证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：股市杠杆正盛 | 国内市场表现 | | --- | 复盘与思考: 8 月 6 日，股市上涨趋势不变，且成交小幅放量，但领涨板块再度轮动，债市空头情绪减弱，中间期限表现更 佳，商品市场回归常态，仅剩"反内卷"品类独自起舞。 股市，资金博弈板块切换至军工、互联网、煤炭等领域，大盘板块涨幅收窄，上证指数、沪深 300、中证红利 上涨 0.45%、0.24%、0.63%；中小微盘内部出现分化，中证 1000、中证 2000 依旧是资金博弈的热点，单日上涨 1.09%、1.19%，万得微盘股指仅上涨 0.42%；双创概念延续温和涨幅，科创 50、创业板指上涨 0.58%、0.66%。 债市，10 年国债活跃券下行 0.7bp 至 1.70%，30 年国债活跃券则持稳于 1.92%；10 年国债期货主力合约几乎持 平前一日收盘，30 年合约则下跌 0.04%。 国内商品方面，"双焦"与"双硅"延续强势，板块分化依旧。国内商品市场延续了昨日的回温势头，但行 情热度进一步向少数板块集中，整体分化格 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 6 日 [Table_Title] Kazatomprom 2025Q2 铀产量（100%基础）环比增 加 17%至 6,609 吨 U3O8，2025 年计划产量仍为 25000 - 26500 吨（100%基础） [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►2025Q2 生产经营情况 2025Q2 铀产量（100%基础）为 6,609 吨 U3O8，环比增加 17%，同比增加 14%。 2025Q2 铀权益产量为吨 3,467 吨 U3O8，环比增加 17%， 同比增加 13%。 2025Q2 集团铀销量（100%基础）为 5,065 吨 U3O8，环比 增加 98%，同比增加 1%。 2025Q2 KAP 铀销量（含集团）为 4,429 吨 U3O8，环比增 加 73% ，同比增加 1%。 2025Q2 集团平均实现价格为 60.36 美元/磅，环比上涨 10%，同比下跌 12%。 2025Q2 KAP 平均实现价格为 59 美元/磅，环比上涨 7%， 同比下跌 11%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The uranium production for Q2 2025 decreased by 23% quarter-on-quarter to 4.6 million pounds, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 359% to 321 million CAD [1][10]. - The average realized price for uranium in Q2 2025 was 57.35 USD per pound, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase but an 8% quarter-on-quarter decrease [8][22]. - The company expects an average realized price of approximately 87.00 CAD per pound for uranium in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 84.00 CAD [16]. Summary by Sections Uranium Business - **Production Volume**: In Q2 2025, the self-produced uranium was 4.6 million pounds (2088 tons), a 35% year-on-year decrease and a 23% quarter-on-quarter decrease [1][22]. - **Sales Volume**: The uranium sales volume reached 8.7 million pounds (3950 tons), marking a 40% year-on-year increase and a 26% quarter-on-quarter increase [3][22]. - **Unit Production Costs**: The cash production cost for self-produced uranium was 26.19 CAD per pound, up 54% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter [4][22]. - **Unit Procurement Costs**: The cash cost for externally procured uranium was 97 CAD per pound, down 11% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter [6][22]. - **Total Production and Procurement Costs**: The total cost for uranium production and procurement was 45.66 CAD per pound, up 8% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter [7][22]. Fuel Services Business - **Production Volume**: The fuel services business produced 3200 tons of uranium in Q2 2025, a 10% year-on-year increase but an 18% quarter-on-quarter decrease [9][22]. - **Sales Volume**: The sales volume for fuel services was 4400 tons of uranium, a 52% year-on-year increase and an 83% quarter-on-quarter increase [9][22]. - **Average Realized Price**: The average realized price for fuel services was 36.79 CAD/kg of uranium, down 8% year-on-year and 35% quarter-on-quarter [9][22]. Financial Performance - **Revenue**: The total revenue for Q2 2025 was 877 million CAD, a 47% year-on-year increase and an 11% quarter-on-quarter increase [10][25]. - **Gross Profit**: Gross profit for Q2 2025 was 257 million CAD, a 47% year-on-year increase but a 5% quarter-on-quarter decrease [10][25]. - **Net Earnings**: Net earnings attributable to equity holders were 321 million CAD, a significant increase of over 100% year-on-year and a 359% increase quarter-on-quarter [10][25]. - **Adjusted EBITDA**: The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was 673 million CAD, a 96% year-on-year increase [25]. Future Guidance - **Uranium Production Outlook**: The company anticipates uranium production from McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake to be 18 million pounds in 2025, with potential risks related to land freezing and skilled labor availability [16][20]. - **Fuel Services Production Target**: The annual production target for fuel services remains between 13,000 to 14,000 tons of uranium [17]. - **Westinghouse Investment**: The expected adjusted EBITDA share from Westinghouse is projected to be between 525 million to 580 million USD, influenced by ongoing projects in the Czech Republic [18].

Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, Centrus reported total revenue of $154.5 million, a year-on-year decrease of 18% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 111% [1] - The gross profit for Q2 2025 was $53.9 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64% [1] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was $28.9 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6% [1] Financial Performance Summary Overall Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 2025 was $154.5 million, down 18% year-on-year but up 111% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Gross profit was $53.9 million, up 48% year-on-year and up 64% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Net profit was $28.9 million, down 6% year-on-year but up 6% quarter-on-quarter [1] Business Segment Performance 1. Low-Enriched Uranium Segment - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $125.7 million, down 26% year-on-year but up 145% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Gross profit for this segment was $50.7 million, up 54% year-on-year and up 63% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Sales costs decreased by 45% year-on-year to $75 million [2] 2. Technical Solutions Segment - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $28.8 million, up 48% year-on-year and up 32% quarter-on-quarter [3] - Gross profit for this segment was $3.2 million, down 9% year-on-year but up 2% quarter-on-quarter [6] Order Backlog - As of June 30, 2025, the company had an order backlog of $3.6 billion, extending to 2040 [8] - The low-enriched uranium segment accounted for approximately $2.7 billion of this backlog [8] - The technical solutions segment had an order backlog of about $900 million [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of $2.787 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year, with operating profit of $304 million, up 14%, and net profit of $215 million, up 1% [2] - The company returned $274 million to shareholders in Q2 2025, including $184 million in stock buybacks and $90 million in cash dividends [2] - The company continues to see positive same-store sales growth, with overall sales increasing by 4% year-on-year, driven by a rise in delivery sales [3][4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of $2.787 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year, with operating profit at $304 million (+14%) and net profit at $215 million (+1%) [2] - Total shareholder returns in H1 2025 reached $536 million, comprising $356 million in stock buybacks and $180 million in cash dividends [2] Operational Efficiency - The company reported an operating profit margin of 10.9%, up 1.0 percentage points, and a restaurant profit margin of 16.1%, up 0.6 percentage points [4] - The increase in delivery sales, which accounted for 45% of total sales (+7 percentage points), has led to higher rider costs [4] Store Expansion and Capital Expenditure - The company aims to open 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with capital expenditure targets reduced to approximately $600 million to $700 million [5] - The average investment per store has decreased, with KFC's investment per store dropping from $1.5 million to approximately $1.44 million [5] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to $11.792 billion, $12.349 billion, and $13.013 billion, respectively [6] - The expected net profits for the same period are $947 million, $983 million, and $1.052 billion, respectively [6] - The latest stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19x for 2025, 18x for 2026, and 17x for 2027 [6]

[Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 6 日 [Table_Title] Orano 2025H1 收入同比增长 17.6%至 26.72 亿欧 元，归属于母公司所有者的净利润同比扭亏为盈 至 1.09 亿欧元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►财务业绩情况 1）未完成订单 2025H1，订单额达 12.33 亿欧元，其中 77%用于出口。 2025H1，Orano 的未完成订单额为 330 亿欧元，其中包括 18 亿欧元的换汇影响。这些未完成订单相当于公司六年多的收 入。 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 2）收入 2025H1，Orano 的收入为 26.72 亿欧元，较 2024H1 的 22.72 亿欧元增长 17.6%。按同类基础计算（LFL）同比增长 18.2%。 2025H1，国际客户收入占比为 41.3%，而 2024H1 为 41.4%。 • 采矿业务收入总计 9.13 亿欧元，较 2024H1 增长 14.8%（同比增 17.0% LFL）。该收入受益于 (i) 与两个时期 积压订单分布相符的积极销量效应，但部分被 (i ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3617.60, up by 34.29 points or 0.96%[2] - The CSI 300 Index rose by 32.75 points, reflecting an increase of 0.80% to close at 4103.45[2] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 3.78 points, marking a rise of 0.82%[2] Stock Market Trends - The stock market continues its upward trend with significant capital rotation, particularly in dividend and small-cap stocks[3] - The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index saw modest gains of 0.40% and 0.39%, respectively, indicating a slight cooling in the innovation sector[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index extended its rebound, rising by 0.73% on the day[3] Bond Market Insights - Long-term bond yields showed a downward trend, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields decreasing by 0.40 basis points and 0.05 basis points to 1.70% and 1.92%, respectively[3] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repo of 160.7 billion yuan, net draining 288.5 billion yuan from the market, yet funding rates remained stable[6][7] Commodity Market Highlights - Coking coal futures surged, with the main contract rising by 6.9%, driven by renewed trading enthusiasm in the "anti-involution" theme[4] - The prices of polysilicon and coke also saw significant increases of 3.9% and 3.2%, respectively[4] - The new coal mine safety regulations are expected to restrict non-compliant production capacity, further supporting coal prices[4] Future Outlook - The market is entering a new phase driven by spot fundamentals and specific industrial policies, with "anti-involution" remaining a key theme[6] - The bond market is anticipated to experience a peak in early August, as previous negative sentiments have largely been absorbed[8] - The stock market's recent performance suggests a potential "tail-end" rally, but caution is advised due to underlying uncertainties[9][10]

