1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the scale of wealth management may grow steadily, but the proportion of credit bond allocation is likely to decline. The behavior of funds will be the core indicator of the credit bond market, and the concentrated opening of amortized bond funds may boost the demand for credit bonds with specific maturities. The growth rate of credit bond ETFs may slow down [1][2][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2026 Wealth Management Scale May Grow Steadily, Credit Bond Allocation Proportion Is Hard to Rise - **2026 wealth management scale growth may be in the range of 2.7 - 3.4 trillion yuan**: From 2024 - 2025, the scale of bank wealth management grew steadily, with annual increments exceeding 3 trillion yuan. The core driver was asset re - allocation during the downward cycle of deposit rates. It is estimated that the growth of wealth management scale in 2026 may be in the range of 2.7 - 3.4 trillion yuan [2][13][24] - **The proportion of credit bond allocation in wealth management shows a downward trend**: In 2025, due to the rectification of net - value smoothing methods, the proportion of bond allocation and credit bond allocation in wealth management decreased. In 2026, in the context of full net - value management and a low - spread environment, the proportion of credit bond allocation may be difficult to increase [26] - **Wealth management bond allocation shows seasonal characteristics and focuses on coupon cost - effectiveness**: In 2025, the willingness of wealth management to increase credit bond allocation decreased, mainly concentrating on bonds within 3 years. The bond allocation rhythm of wealth management is affected by scale changes and shows seasonal characteristics [30] - **The net purchase of inter - bank certificates of deposit by other asset management products exceeded that of credit bonds**: In 2025, the proportion of net purchases of credit bonds by other asset management products decreased significantly, while they increased the allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit, which reflects the wealth management's large - scale increase in inter - bank certificates of deposit through entrusted asset management products for liquidity management [35][36] 3.2 In 2026, Fund Behavior Is the Core Indicator of the Credit Bond Market - **In 2026, the growth rate of bond fund scale may be under pressure**: The new regulations on fund sales fees in December 2025 may weaken the attractiveness of short - term bond funds, and if the pattern of a strong stock market and a weak bond market continues in 2026, it may suppress the growth of bond fund scale [4][43] - **The proportion of funds allocating credit bonds increased, and the duration operation is flexible**: In 2025, the willingness of funds to increase credit bond allocation increased, mainly due to the large expansion of credit bond ETFs and the relative advantage of credit bond coupon strategies in a volatile market. Funds mainly net - bought credit bonds within 5 years in 2025, with flexible duration operations [50][53] - **The concentrated opening of amortized bond funds may drive the demand for credit bond allocation with specific maturities**: In 2026, the concentrated opening of amortized bond funds is expected to exceed 60 billion yuan. If some products turn to a credit - style, it may boost the demand for credit bonds with corresponding maturities, especially medium - to high - grade 5 - year and 3 - year varieties [6][63] - **The growth rate of credit bond ETF scale may slow down**: In 2025, credit bond ETFs achieved leap - forward development, but in 2026, it may be difficult to reproduce the large - scale new issuance, and the scale growth may mainly rely on existing products to attract incremental funds. The scale change of credit bond ETFs is also greatly affected by interest rate trends [6][67][68]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：又见天量成交 | | | 1 月 12 日，权益市场放量上涨。万得全 A上涨 1.72%，全天成交额 3.64 万亿元，较上周五（1 月 9 日）放 量 4922 亿元。港股方面，恒生指数上涨 1.44%，恒生科技上涨 3.10%。南向资金净流入 73.06 亿港元，其中快 手、腾讯控股分别净流入 22.45 亿港元和 20.12 亿港元，而中国移动净流出 10.30 亿港元。 成交额创历史新高，市场情绪积极。A 股成交额以 3.64 万亿元创历史新高，突破了 924 行情创下的前高 3.48 万亿元。值得注意的是，隐含波动率大幅上涨。截至 1月 12 日，沪 300ETF IV 指数处于 924 行情以来的 80%分 位数，反映投机情绪迅速升温，驱动行情走强的同时，短期波动的概率放大。本轮隐含波动率的走势与 25 年 8 月 相似，在当时的上涨行情中，隐含波动率的分位数迅速上升至 80%之上后回落，沪深 300 下跌约 3%。 题材方面，AI应用和商业航天为今日主线。