电力设备及新能源周报 20250615 全球动力电池装车量同比增长，SNEC 展多厂商发布高效率组件产品 2025 年 06 月 15 日 ➢ 本周（20250609-20250613）板块行情 电力设备与新能源板块：本周下跌 0.46%，涨跌幅排名第 17，弱于上证指数。 本周核电指数涨幅最大，工控自动化跌幅最大。核电指数上涨 8.43%，太阳能 指数上涨 0.23%，锂电池指数下跌 0.40%，风力发电指数下跌 0.57%，新能源 汽车指数下跌 0.80%，储能指数下跌 1.25%，工控自动化下跌 1.29%。 ➢ 新能源车：2025 年 1-4 月全球动力电池装车量同比增长 40.2% ➢ 风险提示：政策不达预期、行业竞争加剧致价格超预期下降等。 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 根据 SNE Research 最新数据，2025 年 1-4 月，全球动力电池装车量达 308.5 GWh，同比增长 40.2%。从装机量来看，宁德时代以 117.6 GWh 的绝 对优势稳居榜首；比亚迪以 53.4GWh 紧随其后；LG 新能源以 31.4 GWh 位 列第三。从市场份额来看，宁德时代市占率 38.1%，比亚迪 ...

有色金属周报 20250615 地缘冲突升级，贵金属价格走强 2025 年 06 月 15 日 ➢ 本周（06/09-06/13）上证综指下跌-0.25%，沪深 300 指数下跌-0.25%，SW有 色指数上涨 3.35%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金变动+3.65%，COMEX 白银变动+0.66%。 工业金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动+2.10%、-0.24%、-1.35%、 +0.94%、-2.45%、+1.63%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动- 2.92%、-13.54%、-4.36%、-5.80%、-1.28%、-7.38%。 ➢ 工业金属：关税调整期市场抢出口仍持续，叠加矿山大幅减产，看好工业金属价 格表现。铜方面，矿端依旧紧张，本周 SMM 进口铜精矿指数（周）报-44.75 美元/干 吨，环比减少 1.46 美元/干吨。艾芬豪发布最新的 2025 年 Kamoa-Kakula 铜产量指引 量为 37-42 万金属吨，较年初指引下降了 28%。中矿资源宣布 Tsumeb 铜冶炼厂已临 时暂停铜冶炼业务。需求端本周SMM铜线缆企业开工率76.31%，环比增长0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., and Jiuli Special Steel [3][4]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a clear seasonal downturn, with both production and demand declining, leading to a decrease in steel prices. The cost structure is shifting downward, which may improve immediate profit margins [3][4]. - The report highlights that the recent imposition of a 50% tariff on various steel appliances by the U.S. is expected to have limited impact on overall steel demand, although future policy developments could introduce uncertainties [3][4]. - The report suggests that the potential for production adjustments in crude steel is increasing due to weak domestic demand and external uncertainties, alongside a more relaxed supply of raw materials [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of June 13, steel prices have decreased, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,070 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw price declines [1][9][10]. Production and Inventory - Total steel production for the week was 8.59 million tons, a decrease of 215,300 tons from the previous week. Social inventory of major steel products fell by 36,300 tons to 9.26 million tons [2][3]. Profitability - Steel margins have improved slightly, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins increasing by 26 CNY/ton, 32 CNY/ton, and 21 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: - General Steel: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - Special Steel: CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., Xianglou New Materials - Pipe Materials: Jiuli Special Steel, Wujin Stainless Steel, Youfa Group - High-Temperature Alloy: Fushun Special Steel [3][4]. Raw Material Market - Domestic iron ore prices are stable with slight declines, while imported iron ore prices have decreased. Scrap steel prices remained unchanged [1][28].

