - The overall financial data for July indicates a slow recovery in demand, necessitating potential monetary easing measures to stimulate economic activity[6]