AI应用的上 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a retail revenue growth of approximately 10% year-on-year for its main brand and children's clothing in Q4 2025, with e-commerce platform sales also showing high double-digit growth [2][3] - The company maintains a brand strategy focused on technology and quality, launching new products across various categories, including running, basketball, and outdoor gear [4] - The company has established strategic partnerships to enhance brand visibility and technological integration, including collaborations with the Asian Olympic Council and other institutions [5][6] - The expansion of the company's retail network includes the opening of 126 super stores in mainland China and the first overseas store in Cambodia, indicating a commitment to both domestic and international growth [7] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 11.62 billion, 13.35 billion, and 15.32 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 1.39 billion, 1.63 billion, and 1.87 billion yuan for the same years [9][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.67, 0.79, and 0.91 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 7.68, 6.57, and 5.72 [9][11]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The sentiment in the pork market has significantly improved, with a notable reduction in losses for pig farming. The average price of live pigs is currently 12.55 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased by 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year, indicating a steady adjustment in pig production capacity [2][12] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a nationwide inspection of winter crop seeds to ensure safety for the upcoming spring and summer planting seasons. This includes a focus on key crops such as corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables. The commercialization of genetically modified seeds is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency rates for critical varieties [1][11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture is conducting inspections to ensure seed quality and compliance, which is crucial for agricultural production safety. The emphasis on genetically modified technology is expected to revolutionize yield improvements, with companies like Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development likely to benefit [1][11] Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 12.55 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in slaughter volume by 17.4% year-on-year. The market sentiment has improved significantly, with a reduction in losses for self-bred and purchased pig farming, indicating a potential for recovery in the sector. Recommended stocks include companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2353.51 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.09% week-on-week. The international price is 5.21 USD/bushel, up 2.11% [26][27] - Wheat: The domestic average price is 2513.62 CNY/ton, down 0.09% week-on-week. The international price is 5.82 USD/bushel, down 0.13% [29][31] - Soybeans: The domestic average price is 4048.42 CNY/ton, up 0.63% week-on-week. The international price is 405.95 USD/ton, up 0.74% [39][43] - Cotton: The average price in Xinjiang is 15530.00 CNY/ton, up 0.84% week-on-week [45][49] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.64 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.76%. The prices for chicken feed and egg-laying hen feed remain stable [52][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first week of 2026 (January 5 - 9), the China Securities REITs Total Return Index closed at 1028.93 points, rising 1.89% weekly, with the market volume increasing and prices rising. The total market capitalization of 78 listed REITs reached 223.3 billion yuan, a 2.23% increase from the previous period, and the tradable market capitalization was 123 billion yuan [1][12]. - In the secondary market, various assets generally rose, and trading activity significantly increased. Except for the rental housing sector, the other sectors had a growth rate of 1.4 - 4.4%. The leading sectors in terms of growth were new - type facilities (+4.41%), consumer facilities (+3.15%), and industrial parks (+3.14%) [2][20]. - In the primary market, on January 9, 2026, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange officially accepted the application for the China Aviation Beijing Changbao Rental Housing REIT [6][49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market: General Rise of Various Assets and Significant Increase in Trading Activity - **Overall Market Performance**: The China Securities REITs Total Return Index rose 1.89% weekly, and the average daily trading volume and turnover from Monday to Friday increased by 75.45% and 69.73% respectively compared to the previous period [1][12]. - **Sector - by - Sector Performance** - **Data Center (IDC) Sector**: Runze Technology Data Center and万国 Data Center rose 5.29% and 2.80% respectively. Runze Technology's average daily turnover rate increased by 0.38pct to 1%. The dynamic distribution rates of two IDC REITs dropped to 3.63% and 3.32% respectively, and attention could be paid to subsequent asset fluctuations [2][23]. - **Consumer