Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry [6] Core Insights - The overall revenue for the company in Q1 2025 reached 21.15 trillion KRW (114.21 billion RMB), marking the highest quarterly revenue in 10 quarters, driven by the inclusion of SK Innovation E&S performance [1][19] - Despite improvements in the battery business, the company faced operating losses due to declining refining profit margins and falling international oil prices [1][19] Financial Performance Summary Q1 2025 Overall Performance - The company reported an operating loss of 446 billion KRW (24.1 million RMB) in Q1 2025 [1][19] Business Segment Performance 1. **Refining Business** - Revenue: 11.92 trillion KRW (643.68 million RMB); Operating profit: 363 billion KRW (19.6 million RMB) [4][19] - Operating profit decreased by 306.1 billion KRW (16.53 million RMB) compared to the previous quarter due to global economic slowdown concerns and OPEC+ production cuts [4] 2. **Petrochemical Business** - Revenue: 2.48 trillion KRW (133.92 million RMB); Operating loss: 1.14 trillion KRW (61.7 million RMB) [5][19] - Continued operating losses due to weak demand for paraxylene (PX) and olefin products [5] 3. **Lubricants Business** - Revenue: 972.2 billion KRW (52.50 million RMB); Operating profit: 121.4 billion KRW (6.56 million RMB) [7][19] - Operating profit decreased by 18.1 billion KRW (977.4 thousand RMB) due to economic slowdown impacts [7] 4. **Exploration & Production (E&P) Business** - Revenue: 383.1 billion KRW (20.69 million RMB); Operating profit: 120.4 billion KRW (6.50 million RMB) [8][19] - Slight revenue growth, but operating profit decreased by 25.4 billion KRW (1.37 million RMB) due to declining sales in Peru [8] 5. **Battery Business** - Revenue: 1.61 trillion KRW (86.94 million RMB); Operating loss: 299.3 billion KRW (16.16 million RMB) [9][19] - Revenue growth driven by increased sales in North America, with operating profit improving by 60.1 billion KRW (3.25 million RMB) compared to the previous quarter [9] 6. **Materials Business** - Revenue: 238 billion KRW (1.29 million RMB); Operating loss: 548 billion KRW (2.96 million RMB) [10][19] - Operating profit increased by 19.3 billion KRW (1.04 million RMB) due to sales growth and reduced one-time costs [10] 7. **SK Innovation E&S** - Revenue: 3.75 trillion KRW (202.5 million RMB); Operating profit: 1.93 trillion KRW (10.43 million RMB) [11][19] - Operating profit increased by 78.9 billion KRW (4.26 million RMB) due to increased urban gas sales driven by winter heating demand [11] Q2 2025 Outlook 1. **Refining Business** - Expected gradual improvement in refining profit margins due to seasonal demand factors [12] 2. **Petrochemical Business** - Anticipated improvement in aromatics spreads due to reduced regional PX supply and new PTA facilities coming online [13] 3. **Lubricants Business** - Expected to maintain stable profitability due to strong demand for high-quality base oils [14] 4. **Exploration & Production Business** - Ongoing discussions for drilling more production wells following successful drilling operations [16] 5. **Battery Business** - Anticipated continued growth in North American sales driven by electric vehicle battery demand [17] 6. **Materials Business** - Expected significant sales growth due to increased sales to major customers and new product launches [17] 7. **SK Innovation E&S** - Plans to ensure stable and competitive LNG supply through various channels [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a 14.52% year-on-year decline in revenue due to industry demand downturn and proactive business structure adjustments. Direct sales revenue dropped significantly by 58.75% to 4.277 billion yuan, impacting overall revenue. However, retail and engineering channels showed robust growth, with combined revenue of 23.562 billion yuan, up 8.10% year-on-year, accounting for 83.98% of total revenue [3][4] - The company has successfully optimized its sales channels, with the C-end revenue reaching 10.209 billion yuan, up 9.92% year-on-year, and the small B-end revenue at 13.354 billion yuan, up 6.74% year-on-year. The growth in these segments has mitigated the decline in direct sales [3][4] - The company reported a significant improvement in cash flow, with operating cash flow reaching 3.457 billion yuan, a 64.39% increase year-on-year, indicating successful channel transformation and improved operational quality [6] Financial Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 28.056 billion yuan in 2024, down 14.52% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 108 million yuan, down 95.24% year-on-year. The operating cash flow was 3.457 billion yuan, showing a significant improvement [5][10] - For 2025, the company is projected to generate revenue of 28.946 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.347 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial recovery in profitability [10][13] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 18.50 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 4.419 billion yuan [5] Growth Prospects - The company is accelerating its overseas business expansion, with foreign revenue reaching 877 million yuan, up 24.73% year-on-year. The establishment of factories in Malaysia, the USA, and Saudi Arabia is expected to enhance its global supply chain and revenue growth [7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 28.946 billion yuan, 31.158 billion yuan, and 33.739 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to recover to 1.347 billion yuan, 1.812 billion yuan, and 2.268 billion yuan [8][10]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - Overseas cloud companies continue to show strong spending on computing power, with Q1 2025 financial reports from major firms like Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon indicating robust revenue growth and significant capital expenditures (CAPEX) [10][19][22] - Domestic internet giants are ramping up their capital expenditures