石化周报 以伊冲突升级，布油突破 75 美元 2025 年 06 月 15 日 ➢ 以伊冲突升级，布油突破 75 美元。6 月 12 日，美国位于伊朗打击范围内的 美国大使馆被要求召开紧急应变会议，命令部分工作人员离开驻巴格达大使馆， 并允许军人家属离开中东；6 月 13 日，以色列对伊朗发动袭击，且同日伊朗领 导人宣布不再计划参加原定于周日在阿曼举行的与美国的核谈判；6 月 14 日凌 晨，伊朗对以色列做出了回应，向以发射了多轮导弹。在地缘冲突的影响下，油 价本周大幅上涨，目前布油价格已突破 75 美元/桶。短期来看，由于中东地缘冲 突和美伊谈判暂停，叠加夏季是原油消费的旺季，油价短期下跌空间较小，但 OPEC+计划 5-7 月连续 3 个月增产 41.1 万桶/日，同时市场预期后续 OPEC+的 增产行动可能会持续，因此建议持续关注地缘演变和 OPEC+的实际产量情况。 ➢ 美元指数下降；布油价格上涨；东北亚 LNG 到岸价格上涨。截至 6 月 13 日，美元指数收于 98.15，周环比-1.06 个百分点。1）原油：布伦特原油期货结 算价为 74.23 美元/桶，周环比+11.67%；WTI 期货结算价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the defense and military industry, suggesting that the military trade market may become a new growth point for the industry [10]. Core Insights - The international military trade landscape is undergoing significant changes due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, with China poised to strengthen its position in the global military industry [1][2]. - China is transitioning from a "follower" to a "leader" in military trade, with increasing exports and a focus on high-tech, high-value products [3][4]. - The report highlights the growing demand for advanced military equipment driven by recent conflicts and increased defense budgets in various regions [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Geopolitical Conflicts and Global Military Trade Dynamics - The report discusses the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the India-Pakistan tensions, which are reshaping military power dynamics and trade patterns [2][13]. - Global military expenditure has entered a growth phase, with an estimated $2.72 trillion in 2024, marking a 9.4% increase year-on-year, the largest since the end of the Cold War [2][18]. 2. Country Analysis: China's Transition to a Leader - China's military exports are primarily focused on aircraft, accounting for 29% of total exports, with Pakistan being the largest recipient, purchasing 48% of China's total export value over the past decade [3][31]. - The report notes that China has significantly reduced its military imports, with a drop from 4.3% of global imports in 2015 to 0.2% in 2024, while its exports are shifting towards high-tech products [4][28]. 3. Development Opportunities in China's Military Trade - The report identifies a potential turning point for China's military trade, driven by international demand and China's technological capabilities [4][5]. - Key investment opportunities are highlighted in various sectors, including radar systems, guided weapons, drones, military aircraft, and armored vehicles, with specific companies recommended for investment [5][8]. 4. Global Military Trade Landscape - The U.S. remains the dominant player in global military trade, with a 39% share of exports, followed by Russia and France [21][22]. - The report emphasizes the diversification of global military imports, with Saudi Arabia and India being the largest importers, while China's import share has been declining [28][29]. 5. Key Companies and Sectors to Watch - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in radar systems, guided weapons, drones, military aircraft, and naval vessels, indicating a robust growth potential in these areas [5][8].

Group 1 - The report highlights the recovery of valuations in the Hong Kong stock market, driven by increased liquidity and growth potential, breaking the previous undervaluation trend. The average daily trading volume has reached HKD 124.1 billion, with significant net inflows from southbound funds [1][10][12] - The report indicates that the top ten Chinese tech giants listed in Hong Kong account for approximately 34% of the market capitalization, contributing to the growth potential of the Hong Kong market [1][14] - The report identifies key sectors of interest for investment in Hong Kong, including technology, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and banking, with a focus on new economy companies [1][15] Group 2 - The report analyzes the performance of the Changcheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Value Select Multi-Strategy Fund (007132), which has outperformed the Hang Seng Index with an annualized excess return of 5.54% since June 2019 [2][20] - The fund's investment strategy is concentrated in high-growth sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), pharmaceuticals, and advanced manufacturing, with the top five sectors accounting for about 90% of the fund's holdings [2][27] - The fund manager, Qu Shaojie, has extensive experience in managing Hong Kong investments, focusing on long-term holdings of fundamentally strong companies and emphasizing the alignment of valuation with profit growth [3][42] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the fund's buy-and-hold strategy, with a low turnover rate of approximately 180% over the past three years, indicating a stable investment style [2][38] - The fund's top holdings include companies with strong performance and growth potential, such as Pop Mart, which has shown significant returns due to its unique business model and consumer demand [2][30] - The report notes that the fund's holdings are currently valued below the overall market level, suggesting potential for significant appreciation as market valuations improve [2][34][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company plans to invest 250 million yuan to acquire a 10% stake in Yizhi Electronics, which has a pre-investment valuation of 2.25 billion yuan [1] - Yizhi Electronics focuses on high-end computing chips, specializing in the research, design, and sales of processors for servers and workstations, and has developed two series of products [1][2] - The company has a strong customer base and has established solid partnerships with several well-known GPU developers, enhancing its capabilities in AI, cloud computing, and edge computing [2] - The subsidiary, Haixi Technology, aims to integrate AI infrastructure and services, supporting Yizhi Electronics in reaching downstream customers more effectively [3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3 billion yuan in 2025, 3.33 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.61 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 208 million yuan, 284 million yuan, and 328 million yuan [4][5] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 41x, 30x, and 26x respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's earnings growth [4][5]