Infrastructure Sector**: All individual bonds in this sector rose. With high occupancy rates and slightly rising rental prices, and approaching traditional consumer peak seasons like the Spring Festival, the fundamentals of consumer REITs are expected to perform well. However, it should be noted that 41.32% of the shares of E Fund Huawai Market REIT will be unlocked on January 24, 2026 [3][25]. - **Industrial Park Sector**: The sector rose 3.14% this week, with all individual bonds rising. Although some parks faced issues such as tenant exits or reduced rental areas, they stabilized occupancy rates through price - for - volume strategies. The average distribution rate of industrial parks is 4.60%, significantly higher than other rental - type REITs and the reference value of 3.30%. Attention could be paid to parks with stable fundamentals, income distribution adjustment mechanisms, and high distribution rates [3][28]. - **Rental Housing Sector**: The sector had mixed performance this week, with 5 rising and 3 falling. China Resources Youchao's expansion shares are about to be listed, and its current individual bond distribution rate of 3.35% is still among the top in the sector and can be continuously monitored [4][34]. - **Warehousing and Logistics Sector**: The sector rose 2.23% this week. There were significant differences in the performance of sub - markets. Some projects faced supply shocks, which might lead to a decline in rental income and dividend - paying ability [4][37]. 3.2 Primary Market: Shenzhen Stock Exchange Accepts China Aviation Beijing Changbao Rental Housing REIT - On January 9, 2026, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange officially accepted the application for the China Aviation Beijing Changbao Rental Housing REIT. The project plans to hold assets in Yilan Xinchen, Guorui Xiyuan, and Future Rongshang Jiayuan in Changping District, Beijing. As of September 30, 2025, the occupancy rates of these projects were 96.24%, 96.20%, and 58.86% respectively, with an estimated total value of 847 million yuan [6][49][51]. - As of January 9, 2026, there was 1 project issued but not yet listed, 11 projects with feedback, and 4 projects accepted by the exchange [7][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 4 - 9, 2026, bond market yields first rose and then fell. Interest - rate bond yields increased across the board, and credit bonds became a safe - haven in the bond market with narrowing credit spreads. AA and below credit spreads mostly narrowed by 3 - 6bp [1][9]. - After the holiday, bond fund redemptions led to large - scale selling of bonds in the secondary market, mainly interest - rate bonds and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, with a slight increase of 54.1 billion yuan in general credit bonds. Currently, the redemptions of impulsive funds have ended [1][9]. - The allocation demand for general credit bonds from financial management, insurance, money funds, and other asset management institutions has rebounded. Most non - bank institutions are still cautious about the maturity of credit bonds they buy, but other asset management institutions have been snapping up 7 - 10 - year credit bonds since mid - December 2025 [2][10]. - In the short term, due to the increase in market risk appetite during the spring rally, it is difficult to have a trending bond market, and the market may still favor the coupon strategy. It is recommended to focus on medium - and short - term coupon - rich varieties [2][13]. - Bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds still have room for repair. For trading portfolios, it is recommended to control positions; for allocation portfolios with stable liability ends, 3 - 5 - year Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have cost - effectiveness [3][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 City Investment Bonds: Jiangsu and Zhejiang County - Level Platforms Contribute to Net Financing Increment, Short - Term Bonds are Preferred - From January 1 - 11, 2026, the net financing of city investment bonds was positive, mainly contributed by county - level platforms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The primary issuance sentiment improved, and the proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times increased from 35% to 46% [25]. - In terms of issuance interest rates, there was a divergence among different terms. The medium - and short - term rates stabilized, while the long - term rates continued to rise. The weighted average issuance interest rates for different terms showed different trends compared to the previous month [25]. - In the secondary market, city investment bonds remained resilient. Low - grade short - term bonds performed well, while high - grade 3 - 5 - year bonds performed poorly. The average daily trading volume was