significantly, with Tencent's CAPEX expected to reach over 100 billion yuan, Alibaba announcing a 380 billion yuan investment over three years, and ByteDance planning a 150 billion yuan budget for 2025, indicating a surge in demand for computing power in China [11][24][25] - The domestic computing power sector is experiencing a turning point, with positive financial results from companies like Cambricon and Haiguang, suggesting a substantial increase in demand for domestic chips [11][36] Summary by Sections Overseas Cloud Companies - Alphabet reported Q1 2025 revenue of $90.234 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, with CAPEX of $17.2 billion [10] - Microsoft reported Q3 FY2025 revenue of $70.1 billion, a 13% increase, with CAPEX of $21.4 billion [10] - Meta's Q1 revenue was $42.31 billion, up 16% year-over-year, with a net profit of $16.64 billion, a 35% increase [19] - Amazon's Q1 revenue reached $155.667 billion, an 8.62% increase, with a net profit of $17.127 billion, a 64.19% increase [22] Domestic Internet Giants - Tencent's CAPEX for 2025 is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan, while Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan over three years, and ByteDance's budget for 2025 is set at 150 billion yuan [11][24] - The increase in capital expenditure is expected to boost demand across the computing power supply chain, including intelligent computing centers, servers, and optical modules [11][24] Domestic Computing Power Sector - Cambricon reported a significant turnaround in Q1 2025, achieving profitability with a revenue increase of 4230.22% to 1.111 billion yuan [36] - The upgrade of the Ascend 910C architecture is seen as a pivotal moment for domestic computing power, with expectations of a substantial rise in demand for domestic chips [11][36]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [3]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company reported net sales of $1.077 billion, a decrease of 20.87% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to a decline in energy storage product prices, although specialty product sales increased by 11% [1][4]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $267 million, down from $291 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a decrease of $24 million [9]. - The company’s lithium salt sales volume was 44,000 tons in Q1 2025, down from 49,000 tons in the previous quarter, with net sales for lithium salts at $525 million, a year-over-year decline of 35% [4][5]. - The effective tax rate for Q1 2025 was 21.0%, significantly higher than 2.2% in the same quarter of 2024, influenced by changes in geographic income structure [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 net sales were $1.077 billion, down from $1.361 billion in Q1 2024, a decrease of 20.87% [1]. - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was $156 million, a significant increase of 301.4% year-over-year [1]. - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was $19.76 million, compared to a loss of $180 million in the same quarter last year [1]. Business Segment Performance - Lithium Salt Segment: Q1 2025 sales volume was 44,000 tons, with net sales of $525 million, reflecting a 35% year-over-year decline [4]. - Specialty Products: Q1 2025 net sales were $321 million, a 2% increase year-over-year, driven by an 11% increase in sales volume [5]. - Ketjen Segment: Q1 2025 net sales were $231 million, a 5% decrease year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA of $39 million, up 1700% from the previous year [6]. 2025 Outlook - The company expects capital expenditures for 2025 to be between $700 million and $800 million, a reduction of over 50% from 2024 [7]. - The projected lithium salt production for 2025 is expected to grow between 0% to 10% compared to 2024, with a focus on maintaining existing assets and selective growth projects [7].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [6]. Core Insights - The North American Lithium (NAL) project experienced a 15% decrease in lithium concentrate production to 43,261 dry tons in Q1 2025, while sales volume dropped significantly by 59% to 27,030 dry tons [2][3]. - The average realized selling price (FOB) increased by 8% to 1,142 AUD/dry ton (approximately 710 USD/dry ton), positively influenced by sales agreements with Piedmont Lithium [4]. - The unit operating cost (FOB) rose by 7% to 1,374 AUD/dry ton, but in USD terms, it decreased by 1% to 830 USD/dry ton due to operational efficiencies [5][7]. Production and Sales Summary - In Q1 2025, the ore mined was 322,407 wet tons, reflecting a 13% decrease from the previous quarter, primarily due to strategic decisions to avoid additional processing costs [1]. - The lithium recovery rate was 69%, with a record recovery rate of 72% achieved in March 2025 through improved operational processes [1]. - The company anticipates a stronger start in Q2 2025, with sales expected to be distributed in a 30:70 ratio between Q1 and Q2 to leverage future pricing advantages [3]. Financial Performance - NAL's revenue for Q1 2025 was 31 million AUD, a 56% decline compared to the previous quarter, attributed to lower sales volume, although the increase in average selling price partially mitigated this impact [9]. - As of March 31, 2025, the cash and cash equivalents balance was 88.9 million AUD, down from 110.4 million AUD at the end of 2024, primarily due to operational losses and capital expenditures [9]. - The company maintains a cash flow balance, with a net cash outflow from operating activities of 6 million AUD for the quarter [9]. Other Significant Developments - Sayona reiterated its production target for FY2025 at 190,000 to 210,000 dry tons, with unit sales operating costs projected between 1,150 and 1,300 AUD/dry ton [10]. - The proposed merger with Piedmont Lithium has made significant progress, receiving regulatory approvals from various authorities, with completion expected in mid-2025 pending shareholder approval [10].