止跌回稳定调行业，静待投资端变化 地产行业2025年中期投资策略 民生地产团队 2025年6月12日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 * 01 摘要 地产篇：房地产市场止跌回稳效果显现 行业整体:"稳楼市"主旋律或将贯穿全年，城中村改造及收储有望下半年加速落地 • 政策端层面，多次中央会议为房地产政策定下止跌回稳基调；需求端层面，因城施策释放刚性及改善性需求；投资端层面，收储专项债加速落 地，城中村改造实现突破；供给端层面， "好房子"标准逐渐清晰，从有到优 新房二手房销售：新房销售同比降幅有望收窄，二手房热度或仍将持续 物业篇：行业筑底，静待花开 • 基础物业服务方面，管理规模增速放缓，物业费变化较为稳定；增值服务方面，非业主增值回归理性，社区增值分化凸显；财务表现方面，增 收不增利现象突出，业务毛利率趋同，对母公司依赖持续降低 REITs篇：行业扩容提速，消费、保障房类业绩稳定 • 常态化发行提速，REITs底层资产范围扩大；2025年以来REITs收益率优于股债市场，波动性相对稳定；板块分化较大，保障房、消费REITs相 对稳定 风险提示：调控政策收紧风险，预售模式变化风险，房价大幅下跌风 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for key companies in the smart glasses industry, including GoerTek, Lante Optics, Sunny Optical Technology, Espressif Technology, and others [5][6]. Core Insights - Smart glasses are identified as one of the most promising carriers for AI large models, with the potential for significant transformation in human-computer interaction due to advancements in AI capabilities [1][11]. - The market consensus on AI glasses has evolved, particularly with the launch of RayBan Meta, which combines hardware, AI functionality, and user-friendly features, achieving sales of over 1.4 million units in 2024 [2][20]. - The integration of optical display modules is crucial for the evolution of smart glasses towards augmented reality (AR) applications, with a focus on lightweight and high-performance optical components [3][23]. Summary by Sections Smart Glasses: AI First, Exploring AR - The report discusses the transition of AI from research to application, highlighting the increasing importance of multi-modal interactions, including text, images, and voice [11][13]. - Smart glasses are positioned as a suitable platform for AI applications due to their proximity to key sensory organs, enabling seamless interaction with AI [16][19]. Optical Waveguide and Micro LED as Core Bottlenecks - The report identifies the challenges in optical module manufacturing, emphasizing the need for lightweight and high-performance solutions to facilitate mass production of AR glasses [3][34]. - The combination of diffraction waveguides and Micro LED technology is seen as a potential solution for enhancing the display and user experience of AR glasses [3][39]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various segments within the smart glasses industry, including brands, solution providers, and optical component manufacturers, highlighting companies like Xiaomi, GoerTek, and Lante Optics as key players [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of SoC processors for AI glasses and optical components for AR glasses, indicating a clear distinction in hardware requirements between the two types [26][28].

深度学习因子月报 Meta_Master 因子 5 月实现超额收益 3.9% 2025 年 06 月 11 日 ➢ 5 月深度学习选股组合总体录得正向超额收益。DL_EM_Dynamic 因子在中 证 1000 中 RankIC 均值 12.1%, 超额收益 3.5%，Meta_RiskControl 因子在全 A 中均值 RankIC12.8%，全 A 多头组合相对中证 800 超额收益 2.7%， Meta_Master 因子周度 RankIC 均值 14.7%，全 A 多头组合相对中证 800 超额 收益 3.9%。 ➢ DL_EM_Dynamic 因子表现跟踪：5 月 RankIC12.1%，指数增强组合相对 于中证 1000 超额收益 0.6%，今年超额收益 10.4%。因子介绍：采用矩阵分解 算法从基金选股网络中提取股票的内在属性，分解出基金和股票的内在属性矩 阵。将这些内在属性与 LSTM 生成的因子表示进行拼接，进一步股票静态的内在 属性转为动态内在属性，构建股票的动态市场状态因子，共同输入到 MLP 中， 可增强模型表现。 ➢ Meta_RiskControl 因子表现跟踪：5 月 Rank ...