relatively high, and short - term, weak - quality varieties were more popular [28][32]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds: Net Financing Decreased Year - on - Year, and the Issuance Interest Rates for Medium - and Long - Term Bonds Continued to Rise - From January 1 - 11, 2026, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds decreased year - on - year. The food and beverage, construction and decoration, and comprehensive industries had relatively large net financing scales. The issuance sentiment improved [34]. - The proportion of short - term issuance increased significantly. The issuance interest rates for 3 - year and shorter terms decreased, while those for 3 - 5 - year and 5 - year and above terms increased. The buying sentiment from brokers continued to weaken, and the trading duration lengthened [34][36]. 3.3 Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds: Spreads Narrowed Across the Board, and Trading Sentiment Warmed Up - From January 4 - 9, 2026, there were no new bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds issued. In the secondary market, yields generally declined by 0 - 4bp, and spreads narrowed across the board. The trading sentiment warmed up slightly [39][42].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The scale of credit - bond ETFs has shown a trend of "rising first and then falling." From mid - December 2025 to the end of the year, the scale rose from 509.2 billion yuan to 615.2 billion yuan, and then dropped to 556.1 billion yuan on January 9, 2026 [1]. - The weighted duration of PCF holding bonds in most credit - bond ETFs has decreased, and the static yield has increased due to bond market adjustments. The median static yield of science - innovation bond ETFs rose by 4bp to 1.90%, and that of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs rose by 2bp to 1.95% [2]. - As the scale of credit - bond ETFs decreased, the corresponding positions were reduced, mainly short - term bonds. Science - innovation bond ETFs mainly reduced positions in energy, brokerage, and public utilities, while benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs were more diversified in their reductions [2]. - The "non - component bond - component bond" spread of science - innovation bond ETFs first widened and then narrowed, and the trading activity decreased after the scale decline [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Scale and Performance - On January 9, 2026, the total scale of 35 credit - bond ETFs was 556.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 59.1 billion yuan compared to December 31, 2025. Among them, the scale of science - innovation bond ETFs increased by 46 billion yuan compared to December 12, 2025, with a growth rate of 17%, and the scale of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs changed little [1][5]. - In science - innovation bond ETFs, Yin Hua had the highest growth rate of 104%, with a scale increase of 11.3 billion yuan, followed by Harvest, Huatai - PineBridge, and Industrial Fund, all with a scale increase of more than 4 billion yuan and a growth rate of over 25% [1]. Duration and Yield - This week, 19 out of 24 science - innovation bond ETFs continued to slightly reduce their duration, accounting for 79%, with a median decline of 0.03 years. Among them, GF Science - innovation Bond ETF had the largest decline of 0.19 years to 2.9 years. Only 4 products increased their duration, with the highest increase of 0.14 years. Among 8 benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs, 6 reduced their duration, with a median decline of 0.12 years [2]. Valuation and Trading Activity - As the scale of science - innovation bond ETFs "rose first and then fell," the median of the "non - component bond - component bond" spread first widened and then narrowed. It rose to 10.3bp at the end of December and then dropped to 6.5bp on January 9, 2026 [3]. - After the scale decline, the proportion of the trading volume of science - innovation bond ETF component bonds/credit bonds decreased from 8.2% to 5.5%, and the trading activity declined [3]. Position Reduction - With the decline in the scale of credit - bond ETFs, the corresponding positions were reduced. The reduced bonds were mainly short - term. Science - innovation bond ETFs mainly reduced positions in 2 - 3 - year bonds, and benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs mainly reduced positions in 0 - 3 - year bonds [2]. - In terms of industries, science - innovation bond ETFs mainly reduced positions in energy, brokerage, and public utilities, while benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs were more diversified, including medicine, rail transit, energy, and subway. The reduction was mainly in local state - owned enterprise bonds, with fewer central enterprise bonds [2].