Global Market Overview - The report indicates that most global markets are experiencing a rebound from oversold conditions, but this rebound is expected to reach a plateau as negative factors persist, leading to a potential space for future corrections [1][3] - The US stock market continues its rebound, with the TAMAMA Technology Index's P/E ratio at 29.8, approaching a high range, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio has risen to 39.2, nearing 40 [1][11] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has increased to 35.26, exceeding historical averages, suggesting that the US market may face further corrections in the medium term [1][11] US Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw increases of 2.92%, 3.42%, and 3% respectively over the past week [3][11] - The report highlights that the industrial sector within the S&P 500 had a significant increase of 4.32%, while the energy sector experienced a decline of 0.65% [11] European Market Performance - Major European indices such as the DAX, CAC40, and FTSE 100 have shown substantial rebounds, with the DAX rising by 3.8% [2][8] - The report anticipates that the short-term rebound in European markets will diminish, with potential for increased volatility [1][8] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and related indices have also rebounded, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 2.38% and the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 5.24% [3][24] - The report suggests caution in pursuing high valuations in Hong Kong stocks, recommending a focus on sectors with lower valuations and better fundamentals [1][39] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are experiencing mixed performance, with indices like the Istanbul ISE100 showing a significant decline of 3.75% [10] - The report notes that emerging markets may continue to face volatility due to economic fundamentals and policy uncertainties [1][10] Key Economic Data - Japan's unemployment rate for March 2025 was reported at 2.5%, slightly higher than the previous value of 2.4% [40] - The Eurozone's unemployment rate remained stable at 6.2%, while the CPI growth rate for April 2025 was reported at 2.2% [40][42]

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 14.21, with a median of 13.36 and a maximum of 30.60 for the Shanghai Composite Index[10] - The PE (TTM) excluding financials and oil & gas is 21.22, indicating a higher valuation when these sectors are excluded[7] - The A-share market's risk premium rate is currently at 3.78%[16] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 9.94, with a median of 10.23 and a maximum of 22.67[59] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 21.07, reflecting a significant valuation compared to other sectors[60] U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 has a current PE (TTM) of 24.83, with a median of 20.82 and a maximum of 41.99[80] - The NASDAQ Index has a current PE (TTM) of 36.57, indicating a high valuation relative to historical averages[88] Sector-Specific Valuations - Non-bank financials, metals, and food & beverage sectors in A-shares are currently at historically low PE levels, while sectors like computing and steel are at historically high PE levels[21] - The median PB (LF) for banks is 0.70, indicating a low valuation compared to historical standards[99]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Volume-Price Industry Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on six dimensions of volume-price factors, including momentum, trading volatility, turnover rate, long-short comparison, volume-price divergence, and volume-amplitude alignment. These factors are tested on a single-factor basis at the monthly frequency for the CSI Level-1 industries, resulting in 11 effective and logically strong industry factors[6] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Construct 11 volume-price factors based on the six dimensions mentioned above 2. At the end of each month, select the top five industries with the highest composite factor scores from the CSI Level-1 