[Table_Title] 防守反击 [Table_Title2] 类权益月报 [Table_Summary] ►行情回顾：充满惊喜的 7 月 7 月，利好纷至沓来，行情持续走强。7 月 1 日，中央财经委 会议召开，反内卷成为继科技、消费后又一政策主线。7 月 19 日，雅江水电站宣布开工，助推强势行情进一步突破。在基建 行情发生波动后，科技接力上涨。时至 7 月底，市场自发修正 非理性政策预期，行情显著回落。 ►权益行情或将定价不确定性 在 7 月的上涨过程中，市场由"暂无明确利好"，逐渐过渡到 "充分交易利好及预期利好"。同时，资金在 FOMO（怕踏空） 心理下，暂不定价外部不确定性、基本面数据等压力因素。 然而，这些压力因素已不可忽视。一方面，中美"蜜月期" 或渐近尾声。第三轮中美贸易谈判结果不及预期，同时中美 贸易关系的不稳定性已逐渐显性化，体现在美国对中国购买 俄油持反对态度、中国调查英伟达H20芯片安全问题等。另一 方面，7 月 PMI 回落，基本面因素可能决定资金是否追涨。 ►固收+火热，130 元或不是转债价格的归宿 固收+方面，随着转债市场价格逼近 130 元，诸多绝对收益机 构在转债潜在 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, global gold demand increased by 102 tons to 1079 tons, with gold ETF demand rising by 178 tons to 171 tons [1][2] - Total gold supply in Q2 2025 grew by 3% year-on-year, reaching 1249 tons, primarily due to record-high mining output of 909 tons [1][15] - Investment demand for gold surged by 78% year-on-year to 477.2 tons, driven largely by significant inflows into gold ETFs [4][38] Supply Summary - Q2 2025 gold supply reached 1249 tons, a 3% increase year-on-year, with mining output at a record 909 tons [1][15] - Gold recycling in Q2 2025 rose by 4% to 347 tons, maintaining a steady supply despite fluctuations in gold prices [23][25] Demand Summary - Total gold demand in Q2 2025 was 1079 tons, a 10% increase year-on-year but a 17% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2][29] - Jewelry demand fell by 14% year-on-year to 341 tons, marking the lowest level since Q3 2020 [3][31] - Investment demand for gold bars and coins grew by 11% year-on-year to 307 tons, indicating strong investor interest [7][42] - Central bank demand for gold remained robust at 166.5 tons, despite a 21% year-on-year decline [8][50] Jewelry Demand Insights - Q2 2025 saw a 20% year-on-year decline in gold jewelry demand in China, totaling 69 tons, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [3][33] - In India, gold jewelry consumption decreased by 17% to 89 tons, with the first half of 2025 showing the second-lowest demand since 2000 [3][34] Investment Demand Insights - Gold ETF holdings increased by 170 tons in Q2 2025, contrasting with a decrease of 7 tons in the same period last year [4][41] - North American gold ETFs saw a significant increase of 73 tons, while Asian ETFs also reported strong demand [4][41] Central Bank Demand Insights - Central banks collectively purchased 166.5 tons of gold in Q2 2025, a decrease from previous quarters but still above historical averages [8][50] - Poland emerged as the largest buyer, adding 19 tons to its reserves, despite a reduction from earlier purchases [52][51] Industrial Demand Insights - Industrial gold demand slightly decreased by 2% year-on-year to 79 tons, influenced by ongoing trade uncertainties and rising gold prices [9][56] - Demand for gold in electronics fell by 2% to 66 tons, with challenges stemming from tariffs and export restrictions [9][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the bond market may reach its peak moment, becoming a decisive factor in the performance competition in the second half of the year. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of August may be greater, while the situation in the last ten - days needs further observation. With five major positive factors supporting, there is a 10 - 12bp downward space for the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds, and the potential returns are considerable when considering the duration [2][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. July Bond Market: "Unjust Disaster" - The bond market in July went against market expectations. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds started at 1.64% and 1.85% respectively and rose to 1.75% and 2.00% by the end of the month, with an increase of 11bp and 15bp. The main reasons for the divergence between expectations and reality were the over - fermented risk appetite in the stock and commodity markets and the unexpected tightening of the capital market around the tax period [1][10]. - The bond market in July can be divided into three stages: a calm first ten - days, a turbulent middle ten - days, and a late ten - days when negative factors were released. In the late ten - days, affected by factors such as the start of a large - scale infrastructure project and the "anti - involution" trading, the bond market entered an irrational decline [11][12]. - In terms of various bond types, short - term bonds performed better than long - term bonds, and credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds. The yields of various bonds generally increased, and the 30 - year treasury bond had a single - month decline of 2.30%, making July the second - worst month for the bond market this year [15][16][18]. 