Group 1: Company Listings and Financial Performance - Zhiyuan officially listed on January 8, 2026, becoming the world's first publicly traded company focused on general artificial intelligence (AGI) with a market capitalization of HKD 52.83 billion at opening[10] - Zhiyuan's annual recurring revenue (ARR) from its GLM coding plan exceeds RMB 100 million (approximately USD 14 million), with over 150,000 paid developer users acquired in just three months[12] - MiniMax listed on January 9, 2026, with an issue price of HKD 165, raising HKD 4.189 billion and achieving a market valuation exceeding HKD 70 billion[20] Group 2: Revenue and User Growth - MiniMax's revenue for the first nine months of 2025 reached USD 5.343 million (approximately RMB 37.6 million), a 175% increase from the previous year[22] - MiniMax's paid user count grew from approximately 119,700 in 2023 to about 1,771,600 by September 30, 2025[24] - Zhiyuan's revenue from 2022 to 2025 showed a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 130%, with revenues of RMB 57.4 million, RMB 125 million, and RMB 312 million respectively[17] Group 3: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Zhiyuan's GLM technology is recognized as one of the few domestic models that can compete directly with the GPT system, excelling in robustness and controllability[2] - MiniMax's overseas market revenue contribution exceeded 70% in the first nine months of 2025, indicating strong international demand[23] - Zhiyuan's flagship model GLM-4.7 ranked first in both global open-source and domestic model evaluations, surpassing GPT-5.2 in a global coding assessment[16] Group 4: Strategic Investments and Future Outlook - Zhiyuan attracted significant investment from 11 cornerstone investors, raising a total of HKD 2.98 billion prior to its IPO[11] - Alibaba plans to continue substantial investments in Taobao Flash Purchase in 2026, aiming for market share growth and improved operational efficiency[25] - The Chinese instant retail market is projected to exceed RMB 1 trillion in 2026, with Alibaba increasing its focus on high-value user engagement and non-food retail[29]

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 上涨趋势确立 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ►回顾：上涨趋势进一步确立 1 月 5-9 日，类权益市场持续上涨。截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日， 万得全 A 收盘价为 6737.75，较 12 月 31 日上涨 5.11%；中证 转债同期上涨 4.45%，偏股型转债估值明显拉伸。 市场开年大涨，标志着指数脱离 10-12 月的震荡区间，中期 上涨趋势确立。同时，中盘品种受青睐，中证 500 和中证 1000 领涨。此外，热门题材不断涌现，包括脑机接口、商业 航天、半导体材料设备等。在上涨趋势进一步巩固的状态 下，资金对安全边际的需求减小，而对弹性和高度更为重 视。 ►策略：保持乐观和耐心 快速上涨之后，市场难免震荡。万得全 A 的 RSI（相对强弱指 标）已上升至 90 以上，提示短期或有波动。不过，上涨趋势 已然确立，不必对前高之上的波动过于敏感。即使行情大幅 震荡（例如 2025 年 7 月 30 日至 8 月 1 日、9 月 2-4 日），市 ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 逢高配置 [Table_Summary] ► 高波开局，利空情绪释放 新年第一周，债市经历了大幅的止盈或止损行情，这一现象在年初时 点，并不常见。异动背后，或多是情绪作祟，机构卖债的实际诉求可能并 非负债端出现了超预期波动，亦或是其他的短期用款需求。而是在 2025 年多轮调整行情的疤痕效应下，债市投资者对于眼前的各种不确定性或更 加敏感，普遍倾向于提前卸掉久期风险，年初轻装上阵。波动始于情绪， 也容易终于情绪，因而 8-9 日的债市初步修复，其实也并没有强利多逻辑 作为支撑。 观察机构久期变化，以代表性较强的利率债基久期中枢为参考，1 月 以来稳定版本（40 日滚动窗口）的久期中枢测算结果，从 3.58 年渐进回 落至 3.37 年，位于 2025 年以来 4.8%的较低分位数，且与低点 3.31 年相 差无几。灵敏版本（15 日滚动窗口）的久期中枢测算结果为 3.46 年，同 处于 2025年以来的地分位数 14.1%。两组数据均可反映，债市2026年开 局，便已经处于低风险状态，机构的担忧情 ...