industries (excluding "Comprehensive" and "Comprehensive Finance") 3. Apply equal weighting within factors and equal weighting across industries to form the final strategy[7] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong logical consistency and effectiveness in identifying outperforming industries[6] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Second-Order Momentum - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) of the closing price relative to its historical mean[7] - **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{Second-Order Momentum} = \text{Close}_t \cdot \text{EWMA}(\text{Close}_{t-\text{window1}:t}) - \text{mean}(\text{Close}_{t-\text{window1}:t}) $ - Parameters: "Close" represents the closing price, "window1" defines the lookback period[7] 2. Factor Name: Momentum Term Spread - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the difference in momentum over two different time windows[7] - **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{Momentum Term Spread} = \frac{\text{Close}_t - \text{Close}_{t-\text{window1}}}{\text{Close}_{t-\text{window1}}} - \frac{\text{Close}_t - \text{Close}_{t-\text{window2}}}{\text{Close}_{t-\text{window2}}} $ - Parameters: "window1" and "window2" represent two different lookback periods[7] 3. Factor Name: Trading Amount Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the standard deviation of trading amounts over a specific window[7] - **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{Trading Amount Volatility} = -\text{STD}(\text{Amount}) $ - Parameters: "Amount" refers to the trading amount, and "STD" is the standard deviation operator[7] 4. Factor Name: Volume-Price Divergence Covariance - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the covariance between ranked closing prices and ranked volumes over a specific window[7] - **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{Volume-Price Divergence Covariance} = \text{rank}(\text{covariance}[\text{rank}(\text{Close}), \text{rank}(\text{Volume}), \text{window}]) $ - Parameters: "Close" represents the closing price, "Volume" represents the trading volume, and "window" defines the lookback period[7] 5. Factor Name: Volume-Amplitude Alignment - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the correlation between ranked volumes and ranked price ranges over a specific window[7] - **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{Volume-Amplitude Alignment} = \text{correlation}[\text{rank}(\text{Volume}_{i-1}), \text{rank}(\text{High}_i - \text{Low}_i), \text{window}] $ - Parameters: "High" and "Low" represent the highest and lowest prices, respectively, and "window" defines the lookback period[7] --- Backtesting Results of the Model 1. Volume-Price Industry Rotation Strategy - **Cumulative Return (2010-2025)**: 694.50%[9] - **Cumulative Excess Return over Equal-Weighted Industry Portfolio**: 605.20%[9] - **April 2025 Monthly Return**: -1.59%[9] - **April 2025 Excess Return over Equal-Weighted Industry Portfolio**: 0.81%[9]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 3 日 [Table_Title] 第一量子 2025Q1 铜产量同比减少 0.90%至 9.97 万 吨，正在等待官方通知允许其出口储存在 Punta Rincón 的铜精矿 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 生产经营情况 1）铜 公司 2025Q1 铜产量为 9.97 万吨，同比减少 0.90%，环比减少 10.66%。环比下降主要原因是 Sentinel 铜矿产量下降， Kansanshi 铜矿和 Sentinel 铜矿受到赞比亚季节性降雨的影响， 但排水和泵送解决方案均能有效应对。 公司 2025Q1 铜销量为 10.20 万吨，同比增长 0.18%，环比减少 8.65%。 2025Q1 铜 C1 现金成本为 1.95 美元/磅，同比减少 3.47%，环 比增长 16.07%。环比增长反映了铜产量下降以及赞比亚员工 和维护成本的上升，但强劲的黄金副产品收益部分抵消了这些 影响。 2025Q1 铜总维持成本（AISC）为 2.90 美元/磅，同比增长 1.75% ...

盈利预期期限结构因子历史表现良好，走势稳定性高。 将盈利预期期限结构"动量 ff"因子与传统分析师预期 调升因子合成后，得到的"合成动量 ff"因子走势进一步改 善，兼具高收益与稳定性。 ► 选股组合表现 在沪深 300、中证 500、中证 800、中证 1000 内分别选择 "合成动量 ff"因子值排名前 50、50、100、100 名的股票， 构成选股组合，组合历史表现良好。 证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 2 日 [Table_Title] 前四个月全部组合跑赢基准——盈利预期期限结构选股月报 202505 [Table_Summary] ► 盈利预期期限结构因子 分析师在某一时点会对上市公司未来多年的盈利做出预 测，我们将预期盈利随未来年度变化的趋势称为盈利预期期 限结构。 2025 年 4 月，沪深 300 选股组合、中证 800 选股组合跑 输基准，超额收益分别为-0.57%、-0.02%；中证 500 选股组 合、中证 1000 选股组合跑赢基准，超额收益分别为 0.73%、 1.13%。 2025 年前 4 个月，沪深 300、中证 500、中证 ...