2. Five Reasons to Be Bullish on the Bond Market in August 2.1. Do Not Underestimate the Change in the US Attitude on Tariff Issues - The result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation may become the main variable for asset pricing again. The US may use tariffs to seek benefits in investment or exports, which could damage global trade relations and create a negative atmosphere for Sino - US negotiations [2][21]. - In the new round of tariff negotiations, the US generally obtained favorable trade terms. This may make the US more aggressive in future Sino - US negotiations. If Sino - US relations deteriorate, it could suppress global and domestic risk preferences, which is beneficial to the bond market [22][24]. 2.2. The Fundamental Situation Weakens Marginally, but the Expectation of Policy Stimulus Retreats - The July PMI data showed that the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, lower than the expected 49.7%. The new orders and production in the manufacturing industry declined, indicating weak demand. The large - scale net purchase of bills by major banks in July and the decline of bill interest rates to near zero may also suggest weak loan demand [25][26]. - The Politburo meeting at the end of July gave an optimistic assessment of the first - half economy, which may make it difficult to introduce short - term "stable growth" policies. If the economic data in the third quarter fluctuates, there may be a time lag before stimulus policies are introduced, which could lead to a decline in risk preferences and be beneficial to the bond market [29]. 2.3. The Suppression of Risk Appetite Caused by "Anti - Involution" Trading Weakens - From July 1st to 25th, affected by "anti - involution" trading, the futures prices of key commodities such as coking coal, coke, and polysilicon increased significantly, and the extreme risk preferences in the market were rapidly boosted, which was the main reason for the sharp adjustment of the bond market [30]. - To suppress speculation, commodity exchanges issued relevant policies at the end of July. The first stage of the general rise in the commodity market may have passed, and the over - risen commodities have entered the price correction stage. The market risk preference has returned to rationality, reducing the resistance to the rise of the bond market [31][32]. 2.4. In Terms of Liquidity, August May Be the Low Point of the Annual Capital Interest Rate - Generally, the capital interest rate in August does not increase significantly compared with July. The natural capital gap in August is not large. Although the net issuance of government bonds may increase, it is offset by the lower tax payment. The MLF maturity scale in August is 3000 billion yuan, and the maturity pressure of repurchase agreements has eased, which is conducive to maintaining a neutral and loose capital interest rate [34][35]. - Historically, the R001 and R007 in August can generally remain stable, and the increase in the capital interest rate usually occurs before the end of the month. After August, the capital interest rate may fluctuate due to factors such as the quarter - end pressure in September and uncertainties in the fourth quarter. Therefore, August may be the low point of the annual capital interest rate [36][37]. 2.5. Pay Attention to the Return of Redeemed Funds and the New Premiums of Insurance "Cost - Reduction" - In July, the continuous redemption of public bond funds by institutions amplified the adjustment of the bond market. However, the redemption pressure may only be within the "institution - fund" circle and has not spread outward. The liability of wealth management products and banks remained stable. For example, wealth management products continued to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit in July [46][49][50]. - If the redeemed funds of funds remain in the inter - bank market, they may flow back to the trading market as the bond market recovers in August, which could push the interest rate down. In addition, due to the adjustment of the insurance product interest rate, the yields of ultra - long - term local bonds and ultra - long - term treasury bonds have risen to around or above the "new cost line" of life insurance, and the ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds may experience an excessive decline in August [50][55][57]. 3. The Bond Market in August May Reach Its Peak Moment: Grasping the Rhythm Is Key - With five major positive factors, the bond market in August may reach its peak moment. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of August are greater, while the situation in the late ten - days needs further observation. From the end of July to the beginning of August, although the bond market entered the recovery stage, institutions were still cautious about the duration [5][59]. - It is recommended to extend the duration as much as possible with active individual bonds within the acceptable risk range. The bond interest tax - payment new rule announced by the Ministry of Finance on August 1st may affect the pricing of treasury bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds in three stages, but it is not a negative factor for the bond market [59][63].